Panic disorder and incident coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-regression in 1131612 persons and 58111 cardiac events

BACKGROUND

Substantial healthcare resources are devoted to panic disorder (PD) and coronary heart disease (CHD); however, the association between these conditions remains controversial. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review of studies assessing the association between PD, related syndromes, and incident CHD.

METHOD

Relevant studies were retrieved from Medline, EMBASE, SCOPUS and PsycINFO without restrictions from inception to January 2015 supplemented with hand-searching. We included studies that reported hazard ratios (HR) or sufficient data to calculate the risk ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) which were pooled using a random-effects model. Studies utilizing self-reported CHD were ineligible. Twelve studies were included comprising 1 131 612 persons and 58 111 incident CHD cases.

RESULTS

PD was associated with the primary incident CHD endpoint [adjusted HR (aHR) 1.47, 95% CI 1.24-1.74, p < 0.00001] even after excluding angina (aHR 1.49, 95% CI 1.22-1.81, p < 0.00001). High to moderate quality evidence suggested an association with incident major adverse cardiac events (MACE; aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.69, p = 0.0004) and myocardial infarction (aHR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-1.66, p = 0.002). The risk for CHD was significant after excluding depression (aHR 1.64, 95% CI 1.45-1.85) and after depression adjustment (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.03-1.87). Age, sex, length of follow-up, socioeconomic status and diabetes were sources of heterogeneity in the primary endpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Meta-analysis showed that PD was independently associated with incident CHD, myocardial infarction and MACE; however, reverse causality cannot be ruled out and there was evidence of heterogeneity.

Simplification of an erythropoiesis model for design of anemia management protocols in end stage renal disease

Many end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients suffer from anemia due to insufficient endogenous production of erythropoietin (EPO). The discovery of recombinant human EPO (rHuEPO) over 30 years ago has shifted the treatment of anemia for patients on dialysis from blood transfusions to rHuEPO therapy. Many anemia management protocols (AMPs) used by clinicians comprise a set of experience-based rules for weekly-to-monthly titration of rHuEPO doses based on hemoglobin (Hgb) measurements. In order to facilitate the design of an AMP based on formal control design methods, we present a physiologically-relevant erythropoiesis model, and show that its nonlinear dynamics can be approximated using a static nonlinearity, a step that greatly simplifies AMP design. We demonstrate applicability of our results using clinical data.

The calcium scare--what would Austin Bradford Hill have thought?

Detailed consideration of the suggested association between calcium supplementation and heart attacks has revealed weakness in the evidence which make the hypothesis highly implausible.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate the strength of the evidence that calcium supplementation increases the risk of myocardial infarction.

METHODS

This study used critical examination of a meta-analysis of the effects of calcium supplements on heart attacks in five prospective trials on 8,016 men and women, and consideration of related publications by the same author.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis was found to be subject to several limitations including non-adherence to the clinical protocol, multiple endpoint testing and failure to correctly adjust for endpoint ascertainment. The main risk factors for myocardial infarction were not available for 65% of the participants, and none of the trials had cardiovascular disease as its primary endpoint. There were more overweight participants, more subjects on thyroxine and more men on calcium than on placebo. In particular, over 65% of all the heart attacks were self-reported. When the evidence was considered in the light of Austin Bradford Hill's six main criteria for disease causation, it was found not to be biologically plausible or strong or to reflect a dose-response relationship or to be consistent or to reflect the relationship between the trends in calcium supplementation and heart attacks in the community or to have been confirmed by experiment. The addition of a more recent trial on 1,460 women over 5 years reduced the relative risk to 1.23 (P = 0.0695).

CONCLUSION

Present evidence that calcium supplementation increases heart attacks is too weak to justify a change in prescribing habits.

Accuracy and optimal timing of activity measurements in estimating the absorbed dose of radioiodine in the treatment of Graves' disease

Calculation of the therapeutic activity of radioiodine (131)I for individualized dosimetry in the treatment of Graves' disease requires an accurate estimate of the thyroid absorbed radiation dose based on a tracer activity administration of (131)I. Common approaches (Marinelli-Quimby formula, MIRD algorithm) use, respectively, the effective half-life of radioiodine in the thyroid and the time-integrated activity. Many physicians perform one, two, or at most three tracer dose activity measurements at various times and calculate the required therapeutic activity by ad hoc methods. In this paper, we study the accuracy of estimates of four 'target variables': time-integrated activity coefficient, time of maximum activity, maximum activity, and effective half-life in the gland. Clinical data from 41 patients who underwent (131)I therapy for Graves' disease at the University Hospital in Pisa, Italy, are used for analysis. The radioiodine kinetics are described using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The distributions of the target variables in the patient population are characterized. Using minimum root mean squared error as the criterion, optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules are determined for estimation of the target variables, and probabilistic bounds are given for the errors under the optimal times. An algorithm is developed for computing the optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules for the target variables. This algorithm is implemented in a freely available software tool. Taking into consideration (131)I effective half-life in the thyroid and measurement noise, the optimal 1-point time for time-integrated activity coefficient is a measurement 1 week following the tracer dose. Additional measurements give only a slight improvement in accuracy.