Phase III study of cisplatin with or without S-1 in patients with stage IVB, recurrent, or persistent cervical cancer

Background

This open-label phase III trial evaluated efficacy and safety of S-1 plus cisplatin vs. cisplatin alone as first-line chemotherapy in patients with stage IVB, recurrent, or persistent cervical cancer.

Methods

Patients were randomised (1:1) to S-1 plus cisplatin (study group) or cisplatin alone (control group). In each cycle, cisplatin 50 mg/m² was administered on Day 1 in both groups. S-1 was administered orally at 80–120 mg daily on Days 1–14 of a 21-day cycle in the study group. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS).

Results

A total of 375 patients were enrolled, of whom 364 (188, study group; 176, control group) received treatment. Median OS was 21.9 and 19.5 months in the study and control groups, respectively (log-rank P = 0.125; hazard ratio [HR] 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67–1.05). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 7.3 and 4.9 months in the study and control groups, respectively (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.48–0.80, P < 0.001). The adverse event (AE) rate increased in the study group despite the absence of any unexpected AEs.

Conclusions

S-1 plus cisplatin did not show superiority over cisplatin alone in OS but significantly increased PFS in patients with stage IVB, recurrent, or persistent cervical cancer. Since the standard therapy has changed in the course of this study, further studies are warranted to confirm the clinical positioning of S-1 combined with cisplatin for this population.

Providing written information increases patient satisfaction: a web-based questionnaire survey of Japanese cancer survivors

Purpose

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the United States recommends that all cancer survivors be provided with a survivorship care plan (SCP), which includes a patient treatment summary and a follow-up care plan. However, SCPs have not been widely adopted in Japan. To provide basic data necessary for implementing SCPs in Japan, we aimed to investigate the forms of clinical and survivorship-related information that Japanese cancer survivors receive from their healthcare providers, and to examine whether written information increases their satisfaction.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional online survey of cancer survivors who underwent acute cancer treatment and had at least one follow-up with a physician in the past year. Cancer survivors provided the elements and forms (verbally and/or written) of information they received, as well as the degree of satisfaction with the information provided.

Results

Responses were obtained from 545 cancer survivors. Information elements such as surgical procedure (98.3%), surgical outcome (98.1%), and names of administered chemotherapy agents (97.8%) were commonly provided, whereas mental care resources and providers (29.7%), effects on marital relationship and sexual health (35.7%), and effects on fertility (43.4%) were less common. A large proportion of cancer survivors received verbal information only. For 18 of 20 elements, except for effects on fertility and duration of hormonal therapy, satisfaction was significantly higher when both forms of information were provided (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

Providing written and verbal explanations of clinical and survivorship-related information can better meet the needs of Japanese cancer survivors.

Standardization of Growth Hormone and Insulin-like Growth Factor-I Measurements

Measurement of the levels of growth hormone (GH) and its related factor insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) is essential for the diagnosis and treatment of GH deficiency (GHD) and conditions related to excess GH such as acromegaly and pituitary gigantism. Measurement of GH levels is also used as an indicator of hypothalamic-pituitary function. Because of the marked variability in GH measurements among kits, the Study Committee for GH and Its Related Factors of The Foundation for Growth Science, Japan standardized GH values measured with various commercially available GH assay kits in Japan. The committee also established IGF-I reference values for Japanese subjects of all ages, from childhood to adulthood. Hopefully, international harmonization of GH measurements will be achieved in the future.

Abstract P5-11-03: Difference between 1st and 2nd generation serotonin receptor antagonists in triplet antiemetic therapy for highly emetogenic chemotherapy in breast cancer patients – according to recent multi-institutional double-blind randomized clinical research on the AC regimen

&lt;Background&gt;

The information presented herein extends our recent study of TTT (Trial for Triplet Antiemetic Therapy).

One of our main clinical questions has been whether a 2nd generation serotonin receptor antagonist (5-HT3ra) would be superior to 1st generation 5-HT3ra when administering triplet antiemetic therapy for the prevention of chemotherapy induced nausea & vomiting (CINV), since a prior Japanese trial demonstrated palonosetron to be superior to granisetron for controlling the delayed phase of CINV induced by highly emetogenic chemotherapy (HEC) and to doublet antiemetic therapy including dexamethasone for anthracycline and cyclophosphamide containing regimens (AC).

&lt;Objectives&gt;

In this study, we assessed the efficacies of 1st and 2nd generation 5-HT3ra agents for use as triplet antiemetic therapy for AC, by monitoring CINV, focusing especially daily CR in the delayed phase.

&lt;Material and method&gt;

Between 2012 and 2015, 491 women with breast cancer receiving AC were recruited from 11 institutions in Japan, and randomly assigned to either single-dose palonosetron (0.75mg) or granisetron (40μg/kg) prior to chemotherapy on day 1, both with dexamethasone (9.9 mg intravenously) and aprepitant (125mg orally) on day 1 followed by additional doses (80mg orally) on days 2 and 3. Age, institution and habitual alcohol intake were used as stratification factors. The primary endpoint was a complete response (CR). Statistical analysis was done by Mantel-Haenszel Method. This trial was registered with UMIN000007882.

&lt;Results&gt;

All 491 patients were included in efficacy analyses (ITT): 246 patients in the palonosetron group and 245 in the granisetron group. We previously reported that the difference in CR during the delayed phase, i.e. 24 hours after the administration of AC, did not reach statistical significance (53.8% vs 58.5%) in MASCC 2016. However, daily CR in the palonosetron group was much higher than that in the granisetron group after 48 hours.

&lt;Conclusions&gt;

Palonosetron showed better efficacy in controlling CINV during the late period of the delayed phase, i.e. 48 hours after AC administration, than granisetron as triplet antiemetic therapy for AC.

&lt;Considerations&gt;

The pattern of CINV reportedly shows two peaks including an acute phase caused by serotonin and a delayed phase caused by substance P, though the pattern of CINV with triplet antiemetic therapy administration might be different if the suppression of each of these peaks were to be achieved more efficiently. CINV may not be divided into two phases in the future, or the borderline area between the acute and delayed phases may require revision. The analysis of the late period of the delayed phase was ad hoc in this trial. However, when conducting studies related to CINV, it might be worthwhile to revise the borderline area between the two phases of CINV to facilitate elucidating the mechanisms underlying this potentially debilitating side effect of chemotherapy.

Citation Format: Ogata H, Saito M, Tsuneizumi M, Kutomi G, Hosoya K, Kawai Y, Sugizaki K, Katsumata N, Senuma K, Kitabatake T, Suda M, Uomori T, Miura K, Kurata M, Nitta Y, Yonemoto N, Matsuoka J. Difference between 1st and 2nd generation serotonin receptor antagonists in triplet antiemetic therapy for highly emetogenic chemotherapy in breast cancer patients – according to recent multi-institutional double-blind randomized clinical research on the AC regimen [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-11-03.

Continuing efforts to standardize measured serum growth hormone values in Japan

Determination of serum growth hormone (GH) levels is mandatory for diagnosis of GH deficiency and excess. In the present study, we, the Study Committee for GH and Its Related Factors, The Foundation for Growth Science, Japan measured GH values in serum samples using all the commercially available kits in Japan. Significant discrepancies in the GH values were observed among the kits in spite of using the unified recombinant human GH-based standards. To deal with the discrepancies, we established a formula using a linear structural relationship model and were able to standardize the GH values. We propose to use the formula to diagnose GH deficiency and excess in Japan.

Extra-adrenal induction of Cyp21a1 ameliorates systemic steroid metabolism in a mouse model of congenital adrenal hyperplasia

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to steroid 21-hydroxylase (21-OH) deficiency (21-OHD) is an autosomal recessive disorder, in which CYP21A2 mutations or deletions result in underproduction of glucocorticoid and mineralocorticoid, and overproduction of androgens. Patients with CAH are treated with oral steroid supplementation, but optimal control of blood steroid levels remains difficult. Thus, new therapeutic approaches are still needed. Previously, adenovirus-mediated administration of human CYP21A2 to adrenal glands rescued the phenotype of a mouse model of 21-OHD. In this study, we examined whether transduction of murine Cyp21a1 in extra-adrenal tissues could rescue steroid metabolism in 21-OHD mice. We transduced primary fibroblasts obtained from 21-OHD mice with a retroviral vector containing Cyp21a1. In vitro assays demonstrated that Cyp21a1-expressing fibroblasts can uptake progesterone from the culture media, convert it to deoxycorticosterone (DOC), and subsequently release DOC back into the media. Autotransplantation of Cyp21a1-expressing fibroblasts into the subcutaneous tissues of the back resulted in a significant reduction in the serum progesterone/DOC ratio in four of six 21-OHD mice at 4 weeks after injection. We also directly injected an adeno-associated viral vector containing Cyp21a1 into the thigh muscles of 21-OHD mice. Serum progesterone/DOC ratios were markedly reduced in all four animals at 4 weeks after injection. These results indicate that extra-adrenal induction of Cyp21a1 ameliorates steroid metabolism in 21-OHD mice. This study suggests a novel therapeutic strategy for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, which warrants further investigations.

NR0B1 Frameshift Mutation in a Boy with Idiopathic Central Precocious Puberty

NR0B1 is the causative gene for X-linked adrenal hypoplasia congenita, characterized by adrenal insufficiency, hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, and infertility. We identified an NR0B1 frameshift mutation in a boy with precocious puberty who had no signs of adrenal insufficiency. Blood examination revealed elevated testosterone levels and gonadotropin hyperresponses to gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation, together with normal adrenal hormone levels. GnRH analog treatment partially ameliorated his clinical features. Molecular analysis identified a p.Glu3fsAla*16 in NR0B1. These results expand the clinical manifestations of NR0B1 mutations to include central precocious puberty without adrenal insufficiency. NR0B1 mutations likely underlie androgen overproduction via GnRH-dependent and -independent mechanisms.

[Acute Hyperuricemia and Kidney Injury after Three Cycles of Dose-Dense Chemotherapy for Retroperitoneal Choriocarcinoma -- A Case Report]

A 32 year-old man was diagnosed with retroperitoneal choriocarcinoma with metastasis to the lungs and liver. One cycle of modified BEP regimen did not sufficiently decrease the hCG. Therefore, we chose the GETUG 13 protocol of dose dense chemotherapy. After 6 days of cisplatin administration(3 cycles), he was diagnosed with acute hyperuricemia and kidney injury. He was treated with intravenous hydration and rasburicase. The hyperuricemia improved after a few days.

The influence of familial factors on the choice of the place of death for terminally ill breast cancer patients: a retrospective single-center study

BACKGROUND

The social or familial factors influencing the location chosen for end-of-life (EOL) care for terminally ill breast cancer patients are unknown.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 195 patients with recurrent or progressive breast cancer who received anticancer treatment at the National Cancer Center Hospital between January 2008 and May 2012. Detailed data concerning the patients' demographic, familial, and clinical characteristics were collected, and multivariate and Cox logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of these characteristics on the place of EOL care and on survival, respectively.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients (34.9 %) died in a hospital, 26 patients (13.3 %) at home, and 101 patients (51.8 %) in hospice. Most of the patients having caregivers received EOL care at palliative care facilities (hospice or home) [odds ratio (OR) 2.57; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1-6.6; p = 0.05]. In contrast, patients with factors suggesting a clinically severe status (performance status ≥2, use of opioids, delirium, and ascites) more often received EOL care in a hospital. Among patients who received EOL care at hospice or home, patients with minor children received EOL care at home (OR 0.08; 95 % CI 0.02-0.38; p = 0.001). Patients with brain metastases chose hospice (OR 12.37; 95 % CI 2.25-68.13; p = 0.004). Furthermore, having a caregiver was associated with prolonged survival (hazard ratio 0.62; 95 % CI 0.39-0.97; p = 0.035).

CONCLUSION

Familial factors such as having children and caregivers significantly influenced the place of EOL care for terminally ill breast cancer patients.

Attitudes and practice patterns for maintaining relative dose intensity of chemotherapy in outpatient clinics: results of a Japanese web-based survey

Background

This analysis was undertaken to evaluate the practice patterns of Japanese physicians regarding curative-intent chemotherapy, especially in outpatient settings, and to define factors negatively affecting the maintenance of relative dose intensity (RDI).

Methods

We performed a web-based questionnaire survey of Japanese physicians involved in malignant lymphoma chemotherapy (Group ML) or in breast cancer chemotherapy (Group BC). The questionnaire inquired how they manage low-risk febrile neutropenia (FN) caused by initial chemotherapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma(DLBCL) or by adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer in an outpatient setting.

Results

Valid responses were obtained from 185 physicians in Group ML and 160 in Group BC. In Group ML, 76 % (n = 141) of the physicians were board-certified hematologists, while 82 % (n = 131) of the physicians in Group BC were board-certified surgeons. A significantly higher proportion of physicians in Group ML responded that “dose reduction is not required for the subsequent course of chemotherapy after the first episode of FN” than in Group BC (ML versus BC; 77 % versus 31 %; P < 0.001). Significantly higher proportions of physicians in Group ML were more likely to prophylactically administer antibiotics or granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF; ML versus BC; antibiotics: 36 % versus 26 %, P = 0.049; G-CSF: 25 % versus 16 %, P = 0.047). Eighty six percent (n = 159) of Group ML and 70 % (n = 112) of Group BC responded that “emergency outpatient unit is open at all hours”.

Conclusions

Japanese physicians are more likely to administer reduced doses of chemotherapy to patients with breast cancer than to patients with malignant lymphoma. Supportive infrastructures should be improved to ensure the provision of adequate chemotherapy to all cancer patients.

Paclitaxel Plus Carboplatin Versus Paclitaxel Plus Cisplatin in Metastatic or Recurrent Cervical Cancer: The Open-Label Randomized Phase III Trial JCOG0505

PURPOSE

In metastatic or recurrent cervical cancer, cisplatin-based chemotherapy is standard. The JCOG0505 randomized phase III trial evaluated the clinical benefits of carboplatin-based regimen.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Eligible patients had metastatic or recurrent cervical cancer and had ≤ one platinum-containing treatment and no prior taxane. Patients were randomly assigned either to conventional paclitaxel plus cisplatin (TP; paclitaxel 135 mg/m(2) over 24 hours on day 1 and cisplatin 50 mg/m(2) on day 2, repeated every 3 weeks) or paclitaxel plus carboplatin (TC; paclitaxel 175 mg/m(2) over 3 hours and carboplatin area under curve 5 mg/mL/min on day 1, repeated every 3 weeks). Primary end point was overall survival (OS). Planned sample size was 250 patients to confirm the noninferiority of TC versus TP with the threshold hazard ratio (HR) of 1.29.

RESULTS

Between February 2006 and November 2009, 253 patients were enrolled. The HR of OS was 0.994 (90% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; noninferiority P = .032 by stratified Cox regression). Median OS was 18.3 months with TP versus 17.5 months with TC. Among patients who had not received prior cisplatin, OS was shorter with TC (13.0 v 23.2 months; HR, 1.571; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.32). One treatment-related death occurred with TC. Proportion of nonhospitalization periods was significantly longer with TC (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

TC was noninferior to TP and should be a standard treatment option for metastatic or recurrent cervical cancer. However, cisplatin is still the key drug for patients who have not received platinum agents.

A phase I study of farletuzumab, a humanized anti-folate receptor α monoclonal antibody, in patients with solid tumors

Farletuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody against folate receptor α (FRA). The purpose of the study is to assess safety and tolerability, the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile, and preliminary antitumor effect. Patients with ovarian cancer (OC) or FRA-expressing solid tumors who are resistant to standard treatments were eligible for the study. After single-dose administration for PK assessment, farletuzumab was administered by intravenous injection, repeating every week until disease progression. Dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) were defined as grade 4 hematological and grade 3/4 nonhematological toxicities. Dose escalation was planned in 4 cohorts (50, 100, 200, and 400 mg/m²). Fourteen patients with OC and two patients with gastric cancer (GC) received farletuzumab infusion. Neither DLTs nor grade 3/4 toxicities were reported in all cohorts. Major adverse events, including grade 1/2 infusion related reaction (15 patients, 93.8 %), headache (seven patients, 43.8 %), and nausea and decreased appetite (five patients each, 31.3 %), were observed and medically managed. AUC and C_max increased dose-dependently and linear PK profiles were observed. No tumor shrinkage was recorded, but long-term disease stabilization for 25 and 20 months was observed in one patient with clear cell OC (100 mg/m²) and one patient with GC (400 mg/m²), respectively. No cumulative toxicity occurred in any patient. Farletuzumab was well tolerated in Japanese patients with a similar PK profile as compared with the US population. Long-term disease stabilization was observed in a subpopulation of clear cell OC and GC; both of them were resistant and progressive after standard chemotherapies (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01049061).

Phase II trial of oral etoposide plus intravenous irinotecan in patients with platinum-resistant and taxane-pretreated ovarian cancer (JCOG0503)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the safety and efficacy of the combination of oral etoposide and intravenous irinotecan in patients with platinum-resistant and taxane-pretreated ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Eligible patients (age, 20-75years; platinum-free interval, ≤28weeks) with an adequate organ function received oral etoposide (50mg/m(2) once a day) from day 1 to day 21 and intravenous irinotecan (70mg/m(2)) on days 1 and 15. The regimen was repeated every 28days up to 6cycles. The primary endpoint was the response rate (RR) with a threshold of 20%. The response was evaluated according to RECIST 1.0 and Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup CA-125 Response Definition, and toxicities were evaluated according to CTCAE version 3.0. This trial was registered at UMIN-CTR as UMIN000001837.

RESULTS

Between April 1, 2009 and January 20, 2012, 61 patients were enrolled. Sixty patients were eligible. 1 CR and 12 PRs were confirmed; RR was 21.7% (p=0.42, the exact binomial test). PFS and OS were 4.1 and 11.9months, respectively. Major toxicities of ≥grade 3 were neutropenia (60%), anemia (36.7%), thrombocytopenia (11.7%), febrile neutropenia (18.3%), fatigue (13.3%), anorexia (11.7%), and nausea (11.7%). Three patients died from treatment related death (interstitial pneumonia, a pulmonary embolism, and DIC due to infection). Two of these patients were aged ≥65years.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral etoposide and intravenous irinotecan had a moderate RR but did not meet the primary endpoint. Because of toxicity, we do not recommend this regimen outside of clinical trials. In particular, when considering this regimen for elderly patients, extreme caution is advised.

Quality-of-life outcomes from a randomized phase III trial of dose-dense weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin compared with conventional paclitaxel and carboplatin as a first-line treatment for stage II-IV ovarian cancer: Japanese Gynecologic Oncology Group Trial (JGOG3016)

BACKGROUND

Dose-dense weekly paclitaxel (Taxol) and carboplatin (dd-TC) improved survival compared with conventional tri-weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin (c-TC) as a first-line chemotherapy for newly diagnosed stage II-IV ovarian cancer in the Japanese Gynecologic Oncology Group 3016 trial. We report the quality-of-life (QoL) results from this trial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 637 patients were randomly assigned to receive c-TC or dd-TC (c-TC, n = 319; dd-TC, n = 312) and were asked to complete a QoL assessment at baseline, just after the third and sixth chemotherapy cycles, and at 12 months after randomization. QoL was assessed using Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT)-general (FACT-G), FACT-taxane subscale (FACT-T), and FACT-ovary subscale (FACT-Ov). The overall QoL and that according to each subscale were analyzed using mixed-effects models adjusted for treatment and time.

RESULTS

Baseline QoL assessment was completed by 204 out of 319 (63.9%) and 200 out of 312 (64.1%) patients in the c-TC and dd-TC groups, respectively. In these groups, the compliance rates with regard to QoL assessment were 74.5% and 73.0%, respectively, after three chemotherapy cycles; 86.8% and 86.9%, respectively, after six chemotherapy cycles; and 74.2% and 71.6%, respectively, at 12 months after randomization. The overall QoL did not differ significantly between the two treatment groups up to 12 months after randomization (P = 0.46). However, QoL according to the FACT-T subscale was significantly lower in the dd-TC group than in the c-TC group (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

dd-TC does not decrease overall QoL compared with c-TC.

Effect of communication skills training program for oncologists based on patient preferences for communication when receiving bad news: a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to identify the effects of a communication skills training (CST) program for oncologists, developed based on patient preferences regarding oncologists' communication.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

Thirty oncologists were randomly assigned to either an intervention group (IG; 2-day CST workshop) or control group (CG). Participants were assessed on their communication performance during simulated consultation and their confidence in communicating with patients at baseline and follow-up. A total of 1,192 patients (response rate, 84.6%) who had consultations with the participating oncologists at baseline and/or follow-up were assessed regarding their distress using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, satisfaction with the consultation, and trust in their oncologist after the consultation.

RESULTS

At the follow-up survey, the performance scores of the IG had improved significantly, in terms of their emotional support (P = .011), setting up a supportive environment (P = .002), and ability to deliver information (P = .001), compared with those of the CG. Oncologists in the IG were rated higher at follow-up than those in the CG in terms of their confidence in themselves (P = .001). Patients who met with oncologists after they had undergone the CST were significantly less depressed than those who met with oncologists in the CG (P = .027). However, the CST program did not affect patient satisfaction with oncologists' style of communication.

CONCLUSION

A CST program based on patient preferences is effective for both oncologists and patients with cancer. Oncologists should consider CST as an approach to enhancing their communication skills.

Two novel HSD3B2 missense mutations with diverse residual enzymatic activities for Δ5-steroids

CONTEXT

Classical 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (3β-HSD) deficiency (3β-HSDD) is caused by loss-of-function mutations in the HSD3B2 gene encoding type II 3β-HSD, which has a key role in steroid biosynthesis, converting Δ5-steroids to Δ4-steroids in adrenal glands and gonads.

PATIENT

A patient (46, XX) was found to have elevated 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP) [203 nmol/l (normal range: 2·94 ± 0·9 nmol/l)] by newborn screening. Endocrinological examination revealed dramatically increased Δ5-steroids [e.g. 17-OH pregnenolone: 910 nmol/l (normal range: 12·6 ± 10·5 nmol/l)]. The patient had virilization of external genitalia with labial fusion, suggesting classical 3β-HSDD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consistent with the endocrinological data, the patient was a compound heterozygote for two novel missense mutations (p.Y190C and p.S218P) that were identified in HSD3B2. Both Y190 and S218 are conserved among mammals. The mutant proteins had severely impaired residual enzymatic activity in vitro, although both mutants retained higher activity for 17-OH pregnenolone than for the other Δ5-steroids. In a three-dimensional model of the enzyme based on the known structures of similar proteins, both mutations were located extremely close to the predicted substrate-binding pocket. This suggests that the mutations can cause a local conformational change in the substrate-binding pocket, leading to alterations of the binding affinities for Δ5-steroids.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified two novel missense mutations of HSD3B2 that resulted in unbalanced residual enzymatic activities for Δ5-steroids. As a potential novel mechanism, we propose that the mutations, which differently affect the activity towards different substrates, the effects of these mutations provide novel insights into the pathophysiology of 3β-HSDD.

Can oncologists predict survival for patients with progressive disease after standard chemotherapies?

BACKGROUND

Prediction of prognosis is important for patients so that they can make the most of the rest of their lives. Oncologists could predict survival, but the accuracy of such predictions is unclear.

METHODS

In this observational prospective cohort study, 14 oncologists treating 9 major adult solid malignancies were asked to complete questionnaires predicting survival based on performance status, oral intake, and other clinical factors when patients experienced progressive disease after standard chemotherapies. Clinically predicted survival (cps) was calculated by the oncologists from the date of progressive disease to the predicted date of death. Actual survival (as) was compared with cps using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and factors affecting inaccurate prediction were determined by logistic regression analysis. The prediction of survival time was considered accurate when the cps/as ratio was between 0.67 and 1.33.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 75 patients. Median cps was 120 days (interquartile range: 60-180 days), and median as was 121 days (interquartile range: 40-234 days). The participating oncologists accurately predicted as within a 33% range 36% of the time; the survival time was overestimated 36% of time and underestimated 28% of the time. The factors affecting the accuracy of the survival estimate were the experience of the oncologist, patient age, and information given about the palliative care unit.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction of cps was accurate for just slightly more than one third of all patients in this study. Additional investigation of putative prognostic factors with a larger sample size is warranted.