A high incidence of type 1 diabetes and an alarming increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among young adults in Finland between 1992 and 1996

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the incidence and trends of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the 15-39 year-old population between 1992 and 1996 in Finland.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Data on the nationwide incidence of diabetes were obtained from four data sources: standardised reports from diabetes nurses, the Finnish National Hospital Discharge Register, the Drug Reimbursement Register and the Drug Prescription Register. The inclusion criterion was consistency in the diagnosis of diabetes across at least two data sources. The sex- and age-specific incidence was calculated for 5-year age groups, both for type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The effects of age, sex and year of diagnosis were assessed by fitting the linear regression model to the incidence data.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 1996 the age-adjusted incidence of type 1 diabetes among 15-39 year olds was 15.9 per 100,000/year. The incidence was highest among the 15-19 year olds and decreased with age. Conversely, the incidence of type 2 diabetes was very low among 15-19 year olds and increased with age. The total age-adjusted incidence of type 2 diabetes among 15-39 year olds was 11.8 per 100,000/year. The average annual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes was 7.9% (95% CI 3.7-12.2%).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The age at which the Finnish population is at risk of type 1 diabetes extends into young adulthood. The rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the young adult population is a current public health problem.

Calcium:magnesium ratio in local groundwater and incidence of acute myocardial infarction among males in rural Finland

Several epidemiologic studies have shown an association between calcium and magnesium and coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity. In this small-area study, we examined the relationship between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) risk and content of Ca, Mg, and chromium in local groundwater in Finnish rural areas using Bayesian modeling and geospatial data aggregated into 10 km times symbol 10 km grid cells. Data on 14,495 men 35-74 years of age with their first AMI in the years 1983, 1988, or 1993 were pooled. Geochemical data consisted of 4,300 measurements of each element in local groundwater. The median concentrations of Mg, Ca, and Cr and the Ca:Mg ratio in well water were 2.61 mg/L, 12.23 mg/L, 0.27 microg/L, and 5.39, respectively. Each 1 mg/L increment in Mg level decreased the AMI risk by 4.9%, whereas a one unit increment in the Ca:Mg ratio increased the risk by 3.1%. Ca and Cr did not show any statistically significant effect on the incidence and spatial variation of AMI. Results of this study with specific Bayesian statistical analysis support earlier findings of a protective role of Mg and low Ca:Mg ratio against coronary heart disease but do not support the earlier hypothesis of a protective role of Ca.

A hierarchical Bayesian birth cohort analysis from incomplete registry data: evaluating the trends in the age of onset of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (T1DM)

Childhood diabetes is one of the major non-communicable diseases in children under 15 years of age. It requires a life-long insulin treatment and may lead to serious complications. Along with the worldwide increase in the incidence several countries have recently reported a decreasing trend in the age of onset of the disease. The aim of this study is to analyse long-term data on the incidence of the childhood diabetes in Finland from the birth cohorts perspective. The annual incidence data were available for the period 1965--1996 which translates into 1951--1996 birth cohorts. Hence the data consist of completely and partially observed cohorts. Bayesian modelling was employed in the analysis. Several different priors and cohort combinations were tried in order to determine the sensitivity of the results. The cumulative birth cohort incidence of diabetes was determined to have an increasing average annual trend of 2.5 per cent. Although the average birth cohort-specific age of onset was estimated to have decreased slightly over the years of observation, the trend could be a result of random variation.

Geochemistry of ground water and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in Finland

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of spatial variation in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and its putative environmental determinants in ground water such as total water hardness, the concentration of calcium, magnesium, fluoride, iron, copper, zinc, nitrate, and aluminium.

DESIGN

Small area study using Bayesian modelling and the geo-referenced data aggregated into 10 km x 10 km cells.

SETTING

The population data were obtained from Statistics Finland, AMI case data from the National Death Register and the Hospital Discharge Register, and the geochemical data from hydrogeochemical database of Geological Survey of Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 18 946 men aged 35-74 years with the first AMI attack in the years 1983, 1988, and 1993.

MAIN RESULTS

One unit (in German degree degrees dH) increment in water hardness decreased the risk of AMI by 1%. Geochemical elements in ground water included in this study did not show a statistically significant effect on the incidence and spatial variation of AMI, even though suggestive findings were detected for fluoride (protective), iron and copper (increasing).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study with more specific Bayesian statistical analysis confirm findings from earlier observations of the inverse relation between water hardness and coronary heart disease. The role of environmental geochemistry in the geographical variation of the AMI incidence should be studied further in more detail incorporating the individual intake of both food borne and water borne nutrients. Geochemical-spatial analysis provides a basis for the selection of areas suitable for such research.

Zinc and nitrate in the ground water and the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in Finland

AIMS

In Finland, the risk of childhood Type 1 diabetes varies geographically. Therefore we investigated the association between spatial variation of Type 1 diabetes and its putative environmental risk factors, zinc and nitrates.

METHODS

The association was evaluated using Bayesian modelling and the geo-referenced data on diabetes cases and population.

RESULTS

Neither zinc nor nitrate nor the urban/rural status of the area had a significant effect on the variation in incidence of childhood Type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that although there was no significant difference in incidence between rural and urban areas, there was a tendency to increasing risk of Type 1 diabetes with the increasing concentration of NO3 in drinking water. The fact that no significant effect was found may stem from the aggregated data being too crude to detect it.

The incidence of type 1 diabetes among children in Finland—rural–urban difference

The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence of type 1 diabetes among children aged 14 years or under according to the level of urbanization of the place of residence of children at the time of diagnosis in Finland during 1987 to 1996. The analysis was carried out using a Bayesian approach and GIS. The incidence was the highest in the rural heartland areas while the increase in incidence was sharpest in urban areas. The level of urbanization seems to explain only a part of the spatial variation in the incidence in Finland. It is possible that some environmental risk factors for type 1 diabetes have been more prevalent in rural heartland areas than in the rest of the country. These factors might have increased in urban environments in Finland particularly during the first half of 1990s.

Geographical variation in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in eastern Finland--a Bayesian perspective

BACKGROUND

Large geographical variation in the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease (CHD) has been repeatedly reported in Finland with persistent difference between east and west. We undertook this study to estimate the geographical distribution of Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) incidence in the high-risk province of North Karelia and in the province of Kuopio.

METHODS

Data on men aged 25-64 years with first event of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were obtained from the FINMONICA AMI register, which recorded detailed information of AMI events during the period 1983 to 1992. The geographical pattern of AMI incidence was studied in two five-year periods 1983 to 1987 and 1988 to 1992 separately in 10 km x 10 km grid cells employing the Geographical Information System (GIS) and a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

RESULTS

In both periods Bayesian modeling revealed a geographical pattern of AMI incidence and high risk (probability that incidence exceeds the observed mean incidence) in the remote rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Detection of high-risk areas in both provinces showed that underlying environmental and/or genetic risk factors of AMI are not evenly distributed within the province but enriched in certain geographical non-administratively defined locations in eastern Finland.

Incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes worldwide. Diabetes Mondiale (DiaMond) Project Group

OBJECTIVE

To investigate and monitor the patterns in incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes worldwide.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The incidence of type 1 diabetes (per 100,000 per year) from 1990 to 1994 was determined in children < or =14 years of age from 100 centers in 50 countries. A total of 19,164 cases were diagnosed in study populations totaling 75.1 million children. The annual incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

The overall age-adjusted incidence of type 1 diabetes varied from 0.1/100,000 per year in China and Venezuela to 36.8/100,000 per year in Sardinia and 36.5/100,000 per year in Finland. This represents a >350-fold variation in the incidence among the 100 populations worldwide. The global pattern of variation in incidence was evaluated by arbitrarily grouping the populations with a very low (<1/100,000 per year), a low (1-4.99/100,000 per year), an intermediate (5-9.99/100,000 per year), a high (10-19.99/100,000 per year), and a very high (> or =20/100,000 per year) incidence. Of the European populations, 18 of 39 had an intermediate incidence, and the remainder had a high or very high incidence. A very high incidence (> or =20/ 100,000 per year) was found in Sardinia, Finland, Sweden, Norway Portugal, the U.K., Canada, and New Zealand. The lowest incidence (<1/100,000 per year) was found in the populations from China and South America. In most populations, the incidence increased with age and was the highest among children 10-14 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

The range of global variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes is even larger than previously described. The earlier reported polar-equatorial gradient in the incidence does not seem to be as strong as previously assumed, but the variation seems to follow ethnic and racial distribution in the world population.