The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme and substrate replacement therapies: a longitudinal cohort study of people with lysosomal storage disorders

OBJECTIVES

To determine natural history and estimate effectiveness and cost of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) and substrate replacement therapy (SRT) for patients with Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I), mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II), Pompe disease and Niemann-Pick type C (NPC) disease.

DESIGN

Cohort study including prospective and retrospective clinical- and patient-reported data. Age- and gender-adjusted treatment effects were estimated using generalised linear mixed models. Treated patients contributed data before and during treatment. Untreated patients contributed natural history data.

SETTING

National Specialised Commissioning Group-designated lysosomal storage disorder (LSD) treatment centres in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Consenting adults and children with a diagnosis of Gaucher disease (n = 272), Fabry disease (n = 499), MPS I (n = 126), MPS II (n = 58), NPC (n = 58) or Pompe disease (n = 93) who had attended a treatment centre in England.

INTERVENTIONS

ERT and SRT.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical outcomes chosen by clinicians to reflect disease progression for each disorder; patient-reported quality-of-life (QoL) data; cost of treatment and patient-reported service-use data; numbers of hospitalisations, outpatient and general practitioner appointments; medication use; data pertaining to associated family/carer costs and QoL impacts.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and eleven adults and children were recruited. In those with Gaucher disease (n = 175) ERT was associated with improved platelet count, haemoglobin, liver function and reduced risk of enlarged liver or spleen. No association was found between ERT and QoL. In patients with Fabry disease (n = 311) increased time on ERT was associated with small decreases in left ventricular mass and improved glomerular filtration rate, but not with changes in risk of stroke/transient ischaemic attacks or the need for a hearing aid. There was a statistically significant association between duration of ERT use and worsening QoL and fatigue scores. We found no statistical difference in estimates of treatment effectiveness between the two preparations, agalsidase beta (Fabrazyme(®), Genzyme) (n = 127) and agalsidase alpha (Replagal(®), Shire HGT) (n = 91), licensed for this condition. In Pompe disease (n = 77) our data provide some evidence of a beneficial effect on muscle strength and mobility as measured by a 6-minute walk test in adult-onset patients; there were insufficient data from infantile-onset Pompe patients to estimate associations between ERT and outcome. Among subjects with MPS I (n = 68), 42 of the 43 patients with MPS I subtype Hurler's disease had undergone a bone marrow transplant. No significant associations were found between ERT and any outcome measure for the MPS I subtype Scheie disease and heparan sulphate patients. An association between duration of ERT and growth in children was the only statistically significant finding among patients with MPS II (n = 39). There were insufficient data for patients with NPC disease to draw any conclusions regarding the effectiveness of SRT. The current annual cost to the NHS of the different ERTs means that between 3.6 and 17.9 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for adult patients and between 2.6 and 10.5 discounted QALYs for child patients would need to be generated for each year of being on treatment for ERTs to be considered cost-effective by conventional criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide further evidence on the effectiveness of ERT in people with LSDs. However, the results need to be interpreted in light of the fact that the data are observational and the relative lack of power due to the small numbers of patients with MPS I, MPS II, Pompe disease and NPC disease. Future work should aim to effectively address the unanswered questions and this will require agreement on a common set of outcome measures and their consistent collection across all treatment centres.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 16, No. 39. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Dasatinib and nilotinib for imatinib-resistant or -intolerant chronic myeloid leukaemia: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a form of cancer affecting the blood, characterised by excessive proliferation of white blood cells in the bone marrow and circulating blood. In the UK, an estimated 560 new cases of CML are diagnosed each year.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in the treatment of people with imatinib-resistant (ImR) and imatinib-intolerant (ImI) CML. A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness literature, a review of manufacturer submissions and a critique and exploration of manufacturer submissions for accelerated phase and blast crisis CML were carried out and a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in chronic phase CML. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW METHODS: Key databases were searched for relevant studies from their inception to June 2009 [MEDLINE (including MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations), EMBASE, (ISI Web of Science) Conference Proceedings Citation Index and four others]. One reviewer assessed titles and abstracts of studies identified by the search strategy, with a sample checked by a second reviewer. The full text of relevant papers was obtained and screened against the full inclusion criteria independently by two reviewers. Data from included studies were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Clinical effectiveness studies were synthesised through narrative review. ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analyses reported in manufacturer submissions to the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence were critically appraised and summarised narratively. In addition, the models for accelerated phase and blast crisis underwent a more detailed critique and exploration. Two separate decision-analytic models were developed for chronic phase CML, one simulating a cohort of individuals who have shown or developed resistance to normal dose imatinib and one representing individuals who have been unable to continue imatinib treatment owing to adverse events. One-way, multiway and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore structural and parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were included in the systematic review. Chronic phase: effectiveness data were limited but dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic response and haematological response in both ImR and ImI populations. In terms of cost-effectiveness, it was extremely difficult to reach any conclusions regarding either agent in the ImR population. All three models (Novartis, PenTAG and Bristol-Myers Squibb) were seriously flawed in one way or another, as a consequence of the paucity of data appropriate to construct robust decision-analytic models. Accelerated and blast crisis: all available data originated from observational single-arm studies and there were considerable and potentially important differences in baseline characteristics which seriously undermined any process for making meaningful comparisons between treatments. Owing to a lack of available clinical data, de novo models of accelerated phase and blast crisis have not been developed. The economic evaluations carried out by the manufacturers of nilotinib and dasatinib were seriously undermined by the absence of evidence on high-dose imatinib in these populations.

LIMITATIONS

The study has been necessarily constrained by the paucity of available clinical data, the differences in definitions used in the studies and the subsequent impossibility of undertaking a meaningful cost-effectiveness analyses to inform all policy questions.

CONCLUSIONS

Dasatinib and nilotinib appeared efficacious in terms of obtaining cytogenetic and haematological responses in both ImR and ImI populations. It was difficult to reach any cost-effectiveness conclusions as a consequence of the paucity of the data. Future research should include a three-way, double-blind, randomised clinical trial of dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib.

Ephedrine accelerates psychomotor recovery from anesthesia in macaque monkeys

BACKGROUND

Ephedrine is used in treatment of hypotension during anesthesia. We investigated its effects on the psychomotor recovery and its potential adverse reactions on cardiorespiratory functions in rhesus monkeys.

METHODS

The monkeys received 50 μg/kg medetomidine, 2.0 mg/kg S-ketamine with 150 IU hyaluronidase i.m. Pulse rate, blood pressure and saturation of haemoglobin were monitored for 20 minutes. Thereafter, 1 mg/kg of ephedrine or a placebo was administered i.m. and behavioural changes, pulse rate, blood pressure and saturation of haemoglobin were monitored every 5 minutes.

RESULTS

Ephedrine shortened recovery from anaesthesia from 80.4 ± 25.8 to 14.83 ± 13.70 minutes. Ephedrine also increased oxygen saturation of haemoglobin and systolic blood pressure and caused significant decrease in pulse rate 5 minutes after its administration.

CONCLUSIONS

Ephedrine can be successfully used to accelerate psychomotor recovery after the use of common anesthetic protocols combining dissociative anesthetic agent and alpha 2-adrenoceptor agonist in primates.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: an evidence review of the submission from Roche

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer's searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission's evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 13,189 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and 6422 pounds per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from 10,249 pounds to 22,661 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and 5612 pounds and 6921 pounds per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate. Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Computerised decision support systems in order communication for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering: systematic reviews of the effects and cost-effectiveness of systems

BACKGROUND

Order communication systems (OCS) are computer applications used to enter diagnostic and therapeutic patient care orders and to view test results. Many potential benefits of OCS have been identified including improvements in clinician ordering patterns, optimisation of clinical time, and aiding communication processes between clinicians and different departments. Many OCS now include computerised decision support systems (CDSS), which are information systems designed to improve clinical decision-making. CDSS match individual patient characteristics to a computerised knowledge base, and software algorithms generate patient-specific recommendations.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate which CDSS in OCS are in use within the UK and the impact of CDSS in OCS for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering compared to OCS without CDSS. To determine what features of CDSS are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS and what is known about the cost-effectiveness of CDSS in diagnostic, screening or monitoring test OCS compared to OCS without CDSS.

DATA SOURCES

A generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CCTR), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers) Xplore digital library, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and EconLit, searched between 1974 and 2009 with a total of 22,109 titles and abstracts screened for inclusion.

REVIEW METHODS

CDSS for diagnostic, screening and monitoring test ordering OCS in use in the UK were identified through contact with the 24 manufacturers/suppliers currently contracted by the National Project for Information Technology (NpfIT) to provide either national or specialist decision support. A generic search to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion in the review was conducted on a range of medical, social science and economic databases. The review was undertaken using standard systematic review methods, with studies being screened for inclusion, data extracted and quality assessed by two reviewers. Results were broadly grouped according to the type of CDSS intervention and study design where possible. These were then combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated.

RESULTS

Results of the studies included in review were highly mixed and equivocal, often both within and between studies, but broadly showed a beneficial impact of the use of CDSS in conjunction with OCS over and above OCS alone. Overall, if the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account, then CDSS significantly improved practitioner performance in 15 out of 24 studies (62.5%). Only two studies covered the cost-effectiveness of CDSS: a Dutch study reported a mean cost decrease of 3% for blood tests orders (639 euros) in each of the intervention clinics compared with a 2% (208 euros) increase in control clinics in test costs; and a Spanish study reported a significant increase in the cost of laboratory tests from 41.8 euros per patient per annum to 47.2 euros after implementation of the system.

LIMITATIONS

The response rate from the survey of manufacturers and suppliers was extremely low at only 17% and much of the feedback was classified as being commercial-in-confidence (CIC). No studies were identified which assessed the features of CDSS that are associated with clinician or patient acceptance of CDSS in OCS in the test ordering process and only limited data was available on the cost-effectiveness of CDSS plus OCS compared with OCS alone and the findings highly specific. Although CDSS appears to have a potentially small positive impact on diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering, the majority of studies come from a limited number of institutions in the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

If the findings of both primary and secondary outcomes are taken into account then CDSS showed a statistically significant benefit on either process or practitioner performance outcomes in nearly two-thirds of the studies. Furthermore, in four studies that assessed adverse effects of either test cancellation or delay, no significant detrimental effects in terms of additional utilisation of health-care resources or adverse events were observed. We believe the key current need is for a well designed and comprehensive survey, and on the basis of the results of this potentially for evaluation studies in the form of cluster randomised controlled trials or randomised controlled trials which incorporate process, and patient outcomes, as well as full economic evaluations alongside the trials to assess the impact of CDSS in conjunction with OCS versus OCS alone for diagnostic, screening or monitoring test ordering in the NHS. The economic evaluation should incorporate the full costs of potentially developing, testing, and installing the system, including staff training costs.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Study registration 61.

Factors associated with a delay in diagnosis of recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy

208

Background: Salvage radiation therapy has an improved chance of increasing prostate cancer survival if it is administered at the earliest sign of recurrence, when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is low. We identified factors associated with delay in diagnosis of recurrent prostate cancer after prostatectomy.

Methods: We analyzed 375 men with PSA recurrence after prostatectomy enrolled in the Comprehensive, Observational, Multicenter, Prostate Adenocarcinoma Registry. Delay in diagnosis was defined as the time, in months, between recorded PSA greater than or equal to 0.2 ng/ml and enrollment in the registry. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with diagnosis delay. Diagnosis delay was dichotomized at the median (10 months) for the analysis.

Results: At enrollment the median age was 70 years, median time since prostatectomy was 71 months, and median PSA was 0.7 ng/ml. On multivariable analysis, older men (p=0.043), men with greater length of time since surgery (p<0.001), and men who contemplated delaying their PSA test (p=0.004) were more likely to have a delay in diagnosis of PSA recurrence. Men with Gleason 8 or higher disease at initial cancer diagnosis were less likely to have a delay (p=0.028).

Conclusions: Older men, men with greater time interval since prostatectomy, and men who contemplate delaying their PSA test are more likely to have a delay in diagnosis of recurrent prostate cancer. Since early salvage radiation therapy may be curative, physicians should encourage PSA vigilance and early referral if a rising PSA is noted among men with these characteristics.

[Table: see text]

Does participating in physical activity in outdoor natural environments have a greater effect on physical and mental wellbeing than physical activity indoors? A systematic review

Our objective was to compare the effects on mental and physical wellbeing, health related quality of life and long-term adherence to physical activity, of participation in physical activity in natural environments compared with physical activity indoors. We conducted a systematic review using the following data sources: Medline, Embase, Psychinfo, GreenFILE, SportDISCUS, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Arts and Humanities Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index--Science and BIOSIS from inception to June 2010. Internet searches of relevant Web sites, hand searches of relevant journals, and the reference lists of included papers and other review papers identified in the search were also searched for relevant information. Controlled trials (randomized and nonrandomized) were included. To be eligible trials had to compare the effects of outdoor exercise initiatives with those conducted indoors and report on at least one physical or mental wellbeing outcome in adults or children. Screening of articles for inclusion, data extraction, and quality appraisal were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second with discrepancies resolved by discussion with a third if necessary. Due to the heterogeneity of identified studies a narrative synthesis was performed. Eleven trials (833 adults) were included. Most participants (6 trials; 523 adults) were young students. Study entry criteria and methods were sparsely reported. All interventions consisted of a single episode of walking or running indoors with the same activity at a similar level conducted outdoors on a separate occasion. A total of 13 different outcome measures were used to evaluate the effects of exercise on mental wellbeing, and 4 outcome measures were used to assess attitude to exercise. Most trials (n = 9) showed some improvement in mental wellbeing on one or other of the outcome measures. Compared with exercising indoors, exercising in natural environments was associated with greater feelings of revitalization and positive engagement, decreases in tension, confusion, anger, and depression, and increased energy. However, the results suggested that feelings of calmness may be decreased following outdoor exercise. Participants reported greater enjoyment and satisfaction with outdoor activity and declared a greater intent to repeat the activity at a later date. None of the identified studies measured the effects of physical activity on physical wellbeing or the effect of natural environments on exercise adherence. The hypothesis that there are added beneficial effects to be gained from performing physical activity outdoors in natural environments is very appealing and has generated considerable interest. This review has shown some promising effects on self-reported mental wellbeing immediately following exercise in nature which are not seen following the same exercise indoors. However, the interpretation and extrapolation of these findings is hampered by the poor methodological quality of the available evidence and the heterogeneity of outcome measures employed. The review demonstrates the paucity of high quality evidence on which to base recommendations and reveals an undoubted need for further research in this area. Large, well designed, longer term trials in populations who might benefit most from the potential advantages of outdoor exercise are needed to fully elucidate the effects on mental and physical wellbeing. The influence of these effects on the sustainability of physical activity initiatives also awaits investigation.

Comorbidity and treatment regret in men with recurrent prostate cancer

187

Background: To determine whether concurrent comorbidity is associated with treatment regret among men with PSA recurrence following primary therapy for prostate cancer.

Methods: Among 795 men in the Comprehensive, Observational, Multicenter, Prostate Adenocarcinoma Registry (COMPARE) study who experienced PSA failure and were assessed a median of 5.5 (interquartile range 2.8-9.1) years after prostatectomy (n=410), external beam radiation (n=237), brachytherapy (n=124), or primary androgen deprivation (n=24), multivariable logistic regression was used to determine whether comorbidity level, sociodemographic factors, and other treatment factors were associated with treatment regret, as defined by a validated two-question screen. Significant comorbidity was defined as myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, diabetes, stroke, circulation problems, inflammatory bowel disease, or amputation.

Results: Of 795 men, 14.8% reportedregret. Men with significant comorbidity were more likely to experience post-therapy bowel toxicity (p=0.029) and urinary problems (p=0.051). On multivariable analysis, significant comorbidity [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.57 (95% CI:1.04-2.37); p = 0.033] and younger age [AOR: 0.965 (0.937-0.994) per year increase in age; p = 0.019] were associated with increased regret even after adjusting for post-therapy bowel and urinary complications.

Conclusions: In a population of men with PSA recurrence, those with significant comorbidity were particularly prone to treatment regret, which highlights the growing importance of considering comorbidity when counseling patients about prostate cancer treatment options. To properly set expectations, such men should be informed about their potential for increased post-treatment toxicity, which may reduce their risk of regret if toxicity occurs, and serious consideration should be given to active surveillance.

[Table: see text]

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: an evidence review of the submission from Roche

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of rituximab for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) based upon a review of the manufacturer’s submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The manufacturer’s searches for clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness data were appropriate and included all relevant studies. The submission’s evidence came from a single, unpublished, well-conducted randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) alone for the first-line treatment of CLL. There was a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with R-FC compared with FC alone {median 39.8 months vs 32.2 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.72]}. However, the initial significant treatment benefit for R-FC compared with FC for overall survival was not maintained at a slightly longer follow-up time [median 25.4 months; adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.09)]. Response rates, numbers of patients with event-free survival and duration of response all favoured treatment with R-FC. Additional evidence from a mixed-treatment comparison model indicated R-FC to be significantly superior to chlorambucil alone for both PFS and overall and complete response rates. The incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events was higher in the R-FC arm (77%) than in the FC arm (62%). Dose modifications were also more frequent in this arm, but this did not lead to differences in treatment discontinuation. Roche used a three-state Markov model (PFS, progressed and death) to model the cost-effectiveness of R-FC compared with FC and chlorambucil alone. The model used a cycle length of 1 month and a lifetime time horizon. The approach taken to modelling was reasonable and the sources and justification of estimates were generally sound. The base-case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £13,189 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for R-FC versus FC, and £6422 per QALY for the comparison of R-FC versus chlorambucil, suggesting that R-FC is cost-effective at normal willingness-to-pay thresholds. One-way sensitivity analyses produced a range of ICERs from £10,249 to £22,661 per QALY for R-FC versus FC, and £5612 and £6921 per QALY for R-FC versus chlorambucil. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results matched the deterministic results very closely. However, the sensitivity analysis did not fully investigate the uncertainty associated with differential values across arms or with the structural assumptions of the model, and utility values were not drawn from an empirical study. The NICE guidance issued as a result of the STA states that: Rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (R-FC) is recommended as an option for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in people for whom fludarabine in combination with cyclophosphamide (FC) is considered appropriate.  Rituximab in combination with chemotherapy agents other than fludarabine and cyclophosphamide is not recommended for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

The allergy-protective properties of Acinetobacter lwoffii F78 are imparted by its lipopolysaccharide

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of epidemiological studies show that exposure to farming environment during early childhood strongly influences the development of allergic reactions later in life ('hygiene hypothesis'). Also, it had been shown that certain bacteria from this environment may have allergy-protective properties. In the present study, we further characterized one of these bacteria, namely Acinetobacter lwoffii F78, with regard to the bacteria-induced signaling and possible mechanisms of allergy protection.

METHODS

The impact of A. lwoffii F78 on human monocyte-derived dendritic cells especially with respect to their T(Helper) cell polarization capacity was investigated by ELISA and real-time PCR experiments as well as confocal microscopy. The responsible molecule for these effects was further characterized and identified using blocking experiments.

RESULTS

It was shown that A. lwoffii F78 induced a T(H)1-polarizing program in human dendritic cells which led to T(H)1 differentiation. In addition, a positive influence on the TBet/GATA3 level could be detected. Blocking experiments revealed that the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of A. lwoffii F78 was the responsible molecule promoting these effects.

CONCLUSION

We found evidence that the allergy-protecting effects of A. lwoffii F78 are because of the activation of a T(H)1-polarizing program in human dendritic cells, and that the LPS of A. lwoffii F78 is responsible for these beneficial effects.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cochlear implants for severe to profound deafness in children and adults: a systematic review and economic model

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether it is clinically effective and cost-effective to provide (i) a unilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people (using or not using hearing aids), and (ii) a bilateral cochlear implant for severely to profoundly deaf people with a single cochlear implant (unilateral or unilateral plus hearing aid).

DATA SOURCES

Main electronic databases [MEDLINE; EMBASE; Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; CENTRAL; NHS EED; DARE; HTA (NHS-CRD); EconLit; National Research Register; and ClinicalTrials.gov] searched in October 2006, updated July 2007.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken according to standard methods. A state-transition (Markov) model of the main care pathways deaf people might follow and the main complications and device failures was developed.

RESULTS

The clinical effectiveness review included 33 papers, of which only two were RCTs. They used 62 different outcome measures and overall were of moderate to poor quality. All studies in children comparing one cochlear implant with non-technological support or an acoustic hearing aid reported gains on all outcome measures, some demonstrating greater gain from earlier implantation. The strongest evidence for an advantage from bilateral over unilateral implantation was for understanding speech in noisy conditions (mean improvement 13.2%, p < 0.0001); those receiving their second implant earlier made greater gains. Comparison of bilateral with unilateral cochlear implants plus an acoustic hearing aid was compromised by small sample sizes and poor reporting, but benefits were seen with bilateral implants. Cochlear implants improved children's quality of life, and those who were implanted before attending school were more likely to do well academically and attend mainstream education than those implanted later. In adults, there was a greater benefit from cochlear implants than from non-technological support in terms of speech perception. Increased age at implantation may reduce effectiveness and there is a negative correlation between duration of deafness and effectiveness. Speech perception measures all showed benefits for cochlear implants over acoustic hearing aids [e.g. mean increase in score of 37 points in noisy conditions (p < 0.001) with BKB sentences]; however, prelingually deafened adults benefited less than those postlingually deafened (mean change scores 20% versus 62%). For unilateral versus bilateral implantation, benefits in speech perception were significant in noisy conditions on all measures [e.g. 76% for HINT sentences (p < 0.0001)]. Quality of life measured with generic and disease-specific instruments or by interview mostly showed significant gains or positive trends from using cochlear implants. The Markov model base-case analysis estimated that, for prelingually profoundly deaf children, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for unilateral implantation compared with no implantation was 13,413 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Assuming the utility gain for bilateral implantation is the same for adults and children, the ICERs for simultaneous and sequential bilateral implantation versus unilateral implantation were 40,410 pounds and 54,098 pounds per QALY respectively. For postlingually sensorineurally profoundly deaf adults, the corresponding ICERs were 14,163 pounds, 49,559 pounds and 60,301 pounds per QALY respectively. Probabilistic threshold analyses suggest that unilateral implants are highly likely to be cost-effective for adults and children at willingness to pay thresholds of 20,000 pounds or 30,000 pounds per QALY. There are likely to be overall additional benefits from bilateral implantation, enabling children and adults to hold conversations more easily in social situations.

CONCLUSIONS

Unilateral cochlear implantation is safe and effective for adults and children and likely to be cost-effective in profoundly deaf adults and profoundly and prelingually deaf children. However, decisions on the cost-effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implants should take into account the high degree of uncertainty within the model regarding the probable utility gain.

Sunitinib and bevacizumab for first-line treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma: a systematic review and indirect comparison of clinical effectiveness

Background:

Two new agents have recently been licensed for use in the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in Europe. This paper aims to systematically review the evidence from all available randomised clinical trials of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with interferon-α (IFN-α)) in the treatment of advanced metastatic RCC.

Methods:

Systematic literature searches were performed in six electronic databases. Bibliographies of included studies were searched for further relevant studies. Individual conference proceedings were searched using their online interfaces. Studies were selected according to the predefined criteria. All randomised clinical trials of sunitinib or bevacizumab in combination with IFN for treating advanced metastatic RCC in accordance with the European licensed indication were included. Study selection, data extraction, validation and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers with disagreements being settled by discussion. The effects of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with IFN-α) on progression-free survival were compared indirectly using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling in Win BUGS, with IFN as a common comparator.

Results:

Three studies were included. Median progression-free survival was significantly prolonged with both interventions (from approximately 5 months to between 8 and 11 months) compared with IFN. Overall survival was also prolonged, compared with IFN, although the published data are not fully mature. Indirect comparison suggests that sunitinib is superior to bevacizumab plus IFN in terms of progression-free survival (hazard ratios 0.796; 95% CI 0.63–1.0; P=0.0272).

Conclusion:

There is evidence to suggest that treatment with sunitinib and treatment with bevacizumab plus IFN has clinically relevant and statistically significant advantages over treatment with IFN alone in patients with metastatic RCC.

Surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of non-apnoeic snoring: a systematic review of clinical effects and associated treatment costs

OBJECTIVES

To review the evidence on the clinical effects and associated treatment costs of surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of non-apnoeic snoring.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1980 and 2007. All treatment costs were estimated based on data from NHS reference costs, device manufacturers and clinical opinion.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies were screened, data extracted and quality assessed according to standard methods. Results were broadly grouped according to the intervention and comparator when applicable, and further subgrouped according to the specific intervention type and study design. Results were combined using a narrative synthesis with relevant quantitative results tabulated. Differences between studies assessing the same intervention were explored narratively by examining differences in the intervention, study duration and study quality.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 27 studies (three randomised controlled trials, two controlled clinical trials and 22 pre-post studies) reported in 30 publications assessing uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UP3) versus laser-assisted uvulopalatoplasty (LAUP), UP3 alone, LAUP alone, palatal stiffening techniques (Pillar implants and injection snoreplasty), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of the soft palate or tongue base, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) devices and mandibular advancement splints (MAS). Studies were generally of a low methodological quality with small sample sizes. A total of 1191 patients was included. Both UP3 and LAUP reduced the number of snores per hour and produced a modest reduction in snoring loudness. UP3 was effective in reducing a number of subjectively reported snoring indices, but results on objective measures were equivocal. Limited evidence indicates that subjectively assessed snoring is improved after LAUP; no objective measures were assessed. RFA was associated with a reduction in partner-assessed snoring intensity, though evidence for an objective reduction in snoring sound levels was mixed. Pillar implants were moderately effective at reducing partner-rated snoring intensity, but had no effect on objective snoring indices. Use of CPAP reduced the number of snores per hour; no subjective measures were evaluated. Use of MAS improved objective snoring outcomes, including the maximal snoring sound volume, the mean snoring sound volume and the percentage of time spent in loud snoring; no subjective measures were evaluated. The cost for UP3 ranges from approximately 1230 pounds to approximately 1550 pounds. For LAUP the cost varies from 790 pounds to 2070 pounds depending on the number of stages of the procedure. The treatment costs associated with the use of Pillar implants range from 1110 pounds to 1160 pounds. The approximate annual treatment costs associated with the use of a CPAP machine and MAS are 220 pounds and 130 pounds respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlighted the paucity and poor quality of the evidence available on the effects of both surgical procedures and non-surgical devices for the management of primary snoring. Any conclusions to be drawn from the results are therefore somewhat tentative. There was no procedure that was clearly the least-cost option. Further research should focus on standardising methods of measuring outcomes and reporting, undertaking active controlled trials, and investigating the longer-term effects of treatments.

Systematic review and economic analysis of the comparative effectiveness of different inhaled corticosteroids and their usage with long-acting beta2 agonists for the treatment of chronic asthma in children under the age of 12 years

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in children aged under 12 years.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006).

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies and economic analyses were carried out. A flexible framework was used to allow different types of economic analyses as appropriate, with either a cost comparison or cost-consequence comparison conducted.

RESULTS

Of 5175 records identified through systematic literature searching, 34 records describing 25 studies were included (16 were fully published randomised controlled trials, six were systematic reviews, and three were post-2004 conference abstracts). The most frequently reported relevant outcomes in the 16 RCTs were peak expiratory flow rate (13 trials), FEV1 (13 trials), symptoms (13 trials), adverse events or exacerbations (13 trials), use of rescue medication (12 trials), markers of adrenal function (e.g. blood or urine cortisol concentrations) (13 trials), height and/or growth rate (seven trials) and markers of bone metabolism (two trials). In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, no consistent significant differences or patterns in differential treatment effect among the outcomes were evident. Where differences were statistically significant at high doses, such as for lung function and growth, they favoured formoterol fumarate (FF), but this was generally in studies that did not compare the ICS at the accepted clinically equivalent doses. Differences between the drugs in impact on adrenal suppression were only significant in two studies. At doses of 200, 400 and 800 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. In the trials comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination, most outcomes favoured the combined inhaler. Only the combination inhaler, Seretide Evohaler, is slightly cheaper than the weighted mean cost of all types of ICS at increased dose except BDP 400 microg/day (including CFC-propelled products). Both the combination inhalers, Seretide Accuhaler and Symbicort Turbohaler, are more expensive than the weighted mean cost for all types of ICS at a two-fold increased dose. Compared with the lowest cost preparation for each ICS drug, all the combination inhalers are always more expensive than the ICS products at increased dose.

CONCLUSIONS

The limited evidence available indicates that there are no consistent significant differences in effectiveness between the three ICS licensed for use in children at either low or high dose. BDP CFC-propelled products are often the cheapest ICS currently available at both low and high dose, and may remain so even when CFC-propelled products are excluded. Exclusion of CFC-propelled products increases the mean annual cost of all budesonide (BUD) and BDP, while the overall cost differences between the comparators diminish. There is very limited evidence available for the efficacy and safety of ICS and LABAs in children. From this limited evidence, there appear to be no significant clinical differences in effects between the use of a combination inhaler versus the same drugs in separate inhalers. There is a lack of evidence comparing ICS at a higher dose with ICS and LABA in combination and comparing the combination products with each other. In the absence of any evidence concerning the effectiveness of ICS at higher dose with ICS and LABA, a cost-consequence analysis gives mixed results. There are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared to separate inhalers. At present prices, the BUD/FF combination is more expensive than those containing FP/SAL, but it is not known whether there are clinically significant differences between them. A scoping review is required to assess the requirements for additional primary research on the clinical effectiveness of treatment for asthma in children under 5 years old. Such a review could also usefully include all treatment options, pharmacological and non-pharmacological, for asthma. A direct head-to-head trial that compares the two combination therapies of FP/SAL and BUD/FF is warranted, and it is important to assess whether the addition of a LABA to a lower dose of ICS could potentially be as effective as an increased dose of ICS alone, but also be steroid sparing. There is also a need for the long-term adverse events associated with ICS use to be assessed systematically. Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma in children should aim to standardise further the way in which outcome measures are defined. There should be a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes to provide a more meaningful estimation of the impact of treatment on asthma control. Methods of reporting also require standardisation.

Systematic review and economic analysis of the comparative effectiveness of different inhaled corticosteroids and their usage with long-acting beta2 agonists for the treatment of chronic asthma in adults and children aged 12 years and over

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) alone and ICS used in combination with a long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA) in the treatment of chronic asthma in adults and children aged over 12 years.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic bibliographic databases, e.g. MEDLINE and EMBASE, were searched up to February/March 2006 (and updated again in October 2006).

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of clinical and cost-effectiveness studies was conducted. Cost comparison and cost-consequence analyses were performed where appropriate.

RESULTS

The assessment of clinical effectiveness was based on the 67 randomised controlled trials selected from the 5175 reports identified through the systematic literature search. The most frequently reported relevant outcomes were lung function, symptoms, use of rescue medication and adverse events. The trials varied considerably. In the trials that compared low-dose ICS versus ICS and high-dose ICS versus ICS, there were few significant differences in clinical effectiveness, although a few of the trials had assessed non-inferiority between the comparators rather than superiority. At doses of 400, 800 and 'high-level' doses of 1500 or 1600 microg/day, beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) appears to be the current cheapest ICS product both with the inclusion and exclusion of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-propelled products. A significant treatment benefit for combination ICS/LABA therapy across a range of outcomes compared with ICS alone was identified [when the ICS was double the accepted clinically equivalent dose of the ICS in the combination inhaler, and dry powder inhalers (DPIS) were used to deliver the drugs]. When a formoterol fumarate (FF)/salmeterol (SAL) combination inhaler and a budesonide (BUD)/FF combination inhaler were each compared with their constituent drugs delivered in separate inhalers, there were very few statistically significant differences between the treatments across the various efficacy outcomes and the rate of adverse events. Combination inhalers were more often cheaper than doubling the dose of ICS alone. However, the costs were highly variable and dependent on both the dose required and the preparation used in the trials. The estimated mean annual cost of FP/SAL combination varied from being 94 pounds cheaper to 109 pounds more expensive than the alternative of BUD at a higher dose. The BUD/FF combination varied from being 163 pounds cheaper to 66 pounds more expensive than the higher dose of either BUD or FP. When the combination inhalers were compared to each other, the results were mixed, with the FP/SAL combination significantly superior on some outcomes and the BUD/FF combination superior on others; however, meta-analysis showed that there were no significant differences between the two treatments in the rate of adverse events. Taking an ICS with a LABA as either of the two currently available combination products, FP/SAL and BUD/FF, is usually cheaper than taking the relevant constituent drugs in separate inhalers. At very high doses of BUD (1600 microg/day), however, the BUD/FF combination inhaler can be up to 156 pounds more expensive than having the same drugs in separate inhalers. In terms of the relative costs associated with taking one of the combination inhalers, at low dose (400 microg BUD or 200 microg FP/day) the cheapest combination inhaler is FP/SAL as a pressurised metered dose inhaler (pMDI) (Seretide Evohaler). However, this is only slightly cheaper than using BUD/FF as a DPI (Symbicort Turbohaler). At higher dose levels (800 microg BUD or 500 microg FP/day) FP/SAL as either pMDI aerosol (Seretide Evohaler) or a DPI (Seretide Accuhaler) is the cheapest combination product available, but again only slightly cheaper than the DPI BUD/FF combination (Symbicort Turbohaler). It should be highlighted, however, that the three head-to-head trials that compared the effects of FP/SAL with BUD/FF used the FP/SAL DPI combination inhaler, Seretide Accuhaler.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence indicates that there are few consistent significant differences in effects between the five ICS licensed for use in adults and adolescents over the age of 12 years, at either low or high dose. On average, BDP products currently tend to be the cheapest ICS available and tend to remain so as the daily ICS dose required increases. There is evidence that the addition of a LABA to an ICS is potentially more clinically effective than doubling the dose of ICS alone, although consistent significant differences between the two treatment strategies are not observed for all outcome measures. The cost differences between combination therapy compared with ICS monotherapy are highly variable and dependent on the dose required and the particular preparations used. For the combination therapies of ICS/LABA there are potential cost savings with the use of combination inhalers compared with separate inhalers, with few differences between the two treatment strategies in terms of effects. The only exception to this cost saving is with BUD/FF at doses higher than 1200 microg/day, where separate inhaler devices can become equivalent to or cheaper than combination inhalers. Neither of the two combination inhalers (FP/SAL or BUD/FF) is consistently superior in terms of treatment effect. A comparison of the costs associated with each combination therapy indicates that at low dose FP/SAL delivered via a pMDI is currently the cheapest combination inhaler but only marginally cheaper than BUD/FF delivered as a DPI. At higher doses, both the FP/SAL combination inhalers (PMDI and DPI) are marginally cheaper than BUD/FF (DPI). Future trials of treatment for chronic asthma should standardise the way in which outcome measures are defined and measured, with a greater focus on patient-centred outcomes. For informing future cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses from a UK NHS perspective, there is a need for longitudinal studies that comprehensively track the care pathways followed when people experience asthma exacerbations of different severity. Further research synthesis, quantifying the adverse effects of the different ICS, is required for treatment choices by patients and clinicians to be fully informed.

Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-utility analysis

Using a decision-analytic model, we evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with cirrhosis. Separate cohorts with cirrhosis due to alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis B and hepatitis C were simulated. Results were also combined to approximate a mixed aetiology population. Comparisons were made between a variety of surveillance algorithms using α-foetoprotein (AFP) assay and/or ultrasound at 6- and 12-monthly intervals. Parameter estimates were obtained from comprehensive literature reviews. Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In the mixed aetiology cohort, 6-monthly AFP+ultrasound was predicted to be the most effective strategy. The model estimates that, compared with no surveillance, this strategy may triple the number of people with operable tumours at diagnosis and almost halve the number of people who die from HCC. The cheapest strategy employed triage with annual AFP (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): £20 700 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30 000 per QALY the most cost-effective strategy used triage with 6-monthly AFP (ICER: £27 600 per QALY gained). The addition of ultrasound to this strategy increased the ICER to £60 100 per QALY gained. Surveillance appears most cost-effective in individuals with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis, potentially due to younger age at diagnosis of cirrhosis. Our results suggest that, in a UK NHS context, surveillance of individuals with cirrhosis for HCC should be considered effective and cost-effective. The economic efficiency of different surveillance strategies is predicted to vary markedly according to cirrhosis aetiology.

Surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus: exploring the uncertainty through systematic review, expert workshop and economic modelling

OBJECTIVES

To assess what is known about the effectiveness, safety, affordability, cost-effectiveness and organisational impact of endoscopic surveillance in preventing morbidity and mortality from adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's oesophagus. In addition, to identify important areas of uncertainty in current knowledge for these programmes and to identify areas for further research.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases up to March 2004. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of the effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus was carried out following methodological guidelines. Experts in Barrett's oesophagus from the UK were invited to contribute to a workshop held in London in May 2004 on surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus. Small group discussion, using a modified nominal group technique, identified key areas of uncertainty and ranked them for importance. A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a surveillance programme for patients with Barrett's oesophagus compared with no surveillance and to quantify important areas of uncertainty. The model estimates incremental cost--utility and expected value of perfect information for an endoscopic surveillance programme compared with no surveillance. A cohort of 1000 55-year-old men with a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus was modelled for 20 years. The base case used costs in 2004 and took the perspective of the UK NHS. Estimates of expected value of information were included.

RESULTS

No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well-designed non-randomised controlled studies were identified, although two comparative studies and numerous case series were found. Reaching clear conclusions from these studies was impossible owing to lack of RCT evidence. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of data particularly about cause of death, and changes in surveillance practice over time were mentioned but not explained in several studies. Three cost--utility analyses of surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus were identified, of which one was a further development of a previous study by the same group. Both sets of authors used Markov modelling and confined their analysis to 50- or 55-year-old white men with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) symptoms. The models were run either for 30 years or to age 75 years. As these models are American, there are almost certainly differences in practice from the UK and possible underlying differences in the epidemiology and natural history of the disease. The costs of the procedures involved are also likely to be very different. The expert workshop identified the following key areas of uncertainty that needed to be addressed: the contribution of risk factors for the progression of Barrett's oesophagus to the development of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus; possible techniques for use in the general population to identify patients with high risk of adenocarcinoma; effectiveness of treatments for Barrett's oesophagus in altering cancer incidence; how best to identify those at risk in order to target treatment; whether surveillance programmes should take place at all; and whether there are clinical subgroups at higher risk of adenocarcinoma. Our Markov model suggests that the base case scenario of endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus at 3-yearly intervals, with low-grade dysplasia surveyed yearly and HGD 3-monthly, does more harm than good when compared with no surveillance. Surveillance produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for higher cost than no surveillance, therefore it is dominated by no surveillance. The cost per cancer identified approaches pound 45,000 in the surveillance arm and there is no apparent survival advantage owing to high recurrence rates and increased mortality due to more oesophagectomies in this arm. Non-surveillance continues to cost less and result in better quality of life whatever the surveillance intervals for Barrett's oesophagus and dysplastic states and whatever the costs (including none) attached to endoscopy and biopsy as the surveillance test. The probabilistic analyses assess the overall uncertainty in the model. According to this, it is very unlikely that surveillance will be cost-effective even at relatively high levels of willingness to pay. The simulation showed that, in the majority of model runs, non-surveillance continued to cost less and result in better quality of life than surveillance. At the population level (i.e. people with Barrett's oesophagus in England and Wales), a value of pound 6.5 million is placed on acquiring perfect information about surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus using expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analyses, if the surveillance is assumed to be relevant over 10 years. As with the one-way sensitivity analyses, the partial EVPI highlighted recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) after surgery and time taken for ACO to become symptomatic as particularly important parameters in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic review concludes that there is insufficient evidence available to assess the clinical effectiveness of surveillance programmes of Barrett's oesophagus. There are numerous gaps in the evidence, of which the lack of RCT data is the major one. The expert workshop reflected these gaps in the range of topics raised as important in answering the question of the effectiveness of surveillance. Previous models of cost-effectiveness have most recently shown that surveillance programmes either do more harm than good compared with no surveillance or are unlikely to be cost-effective at usual levels of willingness to pay. Our cost--utility model has shown that, across a range of values for the various parameters that have been chosen to reflect uncertainty in the inputs, it is likely that surveillance programmes do more harm than good -- costing more and conferring lower quality of life than no surveillance. Probabilistic analysis shows that, in most cases, surveillance does more harm and costs more than no surveillance. It is unlikely, but still possible, that surveillance may prove to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, however, shows that surveillance is unlikely to be cost-effective at either the 'usual' level of willingness to pay ( pound 20,000-30,000 per QALY) or at much higher levels. The expected value of perfect information at the population level is pound 6.5 million. Future research should target both the overall effectiveness of surveillance and the individual elements that contribute to a surveillance programme, particularly the performance of the test and the effectiveness of treatment for both Barrett's oesophagus and ACO. In addition, of particular importance is the clarification of the natural history of Barrett's oesophagus.

Topical pimecrolimus for eczema

BACKGROUND

Pimecrolimus was developed as an alternative to topical corticosteroids for treating eczema (atopic dermatitis) but its efficacy and safety compared with existing treatments remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of topical pimecrolimus for treating eczema.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register (to October 2006), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2006), MEDLINE (from 2003 to October 2006), and EMBASE (from 2005 to October 2006). We also contacted researchers and manufacturers in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials of 1.0% topical pimecrolimus used twice daily compared against other topical comparators for treating eczema.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently examined each retrieved study for eligibility and extracted data for efficacy, tolerability and safety. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

MAIN RESULTS

We included 31 trials (8019 participants) in the analysis. In short-term (</= 6 weeks) trials, pimecrolimus cream was significantly more effective and well-tolerated than vehicle (cream base, but not containing pimecrolimus). In long-term trials (>/=6 months), pimecrolimus was significantly better than vehicle in preventing flares (9 trials, 3091 participants, RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.64 at six months) and in improving quality of life. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than two topical corticosteroids, i.e. 0.1% triamcinolone acetonide for investigators' global assessment (1 trial, 658 participants, RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and 0.1% betamethasone valerate for participants' global assessment (1 trial, 87 participants, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.81) at three weeks. Pimecrolimus was also associated with significantly more overall withdrawals and skin burning. None of the trials reported on key adverse effects such as thinning of skin. Pimecrolimus was significantly less effective than 0.1% tacrolimus for investigators' global assessment at six weeks (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.74) and led to more withdrawals due to lack of efficacy (RR 2.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 5.08) based on two trials involving 639 participants, but there was no significant difference in proportions of participants experiencing any adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Topical pimecrolimus is less effective than moderate and potent corticosteroids and 0.1% tacrolimus. The therapeutic role of topical pimecrolimus is uncertain due to the absence of key comparisons with mild corticosteroids.

Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review and economic analysis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of surveillance of patients with cirrhosis [alcoholic liver disease (ALD)-, hepatitis B (HBV)- and C virus (HCV)-related], using periodic serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing and/or liver ultrasound examination, to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), followed by treatment with liver transplantation or resection, where appropriate.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines. A computerised decision-analytic model was then developed to compare various surveillance strategies.

RESULTS

No studies were identified that met the criteria of the systematic review. Based on the assumptions used in the model, the most effective surveillance strategy uses a combination of AFP testing and ultrasound at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with no surveillance, this strategy is estimated to more than triple the number of people with operable HCC tumours at time of diagnosis, and almost halves the number of deaths from HCC. On all effectiveness measures and at both testing frequencies, AFP- and ultrasound-led surveillance strategies are very similar. This may be because test sensitivity was varied according to tumour size, which means that AFP testing is capable of identifying many more small tumours than ultrasound. The best available evidence suggests that AFP tests will detect approximately six times as many small tumours as ultrasound. Increasing the frequency of either test to 6-monthly intervals is more effective than performing combined testing on an annual basis. The undiscounted lifetime cost of the surveillance strategies, including all care and treatment costs, ranges from 40,300 pounds (annual AFP triage) to 42,900 pounds (6-monthly AFP and ultrasound). The equivalent discounted costs are 28,400 pounds and 30,400 pounds. Only a small proportion of these total costs results from the cost of the screening tests. However, screening test costs, and the cost of liver transplants and caring for people post-transplant, accounted for most of the incremental cost differences between alternative surveillance strategies. The results suggest that different surveillance strategies may provide the best value for money in patient groups of different cirrhosis aetiologies. The surveillance of people with HBV-related cirrhosis for HCC provides the best value for money, while surveillance in people with ALD-related cirrhosis provides the poorest value for money. In people with HBV-related cirrhosis, at an assumed maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 30,000 pounds, both the deterministic and probabilistic cost-utility analyses suggest the optimal surveillance strategy would be 6-monthly surveillance with the combination of AFP testing and ultrasound. In contrast, for those with ALD-related cirrhosis, annual screening with AFP as a triage test is the only surveillance strategy that is likely to be considered cost-effective at this WTP. The probabilistic analysis implies that the estimated benefits of a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy will only be worth the cost in those with ALD when society's WTP for a QALY exceeds around 40,000 pounds. For people with HCV-related cirrhosis, the model suggests that the most cost-effective surveillance strategy at a WTP threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY would be surveillance with a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

In a mixed-aetiology cohort, the most effective surveillance strategy is to screen each patient with AFP assay and ultrasound imaging on a 6-monthly basis. However, when costs are taken into account it is doubtful whether ultrasound should be routinely offered to those with blood AFP of less than 20 ng/ml, unless policy-makers are prepared to pay over 60,000 pounds per QALY for the benefits achieved. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for HCC varies considerably depending on the aetiology of cirrhosis; it is much more likely to be cost-effective in those with HBV-related cirrhosis, and much less likely to be cost-effective in those with ALD-related cirrhosis. Further development of the model would help to enable refinement of an optimal screening strategy. Research into the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound technology for HCC detection would also be valuable, as would research into the epidemiology and natural history of ALD-related cirrhosis. Studies are also needed to investigate the influence of cirrhosis aetiology on tumour AFP expression.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for secondary hyperparathyroidism in end-stage renal disease patients on dialysis: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) for people on dialysis due to end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to February 2006.

REVIEW METHODS

Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on the clinical effectiveness of cinacalcet for SHPT in ESRD were critically appraised, had relevant data extracted and were summarised narratively. A Markov (state transition) model was developed that compared cinacalcet in addition to current standard treatment with phosphate binders and vitamin D to standard treatment alone. A simulated cohort of 1000 people aged 55 with SHPT was modelled until the whole cohort was dead. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated. Extensive one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Seven trials comparing cinacalcet plus standard treatment with placebo plus standard treatment were included in the systematic review. A total of 846 people were randomised to receive cinacalcet. Cinacalcet was more effective at meeting parathyroid hormone (PTH) target levels (40% vs 5% in placebo, p < 0.001). In those patients meeting PTH targets, 90% also experienced a reduction in calcium-phosphate product levels, compared with 1% in placebo. Significantly fewer people treated with cinacalcet were hospitalised for cardiovascular events, although no difference was seen in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Significantly fewer fractures and parathyroidectomies were also seen with cinacalcet. Findings on all patient-based clinical outcomes were based on small numbers. The authors' economic model estimated that, compared to standard treatment alone, cinacalcet in addition to standard care costs an additional 21,167 pounds and confers 0.34 QALYs (or 18 quality-adjusted weeks) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 61,890 pounds/QALY. In most cases, even extreme adjustments to individual parameters did not result in an ICER below a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY with probabilistic analysis showing only 0.5% of simulations to be cost-effective at this threshold. Altering the assumptions in the model through using different data sources for the inputs produced a range of ICERs from 39,000 pounds to 92,000 pounds/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Cinacalcet in addition to standard care is more effective than placebo plus standard care at reducing PTH levels without compromising calcium levels. However, there is limited information about the impact of this reduction on patient-relevant clinical outcomes. Given the short follow-up in the trials, it is unclear how data should be extrapolated to the long term. Together with the high drug cost, this leads to cinacalcet being unlikely to be considered cost-effective. Recommendations for future research include obtaining accurate estimates of the multivariate relationship between biochemical disruption in SHPT and long-term clinical outcomes.

A cost-utility analysis of pimecrolimus vs. topical corticosteroids and emollients for the treatment of mild and moderate atopic eczema

BACKGROUND

Conventional treatments for atopic eczema include topical corticosteroids (TCS) and emollients. Pimecrolimus, an immunosuppressant, was licensed in the U.K. in 2003 as an alternative treatment of mild to moderate atopic eczema.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-utility of pimecrolimus as a treatment for mild and moderate atopic eczema when compared with conventional treatments which use TCS and emollients.

METHODS

A Markov state-transition model was developed to represent the cyclical nature of atopic eczema and provide an economic analysis of cost-utility for treatment alternatives from the perspective of a third party payer (U.K. National Health Service). A range of methods was used to obtain data for transition probabilities, costs and quality of life. These included a systematic review of published effectiveness data, expert opinion, and a utility study conducted by the authors. Separate cohort analyses were modelled to distinguish between children and adult populations and between differing treatment patterns for facial and body eczema. One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (using Monte-Carlo simulation) were performed.

RESULTS

Baseline cost-utility outputs from the model show that, in all tested scenarios, TCS dominate pimecrolimus (i.e. TCS are both cheaper and more effective). However, the differences in benefits between treatments output by the model are very small. Sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of cost variations in pimecrolimus. Where pimecrolimus is compared with emollient only it is probably cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30 000 UK pounds per quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSIONS

There are likely to be few situations in which the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of atopic eczema can be justified on economic grounds. Exceptions are likely to be in cases where TCS have been shown to be ineffective, unacceptable due to adverse events, or where a patient is unwilling to accept TCS treatment despite appropriate education and support and emollient alone is the alternative clinical option.

The cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C in former injecting drug users

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C (HCV) among former injecting drug users (IDUs).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases 1996-October 2004. Trent Regional Database Study. Routine UK mortality data.

REVIEW METHODS

A decision analytic model was developed to investigate the impact of case-finding and treatment on progression of HCV disease in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people. This was compared with a cohort in whom no systematic case-finding is implemented but spontaneous presentation for testing is allowed to occur. A group of epidemiological and clinical experts informed the structure of the model, which has three main components: (1) testing and diagnosis, (2) treatment, and (3) long-term consequences of infection. A fourth component, case-finding strategies, examines the potential impact of case-finding in three settings: prisons, general practice and drug services.

RESULTS

Case-finding for HCV is likely to prevent, for 1000 people approached, three cases of decompensated cirrhosis, three deaths due to HCV and one case of hepatocellular cancer (at 30 years). Twenty-five additional people are likely to undergo combination therapy as a result of initial case-finding. One liver transplant is likely to be prevented for 10,000 people included in case-finding. Case-finding is likely to cost, in the general case, around pounds sterling 760,000 more than a policy of not case-finding. The total cost of either strategy is high and driven predominantly by the cost of treatment with combination therapy (the costs of long-term consequences are heavily discounted owing to the duration of the model). Systematically offering testing to 1000 people would cost around pounds sterling 70,000. In terms of life-years gained, case-finding is likely to result in an additional life-year gained for an investment of pounds sterling 20,084. Taking impacts on quality of life into account gives an estimate for the cost-utility of case-finding as pounds sterling 16,514 per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that, if NHS policy makers view pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY as an acceptable return on investment, there is a 74% probability that case-finding for HCV would be considered cost-effective. At pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY, the probability that case-finding would be considered cost-effective is 64%. In all analyses, the probability of case-finding being considered cost-effective at a level of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY was high. Case-finding in drug services is likely to be the most expensive, owing to the high prevalence of cases in the tested population. Correspondingly, benefits are highest for this strategy and cost-effectiveness is similar, in average terms, to the general case. Case-finding in general practice by offering testing to the whole population aged 30-54 years is, paradoxically, estimated to be the least expensive option as only a small number of people accept the offer of testing and HCV prevalence in this group is much higher than would be expected from the general population. Two approaches to case-finding in prison were considered, based on the results of studies in Dartmoor and the Isle of Wight prisons. These differed substantially in the prevalence of cases identified in the tested populations. The analysis based on data from Dartmoor prison had the least favourable average cost-effectiveness of the strategies considered (pounds sterling 20,000 per QALY). Subgroup analyses based on duration of infection show that case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective in people whose infection is more long-standing and who are consequently at greater risk of progression. In people who were infected more than 20 years previously, case-finding yields benefits at around pounds sterling 15,000 per QALY. Treatment effectiveness was modelled using estimates from randomised controlled trials and lower rates of viral response may be seen in practice. However, estimates of cost-effectiveness remained below pounds sterling 30,000 for all levels of treatment effectiveness above 58% of those shown in the relevant trials. The value of information analysis, based on assumptions that 10,000 people might be eligible for case-finding and that programmes would run for 15 years, suggests that the maximum value of further research into case-finding is in excess of pounds sterling 19 million. Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis shows that the utility estimates used in the model eclipse all other factors in terms of importance to parameter uncertainty. This is not surprising, since the point estimates for differences in utility between states and across the arms of the model are small.

CONCLUSIONS

Case-finding for hepatitis C is likely to be considered cost-effective by NHS commissioners. Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it appears unlikely that cost-effectiveness would exceed the levels considered acceptable. Further improvements in the effectiveness of treatments to slow or halt disease progression are likely to improve the cost-effectiveness of case-finding. Case-finding is likely to be most cost-effective if targeted at people whose HCV disease is probably more advanced. Further empirical work is required to specify, in practice, different approaches to case-finding in appropriate settings and to evaluate their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness directly.

Development of the functional capacity screening tool (FCST): A brief instrument to identify functional capacity deficits in anemic cancer patients

8593

Background: Existing fatigue measures are long and often difficult to incorporate in practice. The objective of this study was to develop a short tool (Functional Capacity Screening Tool [FCST]) to identify functional capacity deficits related to fatigue in anemic cancer patients (pts) using self-report and performance-based measures of functional capacity. Methods: Data were obtained from a multicenter, open-label, single-arm study of darbepoetin alfa therapy (3.0 μg/kg every 2 weeks) in cancer pts (n=1558) who were ≥ 18 years of age with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving cyclic chemotherapy and anemia (hemoglobin [Hb] ≤ 11 g/dL). The Modified Harvard Step Test (MHST) was used as a performance-based measure of functional capacity to assess adjusted VO2max. Pts who contributed data for the development of FCST completed the following: MHST, baseline and ≥ 1 follow-up Hb measurement, baseline and ≥ 1 follow-up Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Fatigue (FACT-F), and fatigue assessed within 3 days of MHST. Items from FACT-F, Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI), Fatigue Symptom Inventory (FSI) and Medical Outcomes Study physical functioning scale were tested for inclusion in the FCST. Individual item scores were transformed to a 100-point scale. Item selection was based on identifying best predictors of adjusted VO2max, Hb, and global FACT-F scores using linear regression and the r-square selection method. FCST scores were calculated by summating item scores and dividing by number of items. Results: Data from401 pts contributed to the development of the FCST. Eight items were identified for the FCST with a Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of 0.92. Construct validity was supported by correlations of FCST with FSI (r = 0.80, P < .0001) and BFI (r = 0.86, P < .0001). Correlations between FCST and energy (r = 0.75, P < .0001), productivity (r = 0.72, P < .0001), and Hb (r = 0.24, P < .0001) further supported construct validity. Conclusions: FCST holds promise as a short screening tool for identifying functional capacity deficits in cancer pts. This new instrument was reliable, easy to score, and completed quickly by pts, making it suitable for incorporation in clinical practice. Further validation is required in different cancer populations.

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Improving uptake of cervical cancer screening in women with prolonged history of non-attendance for screening: a randomized trial of enhanced invitation methods

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three methods of inviting women with a long history of non-attendance to undergo cervical screening.

METHODS

Randomized controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis. In all, 1140 women were identified from routine NHS screening records as having no smear for at least 15 years and randomly allocated to receive a telephone call from a nurse, a letter from a well-known celebrity (Claire Rayner) or letter from the local NHS Cervical Screening Commissioner. Uptake of screening was measured using routine data and attributed to interventions if occurring within three months. Uptake was compared with a control group. Costs of carrying out the interventions were noted from the perspective of the NHS and cost-effectiveness, as cost per additional attender, calculated.

RESULTS

Uptake following all interventions was low: telephone call (1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-3.6%); celebrity letter (1.8, 95% CI 0.57-4.0%); commissioner letter (4.6, 95% CI 2.5-7.7%); control group (1.8, 95% CI 0.57-4.0%). There were no significant differences between groups. Telephone intervention was not possible in a quarter of women whose numbers were unlisted. Telephone intervention was the most expensive and least effective of the interventions. The commissioner letter yielded an additional attender within three months at an incremental cost of 23.21 pounds compared with taking no action.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither a telephone call from a nurse nor a letter from a celebrity to encourage attendance for cervical screening were effective or cost-effective in women with a prolonged history of non-participation in the screening programme. A letter from the local cervical screening programme commissioner resulted in a small, non-significant increase in uptake. The low cost and ease of implementation of this intervention supports further research into its use in routine practice.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacemakers compared with single-chamber pacemakers for bradycardia due to atrioventricular block or sick sinus syndrome: systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacemakers versus single-chamber atrial or single-chamber ventricular pacemakers in the treatment of bradycardia due to sick sinus syndrome (SSS) or atrioventricular block (AVB).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases and relevant Internet sites. Contact with device manufacturers and experts in the field.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was carried out of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The quality of selected studies was appraised using standard frameworks. Meta-analyses, using random effects models, were carried out where appropriate. Limited exploration of heterogeneity was possible. Critical appraisal of economic evaluations was carried out using two frameworks. A decision-analytic model was developed using a Markov approach, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber versus ventricular or atrial pacing over 5 and 10 years as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The searches retrieved a systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness published in 2002, four parallel group RCTs and 28 cross-over trials. Dual-chamber pacing was associated with lower rates of atrial fibrillation, particularly in SSS, than ventricular pacing, and prevents pacemaker syndrome. Higher rates of atrial fibrillation were seen with dual-chamber pacing than with atrial pacing. Complications occurred more frequently in dual-chamber pacemaker insertion. The cost of a dual-chamber system, over 5 years, including cost of complications and subsequent clinical events in the population, was estimated to be around 7400 pounds. The overall cost difference between single and dual systems is not large over this period: around 700 pounds more for dual-chamber devices. The cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber compared with ventricular pacing was estimated to be around 8500 pounds per QALY in AVB and 9500 pounds in SSS over 5 years, and around 5500 pounds per QALY in both populations over 10 years. Under more conservative assumptions, the cost-effectiveness of dual-chamber pacing is around 30,000 pounds per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that, under the base-case assumptions, dual-chamber pacing is likely to be considered cost-effective at levels of willingness to pay that are generally considered acceptable by policy makers. In contrast, atrial pacing may be cost-effective compared with dual-chamber pacing.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-chamber pacing results in small but potentially important benefits in populations with SSS and/or AVB compared with ventricular pacemakers. Pacemaker syndrome is a crucial factor in determining cost-effectiveness; however, difficulties in standardising diagnosis and measurement of severity make it difficult to quantify. Dual-chamber pacing is in common usage in the UK. Recipients are more likely to be younger. Insufficient evidence is currently available to inform policy on specific groups who may benefit most from pacing with dual-chamber devices. Further important research is underway. Outstanding research priorities include the economic evaluation of UKPACE studies of the classification, diagnosis and utility associated with pacemaker syndrome and evidence on the effectiveness of pacemakers in children.