Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics, serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To expand a new competing-risks model for prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, by the addition of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF), and to evaluate and compare PAPP-A and PlGF in predicting SGA.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. We fitted a folded-plane regression model for the PAPP-A and PlGF likelihoods. A previously developed maternal history model and the likelihood models were combined, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model. McNemar's test was used to compare the detection rates for SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia (PE) occurrence, of different combinations of maternal history, PAPP-A and PlGF, for a fixed false-positive rate.

RESULTS

The distributions of PAPP-A and PlGF depend on both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, in the same continuous likelihood, according to a folded-plane regression model. The new approach offers the capability for risk computation for any desired birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery cut-off. PlGF was consistently and significantly better than PAPP-A in predicting SGA delivered before 37 weeks, especially in cases with co-existence of PE. PAPP-A had similar performance to PlGF for the prediction of SGA without PE. At a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, the combination of maternal history, PlGF and PAPP-A predicted 33.8%, 43.8% and 48.4% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 38.6%, 48.7% and 51.0%. The new model performed well in terms of risk calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of PAPP-A and PlGF values with maternal characteristics, according to Bayes' theorem, improves prediction of SGA. PlGF is a better predictor of SGA than PAPP-A, especially when PE is present. The new competing-risks model for SGA can be tailored to each pregnancy and to the relevant clinical requirements. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Diagnostic accuracy of first-trimester combined screening for early-onset and preterm pre-eclampsia at 8-10 compared with 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To compare the ability of first-trimester combined screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) to predict early-onset and preterm PE when pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF) were assessed before vs after 11 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies undergoing routine first-trimester screening conducted at Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain, between October 2015 and September 2017. Demographic characteristics, obstetric history, maternal history and biophysical markers (mean uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP)) were recorded at the first-trimester scan (at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation). Maternal serum concentrations of PAPP-A and PlGF were assessed from the routine first-trimester blood test (at 8 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks). Women were classified into two groups depending on whether serum biomarkers were assessed at 8 + 0 to 10 + 6 weeks or at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks. Probability scores for early-onset and preterm PE were calculated by using two different algorithms: the multivariate Gaussian-distribution model and The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model. Receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curves were produced and detection rates at fixed 5% and 10% false-positive rates were computed to compare the performance of these algorithms when PAPP-A and PlGF were assessed before vs after 11 weeks.

RESULTS

Of the 2641 women included, serum biomarkers were assessed before 11 weeks in 1675 (63.4%) and at or after 11 weeks in 966 (36.6%). Of these, 90 (3.4%) women developed PE, including 11 (0.4%) cases of early-onset PE and 30 (1.1%) of preterm PE. Five (45.5%) cases of early-onset and 16 (53.3%) of preterm PE were identified in the group in which serum biomarkers were assessed at 8 + 0 to 10 + 6 weeks and six (54.5%) cases of early-onset and 14 (46.7%) of preterm PE in the group in which serum biomarkers were assessed at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks. In the prediction of early-onset and preterm PE using the Gaussian algorithm, no differences were observed between the areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) when PAPP-A and PlGF were measured before or after 11 weeks. In the prediction of early-onset and preterm PE using the FMF algorithm, no differences were observed between AUCs for any of the combinations used for risk calculation when the serum biomarkers were obtained before vs after 11 weeks, except for the combination of PAPP-A and MAP, which showed a greater AUC for the prediction of early-onset PE when PAPP-A was measured at or after 11 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction of early-onset and preterm PE is similar when serum biomarkers are measured before or after 11 weeks. This allows the use of a two-step approach for PE risk assessment that permits immediate risk calculation at the time of the first-trimester scan. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, based on maternal factors and biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies had pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor (PlGF) measurements, 59 001 had uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) measurements and 58 479 had mean arterial pressure measurements; 57 131 cases had complete data for all biomarkers. We used a previously developed competing-risks model for the joint distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, according to maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. The likelihoods of the biophysical markers were developed by fitting folded-plane regression models, a technique that has already been used in previous studies for the likelihoods of biochemical markers. The next step was to modify the prior distribution by the likelihood, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We used the 57 131 cases with complete data to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model for predicting SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia, by different combinations of maternal factors and biomarkers.

RESULTS

The distribution of biomarkers, conditional to both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, was best described by folded-plane regression models. These continuous two-dimensional likelihoods update the joint distribution of birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery that has resulted from a competing-risks approach; this method allows application of user-defined cut-offs. The best biophysical predictor of preterm SGA was UtA-PI and the best biochemical marker was PlGF. The prediction of SGA was consistently better for increasing degree of prematurity, greater severity of smallness, coexistence of PE and increasing number of biomarkers. The combination of maternal factors with all biomarkers predicted 34.3%, 48.6% and 59.1% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, at a 10% false-positive rate. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 39.9%, 53.2% and 64.4%, and for birth weight < 3^rd percentile with pre-eclampsia they were 46.3%, 66.8% and 80.4%. The new model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has presented a single continuous two-dimensional model for prediction of SGA for any desired cut-offs of smallness and GA at delivery, laying the ground for a personalized antenatal plan for predicting and managing SGA, in the milieu of a new inverted pyramid of prenatal care. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To develop a continuous likelihood model for pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), in the context of a new competing-risks model for prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, and to compare the predictive performance of the new model for SGA to that of previous methods.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The dataset was divided randomly into a training dataset and a test dataset. The training dataset was used for PAPP-A likelihood model development. We used Bayes' theorem to combine the previously developed prior model for the joint Gaussian distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score with the PAPP-A likelihood to obtain a posterior distribution. This patient-specific posterior joint Gaussian distribution of GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score allows risk calculation for SGA defined in terms of different birth-weight percentiles and GA. The new model was validated internally in the test dataset and we compared its predictive performance to that of the risk-scoring system of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and that of logistic regression models for different SGA definitions.

RESULTS

PAPP-A has a continuous association with both birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery according to a folded-plane regression. The new model, with the addition of PAPP-A, was equal or superior to several logistic regression models. The new model performed well in terms of risk calibration and consistency across different GAs and birth-weight percentiles. In the test dataset, at a false-positive rate of about 30% using the criteria defined by NICE, the new model predicted 62.7%, 66.5%, 68.1% and 75.3% of cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 42, < 37, < 34 and < 30 weeks' gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective values of 46.7%, 55.0%, 55.9% and 52.8% achieved by application of the NICE guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Using Bayes' theorem to combine PAPP-A measurement data with maternal characteristics improves the prediction of SGA and performs better than logistic regression or NICE guidelines, in the context of a new competing-risks model for the joint distribution of birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The effect of aspirin on preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction and preterm delivery among healthy pregnancies with a history of preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

Due to the significance of preeclampsia (PE) and its adverse outcomes in the health of both mother and newborn, the present study was carried out to investigate the effect of aspirin on preventing the occurrence of PE, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), and preterm delivery in women with a previous history of PE.

METHODS

The present clinical trial was conducted on 90 pregnant women with a previous history of PE referred to the Khalij Fars Hospital in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province Iran from April 2017 to August 2018. The subjects of the study were randomly assigned into two groups of intervention and control to receive either 80 mg of aspirin or placebo daily during the pregnancy. Patients' information was obtained and recorded upon entering the study, follow-up visits, and childbirth.

RESULTS

Among participants who entered the clinical trial, 86 patients (95.6%) completed the study. During the pregnancy, systolic blood pressure increased by 8.25 ± 14.83 and 19.06 ± 18.33 mmHg in aspirin and placebo groups, respectively (p = 0.001). Also, the same happened with diastolic blood pressure (6.12 ± 11.46 vs 13.48 ± 13.95 mmHg, p = 0.010). The rate of PE was equal to 27 (62.8%) and 38 (88.4%) in the aspirin and placebo groups, respectively (aOR = 0.23, p = 0.013). In the aspirin group, the rate of IUGR was equal to 27.9% compared with 25.6% of newborns in the control group (aOR = 1.18, p = 0.750). Similarly, there was no significant difference in the rate of preterm delivery between the two groups (p = 0.061).

CONCLUSION

The findings of the present study conducted exclusively on women with previous documented PE revealed that taking aspirin may have a preventive effect on PE in the current pregnancy.

Ultrasound features prior to 11 weeks' gestation and first-trimester maternal factors in prediction of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

OBJECTIVES

Maternal hypertensive disorders (MHD), including pregnancy-induced hypertension and pre-eclampsia, are estimated to occur in 7-10% of pregnancies worldwide and have significant short- and long-term implications for both mother and fetus. This study aimed to determine the association of conventional and novel early first-trimester ultrasound measures with MHD and whether these ultrasound measures, combined with maternal characteristics and biochemistry, improve the prediction of MHD.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of consecutive women with a singleton pregnancy, attending for an early (5 + 1 to 11 + 0 weeks' gestation) ultrasound examination at a private obstetric ultrasound practice between February 2016 and August 2018. Recorded ultrasound measurements included mean sac diameter, yolk sac diameter, crown-rump length, fetal heart rate (FHR), trophoblast thickness, trophoblast volume (TV) and mean uterine artery pulsatility index. Maternal biochemistry was assessed at 10-14 weeks and included beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PlGF) and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. Regression models were fitted for each ultrasound parameter and multiples of the median (MoM) were calculated. All measures were compared between women who had a normotensive outcome and those who subsequently developed MHD. Logistic regression analysis was used to create a prediction model for MHD based on maternal characteristics, ultrasound measurements at 5 + 1 to 11 + 0 weeks' gestation and maternal biochemistry at 10-14 weeks.

RESULTS

In total, 1141 women were included in the analysis, of whom 1086 (95.2%) were normotensive at delivery and 55 (4.8%) developed MHD. Women who developed MHD weighed significantly more than did normotensive women (P < 0.0001). Mean MoM values for TV (P = 0.006), PAPP-A (P = 0.031) and PlGF (P = 0.044) were decreased significantly in pregnancies that subsequently developed MHD. The proposed logistic regression model includes maternal weight and height and MoM values for TV, FHR and PlGF, resulting in an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86).

CONCLUSION

The combination of maternal weight and height, TV and FHR, measured prior to 11 weeks' gestation, and first-trimester PlGF appears to have good predictive value for development of MHD later in pregnancy. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First trimester PAPP-A serum levels and long-term metabolic outcome of mothers and their offspring

Low maternal serum levels of pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) are known to be associated with the development of pregnancy-related complications like small for gestational age infants, intrauterine fetal demise, gestational diabetes and preeclampsia. The study aims to find possible long-term correlations with the development of metabolic and cardiovascular complications in the mothers and their progeny in later life. This is a retrospective cohort study conducted on consecutive unselected women screened for chromosomal anomalies in the first trimester of pregnancy between 2004 and 2010. PAPP-A values as well as clinical data collected at childbirth were considered. A maternal and neonatal follow-up was performed through a telephone interview with the mother during 2015. The body-mass-index and the presence of cardiovascular diseases, dyslipidaemia and diabetes mellitus were evaluated. The analysis included 988 patients. The median time of follow-up was 7 years (IQR 6-9). Lower first trimester maternal blood PAPP-A quartiles were associated with small stature of the offspring (z-score 1st-2nd quartile 0.37 IQR -0.42 and 1.17 vs 3rd-4th quartile 0.67 IQR -0.17 and 1.36, p < 0.05). Furthermore, low first trimester PAPP-A in pregnancy without other gestations following the index one, in Kaplan-Meier analysis was associated to a significant increase of hypoglycemic agents use at 7 and 10 years (respectively 1.12% CI.95 0-2.38% and 5.45% CI.95 0-10.82%) compared to the control group of high first trimester PAPP-A values (0% CI.95 0-0%) (p < 0.05). Low PAPP-A serum levels in the first trimester of pregnancy are associated with short stature in offspring and de-novo development of maternal diabetes mellitus in later life.

First-trimester screening for trisomies in pregnancies with vanishing twin

OBJECTIVES

To examine multiples of the median (MoM) values of serum free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in a large series of pregnancies with a vanishing twin, determine the association of these values with the interval between embryonic death and blood sampling, and develop a model that would allow incorporation of these metabolites in first-trimester combined screening for trisomy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study comparing maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A levels at 11-13 weeks' gestation in 528 dichorionic pregnancies with a vanishing twin, including 194 (36.7%) with an empty gestational sac and 334 (63.3%) with a dead embryo, with those in 5280 normal singleton pregnancies matched for method of conception and date of examination. In vanishing-twin pregnancies with a dead embryo, marker levels were examined in relation to the estimated time between embryonic death and maternal blood sampling.

RESULTS

First, in pregnancies with a vanishing twin, median free β-hCG MoM was not significantly different from that in normal singleton pregnancies (1.000; 95% CI, 0.985-1.016 vs 0.995; 95% CI, 0.948-1.044; P = 0.849). Second, PAPP-A MoM was higher in vanishing-twin pregnancies than in normal singleton pregnancies (1.000; 95% CI, 0.985-1.015), both in the group with an empty gestational sac (1.165; 95% CI, 1.080-1.256; P = 0.0001) and in that with a dead embryo (1.175; 95% CI, 1.105-1.249; P < 0.0001). Third, in vanishing-twin pregnancies with a dead embryo, PAPP-A MoM was related inversely to the interval between estimated gestational age at embryonic demise and blood sampling (P < 0.0001). Fourth, in first-trimester screening for trisomy 21 in singleton pregnancies, the estimated detection rate, at a 5% false-positive rate, was 82% in screening by a combination of maternal age and fetal nuchal translucency thickness, and this increased to 86% with the addition of serum free β-hCG and to 91% with the addition of serum PAPP-A. Fifth, similar performance of screening can be achieved in pregnancies with a vanishing twin, provided the appropriate adjustments are made to the level of PAPP-A for the interval between estimated gestational age at embryonic demise and blood sampling.

CONCLUSIONS

First-trimester screening for trisomy in pregnancies with a vanishing twin should rely on a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness and serum free β-hCG, as in singleton pregnancy, without the use of serum PAPP-A. Alternatively, PAPP-A can be included but only after appropriate adjustment for the interval between estimated gestational age at fetal demise and blood sampling. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Netazepide Inhibits Expression of Pappalysin 2 in Type 1 Gastric Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with autoimmune atrophic gastritis and achlorhydria, hypergastrinemia is associated with the development of type 1 gastric neuroendocrine tumors (gNETs). Twelve months of treatment with netazepide (YF476), an antagonist of the cholecystokinin B receptor (CCKBR or CCK2R), eradicated some type 1 gNETs in patients. We investigated the mechanisms by which netazepide induced gNET regression using gene expression profiling.

METHODS

We obtained serum samples and gastric corpus biopsy specimens from 8 patients with hypergastrinemia and type 1 gNETs enrolled in a phase 2 trial of netazepide. Control samples were obtained from 10 patients without gastric cancer. We used amplified and biotinylated sense-strand DNA targets from total RNA and Affymetrix (Thermofisher Scientific, UK) Human Gene 2.0 ST microarrays to identify differentially expressed genes in stomach tissues from patients with type 1 gNETs before, during, and after netazepide treatment. Findings were validated in a human AGSGR gastric adenocarcinoma cell line that stably expresses human CCK2R, primary mouse gastroids, transgenic hypergastrinemic INS-GAS mice, and patient samples.

RESULTS

Levels of pappalysin 2 (PAPPA2) messenger RNA were reduced significantly in gNET tissues from patients receiving netazepide therapy compared with tissues collected before therapy. PAPPA2 is a metalloproteinase that increases the bioavailability of insulin-like growth factor (IGF) by cleaving IGF binding proteins (IGFBPs). PAPPA2 expression was increased in the gastric corpus of patients with type 1 gNETs, and immunohistochemistry showed localization in the same vicinity as CCK2R-expressing enterochromaffin-like cells. Up-regulation of PAPPA2 also was found in the stomachs of INS-GAS mice. Gastrin increased PAPPA2 expression with time and in a dose-dependent manner in gastric AGSGR cells and mouse gastroids by activating CCK2R. Knockdown of PAPPA2 in AGSGR cells with small interfering RNAs significantly decreased their migratory response and tissue remodeling in response to gastrin. Gastrin altered the expression and cleavage of IGFBP3 and IGFBP5.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of human gNETS and mice, we found that gastrin up-regulates the expression of gastric PAPPA2. Increased PAPPA2 alters IGF bioavailability, cell migration, and tissue remodeling, which are involved in type 1 gNET development. These effects are inhibited by netazepide.

Can Variable Plasma Volume Alterations Affect the Efficiency of the First Trimester Screening Test?

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of plasma volume alteration determined by hematocrit on biochemical parameters of the first trimester screening test.

METHODS

Enrolled in this study were 1,424 pregnant women in their first trimester who underwent a first trimester screening test. Fetal Nuchal Trancluciency measurement was obtained by ultrasonographic evaluation. Blood samples were taken for complete blood count, serum free β-HCG, and PAPP-A between 11 and 14 weeks of gestation. The effect of plasma volume alteration on the screening test was evaluated. Mean corpuscular volume was used to rule out possible iron deficiency anemia.

RESULTS

There were 59 women with combined risk > 1/270. Of these 59 women, there were 21 false positive results (1.5%). Serum Htc significantly predicted the false positive cases (AUC: 0.839, p < 0.001). The optimal cutoff value was obtained at a value of 30.2% with 85% sensitivity and 75% specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the degree of plasma alterations may affect the serum levels of the biochemical components of the first trimester screening test for aneuploidy, thereby leading to false positive test results.

Value of Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A for Predicting Adverse Pregnancy Outcome

BACKGROUND

It is suggested that pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) levels below the fifth percentile or less than 0.4 multiples of the median (MoMs) during the first trimester are closely associated with higher risk for neonatal abnormalities. We assessed the value of PAPP-A within the first trimester for predicting pregnancy outcome.

METHODS

In a historical cohort study, we assessed 8460 consecutive pregnant women recruited for chromosomal abnormalities screening within the first trimester at Fertility Infertility and Perinatology Research Center, in Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences between April 2014 and April 2015. The women were categorized into two groups: pregnant women with PAPP-A levels below 0.4 multiples of MOM (n = 237) and those with higher levels of PAPP-A (n = 237).

RESULTS

The median value of MOM PAPP-A was 0.82 ± 0.78, with 237 women having MOM PAPP-A lower than 0.4. Compared to women with MOM PAPP-A higher than 0.4, those with lower MOM PAPP-A had higher mean age, lower gestational age and lower birth weight. The prevalence of small for gestational age (SGA) was higher in women with MOM PAPP-A <0.4 compared to others. According to the ROC curve analysis, MOM PAPP-A <0.4 had a high value for predicting SGA. Best cutoff value for MOM PAPP-A to predict SGA was shown to be 0.25, yielding a sensitivity of 84.7% and a specificity of 68.6.

CONCLUSION

Measuring the serum level of MOM PAPP-A during the first trimester is a valuable marker for predicting adverse outcomes of pregnancy such as SGA.

First Trimester Combined Test (FTCT) as a Predictor of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Background—The first trimester combined test (FTCT) is an effective screening tool to estimate the risk of fetal aneuploidy. It is obtained by the combination of maternal age, ultrasound fetal nuchal translucency (NT) measurement, and the maternal serum markers free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A). However, conflicting data have been reported about the association of FTCT, β-hCG, or PAPP-A with the subsequent diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Research design and methods—2410 consecutive singleton pregnant women were retrospectively enrolled in Calabria, Southern Italy. All participants underwent examinations for FTCT at 11–13 weeks (plus 6 days) of gestation, and screening for GDM at 16–18 and/or 24–28 weeks of gestation, in accordance with current Italian guidelines and the International Association Diabetes Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) glycemic cut-offs. Data were examined by univariate and logistic regression analyses. Results—1814 (75.3%) pregnant women were normal glucose tolerant, while 596 (24.7%) were diagnosed with GDM. Spearman univariate analysis demonstrated a correlation between FTCT values and subsequent GDM diagnosis (ρ = 0.048, p = 0.018). The logistic regression analysis showed that women with a FTCT <1:10000 had a major GDM risk (p = 0.016), similar to women with a PAPP-A <1 multiple of the expected normal median (MoM, p = 0.014). Conversely, women with β-hCG ≥2.0 MoM had a reduced risk of GDM (p = 0.014). Conclusions—Our findings indicate that GDM susceptibility increases with fetal aneuploidy risk, and that FTCT and its related maternal serum parameters can be used as early predictors of GDM.

First-Trimester Biochemical Screening For Low Birth Weight: Clinical Effectiveness of Low Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A and High Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight (LBW) can be an important adverse neonatal outcome in terms of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to investigate the screening effectiveness of first-trimester low pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and high serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and the combination of both markers for predicting LBW.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of women undergoing first-trimester assessment in our center. We considered low PAPP-A as < 5th percentile for gestational age. High serum TSH was defined as > 2.5 mU/L, according to the American Thyroid Association (ATA) recommendation. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate screening performance. Multivariate logistic regression was accomplished to calculate adjusted risks to identify the association between both parameters with LBW.

RESULTS

Overall, 4,396 women met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 277 (6.3%) delivered a LBW baby. The use of either low PAPP-A or high TSH yielded the highest sensitivity (21.1%) with a specificity of 85.7%. Combining both markers showed an increased association (adjusted OR 9.07 [95% CI 3.34 - 24.6]) at the expense of a significant reduction in sensitivity (7.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

First-trimester low PAPP-A is associated with LBW at delivery. Neither of these biomarkers or their combination are acceptable predictors to be clinically useful tools for LBW.

Cardiac Biomarkers and Cardiovascular Outcome in Children with Chronic Kidney Disease

INTRODUCTION

Myocardial dysfunction is a leading cause of mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) children specially those on regular hemodialysis. Cardiac biomarkers play a key role for early detection of myocardial injury. We aim to clarify the prognostic role of circulating cardiac biomarkers, heart type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in CKD children on regular hemodialysis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a prospective case control study over 2 years duration. Initial assessment included 20 CKD children on regular hemodialysis and 20 age- and sex- matched healthy children as a control group. Serum level of H-FABP and PAPP-A were measured and correlated to conventional echocardiographic findings and cardiovascular outcome in CKD children.

RESULTS

60% of CKD children developed cardiovascular comorbidities. H-FABP and PAPP-A levels were significantly elevated especially in those with worse cardiovascular outcome. H-FABP and PASP-A levels were positively correlated with LVM index. At cut off point > 17.65 pg/mL, H-FABP has 91% sensitivity and 87.5% specificity for prediction of cardiac morbidity. Elevated H-FABP (OR = 33; CI 95%: 2.455 - 443.591), LVM indexed to body surface area (OR = 21; CI 95%: 1.777 - 248.103), LVM indexed to lean body mass (OR = 15; CI 95%: 1.652 -136.172), elevated PAPP-A (OR = 9.8; CI 95%: 0.898 - 106.845) and Hypertension (OR = 8.333; CI 95%: 1.034 - 67.142) are the main risk factors for cardiac morbidities in CKD children.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated H-FABP and PAPP-A are valuable prognostic markers for cardiovascular outcome in CKD children on regular hemodialysis.

Serum Levels of Activins, Follistatins, and Growth Factors in Neoplasms of the Breast: A Case-Control Study

CONTEXT

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women. Noninvasive biomarkers are needed for its early diagnosis and/or prognosis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this case-control study was the comparison of serum activins, follistatins, and members of the IGF family levels in women with benign vs malignant breast neoplasms vs apparently healthy controls.

DESIGN AND PATIENTS

Women with breast benign (n = 100) or malignant tumors (n = 145) and disease-free controls (n = 100) were recruited. Women with breast cancer were subsequently subdivided into recently diagnosed/treatment-naive (n = 112) and chemotherapy-treated (n = 33). Anthropometric, demographic, biochemical, and histological data were recorded.

SETTING

A breast cancer clinic in Thessaloniki, Greece.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serum levels of activin A, activin B, follistatin, follistatin-like (FSTL)-3, total IGF-1, total and intact insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP)-4 and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) were measured with highly specific ELISA kits.

RESULTS

In adjusted comparisons, substantial differences in FSTL-3, total and intact IGFBP-4, PAPP-A, and total IGF-1 were observed between groups. In logistic regression analysis, primarily total IGFBP-4 levels were independently associated with the overall presence of breast malignancy. FSTL-3 was the only variable that could distinguish between a benign vs malignant breast mass. In linear regression analysis, FSTL-3 was independently associated with tumor size.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that members of the IGF-1/IGFBP-4/PAPP-A axis and FSTL-3 may serve as surrogate markers in breast cancer. Future mechanistic and longitudinal studies and/or clinical trials are needed to explore the efficacy of these molecules as noninvasive biomarkers and their possible therapeutic potential in breast cancer.

Trisomy 21 screening based on first and second trimester in a Taiwanese population

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the performance of first- and second-trimester screening tests for detecting fetal trisomy 21 in a Taiwanese population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multicenter study 29,137 cases enrolled the chromosomal abnormality screening between 2013 and 2014 two years period from Taipei city. There were 23,990 was done the first trimester screening using a combination of fetal nuchal translucency, maternal serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin, and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A between 11⁺⁰ and 13⁺⁶ weeks of gestation age. Second-trimester screening was done for 5149 cases using a double test (β-human chorionic gonadotropin and serum alpha fetoprotein) between 15 and 20 weeks of gestation. The cut-off risk for both is 1:270 or higher.

RESULTS

This multicenter study 29,137 cases that completed first- and second-trimester screening, and the outcome was available in 28,726 cases. The mean maternal age of the screen-positive group was 34.6 ± 4.2 years. The first-trimester had 891 cases screening positive with a detection rate of 97.5% for fetal trisomy 21, and false positive rate of 3.5%. In the second-trimester had 334 cases screening positive, the detection rate and false positive rate were 33.3% and 6.4% for trisomy 21, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The first-trimester screening had higher performance with a lower false positive rate than the second-trimester screening. First-trimester screening could reduce the rate of unnecessary invasive testing for all pregnant women.

Maternal Serum PLGF, PAPPA, β-hCG and AFP Levels in Early Second Trimester as Predictors of Preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

Identifying women at risk of preeclampsia (PE) by maternal serum screening is conducive to prompt gestational management and thereby improve both maternal and perinatal outcomes. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the association between the concentrations of maternal serum placental growth factor (PLGF), pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPPA), free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), and αFetoprotein (AFP) and the development of preeclampsia early in the second trimester.

METHODS

Forty pregnant women subsequently developed mild PE, 21 pregnant women subsequently developed severe PE, and 61 cases of normotensive controls were included. Maternal serum concentrations of PLGF, PAPPA, β-hCG, and AFP were measured at 15 - 20 weeks of gestation.

RESULTS

Serum PLGF level was lower in women who subsequently developed PE than in normotensive controls. However, the significant difference was only found between the severe PE and control groups (p = 0.015). Serum PAPPA, β-hCG, and AFP levels were not significantly different between the PE and control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum PLGF level was lower in women who subsequently developed severe PE early in the second trimester, suggesting its role in prediction of PE.

Prenatal diagnostic testing and atypical chromosome abnormalities following combined first-trimester screening: implications for contingent models of non-invasive prenatal testing

OBJECTIVES

To investigate by means of a population-based analysis of a cohort of women who underwent combined first-trimester screening (CFTS), changes in uptake of invasive prenatal diagnosis according to risk of trisomy 21 (T21) on CFTS, and prevalence and methods for ascertainment of atypical chromosome abnormalities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using state-wide prenatal datasets from Victoria, Australia. A three-step approach was taken to analyze the data: (1) linkage of records between serum screening and diagnostic results; (2) comparison of rates of diagnostic testing according to CFTS T21 risk result category in a 2014-2015 cohort with those of a historical 2002-2004 cohort; (3) detailed analysis of atypical abnormalities in the 2014-2015 group according to CFTS T21 risk result, individual serum analyte level and other indications for invasive diagnostic testing.

RESULTS

In 2014-2015, there were 100 418 CFTS results issued for 146 776 births (68.4%). The overall prevalence of atypical chromosome abnormalities in the entire CFTS cohort was 0.10% and was highest in those with CFTS T21 risk > 1 in 10 (4.6%), or serum analyte levels < 0.2 multiples of the median (MoM) (6.9% for pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and 5.2% for beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG)). Almost half (49.2%) of women with PAPP-A < 0.2 MoM had a risk for T21 on CFTS of less than 1 in 100. The majority (55%) of atypical abnormalities occurred in women with CFTS T21 risk below 1 in 300, and were most commonly detected on ultrasound examination (47.1%).

CONCLUSION

Concerns regarding missed diagnoses of atypical chromosome abnormalities when non-invasive prenatal testing is offered after a result of high risk on CFTS can be mitigated if invasive diagnostic testing is offered to those women with CFTS T21 risk of > 1 in 100, serum PAPP-A or β-hCG < 0.2 MoM, or ultrasound-detected abnormality. This has implications for contingent models of screening. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First-trimester screening for early and late preeclampsia using maternal characteristics, biomarkers, and estimated placental volume

BACKGROUND

Preeclampsia is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. First-trimester screening has been shown to be effective in selecting patients at an increased risk for preeclampsia in some studies.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate the feasibility of screening for preeclampsia in the first trimester based on maternal characteristics, medical history, biomarkers, and placental volume.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a prospective observational nonintervention cohort study in an unselected US population. Patients who presented for an ultrasound examination between 11-13+6 weeks' gestation were included. The following parameters were assessed and were used to calculate the risk of preeclampsia: maternal characteristics (demographic, anthropometric, and medical history), maternal biomarkers (mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, placental growth factor, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein), and estimated placental volume. After delivery, medical records were searched for the diagnosis of preeclampsia. Detection rates for early-onset preeclampsia (<34 weeks' gestation) and later-onset preeclampsia (≥34 weeks' gestation) for 5% and 10% false-positive rates using various combinations of markers were calculated.

RESULTS

We screened 1288 patients of whom 1068 (82.99%) were available for analysis. In all, 46 (4.3%) developed preeclampsia, with 13 (1.22%) having early-onset preeclampsia and 33 (3.09%) having late-onset preeclampsia. Using maternal characteristics, serum biomarkers, and uterine artery pulsatility index, the detection rate of early-onset preeclampsia for either 5% or 10% false-positive rate was 85%. With the same protocol, the detection rates for preeclampsia with delivery <37 weeks were 52% and 60% for 5% and 10% false-positive rates, respectively. Based on maternal characteristics, the detection rates for late-onset preeclampsia were 15% and 48% for 5% and 10%, while for preeclampsia at ≥37 weeks' gestation the detection rates were 24% and 43%, respectively. The detection rates for late-onset preeclampsia and preeclampsia with delivery at >37 weeks' gestation were not improved by the addition of biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Screening for preeclampsia at 11-13+6 weeks' gestation using maternal characteristics and biomarkers is associated with a high detection rate for a low false-positive rate. Screening for late-onset preeclampsia yields a much poorer performance. In this study the utility of estimated placental volume and mean arterial pressure was limited but larger studies are needed to ultimately determine the effectiveness of these markers.

Long term influence of regular intake of high dose n-3 fatty acids on CD40-ligand, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and matrix metalloproteinase-9 following acute myocardial infarction

Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9), both zinc-binding endopeptidases, are abundantly expressed in ruptured and eroded plaques in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS).The adhesion molecule CD-40 ligand (CD40L), expressed on activated platelets and T-lymphocytes, can activate metalloproteinases and thereby promote plaque-rupture. N-3 fatty acids, through their anti-inflammatory and anti-thrombotic properties,might reduce the levels of these proatherosclerotic markers and thereby the development of ACS. 300 patients were randomized on day4 to 6 following an acute myocardial infarction (MI) to receive either 4g of n-3 fatty acids or a similar daily dose of corn oil for at least one year.We compared levels of PAPP-A, MMP-9 and sCD-40 L at baseline and 12 months in each group, and also looked for inter-group changes. In the omega-3 group, the median level of PAPP-A rose from 0.47 mU/l to 0.56 mU/l (p < 0.001). In the same group, sCD-40 L decreased froma mean baseline value of 5.19 ng/ml to 2.45 ng/ml (p < 0.001) and MMP-9 decreased nonsignificantly from 360.50 ng/ml to 308.00 ng/ml. Corresponding values for the corn oil group were 0.54 mU/l to 0.59 mU/l for PAPP-A (p= 0.007), 5.27 ng/ml to 2.84 ng/ml for sCD-40 L (p< 0.001) and 430.00 ng/ml to 324.00 ng/ml for MMP-9 (p=ns), respectively. In conclusion; both interventions resulted in a significant rise in PAPP-A, a significant decrease in sCD40L and a non-significant decrease in MMP-9 after 12 months of treatment in MI survivors. No inter-group differences were noted.

Competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy according to maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model for screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) in twin pregnancies based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a screening study in twin pregnancies at 11-13 weeks' gestation. Bayes theorem was used to combine the a-priori risk from maternal factors with various combinations of uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF) multiples of the median (MoM) values. The performance of screening for PE requiring delivery at < 32, < 37 and < 42 weeks' gestation was estimated in 1100 twin pregnancies and 35 948 singleton pregnancies with complete data on UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and PAPP-A.

RESULTS

In twin pregnancies that developed PE, the values of MAP and UtA-PI were increased and the values of PlGF and PAPP-A were decreased. The distributions of log₁₀ MoM values of biomarkers with gestational age at delivery were similar to those that were previously reported in singleton pregnancies and it was therefore assumed that the same model could be used for both singleton and twin pregnancies. The performance of screening for PE by maternal factors was improved by the addition of MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF; there was no further improvement with the addition of PAPP-A. In a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies, combined screening by maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF and risk cut-off of 1 in 75 for PE at < 37 weeks, the detection rate of PE at < 32, < 37 and < 42 weeks in singleton pregnancies was 91%, 77% and 57%, respectively, at a screen-positive rate (SPR) of 13%; the respective rates for twin pregnancies were 100%, 99% and 97%, at a SPR of 75%.

CONCLUSION

First-trimester combined screening for PE in singleton pregnancies can be adapted for screening in twins, leading to detection of nearly all affected cases but at a high SPR. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physiological parameters regulating circulating levels of the IGFBP-4/Stanniocalcin-2/PAPP-A axis

BACKGROUND

Insulin Growth Factor Binding Protein 4 (IGFBP-4), Stanniocalcin-2 (STC-2) and Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A) have a well-documented involvement in several physiological functions in humans but predictors of their circulating levels remain largely unknown. We aimed to identify anthropometric and biochemical parameters associated with circulating levels of IGFBP-4/STC-2/PAPP-A axis (ISPa) cross-sectionally and to study their day-night variation and their regulation in response to mixed meal and exercise.

METHODS

One hundred twenty two healthy individuals were evaluated cross-sectionally. Subgroups were subjected to standardized mixed meal ingestion in increasing quantities of 125mL or 250mL, or aerobic exercise for 30min, or day-night rhythm study. Main outcome measurements were circulating IGFBP-4 (total and intact), STC-2 and PAPP-A levels.

RESULTS

In multivariate models, the main predictors of serum total IGFBP-4 were PAPP-A and female gender. Intact IGFBP-4 was positively associated with serum creatinine. Height was inversely and female gender and % of total body fat were positively correlated with STC-2. PAPP-A decreased after ingesting both the 125mL (p=0.03) and 250mL quantities (p=0.001), while total IGFBP-4 was reduced after the 250mL quantity (p=0.001). Exercise increased STC-2 and PAPP-A levels (p<0.001 for both). Intact, and to a lesser extent total, IGFBP-4 displayed a cortisol-like day/night variation.

CONCLUSIONS

We report for the first time anthropometric and physiological modulators of ISPa serum levels in healthy humans.

External Quality Assessment of First-Trimester Prenatal Biochemical Screening in China

BACKGROUND

Free β subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) are two important biomarkers in first-trimester prenatal screening. This study intended to reflect their analytical performance in clinical laboratories and main platforms of the 2015 External Quality Assessment (EQA) scheme for the first-trimester biochemical screening in China.

METHODS

Ten lyophilized EQA samples, divided into two sets and analyzed in two cycles 20151 and 20152, were distributed to each participant in 2015. Satisfactory performance was defined as scores more than 80 of acceptable results within the evaluation criterion of ± 30%. The robust coefficient of variability (CV) of each sample was calculated by analytes and mainstream platforms. The chi-square (2) test and the Mann-Whitney test were respectively used to compare the acceptable performance and the robust CV between two analytes, as well as two mainstream platforms.

RESULTS

A total of 142 laboratories were enrolled in this EQA scheme. For free β-hCG and PAPP-A, the number of effective results were 1330 and 1355, respectively, and the overall acceptable rates of results were 95.11% and 92.32%, respectively. For cycle 20151 and 20152, the acceptable rates were respectively 92.59% and 96.19% for free β-hCG and 89.78% and 94.78% for PAPP-A. The 2 test showed acceptable performance differed significantly between the two analytes, as well as two platforms for PAPP-A. Significant difference of the robust CV in different analytes and platforms was demonstrated by Mann-Whitney test.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater than 92% of results were acceptable. However, continuous improvement and further research of this EQA scheme is in process.

First trimester ultrasound tests alone or in combination with first trimester serum tests for Down's syndrome screening

BACKGROUND

Down's syndrome occurs when a person has three, rather than two copies of chromosome 21; or the specific area of chromosome 21 implicated in causing Down's syndrome. It is the commonest congenital cause of mental disability and also leads to numerous metabolic and structural problems. It can be life-threatening, or lead to considerable ill health, although some individuals have only mild problems and can lead relatively normal lives. Having a baby with Down's syndrome is likely to have a significant impact on family life.Non-invasive screening based on biochemical analysis of maternal serum or urine, or fetal ultrasound measurements, allows estimates of the risk of a pregnancy being affected and provides information to guide decisions about definitive testing.Before agreeing to screening tests, parents need to be fully informed about the risks, benefits and possible consequences of such a test. This includes subsequent choices for further tests they may face, and the implications of both false positive and false negative screening tests (i.e. invasive diagnostic testing, and the possibility that a miscarried fetus may be chromosomally normal). The decisions that may be faced by expectant parents inevitably engender a high level of anxiety at all stages of the screening process, and the outcomes of screening can be associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity. No screening test can predict the severity of problems a person with Down's syndrome will have.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and compare the accuracy of first trimester ultrasound markers alone, and in combination with first trimester serum tests for the detection of Down's syndrome.

SEARCH METHODS

We carried out extensive literature searches including MEDLINE (1980 to 25 August 2011), Embase (1980 to 25 August 2011), BIOSIS via EDINA (1985 to 25 August 2011), CINAHL via OVID (1982 to 25 August 2011), and The Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (the Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 7). We checked reference lists and published review articles for additional potentially relevant studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating tests of first trimester ultrasound screening, alone or in combination with first trimester serum tests (up to 14 weeks' gestation) for Down's syndrome, compared with a reference standard, either chromosomal verification or macroscopic postnatal inspection.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were extracted as test positive/test negative results for Down's and non-Down's pregnancies allowing estimation of detection rates (sensitivity) and false positive rates (1-specificity). We performed quality assessment according to QUADAS criteria. We used hierarchical summary ROC meta-analytical methods to analyse test performance and compare test accuracy. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. We investigated the impact of maternal age on test performance in subgroup analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 126 studies (152 publications) involving 1,604,040 fetuses (including 8454 Down's syndrome cases). Studies were generally good quality, although differential verification was common with invasive testing of only high-risk pregnancies. Sixty test combinations were evaluated formed from combinations of 11 different ultrasound markers (nuchal translucency (NT), nasal bone, ductus venosus Doppler, maxillary bone length, fetal heart rate, aberrant right subclavian artery, frontomaxillary facial angle, presence of mitral gap, tricuspid regurgitation, tricuspid blood flow and iliac angle 90 degrees); 12 serum tests (inhibin A, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (ßhCG), total hCG, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), disintegrin and metalloprotease 12 (ADAM 12), placental growth factor (PlGF), placental growth hormone (PGH), invasive trophoblast antigen (ITA) (synonymous with hyperglycosylated hCG), growth hormone binding protein (GHBP) and placental protein 13 (PP13)); and maternal age. The most frequently evaluated serum markers in combination with ultrasound markers were PAPP-A and free ßhCG.Comparisons of the 10 most frequently evaluated test strategies showed that a combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy significantly outperformed ultrasound markers alone (with or without maternal age) except nasal bone, detecting about nine out of every 10 Down's syndrome pregnancies at a 5% false positive rate (FPR). In both direct and indirect comparisons, the combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy showed superior diagnostic accuracy to an NT and maternal age test strategy (P < 0.0001). Based on the indirect comparison of all available studies for the two tests, the sensitivity (95% confidence interval) estimated at a 5% FPR for the combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy (69 studies; 1,173,853 fetuses including 6010 with Down's syndrome) was 87% (86 to 89) and for the NT and maternal age test strategy (50 studies; 530,874 fetuses including 2701 Down's syndrome pregnancies) was 71% (66 to 75). Combinations of NT with other ultrasound markers, PAPP-A and free ßhCG were evaluated in one or two studies and showed sensitivities of more than 90% and specificities of more than 95%.High-risk populations (defined before screening was done, mainly due to advanced maternal age of 35 years or more, or previous pregnancies affected with Down's syndrome) showed lower detection rates compared to routine screening populations at a 5% FPR. Women who miscarried in the over 35 group were more likely to have been offered an invasive test to verify a negative screening results, whereas those under 35 were usually not offered invasive testing for a negative screening result. Pregnancy loss in women under 35 therefore leads to under-ascertainment of screening results, potentially missing a proportion of affected pregnancies and affecting test sensitivity. Conversely, for the NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy, detection rates and false positive rates increased with maternal age in the five studies that provided data separately for the subset of women aged 35 years or more.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Test strategies that combine ultrasound markers with serum markers, especially PAPP-A and free ßhCG, and maternal age were significantly better than those involving only ultrasound markers (with or without maternal age) except nasal bone. They detect about nine out of 10 Down's affected pregnancies for a fixed 5% FPR. Although the absence of nasal bone appeared to have a high diagnostic accuracy, only five out of 10 affected Down's pregnancies were detected at a 1% FPR.

First and second trimester serum tests with and without first trimester ultrasound tests for Down's syndrome screening

BACKGROUND

Down's syndrome occurs when a person has three copies of chromosome 21 (or the specific area of chromosome 21 implicated in causing Down's syndrome) rather than two. It is the commonest congenital cause of mental disability. Non-invasive screening based on biochemical analysis of maternal serum or urine, or fetal ultrasound measurements, allows estimates of the risk of a pregnancy being affected and provides information to guide decisions about definitive testing.  Before agreeing to screening tests, parents need to be fully informed about the risks, benefits and possible consequences of such a test. This includes subsequent choices for further tests they may face, and the implications of both false positive (i.e. invasive diagnostic testing, and the possibility that a miscarried fetus may be chromosomally normal) and false negative screening tests (i.e. a fetus with Down's syndrome will be missed). The decisions that may be faced by expectant parents inevitably engender a high level of anxiety at all stages of the screening process, and the outcomes of screening can be associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity. No screening test can predict the severity of problems a person with Down's syndrome will have.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and compare the accuracy of first and second trimester serum markers with and without first trimester ultrasound markers for the detection of Down's syndrome in the antenatal period, as combinations of markers.

SEARCH METHODS

We conducted a sensitive and comprehensive literature search of MEDLINE (1980 to 25 August 2011), Embase (1980 to 25 August 2011), BIOSIS via EDINA (1985 to 25 August 2011), CINAHL via OVID (1982 to 25 August 2011), the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (the Cochrane Library 25 August 2011), MEDION (25 August 2011), the Database of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses in Laboratory Medicine (25 August 2011), the National Research Register (Archived 2007), and Health Services Research Projects in Progress database (25 August 2011). We did not apply a diagnostic test search filter. We did forward citation searching in ISI citation indices, Google Scholar and PubMed 'related articles'. We also searched reference lists of retrieved articles SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies evaluating tests of combining first and second trimester maternal serum markers in women up to 24 weeks of gestation for Down's syndrome, with or without first trimester ultrasound markers, compared with a reference standard, either chromosomal verification or macroscopic postnatal inspection.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were extracted as test positive/test negative results for Down's and non-Down's pregnancies allowing estimation of detection rates (sensitivity) and false positive rates (1-specificity). We performed quality assessment according to QUADAS criteria. We used hierarchical summary ROC meta-analytical methods to analyse test performance and compare test accuracy. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. We investigated the impact of maternal age on test performance in subgroup analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-two studies (reported in 25 publications) involving 228,615 pregnancies (including 1067 with Down's syndrome) were included. Studies were generally high quality, although differential verification was common with invasive testing of only high risk pregnancies. Ten studies made direct comparisons between tests. Thirty-two different test combinations were evaluated formed from combinations of eight different tests and maternal age; first trimester nuchal translucency (NT) and the serum markers AFP, uE3, total hCG, free βhCG, Inhibin A, PAPP-A and ADAM 12. We looked at tests combining first and second trimester markers with or without ultrasound as complete tests, and we also examined stepwise and contingent strategies.Meta-analysis of the six most frequently evaluated test combinations showed that a test strategy involving maternal age and a combination of first trimester NT and PAPP-A, and second trimester total hCG, uE3, AFP and Inhibin A significantly outperformed other test combinations that involved only one serum marker or NT in the first trimester, detecting about nine out of every 10 Down's syndrome pregnancies at a 5% false positive rate. However, the evidence was limited in terms of the number of studies evaluating this strategy, and we therefore cannot recommend one single screening strategy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Tests involving first trimester ultrasound with first and second trimester serum markers in combination with maternal age are significantly better than those without ultrasound, or those evaluating first trimester ultrasound in combination with second trimester serum markers, without first trimester serum markers. We cannot make recommendations about a specific strategy on the basis of the small number of studies available.