Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

AB1357-HPR DESIGNING THE ROYAL COLLEGE OF NURSING COMPETENCY FRAMEWORK FOR RHEUMATOLOGY NURSES

Background:

The 1st Edition of the RCN Competency Framework for Rheumatology Nurse Specialists (RNS) will be published in March 2020. The role of the RNS is complex, and can include caring for children and young people. The importance of RNS’s was highlighted by the National Rheumatoid Arthritis Society (NRAS 2017). The British Society for Rheumatology (BSR) outlined the need for education, training supervision and work force development. Education for RNS isn’t currently centralized but is key to improving skills and developing workforce for the future. RNS are in short supply resulting in problems of access to services and delays in care (BSR 2019). In all 4 UK nations the titles of RNS and proficiency vary greatly (Titrate trial 2019) This is likely to have an impact on patient experience and outcomes. The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) developed recommendations for the role of the RNS which were recently updated (Beech et al, 2019). This framework maps all of these requirements.

Objectives:

This work supports the development of roles, improve access for patients and reduce. This document will act as a foundation for building sustainability and a more robust education and role development strategy. This work will strengthen rheumatology nursing and support all 4 UK nation’s issues regarding recruitment, retention, sustainability, succession planning and benchmarking. Dissemination is key and we will work hard with stakeholders to ensure centralization of a nationally adopted framework. This abstract submission will increase dissemination opportunities.

Methods:

Online data sources were searched for the most relevant and current evidence. Where research evidence wasn’t available, existing and new knowledge was utilised from a consensus of clinical expert and patient opinions, several rounds of discussions took place virtually and face to face. RCN Rheumatology Nurse Forum Workshop attendees in June 2019 also answered a questionnaire to elicit views and demographic information regarding roles.

Results:

The questionnaire results demonstrated 100% (n37) agreement with the development of the framework and that only 2 respondents had completed a competency process. 60% were RNS. Of these 52% (n13) were band 6, 47% (n9) were band 7, and 1% were band 8 consultant nurses. The questionnaire highlighted the need to develop the framework. Results were fed back to the working party to inform the domains to be included.

Conclusion:

Document will be at BSR 2020 having successfully submitted a session proposal and abstract. Evaluation will begin later in the year 6 to 12 months from launch. We will measure impact using a variety of methods including membership Facebook pages and the questionnaire at point of download request. We will measure where and how the competency is being used and adoption of the framework throughout the UK.

References:

[1]Beech B, Primdahl J, van Tubergen A, et al., (2019) 2019 update of the EULAR recommendations for the role of the nurse in the management of chronic inflammatory arthritis. Ann Rheum Dis.http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-215458 (accessed 13 December 2019). Benner, P (1984) From novice to expert, excellence

[2]British Society of Rheumatology (2019) State of Play, London: BSR. Available at: www. rheumatology.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/ Policy/BSR_State_Of_Play_Scotland2018. pdf?ver=2019-03-11-094117-440 (accessed 13 December 2019).

[3]Martin N, Ibrahim F, Tom B, et al., (2017) Does intensive management improve remission rates in patients with intermediate rheumatoid arthritis? (the TITRATE trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial. Trials. 2017;18:591. doi.org/10.1186/s13063-017-2330-8.

Disclosure of Interests:

Polly Livermore: None declared, Diana Finney Speakers bureau: Nordic

Abbvie, Julie Begum: None declared, Ruth Wyllie: None declared, Trish Cornell Employee of: Consultant Nurse for Abbvie, Helen Smith: None declared, Lisa Howie: None declared, Louise Parker: None declared

Optimal surface estimation and thresholding of confocal microscope images of biofilms using Beer's Law

Beer's Law explains how light attenuates into thick specimens, including thick biofilms. We use a Bayesian optimality criterion, the maximum of the posterior probability distribution, and computationally efficiently fit Beer's Law to the 3D intensity data collected from thick living biofilms by a confocal scanning laser microscope. Using this approach the top surface of the biofilm and an optimal image threshold can be estimated. Biofilm characteristics, such as bio-volumes, can be calculated from this surface. Results from the Bayesian approach are compared to other approaches including the method of maximum likelihood or simply counting bright pixels. Uncertainty quantification (i.e., error bars) can be provided for the parameters of interest. This approach is applied to confocal images of stained biofilms of a common lab strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, stained biofilms of Janthinobacterium isolated from the Antarctic, and biofilms of Staphylococcusaureus that have been genetically modified to fluoresce green.

Risk Factors for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis Admissions

Aim Determine the seasonal incidence of hospital Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) bronchiolitis and explore the variables associated with admission to ward versus the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Method Retrospective case-control study. Children, aged ≤2 years, between November and March, over a 3 year period with a positive RSV nasopharyngeal aspirate test. Results A total of 557 children were included; 19% (n=106) required PICU admission. Children admitted to the PICU were younger in age, median (IQR) 6.93 (3.96, 11.89) weeks compared to children who remained on the wards 11.00 (5.86, 24.14) weeks. Being underweight at the point of admission (adjusted odds ratio 3.15, 95% 1.46, 6.70, p=0.003) was associated with a PICU admission. Conclusion Number of RSV bronchiolitis hospitalisations are increasing each year. Age, weight and the use of HFNC were independent predictors for PICU admission.

Validation of Three Rapid Screening Methods for Detection of Verotoxin-Producing Escherichia coli in Foods: Interlaboratory Study

An interlaboratory study was conducted for the validation of 3 methods for the detection of all verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) in foods. The methods were a multi-analyte 1-step lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) for detection of E. coli O157 and verotoxin (VT); an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay targeted against VT1, VT2, and VT2c (VT-ELISA); and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method for detection of VT genes (VT-PCR). Aliquots (25 g or 25 mL) of 4 food types (raw minced [ground] beef, unpasteurized milk, unpasteurized apple juice [cider], and salami) were individually inoculated with low numbers (<9 to 375 cells/25 g) of 6 test strains of E. coli (serogroups O26, O103, O111, O145, and O157) with differing VT-producing capabilities. Five replicates for each test strain and 5 uninoculated samples were prepared for each food type. Fourteen participating laboratories analyzed samples using the LFIA, 9 analyzed the samples by ELISA, and 9 by PCR. The LFIA for O157 and VT had a specificity (correct identification of negative samples) of 92 and 94%, respectively, and a sensitivity (correct identification of positive samples) of 94 and 55%, respectively. The VT-ELISA and VT-PCR

Intercontinental collaborative experience with abdominal, retroperitoneal and pelvic schwannomas

Background

Schwannomas are rare tumours that pose a significant management challenge in the abdomen, retroperitoneum and pelvis. No data are available to inform management strategy.

Methods

A collaborative international cohort study, across specialist sarcoma units, was conducted to include adults presenting between 2000 and 2017 with histopathologically confirmed schwannomas within the abdomen, retroperitoneum or pelvis.

Results

Of 485 patients across 12 centres, 38 (7·8 per cent) were discharged without follow-up, 199 (41·0 per cent) underwent early resection and 248 (51·1 per cent) had radiological monitoring. Of these 248 patients, 96 (38·7 per cent) eventually had surgery, giving an overall resection rate of 60·8 per cent (295 of 485). At baseline, median tumour volume was 90·1 (i.q.r. 26·5–262·0) cm3. The estimated growth rate was 10·5 (95 per cent c.i. 9·4 to 11·6) per cent per year, and was consistent in the short term (within 2 years of diagnosis) and long term (beyond 2 years) (ρ = 0·405, P = 0·021). A decision to operate was more common in symptomatic patients (P < 0·001) and for rapidly growing tumours (growth rate more than 20 per cent per year) (P = 0·025). R0/R1 resection was achieved in 91·6 per cent of patients (263 of 287). Kaplan–Meier long-term recurrence rates after R0/R1 resection were 2·3 and 6·7 per cent at 3 and 5 years respectively.

Conclusion

Specific recommendations include: indications for early surgery, prediction of growth from radiological monitoring, promotion of selective submacroscopic resection and cessation of postoperative imaging surveillance.

National audit on the management of bullous pemphigoid

BACKGROUND

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an autoimmune, subepidermal, blistering condition that typically affects elderly people.

AIM

To undertake a national clinical audit based on standards derived from the British Association of Dermatologists (BAD) clinical guidelines on the management of BP.

METHODS

In 2018, BAD members were invited to submit data for five consecutive adults with BP per centre, who had been under hospital supervision for at least 12 months, in a national audit over an 11-week period.

RESULTS

In total, 123 responders from 120 hospitals provided data for 524 cases. Diagnosis was made either clinically (10.7%; 56 of 524) or through histology with direct immunofluorescence (41.6%; 218 of 524), indirect immunofluorescence (10.3%; 54 of 524) or both (37.4%; 196 of 524). Most patients had very mild baseline disease (63.9%; 225 of 352) with 21.9% (77 of 352) considered mild, 9.8% (31 of 352) moderate and 5.4% (19 of 352) severe. Documentation of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure and hypertension was available for 54.1% (283 of 523), 51% (267 of 524), 44.2% (231 of 522) and 61.5% (321 of 522) of cases, respectively. Oral corticosteroids were commenced in 85.5% (448 of 524) of patients, with 38.4% (172 of 448) of these having documented risk of osteoporosis; data regarding prescription of bone-protection therapies were available for 99.7% (447 of 448) of cases, with 75.6% (338 of 447) of these having a bone-protection prescription. Patient satisfaction was documented in 59.3% (310 of 523) of cases. Systemic treatment was commenced in 95.9% (502 of 524) of cases during the 12-month assessment period, with baseline blood test and follow-up data available for 96.6% (485 of 502) and 95.6% (480 of 502), respectively. Documentation of baseline blood tests was available for 87.4% (424 of 485) of cases, with follow-up tests recorded in 69.8% (335 of 480).

CONCLUSION

Overall, compliance with elements of documentation was moderate or low, whereas standards pertaining to direct care were high.

BSACI guideline for the diagnosis and management of allergic and non-allergic rhinitis (Revised Edition 2017; First edition 2007)

This is an updated guideline for the diagnosis and management of allergic and non-allergic rhinitis, first published in 2007. It was produced by the Standards of Care Committee of the British Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, using accredited methods. Allergic rhinitis is common and affects 10-15% of children and 26% of adults in the UK, it affects quality of life, school and work attendance, and is a risk factor for development of asthma. Allergic rhinitis is diagnosed by history and examination, supported by specific allergy tests. Topical nasal corticosteroids are the treatment of choice for moderate to severe disease. Combination therapy with intranasal corticosteroid plus intranasal antihistamine is more effective than either alone and provides second line treatment for those with rhinitis poorly controlled on monotherapy. Immunotherapy is highly effective when the specific allergen is the responsible driver for the symptoms. Treatment of rhinitis is associated with benefits for asthma. Non-allergic rhinitis also is a risk factor for the development of asthma and may be eosinophilic and steroid-responsive or neurogenic and non- inflammatory. Non-allergic rhinitis may be a presenting complaint for systemic disorders such as granulomatous or eosinophilic polyangiitis, and sarcoidoisis. Infective rhinitis can be caused by viruses, and less commonly by bacteria, fungi and protozoa.

A multi-variable analysis of four factors affecting caries levels among five-year-old children; deprivation, ethnicity, exposure to fluoridated water and geographic region

OBJECTIVE

To assess the role of factors posited to affect population caries levels across England.

BASIC RESEARCH DESIGN

Multivariable regression analysis assessing four potential determinants of caries severity and prevalence: deprivation, exposure to fluoridated water, ethnicity and geographic region Participants: Random sample of 121,875 five-year-old children in England in the 2014/15 academic year.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Decayed, missing and filled teeth, with decay measured at the dentinal level, (d₃mft), presented as prevalence (dmft⟩0) and extent of decay among children who have any (d₃mft if d₃mft>0).

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Parental reported ethnicity from school records, index of multiple deprivation (IMD) scores, region and exposure to water fluoridation calculated utilising home postcodes.

RESULTS

The data support wider literature displaying associations between caries and deprivation across a social gradient. The important, new findings are deprivation, some ethnic groups and lack of exposure to water fluoridation are all associated with increased prevalence and severity of caries when considered together and independently. New evidence supports the impact of water fluoridation on health inequalities in that the greatest impact of exposure to fluoridated water was seen in the most deprived children and those from an Asian / Asian British ethnic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Five-year-old children who were from the most deprived areas, not exposed to fluoridated water, of an Eastern European ethnic group and living in the North West demonstrated the highest prevalence and severity of caries in the survey under scrutiny. This is of public health importance, providing evidence for population groups to target with health improvement activities.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, 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Manning P, Hendry G, Taylor B, Jones S, Couch R, Danchak R, Lieberman D, Strader W, Bencomo M, Bailey T, Bedolla L, Roldan C, Moudiotis C, Vaidya B, Anning C, Bunce S, Estcourt S, Folland E, Gordon E, Harrill C, Ireland J, Piper J, Scaife L, Sutton K, Wilkins S, Costelloe M, Palmer J, Casas L, Miller C, Burgard M, Erickson C, Hallanger-Johnson J, Clark P, Taylor W, Galgani J, Banerjee S, Banda C, McEowen D, Kinman R, Lafferty A, Gillett S, Nolan C, Pathak M, Sondrol L, Hjelle T, Hafner S, Kotrba J, Hendrickson R, Cemeroglu A, Symington T, Daniel M, Appiagyei-Dankah Y, Postellon D, Racine M, Kleis L, Barnes K, Godwin S, McCullough H, Shaheen K, Buck G, Noel L, Warren M, Weber S, Parker S, Gillespie I, Nelson B, Frost C, Amrhein J, Moreland E, Hayes A, Peggram J, Aisenberg J, Riordan M, Zasa J, Cummings E, Scott K, Pinto T, Mokashi A, McAssey K, Helden E, Hammond P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.