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Abbott BP, Abbott R, Abbott TD, Abraham S, Acernese F, Ackley K, Adams C, Adya VB, Affeldt C, Agathos M, Agatsuma K, Aggarwal N, Aguiar OD, Aiello L, Ain A, Ajith P, Akutsu T, Allen G, Allocca A, Aloy MA, Altin PA, Amato A, Ananyeva A, Anderson SB, Anderson WG, Ando M, Angelova SV, Antier S, Appert S, Arai K, Arai K, Arai Y, Araki S, Araya A, Araya MC, Areeda JS, Arène M, Aritomi N, Arnaud N, Arun KG, Ascenzi S, Ashton G, Aso Y, Aston SM, Astone P, Aubin F, Aufmuth P, AultONeal K, Austin C, Avendano V, Avila-Alvarez A, Babak S, Bacon P, Badaracco F, Bader MKM, Bae SW, Bae YB, Baiotti L, Bajpai R, Baker PT, Baldaccini F, Ballardin G, Ballmer SW, Banagiri S, Barayoga JC, Barclay SE, Barish BC, Barker D, Barkett K, Barnum S, Barone F, Barr B, Barsotti L, Barsuglia M, Barta D, Bartlett J, Barton MA, Bartos I, Bassiri R, Basti A, Bawaj M, Bayley JC, Bazzan M, Bécsy B, Bejger M, Belahcene I, Bell AS, Beniwal D, Berger BK, Bergmann G, Bernuzzi S, Bero JJ, Berry CPL, Bersanetti D, Bertolini A, Betzwieser J, Bhandare R, Bidler J, Bilenko IA, Bilgili SA, Billingsley G, Birch J, Birney R, Birnholtz O, Biscans S, Biscoveanu S, Bisht A, Bitossi M, Bizouard MA, Blackburn JK, Blair CD, Blair DG, Blair RM, Bloemen S, Bode N, Boer M, Boetzel Y, Bogaert G, Bondu F, Bonilla E, Bonnand R, Booker P, Boom BA, Booth CD, Bork R, Boschi V, Bose S, Bossie K, Bossilkov V, Bosveld J, Bouffanais Y, Bozzi A, Bradaschia C, Brady PR, Bramley A, Branchesi M, Brau JE, Briant T, Briggs JH, Brighenti F, Brillet A, Brinkmann M, Brisson V, Brockill P, Brooks AF, Brown DA, Brown DD, Brunett S, Buikema A, Bulik T, Bulten HJ, Buonanno A, Buskulic D, Buy C, Byer RL, Cabero M, Cadonati L, Cagnoli G, Cahillane C, Bustillo JC, Callister TA, Calloni E, Camp JB, Campbell WA, Canepa M, Cannon K, Cannon KC, Cao H, Cao J, Capocasa E, Carbognani F, Caride S, Carney MF, Carullo G, Diaz JC, Casentini C, Caudill S, Cavaglià M, Cavalier F, Cavalieri R, Cella G, Cerdá-Durán P, Cerretani G, Cesarini E, Chaibi O, Chakravarti K, Chamberlin SJ, Chan M, Chan ML, Chao S, Charlton P, Chase EA, Chassande-Mottin E, Chatterjee D, Chaturvedi M, Chatziioannou K, Cheeseboro BD, Chen CS, Chen HY, Chen KH, Chen X, Chen Y, Chen YR, Cheng HP, Cheong CK, Chia HY, Chincarini A, Chiummo A, Cho G, Cho HS, Cho M, Christensen N, Chu HY, Chu Q, Chu YK, Chua S, Chung KW, Chung S, Ciani G, Ciobanu AA, Ciolfi R, Cipriano F, Cirone A, Clara F, Clark JA, Clearwater P, Cleva F, Cocchieri C, Coccia E, Cohadon PF, Cohen D, Colgan R, Colleoni M, Collette CG, Collins C, Cominsky LR, Constancio M, Conti L, Cooper SJ, Corban P, Corbitt TR, Cordero-Carrión I, Corley KR, Cornish N, Corsi A, Cortese S, Costa CA, Cotesta R, Coughlin MW, Coughlin SB, Coulon JP, Countryman ST, Couvares P, Covas PB, Cowan EE, Coward DM, Cowart MJ, Coyne DC, Coyne R, Creighton JDE, Creighton TD, Cripe J, Croquette M, Crowder SG, Cullen TJ, Cumming A, Cunningham L, Cuoco E, Canton TD, Dálya G, Danilishin SL, D’Antonio S, Danzmann K, Dasgupta A, Da Silva Costa CF, Datrier LEH, Dattilo V, Dave I, Davier M, Davis D, Daw EJ, DeBra D, Deenadayalan M, Degallaix J, De Laurentis M, Deléglise S, Pozzo WD, DeMarchi LM, Demos N, Dent T, De Pietri R, Derby J, De Rosa R, De Rossi C, DeSalvo R, de Varona O, Dhurandhar S, Díaz MC, Dietrich T, Fiore LD, Giovanni MD, Girolamo TD, Lieto AD, Ding B, Pace SD, Palma ID, Renzo FD, Dmitriev A, Doctor Z, Doi K, Donovan F, Dooley KL, Doravari S, Dorrington I, Downes TP, Drago M, Driggers JC, Du Z, Ducoin JG, Dupej P, Dwyer SE, Easter PJ, Edo TB, Edwards MC, Effler A, Eguchi S, Ehrens P, Eichholz J, Eikenberry SS, Eisenmann M, Eisenstein RA, Enomoto Y, Essick RC, Estelles H, Estevez D, Etienne ZB, Etzel T, Evans M, Evans TM, Fafone V, Fair H, Fairhurst S, Fan X, Farinon S, Farr B, Farr WM, Fauchon-Jones EJ, Favata M, Fays M, Fazio M, Fee C, Feicht J, Fejer MM, Feng F, Fernandez-Galiana A, Ferrante I, Ferreira EC, Ferreira TA, Ferrini F, Fidecaro F, Fiori I, Fiorucci D, Fishbach M, Fisher RP, Fishner JM, Fitz-Axen M, Flaminio R, Fletcher M, Flynn E, Fong H, Font JA, Forsyth PWF, Fournier JD, Frasca S, Frasconi F, Frei Z, Freise A, Frey R, Frey V, Fritschel P, Frolov VV, Fujii Y, Fukunaga M, Fukushima M, Fulda P, Fyffe M, Gabbard HA, Gadre BU, Gaebel SM, Gair JR, Gammaitoni L, Ganija MR, Gaonkar SG, Garcia A, García-Quirós C, Garufi F, Gateley B, Gaudio S, Gaur G, Gayathri V, Ge GG, Gemme G, Genin E, Gennai A, George D, George J, Gergely L, Germain V, Ghonge S, Ghosh A, Ghosh A, Ghosh S, Giacomazzo B, Giaime JA, Giardina KD, Giazotto A, Gill K, Giordano G, Glover L, Godwin P, Goetz E, Goetz R, Goncharov B, González G, Castro JMG, Gopakumar A, Gorodetsky ML, Gossan SE, Gosselin M, Gouaty R, Grado A, Graef C, Granata M, Grant A, Gras S, Grassia P, Gray C, Gray R, Greco G, Green AC, Green R, Gretarsson EM, Groot P, Grote H, Grunewald S, Gruning P, Guidi GM, Gulati HK, Guo Y, Gupta A, Gupta MK, Gustafson EK, Gustafson R, Haegel L, Hagiwara A, Haino S, Halim O, Hall BR, Hall ED, Hamilton EZ, Hammond G, Haney M, Hanke MM, Hanks J, Hanna C, Hannam MD, Hannuksela OA, Hanson J, Hardwick T, Haris K, Harms J, Harry GM, Harry IW, Hasegawa K, Haster CJ, Haughian K, Hayakawa H, Hayama K, Hayes FJ, Healy J, Heidmann A, Heintze MC, Heitmann H, Hello P, Hemming G, Hendry M, Heng IS, Hennig J, Heptonstall AW, Heurs M, Hild S, Himemoto Y, Hinderer T, Hiranuma Y, Hirata N, Hirose E, Hoak D, Hochheim S, Hofman D, Holgado AM, Holland NA, Holt K, Holz DE, Hong Z, Hopkins P, Horst C, Hough J, Howell EJ, Hoy CG, Hreibi A, Hsieh BH, Huang GZ, Huang PW, Huang YJ, Huerta EA, Huet D, Hughey B, Hulko M, Husa S, Huttner SH, Huynh-Dinh T, Idzkowski B, Iess A, Ikenoue B, Imam S, Inayoshi K, Ingram C, Inoue Y, Inta R, Intini G, Ioka K, Irwin B, Isa HN, Isac JM, Isi M, Itoh Y, Iyer BR, Izumi K, Jacqmin T, Jadhav SJ, Jani K, Janthalur NN, Jaranowski P, Jenkins AC, Jiang J, Johnson DS, Jones AW, Jones DI, Jones R, Jonker RJG, Ju L, Jung K, Jung P, Junker J, Kajita T, Kalaghatgi CV, Kalogera V, Kamai B, Kamiizumi M, Kanda N, Kandhasamy S, Kang GW, Kanner JB, Kapadia SJ, Karki S, Karvinen KS, Kashyap R, Kasprzack M, Katsanevas S, Katsavounidis E, Katzman W, Kaufer S, Kawabe K, Kawaguchi K, Kawai N, Kawasaki T, Keerthana NV, Kéfélian F, Keitel D, Kennedy R, Key JS, Khalili FY, Khan H, Khan I, Khan S, Khan Z, Khazanov EA, Khursheed M, Kijbunchoo N, Kim C, Kim C, Kim JC, Kim J, Kim K, Kim W, Kim WS, Kim YM, Kimball C, Kimura N, King EJ, King PJ, Kinley-Hanlon M, Kirchhoff R, Kissel JS, Kita N, Kitazawa H, Kleybolte L, Klika JH, Klimenko S, Knowles TD, Knyazev E, Koch P, Koehlenbeck SM, Koekoek G, Kojima Y, Kokeyama K, Koley S, Komori K, Kondrashov V, Kong AKH, Kontos A, Koper N, Korobko M, Korth WZ, Kotake K, Kowalska I, Kozak DB, Kozakai C, Kozu R, Kringel V, Krishnendu N, Królak A, Kuehn G, Kumar A, Kumar P, Kumar R, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kume J, Kuo CM, Kuo HS, Kuo L, Kuroyanagi S, Kusayanagi K, Kutynia A, Kwak K, Kwang S, Lackey BD, Lai KH, Lam TL, Landry M, Lane BB, Lang RN, Lange J, Lantz B, Lanza RK, Lartaux-Vollard A, Lasky PD, Laxen M, Lazzarini A, Lazzaro C, Leaci P, Leavey S, Lecoeuche YK, Lee CH, Lee HK, Lee HM, Lee HW, Lee J, Lee K, Lee RK, Lehmann J, Lenon A, Leonardi M, Leroy N, Letendre N, Levin Y, Li J, Li KJL, Li TGF, Li X, Lin CY, Lin F, Lin FL, Lin LCC, Linde F, Linker SD, Littenberg TB, Liu GC, Liu J, Liu X, Lo RKL, Lockerbie NA, London LT, Longo A, Lorenzini M, Loriette V, Lormand M, Losurdo G, Lough JD, Lousto CO, Lovelace G, Lower ME, Lück H, Lumaca D, Lundgren AP, Luo LW, Lynch R, Ma Y, Macas R, Macfoy S, MacInnis M, Macleod DM, Macquet A, Magaña-Sandoval F, Zertuche LM, Magee RM, Majorana E, Maksimovic I, Malik A, Man N, Mandic V, Mangano V, Mansell GL, Manske M, Mantovani M, Marchesoni F, Marchio M, Marion F, Márka S, Márka Z, Markakis C, Markosyan AS, Markowitz A, Maros E, Marquina A, Marsat S, Martelli F, Martin IW, Martin RM, Martynov DV, Mason K, Massera E, Masserot A, Massinger TJ, Masso-Reid M, Mastrogiovanni S, Matas A, Matichard F, Matone L, Mavalvala N, Mazumder N, McCann JJ, McCarthy R, McClelland DE, McCormick S, McCuller L, McGuire SC, McIver J, McManus DJ, McRae T, McWilliams ST, Meacher D, Meadors GD, Mehmet M, Mehta AK, Meidam J, Melatos A, Mendell G, Mercer RA, Mereni L, Merilh EL, Merzougui M, Meshkov S, Messenger C, Messick C, Metzdorff R, Meyers PM, Miao H, Michel C, Michimura Y, Middleton H, Mikhailov EE, Milano L, Miller AL, Miller A, Millhouse M, Mills JC, Milovich-Goff MC, Minazzoli O, Minenkov Y, Mio N, Mishkin A, Mishra C, Mistry T, Mitra S, Mitrofanov VP, Mitselmakher G, Mittleman R, Miyakawa O, Miyamoto A, Miyazaki Y, Miyo K, Miyoki S, Mo G, Moffa D, Mogushi K, Mohapatra SRP, Montani M, Moore CJ, Moraru D, Moreno G, Morisaki S, Moriwaki Y, Mours B, Mow-Lowry CM, Mukherjee A, Mukherjee D, Mukherjee S, Mukund N, Mullavey A, Munch J, Muñiz EA, Muratore M, Murray PG, Nagano K, Nagano S, Nagar A, Nakamura K, Nakano H, Nakano M, Nakashima R, Nardecchia I, Narikawa T, Naticchioni L, Nayak RK, Negishi R, Neilson J, Nelemans G, Nelson TJN, Nery M, Neunzert A, Ng KY, Ng S, Nguyen P, Ni WT, Nichols D, Nishizawa A, Nissanke S, Nocera F, North C, Nuttall LK, Obergaulinger M, Oberling J, O’Brien BD, Obuchi Y, O’Dea GD, Ogaki W, Ogin GH, Oh JJ, Oh SH, Ohashi M, Ohishi N, Ohkawa M, Ohme F, Ohta H, Okada MA, Okutomi K, Oliver M, Oohara K, Ooi CP, Oppermann P, Oram RJ, O’Reilly B, Ormiston RG, Ortega LF, O’Shaughnessy R, Oshino S, Ossokine S, Ottaway DJ, Overmier H, Owen BJ, Pace AE, Pagano G, Page MA, Pai A, Pai SA, Palamos JR, Palashov O, Palomba C, Pal-Singh A, Pan HW, Pan KC, Pang B, Pang HF, Pang PTH, Pankow C, Pannarale F, Pant BC, Paoletti F, Paoli A, Papa MA, Parida A, Park J, Parker W, Pascucci D, Pasqualetti A, Passaquieti R, Passuello D, Patil M, Patricelli B, Pearlstone BL, Pedersen C, Pedraza M, Pedurand R, Pele A, Arellano FEP, Penn S, Perez CJ, Perreca A, Pfeiffer HP, Phelps M, Phukon KS, Piccinni OJ, Pichot M, Piergiovanni F, Pillant G, Pinard L, Pinto I, Pirello M, Pitkin M, Poggiani R, Pong DYT, Ponrathnam S, Popolizio P, Porter EK, Powell J, Prajapati AK, Prasad J, Prasai K, Prasanna R, Pratten G, Prestegard T, Privitera S, Prodi GA, Prokhorov LG, Puncken O, Punturo M, Puppo P, Pürrer M, Qi H, Quetschke V, Quinonez PJ, Quintero EA, Quitzow-James R, Raab FJ, Radkins H, Radulescu N, Raffai P, Raja S, Rajan C, Rajbhandari B, Rakhmanov M, Ramirez KE, Ramos-Buades A, Rana J, Rao K, Rapagnani P, Raymond V, Razzano M, Read J, Regimbau T, Rei L, Reid S, Reitze DH, Ren W, Ricci F, Richardson CJ, Richardson JW, Ricker PM, Riles K, Rizzo M, Robertson NA, Robie R, Robinet F, Rocchi A, Rolland L, Rollins JG, Roma VJ, Romanelli M, Romano R, Romel CL, Romie JH, Rose K, Rosińska D, Rosofsky SG, Ross MP, Rowan S, Rüdiger A, Ruggi P, Rutins G, Ryan K, Sachdev S, Sadecki T, Sago N, Saito S, Saito Y, Sakai K, Sakai Y, Sakamoto H, Sakellariadou M, Sakuno Y, Salconi L, Saleem M, Samajdar A, Sammut L, Sanchez EJ, Sanchez LE, Sanchis-Gual N, Sandberg V, Sanders JR, Santiago KA, Sarin N, Sassolas B, Sathyaprakash BS, Sato S, Sato T, Sauter O, Savage RL, Sawada T, Schale P, Scheel M, Scheuer J, Schmidt P, Schnabel R, Schofield RMS, Schönbeck A, Schreiber E, Schulte BW, Schutz BF, Schwalbe SG, Scott J, Scott SM, Seidel E, Sekiguchi T, Sekiguchi Y, Sellers D, Sengupta AS, Sennett N, Sentenac D, Sequino V, Sergeev A, Setyawati Y, Shaddock DA, Shaffer T, Shahriar MS, Shaner MB, Shao L, Sharma P, Shawhan P, Shen H, Shibagaki S, Shimizu R, Shimoda T, Shimode K, Shink R, Shinkai H, Shishido T, Shoda A, Shoemaker DH, Shoemaker DM, ShyamSundar S, Siellez K, Sieniawska M, Sigg D, Silva AD, Singer LP, Singh N, Singhal A, Sintes AM, Sitmukhambetov S, Skliris V, Slagmolen BJJ, Slaven-Blair TJ, Smith JR, Smith RJE, Somala S, Somiya K, Son EJ, Sorazu B, Sorrentino F, Sotani H, Souradeep T, Sowell E, Spencer AP, Srivastava AK, Srivastava V, Staats K, Stachie C, Standke M, Steer DA, Steinke M, Steinlechner J, Steinlechner S, Steinmeyer D, Stevenson SP, Stocks D, Stone R, Stops DJ, Strain KA, Stratta G, Strigin SE, Strunk A, Sturani R, Stuver AL, Sudhir V, Sugimoto R, Summerscales TZ, Sun L, Sunil S, Suresh J, Sutton PJ, Suzuki T, Suzuki T, Swinkels BL, Szczepańczyk MJ, Tacca M, Tagoshi H, Tait SC, Takahashi H, Takahashi R, Takamori A, Takano S, Takeda H, Takeda M, Talbot C, Talukder D, Tanaka H, Tanaka K, Tanaka K, Tanaka T, Tanaka T, Tanioka S, Tanner DB, Tápai M, Martin ENTS, Taracchini A, Tasson JD, Taylor R, Telada S, Thies F, Thomas M, Thomas P, Thondapu SR, Thorne KA, Thrane E, Tiwari S, Tiwari S, Tiwari V, Toland K, Tomaru T, Tomigami Y, Tomura T, Tonelli M, Tornasi Z, Torres-Forné A, Torrie CI, Töyrä D, Travasso F, Traylor G, Tringali MC, Trovato A, Trozzo L, Trudeau R, Tsang KW, Tsang TTL, Tse M, Tso R, Tsubono K, Tsuchida S, Tsukada L, Tsuna D, Tsuzuki T, Tuyenbayev D, Uchikata N, Uchiyama T, Ueda A, Uehara T, Ueno K, Ueshima G, Ugolini D, Unnikrishnan CS, Uraguchi F, Urban AL, Ushiba T, Usman SA, Vahlbruch H, Vajente G, Valdes G, Bakel NV, Beuzekom MV, Brand JFJVD, Broeck CVD, Vander-Hyde DC, Schaaf LVD, Heijningen JVV, Putten MHPMV, Veggel AAV, Vardaro M, Varma V, Vass S, Vasúth M, Vecchio A, Vedovato G, Veitch J, Veitch PJ, Venkateswara K, Venugopalan G, Verkindt D, Vetrano F, Viceré A, Viets AD, Vine DJ, Vinet JY, Vitale S, Vivanco FH, Vo T, Vocca H, Vorvick C, Vyatchanin SP, Wade AR, Wade LE, Wade M, Walet R, Walker M, Wallace L, Walsh S, Wang G, Wang H, Wang J, Wang JZ, Wang WH, Wang YF, Ward RL, Warden ZA, Warner J, Was M, Watchi J, Weaver B, Wei LW, Weinert M, Weinstein AJ, Weiss R, Wellmann F, Wen L, Wessel EK, Weßels P, Westhouse JW, Wette K, Whelan JT, Whiting BF, Whittle C, Wilken DM, Williams D, Williamson AR, Willis JL, Willke B, Wimmer MH, Winkler W, Wipf CC, Wittel H, Woan G, Woehler J, Wofford JK, Worden J, Wright JL, Wu CM, Wu DS, Wu HC, Wu SR, Wysocki DM, Xiao L, Xu WR, Yamada T, Yamamoto H, Yamamoto K, Yamamoto K, Yamamoto T, Yancey CC, Yang L, Yap MJ, Yazback M, Yeeles DW, Yokogawa K, Yokoyama J, Yokozawa T, Yoshioka T, Yu H, Yu H, Yuen SHR, Yuzurihara H, Yvert M, Zadrożny AK, Zanolin M, Zeidler S, Zelenova T, Zendri JP, Zevin M, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang T, Zhao C, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zhou Z, Zhu XJ, Zhu ZH, Zimmerman AB, Zucker ME, Zweizig J. Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA. LIVING REVIEWS IN RELATIVITY 2020; 23:3. [PMID: 33015351 PMCID: PMC7520625 DOI: 10.1007/s41114-020-00026-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2019] [Accepted: 05/27/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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