Assessing the monitoring of sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) abundance in southern New Zealand

Recent declines of many seabird populations have placed increased emphasis on determining the status of potentially threatened species. However, the burrow-nesting habits and inter-annual fluctuation in breeding numbers of some species make trend detection difficult, and so knowledge of their population dynamics often remains coarse. Here we report observed fluctuations, and assess the efficacy of monitoring of sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus), on three islands in southern New Zealand between the breeding seasons of 1996–97 and 2004–05. Apart from a steady increase in burrow-occupant density at one island, few significant trends in abundance measures were detected. Considerable variation among individual sites within islands led to high uncertainty in island-wide trend estimates. Simulations showed that the measurements of occupant density have a limited ability of detecting all but very pronounced trends, whereas changes in burrow-entrance density are more likely to be detected. Annual fluctuations in the proportion of occupied burrows at individual sampling sites were highly synchronous within islands and reasonably synchronous between two of the islands, suggesting that breeding numbers are at least partly determined by broad-scale factors. The large declines in the abundance of sooty shearwaters reported from the late 1980s to mid-1990s appear not to have continued through our monitoring period. Lack of adequate within- and among-island replication, and short time series of data may severely reduce our ability reliably to detect population trends in many studies of burrowing Procellariiformes.

Estimates of productivity and detection probabilities of breeding attempts in the sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus), a burrow-nesting petrel

Monitoring of breeding success in burrow-nesting seabirds is problematic, owing to the difficulties of detecting occupants in complex burrow systems. We summarise 6 years of monitoring the breeding success of sooty shearwater (tītī, muttonbird, Puffinus griseus) on two southern New Zealand islands, The Snares and Whenua Hou, with a portable infrared camera system. Breeding attempts were monitored three times during the breeding season, i.e. egg laying, hatching and fledging. Overall breeding success was calculated in two stages. First, we estimated breeding success for each island–site–year combination with a model that allowed for imperfect detection of an egg or chick and accounted for the proportion of the breeding season that was covered by monitoring. The resulting estimates for each island were then analysed with a linear model, to provide a single estimate for that island. Breeding success was found to be highly variable and non-synchronous between islands, with the average proportion of eggs successfully fledging on The Snares (0.35, 0.20–0.52; mean and 95% creditable interval) being considerably lower and more variable than that on Whenua Hou (0.76, 0.70–0.82). Probability of detecting a breeding attempt was higher on The Snares whereas correcting for the proportion of the season monitored had a variable effect, reducing The Snares and Whenua Hou estimates by 27% and 7% respectively. The implications of these findings with respect to the demographic modelling of burrow-nesting species are discussed.

Abstract A118: Tea drinking habits and esophageal cancer in a high risk area in Northern Iran

A118

Golestan Province in northern Iran is a high incidence area for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We investigated the association between tea drinking habits and risk of ESCC in a population-based case-control study conducted between 2003 and 2007 in Golestan, with 300 histologically-proven ESCC cases and 571 matched neighborhood controls. In addition, we measured tea temperature and tea drinking patterns among 48582 healthy participants in a cohort study in the same region. Nearly all (98%) of the cohort participants drank black tea regularly, with a mean volume of over one liter/day, and over 60% drank their tea at temperatures over 60°C. The results of the case-control study showed that compared to drinking lukewarm or warm tea, the OR (95% CI) for drinking hot tea was 2.07 (1.28-3.35) and for drinking very hot tea was 8.16 (3.93-16.9). Likewise, compared to drinking tea four or more minutes after pouring it, the ORs (95% CIs) for drinking tea 2-3 minutes and less than 2 minutes after pouring were 2.49 (1.62 - 3.83) and 5.41 (2.63 - 11.1), respectively. There was a strong agreement between responses to questions on temperature of tea drinking and time interval from pouring tea to drinking it (weighted kappa = 0.68). In conclusion, drinking hot tea, a habit commonly seen in Golestan Province, was strongly associated with higher risk of ESCC.

Citation Information: Cancer Prev Res 2008;1(7 Suppl):A118.

Duplication of the fusion of TMPRSS2 to ERG sequences identifies fatal human prostate cancer

New predictive markers for managing prostate cancer are urgently required because of the highly variable natural history of this disease. At the time of diagnosis, Gleason score provides the gold standard for assessing the aggressiveness of prostate cancer. However, the recent discovery of TMPRSS2 fusions to the ERG gene in prostate cancer raises the possibility of using alterations at the ERG locus as additional mechanism-based prognostic indicators. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assays were used to assess ERG gene status in a cohort of 445 prostate cancers from patients who had been conservatively managed. The FISH assays detected separation of 5' (labelled green) and 3' (labelled red) ERG sequences, which is a consequence of the TMPRSS2-ERG fusion, and additionally identify interstitial deletion of genomic sequences between the tandemly located TMPRSS2 and ERG gene sequences on chromosome 21. Cancers lacking ERG alterations exhibited favourable cause-specific survival (90% survival at 8 years). We identify a novel category of prostate cancers, characterized by duplication of the fusion of TMPRSS2 to ERG sequences together with interstitial deletion of sequences 5' to ERG (called '2+Edel'), which by comparison exhibited extremely poor cause-specific survival (hazard ratio=6.10, 95% confidence ratio=3.33-11.15, P<0.001, 25% survival at 8 years). In multivariate analysis, '2+Edel' provided significant prognostic information (P=0.003) in addition to that provided by Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen level at diagnosis. Other individual categories of ERG alteration were associated with intermediate or good prognosis. We conclude that determination of ERG gene status, including duplication of the fusion of TMPRSS2 to ERG sequences in 2+Edel, allows stratification of prostate cancer into distinct survival categories.

Migratory shearwaters integrate oceanic resources across the Pacific Ocean in an endless summer

Electronic tracking tags have revolutionized our understanding of broad-scale movements and habitat use of highly mobile marine animals, but a large gap in our knowledge still remains for a wide range of small species. Here, we report the extraordinary transequatorial postbreeding migrations of a small seabird, the sooty shearwater, obtained with miniature archival tags that log data for estimating position, dive depth, and ambient temperature. Tracks (262+/-23 days) reveal that shearwaters fly across the entire Pacific Ocean in a figure-eight pattern while traveling 64,037+/-9,779 km roundtrip, the longest animal migration ever recorded electronically. Each shearwater made a prolonged stopover in one of three discrete regions off Japan, Alaska, or California before returning to New Zealand through a relatively narrow corridor in the central Pacific Ocean. Transit rates as high as 910+/-186 km.day-1 were recorded, and shearwaters accessed prey resources in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's most productive waters from the surface to 68.2 m depth. Our results indicate that sooty shearwaters integrate oceanic resources throughout the Pacific Basin on a yearly scale. Sooty shearwater populations today are declining, and because they operate on a global scale, they may serve as an important indicator of climate change and ocean health.

Factors Influencing the Use of Antitumoral Chemotherapy in the South East of England

Influences on the use of chemotherapy for the treatment of cancer within the South East region of England for patients diagnosed with colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer were investigated. The variables investigated as possibly influencing the selection of chemotherapy were the sex of the patients, their age, the year of diagnosis, the cancer site, the cancer stage, the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the cancer network of residence. Logistic regression used to adjust the proportion receiving chemotherapy in relation to other variables considered showed significant differences in the proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy between different cancer sites and different networks. There was also a highly significant trend seen in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 10.6% in 1993 to 24.3% in 2002. Age, stage and cancer site seemed to have the most influence on the use of chemotherapy.

The scavenging behaviour of ferrets (Mustela furo), feral cats (Felis domesticus), possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and harrier hawks (Circus approximans) on pastoral farmland in New Zealand: implications for bovine tuberculosis transmission

AIMS

To identify species that scavenge carcasses in pastoral habitats in New Zealand; to determine whether there were interspecific or intraspecific differences in scavenging behaviour and; to document any interspecific or intraspecific interactions occurring at carcasses.

METHODS

Scavenging by ferrets (Mustela furo), feral cats (Felis domesticus), possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and harrier hawks (Circus approximans) was studied from autumn to midwinter on pastoral farmland near Palmerston (45S, 170E), Otago, New Zealand. Time-lapse video recorders and camera lens mounted with infra-red light illumination were used to monitor carcasses of 10 ferrets, 12 possums, 2 hedgehogs and 7 rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) until they were totally scavenged.

RESULTS

Ferrets scavenged 5/8 ferret carcasses, 8/9 possum carcasses and 6/7 rabbit carcasses encountered. Feral cats scavenged 3/8 ferret carcasses, 5/7 rabbit carcasses, and 3/8 possum carcasses encountered. Possums scavenged 1/2 ferret carcasses and 3/4 rabbit carcasses encountered. The proportion of encounters resulting in feeding on ferret carcasses differed between ferrets (45.7%) and possums (6.3%), and between possums and cats (29.7%). Similarly, for possum carcasses, differences were found between ferrets (76.6%) and possums (0%), ferrets and cats (60.6%) and possums and cats. No interspecific differences were found in the proportion of encounters that resulted in feeding on rabbit carcasses between ferrets (85.2%), possums (75%) and cats (73.1%). In 8/12 instances of ferrets coming into contact with other ferrets whilst feeding, ferrets fed together at the carcass. On 1 occasion, 4 ferrets were recorded feeding together. In 7/8 instances where cats and ferrets came into contact over carrion, ferrets maintained possession or displaced the cat from the carcass.

CONCLUSIONS

Communal carrion feeding by ferrets may facilitate intraspecific and interspecific transmission of bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) by the consumption of contaminated carrion, fighting, or close-contact activities. Cannibalism may be one mechanism by which tuberculosis is transmitted within ferret populations. Our results also suggest that possums may acquire infection from carrion, despite being mainly herbivorous.

Endometrial Cancer Incidence Trends in Europe: Underlying Determinants and Prospects for Prevention

More than one in 20 female cancers in Europe are of the endometrium. Surveillance of incidence rates is imperative given the rapidly changing profile in the prevalence and distribution of the underlying determinants. This study presents an analysis of observed and age-period-cohort-modeled trends in 13 European countries. There were increasing trends among postmenopausal women in many Northern and Western countries. Denmark and possibly France and Switzerland were exceptions, with decreasing trends in postmenopausal women. In premenopausal and perimenopausal women, declines were observed in Northern and Western Europe, most evidently in Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, affecting consecutive generations born after 1925. These contrast with the increasing trends regardless of menopausal age in some Southern and Eastern European countries, particularly Slovakia and Slovenia. These observations provide evidence of changes in several established risk factors over time and have implications for possible primary prevention strategies. In postmenopausal women, changes in reproductive behavior and prevalence of overweight and obesity may partially account for the observed increases, as well as hormone replacement therapy use in certain countries. Combined oral contraceptive use may be responsible for the declines observed among women aged <55 years. Whereas there are some prospects for chemoprevention in premenopausal women as oral contraceptive use becomes more widespread in Europe, increases in obesity and decreases in fertility imply that endometrial cancer in postmenopausal women will become a more substantial public health problem in the future.