[Economic evaluation of the introduction of 4CMenB (Bexsero®) in the national vaccine schedule in Spain]

INTRODUCTION

Bexsero® (4CMenB), meningococcal B vaccine, was licensed in Europe in 2013. In Spain, despite MenB being the most frequent cause of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), Bexsero® is recommended and financed for patients at increased risk of IMD but is not financed by the NHS in the routine vaccination schedule.

OBJECTIVE

to evaluate the cost-utility, epidemiological impact, and total costs of the introduction of 4CMenB into the vaccination schedule to help inform vaccine policy in Spain.

METHOD

We adapted a cost-utility analysis, a probabilistic decision-tree, to Spain. A cohort of new-born infants in 2015 was modelled with two dosages, using two different strategies: routine vaccination schedule with 4CMenB and non-vaccination. Costs were measured from a payer perspective and benefits were calculated in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A Monte Carlo analysis and 32 scenarios were performed to assess the robustness and the uncertainty of our results.

RESULTS

With the 3+1 dosage, routine vaccination prevented 54% of cases and deaths and an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of 351.389 €/QALY (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 265,193-538,428) was estimated. The 2+1 dosage prevented 50% of cases and deaths, with an ICUR of 278.556 €/QALY (95%CI: 210,285-430,122).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the current incidence of invasive meningococcal disease in Spain and the information available from 4CMenB, our model shows that routine vaccination is not cost-effective at the current price. Only with a vaccine price of 1.45 € for the 3+1 schedule or 3.37 € for the 2+1 schedule could it be recommended based on efficiency criteria.

Comprehensive biomarker analyses identifies HER2, EGFR, MET RNA expression and thymidylate synthase 5'UTR SNP as predictors of benefit from S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy in Japanese patients with stage II/III gastric cancer

Purpose: A comprehensive molecular analysis was conducted to identify prognostic and predictive markers for adjuvant S-1 chemotherapy in stage II/III Japanese gastric cancer (GC) patients and to evaluate their potential suitability for alternative cytotoxic or targeted drugs.

Experimental Design: We investigated genetic polymorphisms of enzymes potentially involved in 5-fluoruracil (5-FU) metabolism as well as platinum resistance, previously identified genomic subtypes potentially predicting 5-FU benefit, and mRNA expression levels of receptor tyrosine kinases and KRAS as potential treatment targets in a single institution cohort of 252 stage II/III GC patients treated with or without S-1 after D2 gastrectomy.

Results: 88% and 62% GC had a potentially 5-FU sensitive phenotype by SNP analyses of TS 3'UTR, and TS 5'UTR, respectively. 24%, 46%, 40%, 5%, and 44% GC had a potentially platinum sensitive phenotype by SNP analyses of GSTP1, ERCC1 rs11615, ERCC1 rs3212986, ERCC2, and XRCC1, respectively. High HER2, EGFR, FGFR2, or MET mRNA expression was observed in 49%, 66%, 72%, and 54% GC, respectively. High HER2 expression was the only significant prognosticator (HR=3.912, 95%CI: 1.706-8.973, p=0.0005). High HER2 (p=0.031), low EGFR (p=0.124), high MET (p=0.165) RNA expression, and TS 5'UTR subtype 2R/2R, 2R/3C, or 3C (p=0.058) were significant independent predictors for S-1 resistance.

Conclusions: The present study suggests that platinum-based or RTK targeted agents could be alternative treatment options for a substantial subgroup of Japanese GC patients currently treated with S-1. HER2, EGFR, MET, and TS 5'UTR SNP appear to be promising predictive markers for S-1 resistance warranting validation in an independent GC series.

P2679Normal high sensitive troponin I and suspected myocardial infarction, is the rapid rule out algorythm for all?

Introduction

Since the introduction of High sensitive troponin assays, many studies showed that patients presenting to the ED with cardiac chest pain and HsTnI under 5 ng/dl have very good prognosis and extremely low risk for major cardiovascular events at follow up. These studies led to a few rapid rule out algorythms for MI according to undetectable HsTnI in first hours following admission.

Purpose

The aim of the study was to examine whether a maximal HsTnI under 5 ng/dl, in a hemodynamicaly stable patient, is sufficient to discharge a patient without further testing.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of patients admitted to the emergency depatment due to suspected myocardial infarction between February 2016 and December 2018. All patients had a HsTnI under 5 ng/dl and were either discharged home or admitted for further observation and testing. The collection of data was performed by the MDCLONE software from the electronic medical records in our medical center.

Results

Between February 2016 and December 2018, 10,936 patients were admitted to the emergency department due to chest pain or suspected MI. In 7925 (72%) the maximal HsTnI value was under 5 ng/dl. Group 1 included 6699 (85%) patients who did not undergo any further test and group 2 included 1226 (15%) who were admitted for further testing. Further testing included Coronary CT in 999 (81%) and Stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in 227 (19%). 11 patients underwent both tests. Out of the 999 patients examined with coronary CT, 114 (11%) needed further evaluation with coronary angiogiography and 41 required angioplasty and stening. 18 (7%) patients that were evaluated using stress MPI needed angio and 7 (3%) required stenting.

Comparing the group 1 and 2, patients who went through further testing were more likely to be older, with higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertenstion, smoking history and after CABG in the past. Group 1 had 0.07%, 0.16% and 0.33% all cause mortality in 30, 90 and 360 days respectivly. Group 2 had no mortality in 30 and 90 days, and 0.25% all cause mortality in 360 days. No statistical significance was reached in all time points.

There was no difference in re-admissions in the first 90 days after discharge between the groups.

Conclusions

Based on our data, patients admitted to the emergency department due to suspected myocardial infarction and known cardiovascular risk factors but with HsTnI under the 5 ng/dl, the use of rapid rule out algorithms may be questionable.

Acknowledgement/Funding

None

Beyond the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal

The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) shows the probability that an option ranks first for net benefit. Where more than two options are under consideration, the CEAC offers only a partial picture of the decision uncertainty. This paper discusses the appropriateness of showing the full set of rank probabilities for reporting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal (MTA). A case study is used to illustrate the calculation of rank probabilities and associated metrics, based on Monte Carlo simulations from a decision model. Rank probabilities are often used to show uncertainty in the results of network meta-analysis, but until now have not been used for economic evaluation. They may be useful decision-making tools to complement the CEAC in specific MTA contexts.

Cost-effectiveness of lenalidomide maintenance in patients with multiple myeloma who have undergone autologous transplant of hematopoietic progenitor cells

The objective of this article is to analyze the ratio of cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of lenalidomide treatment in patients with multiple myeloma who have undergone autologous transplant in Spain. The analyses were based on clinical trials CALGB 100104 and IFM 2005-02, from the perspective of the National Health System. The alternatives compared were the treatment with lenalidomide against maintenance without treatment (MwT). Efficiency measures used were years of life gained (YGs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). According to the CALGB 100104 trial data, the average health costs of patients who were treated with lenalidomide for 120 months was €836,534.31 and without treatment was €528,963.63. The effectiveness of the lenalidomide group was 7.59YGs (5.72 QALY) against 6.58 of MwT (4.61 QALY). The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was €277,456.72/QALY and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €303,191.05/YGs. From the analysis, the IFM2005-02 trial obtained 5.13 QALY in the lenalidomide group against the 4.98 QALY in the MwT group, with an ICUR of €1,502,780.55/QALY. In terms of budgetary impact, a range between 799 and 1452 patients susceptible to receive treatment with lenalidomide was assumed in Spain. In conclusion, the results show a high ICUR and budgetary impact, which adds uncertainty about the maximum prudent duration of the treatment.

Fast and accurate tumor segmentation of histology images using persistent homology and deep convolutional features

Tumor segmentation in whole-slide images of histology slides is an important step towards computer-assisted diagnosis. In this work, we propose a tumor segmentation framework based on the novel concept of persistent homology profiles (PHPs). For a given image patch, the homology profiles are derived by efficient computation of persistent homology, which is an algebraic tool from homology theory. We propose an efficient way of computing topological persistence of an image, alternative to simplicial homology. The PHPs are devised to distinguish tumor regions from their normal counterparts by modeling the atypical characteristics of tumor nuclei. We propose two variants of our method for tumor segmentation: one that targets speed without compromising accuracy and the other that targets higher accuracy. The fast version is based on a selection of exemplar image patches from a convolution neural network (CNN) and patch classification by quantifying the divergence between the PHPs of exemplars and the input image patch. Detailed comparative evaluation shows that the proposed algorithm is significantly faster than competing algorithms while achieving comparable results. The accurate version combines the PHPs and high-level CNN features and employs a multi-stage ensemble strategy for image patch labeling. Experimental results demonstrate that the combination of PHPs and CNN features outperform competing algorithms. This study is performed on two independently collected colorectal datasets containing adenoma, adenocarcinoma, signet, and healthy cases. Collectively, the accurate tumor segmentation produces the highest average patch-level F1-score, as compared with competing algorithms, on malignant and healthy cases from both the datasets. Overall the proposed framework highlights the utility of persistent homology for histopathology image analysis.

The price of innovation - the role of drug pricing in financing pharmaceutical innovation. A conceptual framework

The debate on drug prices has reached new heights with the controversy around the role of prices in promoting innovation. Critics claim that prices of innovative drugs are excessive and argue that lowering prices will not harm the flourishing innovation. On the opposite end, the pharmaceutical industry insists that restrictive pricing policies will have a detrimental impact on their ability to generate innovation. Amid these two divergent positions, this manuscript presents a conceptual framework to better understand the role played by drug prices to influence the ability of pharmaceutical firms to raise money in capital markets and hence finance pharmaceutical innovation. We argue that deviations from established value-based pricing principles, by either firms or payers, will distort access by firms to capital and lead to an undesirable level of innovation in the long term. We hope that this framework helps policy-makers anticipate the impact of their proposals, and ultimately guide policies towards setting optimal drug prices as a means to maximise social welfare.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality in healthy adults or those at high risk of CVD.

METHODS

An umbrella review about primary prevention of non-pharmacological interventions was undertaken in key databases as PubMed Health, Effective Health Care Program AHRQ, McMaster University and the Cochrane Plus until July 2017. The primary outcomes were the relative risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events, and mortality. Secondary outcomes were adverse events.

RESULTS

Twenty-four reviews were included of which thirteen reported outcomes of interest. Four of these found a pooled statistically significant risk reduction: dietary supplements of vitamin D, increased consumption of omega 3 fatty acids, Qigong, and counselling or education to modify more than one cardiovascular risk factor. Seven studies reported adverse events but minor or insignificant with respect to the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Four non-pharmacological interventions have been shown to provide a statistically significant reduction in risk of CVD events or overall mortality, with minor adverse events if any. Further research should aim for higher methodological quality and longer follow-up of interventions to establish if these interventions, alone or in combination, translate into definite long-term health benefits.

Comparing costs of microsurgical resection and stereotactic radiosurgery for vestibular schwannoma

OBJECTIVE

Given rising scrutiny of healthcare expenditures, understanding intervention costs is increasingly important. This study aimed to compare and characterize costs for vestibular schwannoma (VS) management with microsurgery and radiosurgery to inform practice decisions and appraise cost reduction strategies.

METHODS

In conjunction with medical records, internal hospital financial data were used to evaluate costs. Total cost was divided into index costs (costs from arrival through discharge for initial intervention) and follow-up costs (through 36 months) for 317 patients with unilateral VSs undergoing initial management between June 2011 and December 2015. A retrospective matched cohort based on tumor size with 176 patients (88 undergoing each intervention) was created to objectively compare costs between microsurgery and radiosurgery. The full sample of 203 patients treated with resection and 114 patients who underwent radiosurgery was used to evaluate a broad range of outcomes and identify cost contributors within each intervention group.

RESULTS

Within the matched cohort, average index costs were significantly higher for microsurgery (100% by definition, because costs are presented as a percentage of the average index cost for the matched microsurgery group; 95% CI 93-107) compared to radiosurgery (38%, 95% CI 38-39). Microsurgery had higher average follow-up costs (1.6% per month, 95% CI 0.8%-2.4%) compared to radiosurgery (0.5% per month, 95% CI 0.4%-0.7%), largely due to costs incurred in the initial months after resection. A major contributor to total cost and cost variability for both resection and radiosurgery was the need for additional interventions in the follow-up period, which were necessary due to complications or persistent functional deficits. Although tumor size was not associated with increased total costs for radiosurgery, linear regression analysis demonstrated that, for patients who underwent microsurgery, each centimeter increase in tumor maximum diameter resulted in an estimated increase in total cost of 50.2% of the average index cost of microsurgery (95% CI 34.6%-65.7%) (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.17). There were no cost differences associated with the proportion of inpatient days in the ICU or with specific surgical approach for patients who underwent resection.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the largest assessment to date based on internal cost data comparing VS management with microsurgery and radiosurgery. Both index and follow-up costs are significantly higher when tumors were managed with resection compared to radiosurgery. Larger tumors were associated with increased resection costs, highlighting the incremental costs associated with observation as the initial management.

Cost-effectiveness of a primary care-based exercise intervention in perimenopausal women. The FLAMENCO Project

OBJECTIVE

Adequate physical activity levels and a healthy lifestyle may prevent all kinds of non-communicable diseases, promote well-being and reduce health-care costs among perimenopausal women. This study assessed an exercise programme for perimenopausal women.

METHOD

A total of 150 women (aged 45-64 years) not engaged in regular physical activity were randomly assigned to either a 16 week exercise intervention or to the control group. The study was conducted from the perspective of the National Health System. Health outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), measured by the EuroQol-5D-5L questionnaire. The total direct costs of the programme were the costs of visits to primary care, specialty care, emergency, medicines, instructor cost and infrastructure cost. The results were expressed as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to test the robustness of the analysis.

RESULTS

Mean QALYs over 16 weeks were.228 in the control group and.230 in the intervention group (mean difference: .002; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: -0.005 to 0.009). Improvements from baseline were greater in the intervention group in all dimensions of the EuroQol-5D-5L but not statistically significant. The total costs at the end of the intervention were 160.38 € in the control group and 167.80 € in the intervention group (mean difference: 7.42 €; 95%CI: -47 to 62). The exercise programme had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 4,686 €/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The programme could be considered cost-effective, although the overall difference in health benefits and costs was very modest. Longer term follow-up is needed.

Novel digital signatures of tissue phenotypes for predicting distant metastasis in colorectal cancer

Distant metastasis is the major cause of death in colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients at high risk of developing distant metastasis could benefit from appropriate adjuvant and follow-up treatments if stratified accurately at an early stage of the disease. Studies have increasingly recognized the role of diverse cellular components within the tumor microenvironment in the development and progression of CRC tumors. In this paper, we show that automated analysis of digitized images from locally advanced colorectal cancer tissue slides can provide estimate of risk of distant metastasis on the basis of novel tissue phenotypic signatures of the tumor microenvironment. Specifically, we determine what cell types are found in the vicinity of other cell types, and in what numbers, rather than concentrating exclusively on the cancerous cells. We then extract novel tissue phenotypic signatures using statistical measurements about tissue composition. Such signatures can underpin clinical decisions about the advisability of various types of adjuvant therapy.

[What does the decision to opt for private health insurance reveal about public provision?]

OBJECTIVE

This study examines individuals' choice of private health insurance in Spain. Private health insurance choices reveal the attributes of health care most highly valued by the population, and the perceived responsiveness of the public system in delivering those preferences.

METHOD

The paper exploits the 2004, 2009 and 2014 waves of the national Health Barometer survey, examining the health insurance choice separately for the general population and a small but influential sector of elite public-sector employees who can opt out from the public health system (civil servants).

RESULTS

Public healthcare is a highly regarded provider in terms of technology and doctor training, even by those who chose private health insurance, but falls short in terms of amenities such as comfort and speed of attendance. These findings confirm well-known strengths and criticisms of the public system. However, the study also finds that citizens are concerned about the performance of the public sector in key domains of health system responsiveness, such as personal contact and information and these concerns also influence their decision to opt for private provision. Finally, civil servants, even the minority who opted for public provision, tend to have a lower opinion of the public health service than non-civil servants, especially in terms of personal contact, information, primary care and specialist care.

CONCLUSIONS

These perceptions and concerns of the public about the performance of the public health service will be of interest for policy makers and should be investigated further.

Cost-Effectiveness of Current and Emerging Treatments of Varicose Veins

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the cost-effectiveness of current technologies (conservative care [CONS], high-ligation surgery [HL/S], ultrasound-guided foam sclerotherapy [UGFS], endovenous laser ablation [EVLA], and radiofrequency ablation [RFA]) and emerging technologies (mechanochemical ablation [MOCA] and cyanoacrylate glue occlusion [CAE]) for treatment of varicose veins over 5 years.

METHODS

A Markov decision model was constructed. Effectiveness was measured by re-intervention on the truncal vein, re-treatment of residual varicosities, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 5 years. Model inputs were estimated from systematic review, the UK National Health Service unit costs, and manufacturers' list prices. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

CONS has the lowest overall cost and quality of life per person over 5 years; HL/S, EVLA, RFA, and MOCA have on average similar costs and effectiveness; and CAE has the highest overall cost but is no more effective than other therapies. The incremental cost per QALY of RFA versus CONS was £5,148/QALY. Time to return to work or normal activities was significantly longer after HL/S than after other procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

At a threshold of £20,000/QALY, RFA was the treatment with highest median rank for net benefit, with MOCA second, EVLA third, HL/S fourth, CAE fifth, and CONS and UGFS sixth. Further evidence on effectiveness and health-related quality of life for MOCA and CAE is needed. At current prices, CAE is not a cost-effective option because it is costlier but has not been shown to be more effective than other options.

Cost-effectiveness of treatments for superficial venous reflux in patients with chronic venous ulceration

Background

Venous leg ulcers impair quality of life significantly, with substantial costs to health services. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of interventional procedures alongside compression therapy versus compression therapy alone for the treatment of chronic venous leg ulceration.

Methods

A Markov decision analytical model was developed. The main outcome measures were quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs) and lifetime costs per patient, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service at 2015 prices. Resource use included the initial procedures, compression therapy, primary care and outpatient consultations. The interventional procedures included superficial venous surgery, endothermal ablation and ultrasound‐guided foam sclerotherapy (UGFS). The study population was patients with a chronic venous ulcer who were eligible for either compression therapy or an interventional procedure. Data were obtained from systematic review and meta‐analysis of RCTs.

Results

Surgery gained 0·112 (95 per cent c.i. −0·011 to 0·213) QALYs compared with compression therapy alone, with a difference in lifetime costs of €−1330 (−3570 to 1262). Given the expected savings in community care, the procedure would pay for itself within 4 years. There was insufficient evidence regarding endothermal ablation and UGFS to draw conclusions.

Discussion

This modelling study found surgery to be more effective and less costly than compression therapy alone. Further RCT evidence is required for both endothermal ablation and UGFS.

Decision uncertainty and value of further research: a case-study in fenestrated endovascular aneurysm repair for complex abdominal aortic aneurysms

Background

Fenestrated endovascular aneurysm repair (fEVAR) is a new approach for complex abdominal aortic aneurysms, limited to a few specialist centers, with limited evidence base. We developed a cost-effectiveness decision model of fEVAR compared to open surgical repair (OSR) to investigate the likely direction of costs and benefits and inform further research projects on this technology.

Methods

A systematic review with meta-analysis and a four-state Markov model were used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of fEVAR versus OSR. We used a recent coverage with evidence development framework to characterize the main sources of uncertainty and inform decisions about the type of further research that would be most worthwhile and feasible.

Results

Seven observational comparative studies were identified, of which four presented odds ratios adjusted for confounders. The odds ratios for operative mortality varied widely between studies. Assuming a central estimate of the odds ratio of 0.54 (95% CI 0.05–6.24), the decision model estimated that the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) was £74,580/QALY with a probability of 9 and 16% of being cost-effective at standard cost-effectiveness thresholds of £20,000/QALY and £30,000/QALY, respectively. The Expected Value of Perfect Information over 10 years at a threshold of £20,000/QALY was £11.2 million. Operative mortality contributed to most of the uncertainty in the decision model.

Conclusions

In the case of “maturing technologies”, decision modelling indicates the likely direction of costs and benefits and guides the development of further research projects. In our analysis of fEVAR versus OSR, decision uncertainty, particularly around operative mortality, might be effectively resolved by a short-term RCT, or possibly a well-conducted comparative observational study. Decision makers may consider that a conditional coverage decision is warranted with assessments required to make this type of recommendation depending on local priorities and circumstances.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12962-018-0098-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Glandular Morphometrics for Objective Grading of Colorectal Adenocarcinoma Histology Images

Determining the grade of colon cancer from tissue slides is a routine part of the pathological analysis. In the case of colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRA), grading is partly determined by morphology and degree of formation of glandular structures. Achieving consistency between pathologists is difficult due to the subjective nature of grading assessment. An objective grading using computer algorithms will be more consistent, and will be able to analyse images in more detail. In this paper, we measure the shape of glands with a novel metric that we call the Best Alignment Metric (BAM). We show a strong correlation between a novel measure of glandular shape and grade of the tumour. We used shape specific parameters to perform a two-class classification of images into normal or cancerous tissue and a three-class classification into normal, low grade cancer, and high grade cancer. The task of detecting gland boundaries, which is a prerequisite of shape-based analysis, was carried out using a deep convolutional neural network designed for segmentation of glandular structures. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was trained using shape features derived from BAM. Through cross-validation, we achieved an accuracy of 97% for the two-class and 91% for three-class classification.

Compulsive Addiction-like Aggressive Behavior in Mice

BACKGROUND

Some people are highly motivated to seek aggressive encounters, and among those who have been incarcerated for such behavior, recidivism rates are high. These observations echo two core features of drug addiction: high motivation to seek addictive substances, despite adverse consequences, and high relapse rates. Here we used established rodent models of drug addiction to determine whether they would be sensitive to "addiction-like" features of aggression in CD-1 mice.

METHODS

In experiments 1 and 2, we trained older CD-1 mice to lever press for opportunities to attack younger C57BL6/J mice. We then tested them for relapse to aggression seeking after forced abstinence or punishment-induced suppression of aggression self-administration. In experiment 3, we trained a large cohort of CD-1 mice and tested them for choice-based voluntary suppression of aggression seeking, relapse to aggression seeking, progressive ratio responding, and punishment-induced suppression of aggression self-administration. We then used cluster analysis to identify patterns of individual differences in compulsive "addiction-like" aggressive behavior.

RESULTS

In experiments 1 and 2, we observed strong motivation to acquire operant self-administration of opportunities to aggress and relapse vulnerability during abstinence. In experiment 3, cluster analysis of the aggression-related measures identified a subset of "addicted" mice (∼19%) that exhibited intense operant-reinforced attack behavior, decreased likelihood to select an alternative reinforcer over aggression, heightened relapse vulnerability and progressive ratio responding, and resilience to punishment-induced suppression of aggressive behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

Using procedures established to model drug addiction, we showed that a subpopulation of CD-1 mice demonstrate "addiction-like" aggressive behavior, suggesting an evolutionary origin for compulsive aggression.

Hyper-Stain Inspector: A Framework for Robust Registration and Localised Co-Expression Analysis of Multiple Whole-Slide Images of Serial Histology Sections

In this paper, we present a fast method for registration of multiple large, digitised whole-slide images (WSIs) of serial histology sections. Through cross-slide WSI registration, it becomes possible to select and analyse a common visual field across images of several serial section stained with different protein markers. It is, therefore, a critical first step for any downstream co-localised cross-slide analysis. The proposed registration method uses a two-stage approach, first estimating a fast initial alignment using the tissue sections' external boundaries, followed by an efficient refinement process guided by key biological structures within the visual field. We show that this method is able to produce a high quality alignment in a variety of circumstances, and demonstrate that the refinement is able to quantitatively improve registration quality. In addition, we provide a case study that demonstrates how the proposed method for cross-slide WSI registration could be used as part of a specific co-expression analysis framework.

Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography in Central Retinal Vein Occlusion: Correlation Between the Foveal Avascular Zone and Visual Acuity

PURPOSE

To investigate the relationship between best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and the foveal avascular zone (FAZ) in patients with central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) evaluated with optical coherence angiography (OCT-A).

METHODS

The study was a prospective consecutive case series including 24 patients with CRVO. All patients received either aflibercept or ranibizumab intravitreal injections prior to analysis. Best-corrected visual acuity and FAZ were evaluated in eyes without macular edema. The FAZ areas were evaluated with OCT-A in both the superficial and deep capillary plexus layers by using 3 × 3-mm images of the macula. Disruption of the ellipsoid zone (EZ) was also analyzed.

RESULTS

The mean superficial FAZ area measured 0.76 mm2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-1.13). The mean deep FAZ area measured 1.12 mm2 (95% CI 0.77-1.47). In a multivariable analysis a negative correlation was found between the BCVA and the superficial FAZ area (r = -0.54, P = 0.03). The correlation between the BCVA and deep FAZ area did not meet statistical significance (r = -0.43, P = 0.09). In a multivariable analysis, disruption of the ellipsoid zone was significantly correlated to a larger superficial FAZ area (r = 0.68, P = <0.001) and poor visual acuity (r = 0.75, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Optical coherence tomography-A is a novel technique that allows segmented evaluation of the FAZ in patients with CRVO providing additional prognostic information. The FAZ areas were enlarged both in the superficial and the deep capillary networks. A significant correlation was found between BCVA and the FAZ area in CRVO patients without macular edema (ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02274259).

A Procedure for Deriving Formulas to Convert Transition Rates to Probabilities for Multistate Markov Models

For health-economic analyses that use multistate Markov models, it is often necessary to convert from transition rates to transition probabilities, and for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and other purposes it is useful to have explicit algebraic formulas for these conversions, to avoid having to resort to numerical methods. However, if there are four or more states then the formulas can be extremely complicated. These calculations can be made using packages such as R, but many analysts and other stakeholders still prefer to use spreadsheets for these decision models. We describe a procedure for deriving formulas that use intermediate variables so that each individual formula is reasonably simple. Once the formulas have been derived, the calculations can be performed in Excel or similar software. The procedure is illustrated by several examples and we discuss how to use a computer algebra system to assist with it. The procedure works in a wide variety of scenarios but cannot be employed when there are several backward transitions and the characteristic equation has no algebraic solution, or when the eigenvalues of the transition rate matrix are very close to each other.

Characterising Uncertainty in the Assessment of Medical Devices and Determining Future Research Needs

Decisions about the adoption of medical interventions are informed by evidence on their costs and effects. For a range of reasons, evidence relating to medical devices may be limited. The decision to adopt a device early in its life cycle when the evidence base is least mature may impact on the prospects of acquiring further evidence to reduce uncertainties. Equally, rejecting a device will result in no uptake in practice and hence no chance to learn about performance. Decision options such as 'only in research' or 'approval with research' can overcome these issues by allowing patients early access to promising new technologies while limiting the risks associated with making incorrect decisions until more evidence or learning is established. In this paper, we set out the issues relating to uncertainty and the value of research specific to devices: learning curve effects, incremental device innovation, investment and irrecoverable costs, and dynamic pricing. We show the circumstances under which an only in research or approval with research scheme may be an appropriate policy choice. We also consider how the value of additional research might be shared between the manufacturer and health sector to help inform who might reasonably be expected to conduct the research needed. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simultaneous automatic scoring and co-registration of hormone receptors in tumor areas in whole slide images of breast cancer tissue slides

Automation of downstream analysis may offer many potential benefits to routine histopathology. One area of interest for automation is in the scoring of multiple immunohistochemical markers to predict the patient's response to targeted therapies. Automated serial slide analysis of this kind requires robust registration to identify common tissue regions across sections. We present an automated method for co-localized scoring of Estrogen Receptor and Progesterone Receptor (ER/PR) in breast cancer core biopsies using whole slide images. Regions of tumor in a series of fifty consecutive breast core biopsies were identified by annotation on H&E whole slide images. Sequentially cut immunohistochemical stained sections were scored manually, before being digitally scanned and then exported into JPEG 2000 format. A two-stage registration process was performed to identify the annotated regions of interest in the immunohistochemistry sections, which were then scored using the Allred system. Overall correlation between manual and automated scoring for ER and PR was 0.944 and 0.883, respectively, with 90% of ER and 80% of PR scores within in one point or less of agreement. This proof of principle study indicates slide registration can be used as a basis for automation of the downstream analysis for clinically relevant biomarkers in the majority of cases. The approach is likely to be improved by implantation of safeguarding analysis steps post registration. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Modeling the costs and long-term health benefits of screening the general population for risks of cardiovascular disease: a review of methods used in the literature

BACKGROUND

Strategies for screening and intervening to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in primary care settings need to be assessed in terms of both their costs and long-term health effects. We undertook a literature review to investigate the methodologies used.

METHODS

In a framework of developing a new health-economic model for evaluating different screening strategies for primary prevention of CVD in Europe (EPIC-CVD project), we identified seven key modeling issues and reviewed papers published between 2000 and 2013 to assess how they were addressed.

RESULTS

We found 13 relevant health-economic modeling studies of screening to prevent CVD in primary care. The models varied in their degree of complexity, with between two and 33 health states. Programmes that screen the whole population by a fixed cut-off (e.g., predicted 10-year CVD risk >20 %) identify predominantly elderly people, who may not be those most likely to benefit from long-term treatment. Uncertainty and model validation were generally poorly addressed. Few studies considered the disutility of taking drugs in otherwise healthy individuals or the budget impact of the programme.

CONCLUSIONS

Model validation, incorporation of parameter uncertainty, and sensitivity analyses for assumptions made are all important components of model building and reporting, and deserve more attention. Complex models may not necessarily give more accurate predictions. Availability of a large enough source dataset to reliably estimate all relevant input parameters is crucial for achieving credible results. Decision criteria should consider budget impact and the medicalization of the population as well as cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Short-term efficacy and safety of new biological agents targeting the interleukin-23-T helper 17 pathway for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

A new generation of biologics targeting the interleukin-23-T helper 17 pathway has been developed. This study aimed to assess the short-term effectiveness and safety of these new agents using a network meta-analysis. Twenty-seven randomized clinical trials (10 629 patients) were identified by a comprehensive systematic literature review (PROSPERO 2015: CRD42015025472). Quality of evidence was assessed following Cochrane-compliant rules and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach. Efficacy and safety outcomes at weeks 10-16 were compared using a random-effects network meta-analysis within a frequentist framework to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) of direct and indirect comparisons among the therapeutic options. There were six direct drug-to-drug comparisons in the network, with a high degree of consistency between the direct and indirect evidence. From the available evidence, infliximab 5 mg kg^-1 every 8 weeks [OR 118·89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 60·91-232·04] and secukinumab 300 mg every 4 weeks (OR 87·07, 95% CI 55·01-137·82) are shown to be among the most effective short-term treatments, but are ranked as the biologics most likely to produce any adverse event or an infectious adverse event, respectively. Ustekinumab 90 mg every 12 weeks, the third most efficacious treatment (OR 73·67, 95% CI 46·97-115·56), was the only agent that did not show increased risk of adverse events compared with placebo. Treatment recommendations should also consider long-term outcomes and costs.

Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of New Pharmaceuticals in Epilepsy in Adults: The Results of a Probabilistic Decision Model

Epilepsy currently affects more than 400,000 people in the United Kingdom and 2.3 million in the United States. Drug therapy is the mainstay of treatment for patients with epilepsy, but therapies vary widely in their mechanism of action and acquisition cost. This article describes a decision model developed for the National Institute for Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom. It compares the long-term cost-effectiveness of drugs licensed in adults for use in 3 situations: monotherapy for newly diagnosed patients, monotherapy for refractory patients, and combination therapy for refractory patients. The analysis separately considers the treatment of partial and generalized seizures. The full range of pharmaceutical therapies feasibly used in the UK health system was included in the analysis. The analysis showed that, on the basis of existing evidence, for newly diagnosed patients with partial seizures, carbamazepine and valproate are likely to be the most cost-effective mono-therapies. Carbamazepine is likely to be the most cost-effective 2nd-line monotherapy for refractory patients, and oxcarbazepine would probably be the most cost-effective adjunctive therapy for refractory patients if the willingness to pay for additional health benefits is greater than £18,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). For patients with generalized seizures, valproate is most likely to be cost-effective for newly diagnosed patients. For refractory patients, adjunctive topiramate is more cost-effective than monotherapy alone if the willingness to pay for additional health benefits is greater than £35,000 per QALY. There is, however, considerable uncertainty regarding these results. Some of the methodological features of the study will be of value in designing cost-effectiveness analyses of other therapies for chronic conditions. These include the methods used to deal with the absence of head-to-head trial data and the need to reflect time dependency in Markov transition probabilities.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Treatments for Chronic Disease: Using R to Incorporate Time Dependency of Treatment Response

When constructing decision-analytic models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative treatments, we often need to extrapolate beyond the available experimental data, as these typically relate to a limited period starting from the initiation of a new treatment or the diagnosis of the current disease state. We may also be required to extrapolate beyond the available experimental evidence to compare potential treatment sequences. Markov models are often used for this extrapolation. These models have the defining assumption that future transition probabilities are independent of past transitions. This means that, in general, transition probabilities cannot be conditional of the time spent in a given state. Where data exist to show that the risks of transition are conditional on the time spent in the treatment state, the simplifying Markov assumption can result in a loss in the model’s “face validity,” and misleading results might be generated. Several methods are available to incorporate time dependency into transition probabilities based on standard methods and software. These include the inclusion of tunnel states in Markov models and patient-level simulation, where a series of individual patients are simulated. This article considers the features and limitations of these methods and also describes a novel approach to building time dependency into a Markov model by incorporating an additional time dimension resulting in a “semi-Markov” model. An example of the implementation of such a model, using the R statistical programming language, is illustrated using a cost-effectiveness model for new epilepsy therapies.

Vitamin D Deficiency in Patients with Central Retinal Vein Occlusion: A Case Control Study

PURPOSE

Central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) has been shown to occur more often in winter/spring season. We aimed to evaluate if patients with CRVO have more vitamin D deficiency compared to matched controls.

METHODS

Prospective match controlled study of 72 patients with CRVO and 144 matched controls. All new CRVO cases presenting at St. Erik Eye Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden during the study period were approached to participate. Statistics Sweden provided randomly selected controls matched for age, gender, and season. The first 18 cases of CRVO and 36 controls for each of the four seasons were included and blood was drawn for 25-OH vitamin D analysis (25(OH)D).

RESULTS

About half of the patients (51.4%) in the CRVO group had vitamin D deficiency [25(OH)D < 50 nmol/l] as compared to 39.3% in the control group [odds ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-2.94]. The mean concentrations of serum 25(OH)D were 55.3 nmol/l (95% CI 48.4-62.2) in the study group and 59.8 nmol/l (95% CI 55.4-64.2) in the control group (p = 0.28). In stratified analysis, the CRVO patients under 75 years had significantly lower 25(OH)D levels than the matched controls (47.8 nmol/l vs. 59.0 nmol/l, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency is common in patients with CRVO. No significant differences in vitamin deficiency or 25(OH)D levels were found in comparison to the control group. However, the CRVO patients under 75 years had significantly lower 25(OH)D levels as compared to the control group.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Bevacizumab in Advanced Ovarian Cancer Using Evidence from the ICON7 Trial

BACKGROUND

Bevacizumab is used extensively in the treatment of cancer, including advanced ovarian cancer, for which results of the International Collaborative Ovarian Neoplasm (ICON) 7 trial have been recently reported. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) recent decision not to recommend bevacizumab for advanced ovarian cancer was not based on evidence related to the unlicensed lower dosage (7.5 mg/kg) of the drug despite its use in the English National Health Service (NHS) and the ICON7 trial.

OBJECTIVE

To report on the findings of an analysis that considered whether the lower dose is cost-effective.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis is assessed from the perspective of the English NHS and health outcomes expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The analysis focuses on a clinically predefined high-risk subgroup of the ICON7 trial. The price at which the lower dose of bevacizumab could be considered cost-effective for the English NHS is presented for a range of scenarios to inform decisions about price negotiations by international health systems.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, bevacizumab has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £48,975 per additional QALY, which is above NICE's standard cost-effectiveness threshold (£20,000-£30,000 per QALY). The official price of bevacizumab in 2013 was between £2.31 and £2.63 per milligram. A price reduction of between 46% and 67%, dependent on the NICE threshold, would be required for the product to be cost-effective in the high-risk subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower dose of bevacizumab for advanced ovarian cancer is not cost-effective based on the product's list price and using NICE's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Significant price discounts would be needed to make the drug affordable to the NHS.

Robust normalization protocols for multiplexed fluorescence bioimage analysis

study of mapping and interaction of co-localized proteins at a sub-cellular level is important for understanding complex biological phenomena. One of the recent techniques to map co-localized proteins is to use the standard immuno-fluorescence microscopy in a cyclic manner (Nat Biotechnol 24:1270–8, 2006; Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:11982–7, 2013). Unfortunately, these techniques suffer from variability in intensity and positioning of signals from protein markers within a run and across different runs. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize protocols for preprocessing of the multiplexed bioimaging (MBI) data from multiple runs to a comparable scale before any further analysis can be performed on the data. In this paper, we compare various normalization protocols and propose on the basis of the obtained results, a robust normalization technique that produces consistent results on the MBI data collected from different runs using the Toponome Imaging System (TIS). Normalization results produced by the proposed method on a sample TIS data set for colorectal cancer patients were ranked favorably by two pathologists and two biologists. We show that the proposed method produces higher between class Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and lower within class KL divergence on a distribution of cell phenotypes from colorectal cancer and histologically normal samples.

NanoString expression profiling identifies candidate biomarkers of RAD001 response in metastatic gastric cancer

Background

Gene expression profiling has contributed greatly to cancer research. However, expression-driven biomarker discovery in metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) remains unclear. A gene expression profile predicting RAD001 response in refractory GC was explored in this study.

Methods

Total RNA isolated from 54 tumour specimens from patients with mGC, prior to RAD001 treatment, was analysed via the NanoString nCounter gene expression assay. This assay targeted 477 genes representing 10 different GC-related oncogenic signalling and molecular subtype-specific expression signatures. Gene expression profiles were correlated with patient clinicopathological variables.

Results

NanoString data confirmed similar gene expression profiles previously identified by microarray analysis. Signature I with 3 GC subtypes (mesenchymal, metabolic and proliferative) showed approximately 90% concordance where the mesenchymal and proliferative subtypes were significantly associated with signet ring cell carcinoma and the WHO classified tubular adenocarcinoma GC, respectively (p=0.042). Single-gene-level correlations with patient clinicopathological variables showed strong associations between FHL1 expression (mesenchymal subtype) and signet ring cell carcinoma, and NEK2, OIP5, PRC1, TPX2 expression (proliferative subtype) with tubular adenocarcinoma (adjusted p<0.05). Increased BRCA2 (p=0.040) and MMP9 (p=0.045) expression was significantly associated with RAD001 good response and longer progression-free survival outcome (BRCA2, p=0.012, HR 0.370 95% CI (0.171 to 0.800); MMP9, p=0.010, HR 0.359 95% CI (0.166 to 0.779)). In contrast, increased BTC (p=0.035) expression was significantly associated with RAD001 poor response and poor progression-free survival (p=0.031, HR 2.336 95% CI (1.079 to 5.059) by univariate Cox regression analysis.

Conclusions

Microarray results are highly reproducible with NanoString nCounter gene expression profiling. Additionally, BRCA2 and MMP9 expression are potential predictive biomarkers for good response in RAD001-treated mGC.

Anti-metastatic action of FAK inhibitor OXA-11 in combination with VEGFR-2 signaling blockade in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

The present study sought to determine the anti-tumor effects of OXA-11, a potent, novel small-molecule amino pyrimidine inhibitor (1.2 pM biochemical IC(50)) of focal adhesion kinase (FAK). In studies of cancer cell lines, OXA-11 inhibited FAK phosphorylation at phospho-tyrosine 397 with a mechanistic IC(50) of 1 nM in TOV21G tumor cells, which translated into functional suppression of proliferation in 3-dimensional culture with an EC(50) of 9 nM. Studies of OXA-11 activity in TOV21G tumor-cell xenografts in mice revealed a pharmacodynamic EC(50) of 1.8 nM, indicative of mechanistic inhibition of pFAK [Y397] in these tumors. OXA-11 inhibited TOV21G tumor growth in a dose-dependent manner and also potentiated effects of cisplatin on tumor cell proliferation and apoptosis in vitro and on tumor growth in mice. Studies of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in RIP-Tag2 transgenic mice revealed OXA-11 suppression of pFAK [Y397] and pFAK [Y861] in tumors and liver. OXA-11 given daily from age 14 to 17 weeks reduced tumor vascularity, invasion, and when given together with the anti-VEGFR-2 antibody DC101 reduced the incidence, abundance, and size of liver metastases. Liver micrometastases were found in 100 % of mice treated with vehicle, 84 % of mice treated with OXA-11, and 79 % of mice treated with DC101 (19-24 mice per group). In contrast, liver micrometastases were found in only 52 % of 21 mice treated with OXA-11 plus DC101, and those present were significantly smaller and less numerous. Together, these findings indicate that OXA-11 is a potent and selective inhibitor of FAK phosphorylation in vitro and in vivo. OXA-11 slows tumor growth, potentiates the anti-tumor actions of cisplatin and--when combined with VEGFR-2 blockade--reduces metastasis of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in RIP-Tag2 mice.

Novel Humanitarian Aid Program: The Glivec International Patient Assistance Program-Lessons Learned From Providing Access to Breakthrough Targeted Oncology Treatment in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Imatinib was the first targeted therapy approved for the treatment of cancer. With its approval, it was immediately clear to Novartis that this breakthrough therapy would require an innovative approach to worldwide access, with special consideration of low- and middle-income countries. Lack of government reimbursement, universal health care, or health insurance coverage, few trained specialty physicians or diagnostic services, and poor health care infrastructure were, and continue to be, contributing barriers to access to treatment in low- and middle-income countries. The Glivec International Patient Assistance Program (GIPAP) is an international drug donation program established by Novartis Pharma AG and implemented in partnership with The Max Foundation, a nonprofit, nongovernmental organization. GIPAP was established in 2001, essentially in parallel with the first approval of imatinib for chronic myeloid leukemia. Since 2001, GIPAP has made imatinib accessible to all medically and financially eligible patients within 80 countries on an ongoing basis as long as their physicians prescribe it and no other means of access exists. To date, more than 49,000 patients have benefited from GIPAP, and 2.3 million monthly doses of imatinib have been approved through the program. GIPAP represents an innovative drug donation model that has set the standard for access programs for other targeted or innovative therapies. The purpose of this article is to describe the structure of GIPAP, as well as important lessons that have contributed to the success of the program. This article may assist other companies with the development of successful and far-reaching patient assistance programs in the future.

Review of delirium in the pediatric intensive care unit

Delirium is an acute neuropsychiatric syndrome reflecting serious cerebral dysfunction. The characteristic core symptoms of delirium include the inability to direct, focus, sustain, and shift attention; abnormalities of the sleep-wake cycle; impaired consciousness and awareness; disturbance of thought processes; and behavioral dyscontrol. Delirium is particularly prevalent in critically ill and post-operative patients in the intensive care unit, and may result from hypoxia or infection. It is most likely in the most severely ill, and length of stay is prolonged, and morbidity and mortality and higher with delirium. A variety of clinical instruments have been developed to facilitate the diagnosis of delirium. The Delirium Rating Scale, and its 1998 revision (DRS and DRS-R98) are for psychiatrists to use and are based on DSM criteria. The Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method, adapted for pediatric patients in the ICU (pCAM-ICU), is designed for non-psychiatrists and nurses in the intensive care unit. The Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium scale (PAED) is the basis for the Cornell Assessment of Pediatric Delirium (CAP-D), and both are for nurses and doctors in the pediatric ICU to use to identify delirium in their patients. Delirium is typically multifactorial and its pathogenesis reflects neurotransmitter changes associated with metabolic and inflammatory processes. Benzodiazepines and anticholinergic drugs, including opioids and antihistamines, are widely used in the pediatric ICU and may precipitate or exacerbate delirium. Benzodiazepines especially are best used sparingly, in the lowest dose possible, if at all. The treatment of delirium is predicated on detecting and addressing its underlying cause, which usually results in its rapid resolution. Environmental interventions may ameliorate the risk for delirium, and drugs which may precipitate or worsen delirium should be avoided. Antipsychotics can provide benefit in managing agitation, perceptual disturbances, sleep-wake cycle abnormalities, and behavioral dyscontrol. Atypical antipsychotics, including olanzapine, risperidone, and quetiapine, have largely replaced haloperidol in newer approaches to management because of lower risk for adverse side effects. The risk for delirium may be mitigated by vigilance, and awareness of its presentation, pathogenesis, and management. Its prevention will be of significant benefit in reducing morbidity, improving outcome, and providing comfort to these very ill and fragile children.