Stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia derived from uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

There were two objectives of this study. First, to examine the value of uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) at 19-24 weeks' gestation in the prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE) and to compare the performance of screening between the use of, first, fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI, second, percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI adjusted for gestational age, third, a competing-risks model combining maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with UtA-PI, and, fourth, a competing-risks model combining maternal factors with UtA-PI and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Second, to stratify pregnancy care based on the estimated risk of PE at 19-24 weeks' gestation from UtA-PI and combinations of maternal factors with UtA-PI and MAP.

METHODS

This was a prospective, non-intervention study in women attending for an ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of the gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median (MoM) values of UtA-PI and MAP. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each risk category (very high risk, high risk, intermediate risk and low risk) with the intention of detecting about 80%, 85%, 90% and 95% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. We also examined the performance of screening by maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI and percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI adjusted for gestational age. Calibration for risks for PE < 36 weeks' gestation by the combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI MoM and MAP MoM was assessed by plotting the observed incidence of PE against the predicted incidence. Additionally, we developed reference ranges of transabdominal and transvaginal measurement of UtA-PI according to gestational age.

RESULTS

In the study population of 96 678 singleton pregnancies, there were 2866 (3.0%) that subsequently developed PE, including 467 (0.5%) that delivered at < 36 weeks' gestation. If the objective of screening was to identify about 90% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI MoM and MAP MoM, the proportion of the population stratified into very high-risk, high-risk, intermediate-risk and low-risk groups would be 2.4%, 3.9%, 17.8% and 75.9%, respectively; the respective values were 6.0%, 3.0%, 21.0% and 70.0% if screening was by maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, 5.7%, 7.5%, 49.8% and 37.0% if screening was by fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI and 6.9%, 5.2%, 49.0% and 38.9% if screening was by percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI. In the validation of the prediction model based on a combination of maternal factors and MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP, calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed incidence of PE.

CONCLUSIONS

All pregnant women should have screening for PE at 20 and 36 weeks' gestation. The findings at 20 weeks can be used to identify the subgroups that require additional monitoring and reassessment at 28 and 32 weeks. The performance of screening by a combination of maternal factors and MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP at 19-24 weeks for delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation is superior to that of screening by a combination of maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, by fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI or by percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal cardiac function at 19-23 weeks' gestation in prediction of pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVES

First, to examine the factors from maternal characteristics and medical history that affect maternal cardiovascular indices, and, second, to examine the potential value of maternal cardiovascular indices at 19-23 weeks' gestation, on their own and in combination with maternal factors and the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, assessment of maternal E/A ratio, E/e' ratio, myocardial performance index, global longitudinal systolic strain, left ventricular ejection fraction, peripheral vascular resistance, left ventricular cardiac output and left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The measurements of the eight maternal cardiac indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE and determine the detection rate, at a 10% false-positive rate, in screening by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE. In pregnancies that subsequently developed PE, there was evidence of altered cardiac geometry, impaired myocardial function and increased peripheral vascular resistance. All maternal cardiovascular indices were affected significantly by maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history known to be associated with an increased risk for subsequent development of PE. After adjustment for maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, the only cardiovascular index that was affected significantly by subsequent development of PE was peripheral vascular resistance. Peripheral vascular resistance multiples of the median (MoM) was correlated with MAP MoM, which is not surprising because blood pressure is involved in the estimation of both. There were weak correlations between several cardiovascular indices and MAP MoM, but none was correlated with MoM values of UtA-PI, PlGF or sFlt-1. The performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation or delivery with PE at any gestational age in screening by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history or combinations of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 was not improved by the addition of peripheral vascular resistance.

CONCLUSION

Assessment of maternal cardiovascular function provides information on the pathophysiology of PE but is not useful in the prediction of PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Relationship between ophthalmic artery Doppler and maternal cardiovascular function

OBJECTIVE

In mid-gestation, the finding of an increase in the ophthalmic artery second to first peak of systolic velocity ratio (PSV ratio) provides useful prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE). The objective of this study of an unselected population at 19-23 weeks' gestation was to gain a better understanding of the factors that influence ophthalmic artery Doppler by examining the possible association between the PSV ratio and maternal cardiovascular function.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries and assessment of maternal cardiovascular function. The following nine cardiovascular indices were examined: E/A ratio; E/e' ratio; myocardial performance index; global longitudinal systolic strain; left ventricular ejection fraction; peripheral vascular resistance; left ventricular cardiac output; left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area; and mean arterial pressure. The ophthalmic artery PSV ratio and the nine cardiovascular indices were converted to either log₁₀ multiples of the median (MoM) values or deviations from the median (deltas) values after adjustment for maternal characteristics and elements of medical history. Regression analysis was then used to examine the significance of the association between PSV ratio delta and MoM or delta values of each cardiovascular index in the total population and in the subgroup that developed PE.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE. In the total population, there were significant but weak associations between the PSV ratio and most of the cardiovascular indices, with r-values of < 0.1, except for mean arterial pressure with r = 0.178. In the subgroup that developed PE, a moderately strong association between the PSV ratio and left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area was noted (r = 0.308).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that Doppler assessment of PSV ratio in the ophthalmic artery provides information about peripheral vascular status. The increase in PSV ratio in women who develop PE is associated with increased afterload and an increase in left ventricular thickness. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with other biomarkers in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 35-37 weeks' gestation in combination with the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination for fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at any time and at < 3 weeks after assessment by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve and detection rate (DR) of delivery with PE, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by combinations of maternal factors with ophthalmic artery second to first peak of systolic velocity ratio (PSV ratio), MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1 were determined. The modeled performance of screening for PE was also estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 2287 pregnancies contained 60 (2.6%) that developed PE, including 19 (0.8%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment. The PSV ratio improved the prediction of PE with delivery at any stage after assessment provided by maternal factors alone (from 25.4% to 50.6%), maternal factors and MAP (54.3% to 62.7%), maternal factors, MAP and PlGF (68.3% to 70.8%) and maternal factors, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 (75.7% to 76.7%), at a FPR of 10%. The PSV ratio also improved the prediction of PE with delivery at < 3 weeks after assessment provided by maternal factors alone (from 31.0% to 69.4%), maternal factors and MAP (74.1% to 83.4%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (77.1% to 85.0%) and maternal factors, MAP and PlGF (84.8% to 88.6%). The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results. Screening by a combination of maternal factors with MAP and PSV ratio also detected 59.4% (95% CI, 58.6-82.5%) of cases of gestational hypertension with delivery at any stage after assessment, and 86.7% (95% CI, 82.4-100%) of those with delivery at < 3 weeks after assessment.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery Doppler could potentially improve the performance of screening for PE at 35-37 weeks, especially imminent PE with delivery within 3 weeks after assessment, but further studies are needed to validate this finding. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation: data from EVENTS trial

OBJECTIVES

First, to validate a previously developed model for screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by maternal characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancies; second, to compare the distributions of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and to develop new models based on these results; and, third, to examine the predictive performance of these models in screening for PE with delivery at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

Two datasets of prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation were used. The first dataset was from the EVENTS (Early vaginal progesterone for the preVention of spontaneous prEterm birth iN TwinS) trial and the second was from a previously reported study that examined the distributions of biomarkers in twin pregnancies. Maternal demographic characteristics and medical history from the EVENTS-trial dataset were used to assess the validity of risks from our previously developed model. The combined data from the first and second datasets were used to compare the distributional properties of log₁₀ multiples of the median (MoM) values of UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and PAPP-A in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and develop new models based on these results. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation. Screening performance was measured by detection rates (DR) and areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve.

RESULTS

The EVENTS-trial dataset comprised 1798 pregnancies, including 168 (9.3%) that developed PE. In the validation of the prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history, calibration plots demonstrated very good agreement between the predicted risks and the observed incidence of PE (calibration slope and intercept for PE < 32 weeks were 0.827 and 0.009, respectively, and for PE < 37 weeks they were 0.942 and -0.207, respectively). In the combined data, there were 3938 pregnancies, including 339 (8.6%) that developed PE and 253 (6.4%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. In twin pregnancies that delivered with PE, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF were, at earlier gestational ages, more discriminative than in singleton pregnancies and at later gestational ages they were less so. For PAPP-A, there was little difference between PE and unaffected pregnancies. The best performance of screening for PE was achieved by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF. In screening by maternal factors alone, the DR, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 30.6% for delivery with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and this increased to 86.4% when screening by the combined test; the respective values for PE < 37 weeks were 24.9% and 41.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

In the assessment of risk for PE in twin pregnancy, we can use the same prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history as reported previously, but in the calculation of posterior risks it is necessary to use the new distributions of log₁₀ MoM values of UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF according to gestational age at delivery with PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with other biomarkers in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 19-23 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 19-23 weeks' gestation on its own and in combination with the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination for fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. Waveforms were obtained from the ophthalmic arteries in sequence from the right eye, left eye and again from the right and then left eye. We recorded the average of the four measurements, two from each eye, for the following four indices: first peak of systolic velocity; second peak of systolic velocity; PI; and the ratio of the second to first peak of systolic velocity (PSV ratio). The measurements of the four indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks' gestation and to determine the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and detection rate (DR), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers. The modeled performance of screening for PE was also estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE, including 18 (0.6%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. The ophthalmic artery PSV ratio was significantly increased in PE pregnancies, and the PE effect depended on gestational age at delivery; the deviation from normal was greater for early than late PE. The second peak of systolic velocity was also increased in PE pregnancies, but the effect did not depend on gestational age at delivery. The other two ophthalmic artery indices of first peak of systolic velocity and PI were not significantly affected by PE. The PSV ratio improved the prediction of preterm PE provided by maternal factors alone (from 56.1% to 80.2%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (80.7% to 87.9%), maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF (85.5% to 90.3%) and maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 (84.9% to 89.8%), at a FPR of 10%. The PSV ratio also improved the prediction of term PE provided by maternal factors alone (from 33.8% to 46.0%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (46.6% to 54.2%), maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF (45.2% to 53.4%) and maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 (43.0% to 51.2%), at a FPR of 10%. The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results. The second peak of systolic velocity did not improve the prediction of either preterm or term PE provided by maternal factors alone.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery PSV ratio at 19-23 weeks' gestation, both on its own and in combination with other biomarkers, is potentially useful for prediction of subsequent development of PE, especially preterm PE, but larger studies are needed to validate this finding. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Randomized controlled trial of topical corticosteroid and home-based narrowband ultraviolet B for active and limited vitiligo: results of the HI-Light Vitiligo Trial

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the effectiveness of vitiligo treatments is limited.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness of (i) handheld narrowband UVB (NB-UVB) and (ii) a combination of potent topical corticosteroid (TCS) and NB-UVB, compared with TCS alone, for localized vitiligo.

METHODS

A pragmatic, three-arm, placebo-controlled randomized controlled trial (9-month treatment, 12-month follow-up). Adults and children, recruited from secondary care and the community, aged ≥ 5 years and with active vitiligo affecting < 10% of skin, were randomized 1 : 1 : 1 to receive TCS (mometasone furoate 0·1% ointment + dummy NB-UVB), NB-UVB (NB-UVB + placebo TCS) or a combination (TCS + NB-UVB). TCS was applied once daily on alternating weeks; NB-UVB was administered on alternate days in escalating doses, adjusted for erythema. The primary outcome was treatment success at 9 months at a target patch assessed using the participant-reported Vitiligo Noticeability Scale, with multiple imputation for missing data. The trial was registered with number ISRCTN17160087 on 8 January 2015.

RESULTS

In total 517 participants were randomized to TCS (n = 173), NB-UVB (n = 169) and combination (n = 175). Primary outcome data were available for 370 (72%) participants. The proportions with target patch treatment success were 17% (TCS), 22% (NB-UVB) and 27% (combination). Combination treatment was superior to TCS: adjusted between-group difference 10·9% (95% confidence interval 1·0%-20·9%; P = 0·032; number needed to treat = 10). NB-UVB alone was not superior to TCS: adjusted between-group difference 5·2% (95% CI - 4·4% to 14·9%; P = 0·29; number needed to treat = 19). Participants using interventions with ≥ 75% expected adherence were more likely to achieve treatment success, but the effects were lost once treatment stopped. Localized grade 3 or 4 erythema was reported in 62 (12%) participants (including three with dummy light). Skin thinning was reported in 13 (2·5%) participants (including one with placebo ointment).

CONCLUSIONS

Combination treatment with home-based handheld NB-UVB plus TCS is likely to be superior to TCS alone for treatment of localized vitiligo. Combination treatment was relatively safe and well tolerated but was successful in only around one-quarter of participants.

An economic evaluation of the randomized controlled trial of topical corticosteroid and home-based narrowband ultraviolet B for active and limited vitiligo (the HI-Light Vitiligo Trial)

BACKGROUND

Economic evidence for vitiligo treatments is absent.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the cost-effectiveness of (i) handheld narrowband ultraviolet B (NB-UVB) and (ii) a combination of topical corticosteroid (TCS) and NB-UVB compared with TCS alone for localized vitiligo.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a pragmatic, three-arm, placebo-controlled randomized controlled trial with 9 months' treatment. In total 517 adults and children (aged ≥ 5 years) with active vitiligo affecting < 10% of skin were recruited from secondary care and the community and were randomized 1: 1: 1 to receive TCS, NB-UVB or both. Cost per successful treatment (measured on the Vitiligo Noticeability Scale) was estimated. Secondary cost-utility analyses measured quality-adjusted life-years using the EuroQol 5 Dimensions 5 Levels for those aged ≥ 11 years and the Child Health Utility 9D for those aged 5 to < 18 years. The trial was registered with number ISRCTN17160087 on 8 January 2015.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD cost per participant was £775 ± 83·7 for NB-UVB, £813 ± 111.4 for combination treatment and £600 ± 96·2 for TCS. In analyses adjusted for age and target patch location, the incremental difference in cost for combination treatment compared with TCS was £211 (95% confidence interval 188-235), corresponding to a risk difference of 10·9% (number needed to treat = 9). The incremental cost was £1932 per successful treatment. The incremental difference in cost for NB-UVB compared with TCS was £173 (95% confidence interval 151-196), with a risk difference of 5·2% (number needed to treat = 19). The incremental cost was £3336 per successful treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Combination treatment, compared with TCS alone, has a lower incremental cost per additional successful treatment than NB-UVB only. Combination treatment would be considered cost-effective if decision makers are willing to pay £1932 per additional treatment success.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

First, to examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE), and, second, to examine the variability between repeat measurements in the same eye and variability in measurements between the two eyes.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history and assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic artery. Waveforms were obtained in sequence from the right eye, left eye and again from the right and then left eye. We recorded the average of the four measurements, two from each eye, for the following four indices: first peak of systolic velocity; second peak of systolic velocity; pulsatility index; and the ratio of the second to first peak of systolic velocity (PSV ratio). The measurements of the four indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to determine the detection rate (DR) of delivery with PE at any time and at < 3 weeks after assessment, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by maternal factors alone and a combination of maternal factors and the adjusted value of each of the four ophthalmic artery indices.

RESULTS

The study population of 2287 pregnancies contained 60 (2.6%) that developed PE, including 19 (0.8%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment. The DR, at 10% FPR, of delivery with PE at any time after assessment by maternal factors was 25.0% (95% CI, 14.7-37.9%), and this increased by 25 percentage points to 50.0% (95% CI, 36.8-63.2%) with the addition of the adjusted PSV ratio (P = 0.005); the respective values for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment were 31.6% (95% CI, 12.6-56.6%) and 57.9% (95% CI, 33.5-79.8%). The other ophthalmic artery indices did not improve the prediction provided by maternal factors alone. There was good correlation between the first and second measurements of PSV ratio from the same eye (right eye r = 0.823, left eye r = 0.840), but poorer correlation in the first and second measurements between the two eyes (first measurement r = 0.690, second measurement r = 0.682). In screening by maternal factors and PSV ratio for PE with delivery at any stage after assessment, the estimated DR, at 10% FPR, was 50.0% when the average of four measurements was used (two from each eye), 49.1% when the average of one measurement from each eye was used, 47.3% when the average of two measurements from the same eye was used, and 45.8% when only one measurement was used.

CONCLUSIONS

Ophthalmic artery PSV ratio at 35-37 weeks' gestation can predict subsequent delivery with PE, especially if this occurs within 3 weeks after assessment. In the assessment of ophthalmic artery Doppler, it is necessary to use the average of one measurement from each eye to minimize variability of measurements. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Screening for pre-eclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation: use of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, placental growth factor or both

OBJECTIVE

First-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) is useful because treatment of the high-risk group with aspirin reduces the rate of early PE with delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation by about 80% and that of preterm PE with delivery at < 37 weeks by 60%. In previous studies, we reported that the best way of identifying the high-risk group is by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and serum placental growth factor (PlGF). An alternative biochemical marker is pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), which is used widely as part of early screening for trisomy. The objective of this study was to examine the additive value of PlGF and PAPP-A in first-trimester screening for preterm PE by maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI and define the risk cut-off and screen-positive rate to achieve a desired detection rate of PE if PAPP-A rather than PlGF was to be used for first-trimester screening.

METHODS

This was a non-intervention screening study. The data were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcomes in women with singleton pregnancy attending for a routine first-trimester hospital visit. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median (MoM) values of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and PAPP-A. The performance of screening in the total population and in subgroups of women of white and black racial origin was estimated. McNemar's test was used to compare the detection rate, for a fixed screen-positive rate, of screening with and without PlGF and PAPP-A. Risk cut-offs and screen-positive rates to achieve desired detection rates of preterm PE were determined in screening with and without PlGF and PAPP-A.

RESULTS

The study population was composed of 60 875 singleton pregnancies, including 1736 (2.9%) that developed PE. There are three main findings of this study. First, the performance of first-trimester screening for PE by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF is superior to that of screening by maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PAPP-A; for example, in screening by maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF, at a screen-positive rate of 10%, the detection rate of PE with delivery at < 37 weeks' gestation was 74.1%, which was 7.1% (95% CI, 3.8-10.6%) higher than in screening by maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PAPP-A. Second, addition of serum PAPP-A does not improve the prediction of PE provided by maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF. Third, the risk cut-off and screen-positive rate to achieve a given fixed detection rate of preterm PE vary according to the racial composition of the study population and whether the biomarkers used for screening are MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF or MAP, UtA-PI and PAPP-A. For example, in screening by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF in white women, if the desired detection rate of preterm PE was 75%, the risk cut-off should be 1 in 136 and the screen-positive rate would be 14.1%; in black women, to achieve a detection rate of 75%, the risk cut-off should be 1 in 29 and the screen-positive rate would be 12.5%. In screening by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PAPP-A in white women, if the desired detection rate of preterm PE was 75%, the risk cut-off should be 1 in 140 and the screen-positive rate would be 16.9%; in black women, to achieve a detection rate of 75%, the risk cut-off should be 1 in 44 and the screen-positive rate would be 19.3%.

CONCLUSION

In first-trimester screening for PE, the preferred biochemical marker is PlGF rather than PAPP-A. However, if PAPP-A was to be used rather than PlGF, the same detection rate can be achieved but at a higher screen-positive rate. © 2020 Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Screening for trisomy at 11-13 weeks' gestation: use of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, placental growth factor or both

OBJECTIVE

Serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF) at 11-13 weeks' gestation are reduced in pregnancies with fetal trisomy and in those that subsequently develop pre-eclampsia (PE). In screening for trisomy, the established biochemical marker is PAPP-A, whereas in screening for PE, the preferred marker is PlGF. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of replacing PAPP-A by PlGF in first-trimester screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG).

METHODS

This was a prospective screening study in singleton pregnancies for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by a combination of maternal age, fetal NT and serum PAPP-A and free β-hCG at 11-13 weeks' gestation in which we also measured PlGF. Multiples of the median (MoM) values were calculated for PAPP-A, free β-hCG and PlGF. The dataset was split randomly into training and test datasets of roughly equal size, and the parameters for PlGF obtained from the training dataset were used in risk calculation for the test dataset. Standardized detection rates were computed by obtaining the likelihood ratios for biochemistry and fetal NT for trisomy-21, -18 and -13 pregnancies in the sample and then applying these to each year of maternal age from 12 to 50 to estimate the age-specific detection rates. These were then weighted according to the maternal age distributions of trisomy-21, -18 and -13 pregnancies in England and Wales in 2018. Similarly, standardized false-positive rates (FPR) were computed by obtaining the likelihood ratios for biochemistry and NT, as appropriate, in normal pregnancies in the sample and then applying these to each year of maternal age from 12 to 50 to estimate the age-specific FPRs. A modeling approach was used to assess the performance of screening according to gestational age at biochemical testing.

RESULTS

The study population of 71 266 pregnancies included 70 858 (99.4%) with normal fetal karyotype or birth of a phenotypically normal neonate and 263 with trisomy 21, 109 with trisomy 18 and 36 with trisomy 13. There are five main findings of this study. First, the performance of screening for trisomy by the first-trimester combined test or the combined test in which PAPP-A is replaced by PlGF is substantially better at 11 than at 13 weeks' gestation; for example, the detection rates of trisomy 21 by the combined test were 94%, 90% and 84%, at 5% FPR, when testing was carried out at 11, 12 and 13 weeks, respectively, and the corresponding values in screening by a test in which PAPP-A is replaced by PlGF were 90%, 87% and 86%, respectively. Second, in trisomy-21 pregnancies, the deviation of median PAPP-A MoM from normal decreases with increasing gestational age, whereas the deviation in PlGF does not change with gestational age. Third, the performance of screening for trisomy 21 during the 11^th and 12^th gestational weeks is superior if screening includes PAPP-A rather than PlGF, whereas during the 13^th week the performance is slightly higher with the use of PlGF rather than PAPP-A. Fourth, in our population with mean gestational age at testing of 12.7 weeks, screening by maternal age, fetal NT, serum free β-hCG and serum PAPP-A predicted 88%, 96% and 97% of cases of fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13, respectively, at a FPR of 5%; the respective values in screening by a test in which PAPP-A is replaced by PlGF were 85%, 96% and 96%. Fifth, addition of serum PlGF does not improve the prediction of trisomy provided by maternal age, fetal NT and serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A.

CONCLUSION

In first-trimester screening for trisomy, the preferred biochemical marker is PAPP-A rather than PlGF, especially when biochemical testing is carried out during the 11^th week of gestation or earlier. However, if PlGF was to be used rather than PAPP-A, the same detection rate can be achieved but at a higher FPR. This may be an acceptable compromise to minimize cost and achieve effective screening for both trisomy and PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

0250 The Day-to-Day Associations Between Sleep Characteristics, Affect, and Affect Reactivity

Introduction

Despite the high co-occurrence of sleep and mood disturbances, day-to-day associations between sleep characteristics (sleep duration, continuity, timing) and dimensions of mood (positive affect, PA, and negative affect, NA) remain unclear. Few field studies have tested whether sleep changes may affect mood by altering people’s emotional response to daily experiences outside the laboratory. The current study aimed to examine how sleep characteristics influence affective states and a measure of emotional response to daily experiences—affect reactivity.

Methods

Participants were healthy, midlife adults (30–54 yrs old, N =462, 47% male) drawn from the Adult Health and Behavior Project- Phase 2 study. Sleep was measured with actigraphy across a 4-day monitoring period; hourly self-report measures of affect, work demand, and social interactions were collected via ecological momentary assessment. Affect reactivity was quantified as hour-to-hour changes in affect following these daily experiences. We used hierarchical linear modeling to examine whether sleep characteristics on a given night predicted average daily affect and moderated affect reactivity the following day.

Results

When participants slept later than their average sleep time on a given night, they reported greater NA the following morning (before 12pm) and afternoon (12-6pm; B’s =.03, p’s&lt;.05). When participants slept longer than their average sleep duration, they subsequently reported greater NA throughout the following day (B’s =.02, p’s&lt;.05). Sleep efficiency was unrelated to affect report (p’s &gt;.05). While episodes of greater work demand and social conflict predicted lower PA and higher NA (p’s&lt;.05), participants’ sleep characteristics did not moderate these associations (p’s&gt;.05).

Conclusion

Overall, our findings suggest proximal associations between sleep characteristics and next-day mood. While previous studies have shown effects of sleep disruptions on affect reactivity, we did not observe such associations in the context of small, day-to-day fluctuations in sleep characteristics among healthy individuals.

Support

National Institutes of Health Grant PO1 HL040962 (to S.B.M.).

Effect of Intravenous Tenecteplase Dose on Cerebral Reperfusion Before Thrombectomy in Patients With Large Vessel Occlusion Ischemic Stroke: The EXTEND-IA TNK Part 2 Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Intravenous thrombolysis with tenecteplase improves reperfusion prior to endovascular thrombectomy for ischemic stroke compared with alteplase.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether 0.40 mg/kg of tenecteplase safely improves reperfusion before endovascular thrombectomy vs 0.25 mg/kg of tenecteplase in patients with large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized clinical trial at 27 hospitals in Australia and 1 in New Zealand using open-label treatment and blinded assessment of radiological and clinical outcomes. Patients were enrolled from December 2017 to July 2019 with follow-up until October 2019. Adult patients (N = 300) with ischemic stroke due to occlusion of the intracranial internal carotid, \basilar, or middle cerebral artery were included less than 4.5 hours after symptom onset using standard intravenous thrombolysis eligibility criteria.

INTERVENTIONS

Open-label tenecteplase at 0.40 mg/kg (maximum, 40 mg; n = 150) or 0.25 mg/kg (maximum, 25 mg; n = 150) given as a bolus before endovascular thrombectomy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was reperfusion of greater than 50% of the involved ischemic territory prior to thrombectomy, assessed by consensus of 2 blinded neuroradiologists. Prespecified secondary outcomes were level of disability at day 90 (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score; range, 0-6); mRS score of 0 to 1 (freedom from disability) or no change from baseline at 90 days; mRS score of 0 to 2 (functional independence) or no change from baseline at 90 days; substantial neurological improvement at 3 days; symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage within 36 hours; and all-cause death.

RESULTS

All 300 patients who were randomized (mean age, 72.7 years; 141 [47%] women) completed the trial. The number of participants with greater than 50% reperfusion of the previously occluded vascular territory was 29 of 150 (19.3%) in the 0.40 mg/kg group vs 29 of 150 (19.3%) in the 0.25 mg/kg group (unadjusted risk difference, 0.0% [95% CI, -8.9% to -8.9%]; adjusted risk ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.66-1.61]; P = .89). Among the 6 secondary outcomes, there were no significant differences in any of the 4 functional outcomes between the 0.40 mg/kg and 0.25 mg/kg groups nor in all-cause deaths (26 [17%] vs 22 [15%]; unadjusted risk difference, 2.7% [95% CI, -5.6% to 11.0%]) or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (7 [4.7%] vs 2 [1.3%]; unadjusted risk difference, 3.3% [95% CI, -0.5% to 7.2%]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke, a dose of 0.40 mg/kg, compared with 0.25 mg/kg, of tenecteplase did not significantly improve cerebral reperfusion prior to endovascular thrombectomy. The findings suggest that the 0.40-mg/kg dose of tenecteplase does not confer an advantage over the 0.25-mg/kg dose in patients with large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke in whom endovascular thrombectomy is planned.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03340493.

A behaviour change package to prevent hand dermatitis in nurses working in the National Health Service: results of a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Occupational hand dermatitis poses a serious risk for nurses.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a complex intervention in reducing the prevalence of hand dermatitis in nurses METHODS: This was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted at 35 hospital trusts, health boards or universities in the UK. Participants were (i) first-year student nurses with a history of atopic conditions or (ii) intensive care unit (ICU) nurses. Participants at intervention sites received access to a behavioural change programme plus moisturizing creams. Participants at control sites received usual care. The primary outcome was the change of prevalent dermatitis at follow-up (adjusted for baseline dermatitis) in the intervention vs. the control group. Randomization was blinded to everyone bar the trials unit to ensure allocation concealment. The trial was registered on the ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN53303171.

RESULTS

Fourteen sites were allocated to the intervention arm and 21 to the control arm. In total 2040 (69·5%) nurses consented to participate and were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The baseline questionnaire was completed by 1727 (84·7%) participants. Overall, 789 (91·6%) ICU nurses and 938 (84·0%) student nurses returned completed questionnaires. Of these, 994 (57·6%) had photographs taken at baseline and follow-up (12-15 months). When adjusted for baseline prevalence of dermatitis and follow-up interval, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for hand dermatitis at follow-up in the intervention group relative to the controls were 0·72 (0·33-1·55) and 0·62 (0·35-1·10) for student and ICU nurses, respectively. No harms were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

There was insufficient evidence to conclude whether our intervention was effective in reducing hand dermatitis in our populations. Linked Comment: Brans. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:411-412.

First-trimester screening for trisomies in pregnancies with vanishing twin

OBJECTIVES

To examine multiples of the median (MoM) values of serum free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in a large series of pregnancies with a vanishing twin, determine the association of these values with the interval between embryonic death and blood sampling, and develop a model that would allow incorporation of these metabolites in first-trimester combined screening for trisomy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study comparing maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A levels at 11-13 weeks' gestation in 528 dichorionic pregnancies with a vanishing twin, including 194 (36.7%) with an empty gestational sac and 334 (63.3%) with a dead embryo, with those in 5280 normal singleton pregnancies matched for method of conception and date of examination. In vanishing-twin pregnancies with a dead embryo, marker levels were examined in relation to the estimated time between embryonic death and maternal blood sampling.

RESULTS

First, in pregnancies with a vanishing twin, median free β-hCG MoM was not significantly different from that in normal singleton pregnancies (1.000; 95% CI, 0.985-1.016 vs 0.995; 95% CI, 0.948-1.044; P = 0.849). Second, PAPP-A MoM was higher in vanishing-twin pregnancies than in normal singleton pregnancies (1.000; 95% CI, 0.985-1.015), both in the group with an empty gestational sac (1.165; 95% CI, 1.080-1.256; P = 0.0001) and in that with a dead embryo (1.175; 95% CI, 1.105-1.249; P < 0.0001). Third, in vanishing-twin pregnancies with a dead embryo, PAPP-A MoM was related inversely to the interval between estimated gestational age at embryonic demise and blood sampling (P < 0.0001). Fourth, in first-trimester screening for trisomy 21 in singleton pregnancies, the estimated detection rate, at a 5% false-positive rate, was 82% in screening by a combination of maternal age and fetal nuchal translucency thickness, and this increased to 86% with the addition of serum free β-hCG and to 91% with the addition of serum PAPP-A. Fifth, similar performance of screening can be achieved in pregnancies with a vanishing twin, provided the appropriate adjustments are made to the level of PAPP-A for the interval between estimated gestational age at embryonic demise and blood sampling.

CONCLUSIONS

First-trimester screening for trisomy in pregnancies with a vanishing twin should rely on a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness and serum free β-hCG, as in singleton pregnancy, without the use of serum PAPP-A. Alternatively, PAPP-A can be included but only after appropriate adjustment for the interval between estimated gestational age at fetal demise and blood sampling. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Losartan may attenuate altitude-related sleep disturbance

INTRODUCTION

Sleep disturbance is common at high altitude and likely driven by an exaggerated peripheral chemoreceptor response which leads to apnoeic episodes and arousal. We hypothesised that this heightened response is in part mediated through angiotensin II receptors in the carotid body. To examine this link, we studied the effect of angiotensin II receptor blocker on sleep disturbance.

METHODS

Twenty participants paired by age, gender and ACE phenotype ascended to the Whymper Hut (5000 m) on Chimborazo in the Ecuadorean Andes as part of a double-blinded randomised placebo-controlled study of physiological mechanisms. Subjects were randomised to either losartan 100 mg daily or placebo. The primary outcome of sleep efficiency was measured using wrist-mounted actigraphs. One pair was excluded from analysis after descending before the end of the study due to acute mountain sickness.

RESULTS

There was a significantly different response to altitude between the two groups (F=3.274, p=0.029), as a decline in sleep efficiency in the placebo group (F=10.259, p<0.001) was not replicated in the angiotensin II receptor blocker group (F=0.459, p=0.713).

CONCLUSION

The absence of any significant sleep disturbance in the intervention group suggests that peripheral chemoreceptor hypersensitivity is largely mediated by angiotensin II receptor activation. However, further research is needed to confirm our findings and to study the potential mechanisms of action.

Impact of biometric measurement error on identification of small- and large-for-gestational-age fetuses

OBJECTIVES

First, to obtain measurement-error models for biometric measurements of fetal abdominal circumference (AC), head circumference (HC) and femur length (FL), and, second, to examine the impact of biometric measurement error on sonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) and its effect on the prediction of small- (SGA) and large- (LGA) for-gestational-age fetuses with EFW < 10^th and > 90^th percentile, respectively.

METHODS

Measurement error standard deviations for fetal AC, HC and FL were obtained from a previous large study on fetal biometry utilizing a standardized measurement protocol and both qualitative and quantitative quality-control monitoring. Typical combinations of AC, HC and FL that gave EFW on the 10^th and 90^th percentiles were determined. A Monte-Carlo simulation study was carried out to examine the effect of measurement error on the classification of fetuses as having EFW above or below the 10^th and 90^th percentiles.

RESULTS

Errors were assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution with a mean of 0 mm and SDs, obtained from a previous well-conducted study, of 6.93 mm for AC, 5.15 mm for HC and 1.38 mm for FL. Assuming errors according to such distributions, when the 10^th and 90^th percentiles are used to screen for SGA and LGA fetuses, respectively, the detection rates would be 78.0% at false-positive rates of 4.7%. If the cut-offs were relaxed to the 30^th and 70^th percentiles, the detection rates would increase to 98.2%, but at false-positive rates of 24.2%. Assuming half of the spread in the error distribution, using the 10^th and 90^th percentiles to screen for SGA and LGA fetuses, respectively, the detection rates would be 86.6% at false-positive rates of 2.3%. If the cut-offs were relaxed to the 15^th and 85^th percentiles, respectively, the detection rates would increase to 97.0% and the false-positive rates would increase to 6.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement error in fetal biometry causes substantial error in EFW, resulting in misclassification of SGA and LGA fetuses. The extent to which improvement can be achieved through effective quality assurance remains to be seen but, as a first step, it is important for practitioners to understand how biometric measurement error impacts the prediction of SGA and LGA fetuses. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Impact of new definitions of pre-eclampsia on incidence and performance of first-trimester screening

OBJECTIVE

The traditional definition of pre-eclampsia (PE) is based on the development of hypertension and proteinuria. This has been revised recently to include cases without proteinuria but with evidence of renal, hepatic or hematological dysfunction. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of new definitions of PE on, first, the incidence and severity of the disease and, second, the performance of the competing-risks model for first-trimester assessment of risk for PE.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 66 964 singleton pregnancies that were classified as having PE, gestational hypertension (GH) or no PE or GH, according to the traditional criteria of the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP-old), which defines PE as the presence of both hypertension and proteinuria. We reviewed the records of pregnancies with GH, and those cases with high creatinine or liver enzymes or low platelet count were reclassified as having PE, according to the new criteria of ISSHP (ISSHP-new) and the new criteria of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG). The groups of PE according to the traditional and new criteria were compared for, first, gestational age at delivery, birth-weight percentile and incidence of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile and perinatal death, and, second, the predictive performance for preterm PE of the competing-risks model based on the combination of maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure and serum placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation (triple test).

RESULTS

According to ISSHP-old, 1870 (2.8%) cases had PE, 2182 (3.3%) had GH and 62 912 (94.0%) had no PE or GH. The incidence of PE according to ACOG was 3.0% (2029/66 964) and ISSHP-new was 3.4% (2301/66 964). Median gestational age at delivery in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (difference, 1.3 weeks; 95% CI, 0.71-1.71 weeks) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (difference, 1.5 weeks; 95% CI, 1.29-1.71 weeks) was higher than in cases with PE according to ISSHP-old (38.4 weeks). The incidence of a SGA neonate in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (relative risk, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42-0.65) was lower than in the cases of PE according to ISSHP-old (33.64%). In first-trimester screening for preterm PE by the triple test, the detection rate, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 75.9% (95% CI, 70.8-80.6%) for ISSHP-old, 74.3% (95% CI, 69.2-79.0%) for ACOG and 74.0% (95% CI, 68.9-78.6%) for ISSHP-new.

CONCLUSIONS

The new definitions of PE resulted in, first, an increase in pregnancies classified as having PE but the additional cases had milder disease, and, second, a non-significant decrease in the performance of first-trimester screening for PE. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Improving regional lung cancer optimal care pathway compliance through a rapid-access respiratory clinic

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in Australia and delays in diagnosis and management increase the potential for disease progression. Incidence and mortality from lung cancer in our region, Gippsland, are higher than the national average, yet there is no known standard referral pathway for diagnosis in the region.

AIM

To identify the current standard of care for lung cancer diagnosis and the impact a rapid access clinic, led by a respiratory physician, has on optimal care pathway (OCP) compliance.

METHODS

A retrospective audit of patients with lung cancer managed through our regional hospital between January and December 2018 (Standard Care group), and a prospective audit of a new rapid access, respiratory-physician led, lung lesion assessment clinic over the same period, were conducted. The primary outcomes were compliance with the OCP target for time from initial computed tomography scan identification of a lung lesion to tissue diagnosis and treatment commencement (target 42 days) when malignancy was confirmed.

RESULTS

There were 25 cases audited in the Standard Care group and 21 cases seen through the Rapid Access Clinic. The Standard Care group met the target for treatment commencement in 33.3% of cases whereas the Rapid Access Clinic group achieved this in 77%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our project highlights the disjointed and delayed lung cancer care in our region and the improvements a dedicated rapid access clinic can have on diagnosis and treatment commencement timeframes.

Validation of competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancy, in a training dataset used for development of the model and a validation dataset.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from two prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The first study of 2219 women, which was reported previously, was used to develop the competing-risks model for prediction of PE and is therefore considered to be the training set. The validation study comprised 2999 women. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 34 (early), < 37 (preterm) and < 41 + 3 (all) weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model and the performance of screening for PE in the training and validation datasets was assessed. We examined the predictive performance of the model by, first, its ability to discriminate between the PE and no-PE groups using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and, second, calibration, which assesses agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of PE.

RESULTS

The incidence of early PE, preterm PE and all PE in the training and validation datasets was similar (1.8% vs 1.4%, 5.6% vs 5.6% and 7.7% vs 7.2%, respectively) and this was substantially higher than in our previous studies in singleton pregnancies. The training and validation datasets had similar AUCs for early PE (0.670 (95% CI, 0.593-0.747) vs 0.677 (95% CI, 0.594-0.760)), preterm PE (0.666 (95% CI, (0.617-0.715) vs 0.652 (95% CI, 0.609-0.694)) and all PE (0.656 (95% CI, 0.615-0.697) vs 0.644 (95% CI, 0.606-0.682)). Calibration plots of the predictive performance of the competing-risks model demonstrated that, in both the training and validation datasets, the observed incidence of PE was lower than the predicted one and such overestimation of risk was particularly marked for early PE.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination and calibration of the competing-risks model for PE in a validation dataset are consistent with those in the training dataset. However, the model needs to be adjusted to correct the observed overestimation of risk for early PE. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.