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Murray GD. The cambridge dictionary of statistics in the medical sciences. B. S. Everitt. 233 × 156 mm. Pp. 277. Illustrated. 1995. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. £12.95. Br J Surg 2005. [DOI: 10.1002/bjs.1800831062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Andz S, Shields DA, Hickey NC, Murray GD. Intermittent claudication incites systemic neutrophil activation and increased vascular permeability. Br J Surg 2005. [DOI: 10.1002/bjs.1800800963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Teasdale GM, Murray GD, Nicoll JAR. The association between APOE ε4, age and outcome after head injury: a prospective cohort study. Brain 2005; 128:2556-61. [PMID: 16033781 DOI: 10.1093/brain/awh595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 164] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Previous preliminary studies have suggested that possession of the APOE epsilon4 allele is associated with a poor outcome after head injury. This study was designed to confirm and extend those observations in a larger study with examination of additional variables. We prospectively identified admissions to a Neurosurgical Unit for head injury, collected demographic and clinical data, determined APOE genotypes and obtained follow-up information at 6 months. A total of 1094 subjects were enrolled (age range: 0-93 years, mean 37 years). Outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. There was no overall association between APOE genotype and outcome, with 36% of APOE epsilon4 carriers having an unfavourable outcome compared with 33% of non-carriers of APOE epsilon4. However, there was evidence of an interaction between age and APOE genotype on outcome (P = 0.007) such that possession of APOE epsilon4 reduced the prospect of a favourable outcome in children and young adults. The influence of APOE genotype in younger patients after head injury can be expressed as, at age <15 years, carriage of APOE epsilon4 being equivalent to ageing by 25 years. This finding is consistent with experimental data suggesting that the effect of APOE genotype on outcome after head injury may be expressed through the processes of repair and recovery.
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Andrews PJD, Harris B, Murray GD. Randomized controlled trial of effects of the airflow through the upper respiratory tract of intubated brain-injured patients on brain temperature and selective brain cooling. Br J Anaesth 2005; 94:330-5. [PMID: 15531619 DOI: 10.1093/bja/aei025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pyrexia is common after brain injury; it is generally believed to affect outcome adversely and the usual clinical methods of reducing temperature are not effective. The normal physiological mechanisms of brain cooling are heat loss from the upper airways and through the skull, and these can produce selective brain cooling. METHODS Air at room temperature and humidity was continuously administered to 15 brain-injured, intubated and mechanically ventilated patients via a sponge-tipped oxygen catheter in each nostril at a combined rate of 115 ml kg(-1) min(-1). Brain temperature was measured using a pressure-temperature Camino catheter which is designed to site the thermistor 1 cm into the parenchyma in the frontal lobe. Oesophageal temperature was measured using an oesophageal stethoscope with a thermistor. After establishing baseline for 30 min, patients were randomized to receive airflow or no airflow for 6 h and then crossed over for a further 6 h. RESULTS Airflow replicating normal resting minute volume did not produce clinically relevant or statistically significant reductions in brain temperature [0.13 (SD 0.55) degrees C; 95% CI, 0.43-0.17 degrees C]. However, we serendipitously found some evidence of selective brain cooling via the skull, but this needs further substantiation. CONCLUSIONS A flow of humidified air at room temperature through the upper respiratory tracts of intubated brain-injured patients did not produce clinically relevant or statistically significant reductions in brain temperature measured in the frontal lobe.
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Bellenger NG, Rajappan K, Rahman SL, Lahiri A, Raval U, Webster J, Murray GD, Coats AJS, Cleland JGF, Pennell DJ. Effects of carvedilol on left ventricular remodelling in chronic stable heart failure: a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study. Heart 2004; 90:760-4. [PMID: 15201244 PMCID: PMC1768304 DOI: 10.1136/hrt.2003.015552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/25/2003] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ability of beta blockers to improve left ventricular function has been demonstrated, but data on the effects on cardiac remodelling are limited. OBJECTIVE To investigate, using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), the effects of carvedilol on left ventricular remodelling in patients with chronic stable heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction caused by coronary artery disease. DESIGN Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled study. SETTING Chronic stable heart failure. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTION 34 patients with chronic stable heart failure and left ventricular systolic function taking part in the CHRISTMAS trial (double blind carvedilol v placebo) underwent CMR before randomisation and after six months of treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Left ventricular remodelling at six months. RESULTS The carvedilol and placebo groups were well balanced at baseline, with no significant intergroup differences. Over the study period, there was a significant reduction in end systolic volume index (ESV(I)) and end diastolic volume index (EDV(I)) between the carvedilol and the placebo group (carvedilol -9 v placebo +3 ml/m2, p = 0.0004; carvedilol -8 v placebo 0 ml/m2, p = 0.05). The ejection fraction increased significantly between the groups (carvedilol +3% v placebo -2%, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS Treatment of chronic stable heart failure with carvedilol results in significant improvement in left ventricular volumes and function. These effects might contribute to the benefits of carvedilol on mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure.
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Maas AIR, Marmarou A, Murray GD, Steyerberg EW. Clinical trials in traumatic brain injury: current problems and future solutions. ACTA NEUROCHIRURGICA. SUPPLEMENT 2004; 89:113-8. [PMID: 15335110 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7091-0603-7_16] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Over the past decade many neuroprotective agents have been developed with the hope of being able to improve outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury. Unfortunately, none of the phase III trials performed have convincingly demonstrated efficacy in the overall population. A common misconception is that consequently these agents are ineffective. Such has not been proven and some trials show evidence of efficacy in subgroups of the population studied. The negative results, as reported in the overall population, may in part be caused by specific aspects of the TBI population, as well as by aspects of clinical trial design and analysis. Clinical trials in TBI pose several complicated design issues. Methodological challenges relate particularly to heterogeneity of the population and to outcome assessment. Heterogeneity pertains both to the range of pathologies included in TBI, and to prognostic factors, each causing specific problems. Mechanistic and/or prognostic targeting, as well as possibilities for covariate adjustment, are suggested as possible solutions to deal with the problems of heterogeneity. The aim in most trials was to demonstrate a 10% absolute improvement in favorable outcome in patients with head injury. This may be considered overoptimistic and unrealistic in relation to the heterogeneous patient population. Specific problems are further incurred by the use of the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale as primary outcome measure. Optimal statistical power may expected to be present when the point of dichotomization results in a 50:50 distribution of outcome categories. It is proposed to differentiate the point of dichotomization according to prognostic risk profile, in order to maintain statistical power. Solutions described may be expected to enhance chances of demonstrating benefit of potentially effective neuroprotective agents in future studies. The complexity of problems occurring in clinical trial design and analysis in TBI is such that a strong and sustained multidisciplinary input and effort is required from all experts involved in the field of neurotrauma.
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Mendelow AD, Teasdale GM, Barer D, Fernandes HM, Murray GD, Gregson BA. Outcome assignment in the International Surgical Trial of Intracerebral Haemorrhage. Acta Neurochir (Wien) 2003; 145:679-81; discussion 681. [PMID: 14520548 DOI: 10.1007/s00701-003-0063-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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Millar K, Nicoll JAR, Thornhill S, Murray GD, Teasdale GM. Long term neuropsychological outcome after head injury: relation to APOE genotype. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 2003; 74:1047-52. [PMID: 12876232 PMCID: PMC1738588 DOI: 10.1136/jnnp.74.8.1047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Existing evidence suggests that some patients who sustain a head injury suffer cognitive decline many years later, and that head injury and possession of the APOE epsilon 4 allele are each risk factors for Alzheimer's disease. OBJECTIVE To determine whether late cognitive decline after head injury is more prevalent among carriers of APOE epsilon 4. METHODS A database of head injured patients was used. Initial assessment was at the time of their injury, between 1968 and 1985, and outcome data at six months were available. Their ages at the time of injury ranged between 2 and 70 years. A cohort of 396 subjects was reassessed at a mean of 18 years later, with determination of APOE genotype and detailed neuropsychological testing. RESULTS Judging by the Glasgow outcome scale, twice as many patients had deteriorated as improved between six months after injury and the late assessment; 22.2% of APOE epsilon 4 carriers had a good late outcome compared with 30.5% of non-carriers (95% confidence interval for the difference, -0.7% to 17.2%; p = 0.084). There were no clear differences between epsilon 4 carriers and non-carriers in detailed neuropsychological assessments. CONCLUSIONS Although this study provides additional evidence that a late decline may occur after head injury, there was no clear relation to APOE genotype. Despite the follow up interval of 15 to 25 years, the cohort is still too young (mean age 42.1 years) to assess the risk of Alzheimer's disease.
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Cleland JGF, Pennell DJ, Ray SG, Coats AJ, Macfarlane PW, Murray GD, Mule JD, Vered Z, Lahiri A. Myocardial viability as a determinant of the ejection fraction response to carvedilol in patients with heart failure (CHRISTMAS trial): randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2003; 362:14-21. [PMID: 12853194 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13801-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 183] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The improvement in left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in response to beta blockers is heterogeneous in patients with heart failure due to ischaemic heart disease, possibly indicating variations in the myocardial substrate underlying left-ventricular dysfunction. We investigated whether improvement in LVEF was associated with the volume of hibernating myocardium (viable myocardium with contractile failure). METHODS We did a double-blind, randomised trial to compare placebo and carvedilol for 6 months in individuals with stable, chronic heart failure due to ischaemic left-ventricular systolic dysfunction. We enrolled 489 patients, of whom 387 were randomised. Patients were designated hibernators or non-hibernators according to the volume of hibernating myocardium. The primary endpoint was change in LVEF, measured by radionuclide ventriculography, in hibernators versus non-hibernators, on carvedilol compared with placebo. Analysis was by intention to treat. RESULTS 82 patients dropped out of the study because of adverse events, withdrawal of consent, or failure to complete the investigation. Thus, 305 (79%) were analysed. LVEF was unchanged with placebo (mean change -0.4 [SE 0.9] and -0.4 [0.8] for non-hibernators and hibernators, respectively) but increased with carvedilol (2.5 [0.9] and 3.2 [0.8], respectively; p<0.0001 compared with baseline). Mean placebo-subtracted change in LVEF was 3.2% (95% CI 1.8-4.7; p=0.0001) overall, and 2.9% (0.7-5.1; p=0.011) and 3.6% (1.7-5.4; p=0.0002) in non-hibernators and hibernators, respectively. Effect of hibernator status on response of LVEF to carvedilol was not significant (0.7 [-2.2 to 3.5]; p=0.644). However, patients with more myocardium affected by hibernation or by hibernation and ischaemia had a greater increase in LVEF on carvedilol (p=0.0002 and p=0.009, respectively). INTERPRETATION Some of the effect of carvedilol on LVEF might be mediated by improved function of hibernating or ischaemic myocardium, or both. Medical treatment might be an important adjunct or alternative to revascularisation for patients with hibernating myocardium.
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Reid M, Glazener C, Murray GD, Taylor GS. A two-centred pragmatic randomised controlled trial of two interventions of postnatal support. BJOG 2002; 109:1164-70. [PMID: 12387471 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2002.01306.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To establish whether providing additional postnatal support during the early postnatal months influences women's physical and psychological health and to identify health service benefits. DESIGN Pragmatic randomised controlled trial with a 2 x 2 factorial design with two interventions. SETTING Community centres, Ayrshire and Grampian, Scotland. POPULATION One thousand and four primiparous women, 83% completed the baseline questionnaire, 71% at six months. METHODS (1) An invitation to a local postnatal support group run weekly with a facilitator, starting two weeks postpartum. (2) A postnatal support manual, posted two weeks postpartum. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Data regarding primary outcome postnatal depression (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS), secondary outcomes, general health measures (SF-36), social support (SSQ6), use of health services and women's views of interventions were collected at two weeks postpartum and at three and six months. RESULTS There were no significant differences in EPDS scores between the control and trial arms at three and six months, nor were there differences in the SF-36 and the SSQ6 scores. The 95% CI for the difference in EPDS effectively excluded a change in mean score of more than 10% with either intervention. There were no differences in health service attendances in primary or secondary care between the control and trial arms. Of those women who attended the groups, 40% attended six or more. Women reported favourably on the 'pack' with the majority reading it a few times and feeling that it was aimed at them. CONCLUSIONS Wide-scale provision by the National Health Service of either support groups or self-help manuals is not appropriate if the aim is to improve measurable health outcomes.
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O'Donnell CA, Fullarton GM, Watt E, Lennon K, Murray GD, Moss JG. Randomized clinical trial comparing self-expanding metallic stents with plastic endoprostheses in the palliation of oesophageal cancer. Br J Surg 2002; 89:985-92. [PMID: 12153622 DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2168.2002.02152.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is little evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of self-expanding metallic stents in the palliation of oesophageal cancer. The aims of this randomized trial were to evaluate the immediate and medium-term clinical outcomes following palliative intubation, examine patient quality of life, and evaluate costs and benefits from the perspective of the health service. METHODS Fifty patients with inoperable oesophageal cancer were randomly allocated a metallic stent (n = 25) or plastic endoprosthesis (n = 25). Patients were followed up monthly until death. RESULTS There was no significant difference in procedure-related complications or mortality rate between the two groups. There was a trend towards significance in favour of metallic stents with respect to quality of life and survival (median survival 62 versus 107 days for plastic prosthesis and metallic stent respectively). The cost of the initial placement of metallic stents was significantly higher than that of plastic endoprostheses ( pound 983 versus pound 296). After 4 weeks, cost differences were no longer significant. CONCLUSION Metallic stents may contribute to improved survival and quality of life in patients with oesophageal cancer. Although initially more expensive, this cost difference does not last beyond 4 weeks. A larger trial involving approximately 300 patients would be required to detect a quality of life benefit of the magnitude observed in this trial.
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Wilkinson AG, Sherlock DA, Murray GD. The efficacy of the Pavlik harness, the Craig splint and the von Rosen splint in the management of neonatal dysplasia of the hip. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1302/0301-620x.84b5.0840716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
We have reviewed the outcome of 134 hips in 96 children with Graf type-III or type-IV dysplasia of the hip on ultrasound examination. We treated 28 affected hips in 22 children with the Craig splint, 43 hips in 30 children with the Pavlik harness, and 26 hips in 16 children with the von Rosen splint. A total of 37 affected hips in 28 children was not splinted. All children were less than three months of age at referral. Those treated with the von Rosen splint had a significantly better ultrasound appearance at 12 to 20 weeks of age and fewer radiological abnormalities than those not splinted or treated with the Pavlik harness. In the von Rosen group no hip required further treatment with an abduction plaster or operation compared with ten in the Pavlik harness group, three in the Craig splint group and eight in the group without splintage. Our results suggest that the von Rosen splint is more likely to improve the outcome of neonatal dysplasia of the hip and a definitive, large-scale randomised trial is therefore indicated.
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Sarhadi NS, Reid WH, Murray GD, Williamson J. Flame burn admissions and fire fatalities in Scotland with particular reference to the Strathclyde (Glasgow) region, and their prevention. Burns 2001; 27:731-8. [PMID: 11600253 DOI: 10.1016/s0305-4179(01)00042-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Scotland has the highest rate of fire fatalities in the UK. Nearly 50% of the population and fire deaths in Scotland are in the Strathclyde region. The data from the burns unit at Glasgow Royal Infirmary were studied to find the number of admissions due to flame burns and see how it compared with the fire deaths. During 1981-1993, amongst 2771 admissions to the burns unit, 1181 (43%) were due to flame burns and out of these flame burn victims, 69% were adults, 16% elderly and 15% children. The distribution of cases according to the total body surface area (TBSA) involvement was 866 (73%) with 1-15%, 165 (14%) with 16-30%, and 150 (13%) with > or =31% TBSA burns. The annual number of flame burn admissions declined during 1981-1993. In the Glasgow region 50% of the domestic fires leading to non-fatal burns or to death were started by misuse of smoking materials. Chip pan fires were responsible for 8% of admissions to the burns unit. The annual number of fire fatalities when reviewed for a longer period 1973-1995 also showed a decreasing trend. Further educational and legislative measures to prevent flame burns are discussed.
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Aylin P, Alves B, Best N, Cook A, Elliott P, Evans SJ, Lawrence AE, Murray GD, Pollock J, Spiegelhalter D. Comparison of UK paediatric cardiac surgical performance by analysis of routinely collected data 1984-96: was Bristol an outlier? Lancet 2001; 358:181-7. [PMID: 11476833 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(01)05404-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reports of high mortality after paediatric cardiac surgery at the Bristol Royal Infirmary, UK, led to the establishment of an independent public inquiry. A key question was whether or not the mortality statistics in Bristol were unusual compared with other specialist centres. To answer this question, we did a retrospective analysis of mortality in the UK using two datasets. METHODS Data from the UK Cardiac Surgical Register (CSR; January, 1984, to March, 1996) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES; April, 1991, to December, 1995) were obtained for all 12 major centres in which paediatric cardiac surgery is done in the UK. The main outcome measure was mortality within 30 days of a cardiac surgical procedure. We estimated excess deaths in Bristol using a random-effects model derived from the remaining 11 centres. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was done and case-mix examined. FINDINGS For children younger than 1 year, in open operations, the mortality rate in Bristol was around double that of the other centres during 1991-95: within the CSR, there were 19.0 excess deaths (95% interval 2-32) among 43 deaths; and in HES, there were 24.1 excess deaths (12-34) among 41 deaths recorded. There was no strong evidence for excess mortality in Bristol for closed operations or for open operations in children older than 1 year. INTERPRETATION Our results suggest that Bristol was an outlier, and we do not believe that statistical variation, systematic bias in data collection, case-mix, or data quality can explain a divergence in performance of this size.
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Dunn LT, Stewart E, Murray GD, Nicoll JA, Teasdale GM. The influence of apolipoprotein E genotype on outcome after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage: a preliminary study. Neurosurgery 2001; 48:1006-10; discussion 1010-1. [PMID: 11334266 DOI: 10.1097/00006123-200105000-00007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Possession of an apolipoprotein E (APOE)epsilon4 allele has been shown to be associated with a poor outcome after closed head injury and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage but not after ischemic stroke. This study assessed the influence of the APOE genotype on outcome in patients admitted to a neurosurgical unit with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. METHODS A total of 100 patients with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage were studied. Four patients were excluded because the diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage was not confirmed. The incidence of rehemorrhage and delayed ischemia and the outcome at 6 months were determined using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. APOE genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction and restriction enzyme digestion. RESULTS Allele frequencies in this patient group were 0.04 for epsilon2, 0.86 for epsilon3, and 0.1 for epsilon4. Of 96 patients, 72 had an aneurysmal hemorrhage and 1 had a hemorrhage from an arteriovenous malformation. In 14 patients, the results of angiography were negative, and in 9, no angiogram was performed. Of the 96 patients, 20 had one or more epsilon4 allele. Outcome at 6 months was no worse in patients with one or more epsilon4 allele than in those with no epsilon4 allele (odds ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-2.74). None of the 12 patients who experienced delayed ischemic deterioration had an epsilon4 allele. Of the 20 patients with an epsilon4 allele, 3 had a rehemorrhage, as compared with 6 of 76 patients without an epsilon4 allele. CONCLUSION There was underrepresentation of the epsilon4 allele in this group when compared with previously studied cases of subarachnoid hemorrhage with a fatal outcome and with the general population. This suggests that patients with the epsilon4 allele who have a subarachnoid hemorrhage are less likely to be admitted to a neurosurgical unit. This study does not support an association between possession of an epsilon4 allele and poor outcome in patients admitted to a neurosurgical unit with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage, although the wide confidence interval does not preclude a clinically relevant association between APOE genotype and outcome. The findings indicate that an association between genotype and the development of delayed ischemic complications after subarachnoid hemorrhage may be possible.
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Lewsey JD, Leyland AH, Murray GD, Boddy FA. Using routine data to complement and enhance the results of randomised controlled trials. Health Technol Assess 2001; 4:1-55. [PMID: 11074392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely accepted as the best way to assess the outcomes and safety of medical interventions, but are sometimes not ethical, not feasible, or limited in the generalisability of their results. In such circumstances, routinely available data could help in several ways. Routine data could be used, for example, to conduct 'pseudo-trials', to estimate likely outcomes and required sample size to help design and conduct trials, or to examine whether the expected outcomes observed in an RCT will be realised in the general population. OBJECTIVES The project was undertaken to explore how routinely assembled hospital data might complement or supplement RCTs to evaluate medical interventions: in contexts where RCTs are not feasible for defining the context and design of an RCT for assessing whether the benefits indicated by RCTs are achieved in wider clinical practice. METHODS The project was based on the system of linked Scottish morbidity records, which cover 100% of acute hospital care episodes and statutory death records from 1981 to 1995. Three case studies were undertaken as a way of investigating the utility of these records in different applications. First, an attempt was made to analyse the link between the timing of surgery for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and subsequent outcomes (a question not easily susceptible to RCT design). A subsample was derived by excluding patients for which a diagnosis of SAH may not have been established or that may not have been admitted to a neurosurgical unit, and the data were assessed to attempt to inform the design of a trial of early versus late surgery. Transurethral prostatectomy (TURP), the second case study, has become the surgery of choice for benign prostatic hyperplasia without systematic assessment of its effectiveness and safety, and an RCT would now be considered unethical. However, there is a need to investigate long-term effects and the influence of co-morbidities on outcomes. A retrospective comparison of mortality and re-operation following either open prostatectomy (OPEN) or TURP was, therefore, undertaken. Patients for whom it was not possible to establish the initial procedure were excluded. The third case study compared coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTCA) for coronary revascularisation. RCTs have been conducted in limited patient subgroups with short follow-up periods. A meta-analysis of RCTs could be augmented by routine data, which are available for large populations. This would allow assessment of subgroup effects, and outcomes over a long period. A subgroup of patients was therefore constructed for whom relevant routine data were available and who reflected the entry criteria for major RCTs, thus enabling a comparison between the results expected from this subgroup and those of the general population. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The uses of routine data in these contexts had strengths and weaknesses. The SAH study suggested a means of assessing outcomes and survival rates following haemorrhage, which could have value in informing the design of more precise trials and in evaluating changes in outcome following the introduction of new treatments such as embolisation. However, the potential of the data was not realised because their scope and content were insufficient. For example, lack of data on the time of onset of symptoms and patients' conditions at hospital admission made it difficult to establish the link between timing of surgery and the outcome, and there was insufficient information on patients' conditions at discharge to enable a comparison of outcomes. The prostatectomy study was able to address questions not answered by RCT literature because the large number of cases it included allowed exploration of subgroup effects. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)
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Stocchetti N, Penny KI, Dearden M, Braakman R, Cohadon F, Iannotti F, Lapierre F, Karimi A, Maas A, Murray GD, Ohman J, Persson L, Servadei F, Teasdale GM, Trojanowski T, Unterberg A. Intensive care management of head-injured patients in Europe: a survey from the European brain injury consortium. Intensive Care Med 2001; 27:400-6. [PMID: 11396285 DOI: 10.1007/s001340000825] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES (a) to describe current practice in the monitoring and treatment of moderate and severe head injuries in Europe; (b) to report on intracranial pressure and cerebral perfusion pressure monitoring, occurrence of measured and reported intracranial hypertension, and complications related to this monitoring; (c) to investigate the relationship between the severity of injury, the frequency of monitoring and management, and outcome. METHODS A three-page questionnaire comprising 60 items of information has been compiled by 67 centres in 12 European countries. Information was collected prospectively regarding all severe and moderate head injuries in adults (> 16 years) admitted to neurosurgery within 24 h of injury. A total of 1005 adult head injury cases were enrolled in the study from 1 February 1995 to 30 April 1995. The Glasgow Outcome Scale was administered at 6 months. RESULTS Early surgery was performed in 346 cases (35%); arterial pressure was monitored invasively in 631 (68%), ICP in 346 (37%), and jugular bulb saturation in 173 (18%). Artificial ventilation was provided to 736 patients (78%). Intracranial hypertension was noted in 55% of patients in whom ICP was recorded, while it was suspected in only 12% of cases without ICP measurement. There were great differences in the use of ventilation and CPP monitoring among the centres. Mortality at 6 months was 31%. There was an association between an increased frequency of monitoring and intervention and an increased severity of injury; correspondingly, patients who more frequently underwent monitoring and ventilation had a less favourable outcome. CONCLUSIONS In Europe there are great differences between centres in the frequency of CPP monitoring and ventilatory support applied to head-injured patients. ICP measurement disclosed a high rate of intracranial hypertension, which was not suspected in patients evaluated on a clinical basis alone. ICP monitoring was associated with a low rate of complications. Cases with severe neurological impairment, and with the worse outcome, were treated and monitored more intensively.
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Sharp JC, Murray GD, Macleod DA. A unique insight into the incidence of rugby injuries using referee replacement reports. Br J Sports Med 2001; 35:34-7. [PMID: 11157459 PMCID: PMC1724278 DOI: 10.1136/bjsm.35.1.34] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To obtain further information the incidence of injuries and playing positions affected in club rugby in Scotland. METHODS Routine reports of injury (permanent) and blood (temporary) replacements occurring in competitive club rugby matches by referees to the Scottish Rugby Union during seasons 1990-1991 to 1996-1997 were analysed. RESULTS A total of 3,513 injuries (87 per 100 scheduled matches) and 1,000 blood replacements (34 per 100 scheduled matches) were reported. Forwards accounted for 60% of the injury and 72% of the blood replacements. Flankers and the front row were the most commonly replaced forwards while wing and centre three quarters were the most vulnerable playing positions among backs. The incidence of injury replacements increased as the match progressed up until the last 10 minutes when the trend was reversed. Blood replacements showed a different pattern with 60% occurring during the first half of the match. CONCLUSION The most important finding of the study was reliability of referees in documenting the vulnerability of certain playing positions, and the timing when injuries took place, thus assisting coaches and team selectors when choosing replacement players for competitive club and representative rugby matches. This study re-emphasises the need for continuing epidemiological research.
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Millar K, Asbury AJ, Murray GD. Pre-existing cognitive impairment as a factor influencing outcome after cardiac surgery. Br J Anaesth 2001; 86:63-7. [PMID: 11575412 DOI: 10.1093/bja/86.1.63] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Conventional methodology to investigate cognitive impairment after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery leaves unclear the potential for pre-existing cognitive deficits to influence outcome. Individuals with pre-existing deficits may be more vulnerable to the effects of CABG, hence biasing the results of a typical prospective trial if account is not taken of their state. The present study examined the effect of pre-existing cognitive impairment upon cognitive outcome in 81 patients undergoing CABG. Patients performed the Stroop Neuropsychological Screening Test and other psychometric assessments prior to and at 6 days and 6 months after CABG. Those with pre-existing cognitive deficits were significantly more likely to display impairment at 6-day and 6-month follow-ups than were those without pre-existing deficits. Greater age and lower pre-morbid intelligence were also significant predictors of post-CABG deficit, confirming earlier findings. The results imply both that pre-existing cognitive impairments may render patients more vulnerable to post-operative deficits and that, in the absence of such pre-existing impairments, CABG surgery does not inevitably lead to later deficits. The study also replicated previous findings showing a similar influence of pre-existing depression upon emotional state after CABG. Overall, the results confirm the importance both of a patient's pre-existing cognitive and emotional states, and the methodology to assess them, in influencing outcome after cardiac surgery and the conclusions to be drawn as to the supposed adverse effects of the procedure.
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Shaw MD, Vermeulen M, Murray GD, Pickard JD, Bell BA, Teasdale GM. Efficacy and safety of the endothelin, receptor antagonist TAK-044 in treating subarachnoid hemorrhage: a report by the Steering Committee on behalf of the UK/Netherlands/Eire TAK-044 Subarachnoid Haemorrhage Study Group. J Neurosurg 2000; 93:992-7. [PMID: 11117873 DOI: 10.3171/jns.2000.93.6.0992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
OBJECT Delayed cerebral ischemia remains an important cause of death and disability in patients who have suffered subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Endothelin (ET) has a potent contractile effect on cerebral arteries and arterioles and has been implicated in vasospasm. The authors administered ET(A/B) receptor antagonist (TAK-044) to patients suffering from aneurysmal SAH. They then assessed whether this agent reduced the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemic events and examined its safety profile in this group of patients. METHODS Four hundred twenty patients who had suffered an SAH were recruited into a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group phase II trial. The primary end point was whether a delayed ischemic event occurred within 3 months after the first dose of the study drug and the secondary end points included determining whether a delayed ischemic event occurred by 10 days after the first dose of the study drug, whether a new cerebral infarct was demonstrated on a computerized tomography scan or at postmortem examination by 3 months after administration of the initial dose, the patient's Glasgow Outcome Scale scores at 3 months after the initial dose, and adverse events. There was a lower incidence of delayed ischemic events at 3 months in the TAK-044-treated group: 29.5% compared with 36.6% in a group of patients receiving placebo. The estimated relative risk was 0.8 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.61 to 1.06. There were no significant differences in the secondary end points, including clinical outcomes in the placebo-treated and TAK-044-treated groups. CONCLUSIONS The TAK-044 was well tolerated by patients who had suffered an SAH, even though hypotension and headache--side effects compatible with the drug's vasodilatory properties--occurred. It would be valuable to proceed to a fully powered phase III trial of an ET receptor antagonist in treating aneurysmal SAH.
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Murray GD, Teasdale GM. Quality of randomised controlled trials in head injury. Trials in head injury are more complex than review suggests. BMJ (CLINICAL RESEARCH ED.) 2000; 321:1223. [PMID: 11073525 PMCID: PMC1118970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/18/2023]
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Wilkinson IB, MacCallum H, Rooijmans DF, Murray GD, Cockcroft JR, McKnight JA, Webb DJ. Increased augmentation index and systolic stress in type 1 diabetes mellitus. QJM 2000; 93:441-8. [PMID: 10874053 DOI: 10.1093/qjmed/93.7.441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Type 1 diabetes mellitus is associated with endothelial dysfunction and increased arterial stiffness, both of which may contribute to the excess cardiovascular mortality in such patients. Arterial stiffening increases pulse wave velocity and wave reflection, which augments central systolic pressure and stress. Using the non-invasive technique of pulse wave analysis, we investigated aortic augmentation and central pressure in 35 patients with type 1 diabetes and 35 matched controls. Peripheral pulse waveforms were recorded from the radial artery. Central aortic waveforms were then generated, and augmentation index (AIx), ascending aortic pressure and tension time index (TTI), a measure of systolic load, were calculated. Peripheral and central blood pressure did not differ between the two groups. AIx was significantly elevated in the diabetic patients compared with controls (7.1+/-1.6% vs. 0.4+/-2.0%; p=0.01), as was the TTI (2307+/-51 mmHg x s x min(-1) vs. 2010+/-61 mmHg. s x min(-1); p<0.001). Estimated pulse wave velocity was also higher in the diabetic group. Type 1 diabetes is associated with an increased AIx and rate of wave travel, indicating enhanced wave reflection and increased systemic arterial stiffness, and elevation of the TTI. Such haemodynamic effects may contribute to the increased left ventricular mass and risk of cardiovascular disease associated with type 1 diabetes mellitus.
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Thornhill S, Teasdale GM, Murray GD, McEwen J, Roy CW, Penny KI. Disability in young people and adults one year after head injury: prospective cohort study. BMJ (CLINICAL RESEARCH ED.) 2000; 320:1631-5. [PMID: 10856063 PMCID: PMC27407 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.320.7250.1631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 422] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/15/2000] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the frequency of disability in young people and adults admitted to hospital with a head injury and to estimate the annual incidence in the community. DESIGN Prospective, hospital based cohort study, with one year follow up of sample stratified by coma score. SETTING Five acute hospitals in Glasgow. SUBJECTS 2962 patients (aged 14 years or more) with head injury; 549 (71%) of the 769 patients selected for follow up participated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Glasgow outcome scale and problem orientated questionnaire. RESULTS Survival with moderate or severe disability was common after mild head injury (47%, 95% confidence interval 42% to 52%) and similar to that after moderate (45%, 35% to 56%) or severe injury (48%, 36% to 60%). By extrapolation from the population identified (90% of whom had mild injuries), it was estimated that annually in Glasgow (population 909 498) 1400 young people and adults are still disabled one year after head injury. CONCLUSION The incidence of disability in young people and adults admitted with a head injury is higher than expected. This reflects the high rate of sequelae previously unrecognised in the large number of patients admitted to hospital with an apparently mild head injury.
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