802 CONCURRENT PATHOLOGIES OBSERVED IN OLDER ADULTS WITH COVID-19 INFECTION

Introduction

This study aimed to look at the effect of frailty and multi morbidity on short-term outcomes in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in a hospital setting, looking specifically at the variety of concurrent pathologies diagnosed during their admission and how these affected the course of their illness and mortality.

Methods

The study took place at Glasgow Royal Infirmary. We retrospectively collected data from 280 patients who were admitted to the medicine for the elderly department between the 1st October and 1st December 2020 and diagnosed with COVID-19.

Results

In this cohort, 65% of older adults in hospital with COVID-19 had their admissions complicated by concurrent pathologies; most commonly delirium, acute kidney injury and pulmonary embolism, also increasing mortality in this group. It was also found that 39% of patients in this group had co-pathologies that were not necessarily associated with COVID-19 disease, for example AKI, AF and stroke/TIA. 35% of older adults in this group had no concurrent medical diagnoses during their admission, however this did not correlate with reduced mortality in this group.

Conclusion

The data highlights the vulnerability of older adults with COVID-19 infection making them more susceptible to concurrent disease and contributing to further morbidity and mortality. We also found a large number of patients had co-pathologies not associated with COVID-19 disease, highlighting the importance of considering other diagnoses in frail elderly patients.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

Precise Measurement of the D^{0} and D^{+} Lifetimes at Belle II

We report a measurement of the D^{0} and D^{+} lifetimes using D^{0}→K^{-}π^{+} and D^{+}→K^{-}π^{+}π^{+} decays reconstructed in e^{+}e^{-}→cc[over ¯] data recorded by the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB asymmetric-energy e^{+}e^{-} collider. The data, collected at center-of-mass energies at or near the ϒ(4S) resonance, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 72  fb^{-1}. The results, τ(D^{0})=410.5±1.1(stat)±0.8(syst)  fs and τ(D^{+})=1030.4±4.7(stat)±3.1(syst)  fs, are the most precise to date and are consistent with previous determinations.

18 SEDATIVE LOAD IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING OLDER ADULTS WITH MILD–MODERATE ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE: LONGITUDINAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH ADVERSE EVENTS, DELIRIUM AND FALLS

Background

Older adults are frequently prescribed medications with sedative effects, which are associated with numerous adverse consequences. However, the use and longitudinal associations of sedative medication use in older adults with mild–moderate Alzheimer Disease (AD), has not been explored to date.

Methods

The association between Sedative Load (SL) and adverse events, unscheduled healthcare utilisation, delirium and falls over 18 months was assessed in older adults with mild–moderate AD from 9 Countries. Additionally, the impact of SL on dementia progression was evaluated.

Results

Over half (52.35%; 267/510) of those with mild–moderate ad (72.8 ± 8.26 years, 61.89%) were prescribed a regular medication with sedation as a primary effect or prominent side effect with 17.65% (90/510) having a high SL (≥3). The most common medications contributing to SL were antidepressants, antipsychotics, anxiolytics and hypnotics. Over 18 months, greater SL was associated with adverse events (IRR 1.18, 1.14–1.23, p < 0.001)/serious adverse events (IRR 1.32, 1.18–1.49, p < 0.001) and unscheduled GP visits (IRR 1.26, 1.15–1.38, p < 0.001). Further, increasing SL was associated with greater likelihood of incident delirium (IRR 1.47, 1.25–1.73, p < 0.001) and falls (IRR 1.25, 1.06–1.48, p = 0.007) which persisted after covariate adjustment. SL was not associated with accelerated cognitive decline or ad progression.

Conclusion

Most adults with mild–moderate ad are prescribed at least one drug with a sedative effect and a significant minority have a high SL. Increasing SL was associated with a greater likelihood of experiencing adverse events, delirium and falls, highlighting the need for optimal prescribing in this vulnerable cohort.

47 DOSING OF DIRECT ORAL ANTICOAGULANTS IN OLDER ADULTS

Background

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are approved for a variety of uses including prevention of stroke in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and treatment and prevention of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Adjustment to DOAC dosing may be required for age, weight and renal impairment. Incorrect lower dosing puts patients at risk of thromboembolic events whereas inappropriate higher dosing increases the risk of bleeding. We compared current DOAC dosing for patients admitted to our hospital and compare this against HSE best practice to determine if patients were receiving the correct dose [1].

Methods

A prospective single-centre study. Patients admitted to our hospital following a fracture and reviewed by the Orthogeriatric team between August–October 2020 were eligible for inclusion. We recorded admission DOAC dose, age, weight and renal function. We also obtained data including sex and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS).

Results

Thirty-one patients were included. Mean age was 86 years [range 66–99] and 21(68%) were female. Apixaban was the most commonly used DOAC; 25(81%). Stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation was the most common DOAC indication; 29(93%). Twelve patients (39%) had an inappropriate DOAC dose prescribed. Eight patients (67%) had an inappropriately low dose and 4 patients (33%) had an inappropriately high dose. The mean CFS was 5 [Range 2–7] classifying our cohort as mildly frail.

Conclusion

Our study has shown that over one-third of our patients were on an inappropriate DOAC dose on admission with the majority (67%) due to under-dosing. Many factors may have influenced dosing choices by clinicians but our findings highlight the challenges in dosing, monitoring and the overall management of DOAC therapy in older people. Further studies and research are required to establish the most accurate and effective dosing strategies for DOACs in older adults.

Reference

1. Health Service Executive [Internet]. Ireland ‘Anticoagulation Prescribing Tips’ https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/publications/clinical-strategy-and-programmes/noac-prescribing-tips-for-noacs.pdf.

Safety of elective paediatric surgery during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

Corona-virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a huge impact on the delivery of healthcare worldwide, particularly elective surgery. There is a lack of data regarding risk of postoperative COVID-19 infection in children undergoing elective surgery, and regarding the utility of pre-operative COVID-19 testing, and preoperative "cocooning" or restriction of movements. The purpose of this present study was to examine the safety of elective paediatric Otolaryngology surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic with respect to incidence of postoperative symptomatic COVID-19 infection or major respiratory complications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective cohort study of paediatric patients undergoing elective Otolaryngology surgery between September and December 2020. Primary outcome measure was incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 or major respiratory complications within the 14 days after surgery. Parents of prospectively enrolled patients were contacted 14 days after surgery and enquiry made regarding development of postoperative symptoms, COVID-19 testing, or diagnosis of COVID-19.

RESULTS

302 patients were recruited. 125 (41.4%) underwent preoperative COVID-19 RT-PCR testing. 66 (21.8%) restricted movements prior to surgery. The peak 14-day COVID-19 incidence during the study was 302.9 cases per 100,000 population. No COVID-19 infections or major respiratory complications were reported in the 14 day follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study support the safety of elective paediatric Otolaryngology surgery during the pandemic, in the setting of community incidence not exceeding that observed during the study period.

Search for B^{+}→K^{+}νν[over ¯] Decays Using an Inclusive Tagging Method at Belle II

A search for the flavor-changing neutral-current decay B^{+}→K^{+}νν[over ¯] is performed at the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB asymmetric energy electron-positron collider. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 63  fb^{-1} collected at the ϒ(4S) resonance and a sample of 9  fb^{-1} collected at an energy 60 MeV below the resonance. Because the measurable decay signature involves only a single charged kaon, a novel measurement approach is used that exploits not only the properties of the B^{+}→K^{+}νν[over ¯] decay, but also the inclusive properties of the other B meson in the ϒ(4S)→BB[over ¯] event, to suppress the background from other B meson decays and light-quark pair production. This inclusive tagging approach offers a higher signal efficiency compared to previous searches. No significant signal is observed. An upper limit on the branching fraction of B^{+}→K^{+}νν[over ¯] of 4.1×10^{-5} is set at the 90% confidence level.

The effect of lockdown during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on maxillofacial injuries in a level I trauma centre: a comparative study

INTRODUCTION

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic forced many governments to impose nation-wide lockdowns. Government legislation forced limited travel on the population with restrictions on the normal way of life to limit spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The aim of this study is to explore the effects of lockdown on the presentation of maxillofacial trauma in a level I trauma centre.

METHODS

Comparative analysis was carried out using prospective and retrospective review of all consecutive patients admitted with any maxillofacial fracture in the lockdown period between 15th March and 15th June 2020 with the same period in 2019 to a Regional Trauma Maxillofacial Surgery Unit. Data included basic demographics and mechanism of injury including alcohol/drug influence, polytrauma, site of injury and treatment modality including escalation of care.

RESULTS

Across both periods, there were a total of one hundred and five (n = 105) recorded episodes of traumatic fractures with fifty-three (n = 53) in the pre-lockdown cohort and fifty-two (n = 52) in the lockdown. Included patients were significantly (p = 0.024) older during lockdown (mean age 41.44 years SD 20.70, range 5-96) with no differences in gender distribution between cohorts (p = 0.270). Patients in lockdown were more likely to be involved in polytrauma (p < 0.05) and have sustained their injury by cycling/running or any outdoor related activity (p = 0.013). Lockdown saw a significant reduction in alcohol and drug related violence (p < 0.05). Significantly more patients required operative management (p = 0.038).

CONCLUSION

Local lockdowns form part of the governments public health strategy for managing future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Our study showed no significant reduction in volume of trauma during lockdown. It is vital that hospitals maintain trauma capacity to ensure that patients are treated in a timely manner.

Upscaling e-mental health in Europe: a six-country qualitative analysis and policy recommendations from the eMEN project

E-mental health (eMH) encompasses the use of digital technologies to deliver, support, or enhance mental health services. Despite the growing evidence for the effectiveness of eMH interventions, the process of implementation of eMH solutions in healthcare remains slow throughout Europe. To address this issue, the e-Mental Health Innovation and Transnational Implementation Platform North-West Europe (eMEN) project was initiated to increase the dissemination and quality of eMH services in Europe. In this project, status analyses regarding eMH in the six participating countries (i.e., Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, The Netherlands, and the UK) were conducted and eight recommendations for eMH were developed. Expert teams from the six participating countries conducted status analyses regarding the uptake of eMH based on a narrative literature review and stakeholder interviews. Based on these status analyses, the eMEN consortium developed eight policy recommendations to further support the implementation of eMH in Europe. The status analyses showed that the participating countries are in different stages of implementing eMH into mental healthcare. Some barriers to implementing eMH were common among countries (e.g., a limited legal and regulatory framework), while others were country-specific (e.g., fragmented, federal policies). The policy recommendations included fostering awareness, creating strong political commitment, and setting reliable standards related to ethics and data security. The eMEN project has provided the initial recommendations to guide political and regulatory processes regarding eMH. Further research is needed to establish well-tailored implementation strategies and to assess the generalizability of the recommendations beyond the countries involved in the eMEN project.

Outcomes of preoperative real-time polymerase chain reaction testing for SARS CoV-2 in elective otolaryngology surgical patients during the pandemic: a prospective cohort study

Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to rule out SARS-CoV-2 prior to surgery, however few studies have evaluated patients with negative testing after surgery. Some 499 patients with negative tests were followed for 14 days after surgery, 39 were retested but none developed positive RT-PCR after operation. The risk of developing a positive RT-PCR after surgery was 0.74 per cent.

The complex multi-sectoral impacts of drought: Evidence from a mountainous basin in the Central Spanish Pyrenees

We analyzed the impacts of drought severity on a variety of sectors in a topographically complex basin (the upper Aragón basin 2181 km²) in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Using diverse data sources including meteorological and hydrological observations, remote sensing and tree rings, we analyze the possible hydrological implications of drought occurrence and severity on water availability in various sectors, including downstream impacts on irrigation water supply for crop production. Results suggest varying responses in forest activity, secondary growth, plant phenology, and crop yield to drought impacts. Specifically, meteorological droughts have distinct impacts downstream, mainly due to water partitioning between streamflow and irrigation channels that transport water to crop producing areas. This implies that drought severity can extend beyond the physical boundaries of the basin, with impacts on crop productivity. This complex response to drought impacts makes it difficult to develop objective basin-scale operational definitions for monitoring drought severity. Moreover, given the high spatial variability in responses to drought across sectors, it is difficult to establish reliable drought thresholds from indices that are relevant across all socio-economic sectors. The anthropogenic impacts (e.g. water regulation projects, ecosystem services, land cover and land use changes) pose further challenges to assessing the response of different systems to drought severity. This study stresses the need to consider the seasonality of drought impacts and appropriate drought time scales to adequately assess and understand their complexity.

Langmuir probe array for the small angle slot divertor in DIII-D

The DIII-D small angle slot (SAS) divertor is designed for divertor physics studies with enhanced neutral confinement and special target geometries in a closed divertor. The closed nature of the SAS makes optical diagnostic measurements difficult, so a specially designed, multipurpose array of Langmuir probes has been implemented to study the plasma conditions in and around the slot. The probes are spaced to provide at least 2 mm resolution (shorter than the energy decay length) of the near scrape-off layer when mapped to the outer mid-plane. Due to space limitations at the bottom of the slot, a novel spring-loaded probe and tile design was developed to clamp several short rooftop probe tips and insulators to the cooled baseplate. Initial probe measurements revealed tile to tile edge shadowing, especially where magnetic field line surface angles were less than 1°. Additionally, it was found, using three Langmuir probes (at 90°, 180°, and 270°), that the strike point variation of ±5 mm radially around the torus was not well aligned with the circular slot geometry [Watkins et al., Nucl. Mater. Energy 18, 46 (2019)]. These issues were resolved by (1) designing tiles with all probes mounted near the tile center instead of near the edges and (2) aligning these new custom tiles to the measured strike point toroidal surface with a very accurate laser scanning alignment tool. Post-alignment Langmuir probe measurements and plasma behavior demonstrated close agreement at two separate toroidal locations that were 45° apart.

Food addiction in a large non-clinical sample of Canadians

Introduction

The concept of food addiction emerged recently due to the similarities between food overconsumption patterns and addictive drugs. This concept is not yet included into ICD or DSM as it still needs to be further investigated. Relationship between obesity and food consumption as well as the psychological indicators of food addiction are of particular interest.

Objectives

To examine the prevalence of food addiction and its relationship to obesity, quality of life and multiple indicators of impulsivity.

Methods

Cross-sectional in-person assessment of 1432 community adults (age 38.93+/-13.7; 58% female). Measurements: Yale Food Addiction Scale 2.0, anthropometrics, body composition, World Health Organization Quality of Life scale, and impulsivity measures including impulsive personality traits, delay discounting, and behavioral inhibition.

Results

The prevalence of food addiction was 9.3% and substantially below that of obesity (32.7%). Food addiction was more prevalent among obese individuals and also was associated with higher BMI among non-obese participants. It was associated with significantly lower quality of life in all domains, and significantly higher impulsive personality traits, particularly negative and positive urgency.

Conclusions

In this general community sample, food addiction was present in slightly fewer than 1 in 10 individuals, approximately one-third the prevalence of obesity, but notably the food addiction has been mostly represented within the subsample of obese individuals. Food addiction was robustly associated with substantively lower quality of life and elevations in impulsivity, particularly in deficits in emotional regulation. These data suggest food addiction may be thought of as a subtype of obesity and, in non-obese individuals, possibly a prodrome.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

A comparison of machine learning models for predicting rehospitalisation and death after a first hospitalisation with heart failure

Background

Many machine learning models exist, including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest algorithm (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gradient Boosted Machine (GBM), but their value for predicting outcome in patients with heart failure has not been compared.

Aim

To predict rehospitalisation (all-cause) and death (all-cause) at 1-, 3- and 12 months after discharge from a first hospitalisation for heart failure using four machine learning models.

Methods

The National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board serves a population of ∼1.1 million. We obtained de-identified administrative data, including investigations, diagnosis and prescriptions, linked to hospital admissions and deaths for anyone with a diagnosis of vascular disease or heart failure or prescribed loop diuretics, statins or neuro-endocrine antagonists at any time between 1st January 2010 and 1st June 2018. Patients who were under 18 or had no prior hospitalisation for heart failure were excluded. Four ML algorithms using 46 variables were applied.

Results

Of 360,000 people who met the above criteria between 2010–2018, 6,372 had a hospitalisation for heart failure prior to 1st January 2010 and 8,304 had a first hospitalisation for heart failure thereafter. Between 2010 and 2018 there were 3,086 re-hospitalisations over 24 hours and 3,706 patients died, with 5,070 patients experiencing the composite outcome.

GBM and RF consistently outperformed MLP and SVM when comparing AUC, sensitivity and specificity combined, with GBM performing best in all scenarios. Since GBM and RF are both tree-based models, and with SVM and MLP regularly reporting very poor sensitivity or specificity despite a similar AUC to the others, this suggests that SVM and MLP may be suffering from overfitting and might perform better in larger data-sets.

Both GBM and RF work by ordering variables, so the final model can be used to determine the most important prediction variables. Age, number of times a blood sample was taken out of hospital, length of stay, social deprivation index and haemoglobin concentration consistently ranked amongst the most important variables. Models predicted all 1-month events better than later events.

Conclusions

Some, but not all, ML models applied to this data-set predicted rehospitalisation and death with great accuracy for up to 3 months after a first hospitalisation for heart failure. The models identified several important prognostic variables that are currently seldom collected in clinical research registries but perhaps should be.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council