Prognostic value of Child-Turcotte criteria in medically treated cirrhosis

The Child- Turcotte criteria (CTC) (based on serum bilirubin and albumin, ascites, neurological disorder and nutrition) are established prognostic factors in patients with cirrhosis having portacaval shunt surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CTC in conservatively treated cirrhosis. Patients (n = 245) with histologically verified cirrhosis from a control group of a controlled clinical trial were studied. Data at entry into the trial were used to classify patients according to CTC. Survival curves for up to 16 years were made, and survival rates were compared using the log-rank test. Survival decreased significantly with increasing degree of abnormality (A----B----C) of albumin (p less than 0.001), ascites (p less than 0.001), bilirubin (p = 0.02) and nutritional status (p = 0.03). Survival was insignificantly influenced by neurological status (p = 0.11) probably because none of the patients had hepatic coma at entry into the trial. The five variables in CTC were combined to a score. With increasing score, the median survival time decreased from 6.4 years (score 5) to 2 months (scores 12 or more). Furthermore, the mortality from hepatic failure, gastrointestinal bleeding or hepatocellular carcinoma increased significantly with increasing score. CTC provide valuable and easily obtainable prognostic information in cirrhosis. However, CTC are inferior to a prognostic index based on multivariate analysis of prognostic factors.

Prognostic factors in cirrhosis identified by Cox's regression model

In a controlled clinical trial in 488 patients with chronic liver disease treated with prednisone or placebo, survival data were analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards model. A total of 162 variables were screened separately for prognostic and/or therapeutic effect by log-rank analyses, whereby 46 clinical, biochemical, serological, and histological variables were isolated. Another five variables traditionally found to be important in patients with liver disease were included. After extensively checking the assumptions of the model, the 51 variables were, by a step-wise procedure, reduced to a final model. It comprised, besides a treatment indicator, 12 variables with significant (p less than 0.05) prognostic or therapeutic effect. The following eight variables had a significant prognostic effect: sex, age, prothrombin, acetylcholinesterase, eosinophil leucocytes in liver parenchyma, liver cell necrosis, inflammation in liver connective tissue, and efferent veins in parenchymal nodules. A prognostic index based on the final model is formed allowing calculation of 5 years survival probability. The usefulness of the prognostic index was tested by a cross-validation method, and no statistical significant difference was found between the estimated and observed survivorship functions.

Conversion of micronodular cirrhosis into macronodular cirrhosis

The conversion from micro- to macronodular cirrhosis is claimed to be a general phenomenon. In this study, the conversion was quantitated by means of liver needle follow-up biopsies and autopsy in 156 patients followed in a controlled clinical trial of prednisone treatment in cirrhosis. In the initial biopsy, 75 patients were classified as micronodular cirrhosis, and of them, 68 had macronodular cirrhosis at autopsy indicating a conversion ratio of about 0.9 in 10 years. This may overestimate the true conversion ratio slightly since conversion in many cases only was demonstrated at autopsy where the diagnosis of macronodular cirrhosis is made with greater certainty than from a needle biopsy. The median time interval between the diagnosis of micro- and macronodular cirrhosis was 2.25 years which is a maximum estimate of the conversion time due to irregular spacing between biopsies (or biopsy and autopsy). No significant difference was found between the conversion time in females and males. The conversion was faster in patients not drinking alcohol compared to patients drinking alcohol, but the difference was not significant. Prednisone treatment tended to accelerate the conversion, but not significantly.

Main causes of death in cirrhosis

The main causes of 436 deaths among 532 patients with cirrhosis followed up for up to 16 years constituted liver failure (24%), liver failure with gastrointestinal bleeding (13%), gastrointestinal bleeding (14%), primary liver cell carcinoma (4%), other liver-related causes (2%), infections (7%), cardiovascular diseases (22%), extrahepatic malignancies (9%), and other non-liver-related causes (5%). Totally, 57% died of liver-related causes. A high frequency of liver-related death was found among patients with a short observation time, high biochemical activity, pronounced change in liver architecture, ascites, and other signs of a poor prognosis at the time of diagnosis. The findings favoured the hypothesis that cirrhosis of the liver is a disease with an initial active and a subsequent inactive phase. Half of the patients were treated with prednisone, but this had no detectable influence on the distribution of causes of or on the frequency of single causes of death as infections or gastrointestinal bleeding. The group of patients responding favourably to prednisone treatment with regard to survival (non-alcoholic women without ascites) showed causes of death not different from those of the total material.

The accuracy of the clinical diagnosis in acute hepatitis and alcoholic liver disease. Clinical versus morphological diagnosis

Microfilms were prepared from the case histories of 357 consecutive patients submitted to liver biopsy for the first time so that all information after the time of the liver biopsy was erased. The microfilms were assessed by four clinicians, and the pre-biopsy diagnostic proposals were graded according to the degree of certainty and were compared with the results of the liver biopsies. Out of 357 patients, 200 had a history of alcoholism, of whom 172 had alcohol-induced changes in the liver biopsies: 80 cases of alcoholic cirrhosis, 84 cases of steatosis, and 8 cases of alcoholic hepatitis without cirrhosis. In 65 of the 80 patients with biopsy-verified alcoholic cirrhosis the clinical pre-biopsy diagnosis was in agreement with the histological findings. In 51 cases in which the clinical diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis was given as moderately certain or very certain, 4 clinically incorrect diagnoses occurred. No incorrect diagnoses occurred in the 35 cases in which the clinicians claimed the greatest diagnostic accuracy. In the 84 patients with steatosis in the liver biopsies the clinicians felt uncertain or moderately certain about all but 2 patients, and 14 incorrect diagnoses occurred. In none of the 8 patients with histological alcoholic hepatitis without cirrhosis was a correct clinical diagnosis made. The clinical pre-biopsy diagnosis of acute hepatitis was in agreement with the results of the liver biopsies in 52 out of 57 patients. In 51 cases in which the clinical diagnosis of acute hepatitis was given as moderately certain or very certain, 1 clinically incorrect diagnosis occurred.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Ultrasonography, computed tomography, and cholescintigraphy in suspected obstructive jaundice--a prospective comparative study

In order to compare their capacity to visualize the bile ducts, ultrasonography, computed tomography, and cholescintigraphy were performed in 56 consecutive jaundiced patients in whom extrahepatic cholestasis was clinically suspected. The predictions as to the patency of the large bill ducts were compared with the final diagnoses made on the basis of direct cholangiography together with autopsy, biopsy, operative findings, and the clinical course. Thirty-nine patients (70%) had obstructed bile ducts, and 17 (30%) had patent large bile ducts. Using a simple scoring scale with 112 points as the maximum, ultrasonography obtained 72 points, computed tomography received 56 points, and cholescintigraphy totalled 37 points. Nonsignificant trends were found in favor of ultrasonography as compared with computed tomography and of computed tomography as compared with cholescintigraphy (p greater than 0.05), whereas ultrasonography was significantly better than cholescintigraphy (p = 0.01). However, because computed tomography is expensive and may imply a higher number of secondary direct cholangiographies than ultrasonography, we recommend ultrasonography as the first choice for noninvasive bile duct visualization. Computed tomography is an alternative method, whereas cholescintigraphy cannot be recommended.

Oral testosterone load related to liver function in men with alcoholic liver cirrhosis

The relation between liver function and an oral testosterone load was examined in 42 consecutive patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Administration of an oral load of 400 mg micronized free testosterone increased the serum concentration of testosterone (range, 31.9-694.4 nmol/l; median, 140.8 nmol/l) in male patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis to significantly (P less than 0.01) higher levels than in male subjects without liver disease (range, 25.4-106.6 nmol/l; median, 61.5 nmol/l). The increase of testosterone after the load (log delta testosterone) in patients correlated inversely with galactose elimination capacity (r = 0.54; P less than 0.001), serum albumin (r = -0.53; P less than 0.001), plasma factor II + VII + X (r = 0.62; P less than 0.001), indocyanine green clearance (r = -0.71; P less than 0.001), and hepatic blood flow (r = -0.61; P less than 0.01) and correlated directly with wedged-to-free hepatic vein pressure (r = +0.54; P less than 0.01). The increase of testosterone after the load did not correlate significantly with sex hormone-binding globulin (r = +0.35; P greater than 0.05). It is concluded that the hepatic extraction of testosterone is significantly decreased in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. This decrease seems to be due to decreased liver function, decreasing hepatic blood flow, and increased portosystemic shunting. Oral testosterone loading may therefore be of prognostic significance in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

Peritoneovenous shunt in treatment of ascites in patients with cirrhosis. A preliminary report with special reference to pathophysiology

Peritoneovenous shunts (LeVeen type) were implanted in seven patients with cirrhosis complicated by ascites refractory to diuretic treatment. Three patients died of gastrointestinal bleeding and hepatic coma 1 to 7 weeks after the shunt implantation. The patients who died were those with the most severely impaired liver and kidney function. In two of the four surviving patients (observation time, 5-24 months) the shunt was patent during the observation time, and ascites disappeared. In the other two the shunt closed, in one patient repeatedly following several re-implantations. Enhanced urinary sodium excretion was observed in patients with patent shunts. After disappearance of ascites, the splanchnic venous pressures became less deranged. Long-term change in plasma volume or circulating albumin mass could not be detected. A patent shunt increases the drainage from the peritoneal cavity, but detectable increment in the overall lymph drainage was only found in a patient with a very low pre-shunt value. The findings do not support the 'overflow' theory of ascites formation but rather the 'lymph imbalance' theory. For clinical evaluation of peritoneovenous shunting in the treatment of ascites a controlled clinical trial is essential.

The significance of the HBe system in an area highly endemic for hepatitis B virus

A group of 164 consecutive patients with chronic liver disease and 60 healthy HBsAg carriers were investigated in an area highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV). Eighty-two of the 164 patients (50%) were found to be HBsAg-positive and only 39 (24%) had no HBV markers. A statistically significant correlation was found in the HBsAg-positive patients between the HBe system, their age and the time which had elapsed since their acute episode. Thus, the prevalence of HBeAg decreased with increasing age and with increasing time since their acute episodes. Furthermore, a statistically significant correlation was found between the presence of HBeAg and active chronic liver disease. Of the patients with chronic active hepatitis with or without cirrhosis, all patients below the age of 13 years were HBsAg-positive and 72% were also HBeAg-positive. The data suggest that the HBeAg-positivity in HBsAg carriers is of limited duration and that the seroconversion from HBeAg to anti-HBe is related to a histologically less active or inactive stage of the disease.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and transhepatic cholangiography in patients with suspected obstructive jaundice. A randomized study

To establish principles for choosing between endoscopic retrograde and percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography, we randomized 52 consecutive jaundiced patients with clinically suspected obstructive jaundice. The bile ducts were visualized in 85% by the endoscopic and in 84% by the transhepatic route. A conclusive diagnosis was reached in 89% and 68% of the patients, respectively, but the difference is not significant (0.10 less than P less than 0.20). If the planned type of cholangiography failed, the other method was tried. By comparing the total numbers of investigations, a conclusive diagnosis was achieved in 91% by endoscopic and 69% by transhepatic route, which is significantly different (P less than 0.05). We therefore prefer to do endoscopic cholangiography initially with transhepatic cholangiography as the complementary method.

Prednisone and chronic liver disease. II. Clinical versus morphological criteria for selection of patients for prednisone treatment

A prospective, unblinded, randomized trial of treatment of cirrhosis and chronic aggressive hepatitis (CAH) with prednisone included 484 patients who were divided using both the clinical criteria: non-alcoholic females without ascites, and the morphological criterion: presence of a liver biopsy showing CAH. A total of 164 patients (34%) satisfied the three clinical criteria and biopsies from 95 patients (20%) showed CAH. By a cross-tabulation method between the two sets of criteria, four groups were formed. Evaluation of the treatment effect by means of relative death rate showed that the clinical criteria identified both a group of patients with a beneficial effect of prednisone (p less than 0.05) and a group with a harmful effect of the treatment (p less than 0.05). Patients with CAH also had a significant beneficial treatment effect, but patients without CAH showed only an insignificantly harmful effect of treatment. Patients fulfilling both sets of criteria had a beneficial effect of prednisone (p less than 0.05) and patients lacking both sets had a significantly harmful treatment effect. A significantly better survival was found in patients satisfying the clinical criteria without CAH in the biopsy than in patients with CAH and not fulfilling the clinical criteria (p = 0.03). In both the groups of patients with disagreement between the two sets of criteria, a trend towards a beneficial effect of prednisone was found. It is concluded that the simple clinical criteria in comparison with the histological criteria identify a larger group of patients with a beneficial effect of treatment.

Prednisone treatment of chronic liver disease. I. Chronic aggressive hepatitis as a therapeutic marker

A liver biopsy material comprising 477 biopsies from 477 patients included in a prospective, unblinded, randomized trial of treatment of cirrhosis with prednisone has been re-evaluated using new and more restrictive histological criteria for the diagnosis of cirrhosis and chronic aggressive hepatitis (CAH). The material was divided according to the likelihood of cirrhosis being present: (A) cirrhosis (287 patients), (B) probably cirrhosis (101 patients) and (C) compatible with but not diagnostic for cirrhosis (89 patients). Each group was further divided according to the presence (I) or absence (II) of CAH. A total of 98 patients fulfilled the histological criteria for CAH. The effect of prednisone concerning survival was evaluated in each group. In the total group of patients with CAH a significant beneficial effect of prednisone was found (p = 0.04). Among these patients the subgroup with cirrhosis in addition (group I A) also showed a significant effect of prednisone, while groups I B and I C only had a trend towards a beneficial effect (p = 0.44 and p = 0.36, respectively). In patients without CAH in the biopsy (Group II, A + B + C), no effect of prednisone was seen although a trend towards a harmful effect was found in patients with cirrhosis (Group II A). Control patients with CAH in all three subgroups had an insignificantly shorter survival than patients without CAH. All the CAH groups significantly more often included female patients with no history of alcoholism and a lower frequency of spider naevi. In addition, the CAH groups were more active as judged by biochemical and histological variables. It was further disclosed that the presence of large piecemeal necroses indicated a favourable effect of prednisone treatment, while alcoholism, ascites and male sex acted as indicators for an unfavourable treatment effect.

Fatal outcome after jejunoileal bypass for obesity

A review of all literature on jejunoileal bypass for obesity disclosed 282 deaths, corresponding to a mortality rate of 4.2 percent. This rate has been fairly constant through the last 8 years. The causes of death and the postoperative duration are quantified. Pulmonary embolism, mostly early, and liver disease, sometimes late, dominate among the numerous causes of death. Details are too scarcely reported to allow guidance to better results.

Aspects of the natural history of gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhosis and the effect of prednisone

The natural history of gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhosis has been studied using prospectively collected data of 532 patients included in a randomized clinical trial with a regular follow-up of up to 12 yr. Of the total 199 patients who experienced gastrointestinal bleeding, 95 (48%) bled from esophageal or gastric varices, 67 (34%) bled from peptic ulcer or gastritis, and 37 (18%) had either insufficient evidence of the source (33) or mixed sources (4). In the total group of patients the cumulative percentage of patients in whom varices had been demonstrated of patients in whom varices had been demonstrated by radiography increased from 12 to 90 in 10 yr, while that of bleeding from varices increased from 7 to 40. In 104 patients who bled for the first time during the trial period (trial bleeding patients) the median number of bleeding episodes was one (range 1-8). In these patients the fatality from bleeding from varices was 82%. The risk of rebleeding from varices was 81%, and 4 yr after the first bleeding the cumulative survival had decreased to less than 10%. Rebleeding was significantly less frequent and survival significantly higher in patients bleeding from sources other than varices. Prednisone reduced the occurrence rate of varices, bleeding from varices, and death from bleeding varices in nonalcoholic females without ascites, 40% of whom fulfilled the histologic criteria of chronic active hepatitis. Prednisone significantly increased the occurrence rate of varices inpatient with ascites and of bleeding from varices in alcoholic patients. Prednisone significantly increased the occurrence rate of peptic ulcer in males and in patients without chronic active hepatitis.

Accuracy of direct cholangiography by endoscopic or transhepatic route in jaundice--a prospective study

An exact anatomic diagnosis of bile-duct obstruction is a prerequisite for selecting the appropriate management. In a prospective study on patients with clinically suspected obstructive jaundice, the results of direct cholangiography--by endoscopic retrograde or, alternatively, by transhepatic route--were compared with operative findings or liver biopsy or both. Final diagnoses were based on autopsy, operative biopsy, and clinical course. The study included 105 patients, 90 of whom underwent surgery, and allowed a blind and independent comparison between cholangiography and operative findings. The predictive value of a positive test, i.e., cholangiographic visualization of obstruction, was 0.99 and the predictive value of a corresponding negative test was 0.90, with the final diagnoses as reference. For the operated patients the predictive values were calculated as to obstruction (positive test 0.99, negative test 0.89), malignancy (positive test 0.92, negative test 0.89), and common duct stones (positive test 0.96, negative test 0.98). Thus, laparotomy can be avoided in patients in whom direct cholangiography shows no obstruction or an appropriate nonoperative procedure, like transhepatic insertion of a stent or endoscopic biliary surgery elected.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase as markers of alcohol consumption in out-patient alcoholics

Serum activity of gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase were determined in 316 patients attending an out-patients clinic for treatment of alcoholism. The activity of gamma-glutamyltransferase was raised in 34% and that of aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase in 18% and 7%. Neither the activity of gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase nor alkaline phosphatase showed any significant (P greater than 0.05) correlation with the history of alcohol consumption. The activities of gamma-glutamyltransferase and aspartate aminotransferase were raised significantly more often in patients with recent alcohol consumption than in patients who had abstained for more than 9 days. The concentration of alkaline phosphatase was not significantly (P greater than 0.05) different in these groups. The predictive value of raised and normal activities of gamma-glutamyltransferase, in deciding whether a patient had had recent alcohol consumption or not, was not superior to the predictive value of raised and normal activities of aspartate aminotransferase.

Clinical relevance of restrictive morphological criteria for the diagnosis of cirrhosis in liver biopsies

Material obtained by needle biopsy of the liver from 532 patients with cirrhosis who had previously been examined has been re-evaluated using new and more restrictive histological criteria for the diagnosis of cirrhosis. The material was divided into four main groups: (A) cirrhosis, 287 biopsies; (B) probably cirrhosis, 101 biopsies; (C) compatible with but not diagnostic for cirrhosis, 89 biopsies; and (D) probably not cirrhosis, 11 biopsies. Group E consisted of 44 cases where no or insufficient material was available. The survival curves of the groups were significantly (P less than 0.05) different, with group D having the best survival followed by C, B and A. Clinical and laboratory manifestations of cirrhosis (more than five spider naevi, presence of ascites, daily alcohol intake of more than 50 g) were found significantly (P less than 0.05) more often among patients from group A, followed by patients from groups B, C and D. It is concluded that the more restrictive histological criteria for the diagnosis of cirrhosis in liver biopsies have clinical relevance, due to the prognostic and therapeutic implications of the diagnosis. The study also underlines the importance of specifying the criteria used when studies of patients with cirrhosis are reported.