Validation of an RNA cell cycle progression score for predicting death from prostate cancer in a conservatively managed needle biopsy cohort

BACKGROUND

The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict accurately. Better markers are needed to guide management and avoid unnecessary treatment. In this study, we validate the prognostic value of a cell cycle progression score (CCP score) independently and in a prespecified linear combination with standard clinical variables, that is, a clinical-cell-cycle-risk (CCR) score.

METHODS

Paraffin sections from 761 men with clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed by needle biopsy and managed conservatively in the United Kingdom, mostly between 2000 and 2003. The primary end point was prostate cancer death. Clinical variables consisted of centrally reviewed Gleason score, baseline PSA level, age, clinical stage, and extent of disease; these were combined into a single predefined risk assessment (CAPRA) score. Full data were available for 585 men who formed a fully independent validation cohort.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, the CCP score hazard ratio was 2.08 (95% CI (1.76, 2.46), P<10(-13)) for one unit change of the score. In multivariate analysis including CAPRA, the CCP score hazard ratio was 1.76 (95% CI (1.44, 2.14), P<10(-6)). The predefined CCR score was highly predictive, hazard ratio 2.17 (95% CI (1.83, 2.57), χ(2)=89.0, P<10(-20)) and captured virtually all available prognostic information.

CONCLUSIONS

The CCP score provides significant pretreatment prognostic information that cannot be provided by clinical variables and is useful for determining which patients can be safely managed conservatively, avoiding radical treatment.

Validation of an active surveillance threshold for the CCP score in conservatively managed men with localized prostate cancer

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Background: Active surveillance (AS) is an increasingly popular treatment modality for men with localized prostate cancer. However, better risk stratification is needed to appropriately select men for AS. The cell cycle progression (CCP) score has proven to be a robust predictor of prostate cancer outcomes in various clinical settings, including conservatively managed cohorts. Here, we present a validation of an AS threshold for a predefined score that combines CCP with CAPRA (combined clinical CCP risk (CCR) score) for predicting prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in conservatively managed patients. Methods: We determined the CCR score distribution in 505 men who were tested in our clinical laboratory and, based on their clinical characteristics, might typically be considered for AS. Specifically, the training cohort consisted of men who had Gleason score ≤ 3+4; PSA < 10 ng/ml; < 25% cores positive; and clinical stage ≤ T2a. A threshold CCR score of 0.80 was selected such that 90% of the men in the training cohort had scores below the threshold. The performance characteristics of the threshold were then evaluated in two independent cohorts of conservatively managed men (TAPG1 [N= 180] and TAPG2 [N=585]). Survival data were censored at 10 years. Results: The primary pre−planned analysis called for evaluating the CCR threshold on TAPG2. There were 60 men (of 585) below the threshold in the validation cohort and the threshold validated, dichotomizing the cohort into high and low risk groups (log rank P−value = 0.0008). There were no deaths in patients below the threshold and the Cox proportional hazard estimate of 10−year PCM associated with the CCR threshold was 3.3%. The 10−year risk of PCM associated with the threshold in the combined cohort (TAPG1 and TAPG2) was 3.2% and there were no observed prostate cancer deaths in patients below the threshold. Conclusions: For patients considering deferred treatment, the CCR score provides significant prognostic information at disease diagnosis. The threshold presented here was derived from the ‘typical’ risk of PSM for AS patients and can be used to guide patient selection for AS based on an integrated view of risk assessment.

DNA methylation gene-based models indicating independent poor outcome in prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer has a variable clinical behaviour with frequently unpredictable outcome. DNA methylation plays an important role in determining the biology of cancer but prognostic information is scanty. We assessed the potential of gene-specific DNA methylation changes to predict death from prostate cancer in a cohort of untreated men in the UK.

METHODS

This was a population-based study in which cases were identified from six cancer registries in Great Britain. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin wax-embedded transurethral prostate resection tissues collected during 1990-96 from men with clinically-localised cancer who chose not to be treated for at least 6 months following diagnosis. The primary end point was death from prostate cancer. Outcomes were determined through medical records and cancer registry records. Pyrosequencing was used to quantify methylation in 13 candidate genes with established or suggested roles in cancer. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to identify possible predictors for prostate cancer-related death.

RESULTS

Of 367 men, 99 died from prostate cancer during a median of 9.5 years follow-up (max = 20). Univariately, 12 genes were significantly associated with prostate cancer mortality, hazard ratios ranged between 1.09 and 1.28 per decile increase in methylation. Stepwise Cox regression modelling suggested that the methylation of genes HSPB1, CCND2 and DPYS contributed objective prognostic information to Gleason score and PSA with respect to cancer-related death during follow-up (p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Methylation of 13 genes was analysed in 367 men with localised prostate cancer who were conservatively treated and stratified with respect to death from prostate cancer and those who survived or died of other causes. Of the 13 genes analysed, differential methylation of HSPB1, CCND2 and DPYS provided independent prognostic information. Assessment of gene-methylation may provide independent objective information that can be used to segregate prostate cancers at diagnosis into predicted behavioural groups.

Focal amplification of the androgen receptor gene in hormone-naive human prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Androgen receptor (AR)-gene amplification, found in 20-30% of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPCa) is proposed to develop as a consequence of hormone-deprivation therapy and be a prime cause of treatment failure. Here we investigate AR-gene amplification in cancers before hormone deprivation therapy.

METHODS

A tissue microarray (TMA) series of 596 hormone-naive prostate cancers (HNPCas) was screened for chromosome X and AR-gene locus-specific copy number alterations using four-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation.

RESULTS

Both high level gain in chromosome X (≥4 fold; n=4, 0.7%) and locus-specific amplification of the AR-gene (n=6, 1%) were detected at low frequencies in HNPCa TMAs. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation mapping whole sections taken from the original HNPCa specimen blocks demonstrated that AR-gene amplifications exist in small foci of cells (≤ 600 nm, ≤1% of tumour volume). Patients with AR gene-locus-specific copy number gains had poorer prostate cancer-specific survival.

CONCLUSION

Small clonal foci of cancer containing high level gain of the androgen receptor (AR)-gene develop before hormone deprivation therapy. Their small size makes detection by TMA inefficient and suggests a higher prevalence than that reported herein. It is hypothesised that a large proportion of AR-amplified CRPCa could pre-date hormone deprivation therapy and that these patients would potentially benefit from early total androgen ablation.

DNA methylation of PITX2 predicts poor survival in men with prostate cancer

AIM

We investigated if methylation of candidate genes can be useful for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) specific death.

PATIENTS & METHODS

Methylation of PITX2, WNT5a, SPARC, EPB41L3 and TPM4 was investigated in a 1:2 case-control cohort comprising 45 men with cancer of Gleason score ≤ 7 who died (cases), and 90 men who were alive or died of other causes with survival time longer than the cases (controls). A univariate conditional logistic regression model was fitted by maximizing the likelihood of DNA methylation of each gene versus the primary end point.

RESULTS

A 10% increase in methylation of PITX2 was associated with PCa related death with OR 1.56 (95% CI: 1.17-2.08; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Our study strengthens prior findings that PITX2 methylation is useful as a biomarker of poor outcome of PCa and in addition we also suggest that it may be particularly useful in men with low Gleason score.

Prognostic value of PTEN loss in men with conservatively managed localised prostate cancer

Background:

The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict. We report on the prognostic value of phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) loss in a cohort of 675 men with conservatively managed prostate cancer diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate.

Methods:

The PTEN status was assayed by immunohistochemistry (PTEN IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (PTEN FISH). The primary end point was death from prostate cancer.

Results:

The PTEN IHC loss was observed in 18% cases. This was significantly associated with prostate cancer death in univariate analysis (hazard ratio (HR)=3.51; 95% CI 2.60–4.73; P=3.1 × 10⁻¹⁴). It was highly predictive of prostate cancer death in the 50% of patients with a low risk score based on Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease (HR=7.4; 95% CI 2.2–24.6; P=0.012) ), but had no prognostic value in the higher risk patients. The PTEN FISH loss was only weakly associated with PTEN IHC loss (κ=0.5). Both PTEN FISH loss and amplification were univariately predictive of death from prostate cancer, but this was not maintained in the multivariate analyses.

Conclusion:

In low-risk patients, PTEN IHC loss adds prognostic value to Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease.

Prolaris: A novel genetic test for prostate cancer prognosis

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Background: The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict. Improved tools are needed to match treatment more appropriately to a patient’s risk of progression. Therefore, we developed an expression signature composed of genes involved in cell cycle progression (Prolaris) and tested its utility in prostate cancer. Methods: We developed an expression signature composed of 31 cell cycle progression and 15 housekeeper genes. An expression score (Prolaris score) was derived as the mean of all cell cycle progression genes. The signature was tested at disease diagnosis in two conservatively managed cohorts from the UK (N=337 and 349), after radical prostatectomy in two cohorts from the U.S. (N=366 Scott & White Hospital, TX and 413 USCF, CA), and after external beam radiation therapy (N=141) in a cohort from Durham VA Medical Center. All studies were retrospective. Results: The cell cycle progression signature was a highly significant predictor of outcome in all five studies. In conservatively managed patients, the Prolaris score was the dominant variable for predicting death from prostate cancer in univariate analysis (p = 6.1 x 10-22 after diagnosis by TURP, and p = 8.6 x 10-10 after diagnosis by needle biopsy). In both studies, the Prolaris score remained highly significant in multivariate analysis making it a stronger predictor of disease-specific mortality than other prognostic variables. After prostatectomy, Prolaris predicted biochemical recurrence (BCR) in univariate analysis (S&W p = 5.6 x 10-9; UCSF p= 2.23 x 10-6) and provided additional prognostic information in multivariate analysis (S&W p = 3.3 x10-6; UCSF 9.5 x10-5). After radiation therapy, Prolaris predicted BCR (Phoenix) in univariate (p=0.0017) and multivariate analysis (p=0.034). In all five studies the HR per unit change in the Prolaris score was remarkably similar, ranging from 1.89 to 2.92, indicating that the effect size for the Prolaris score is robust to clinical setting and patient composition. Conclusions: The Prolaris test predicts prostate cancer outcome in multiple patient cohorts and diverse clinical settings. In all cases, it provides information beyond clinicopathologic variables to help differentiate aggressive from indolent disease.

Mir143 expression inversely correlates with nuclear ERK5 immunoreactivity in clinical prostate cancer

Background:

Aberrant mitogen/extracellular signal-regulated kinase 5 (MEK5)–extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase 5 (ERK5)-mediated signalling has been implicated in a number of tumour types including prostate cancer (CaP). The mechanism for ERK5 activation in CaP remains to be fully elucidated. Studies have recently implicated the role of microRNA (miRNA) mir143 expression in the regulation of ERK5 expression.

Methods:

We utilised a tissue microarray (TMA) of 530 CaP cores from 168 individual patients and stained for both mir143 and ERK5. These TMAs were scored by a combination of observer and automated methods.

Results:

We observed a strong inverse relation between ERK5 and mir143, which manifested itself most strongly in the subgroup of 417 cores with non-zero mir143 and ERK5 immunoreactivity, or with only one of mir143 or ERK5 being zero (cc=0.2558 and P<0.0001). Mir143 neither correlate with Gleason scores or prostate-specific antigen levels, nor was it a predictor of disease-specific survival on univariate analysis.

Conclusion:

Although the mechanism for ERK5 activation in CaP remains to be fully elucidated, we have further validated the potential role of mir143 in regulating ERK5 levels in the clinical context. In addition, we demonstrate that the automated counting method for nuclear ERK5 is a clinically useful alterative to observer counting method in patient stratification in the context of ERK5 targeting therapy.

Influence of a low-dose cox-2 inhibitor drug on exercise-induced inflammation, muscle damage and lipid peroxidation

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of acute low-dose celecoxib administration on exercise-induced inflammation, muscle damage and lipid peroxidation. Twenty healthy untrained males (age: 25.5±4.5 yrs, weight: 72.7±7.9 kg, height: 177.3±7.2 cm) were randomly assigned to treatment (T) or placebo (P) groups. Blood samples were obtained before, immediately after, 3 h after and 24 h after exercise. Subjects ran for 30 min at 75% V.O₂ max on a treadmill. Participants consumed 100 mg celecoxib or a placebo immediately after and 12 h after the immediately post-exercise blood sample. Total leukocytes, neutrophils, creatine kinase (CK), C-reactive protein (CRP) and malondialdehyde (MDA) were assessed at each time point. Significant increases in total leukocytes and neutrophils were observed 3 h after exercise in both groups (P < 0.05). CK and CRP levels were significantly increased immediately, 3 h and 24 h after exercise in both groups (P < 0.05). A significant increase in MDA was observed immediately after exercise in both groups (P < 0.05); however, no significant group differences were observed for MDA or CK. These findings suggest that inhibition of cyclo-oxygenase activity with low-dose celecoxib does not affect exercise-induced inflammation, muscle damage, or lipid peroxidation.

Prognostic value of Ki-67 for prostate cancer death in a conservatively managed cohort

Background:

Standard clinical parameters cannot accurately differentiate indolent from aggressive prostate cancer. Our previous work showed that immunohistochemical (IHC) Ki-67 improved prediction of prostate cancer death in a cohort of conservatively treated clinically localised prostate cancers diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). Here, we present results in a more clinically relevant needle biopsy cohort.

Methods:

Biopsy specimens were microarrayed. The percentage of Ki-67 positively stained malignant cells per core was measured and the maximum score per individual used in analysis of time to death from prostate cancer using a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results:

In univariate analysis (n=293), the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence intervals) for dichotomous Ki-67 (⩽10%, >10%) was 3.42 (1.76, 6.62) χ² (1 df)=9.8, P=0.002. In multivariate analysis, Ki-67 added significant predictive information to that provided by Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen (HR=2.78 (1.42, 5.46), χ² (1 df)=7.0, P=0.008).

Conclusion:

The IHC Ki-67 scoring on prostate needle biopsies is practicable and yielded significant prognostic information. It was less informative than in the previous TURP cohort where tumour samples were larger and more comprehensive, but in more contemporary cohorts with larger numbers of biopsies per patient, Ki-67 may prove a more powerful biomarker.

Neuroendocrine differentiation does not have independent prognostic value in conservatively treated prostate cancer

In vitro studies have implicated neuroendocrine differentiation in the development of hormone resistant prostate cancer following administration of androgen blockers. Studies on clinical material are equivocal. We wished to understand the significance of neuroendocrine differentiation in our large and well-characterised cohort of clinically localised prostate cancer, treated conservatively. Immunohistochemical expression of chromogranin-A was assessed semi-quantitatively on tissue samples of 806 patients in a tissue microarray approach. The correlation of expression with 10-year prostate cancer survival was examined. Multivariate analysis including contemporary Gleason score was performed and sub-group analysis of early hormone treated patients was also undertaken. Chromogranin-A expression correlated with high Gleason score (χ(2) = 28.35, p < 0.001) and early prostate cancer death (HR = 1.61, 95 %CI = 1.15-2.27, p < 0.001). In univariate analysis, NE differentiation correlated significantly with outcome (HR = 1.61, 95 % CI 1.15-2.27, p < 0.001) However in multivariate analysis including Gleason score, chromogranin-A expression was not an independent predictor of survival (HR = 0.97, 95 %CI = 0.89-1.37, p = 0.87). Although chromogranin-A expression was higher in patients with early hormone therapy (χ(2) = 7.25, p = 0.007), there was no association with prostate cancer survival in this sub-group (p = 0.083). Determination of neuroendocrine differentiation does not appear to have any bearing on the outcome of prostatic carcinoma and does not add to the established prognostic model.