Do polypills lead to neglect of lifestyle risk factors? Findings from an individual participant data meta-analysis among 3140 patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease

AIM

The aim of this study was to investigate whether polypill-based care for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is associated with a change in lifestyle risk factors when compared with usual care, among patients with CVD or high calculated cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of three trials including patients from Australia, England, India, Ireland, the Netherlands and New Zealand that compared a strategy using a polypill containing aspirin, statin and antihypertensive therapy with usual care in patients with a prior CVD event or who were at high risk of their first event. Analyses investigated any differential effect on anthropometric measures and self-reported lifestyle behaviours.

RESULTS

Among 3140 patients (75% male, mean age 62 years and 76% with a prior CVD event) there was no difference in lifestyle risk factors in those randomised to polypill-based care compared with usual care over a median of 15 months, either across all participants combined, or in a range of subgroups. Furthermore, narrow confidence intervals (CIs) excluded any major effect; for example differences between the groups in body mass index was -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to 0.1) kg/m(2), in weekly duration of moderate intensity physical activity was -2 (-26 to 23) minutes and the proportion of smokers was 16% vs 17% (RR 0.98, 0.84 to 1.15) at the end of trial.

DISCUSSION

This analysis allays concern that polypill-based care may lead to neglect of lifestyle risk factors, at least among high-risk patients. Maximally effective preventive approaches should address lifestyle factors alongside pharmaceutical interventions, as recommended by major international guidelines.

Ethnicity and risk of lower limb amputation in people with Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

AIM

Lower limb amputation is a serious complication of diabetic foot disease and there are unexplained ethnic variations in incidence. This study investigates the risk of amputation among different ethnic groups after adjusting for demographic, socio-economic status and clinical variables.

METHODS

We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with Type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked hospital records. The primary outcome was time from initial data collection to first lower limb amputation. Demographic variables included age of onset and duration since diabetes diagnosis, gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status. Clinical variables included smoking status, height and weight, blood pressure, HbA1c , total cholesterol/HDL ratio and albuminuria. Cox proportional hazards models were used.

RESULTS

There were 892 lower limb amputations recorded among 62 002 patients (2.11 amputations per 1000 person-years), followed for a median of 7.14 years (422 357 person-years). After adjusting for demographic and socio-economic variables and compared with Europeans, Māori had the highest risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.84 (95%CI:1.54-2.19)], whereas East Asians [HR 0.18, (0.08-0.44)] and South Asians [HR 0.39 (0.22-0.67)] had the lowest risk. Adjusting for available clinical variables reduced the differences but they remained substantial [HR 1.61 (1.35-1.93), 0.23 (0.10-0.56) and 0.48 (0.27-0.83), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnic groups had significantly different risk of lower limb amputation, even after adjusting for demographic and some major clinical risk factors. Barriers to care should be addressed and intensive prevention strategies known to reduce the incidence of lower limb amputations could be prioritized to those at greatest risk.

Evaluation of a New Zealand program to improve transition of care for older high risk adults

Transition interventions aim to improve care and reduce hospital readmissions but evaluations of these interventions have reported inconsistent results. We report on the evaluation of an intervention implemented in Auckland, New Zealand. Participants were people over the age of 65 who had an acute medical admission and were at high risk of readmission. The intervention included an improved discharge process and nurse telephone follow-up soon after discharge. Outcomes were 28 day readmission rates and emergency attendances. The study is observational, using both interrupted times series and regression discontinuity designs. 5239 patients were treated over a one year period. There was no change in readmission rates or ED attendances or secondary outcomes. Not all patients received all components of the intervention. This transition intervention was not successful. Possible reasons for this and implications are discussed. Although non-experimental methods were used, we believe the results are robust.

Successful melanoma triage by a virtual lesion clinic (teledermatoscopy)

BACKGROUND

A Virtual Lesion Clinic (VLC) using teledermatoscopy was established to improve efficiency of the melanoma referral pathway.

OBJECTIVES

To assess diagnostic accuracy and to compare wait-times and costs of VLC and conventional clinics.

METHODS

Patients with suspected melanoma referred from primary care into a publicly funded health system attended local skin imaging centres, rather than hospital outpatient clinics. A teledermatologist assessed each lesion choosing specialist assessment/excision, General Practitioner (GP) follow-up, to re-image in 3 months, or self-monitoring/no concern.

RESULTS

613 skin lesions in 310 patients were evaluated over 12 months. Median time between receipt of referral and attendance at the VLC was 9 days compared to 26.5 days for standard outpatient assessment. Sixty-six percent (404/613) of lesions were considered benign, and 12% (73/613) were suspicious for melanoma. Of 129 lesions excised, 98 were skin cancers including 48 histologically confirmed melanomas with one spitzoid tumour of unknown malignant potential (STUMP), i.e. one melanoma per 1.59 suspected lesions biopsied and one melanoma in every 12.8 referred to the service. There were 49 non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC). Teledermatoscopic diagnosis of melanomas was found to have a positive predictive value (PPV) of 63%. Compared to the conventional clinic, cost reductions from running the VLC for 1 year were in excess of NZ$364,000 (or NZ$1174/patient seen).

CONCLUSIONS

The VLC offered an efficient, accurate and cost effective way of processing suspected melanoma referrals to the public health system.

The Health Quality and Safety Commission: making good health care better

New Zealand has one of the best value health care systems in the world, but as a proportion of GDP our spending on health care has increased every year since 1999. Further, there are issues of quality and safety in our system we must address, including rates of adverse events. The Health Quality and Safety Commission was formed in 2010 as a crown agent to influence, encourage, guide and support improvement in health care practice in New Zealand. The New Zealand Triple Aim has been defined as: improved quality, safety and experience of care; improved health and equity for all populations; and best value for public health system resources. The Commission is pursuing the Triple Aim via two fundamental objectives: doing the right thing by providing care supported by the best evidence available, focused on what matters to each individual patient, and doing the right thing right, first time, by making sure health care is safe and of the highest quality possible. Improvement efforts must be supported by robust but economical measurements. New Zealand has a strong culture of quality, so the Commission's role is to work with our colleagues to make good health care better.

Effect of fixed dose combination treatment on adherence and risk factor control among patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease: randomised controlled trial in primary care

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether provision of fixed dose combination treatment improves adherence and risk factor control compared with usual care of patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care.

DESIGN

Open label randomised control trial: IMPACT (IMProving Adherence using Combination Therapy).

SETTING

54 general practices in the Auckland and Waikato regions of New Zealand, July 2010 to August 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

513 adults (including 257 indigenous Māori) at high risk of cardiovascular disease (established cardiovascular disease or five year risk ≥ 15%) who were recommended for treatment with antiplatelet, statin, and two or more blood pressure lowering drugs. 497 (97%) completed 12 months' follow-up.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised to continued usual care or to fixed dose combination treatment (with two versions available: aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 40 mg, and lisinopril 10 mg with either atenolol 50 mg or hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg). All drugs in both treatment arms were prescribed by their usual general practitioners and dispensed by local community pharmacists.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes were self reported adherence to recommended drugs (antiplatelet, statin, and two or more blood pressure lowering agents) and mean change in blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol at 12 months.

RESULTS

Adherence to all four recommended drugs was greater among fixed dose combination than usual care participants at 12 months (81% v 46%; relative risk 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.52 to 2.03, P<0.001; number needed to treat 2.9, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 3.7). Adherence for each drug type at 12 months was high in both groups but especially in the fixed dose combination group: for antiplatelet treatment it was 93% fixed dose combination v 83% usual care (P<0.001), for statin 94% v 89% (P=0.06), for combination blood pressure lowering 89% v 59% (P<0.001), and for any blood pressure lowering 96% v 91% (P=0.02). Self reported adherence was highly concordant with dispensing data (dispensing of all four recommended drugs 79% fixed dose combination v 47% usual care, relative risk 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.44 to 1.93, P<0.001). There was no statistically significant improvement in risk factor control between the fixed dose combination and usual care groups over 12 months: the difference in systolic blood pressure was -2.2 mm Hg (-4.5 v -2.3, 95% confidence interval -5.6 to 1.2, P=0.21), in diastolic blood pressure -1.2 mm Hg (-2.1 v -0.9, -3.2 to 0.8, P=0.22) and in low density lipoprotein cholesterol -0.05 mmol/L (-0.20 v -0.15, -0.17 to 0.08, P=0.46). The number of participants with cardiovascular events or serious adverse events was similar in both treatment groups (fixed dose combination 16 v usual care 18 (P=0.73), 99 v 93 (P=0.56), respectively). Fixed dose combination treatment was discontinued in 94 participants (37%). The most commonly reported reason for discontinuation was a side effect (54/75, 72%). Overall, 89% (227/256) of fixed dose combination participants' general practitioners completed a post-trial survey, and the fixed dose combination strategy was rated as satisfactory or very satisfactory for starting treatment (206/227, 91%), blood pressure control (180/220, 82%), cholesterol control (170/218, 78%), tolerability (181/223, 81%), and prescribing according to local guidelines (185/219, 84%). When participants were asked at 12 months how easy they found taking their prescribed drugs, most responded very easy or easy (224/246, 91% fixed dose combination v 212/246, 86% usual care, P=0.09). At 12 months the change in other lipid fractions, difference in EuroQol-5D, and difference in barriers to adherence did not differ significantly between the treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among this well treated primary care population, fixed dose combination treatment improved adherence to the combination of all recommended drugs but improvements in clinical risk factors were small and did not reach statistical significance. Acceptability was high for both general practitioners and patients, although the discontinuation rate was high.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12606000067572.

General practice ethnicity data: evaluation of a tool

INTRODUCTION

There is evidence that the collection of ethnicity data in New Zealand primary care is variable and that data recording in practices does not always align with the procedures outlined in the Ethnicity Data Protocols for the Health and Disability Sector. In 2010, The Ministry of Health funded the development of a tool to audit the collection of ethnicity data in primary care. The aim of this study was to pilot the Ethnicity Data Audit Tool (EAT) in general practice. The goal was to evaluate the tool and identify recommendations for its improvement.

METHODS

Eight general practices in the Waitemata District Health Board region participated in the EAT pilot. Feedback about the pilot process was gathered by questionnaires and interviews, to gain an understanding of practices' experiences in using the tool. Questionnaire and interview data were analysed using a simple analytical framework and a general inductive method.

FINDINGS

General practice receptionists, practice managers and general practitioners participated in the pilot. Participants found the pilot process challenging but enlightening. The majority felt that the EAT was a useful quality improvement tool for handling patient ethnicity data. Larger practices were the most positive about the tool.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that, with minor improvements to the toolkit, the EAT has the potential to lead to significant improvements in the quality of ethnicity data collection and recording in New Zealand general practices. Other system-level factors also need to be addressed.

General practice ethnicity data: evaluation of a tool

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that the collection of ethnicity data in New Zealand primary care is variable and that data recording in practices does not always align with the procedures outlined in the Ethnicity Data Protocols for the Health and Disability Sector. In 2010, The Ministry of Health funded the development of a tool to audit the collection of ethnicity data in primary care. The aim of this study was to pilot the Ethnicity Data Audit Tool (EAT) in general practice. The goal was to evaluate the tool and identify recommendations for its improvement. METHODS: Eight general practices in the Waitemata District Health Board region participated in the EAT pilot. Feedback about the pilot process was gathered by questionnaires and interviews, to gain an understanding of practices’ experiences in using the tool. Questionnaire and interview data were analysed using a simple analytical framework and a general inductive method. FINDINGS: General practice receptionists, practice managers and general practitioners participated in the pilot. Participants found the pilot process challenging but enlightening. The majority felt that the EAT was a useful quality improvement tool for handling patient ethnicity data. Larger practices were the most positive about the tool. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that, with minor improvements to the toolkit, the EAT has the potential to lead to significant improvements in the quality of ethnicity data collection and recording in New Zealand general practices. Other system-level factors also need to be addressed. KEYWORDS: Data collection; ethnicity; general practice; primary health care

The effect of Māori ethnicity misclassification on cervical screening coverage

AIM

There is a large difference in the cervical screening coverage rate between Māori and European women in New Zealand. This paper examines the extent to which this difference is due to misclassification of ethnicity.

METHODS

Data from Waitemata District Health Board's two Primary Health Organisations (PHOs) was used to identify the population of Waitemata domiciled women aged 25-69 years eligible for cervical screening. Their cervical screening status was obtained from the National Cervical Screening Programme register (NCPS-R). Data from Auckland and Waitemata DHBs was used to determine the women's ethnicity in the National Health Index (NHI). Women who had withdrawn from the NCSP-R, women who were deceased and women for whom an NHI ethnicity code could not be obtained were excluded from the analysis. Ethnicity codes from the three sources (PHO registers, NCSP-R and NHI) were compared to identify women classified as non-Māori in the NCSP-R but Maori in either of the other two data sources. The effect on Maori cervical screening coverage rates of not counting these women was assessed.

RESULTS

Within the study population there was a total of 6718 women identified as Māori on the NCSP of whom 5242 had been screened within the last 3 years and 1476 who had not. In addition to these, there were 2075 women identified as Māori in either the PHO or NHI databases but not in the NCSP-R who had been screened within the preceding 3 years, and a further 2094 who had not been screened. There were also 797 women identified as Maori in the NHI or PHO datasets who were not on the NCSP-R (and therefore were not screened). If all screened women classified as Māori from any source were counted, Waitemata DHB's Māori screening coverage rate would rise from 49.3% to 68.8% (or to 61.0% and 63.2% respective if just PHO and NHI Māori were counted).

CONCLUSION

Misclassification of ethnicity could explain (in absolute terms) up to 19.5% of the 35.0% difference in cervical screening coverage rate between Māori and non-Māori , non-Pacific, non-Asian coverage in Waitemata District. Misclassification is likely to have similar effects on coverage estimates throughout New Zealand. Without improving the accuracy of ethnicity data in the NCSP-R it will be impossible for the country to achieve the target coverage rate of 80% among Māori.

New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study cardiovascular risk score for people with Type 2 diabetes: validation in the PREDICT cohort

INTRODUCTION

New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend treating people for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on the basis of five-year absolute risk using a NZ adaptation of the Framingham risk equation. A diabetes-specific Diabetes Cohort Study (DCS) CVD predictive risk model has been developed and validated using NZ Get Checked data.

AIM

To revalidate the DCS model with an independent cohort of people routinely assessed using PREDICT, a web-based CVD risk assessment and management programme.

METHODS

People with Type 2 diabetes without pre-existing CVD were identified amongst people who had a PREDICT risk assessment between 2002 and 2005. From this group we identified those with sufficient data to allow estimation of CVD risk with the DCS models. We compared the DCS models with the NZ Framingham risk equation in terms of discrimination, calibration, and reclassification implications.

RESULTS

Of 3044 people in our study cohort, 1829 people had complete data and therefore had CVD risks calculated. Of this group, 12.8% (235) had a cardiovascular event during the five-year follow-up. The DCS models had better discrimination than the currently used equation, with C-statistics being 0.68 for the two DCS models and 0.65 for the NZ Framingham model.

DISCUSSION

The DCS models were superior to the NZ Framingham equation at discriminating people with diabetes who will have a cardiovascular event. The adoption of a DCS model would lead to a small increase in the number of people with diabetes who are treated with medication, but potentially more CVD events would be avoided.

Improving the productivity of elective surgery through a new 'package of care'

In response to a need to improve the productivity and throughput of elective surgical services, one district health board (DHB) in New Zealand has introduced a 'package of care' (POC) in which incentive-based, risk-sharing contracts were developed collaboratively between DHB managers, surgeons and anaesthetists. The POC includes throughput targets and facilitates consistent surgical teams and the cohorting of patients. Whilst many staff are very supportive of the POC, some are of the view that it conflicts with the ideals and principles of working in a public health system, and creates inequities amongst the hospital staff. Analysis indicates that, after controlling for age, casemix and complexity the POC has resulted in shorter theatre times, shorter lengths of stay and lower average inpatient event costs compared with standard care at the public hospital. An unintended consequence could be that the POC may encourage throughput of less complex cases at the expense of more complex cases. The average complexity and range of cases performed publicly should be carefully monitored to ensure this does not occur.

Increasing productivity, reducing cost and improving quality in elective surgery in New Zealand: the Waitemata District Health Board joint arthroplasty pilot

BACKGROUND

In 2010, Waitemata District Health Board piloted a new model of care for total hip and knee arthroplasties. The pilot was incentive based and clinically led. The participating surgeons and anaesthetists were responsible for increasing surgical throughput. The pilot aimed to increase productivity, reduce cost and increase quality for patients.

AIM

To compare costs and outcomes for elective hip and knee arthroplasties carried out at the pilot site (Waitakere Hospital) compared with the main District Health Board hospital site (North Shore Hospital (NSH)).

METHODS

A retrospective matched cohort study of hip and knee replacements discharged between 1 July 2010 and 31 March 2011, comparing costs and outcomes at the pilot site compared with the NSH site. Only non-complex procedures were included, and routinely collected data were used.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventy-seven hip replacements (77 NSH, 100 pilot) and 158 knee replacements (88 NSH, 70 pilot) were analysed. Total inpatient event costs were 12% and 17% lower for hip and knee replacements, respectively, at the pilot site compared with NSH. Significant reduction in operation length (39% hip, 36% knee) and length of stay (38% hip, 39% knee) were found in the pilot groups compared with NSH.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of an innovative new model in a public hospital setting has produced significant increases in productivity and reduced overall costs. This model could potentially be used in other public healthcare settings for non-complex elective surgery.

New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study cardiovascular risk score for people with Type 2 diabetes: validation in the PREDICT cohort

INTRODUCTION: New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend treating people for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on the basis of five-year absolute risk using a NZ adaptation of the Framingham risk equation. A diabetes-specific Diabetes Cohort Study (DCS) CVD predictive risk model has been developed and validated using NZ Get Checked data. AIM: To revalidate the DCS model with an independent cohort of people routinely assessed using PREDICT, a web-based CVD risk assessment and management programme. METHODS: People with Type 2 diabetes without pre-existing CVD were identified amongst people who had a PREDICT risk assessment between 2002 and 2005. From this group we identified those with sufficient data to allow estimation of CVD risk with the DCS models. We compared the DCS models with the NZ Framingham risk equation in terms of discrimination, calibration, and reclassification implications. RESULTS: Of 3044 people in our study cohort, 1829 people had complete data and therefore had CVD risks calculated. Of this group, 12.8% (235) had a cardiovascular event during the five-year follow-up. The DCS models had better discrimination than the currently used equation, with C-statistics being 0.68 for the two DCS models and 0.65 for the NZ Framingham model. DISCUSSION: The DCS models were superior to the NZ Framingham equation at discriminating people with diabetes who will have a cardiovascular event. The adoption of a DCS model would lead to a small increase in the number of people with diabetes who are treated with medication, but potentially more CVD events would be avoided. KEYWORDS: Cardiovascular disease; diabetes; prevention; risk assessment; reliability and validity

Trends in incidence and mortality from abdominal aortic aneurysm in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

This study examined trends in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) incidence and mortality in New Zealand (NZ) and compared these with mortality rates from England and Wales.

METHODS

Cause-specific death data were obtained from the NZ Ministry of Health, UK Office for National Statistics and National Archives (for England and Wales). The NZ National Minimum Data Set provided hospital discharge data from July 1994 to June 2009.

RESULTS

In 2005-2007 the age-standardized AAA mortality rate for men was 33·3 per cent less in NZ than in England and Wales (5·21 versus 7·81 per 100 000), whereas for women it was 9·8 per cent less (2·12 versus 2·35 per 100 000). Standardized mortality rates in NZ fell by 53·0 per cent for men and 34·1 per cent for women from 1991 to 2007. Between 1991-1992 and 2005-2007 the probability of a 65-year-old dying from an AAA fell by 28·2 per cent (from 1·872 to 1·344 per cent) in men, and by 6·3 per cent (from 0·837 to 0·784 per cent) in women. New AAA admission and hospital death rates in NZ peaked in 1999 for men, and in 2001 for women, and have since declined sharply. Hospital mortality ratios have also fallen, except for women with a ruptured aneurysm.

CONCLUSION

The burden of AAA disease has been falling since at least 1991 in NZ, and since 1995 in England and Wales. Although survival appears to be improving, most of the reduction is due to lower disease incidence.

A theory-based video messaging mobile phone intervention for smoking cessation: randomized controlled trial

Background

Advances in technology allowed the development of a novel smoking cessation program delivered by video messages sent to mobile phones. This social cognitive theory-based intervention (called “STUB IT”) used observational learning via short video diary messages from role models going through the quitting process to teach behavioral change techniques.

Objective

The objective of our study was to assess the effectiveness of a multimedia mobile phone intervention for smoking cessation.

Methods

A randomized controlled trial was conducted with 6-month follow-up. Participants had to be 16 years of age or over, be current daily smokers, be ready to quit, and have a video message-capable phone. Recruitment targeted younger adults predominantly through radio and online advertising. Registration and data collection were completed online, prompted by text messages. The intervention group received an automated package of video and text messages over 6 months that was tailored to self-selected quit date, role model, and timing of messages. Extra messages were available on demand to beat cravings and address lapses. The control group also set a quit date and received a general health video message sent to their phone every 2 weeks.

Results

The target sample size was not achieved due to difficulty recruiting young adult quitters. Of the 226 randomized participants, 47% (107/226) were female and 24% (54/226) were Maori (indigenous population of New Zealand). Their mean age was 27 years (SD 8.7), and there was a high level of nicotine addiction. Continuous abstinence at 6 months was 26.4% (29/110) in the intervention group and 27.6% (32/116) in the control group (P = .8). Feedback from participants indicated that the support provided by the video role models was important and appreciated.

Conclusions

This study was not able to demonstrate a statistically significant effect of the complex video messaging mobile phone intervention compared with simple general health video messages via mobile phone. However, there was sufficient positive feedback about the ease of use of this novel intervention, and the support obtained by observing the role model video messages, to warrant further investigation.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Number: ACTRN12606000476538; http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?ID=81688 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/5umMU4sZi)

Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes: the new zealand diabetes cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To derive a 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equation from usual-care data that is appropriate for people with type 2 diabetes from a wide range of ethnic groups, variable glycemic control, and high rates of albuminuria in New Zealand.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This prospective open-cohort study used primary-care data from 36,127 people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD to derive a CVD equation using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Data from 12,626 people from a geographically different area were used for validation. Outcome measure was time to first fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event, derived from national hospitalization and mortality records. Risk factors were age at diagnosis, diabetes duration, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol-to-HDL ratio, ethnicity, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio.

RESULTS

Baseline median age was 59 years, 51% were women, 55% were of non-European ethnicity, and 33% had micro- or macroalbuminuria. Median follow-up was 3.9 years (141,169 person-years), including 10,030 individuals followed for at least 5 years. At total of 6,479 first cardiovascular events occurred during follow-up. The 5-year observed risk was 20.8% (95% CI 20.3-21.3). Risk increased with each 1% A1C (adjusted hazard ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.05-1.08]), when macroalbuminuria was present (2.04 [1.89-2.21]), and in Indo-Asians (1.29 [1.14-1.46]) and Maori (1.23 [1.14-1.32]) compared with Europeans. The derived risk equations performed well on the validation cohort compared with other risk equations.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal function, ethnicity, and glycemic control contribute significantly to cardiovascular risk prediction. Population-appropriate risk equations can be derived from routinely collected data.

Performance of Framingham cardiovascular risk scores by ethnic groups in New Zealand: PREDICT CVD-10

AIM

To compare the calibration performance of the original Framingham Heart Study risk prediction score for cardiovascular disease and an adjusted version of the Framingham score used in current New Zealand cardiovascular risk management guidelines for high and low risk ethnic groups.

METHODS

Since 2002 cardiovascular risk assessments have been undertaken as part of routine clinical care in many New Zealand primary care practices using PREDICT, a web-based decision support programme for assessing and managing cardiovascular risk. Individual risk profiles from PREDICT were electronically and anonymously linked to national hospital admissions and death registrations in January 2008. Calibration performance was investigated by comparing the observed 5-year cardiovascular event rates (deaths and hospitalisations) with predicted rates from the Framingham and New Zealand adjusted Framingham scores. Calibration was examined in a combined 'high risk' ethnic group (Maori, Pacific and Indian) and a European 'low risk' ethnic group. There was insufficient person-time follow-up for separate analyses in each ethnic group. The analyses were restricted to PREDICT participants aged 30-74 years with no history of previous cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Of the 59,344 participants followed for a mean of 2.11 years (125,064 person years of follow-up), 1,374 first cardiovascular events occurred. Among the 35,240 European participants, 759 cardiovascular events occurred during follow-up, giving a mean observed 5-year cumulative incidence of 4.5%. There were 582 events among the 21,026 Maori, Pacific and Indian participants, corresponding to a mean 5-year cumulative incidence rate of 7.4%. For Europeans, the original Framingham score overestimated 5-year risk by 0.7-3.2% at risk levels below 15% and by about 5% at higher risk levels. In contrast, for Maori, Pacific, and Indian patients combined, the Framingham score underestimated 5-year cardiovascular risk by 1.1-2.2% in participants who scored below 15% 5-year predicted risk (the recommended threshold for drug treatment in New Zealand), and overestimated by 2.4-4.1% the risk in those who scored above the 15% threshold. For both high risk and low risk ethnic groups, the New Zealand adjusted score systematically overestimated the observed 5-year event rate ranging from 0.6-5.3% at predicted risk levels below 15% to 5.4-9.3% at higher risk levels.

CONCLUSION

The original Framingham Heart Study risk prediction score overestimates risk for the New Zealand European population but underestimates risk for the combined high risk ethnic populations. However the adjusted Framingham score used in New Zealand clinical guidelines overcompensates for this underestimate, resulting in a score that overestimates risk among the European, Maori, Pacific and Indian ethnic populations at all predicted risk levels. When sufficient person years of follow-up are available in the PREDICT cohort, new cardiovascular risk prediction scores should be developed for each of the ethnic groups to allow for more accurate risk prediction and targeting of treatment.

An association between ethnicity and cardiovascular outcomes for people with Type 2 diabetes in New Zealand

AIMS

To investigate the association between ethnicity and risk of first cardiovascular (CV) event for people with Type 2 diabetes in New Zealand.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from a national primary health care diabetes annual review programme linked to national hospital admission and mortality data. Ethnicity was recorded as European, Maori, Pacific, Indo-Asian, East-Asian or Other. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate factors associated with first CV event. Data was collected from 48,444 patients with Type 2 diabetes, with first data collected between 1 January 2000 and 20 December 2005, no previous cardiovascular event at entry and with complete measurements. Risk factors included ethnicity, gender, socio-economic status, body mass index, smoking, age at diagnosis, duration of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, serum lipids, glycated haemoglobin and urine albumin : creatinine ratio. The main outcome measures were time to first fatal or non-fatal CV event.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 2.4 years. Using combined European and Other ethnicities as a reference, hazard ratios for first CV event were 1.30 for Maori (95% confidence interval 1.19-1.41), 1.04 for Pacific (0.95-1.13), 1.06 for Indo-Asian (0.91-1.24) and 0.73 for East-Asian (0.62-0.85) after controlling for all other risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnicity was independently associated with time to first CV event in people with Type 2 diabetes. Maori were at 30% higher risk of first CV event and East-Asian 27% lower risk compared with European/Other, with no significant difference in risk for Pacific and Indo-Asian peoples.

The accuracy of ethnicity data in primary care and its impact on cardiovascular risk assessment and management--PREDICT CVD-8

BACKGROUND

Accurate ethnicity data are a prerequisite for evidence-based cardiovascular risk assessment and management according to national guidelines.

AIMS

(i) To investigate the accuracy of ethnicity data in primary care medical records by comparing them with self-identified ethnicity. (ii) To determine the clinical impact of ethnicity misclassification on cardiovascular risk assessment and management.

METHODS

A random sample of 870 patients from 18 general practices (who had ethnicity collected from their medical record as part of cardiovascular risk assessment using PREDICT, a web-based decision support tool) were sent a postal questionnaire asking their self-identified ethnicity using the 2001 Census ethnicity question.

RESULTS

Data were available for 665 people (77% response rate) who completed the postal questionnaire. Ethnicity in the primary care record and self-identified ethnicity from the questionnaire were identical for 68% of respondents at Statistics New Zealand Level 2 coding. Data concordance varied from 9.8% for the non-New Zealand European ethnic group to 90.9% for New Zealand European. The primary care record agreed with self-identified ethnicity for 64.9% of Maori respondents. Fortunately, when the same ethnicity data were categorised using the Statistics New Zealand ethnic group prioritisation rules and applied within PREDICT, which adds a risk weighting for Maori, Pacific, and Indian subcontinent peoples, the impact of misclassification was small. The main reason was that about half of misclassifications occurred between ethnic groups classified in the same high cardiovascular risk category. For about 6% of Maori, Pacific, and Indian subcontinent people in our study this misclassification could potentially have delayed risk assessment and resulted in under-treatment. In contrast, about 1.5% of those with other ethnicities may have undergone a premature risk assessment and been over-treated.

CONCLUSION

The clinical impact of ethnicity misclassification on cardiovascular risk assessment and management in primary care is modest because much of the misclassification does not alter cardiovascular risk classification. Nevertheless, efforts to improve the accuracy of ethnicity classification in primary care need to continue in order to support the sector's ability to monitor health service utilisation, outcomes, and performance related indicators.

Cardiovascular risk management of different ethnic groups with type 2 diabetes in primary care in New Zealand

AIMS

To examine cardiovascular preventive and renal protective treatment for different ethnic groups with diabetes in primary care.

METHODS

The study population included patients with type 2 diabetes attending an annual review in New Zealand primary care during 2004. Primary care data were linked to hospital admission data to identify previous cardiovascular disease (CVD). For those without previous CVD, 5-year cardiovascular risk was calculated. Proportions on, and predictors of appropriate treatment according to guidelines were investigated.

RESULTS

Data were available on 29,179 patients. Maori and Pacific participants had high rates of obesity, poor glycaemic control and albuminuria. Two thirds of all participants with previous CVD (68% of Maori and 70% of Pacific) and 44% with high CVD risk received appropriate CVD treatment; 73% of Maori, 62% of Pacific and 65% of European patients with albuminuria received ACE-inhibitors. Those with high CVD risk were more likely, and those that were young were less likely, to receive anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment after controlling for other factors.

CONCLUSION

Maori and Pacific people were receiving similar high rates of appropriate CVD and renal preventive drug therapy to Europeans, but their prevalence of smoking, obesity, raised HbA1c and albuminuria were substantially higher. Non-drug components of preventive care also need to be addressed to reduce major ethnic disparities in diabetes-related morbidity and mortality in New Zealand.