'Who are you today?' Problems of identity in psychiatry

Our attributes change. Sometimes they are changed so dramatically (for instance by organic brain disease, traumatic brain injury or psychiatric disease) that it is hard to see any significant continuity with the premorbid person. Sometimes this can have important ethical and legal consequences, but the problems are often ignored. This article highlights some of the difficulties.

Interventions outside the workplace for reducing sedentary behaviour in adults under 60 years of age

BACKGROUND

Adults spend a majority of their time outside the workplace being sedentary. Large amounts of sedentary behaviour increase the risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and both all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality.

OBJECTIVES

Primary • To assess effects on sedentary time of non-occupational interventions for reducing sedentary behaviour in adults under 60 years of age Secondary • To describe other health effects and adverse events or unintended consequences of these interventions • To determine whether specific components of interventions are associated with changes in sedentary behaviour • To identify if there are any differential effects of interventions based on health inequalities (e.g. age, sex, income, employment) SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SportDiscus, and ClinicalTrials.gov on 14 April 2020. We checked references of included studies, conducted forward citation searching, and contacted authors in the field to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster RCTs of interventions outside the workplace for community-dwelling adults aged 18 to 59 years. We included studies only when the intervention had a specific aim or component to change sedentary behaviour.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full-text articles for study eligibility. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We contacted trial authors for additional information or data when required. We examined the following primary outcomes: device-measured sedentary time, self-report sitting time, self-report TV viewing time, and breaks in sedentary time.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 13 trials involving 1770 participants, all undertaken in high-income countries. Ten were RCTs and three were cluster RCTs. The mean age of study participants ranged from 20 to 41 years. A majority of participants were female. All interventions were delivered at the individual level. Intervention components included personal monitoring devices, information or education, counselling, and prompts to reduce sedentary behaviour. We judged no study to be at low risk of bias across all domains. Seven studies were at high risk of bias for blinding of outcome assessment due to use of self-report outcomes measures. Primary outcomes Interventions outside the workplace probably show little or no difference in device-measured sedentary time in the short term (mean difference (MD) -8.36 min/d, 95% confidence interval (CI) -27.12 to 10.40; 4 studies; I² = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether interventions reduce device-measured sedentary time in the medium term (MD -51.37 min/d, 95% CI -126.34 to 23.59; 3 studies; I² = 84%; very low-certainty evidence) We are uncertain whether interventions outside the workplace reduce self-report sitting time in the short term (MD -64.12 min/d, 95% CI -260.91 to 132.67; I² = 86%; very low-certainty evidence). Interventions outside the workplace may show little or no difference in self-report TV viewing time in the medium term (MD -12.45 min/d, 95% CI -50.40 to 25.49; 2 studies; I² = 86%; low-certainty evidence) or in the long term (MD 0.30 min/d, 95% CI -0.63 to 1.23; 2 studies; I² = 0%; low-certainty evidence). It was not possible to pool the five studies that reported breaks in sedentary time given the variation in definitions used. Secondary outcomes Interventions outside the workplace probably have little or no difference on body mass index in the medium term (MD -0.25 kg/m², 95% CI -0.48 to -0.01; 3 studies; I² = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence). Interventions may have little or no difference in waist circumference in the medium term (MD -2.04 cm, 95% CI -9.06 to 4.98; 2 studies; I² = 65%; low-certainty evidence). Interventions probably have little or no difference on glucose in the short term (MD -0.18 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.30 to -0.06; 2 studies; I² = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence) and medium term (MD -0.08 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.05; 2 studies, I² = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence) Interventions outside the workplace may have little or no difference in device-measured MVPA in the short term (MD 1.99 min/d, 95% CI -4.27 to 8.25; 4 studies; I² = 23%; low-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether interventions improve device-measured MVPA in the medium term (MD 6.59 min/d, 95% CI -7.35 to 20.53; 3 studies; I² = 70%; very low-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether interventions outside the workplace improve self-reported light-intensity PA in the short-term (MD 156.32 min/d, 95% CI 34.34 to 278.31; 2 studies; I² = 79%; very low-certainty evidence). Interventions may have little or no difference on step count in the short-term (MD 226.90 steps/day, 95% CI -519.78 to 973.59; 3 studies; I² = 0%; low-certainty evidence) No data on adverse events or symptoms were reported in the included studies.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Interventions outside the workplace to reduce sedentary behaviour probably lead to little or no difference in device-measured sedentary time in the short term, and we are uncertain if they reduce device-measured sedentary time in the medium term. We are uncertain whether interventions outside the workplace reduce self-reported sitting time in the short term. Interventions outside the workplace may result in little or no difference in self-report TV viewing time in the medium or long term. The certainty of evidence is moderate to very low, mainly due to concerns about risk of bias, inconsistent findings, and imprecise results. Future studies should be of longer duration; should recruit participants from varying age, socioeconomic, or ethnic groups; and should gather quality of life, cost-effectiveness, and adverse event data. We strongly recommend that standard methods of data preparation and analysis are adopted to allow comparison of the effects of interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour.

The optimal time to test for sero-reversion in HIV-exposed uninfected infants: the later the better?

OBJECTIVES

HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants are tested for loss of maternal antibody (sero-reversion) at 18 months of age. Highly sensitive fourth-generation antigen/antibody assays can detect very low levels of antibody, leading to retesting. We audited serological screening outcomes in HEU infants at two National Health Service (NHS) Trusts.

METHODS

HEU infants born between January 2013 and August 2016 were identified via case records. Data collected included gestation; age at testing; test results and assay type.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-two infants were identified, of whom 21 were excluded from analysis. One hundred and one (83%) were born at term and 20 (17%) preterm (< 37/40 weeks of gestation), and the median age at first serology was 19.1 [interquartile range (IQR) 18.1; 21.4] months. Initial serology was positive in 10 of 121 infants (8.3%), and the median age of these 10 infants was 18.3 (IQR 18.1; 18.8) months, whereas those with negative serology (n = 111) had a median age of 19.2 (IQR 18.1; 21.5) months (P = 0.12). All infants with positive HIV serology were born at term. Seven of 10 infants had reactive serology on two fourth-generation assays. Subsequent serology was available for eight of 10 infants, with a median age of 21.3 months. Five of the eight (63%) were negative. One was reactive but HIV RNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was negative, and one was reactive on screening but negative on confirmatory testing. The remaining child was still seropositive at 24.7 months but had a non-reactive result at 29.4 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, 8.3% of HEU infants required repeat testing to confirm loss of antibody. Delaying testing until 22 months of age reduces retesting to < 2%, with associated resource and emotional implications. Positive serology at 22 months should prompt an HIV RNA PCR to exclude infection.

A novel exploration of the support needs of people initiating insulin pump therapy using a social network approach: a longitudinal mixed-methods study

AIMS

To establish what practical and emotional means of support are required on initiation of insulin pump therapy and how needs change over time, using GENIE, a social network intervention.

METHODS

The study's longitudinal design used semi-structured interviews, surveys (PAID, CLARKE) and HbA_1c values at time of pump initiation, and at 3 and 6 months. Interviews used GENIE to capture participants' expectations and experiences of pump therapy and associated support and resources. Thematic analysis was used with sequential, time-ordered matrices.

RESULTS

A total of 16 adults undertook 47 interviews. A total of 94 services, resources and activities were acquired, while tally, frequency and value of network members increased over time. The novelty of pump therapy impacted on participants' self-management needs. Key themes included: 1) the independent nature of managing diabetes; 2) overcoming the challenges and illness burden associated with pump use; 3) the need for responsive and tailored emotional and practical support; and 4) useful resources when incorporating pump therapy. GENIE was thought to be novel and beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

A social network approach determined what resources and support people with diabetes require when incorporating a new health technology. Visualisation of support networks using concentric circles enabled people to consider and mobilise support and engage in new activities as their needs changed. The novelty of pump therapy creates new illness-related work, but mobilisation of personally valued flexible, tailored support can improve the process of adaptation.

P374 Prediction of an adverse cardiovascular response to physical exercise from resting echocardiography imaging in young adults with suboptimal blood pressure

Funding Acknowledgements

British Heart Foundation (BHF) grants (PG/13/58/30397)

Background

Young adults with mildly elevated blood pressure are less likely to engage with physical activity. This may be because early hypertension alters myocardial response to moderate exercise, leading to greater perceived exertion and lower levels of enjoyment. As atrial and ventricular function are closely coupled we investigated whether subclinical atrial changes at rest may identify this myocardial response.

Purpose

To identify whether subclinical changes in left atrial function at rest predict response to exercise by performing left atrial deep-phenotyping in a cohort of young adults with a range of blood pressures.

Methods

Seventy-one full-term born young adults (25.25 ± 5.13 years) were enrolled in the Young Adult Cardiovascular Health sTudy (YACHT) to undergo baseline clinical and cardiovascular phenotyping including detailed blood pressure measurement. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing combined with echocardiography imaging was performed to assess the myocardial response to physical exercise at 40%, 60% and 80% of peak exercise load for all participants. Left ventricular ejection fraction and global longitudinal strain were measured from an apical four chamber view at each exercise load, and resting left atrial phasic function was assessed by conventional and speckle tracking echocardiography from apical four and two chamber views (figure 1).

Results

In this young cohort with a range of blood pressure (120.9 ± 12.96/70.85 ± 9.78 mmHg), resting left atrial reservoir and conduit function, but not left atrial structural measures, showed good correlation with left ventricular ejection fraction and global longitudinal strain during 40%, 60% and 80% of peak exercise. The association between resting left atrial conduit with left ventricular deformation at 60% of peak exercise intensity remained significant when adjusted for age, sex and mean arterial pressure (P = 0.007).

Conclusion

Left atrial phasic function at rest predicts left ventricular responses to physical exercise in this cohort of young adults, which may relate to early subclinical left atrial remodelling in early hypertension. These findings require validation in other cohorts and investigation of whether this exercise limitation can be overcome in young hypertensives.

Abstract P374 Figure 1

Deal with the real, not the notional patient, and don't ignore important uncertainties

There is a strong presumption in favour of the maintenance of life. Given sufficient evidence, it can be rebutted. But the epistemic uncertainties about the best interests of patients in prolonged disorders of consciousness ('PDOC') and the wishes that they should be presumed to have are such that, in most PDOC cases, the presumption cannot be rebutted. It is conventional and wrong (or at least unsupported by the evidence) to assume that PDOC patients have no interest in continued existence. Treatment withdrawal/continuation decisions should focus on the patient as he or she actually is, and should not unjustifiably assume that the premorbid patient continues to exist unchanged, and that the actual patient has the same interests as the premorbid patient and would make the same decisions in relation to treatment as the premorbid patient would have done.

Doctors should be morally common: a reply to Rosamond Rhodes

​Rosamond Rhodes contends, by reference to seven examples, that medical ethics is distinctly different from non-medical ethics. Each of those examples, on proper examination, illustrates precisely the opposite contention. It is clear not only that medical ethics relies on the same principles as non-medical (and indeed non-professional) ethics, but that it should so rely. A distinctively medical ethics would be dangerous: it would divorce ethical medical decision-making from the patients whom medicine exists to serve.

Persistence of HIV reservoir following successful haematopoietic stem cell transplant for juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia in a child with perinatally acquired HIV

This report describes a case of juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia (JMML) on a background of both perinatally acquired HIV infection and congenital cytomegalovirus, and management of antiretroviral therapy during haematopoietic stem cell transplant. Peripheral blood HIV viral load remained below the lower limit of detection throughout and following transplant and is currently <20 RNA copies/mL. The child is currently in remission from JMML, but HIV DNA remains detectable despite myeloablative conditioning and sustained plasma HIV viral suppression.

Supportive care needs of patients following treatment for colorectal cancer: risk factors for unmet needs and the association between unmet needs and health-related quality of life-results from the ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study

Purpose

To investigate unmet needs of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) at the end of treatment and whether unmet needs improve over time. Identify predictors of need following treatment and whether unmet need is associated with worse health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

Methods

As part of the UK ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) cohort study, patients treated for CRC completed the Supportive Care Needs Survey Short Form-34 (SCNS SF-34) 15 and 24 months following surgery, along with questionnaires measuring HRQoL, wellbeing, life events, social support, and confidence to manage their cancer before surgery, 3, 9, 15, and 24 months post-surgery.

Results

The SCNS SF-34 was completed by 526 patients at 15 months and 510 patients at 24 months. About one-quarter of patients had at least one moderate or severe unmet need at both time points. Psychological and physical unmet needs were the most common and did not improve over time. Over 60% of patients who reported 5 or more moderate or severe unmet needs at 15 months experienced the same level of unmet need at 24 months. HRQoL at the beginning of treatment predicted unmet needs at the end of treatment. Unmet needs, specifically physical, psychological, and health system and information needs, were associated with poorer health and HRQoL at the end of treatment.

Conclusions

Unmet needs persist over time and are associated with HRQoL. Evaluation of HRQoL at the start of treatment would help inform the identification of vulnerable patients. Assessment and care planning in response to unmet needs should be integrated into person-centred care.

Implications for Cancer Survivors

Early identification of CRC patients at risk of unmet needs will help infrom personalised survivorship care plans. The implementation of personalised and tailored services are likely to confer HRQoL gains.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11764-019-00805-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

It is never lawful or ethical to withdraw life-sustaining treatment from patients with prolonged disorders of consciousness

In English law there is a strong (though rebuttable) presumption that life should be maintained. This article contends that this presumption means that it is always unlawful to withdraw life-sustaining treatment from patients in permanent vegetative state (PVS) and minimally conscious state (MCS), and that the reasons for this being the correct legal analysis mean also that such withdrawal will always be ethically unacceptable. There are two reasons for this conclusion. First, the medical uncertainties inherent in the definition and diagnosis of PVS/MCS are such that, as a matter of medical fact, it can never be established, with the degree of certainty necessary to rebut the presumption, that it is not in the patient's best interest to remain alive. And second (and more controversially and repercussively), that even if permanent unconsciousness can be unequivocally demonstrated, the presumption is not rebutted. This is because there is plainly more to human existence than consciousness (or consciousness the markers of which can ever be demonstrated by medical investigations). It can never be said that the identity of the patient whose best interests are at stake evaporates (so eliminating the legal or ethical subject) when that person ceases to be conscious. Nor can it be said that the best interests of an unconscious person do not mandate continued biological existence. We simply cannot know. That uncertainty is legally conclusive, and (subject to resource allocation questions and views about the relevance of family wishes and the previously expressed wishes of the patient) should be ethically conclusive.

Follow-up program after intensive care unit discharge

INTRODUCTION

Patient follow-up after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge allows the early recognition of complications associated to post-intensive care syndrome (PICS). The aim of this project is to standardize outcome variables in a follow-up program for patients at risk of suffering PICS.

METHODS

The Rehabilitation and Patient Follow-up Committee of the Argentine Society of Intensive Care Medicine (Sociedad Argentina de Terapia Intensiva, SATI) requested the collaboration of different committees to design the present document. A thorough search of the literature on the issue, together with pre-scheduled meetings and web-based discussion encounters were carried out. After comprehensive evaluation, the recommendations according to the GRADE system included in the follow-up program were: frequency of controlled visits, appointed healthcare professionals, basic domains of assessment and recommended tools of evaluation, validated in Spanish, and entire duration of the program.

CONCLUSION

The measures herein suggested for patient follow-up after ICU discharge will facilitate a basic approach to diagnosis and management of the long-term complications associated to PICS.

A Robust Longitudinal Co-culture of Obligate Anaerobic Gut Microbiome With Human Intestinal Epithelium in an Anoxic-Oxic Interface-on-a-Chip

The majority of human gut microbiome is comprised of obligate anaerobic bacteria that exert essential metabolic functions in the human colon. These anaerobic gut bacteria constantly crosstalk with the colonic epithelium in a mucosal anoxic-oxic interface (AOI). However, in vitro recreation of the metabolically mismatched colonic AOI has been technically challenging. Furthermore, stable co-culture of the obligate anaerobic commensal microbiome and epithelial cells in a mechanically dynamic condition is essential for demonstrating the host-gut microbiome crosstalk. Here, we developed an anoxic-oxic interface-on-a-chip (AOI Chip) by leveraging a modified human gut-on-a-chip to demonstrate a controlled oxygen gradient in the lumen-capillary transepithelial interface by flowing anoxic and oxic culture medium at various physiological milieus. Computational simulation and experimental results revealed that the presence of the epithelial cell layer and the flow-dependent conditioning in the lumen microchannel is necessary and sufficient to create the steady-state vertical oxygen gradient in the AOI Chip. We confirmed that the created AOI does not compromise the viability, barrier function, mucin production, and the expression and localization of tight junction proteins in the 3D intestinal epithelial layer. Two obligate anaerobic commensal gut microbiome, Bifidobacterium adolescentis and Eubacterium hallii, that exert metabolic cross-feeding in vivo, were independently co-cultured with epithelial cells in the AOI Chip for up to a week without compromising any cell viability. Our new protocol for creating an AOI in a microfluidic gut-on-a-chip may enable to demonstrate the key physiological interactions of obligate anaerobic gut microbiome with the host cells associated with intestinal metabolism, homeostasis, and immune regulation.

Dual-calibrated fMRI measurement of absolute cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption and effective oxygen diffusivity

Dual-calibrated fMRI is a multi-parametric technique that allows for the quantification of the resting oxygen extraction fraction (OEF), the absolute rate of cerebral metabolic oxygen consumption (CMRO2), cerebral vascular reactivity (CVR) and baseline perfusion (CBF). It combines measurements of arterial spin labelling (ASL) and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal changes during hypercapnic and hyperoxic gas challenges. Here we propose an extension to this methodology that permits the simultaneous quantification of the effective oxygen diffusivity of the capillary network (DC). The effective oxygen diffusivity has the scope to be an informative biomarker and useful adjunct to CMRO2, potentially providing a non-invasive metric of microvascular health, which is known to be disturbed in a range of neurological diseases. We demonstrate the new method in a cohort of healthy volunteers (n = 19) both at rest and during visual stimulation. The effective oxygen diffusivity was found to be highly correlated with CMRO2 during rest and activation, consistent with previous PET observations of a strong correlation between metabolic oxygen demand and effective diffusivity. The increase in effective diffusivity during functional activation was found to be consistent with previously reported increases in capillary blood volume, supporting the notion that measured oxygen diffusivity is sensitive to microvascular physiology.

The rebirth of medical paternalism: An NHS Trust v Y

Over the last quarter of a century, English medical law has taken an increasingly firm stand against medical paternalism. This is exemplified by cases such as Bolitho v City and Hackney Health Authority, Chester v Afshar, and Montgomery v Lanarkshire Health Board. In relation to decision-making on behalf of incapacitous adults, the actuating principle of the Mental Capacity Act 2005 is respect for patient autonomy. The only lawful acts in relation to an incapacitous person are acts which are in the best interests of that person. The 2005 Act requires a holistic assessment of best interests. Best interests are wider than 'medical best interests'. The 2018 judgment of the Supreme Court in An NHS Trust v Y (which concerned the question of whether a court needed to authorise the withdrawal of life-sustaining clinically administered nutrition/hydration (CANH) from patients in prolonged disorders of consciousness (PDOC)) risks reviving medical paternalism. The judgment, in its uncritical endorsement of guidelines from various medical organisations, may lend inappropriate authority to medical judgments of best interests and silence or render impotent non-medical contributions to the debate about best interests-so frustrating the 2005 Act. To minimise these dangers, a system of meditation should be instituted whenever it is proposed to withdraw (at least) life-sustaining CANH from (at least) patients with PDOC, and there needs to be a guarantee of access to the courts for families, carers and others who wish to challenge medical conclusions about withdrawal. This would entail proper public funding for such challenges.

Do portable nursing stations within bays of hospital wards reduce the rate of inpatient falls? An interrupted time-series analysis

Background

falls can negatively affect patients, resulting in loss of independence and functional decline and have substantial healthcare costs. Hospitals are a high-risk falls environment and regularly introduce, but seldom evaluate, policies to reduce inpatient falls. This study evaluated whether introducing portable nursing stations in ward bays to maximise nurse-patient contact time reduced inpatient falls.

Methods

inpatient falls data from local hospital incident reporting software (Datix) were collected monthly (April 2014-December 2017) from 17 wards in Stoke Mandeville and Wycombe General Hospitals, the UK. Portable nursing stations were introduced in bays on these wards from April 2016. We used a natural experimental study design and interrupted time series analysis to evaluate changes in fall rates, measured by the monthly rate of falls per 1000 occupied bed days (OBDs).

Results

the wards reported 2875 falls (April 2014-December 2017). The fallers' mean age was 78 (SD = 13) and 58% (1624/2817) were men. Most falls, 99.41% (2858/2875), resulted in none, low or moderate harm, 0.45% (13/2875) in severe harm and 0.14% (4/2875) in death. The monthly falls rate increased by 0.119 per 1000 OBDs (95% CI: 0.045, 0.194; P = 0.002) before April 2016, then decreased by 0.222 per 1000 OBDs (95% CI: -0.350, -0.093; P = 0.001) until December 2017. At 12 months post-intervention, the absolute difference between the estimated post-intervention trend and pre-intervention projected estimate was 2.84 falls per 1000 OBDs, a relative reduction of 26.71%.

Conclusion

portable nursing stations were associated with lower monthly falls rates and could reduce inpatient falls across the NHS.

Tail walking in a bottlenose dolphin community: the rise and fall of an arbitrary cultural 'fad'

Social learning of adaptive behaviour is widespread in animal populations, but the spread of arbitrary behaviours is less common. In this paper, we describe the rise and fall of a behaviour called tail walking, where a dolphin forces the majority of its body vertically out of the water and maintains the position by vigourously pumping its tail, in a community of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). The behaviour was introduced into the wild following the rehabilitation of a wild female individual, Billie, who was temporarily co-housed with trained dolphins in a dolphinarium. This individual was sighted performing the behaviour seven years after her 1988 release, as was one other female dolphin named Wave. Initial production of the behaviour was rare, but following Billie's death two decades after her release, Wave began producing the behaviour at much higher rates, and several other dolphins in the community were subsequently sighted performing the behaviour. Social learning is the most likely mechanism for the introduction and spread of this unusual behaviour, which has no known adaptive function. These observations demonstrate the potential strength of the capacity for spontaneous imitation in bottlenose dolphins, and help explain the origin and spread of foraging specializations observed in multiple populations of this genus.

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Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.