"I think that she would have wanted. . .": Qualitative interviews with bereaved caregivers reveal complexity in measuring goal-concordant care at the end of life

BACKGROUND

Experts consider goal-concordant care an important healthcare outcome for individuals with serious illness. Despite their relationship to the patient and knowledge about the patient's wishes and values, little is known about bereaved family caregivers' perceptions of how end-of-life care aligns with patient goals and preferences.

AIM

To understand caregivers' perceptions about patients' care experiences, the extent to which care was perceived as goal-concordant, and the factors that contextualized the end-of-life care experience.

DESIGN

Qualitative interview study employing a semi-structured interview guide based on the National Health and Aging Trends Survey end-of-life planning module. Template analysis was used to identify themes.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Nineteen recently bereaved family caregivers of people with serious illness in two academic medical centers in the Northeastern United States.

RESULTS

Most caregivers reported goal-concordant care, though many also recalled experiences of goal discordance. Three themes characterized care perceptions and related to perceived quality: communication, relationships and humanistic care, and care transitions. Within communication, caregivers described the importance of clear communication, inadequate prognostic communication, and information gaps that undermined caregiver confidence in decision making. Patient-clinician relationships enriched care and were considered higher-quality when felt to be humanistic. Finally, care transitions impacted goal discordance when marked by logistical barriers, a need to establish relationships with new providers, inadequate information transfer, and poor care coordination.

CONCLUSIONS

Bereaved caregivers commonly rated care as goal-concordant while also identifying areas of disappointing and low-quality care. Communication, relationships and humanistic care, and care transitions are modifiable quality improvement targets for patients with advanced cancer.

Top Ten Tips Palliative Care Clinicians Should Know About Solid Organ Transplantation

Solid organ transplantation (SOT) is a life-saving procedure for people with end-stage organ failure. However, patients experience significant symptom burden, complex decision making, morbidity, and mortality during both pre- and post-transplant periods. Palliative care (PC) is well suited and historically underdelivered for the transplant population. This article, written by a team of transplant specialists (surgeons, cardiologists, nephrologists, hepatologists, and pulmonologists), PC clinicians, and an ethics specialist, shares 10 high-yield tips for PC clinicians to consider when caring for SOT patients.

Association of an Advance Care Planning Video and Communication Intervention With Documentation of Advance Care Planning Among Older Adults: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial

IMPORTANCE

COVID-19 has disproportionately killed older adults and racial and ethnic minority individuals, raising questions about the relevance of advance care planning (ACP) in this population. Video decision aids and communication skills training offer scalable delivery models.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether ACP video decision aids and a clinician communication intervention improved the rate of ACP documentation during an evolving pandemic, with a focus on African American and Hispanic patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Advance Care Planning: Communicating With Outpatients for Vital Informed Decisions trial was a pre-post, open-cohort nonrandomized controlled trial that compared ACP documentation across the baseline pre-COVID-19 period (September 15, 2019, to March 14, 2020), the COVID-19 wave 1 period (March 15, 2020, to September 14, 2020), and an intervention period (December 15, 2020, to June 14, 2021) at a New York metropolitan area ambulatory network of 22 clinics. All patients 65 years or older who had at least 1 clinic or telehealth visit during any of the 3 study periods were included.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was ACP documentation.

RESULTS

A total of 14 107 patients (mean [SD] age, 81.0 [8.4] years; 8856 [62.8%] female; and 2248 [15.9%] African American or Hispanic) interacted with clinicians during the pre-COVID-19 period; 12 806 (mean [SD] age, 81.2 [8.5] years; 8047 [62.8%] female; and 1992 [15.6%] African American or Hispanic), during wave 1; and 15 106 (mean [SD] 80.9 [8.3] years; 9543 [63.2%] female; and 2535 [16.8%] African American or Hispanic), during the intervention period. Clinicians documented ACP in 3587 patients (23.8%) during the intervention period compared with 2525 (17.9%) during the pre-COVID-19 period (rate difference [RD], 5.8%; 95% CI, 0.9%-7.9%; P = .01) and 1598 (12.5%) during wave 1 (RD, 11.3%; 95% CI, 6.3%-12.1%; P < .001). Advance care planning was documented in 447 African American patients (30.0%) during the intervention period compared with 233 (18.1%) during the pre-COVID-19 period (RD, 11.9%; 95% CI, 4.1%-15.9%; P < .001) and 130 (11.0%) during wave 1 (RD, 19.1%; 95% CI, 11.7%-21.2%; P < .001). Advance care planning was documented for 222 Hispanic patients (21.2%) during the intervention period compared with 127 (13.2%) during the pre-COVID-19 period (RD, 8.0%; 95% CI, 2.1%-10.9%; P = .004) and 82 (10.2%) during wave 1 (RD, 11.1%; 95% CI, 5.5%-14.5%; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This intervention, implemented during the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, was associated with higher rates of ACP documentation, especially for African American and Hispanic patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04660422.

Natural Language Processing to Identify Advance Care Planning Documentation in a Multisite Pragmatic Clinical Trial

CONTEXT

Large multisite clinical trials studying decision-making when facing serious illness require an efficient method for abstraction of advance care planning (ACP) documentation from clinical text documents. However, the current gold standard method of manual chart review is time-consuming and unreliable.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the ability to use natural language processing (NLP) to identify ACP documention in clinical notes from patients participating in a multisite trial.

METHODS

Patients with advanced cancer followed in three disease-focused oncology clinics at Duke Health, Mayo Clinic, and Northwell Health were identified using administrative data. All outpatient and inpatient notes from patients meeting inclusion criteria were extracted from electronic health records (EHRs) between March 2018 and March 2019. NLP text identification software with semi-automated chart review was applied to identify documentation of four ACP domains: (1) conversations about goals of care, (2) limitation of life-sustaining treatment, (3) involvement of palliative care, and (4) discussion of hospice. The performance of NLP was compared to gold standard manual chart review.

RESULTS

435 unique patients with 79,797 notes were included in the study. In our validation data set, NLP achieved F1 scores ranging from 0.84 to 0.97 across domains compared to gold standard manual chart review. NLP identified ACP documentation in a fraction of the time required by manual chart review of EHRs (1-5 minutes per patient for NLP, vs. 30-120 minutes for manual abstraction).

CONCLUSION

NLP is more efficient and as accurate as manual chart review for identifying ACP documentation in studies with large patient cohorts.

Enhancing the use of EHR systems for pragmatic embedded research: lessons from the NIH Health Care Systems Research Collaboratory

OBJECTIVE

We identified challenges and solutions to using electronic health record (EHR) systems for the design and conduct of pragmatic research.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Since 2012, the Health Care Systems Research Collaboratory has served as the resource coordinating center for 21 pragmatic clinical trial demonstration projects. The EHR Core working group invited these demonstration projects to complete a written semistructured survey and used an inductive approach to review responses and identify EHR-related challenges and suggested EHR enhancements.

RESULTS

We received survey responses from 20 projects and identified 21 challenges that fell into 6 broad themes: (1) inadequate collection of patient-reported outcome data, (2) lack of structured data collection, (3) data standardization, (4) resources to support customization of EHRs, (5) difficulties aggregating data across sites, and (6) accessing EHR data.

DISCUSSION

Based on these findings, we formulated 6 prerequisites for PCTs that would enable the conduct of pragmatic research: (1) integrate the collection of patient-centered data into EHR systems, (2) facilitate structured research data collection by leveraging standard EHR functions, usable interfaces, and standard workflows, (3) support the creation of high-quality research data by using standards, (4) ensure adequate IT staff to support embedded research, (5) create aggregate, multidata type resources for multisite trials, and (6) create re-usable and automated queries.

CONCLUSION

We are hopeful our collection of specific EHR challenges and research needs will drive health system leaders, policymakers, and EHR designers to support these suggestions to improve our national capacity for generating real-world evidence.

Patient, Family, and Clinician Perspectives on End-of-Life Care Quality Domains and Candidate Indicators for Adolescents and Young Adults With Cancer

Importance

End-of-life care quality indicators specific to adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 12 to 39 years with cancer have not been developed.

Objective

To identify priority domains for end-of-life care from the perspectives of AYAs, family caregivers, and clinicians, and to propose candidate quality indicators reflecting priorities.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This qualitative study was conducted from December 6, 2018, to January 5, 2021, with no additional follow-up. In-depth interviews were conducted with patients, family caregivers, and clinicians and included a content analysis of resulting transcripts. A multidisciplinary advisory group translated priorities into proposed quality indicators. Interviews were conducted at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, and an AYA cancer support community (lacunaloft.org). Participants included 23 AYAs, 28 caregivers, and 29 clinicians.

Exposure

Stage IV or recurrent cancer.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Care priorities.

Results

Interviews were conducted with 23 patients (mean [SD] age, 29.3 [7.3] years; 12 men [52%]; 18 White participants [78%]), 28 family caregivers (23 women [82%]; 14 White participants [50%]), and 29 clinicians (20 women [69%]; 13 White participants [45%]). Caregivers included 22 parents (79%), 5 spouses or partners (18%), and 1 other family member (4%); the 29 clinicians included 15 physicians (52%), 6 nurses or nurse practitioners (21%), and 8 social workers or psychologists (28%). Interviews identified 7 end-of-life priority domains: attention to physical symptoms, attention to quality of life, psychosocial and spiritual care, communication and decision-making, relationships with clinicians, care and treatment, and independence. Themes were consistent across the AYA age range and participant type. Although some domains were represented in quality indicators developed for adults, unique domains were identified, as well as AYA-specific manifestations of existing domains. For example, quality of life included global quality of life; attainment of life goals, legacy, and meaning; support of personal relationships; and normalcy. Within communication and decision-making, domains included communication early in the disease course, addressing prognosis and what to expect at the end of life, and opportunity for AYAs to hold desired roles in decision-making. Care and treatment domains relevant to cancer therapy, use of life-prolonging measures, and location of death emphasized the need for preference sensitivity rather than a standard path. This finding differs from existing adult indicators that propose that late-life chemotherapy, intensive measures, and hospital death should be rare.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this qualitative study suggest that AYAs with cancer have priorities for care at the end of life that are not fully encompassed in existing indicators for adults. Use of new indicators for this young population may better reflect patient- and family-centered experiences of quality care.

A Yet Unrealized Promise: Structured Advance Care Planning Elements in the Electronic Health Record

Background: Electronic health records (EHRs) may help enable reliable, rapid data management for many uses, such as facilitating communication of advance care planning (ACP). However, issues with validity and accuracy of EHRs hinder the use of ACP information for practical applications. Design: We present a cross-sectional pilot study of 433 older adults with cancer from three large health care systems, participating in an ongoing multisite pragmatic trial (4UH3AG060626-02). We compared data extracted from dedicated structured EHR fields for ACP to a chart review of corresponding ACP documentation contained in the medical chart. Results: Structured ACP data existed for 43.2% of patients and varied by site (25.7% -48.9%). Of the identified structured ACP data elements, 59.2% of recorded elements were correct, 23.7% were incorrect, and 17.1% were duplicates with heterogeneity across sites. Conclusion: Structured ACP data in EHRs were frequently incorrect. This represents a problem for patients and their families, as well as quality improvement and research efforts. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03609177.

Early serious illness communication in hospitalized patients: A study of the implementation of the Speaking About Goals and Expectations (SAGE) program

BACKGROUND

Early conversations about patients' goals and values in advancing serious illness (serious illness conversations) can drive better healthcare. However, these conversations frequently happen during acute illness, often near death, without time to realize benefits of early communication.

METHODS

The Speaking About Goals and Expectations (SAGE) Program, adapted from the Serious Illness Care Program, is a multicomponent intervention designed to foster earlier and more comprehensive serious illness conversations for patients admitted to the hospital. We present a quality improvement study of the SAGE Program assessing older adults admitted to a general medicine service at the Brigham & Women's Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts. Our primary outcomes included the proportion of patients with at least one documented conversation, the timing between first conversation documented and death, the quality of conversations, and their interprofessional nature. Secondary outcomes assessed evaluations of the training and hospital utilization.

RESULTS

We trained 37 clinicians and studied 133 patients split between the SAGE intervention and a comparison population. Intervention patients were more likely to have documented serious illness conversations (89.1% vs. 26.1%, p < 0.001); these conversations occurred earlier (mean of 598.9 vs. 180.8 days before death, p < 0.001) and included more key elements of conversation (mean of 6.56 vs. 1.78, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated significant differences in the frequency and quality of serious illness conversations completed earlier in the illness course for hospitalized patients.

IMPLICATIONS

Programs designed to drive serious illness conversations earlier in the hospital may be an effective way to improve care for patients not reached in the ambulatory setting.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prospectively designed trial, non-randomized sample.

Trends in Place of Death for Individuals With Deaths Attributed to Advanced Chronic or End-Stage Kidney Disease in the United States

CONTEXT

An important aspect of end-of-life care, place of death is understudied in advanced chronic (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine trends and factors associated with where advanced CKD/ESKD patients die.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using mortality data from 2003 to 2017 for deaths attributed primarily to advanced CKD/ESKD in the United States.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2017, 222,247 deaths were attributed to advanced CKD/ESKD. From 2003 to 2017, deaths occurring in hospitals declined from 56.0% (n = 5356) to 35.6% (n = 7764), whereas increases occurred in deaths at home (13.5% [n = 1292] to 24.3% [n = 5306]), nursing facilities (18.6% [n = 1776] to 19.3% [n = 4221]), and hospice facilities (0.3% [n = 29] to 13.4% [n = 2917]). Nonwhite race was associated with increased odds of hospital death (Black [OR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.55, 1.62]; Native American [OR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.32, 1.63]; Asian [OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.32, 1.55] and reduced odds of nursing facility (Black [OR = 0.622; 95% CI = 0.600, 0.645]; Native American [OR = 0.638; 95% CI = 0.572, 0.712]; Asian [OR = 0.574; 95% CI = 0.533, 0.619], or hospice facility death (Black [OR = 0.843; 95% CI = 0.773, 0.918]; Native American [OR = 0.380; 95% CI = 0.289, 0.500]; Asian [OR = 0.609; 95% CI = 0.502, 0.739]). Older age was associated with reduced odds of hospital death (≥85 [OR = 0.334; 95% CI = 0.312, 0.358]) and increased odds of home (≥85 [OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.43, 1.68]), nursing facility (≥85 [OR = 3.09; 95% CI = 2.76, 3.45]) or hospice facility death (≥85 [OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.49, 1.72]).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals remain the most common place of death from advanced CKD/ESKD; however, the proportion of home, nursing facility, and hospice facility deaths have increased.

Palliative Care in the Advancing American Kidney Health Initiative: A Call for Inclusion in Kidney Care Delivery Models

The Advancing American Kidney Health (AAKH) Initiative aims to promote high-value patient-centered care by improving access to and quality of treatment options for kidney failure. The 3 explicit goals of the initiative are to reduce the incidence of kidney failure, increase the number of available kidneys for transplantation, and increase transplantation and home dialysis. To ensure a patient-centered movement toward home dialysis modalities, actionable principles of palliative care, including systematic communication and customized treatment plans, should be incorporated into this policy. In this perspective, we describe 2 opportunities to strengthen the patience-centeredness of the AAKH Initiative through palliative care: (1) serious illness conversations should be required for all dialysis initiations in the End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices model, and (2) conservative kidney management should be counted as a home modality alongside peritoneal dialysis and home hemodialysis. A serious illness conversation can help clinicians discern whether a patient’s goals and values are best respected by a home dialysis modality or whether a nondialytic strategy such as conservative kidney management should be considered. An intensive and careful patient- and family-centered selection process will be necessary to ensure that no patient is pressured to forego conventional dialysis.

Measuring Goal-Concordant Care: Results and Reflections From Secondary Analysis of a Trial to Improve Serious Illness Communication

CONTEXT

Many consider goal-concordant care (GCC) to be the most important of advance care planning and palliative care. Researchers face significant challenges in attempting to measure this outcome. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to assess the effects of a system-level intervention to improve serious illness communication on GCC and other outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To describe our measurement approach to GCC, present findings from a post-hoc analysis of trial data, and discuss lessons learned about measuring GCC.

METHODS

Using trial data collected to measure GCC, we analyzed ratings and rankings from a nonvalidated survey of patient priorities in the setting of advanced cancer, the Life Priorities Scale, and compared outcomes with correlative measures.

RESULTS

Participants commonly rated several predetermined and literature-derived priorities as important but did so in ways that were commonly incongruent with rankings. Ratings were frequently stable over time; rankings less so. Rankings are more likely to help assess the degree to which care is goal concordant but may be best augmented by corollary measures that signal achievement of a given priority.

CONCLUSION

Measuring GCC remains a fundamental challenge to palliative care researchers. Ratings attest to the fact that many things matter to patients; however, rankings can better determine what matters most. Insights gained from our experience may guide future research aiming to use this outcome to assess the effect of intervention to improve serious illness care.

Meeting the guidelines: Implementing a distress screening intervention for veterans with cancer

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend systematic evaluation of distress screening and referral for cancer patients. Implementation remains a notable gap for cancer centers serving disadvantaged communities. We present the implementation of a distress screening program within a Veterans Affairs hospital oncology clinic, serving a majority African American (AA) male population of low socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

The Coleman Foundation funded this program supporting a palliative care physician and psychologist to implement screening in a phased approach as follows: (1) Organizing key stakeholders, (2) educating clinical staff, (3) delivering distress screening, (4) generating documentation, and (5) implementing clinical action and referral pathways. We utilized validated measures in the "Patient Screening Questions for Supportive Care" screening tool.

RESULTS

This program was unsuccessful in screening all veterans with cancer; however, we were able to implement 3 years of longitudinal screening. In distress screens from the initial program period (n = 253), patients were primarily males (95.6%) of older age (m = 70, standard deviation = 9.45), AA (76.4%), with various cancers of advanced disease (69%). Males reported moderate psychosocial distress and elevated financial needs. For males with elevated psychosocial distress (n = 63, PHQ-4 ≥3), 36% were previously connected with psychosocial services. Following screening, engagement increased as the majority (77%) established psychosocial care.

CONCLUSIONS

This screening program had mixed success. Centralized program staff and available supportive care referrals were critical for program implementation. Screening may have increased engagement in social work/mental health services for males of low SES. Screening programs should be tailored to the needs of underserved communities with accessible housing/food subsidies.

Implementing Serious Illness Communication Processes in Primary Care: A Qualitative Study

PURPOSE

Primary care clinicians face barriers to engaging patients in conversations about prognosis, values, and goals ("serious illness conversations"). We introduced a structured, multi-component intervention, the Serious Illness Care Program (SICP), to facilitate conversations in the primary care setting. We present findings of a qualitative study to explore practical aspects of program implementation.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews of participating primary care physicians, nurse care coordinators, and social workers and coded transcripts to assess the activities used to integrate SICP into the workflow.

RESULTS

We conducted interviews with 14 of 46 clinicians from 6 primary care clinics, stopping with thematic saturation. Qualitative analysis revealed major themes around activities in the timing of the conversation (before, during, and after) and overarching insights about the program. Clinicians used a variety of strategies to adapt program components while preserving key program goals, including processes to generate accountability to ensure that conversations happen in busy clinical workflows. The interviews revealed changes to clinicians' mindset and norms, such as the recognition of the need to start conversations earlier in the illness course and the use of more expansive models of prognostic communication that address function and quality of life. Data also revealed indicators of sustainable behavior change and the spread of communication practices to patients outside the intended program scope.

CONCLUSION

SICP served as a framework for primary care clinicians to integrate serious illness communication into routine care. The shifts in processes employed by inter-professional clinicians revealed comprehensive models for prognostic communication and creative workflows to ensure that patients with complex illnesses had proactive, longitudinal, and patient-centered serious illness conversations and care planning.

Advance Care Planning: Promoting Effective and Aligned Communication in the Elderly (ACP-PEACE): the study protocol for a pragmatic stepped-wedge trial of older patients with cancer

INTRODUCTION

Advance care planning (ACP) is associated with improved health outcomes for patients with cancer, and its absence is associated with unfavourable outcomes for patients and their caregivers. However, older adults do not complete ACP at expected rates due to patient and clinician barriers. We present the original design, methods and rationale for a trial aimed at improving ACP for older patients with advanced cancer and the modified protocol in response to changes brought by the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Advance Care Planning: Promoting Effective and Aligned Communication in the Elderly study is a pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial examining a Comprehensive ACP Program. The programme combines two complementary evidence-based interventions: clinician communication skills training (VitalTalk) and patient video decision aids (ACP Decisions). We will implement the programme at 36 oncology clinics across three unique US health systems. Our primary outcome is the proportion of eligible patients with ACP documentation completed in the electronic health record. Our secondary outcomes include resuscitation preferences, palliative care consultations, death, hospice use and final cancer-directed therapy. From a subset of our patient population, we will collect surveys and video-based declarations of goals and preferences. We estimate 11 000 patients from the three sites will be enrolled in the study.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Regulatory and ethical aspects of this trial include Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval via single IRB of record mechanism at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Data Use Agreements among partners and a Data Safety and Monitoring Board. We plan to present findings at national meetings and publish the results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03609177; Pre-results.

A systematic intervention to improve serious illness communication in primary care: Effect on expenses at the end of life

BACKGROUND

At a population level, conversations between clinicians and seriously ill patients exploring patients' goals and values can drive high-value healthcare, improving patient outcomes and reducing spending.

METHODS

We examined the impact of a quality improvement intervention to drive better communication on total medical expenses in a high-risk care management program. We present our analysis of secondary expense outcomes from a prospective implementation trial of the Serious Illness Care Program, which includes clinician training, coaching, tools, and system interventions. We included patients who died between January 2014 and September 2016 who were selected for serious illness conversations, using the "Surprise Question," as part of implementation of the program in fourteen primary care clinics.

RESULTS

We evaluated 124 patients and observed no differences in total medical expenses between intervention and comparison clinic patients. When comparing patients in intervention clinics who did and did not have conversations, we observed lower average monthly expenses over the last 6 ($6297 vs. $8,876, p = 0.0363) and 3 months ($7263 vs. $11,406, p = 0.0237) of life for patients who had conversations.

CONCLUSIONS

Possible savings observed in this study are similar in magnitude to previous studies in advance care planning and specialty palliative care but occur earlier in the disease course and in the context of documented conversations and a comprehensive, interprofessional case management program.

IMPLICATIONS

Programs designed to drive more, earlier, and better serious illness communication hold the potential to reduce costs.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prospectively designed trial, non-randomized sample, analysis of secondary outcomes.

Effect of the Serious Illness Care Program on Health Care Utilization at the End of Life for Patients with Cancer

Objectives: To determine the effect of the Serious Illness Care Program on health care utilization at the end of life in oncology. Design: Analysis of the secondary outcome of health care utilization as part of a cluster-randomized clinical trial that ran from 2012 to 2016. Clinicians in the intervention group received training, coaching, and system supports to have discussions with patients using a Serious Illness Conversation Guide (SICG); clinicians in the control arm followed usual care. Setting/Subject: Patients with advanced cancer who died within two years of enrollment at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. Measurement: Health care utilization was abstracted from the electronic medical record using the National Quality Forum (NQF)-endorsed indicators of aggressive cancer care at the end of life and scored from 0 to 6 (one point for each aggressive indicator); t tests and chi-square tests were used to determine differences between intervention and control patients. Results: The charts of 159 patients who died were reviewed. Neither the main outcome of mean number of aggressive indicators (0.9 vs. 0.9, p = 0.84) nor the proportion of patients with any aggressive care (49% intervention [95% CI: 40-57] vs. 54% control [95% CI: 42-67]) differed between patients in the intervention and control groups. Conclusion: In this analysis of a secondary outcome from a randomized clinical trial of the Serious Illness Care Program, intervention and control patients had similar end-of-life health care utilization as measured by the mean number of NQF-endorsed indicators. Future research efforts should focus on studying the strategies by which communication about patients' prognosis, values, and goals leads to personalized care plans.

Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Algorithm for Mortality Prediction in Selecting Patients With Dementia for Earlier Palliative Care Interventions

Importance

Early palliative care interventions drive high-value care but currently are underused. Health care professionals face challenges in identifying patients who may benefit from palliative care.

Objective

To develop a deep learning algorithm using longitudinal electronic health records to predict mortality risk as a proxy indicator for identifying patients with dementia who may benefit from palliative care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this retrospective cohort study, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year mortality prediction models with recurrent neural networks used patient demographic information and topics generated from clinical notes within Partners HealthCare System, an integrated health care delivery system in Boston, Massachusetts. This study included 26 921 adult patients with dementia who visited the health care system from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2017. The models were trained using a data set of 24 229 patients and validated using another data set of 2692 patients. Data were analyzed from September 18, 2018, to May 15, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 6-month and 1- and 2-year mortality prediction models and the factors contributing to the predictions.

Results

The study cohort included 26 921 patients (16 263 women [60.4%]; mean [SD] age, 74.6 [13.5] years). For the 24 229 patients in the training data set, mean (SD) age was 74.8 (13.2) years and 14 632 (60.4%) were women. For the 2692 patients in the validation data set, mean (SD) age was 75.0 (12.6) years and 1631 (60.6%) were women. The 6-month model reached an AUC of 0.978 (95% CI, 0.977-0.978); the 1-year model, 0.956 (95% CI, 0.955-0.956); and the 2-year model, 0.943 (95% CI, 0.942-0.944). The top-ranked latent topics associated with 6-month and 1- and 2-year mortality in patients with dementia include palliative and end-of-life care, cognitive function, delirium, testing of cholesterol levels, cancer, pain, use of health care services, arthritis, nutritional status, skin care, family meeting, shock, respiratory failure, and swallowing function.

Conclusions and Relevance

A deep learning algorithm based on patient demographic information and longitudinal clinical notes appeared to show promising results in predicting mortality among patients with dementia in different time frames. Further research is necessary to determine the feasibility of applying this algorithm in clinical settings for identifying unmet palliative care needs earlier.

Earlier identification of seriously ill patients: an implementation case series

OBJECTIVE

To describe the strategies used by a collection of healthcare systems to apply different methods of identifying seriously ill patients for a targeted palliative care intervention to improve communication around goals and values.

METHODS

We present an implementation case series describing the experiences, challenges and best practices in applying patient selection strategies across multiple healthcare systems implementing the Serious Illness Care Program (SICP).

RESULTS

Five sites across the USA and England described their individual experiences implementing patient selection as part of the SICP. They employed a combination of clinician screens (such as the 'Surprise Question'), disease-specific criteria, existing registries or algorithms as a starting point. Notably, each describes adaptation and evolution of their patient selection methodology over time, with several sites moving towards using more advanced machine learning-based analytical approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Involving clinical and programme staff to choose a simple initial method for patient identification is the ideal starting place for selecting patients for palliative care interventions. However, improving and refining methods over time is important and we need ongoing research into better patient selection methodologies that move beyond mortality prediction and instead focus on identifying seriously ill patients-those with poor quality of life, worsening functional status and medical care that is negatively impacting their families.