Symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder but not panic disorder at age 15 years increase the risk of depression at 18 years in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort study

BACKGROUND

Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and panic disorder (PD) differ in their biology and co-morbidities. We hypothesized that GAD but not PD symptoms at the age of 15 years are associated with depression diagnosis at 18 years.

METHOD

Using longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort we examined relationships of GAD and PD symptoms (measured by the Development and Well-Being Assessment) at 15 years with depression at 18 years (by the Clinical Interview Schedule - Revised) using logistic regression. We excluded adolescents already depressed at 15 years and adjusted for social class, maternal education, birth order, gender, alcohol intake and smoking. We repeated these analyses following multiple imputation for missing data.

RESULTS

In the sample with complete data (n = 2835), high and moderate GAD symptoms in adolescents not depressed at 15 years were associated with increased risk of depression at 18 years both in unadjusted analyses and adjusting for PD symptoms at 15 years and the above potential confounders. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for depression at 18 years in adolescents with high relative to low GAD scores was 5.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0-9.1, overall p < 0.0001]. There were no associations between PD symptoms and depression at 18 years in any model (high relative to low PD scores, adjusted OR = 1.3, 95% CI 0.3-4.8, overall p = 0.737). Missing data imputation strengthened the relationship of GAD symptoms with depression (high relative to low GAD scores, OR = 6.2, 95% CI 3.9-9.9) but those for PD became weaker.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptoms of GAD but not PD at 15 years are associated with depression at 18 years. Clinicians should be aware that adolescents with GAD symptoms may develop depression.

Minimal clinically important difference on the Beck Depression Inventory--II according to the patient's perspective

BACKGROUND

The Beck Depression Inventory, 2nd edition (BDI-II) is widely used in research on depression. However, the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) is unknown. MCID can be estimated in several ways. Here we take a patient-centred approach, anchoring the change on the BDI-II to the patient's global report of improvement.

METHOD

We used data collected (n = 1039) from three randomized controlled trials for the management of depression. Improvement on a 'global rating of change' question was compared with changes in BDI-II scores using general linear modelling to explore baseline dependency, assessing whether MCID is best measured in absolute terms (i.e. difference) or as percent reduction in scores from baseline (i.e. ratio), and receiver operator characteristics (ROC) to estimate MCID according to the optimal threshold above which individuals report feeling 'better'.

RESULTS

Improvement in BDI-II scores associated with reporting feeling 'better' depended on initial depression severity, and statistical modelling indicated that MCID is best measured on a ratio scale as a percentage reduction of score. We estimated a MCID of a 17.5% reduction in scores from baseline from ROC analyses. The corresponding estimate for individuals with longer duration depression who had not responded to antidepressants was higher at 32%.

CONCLUSIONS

MCID on the BDI-II is dependent on baseline severity, is best measured on a ratio scale, and the MCID for treatment-resistant depression is larger than that for more typical depression. This has important implications for clinical trials and practice.

Procalcitonin levels predict infectious complications and response to treatment in patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery for peritoneal malignancy

BACKGROUND

Cytoreductive-surgery for peritoneal-malignancy (PM) involves extensive intra-abdominal surgery and a massive post-operative systemic-inflammatory-response (SIRS). It is often challenging to differentiate SIRS that are solely surgery-associated from those of post-operative infections. White-Cell-Counts (WCC) and C-Reactive-Protein (CRP) are routinely used as markers for infection, but are non-specific and their elevation is often delayed in PM cases. Other markers need to be evaluated to assist early identification/prediction of post-operative infections.

METHODOLOGY

Prospective evaluation of serum procalcitonin (PCT), CRP and WCC in 50 patients pre-operatively (Day0), and on post-operative days (POD) 1, 3 & 6, following cytoreductive-surgery with or without splenectomy.

RESULTS

Day0 PCT, CRP and WCC values were within normal limits, but increasing physiologically in post-operative period without infection, with noticeable higher PCT in splenectomized patients. In our cohort post-operative infections were diagnosed in 14 patients, often within 48 h. There was a trend for faster rise in serum PCT on POD1 compared to CRP and WCC, and faster PCT decline following appropriate therapy on POD3 and POD6 when infected cases were clinically resolving while WCC and CRP continued to rise, particularly in non-spelenectomised patients. The AUC on POD1 was significantly higher for PCT (0.689) vs. WCC (0.476) and CRP (0.477) (p = 0.04). Sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive-value and negative-predictive-values for PCT ranged between (57%-100%), (22%-74%), (33%-47%) & (81%-100%), for CRP (28%-78%), (5.5%-86%), (18%-44.4%) & (40%-75.5%) and for WCC (14%-26.5%), (65.5-80.5%), (22%-25%), (67%-70%) respectively.

CONCLUSION

PCT, like WCC and CRP, needs to be interpreted with extreme cautions in the context of infections post-cytoreductive-surgery and should only be used in association with other clinical and investigational findings.

Do eating disorders in parents predict eating disorders in children? Evidence from a Swedish cohort

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether parental eating disorders (ED) predict ED in children, using a large multigeneration register-based sample.

METHOD

We used a subset of the Stockholm Youth Cohort born 1984-1995 and resident in Stockholm County in 2001-2007 (N = 286,232), The exposure was a diagnosed eating disorder in a parent; the outcome was any eating disorder diagnosis in their offspring, given by a specialist clinician, or inferred from an appointment at a specialist eating disorder clinic. A final study sample of 158,697 (55.4%) had data on these variables and confounding factors and contributed a total of 886,241 person years to the analysis.

RESULTS

We found good evidence in support of the hypothesis that ED in either parent are independently associated with ED in their female children (HR 1.97 (95% CI: 1.17-3.33), P = 0.01) and that ED in mothers are independently associated with ED in their female children (HR 2.35 (95% CI: 1.39-3.97) P = 0.001). Numbers were too low to permit separate analysis of ED in parents and their male children.

CONCLUSION

Eating disorders in parents were associated with ED in children. This study adds to our knowledge about the intergenerational transmission of ED, which will help identify high-risk groups and brings about the possibility of targeted prevention.

Childhood sleep disturbance and risk of psychotic experiences at 18: UK birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Sleep disturbances are commonly reported in the psychosis prodrome, but rarely explored in relation to psychotic experiences.

AIMS

To investigate the relationship between specific parasomnias (nightmares, night terrors and sleepwalking) in childhood and later adolescent psychotic experiences.

METHOD

The sample comprised 4720 individuals from a UK birth cohort. Mothers reported on children's experience of regular nightmares at several time points between 2 and 9 years. Experience of nightmares, night terrors and sleepwalking was assessed using a semi-structured interview at age 12. Psychotic experiences were assessed at ages 12 and 18 using a semi-structured clinical interview.

RESULTS

There was a significant association between the presence of nightmares at 12 and psychotic experiences at 18 when adjusted for possible confounders and psychotic experiences at 12 (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.19-2.20). The odds ratios were larger for those who reported persistent psychotic experiences.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of nightmares might be an early risk indicator for psychosis.

Overcoming the effects of false positives and threshold bias in graph theoretical analyses of neuroimaging data

Graph theory (GT) is a powerful framework for quantifying topological features of neuroimaging-derived functional and structural networks. However, false positive (FP) connections arise frequently and influence the inferred topology of networks. Thresholding is often used to overcome this problem, but an appropriate threshold often relies on a priori assumptions, which will alter inferred network topologies. Four common network metrics (global efficiency, mean clustering coefficient, mean betweenness and smallworldness) were tested using a model tractography dataset. It was found that all four network metrics were significantly affected even by just one FP. Results also show that thresholding effectively dampens the impact of FPs, but at the expense of adding significant bias to network metrics. In a larger number (n=248) of tractography datasets, statistics were computed across random group permutations for a range of thresholds, revealing that statistics for network metrics varied significantly more than for non-network metrics (i.e., number of streamlines and number of edges). Varying degrees of network atrophy were introduced artificially to half the datasets, to test sensitivity to genuine group differences. For some network metrics, this atrophy was detected as significant (p<0.05, determined using permutation testing) only across a limited range of thresholds. We propose a multi-threshold permutation correction (MTPC) method, based on the cluster-enhanced permutation correction approach, to identify sustained significant effects across clusters of thresholds. This approach minimises requirements to determine a single threshold a priori. We demonstrate improved sensitivity of MTPC-corrected metrics to genuine group effects compared to an existing approach and demonstrate the use of MTPC on a previously published network analysis of tractography data derived from a clinical population. In conclusion, we show that there are large biases and instability induced by thresholding, making statistical comparisons of network metrics difficult. However, by testing for effects across multiple thresholds using MTPC, true group differences can be robustly identified.

Evidence-based guidelines for treating depressive disorders with antidepressants: A revision of the 2008 British Association for Psychopharmacology guidelines

A revision of the 2008 British Association for Psychopharmacology evidence-based guidelines for treating depressive disorders with antidepressants was undertaken in order to incorporate new evidence and to update the recommendations where appropriate. A consensus meeting involving experts in depressive disorders and their management was held in September 2012. Key areas in treating depression were reviewed and the strength of evidence and clinical implications were considered. The guidelines were then revised after extensive feedback from participants and interested parties. A literature review is provided which identifies the quality of evidence upon which the recommendations are made. These guidelines cover the nature and detection of depressive disorders, acute treatment with antidepressant drugs, choice of drug versus alternative treatment, practical issues in prescribing and management, next-step treatment, relapse prevention, treatment of relapse and stopping treatment. Significant changes since the last guidelines were published in 2008 include the availability of new antidepressant treatment options, improved evidence supporting certain augmentation strategies (drug and non-drug), management of potential long-term side effects, updated guidance for prescribing in elderly and adolescent populations and updated guidance for optimal prescribing. Suggestions for future research priorities are also made.

Mood, anxiety and psychotic phenomena measure a common psychopathological factor

BACKGROUND

Psychotic phenomena are common in the general population but are excluded from diagnostic criteria for mild to moderate depression and anxiety despite their co-occurrence and shared risk factors. We used item response theory modelling to examine whether the co-occurrence of depressive, anxiety and psychotic phenomena is best explained by: (1) a single underlying factor; (2) two separate, uncorrelated factors; (3) two separate yet linked factors; or (4) two separate domains along with an underlying 'common mental distress' (CMD) factor. We defined where, along any latent continuum, the psychopathological items contributed most information.

METHOD

We performed a secondary analysis of cross-sectional, item-level information from measures of depression, anxiety and psychotic experiences in 6617 participants aged 13 years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort and 977 participants aged 18 years from the ROOTS schools-based sample. We replicated results from one sample in the other and validated the latent factors against an earlier parental measure of mental state.

RESULTS

In both cohorts depression, anxiety and psychotic items were best represented as a bi-factor model with a single, unitary CMD factor on which psychotic items conveyed information about the more severe end (model 4); residual variation remained for psychotic items. The CMD factor was significantly associated with the prior parental measure.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychotic phenomena co-occur with depression and anxiety in teenagers and may be a marker of severity in a single, unitary dimension of CMD. Psychotic phenomena should be routinely included in epidemiological assessments of psychiatric morbidity, otherwise the most severe symptomatology remains unmeasured.

Factors associated with maternal death from direct pregnancy complications: a UK national case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the factors associated with maternal death from direct pregnancy complications in the UK.

DESIGN

Unmatched case-control analysis.

SETTING

All hospitals caring for pregnant women in the UK.

POPULATION

A total of 135 women who died (cases) between 2009 and 2012 from eclampsia, pulmonary embolism, severe sepsis, amniotic fluid embolism, and peripartum haemorrhage, using data from the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Death, and another 1661 women who survived severe complications (controls) caused by these conditions (2005-2013), using data from the UK Obstetric Surveillance System.

METHODS

Multivariable regression analyses were undertaken to identify the factors that were associated with maternal deaths and to estimate the additive odds associated with the presence of one or more of these factors.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Odds ratios associated with maternal death and population-attributable fractions, with 95% confidence intervals. Incremental risk of death associated with the factors using a 'risk factors' score.

RESULTS

Six factors were independently associated with maternal death: inadequate use of antenatal care (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 15.87, 95% CI 6.73-37.41); substance misuse (aOR 10.16, 95% CI 1.81-57.04); medical comorbidities (aOR 4.82, 95% CI 3.14-7.40); previous pregnancy problems (aOR 2.21, 95% CI 1.34-3.62); hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (aOR 2.44, 95% CI 1.31-4.52); and Indian ethnicity (aOR 2.70, 95% CI 1.14-6.43). Of the increased risk associated with maternal death, 70% (95% CI 66-73%) could be attributed to these factors. Odds associated with maternal death increased by three and a half times per unit increase in the 'risk factor' score (aOR 3.59, 95% CI 2.83-4.56).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that medical comorbidities are importantly associated with direct (obstetric) deaths. Further studies are required to understand whether specific aspects of care could be improved to reduce maternal deaths among women with medical comorbidities in the UK.

Cognitive styles and future depressed mood in early adulthood: the importance of global attributions

BACKGROUND

Cognitive theories of depression suggest that beliefs of low self-worth and the tendency to attribute negative events to causes that are global (widespread rather than specific) and stable (will persist rather than change in the future) are associated with the development of depressed mood. Such theories are supported by evidence from prospective studies and have guided the development of successful treatment and prevention strategies such as CBT. However, the relative importance of different psychological constructs within cognitive theories is unknown. This is important to refine cognitive theories and develop more efficient prevention strategies.

METHOD

We used prospective data from over 3500 young adults from the Avon Longitudinal Study for Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort in the UK to investigate the association between cognitive style, measured by short forms of the Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale (DAS) and Cognitive Styles Questionnaire-Short Form (CSQ-SF) at age 18, and future depressed mood at age 19. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to separate cognitive style constructs.

RESULTS

Cognitive styles were associated with future depressed mood, independently of baseline mood, both as measured by the DAS-SF and the CSQ-SF. Of the different CSQ-SF constructs, only global attributions were associated with both baseline and future mood independently of other constructs.

LIMITATIONS

The study was subject to attrition and the follow-up was relatively short (10 months).

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that the tendency to attribute negative events specifically to global causes could be particularly important for depression. Reducing global attributions is potentially important in the prevention and treatment of depression.

Associations of cannabis and cigarette use with psychotic experiences at age 18: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

BACKGROUND

A clearer understanding of the basis for the association between cannabis use and psychotic experiences (PEs) is required. Our aim was to examine the extent to which associations between cannabis and cigarette use and PEs are due to confounding.

METHOD

A cohort study of 1756 adolescents with data on cannabis use, cigarette use and PEs.

RESULTS

Cannabis use and cigarette use at age 16 were both associated, to a similar degree, with PEs at age 18 [odds ratio (OR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.86 for cannabis and OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.31-1.98 for cigarettes]. Adjustment for cigarette smoking frequency (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.91-1.76) or other illicit drug use (OR 1.25, 95% CI 0.91-1.73) substantially attenuated the relationship between cannabis and PEs. The attenuation was to a lesser degree when cannabis use was adjusted for in the cigarette PE association (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.92). However, almost all of the participants used cannabis with tobacco, including those who classed themselves as non-cigarette smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Teasing out the effects of cannabis from tobacco is highly complex and may not have been dealt with adequately in studies to date, including this one. Complementary methods are required to robustly examine the independent effects of cannabis, tobacco and other illicit drugs on PEs.

The cultural environment behind successful maternal death and morbidity reviews

This paper discusses some of the background principles which, through wide experience of instituting reviews of maternal deaths or near-misses around the world, appear common to their successful introduction. A supportive culture at personal, institutional and national level underpinned by the fostering of professionalism and the development of an ethos of safety against a wider supportive environment is needed. Reviews undertaken at a local level are as beneficial as those at a regional or population level and should be encouraged as a routine part of the quality improvement agenda for each and every healthcare facility.

Maternal near-miss case reviews: the UK approach

The UK has a well-established programme of Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths and a national system for research into near-miss maternal morbidities, the UK Obstetric Surveillance System. The addition of a programme of near-miss case reviews, the Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Morbidity, permits a complete examination of the incidence, risk factors, care and outcomes of the severest complications in pregnancy, and enables the lessons learnt to improve future care to be identified more quickly. This in turn allows for more rapid inclusion of recommendations into national guidance and hence the potential of better health for both women and babies.

Allowing for non-adherence to treatment in a randomized controlled trial of two antidepressants (citalopram versus reboxetine): an example from the GENPOD trial

BACKGROUND

Meta-analyses suggest that reboxetine may be less effective than other antidepressants. Such comparisons may be biased by lower adherence to reboxetine and subsequent handling of missing outcome data. This study illustrates how to adjust for differential non-adherence and hence derive an unbiased estimate of the efficacy of reboxetine compared with citalopram in primary care patients with depression.

METHOD

A structural mean modelling (SMM) approach was used to generate adherence-adjusted estimates of the efficacy of reboxetine compared with citalopram using GENetic and clinical Predictors Of treatment response in Depression (GENPOD) trial data. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses were performed to compare estimates of effectiveness with results from previous meta-analyses.

RESULTS

At 6 weeks, 92% of those randomized to citalopram were still taking their medication, compared with 72% of those randomized to reboxetine. In ITT analysis, there was only weak evidence that those on reboxetine had a slightly worse outcome than those on citalopram [adjusted difference in mean Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scores: 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.52 to 2.90, p = 0.17]. There was no evidence of a difference in efficacy when differential non-adherence was accounted for using the SMM approach for mean BDI (-0.29, 95% CI -3.04 to 2.46, p = 0.84) or the other mental health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of a difference in the efficacy of reboxetine and citalopram when these drugs are taken and tolerated by depressed patients. The SMM approach can be implemented in standard statistical software to adjust for differential non-adherence and generate unbiased estimates of treatment efficacy for comparisons of two (or more) active interventions.