HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

Single cell analysis of lymph node tissue from HIV-1 infected patients reveals that the majority of CD4+ T-cells contain one HIV-1 DNA molecule

Genetic recombination contributes to the diversity of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1). Productive HIV-1 recombination is, however, dependent on both the number of HIV-1 genomes per infected cell and the genetic relationship between these viral genomes. A detailed analysis of the number of proviruses and their genetic relationship in infected cells isolated from peripheral blood and tissue compartments is therefore important for understanding HIV-1 recombination, genetic diversity and the dynamics of HIV-1 infection. To address these issues, we used a previously developed single-cell sequencing technique to quantify and genetically characterize individual HIV-1 DNA molecules from single cells in lymph node tissue and peripheral blood. Analysis of memory and naïve CD4(+) T cells from paired lymph node and peripheral blood samples from five untreated chronically infected patients revealed that the majority of these HIV-1-infected cells (>90%) contain only one copy of HIV-1 DNA, implying a limited potential for productive recombination in virus produced by these cells in these two compartments. Phylogenetic analysis revealed genetic similarity of HIV-1 DNA in memory and naïve CD4(+) T-cells from lymph node, peripheral blood and HIV-1 RNA from plasma, implying exchange of virus and/or infected cells between these compartments in untreated chronic infection.

Improving Bayesian population dynamics inference: a coalescent-based model for multiple loci

Effective population size is fundamental in population genetics and characterizes genetic diversity. To infer past population dynamics from molecular sequence data, coalescent-based models have been developed for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size over time. Among the most successful is a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model for a single gene locus. Here, we present a generalization of the GMRF model that allows for the analysis of multilocus sequence data. Using simulated data, we demonstrate the improved performance of our method to recover true population trajectories and the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA). We analyze a multilocus alignment of HIV-1 CRF02_AG gene sequences sampled from Cameroon. Our results are consistent with HIV prevalence data and uncover some aspects of the population history that go undetected in Bayesian parametric estimation. Finally, we recover an older and more reconcilable TMRCA for a classic ancient DNA data set.

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon

Evolutionary analyses have revealed an origin of pandemic HIV-1 group M in the Congo River basin in the first part of the XX century, but the patterns of historical viral spread in or around its epicentre remain largely unexplored. Here, we combine epidemiologic and molecular sequence data to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the CRF02_AG clade. By explicitly integrating prevalence counts and genetic population size estimates we date the epidemic emergence of CRF02_AG at 1973.1 (1972.1, 1975.3, 95% CI). To infer the phylogeographic signature of this clade at a regional scale, we analyze pol and env time-stamped sequence data from 10 countries using a Bayesian phylogeographic approach based on an asymmetric discretized diffusion model. Our data confirms a spatial origin of CRF02_AG in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and suggests that viral dissemination to Cameroon occurred at an early stage of the evolutionary history of CRF02_AG. We find considerable support for epidemiological linkage between neighbour countries. Compilation of ethnographic data suggested that well-supported viral migration did not reflect sustained human migratory flows. Finally, using sequence data from 15 locations in Cameroon, we use relaxed random walk models to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of CRF02_AG at a finer geographical detail. Phylogeographic dispersal in continuous space reveals that at least two distinct CRF02_AG lineages are circulating in overlapping regions that are evolving at different evolutionary and diffusion rates. In conclusion, by combining molecular and epidemiological data, our results provide a time scale for CRF02_AG, early 70s, place its spatial root in the DRC within the putative root of group-M diversity and propose a scenario of chance-exportation events for the spatiotemporal patterns of a successful HIV-1 lineage both at a regional and country-scale.

Phylogeographical footprint of colonial history in the global dispersal of human immunodeficiency virus type 2 group A

Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) emerged in West Africa and has spread further to countries that share socio-historical ties with this region. However, viral origins and dispersal patterns at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we adopt a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the spatial dynamics of HIV-2 group A (HIV-2A) using a collection of 320 partial pol and 248 partial env sequences sampled throughout 19 countries worldwide. We extend phylogenetic diffusion models that simultaneously draw information from multiple loci to estimate location states throughout distinct phylogenies and explicitly attempt to incorporate human migratory fluxes. Our study highlights that Guinea-Bissau, together with Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, have acted as the main viral sources in the early stages of the epidemic. We show that convenience sampling can obfuscate the estimation of the spatial root of HIV-2A. We explicitly attempt to circumvent this by incorporating rate priors that reflect the ratio of human flow from and to West Africa. We recover four main routes of HIV-2A dispersal that are laid out along colonial ties: Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde to Portugal, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal to France. Within Europe, we find strong support for epidemiological linkage from Portugal to Luxembourg and to the UK. We demonstrate that probabilistic models can uncover global patterns of HIV-2A dispersal providing sampling bias is taken into account and we provide a scenario for the international spread of this virus.

Rooting human parechovirus evolution in time

BACKGROUND

The Picornaviridae family contains a number of important pathogenic viruses, among which the recently reclassified human parechoviruses (HPeVs). These viruses are widespread and can be grouped in several types. Understanding the evolutionary history of HPeV could answer questions such as how long the circulating lineages last shared a common ancestor and how the evolution of this viral species is shaped by its population dynamics. Using both strict and relaxed clock Bayesian phylogenetics we investigated 1) the substitutions rates of the structural P1 and capsid VP1 regions and 2) evolutionary timescale of currently circulating HPeV lineages.

RESULTS

Our estimates reveal that human parechoviruses exhibit high substitution rates for both structural P1 and capsid VP1 regions, respectively 2.21 x 10(-3) (0.48 - 4.21 x 10(-3)) and 2.79 x 10(-3) (2.05 - 3.66 x 10(-3)) substitutions per site per year. These are within the range estimated for other picornaviruses. By employing a constant population size coalescent prior, the date of the most recent common ancestor was estimated to be at around 1600 (1427-1733). In addition, by looking at the frequency of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions within the VP1 gene we show that purifying selection constitutes the dominating evolutionary force leading to strong amino acid conservation.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our estimates provide a timescale for the evolution of HPeVs and suggest that genetic diversity of current circulating HPeV types has arisen about 400 years ago.