Brief formula low-energy-diet for relapse management during weight loss maintenance in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

BACKGROUND

Weight loss maintenance (WLM) is critical for sustaining type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission, but poorly evidenced. We evaluated brief return to formula low-energy-diet (LED) as relapse treatments (RTs) during the WLM phase of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

METHODS

This post-hoc evaluation included all participants commencing the WLM phase of DiRECT. The protocol offered RT when regain of >2 kg occurred.

RESULTS

In total, 123/149 (83%) DiRECT intervention participants commenced the WLM phase after 26 (17%) had withdrawn prior to the WLM phase. Most participants [99/123 (80%)] regained >2 kg during the WLM phase, among whom 60/99 (61%) were recorded as using RT and 39/99 (39%) not using any RT. At baseline, RT users had a higher mean (SD) body mass index [35.8 (4.9) kg m^-2 vs. 33.8 (3.9) kg m^-2 , p = 0.0231] and had greater social deprivation (P = 0.0003) than non-users, although otherwise the groups were similar. Weight loss ≥ 2k g was achieved in 30/93 (32%) of RT attempts. At 2 years, those regaining >2 kg and using RT (n = 60) had mean (SD) weight losses of 7.4 (6.1) kg, with 25 (42%) remissions and 7 (12%) programme withdrawals. Those regaining >2 kg but not using RT (n = 39) had weight losses of 8.8 (6.0) kg, with 21 (54%) remissions and 4 (10%) programme withdrawals (all not significant). Twelve participants were never recorded as having regained >2 kg or using RTs and, at 2 years, their weight losses were 12.9 (9.2) kg, with 4 (33%) remissions and 8 (67%) programme withdrawals.

CONCLUSIONS

Most people with T2D experience weight regain >2 kg during the 2 years after substantial weight loss with a LED. Only one-third of RTs corrected their 2-kg regain, resulting in similar weight losses, remissions and programme withdrawals at 2 years compared to those not using RTs; however, both groups had weight losses below those not recorded as regaining >2 kg during WLM.

2-year remission of type 2 diabetes and pancreas morphology: a post-hoc analysis of the DiRECT open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The pancreas is small and irregular in shape in people with type 2 diabetes. If these abnormalities are caused by the disease state itself rather than being a predisposing factor, remission of type 2 diabetes should restore normal pancreas morphology. The objective of this study was to determine whether changes in pancreas volume and shape occurred during 2 years of remission.

METHODS

For this post-hoc analysis, we included a subset of adult participants of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT), who had type 2 diabetes and were randomly assigned to a weight management intervention or routine diabetes management. Intervention group participants were categorised as responders (HbA_1c <6·5% [48 mmol/mol] and fasting blood glucose <7·0 mmol/L, off all anti-diabetes medication) and non-responders, who were classified as remaining diabetic. Data on pancreas volume and irregularity of pancreas border at baseline, 5 months, 12 months, and 24 months after intervention were compared between responders and non-responders; additional comparisons were made between control group participants with type 2 diabetes and a non-diabetic comparator (NDC) group, who were matched to the intervention group by age, sex, and post-weight-loss weight, to determine the extent of any normalisation. We used a mixed-effects regression model based on repeated measures ANOVA with correction for potential confounding. Magnetic resonance techniques were employed to quantify pancreas volume, the irregularity of the pancreas borders, and intrapancreatic fat content. β-cell function and biomarkers of tissue growth were also measured.

FINDINGS

Between July 25, 2015, and Aug 5, 2016, 90 participants with type 2 diabetes in the DiRECT subset were randomly assigned to intervention (n=64) or control (n=26) and were assessed at baseline; a further 25 non-diabetic participants were enrolled into the NDC group. At baseline, mean pancreas volume was 61·7 cm³ (SD 16·0) in all participants with type 2 diabetes and 79·8 cm³ (14·3) in the NDC group (p<0·0001). At 24 months, pancreas volume had increased by 9·4 cm³ (95% CI 6·1 to 12·8) in responders compared with 6·4 cm³ (2·5 to 10·3) in non-responders (p=0·0008). Pancreas borders at baseline were more irregular in participants with type 2 diabetes than in the NDC group (fractal dimension 1·138 [SD 0·027] vs 1·097 [0·025]; p<0·0001) and had normalised by 24 months in responders only (1·099 [0·028]). Intrapancreatic fat declined by 1·02 percentage points (95% CI 0·53 to 1·51) in 32 responders and 0·51% (-0·17 to 1·19) in 13 non-responders (p=0·23).

INTERPRETATION

These data show for the first time, to our knowledge, reversibility of the abnormal pancreas morphology of type 2 diabetes by weight loss-induced remission.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

'I have been all in, I have been all out and I have been everything in-between': A 2-year longitudinal qualitative study of weight loss maintenance

BACKGROUND

Qualitative studies investigating weight management experiences are usually cross-sectional or of short duration, which limits understanding of the long-term challenges.

METHODS

Eleven women [mean (SD) age 44.9 (9.8) years; body mass index 40.3 (4.0) kg m^-2 ] participated in this longitudinal qualitative study, which included up to 20 weeks of total diet replacement (825-853 kcal day^-1 ) and ongoing support for weight loss maintenance (WLM), to 2 years. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at baseline and programme end, as well as at key intervals during the intervention. Questions examined five theoretical themes: motivation, self-regulation, habits, psychological resources and social/environmental influences. Data were coded and analysed in nvivo (https://qsrinternational.com/nvivo) using the framework method.

RESULTS

In total, 64 interviews were completed (median, n = 6 per participant). Mean (SD) weight loss was 15.7 (9.6) kg (14.6% body weight) at 6 months and 9.6 (9.9) kg (8.8% body weight) at 2 years. The prespecified theoretical model offered a useful framework to capture the variability of experiences. Negative aspects of obesity were strong motivations for weight loss and maintenance. Perceiving new routines as sustainable and developing a 'maintenance mindset' was characteristic of 'Maintainers', whereas meeting emotional needs at the expense of WLM goals during periods of stress and negative mood states was reported more often by 'Regainers'. Optimistic beliefs about maintaining weight losses appeared to interfere with barrier identification and coping planning for most participants.

CONCLUSIONS

People tended to be very optimistic about WLM without acknowledging barriers and this may undermine longer-term outcomes. The potential for regain remained over time, mainly as a result of emotion-triggered eating to alleviate stress and negative feelings. More active self-regulation during these circumstances may improve WLM, and these situations represent important targets for intervention.

Type 2 diabetes remission: 2 year within-trial and lifetime-horizon cost-effectiveness of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Approximately 10% of total healthcare budgets worldwide are spent on treating diabetes and its complications, and budgets are increasing globally because of ageing populations and more expensive second-line medications. The aims of the study were to estimate the within-trial and lifetime cost-effectiveness of the weight management programme, which achieved 46% remissions of type 2 diabetes at year 1 and 36% at year 2 in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

METHODS

Within-trial analysis assessed costs of the Counterweight-Plus intervention in DiRECT (including training, programme materials, practitioner appointments and low-energy diet), along with glucose-lowering and antihypertensive medications, and all routine healthcare contacts. Lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was estimated according to projected durations of remissions, assuming continued relapse rates as seen in year 2 of DiRECT and consequent life expectancy, quality of life and healthcare costs.

RESULTS

Mean total 2 year healthcare costs for the intervention and control groups were £3036 and £2420, respectively: an incremental cost of £616 (95% CI -£45, £1269). Intervention costs (£1411; 95% CI £1308, £1511) were partially offset by lower other healthcare costs (£796; 95% CI £150, £1465), including reduced oral glucose-lowering medications by £231 (95% CI £148, £314). Net remission at 2 years was 32.3% (95% CI 23.5%, 40.3%), and cost per remission achieved was £1907 (lower 95% CI: intervention dominates; upper 95% CI: £4212). Over a lifetime horizon, the intervention was modelled to achieve a mean 0.06 (95% CI 0.04, 0.09) QALY gain for the DiRECT population and mean total lifetime cost savings per participant of £1337 (95% CI £674, £2081), with the intervention becoming cost-saving within 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Incorporating the lifetime healthcare cost savings due to periods of remission from diabetes and its complications, the DiRECT intervention is predicted to be both more effective (QALY gain) and cost-saving in adults with type 2 diabetes compared with standard care. This conclusion appears robust to various less favourable model scenarios, providing strong evidence that resources could be shifted cost-effectively to support achieving remissions with the DiRECT intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN03267836 Graphical abstract.

Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes are associated with higher hemoglobin A1c: findings from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2016

PURPOSE

Evidence of low-carbohydrate, high-fat diets (LCHF) for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) prevention is scarce. We investigated how carbohydrate intake relates to HbA1c and T2DM prevalence in a nationally representative survey dataset.

METHODS

We analyzed dietary information (4-day food diaries) from 3234 individuals aged ≥ 16 years, in eight waves of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2016). We calculated LCHF scores (0-20, higher score indicating lower  %food energy from carbohydrate, with reciprocal higher contribution from fat) and UK Dietary Reference Value (DRV) scores (0-16, based on UK dietary recommendations). Associations between macronutrients and diet scores and diabetes prevalence were analyzed (in the whole sample) using multivariate logistic regression. Among those without diabetes, analyses between exposures and %HbA1c (continuous) were analyzed using multivariate linear regression. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, smoking status, total energy intake, socioeconomic status and survey years.

RESULTS

In the overall study sample, 194 (6.0%) had diabetes. Mean intake was 48.0%E for carbohydrates, and 34.9%E for total fat. Every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate, and every 5%E increase in fat, was associated with 12% (95% CI 0.78-0.99; P = 0.03) and 17% (95% CI 1.02-1.33; P = 0.02) higher odds of diabetes, respectively. Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to 8% (95% CI 1.02-1.14; P = 0.006) higher odds of diabetes, while there was no evidence for association between DRV score and diabetes. Among the participants without diagnosed diabetes (n = 3130), every 5%E decrease in carbohydrate was associated with higher %HbA1c by + 0.016% (95% CI 0.004-0.029; P = 0.012), whereas every 5%E increase in fat was associated with higher  %HbA1c by + 0.029% (95% CI 0.015-0.043; P < 0.001). Each two-point increase in LCHF score is related to higher  %HbA1c by + 0.010% (0.1 mmol/mol), while each two-point increase in the DRV score is related to lower  %HbA1c by - 0.023% (0.23 mmol/mol).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower carbohydrate and higher fat intakes were associated with higher HbA1c and greater odds of having diabetes. These data do not support low(er) carbohydrate diets for diabetes prevention.

Erratum: Validity of predictive equations to estimate RMR in females with varying BMI - CORRIGENDUM

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1017/jns.2020.11.].

Time Course of Normalization of Functional β-Cell Capacity in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial After Weight Loss in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess functional β-cell capacity in type 2 diabetes during 2 years of remission induced by dietary weight loss.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A Stepped Insulin Secretion Test with Arginine was used to quantify functional β-cell capacity by hyperglycemia and arginine stimulation. Thirty-nine of 57 participants initially achieved remission (HbA_1c <6.5% [<48 mmol/mol] and fasting plasma glucose <7 mmol/L on no antidiabetic drug therapy) with a 16.4 ± 7.7 kg weight loss and were followed up with supportive advice on avoidance of weight regain. At 2 years, 20 participants remained in remission in the study. A nondiabetic control (NDC) group, matched for age, sex, and weight after weight loss with the intervention group, was studied once.

RESULTS

During remission, median (interquartile range) maximal rate of insulin secretion increased from 581 (480-811) pmol/min/m² at baseline to 736 (542-998) pmol/min/m² at 5 months, 942 (565-1,240) pmol/min/m² at 12 months (P = 0.028 from baseline), and 936 (635-1,435) pmol/min/m² at 24 months (P = 0.023 from baseline; n = 20 of 39 of those initially in remission). This was comparable to the NDC group (1,016 [857-1,507] pmol/min/m²) by 12 (P = 0.064) and 24 (P = 0.244) months. Median first-phase insulin response increased from baseline to 5 months (42 [4-67] to 107 [59-163] pmol/min/m²; P < 0.0001) and then remained stable at 12 and 24 months (110 [59-201] and 125 [65-166] pmol/min/m², respectively; P < 0.0001 vs. baseline) but lower than that of the NDC group (250 [226-429] pmol/min/m²; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

A gradual increase in assessed functional β-cell capacity occurred after weight loss, becoming similar to that of NDC group participants by 12 months. This result was unchanged at 2 years with continuing remission of type 2 diabetes.

Low and reduced carbohydrate diets: challenges and opportunities for type 2 diabetes management and prevention

Low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) have been promoted for weight control and type 2 diabetes (T2D) management, based on an emerging body of evidence, including meta-analyses with an indication of publication bias. Proposed definitions vary between 50 and 130 g/d, or <10 and <40 % of energy from carbohydrate, with no consensus on LCD compositional criteria. LCD are usually followed with limited consideration for other macronutrients in the overall diet composition, introducing variance in the constituent foods and in metabolic responses. For weight management, extensive evidence supports LCD as a valid weight loss treatment, up to 1-2 years. Solely lowering carbohydrate intake does not, in the medium/long term, reduce HbA1c for T2D prevention or treatment, as many mechanisms interplay. Under controlled feeding conditions, LCD are not physiologically or clinically superior to diets with higher carbohydrates for weight-loss, fat loss, energy expenditure or glycaemic outcomes; indeed, all metabolic improvements require weight loss. Long-term evidence also links the LCD pattern to increased CVD risks and mortality. LCD can lead to micronutrient deficiencies and increased LDL-cholesterol, depending on food selection to replace carbohydrates. Evidence is limited but promising regarding food choices/sources to replace high-carbohydrate foods that may alleviate the negative effects of LCD, demanding further insight into the dietary practice of medium to long term LCD followers. Long-term, high-quality studies of LCD with different food sources (animal and/or plant origins) are needed, aiming for clinical endpoints (T2D incidence and remission, cardiovascular events, mortality). Ensuring micronutrient adequacy by food selection or supplementation should be considered for people who wish to pursue long-term LCD.

The role of appetite-related hormones, adaptive thermogenesis, perceived hunger and stress in long-term weight-loss maintenance: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Weight-loss maintenance is challenging, and few succeed in the long term. This study aimed to explain how appetite-related hormones, adaptive thermogenesis, perceived hunger and stress influence weight-loss maintenance.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Fifteen adult women (age, 46.3 ± 9.5 years; BMI, 39.4 ± 4.3 kg/m²) participated in a 24-month intervention, which included 3-5 months total diet replacement (825-853 kcal/d). Body weight and composition (Magnetic Resonance Imaging), resting metabolic rate (indirect calorimetry), and fasting plasma concentration of leptin, ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), peptide YY (PYY), and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) were measured at baseline and after weight loss, around 6 months. Perceptions relating to weight-loss maintenance were explored using qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) changes in body weight (-13.8 ± 6.3 kg) and total adipose tissue (-11.5 ± 4.9 kg) were significant (P < 0.001). Weight loss was associated with a significant reduction in resting metabolic rate (-291 ± 226 kcal/day, P < 0.001) and adaptive thermogenesis (-150 ± 162 kcal/day, P = 0.003), reduction in leptin (P < 0.001) and GLP-1 (P = 0.015), an increase in ghrelin (P < 0.001), and no changes in PYY and GDF-15. Weight regain between 6 and 24 months (6.1 ± 6.3 kg, P < 0.05) was negatively correlated with GLP-1 at baseline (r = −0.7, P = 0.003) and after weight loss (r = -0.7, P = 0.005). Participants did not report increased hunger after weight loss, and stress-related/emotional eating was perceived as the main reason for regain.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight regain is more likely with lower fasting GLP-1 at baseline and following weight loss, but psychological aspects of eating behaviour appear as important in attenuating weight-loss maintenance.

Hepatic Lipoprotein Export and Remission of Human Type 2 Diabetes after Weight Loss

The role of hepatic lipoprotein metabolism in diet-induced remission of type 2 diabetes is currently unclear. Here, we determined the contributions of hepatic VLDL1-triglyceride production rate and VLDL1-palmitic acid content to changes in intra-pancreatic fat and return of first phase insulin response in a subgroup of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial. Liver fat, VLDL1-triglyceride production, and intra-pancreatic fat decreased after weight loss and remained normalized after 24 months of remission. First-phase insulin response remained increased only in those maintaining diabetes remission. Compared with those in remission at 24 months, individuals who relapsed after initial remission had a greater rise in the content of VLDL1-triglyceride and VLDL1-palmitic acid, re-accumulated intra-pancreatic fat, and lost first-phase response by 24 months. Thus, we observed temporal relationships between VLDL1-triglyceride production, hepatic palmitic acid flux, intra-pancreatic fat, and β-cell function. Weight-related disordered fat metabolism appears to drive development and reversal of type 2 diabetes.

Turning the tables on obesity: young people, IT and social movements

Despite the rising incidence of childhood obesity, international data from Eurostat show that the prevalence of obesity among those aged 15-19 years remains under 5%, which offers an important opportunity for preventing subsequent adult obesity. Young people engage poorly, even obstructively, with conventional health initiatives and are often considered 'hard to reach'. However, when approached in the language of youth, via IT, they express great concern, and unwanted weight gain in young people can be prevented by age-appropriate, independent, online guidance. Additionally, when shown online how 'added value' by industry can generate consumer harms as free market 'externalities', and how obesogenic 'Big Food' production and distribution incur environmental and ethical costs, young people make lasting behavioural changes that attenuate weight gain. This evidence offers a novel approach to obesity prevention, handing the initiative to young people themselves and supporting them with evidence-based methods to develop, propagate and 'own' social movements that can simultaneously address the geopolitical concerns of youth and obesity prevention.

Life Expectancy of White and Non-White Elite Heavyweight Boxers

BACKGROUND

In post-industrial countries, ethnic minorities suffer poorer health and premature deaths. The present study examined ethnic differences in life expectancy and related features among elite heavyweight boxers.

METHODS

Dates of birth and death, anthropometry, and championship years were gathered from media archives for champions and challengers (never been a champion) between years 1889 and 2019. Cox regression adjusted for age at contest, nationality, BMI, champion/challenger status, and number of contests was used to assess survival.

RESULTS

All 237 boxers, 83 champions (37.3% whites) and 154 challengers (61.0% whites), who contested for heavyweight championships were identified. By 2019, 110 (75 whites, 34 non-whites) were known to have died. Non-white boxers died at an earlier age than whites boxers (mean ± SD = 59.8 ± 14.2 years versus 67.3 ± 16.4 years, p = 0.018) and had shorter survival: HR = 2.13 (95% CI = 1.4-3.3). Among non-white boxers, deaths were higher from neurological disorders: OR = 8.2 (95% CI = 1.3-13.5) and accidents: OR = 15.1 (95% CI = 2.3-98.2), while death from natural causes was lower: OR = 0.2 (95% CI = 0.03-0.8). After boxing careers, fewer non-white boxers had non-manual jobs (34.4% versus 71.8%) than manual (34.4% versus 19.7%) or were unemployed (28.1% versus 2.8%). Reported substance abuse was similar across ethnicity (8.0% versus 8.8%) but conviction rates were higher among non-white boxers (17.6%) than white (1.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with white boxers, non-white boxers tend to die younger with excess neurological and accidental deaths, and they have lower social positions in later life. Sporting authorities should reappraise the wisdom of permitting head injuries in sport and monitor and support the health and wellbeing of sports men and women after retirement.

Secular trends in adiposity and musculoskeletal dimensions of elite heavyweight boxers between 1889 and 2019

Purpose

With improving nutrition and health, athletes have grown taller and heavier over the past century. Since there is no weight restriction in the heavyweight class, secular changes in anthropometric measurements of heavyweight boxers may mirror those of contemporary general populations.

Objectives

We aimed to (1) examine secular trends in adiposity and musculoskeletal measurements in heavyweight boxers, (2) determine anthropometric differences between champions and unsuccessful challengers.

Methods

Detailed demographics taken at time of contest (first official World Championship to current contest: 1889–2019) were collected from media archives.

Results

All 237 boxers (83 champions, 154 challengers) contesting a recognised heavyweight World Championships were identified. They had mean (± SD) age = 28.9 ± 4.1 years, height = 187.3 ± 6.5 cm, reach = 195.2 ± 9.4 cm, weight = 97.5 ± 11.5 kg, BMI = 27.8 ± 2.4 kg/m2 and waist = 87.9 ± 6.2 cm. Contest years explained 25.9% (p < 0.001) of the variance in BMI for champions and 30.9% (p < 0.001) for challengers, 9.1% (p < 0.071) in WC for champions and 19.9% (p < 0.001) for challengers. Contest years correlated with height (r = 0.531, p < 0.001), reach (r = 0.341, p < 0.001), weight (r = 0.603, p < 0.001) and BMI (r = 0.370, p = 0.001) among all documented boxers, and with waist only in challengers (r = 0.349, p < 0.001) but not in champions (r = 0.078, p = 0.509). Compared with challengers, champions had greater stature by + 3.4 cm (p < 0.001), reach + 3.6 cm (p = 0.005) and weight + 3.7 kg (p = 0.017), with similar BMI and waist. Champions had larger biceps and forearms but did not differ from challengers in other musculoskeletal dimensions.

Conclusions

Over 130 years elite heavyweight boxers have increased in size (BMI) and reach but waists in champions have remained static. Being heavier, taller with longer and bigger arms, but with similar in BMI and waist, appear to be differentiating factors between champions and challengers.

Impacts of carbohydrate-restricted diets on micronutrient intakes and status: A systematic review

A systematic review of published evidence on micronutrient intake/status with carbohydrate-restricted diets (CRD) was conducted in Web of Science, Medline, Embase, Scopus, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov up to October 2018. We identified 10 studies: seven randomized controlled trials (RCTs) ("Atkins"-style, n = 5; "Paleolithic" diets, n = 2), two Atkins-style noncontrolled trials and one cross-sectional study. Prescribed carbohydrate varied 4% to 34% of energy intake. Only one noncontrolled trial prescribed multivitamin supplements. Dietary intakes/status were reported over 2 to 104 weeks, with weight losses from 2 to 9 kg. No diagnoses of deficiency were reported. Intakes of thiamine, folate, magnesium, calcium, iron, and iodine all decreased significantly (-10% to -70% from baseline) with any CRD types. Atkins diet trials (n = 6; 4%-34%E carbohydrate) showed inconsistent changes in vitamin A, E, and β-carotene intakes, while a single "Paleolithic" diet trial (28%E carbohydrate) reported increases in these micronutrients. One other "Paleolithic" diet (30%E carbohydrate) reported a rise in moderate iodine deficiency from 15% to 73% after 6 months. In conclusion, few studies have assessed the impacts of CRD on micronutrients. Studies with different designs point towards reductions in several vitamins and minerals, with potential risk of micronutrient inadequacies. Trial reporting standards are expected to include analysis of micronutrient intake/status. Micronutrients in foods and/or supplements should be considered when designing, prescribing or following CRDs.

Associations of BMI, waist circumference, body fat, and skeletal muscle with type 2 diabetes in adults

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is known to be associated with high BMI and waist circumference (WC). These measures do not discriminate well between skeletal muscle (SM) and body fat (BF), which may have opposite influences.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of population-based data from 58,128 aged 18-85 yrs from Scottish Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2011) and Health Surveys for England (2003-2006, 2008-2013), excluding pregnant women and insulin-treated diabetes. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of known T2D, and of screened HbA1c > 48 mmol/mol (> 6.5%), with sex-specific quintiles of BMI, WC, and BF% and SM% estimated by validated anthropometric equations, adjusted for age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, country, and survey year.

RESULTS

As expected, ORs for having known T2D rose with quintiles of BMI (1, 1.5, 2.3, 3.1, and 6.5) and WC (1, 1.8, 2.5, 3.5, and 8.7). Compared to the lowest BF% quintile, OR for having T2D in highest BF% quintile was 11.1 (95% CI = 8.4-14.6). Compared to the highest SM% quintile, OR for having T2D in lowest SM% quintile was 2.0 (1.7-2.4). Of 72 adults with T2D/HbA1c > 6.5% in the lowest quintile of BF%, 27 (37.5%) were in quintile 1 of SM%. Similar patterns of OR were observed for having HbA1c > 6.5% in those without known T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated BF% associates strongly with T2D. Low SM% also has a significant association, suggesting a neglected aspect of aetiology within T2D. These two simple measures with biological relevance, available from data collected in most health surveys, may be more useful than the purely statistical terms BMI.

Type 2 diabetes remission: economic evaluation of the DiRECT/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme within a primary care randomized controlled trial

AIM

The Counterweight-Plus weight management programme achieved 46% remission of Type 2 diabetes at 1 year in the DiRECT trial. We estimated the implementation costs of the Counterweight-Plus programme and its 1-year cost-effectiveness in terms of diabetes remission, compared with usual care, from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

METHODS

Within-trial total costs included programme set-up and running costs (practitioner appointment visits, low-energy formula diet sachets and training), oral anti-diabetes and anti-hypertensive medications, and healthcare contacts. Total costs were calculated for aggregated resource use for each participant and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were based on 1000 non-parametric bootstrap iterations.

RESULTS

One-year programme costs under trial conditions were estimated at £1137 per participant (95% CI £1071, £1205). The intervention led to a significant cost-saving of £120 (95% CI £78, £163) for the oral anti-diabetes drugs and £14 (95% CI £7.9, £22) for anti-hypertensive medications compared with the control. Deducting the cost-savings of all healthcare contacts from the intervention cost resulted an incremental cost of £982 (95% CI £732, £1258). Cost per 1 year of diabetes remission was £2359 (95% CI £1668, £3250).

CONCLUSIONS

Remission of Type 2 diabetes within 1-year can be achieved at a cost below the annual cost of diabetes (including complications). Providing a reasonable proportion of remissions can be maintained over time, with multiple medical gains expected, as well as immediate social benefits, there is a case for shifting resources within diabetes care budgets to offer support for people with Type 2 diabetes to attempt remission. (Clinical Trial Registry No.: ISRCTN03267836).

Predictive model of length of stay in hospital among older patients

BACKGROUND

Most National Health Service (NHS) hospital bed occupants are older patients because of their frequent admissions and prolonged length of stay (LOS). We evaluated demographic and clinical factors as predictors of LOS in a single NHS Trust and derived an equation to estimate LOS.

METHODS

Stepwise logistic and linear regressions were used to predict prolonged LOS (upper-quintile LOS > 17 days) and LOS respectively, from demographic factors and acute and pre-existing conditions.

RESULTS

Of 374 (men:women = 127:247) admitted patients (20% to orthogeriatric, 69% to general medical and 11% to surgical wards), median age of 85 years (IQR = 78-90), 77 had acute first hip fracture; 297 had previous hip fracture (median time since previous fracture = 2.4 years) and 21 (7.1%) had recurrent hip fracture, with median time since first fracture = 2.4 years. Median LOS was 6.5 days (IQR = 1.8-14.8), and 38 (10.2%) died after 4.8 days (IQR = 1.6-14.3). Prolonged LOS was associated with discharge to places other than usual residence: OR = 3.1 (95% CI 1.7-5.7), acute stroke: OR = 10.1 (3.7-26.7), acute first hip fractures: OR = 6.8 (3.1-14.8), recurrent hip fractures: OR = 9.5 (3.2-28.7), urinary tract infection/pneumonia: OR = 4.0 (2.1-8.0), other acute fractures: OR = 9.8 (3.0-32.3) and malignancy: OR = 15.0 (3.1-71.8). Predictive equation showed estimated LOS was 11.6 days for discharge to places other than usual residence, 15 days for pre-existing or acute stroke, 9-14 days for acute and recurrent hip fractures, infections, other acute fractures and malignancy; these factors together explained 32% of variability in LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

A useful estimate of outcome and LOS can be made by constructing a predictive equation from information on hospital admission, to provide evidence-based guidance for resource requirements and discharge planning.

Durability of a primary care-led weight-management intervention for remission of type 2 diabetes: 2-year results of the DiRECT open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The DiRECT trial assessed remission of type 2 diabetes during a primary care-led weight-management programme. At 1 year, 68 (46%) of 149 intervention participants were in remission and 36 (24%) had achieved at least 15 kg weight loss. The aim of this 2-year analysis is to assess the durability of the intervention effect.

METHODS

DiRECT is an open-label, cluster-randomised, controlled trial done at primary care practices in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated list to provide an integrated structured weight-management programme (intervention) or best-practice care in accordance with guidelines (control), with stratification for study site (Tyneside or Scotland) and practice list size (>5700 or ≤5700 people). Allocation was concealed from the study statisticians; participants, carers, and study research assistants were aware of allocation. We recruited individuals aged 20-65 years, with less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, BMI 27-45 kg/m², and not receiving insulin between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetes and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. The coprimary outcomes, analysed hierarchically in the intention-to-treat population at 24 months, were weight loss of at least 15 kg, and remission of diabetes, defined as HbA_1c less than 6·5% (48 mmol/mol) after withdrawal of antidiabetes drugs at baseline (remission was determined independently at 12 and 24 months). The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836, and follow-up is ongoing.

FINDINGS

The intention-to-treat population consisted of 149 participants per group. At 24 months, 17 (11%) intervention participants and three (2%) control participants had weight loss of at least 15 kg (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7·49, 95% CI 2·05 to 27·32; p=0·0023) and 53 (36%) intervention participants and five (3%) control participants had remission of diabetes (aOR 25·82, 8·25 to 80·84; p<0·0001). The adjusted mean difference between the control and intervention groups in change in bodyweight was -5·4 kg (95% CI -6·9 to -4·0; p<0·0001) and in HbA_1c was -4·8 mmol/mol (-8·3 to -1·4 [-0·44% (-0·76 to -0·13)]; p=0·0063), despite only 51 (40%) of 129 patients in the intervention group using anti-diabetes medication compared with 120 (84%) of 143 in the control group. In a post-hoc analysis of the whole study population, of those participants who maintained at least 10 kg weight loss (45 of 272 with data), 29 (64%) achieved remission; 36 (24%) of 149 participants in the intervention group maintained at least 10 kg weight loss. Serious adverse events were similar to those reported at 12 months, but were fewer in the intervention group than in the control group in the second year of the study (nine vs 22).

INTERPRETATION

The DiRECT programme sustained remissions at 24 months for more than a third of people with type 2 diabetes. Sustained remission was linked to the extent of sustained weight loss.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

Associations of body fat and skeletal muscle with hypertension

Hypertension is known to be associated with obesity, while its relationship to skeletal muscle, SM (SM; a marker of general health and body function), remains uncertain. We analyzed population-based data of 22 591 men (mean age: 51.6 ± 16.9 years) and 27 845 nonpregnant women (50.6 ± 16.9 years) from Scottish Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2011) and Health Surveys for England (2003-2006, 2008-2013) including 2595 non-insulin- and 536 insulin-treated diabetic patients. Compared with normotensive individuals (no hypertension history with normal systolic [SBP < 140 mm Hg] and diastolic blood pressure [DBP < 90 mm Hg]), percent body fat (BF%) was significantly higher and percent SM lower (P < 0.001) in undetected (no hypertension history with raised SBP ≥ 140 and/or DBP ≥ 90 mm Hg), controlled (hypertension history with normal BP), uncontrolled (hypertension history with raised BP), and untreated hypertension. The prevalences of hypertension within BF% quintiles were 11.8%, 24.8%, 41.4%, 56.8%, and 71.6% and SM% quintiles were 67.5%, 53.3%, 39.5%, 27.4%, and 18.5%. Compared to referent groups (lowest BF% quintile or highest SM% quintile), odds ratio (age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, country, survey year, and diabetes adjusted) for having all types of hypertension in the highest BF% quintile was 5.5 (95% confidence interval = 5.0-5.9) and lowest SM% quintile was 2.3 (2.2-2.5). Compared with those without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had a 2.3-fold-2.6-fold greater risk of hypertension, independent of confounding factors and BF% or SM%. The associations of hypertension with BF% were higher than those with body mass index (BMI). In conclusion, both BF and SM should be considered when analyzing results from health surveys, rather than relying on BMI which does not discriminate between the two.