Relationship between antidepressant sales and secular trends in suicide rates in the Nordic countries

BACKGROUND

The effect of recent increases in antidepressant prescribing on population suicide rates is uncertain.

AIMS

To investigate the relationship between antidepressant sales and trends in suicide rates.

METHOD

Graphical and quantitative assessment of trends in suicide and antidepressant sales in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

RESULTS

Suicide rates declined in all four countries during the 1990 s, whereas antidepressant sales increased by 3- to 4-fold. Decreasing suicide rates in Sweden and Denmark preceded the rise in antidepressant sales by over 10 years, although the reductions accelerated between 1988 and 1990. In Norway, a modest but short-lived decline in suicide rates began around the time of the increase in antidepressant sales. In Finland, decreases in male suicide rates and to a lesser extent in female suicide rates began around the time of increased antidepressant sales. In all four countries decreases in suicide rates appeared to precede the widespread use of SSRIs.

CONCLUSIONS

We found mixed evidence that increases in antidepressant sales have coincided with a reduction in the number of suicides in Nordic countries.

Partial photoionization cross sections and angular distributions for double excitation of helium up to the N = 13 threshold

Partial photoionization cross sections sigmaN(Egamma) and photoelectron angular distributions betaN(Egamma) were measured for the final ionic states He+ (N > 4) in the region between the N = 8 and N = 13 thresholds (Egamma > 78.155 eV) using the cold target recoil ion momentum spectroscopy technique (COLTRIMS). Comparison of the experimental data with two independent sets of theoretical predictions reveals disagreement for the branching ratios to the various HeN(+) states. The angular distributions just below the double ionization threshold suggest an excitation process for highly excited N states similar to the Wannier mechanism for double ionization.

Bayesian projections: what are the effects of excluding data from younger age groups?

Bayesian age-period-cohort models are used increasingly to project cancer incidence and mortality rates. Data for younger age groups for which rates are low are often discarded from the analysis. The authors explored the effect of excluding these data, in terms of the precision and accuracy of projections, for selected cancer mortality data sets. Projections were made by using a generalized Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Smoothing was applied to each time scale to reduce random variation between adjacent parameter estimates. The sum of squared standardized residuals was used to assess the accuracy of projections, and 90% credible intervals were calculated to assess precision. For the data sets considered, inclusion of all age groups in the analysis provided more precise age-standardized and age-specific projections as well as more accurate age-specific projections for younger age groups. An overall improvement in the accuracy of age-standardized rates was demonstrated for males but not females, which may suggest that analysis of the full data set is beneficial when projecting cancer rates with strong cohort effects.

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Devon: a comparison of the new and old classification criteria

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Devon and compare the new McDonald classification guidelines with the Poser criteria currently used.

METHODS

All patients known to have multiple sclerosis and alive and resident within the chosen area on 1 June 2001 were included in the study. Seven sources of case ascertainment were used and each patient was classified according to both the Poser criteria and the McDonald guidelines.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Devon was 118 per 100,000 (definite and probable cases, Poser criteria) in a population of 341,796, on the prevalence day. The prevalence of definite and possible cases, as classified by the new McDonald guidelines, was slightly lower at 117 per 100,000. Clinical demographics of the prevalent population were similar to those of other studies in the United Kingdom.

CONCLUSIONS

This is first survey to use the new recommended guidelines and compare these criteria with the Poser classification. The difficulties encountered with applying the new criteria in research are highlighted, as are the differences between the new and old criteria. This study reports one of the highest prevalences in the south of the UK, adding support for a north-south divide being a step effect rather than a latitudinal gradient.

Integral representation for the electron-atom ionization amplitude which is free of ambiguity and divergence problems

It is shown that existing problems with the formal theory of ionization can be effectively resolved. An integral representation for the ionization amplitude free of ambiguity and divergence problems is given. Moreover, the ionization amplitude in the new formulation is shown directly to have an ideal form for practical calculations.

Mechanisms of photo double ionization of helium by 530 eV photons

We have measured fully differential cross sections for photo double ionization of helium 450 eV above the threshold. We have found an extremely asymmetric energy sharing between the photoelectrons and an angular asymmetry parameter beta approximately 2 and beta approximately 0 for the fast and slow electrons, respectively. The electron angular distributions show a dominance of the shakeoff for 2 eV electrons and clear evidence of an inelastic electron-electron scattering at an electron energy of 30 eV. The data are in excellent agreement with convergent close-coupling calculations.

Recent trends and future directions for lung cancer mortality in Europe

Lung cancer mortality patterns throughout Europe are very heterogeneous and largely reflect past smoking habits. In order to clarify the changing patterns of lung cancer in Europe we have plotted the overall lung cancer trends among men and women for 20 countries from 1950 up to 1998. Furthermore, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated 5 year projections of lung cancer rate up to 2003. Finally, we make some comments on probable future trends by analysing recent trends in adults aged <55 years. Lung cancer mortality rates up to age 75 years portray a general trend of decreasing lung cancer rates among men and increasing lung cancer rates among women. Exceptions to this decrease among men include Hungary where not only are current mortality rates much higher than previously observed in any other country (at 76.7 out of 100,000 in 1998) but they are projected to increase further in the short term. Rates among adults aged <55 years have recently peaked, indicating that overall rates are likely to peak in the next decade. Among women, rapid increases have been observed in Denmark, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland and UK. Whereas Ireland and UK rates have started to decrease and are projected to continue falling, rates in the other three countries are projected to increase further. Trends in women aged <55 years indicate that rates in Danish women will peak in the next decade, whereas lung cancer rates among Dutch women are likely to continue increasing. Rates in Hungarian women are likely to increase and will surpass the current high rate observed in Denmark.

Benchmark nonperturbative calculations for the electron-impact ionization of Li(2s) and Li(2p)

Three independent nonperturbative calculations are reported for the electron-impact ionization of both the ground and first excited states of the neutral lithium atom. The time-dependent close-coupling, the R matrix with pseudostates, and the converged close-coupling methods yield total integral cross sections that are in very good agreement with each other, while perturbative distorted-wave calculations yield cross sections that are substantially higher. These nonperturbative calculations provide a benchmark for the continued development of electron-atom experimental methods designed to measure both ground and excited state ionization.

Recent trends and future projections of lymphoid neoplasms--a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

A steady increase in incidence of lymphoid neoplasms has been reported, especially for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Using high-quality incidence data from 1973-1992 in nine population-based cancer registries (Alberta, Bombay, Denmark, Israel, New Zealand, Osaka, Oxford, Slovenia, Utah), we have examined past increases in specific lymphoid neoplasms. Further, by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated 5-, 10- and 15-year projections for each group of lymphoid neoplasms.

RESULTS

NHL incidence increased in all centers by an average of 77% in men and 66% in women between 1973 and 1992. Fifteen-year projections of these rates to 2003-2007 indicate that they will increase by an average of 55% among men and 79% among women. High projected incidence rates above 15/100,000 in men and 10/100,000 in women are expected in Alberta, Denmark, Israel, New Zealand, Oxford, and Utah by 2003-2007. The one notable exception was among men from Osaka, where no increase was projected. Modest increases in leukemia and multiple myeloma rates were observed in most of the nine registries with further projected increases by 2007. Projected incidence rates of Hodgkin's disease indicated little change.

CONCLUSION

Increases in NHL rates are occurring worldwide and provide no evidence of peaking. A key assumption in the projected rates is that the effect of environmental agents determining the trends during 1973-1992 will remain stable during the subsequent projection period.

Estimating birth prevalence of Down's syndrome

BACKGROUND

Estimates of maternal age-specific prevalence of Down's syndrome are needed for the assessment of environmental factors, for counselling and monitoring screening programmes. The estimates should relate to populations of women who have not received prenatal screening. This is normally achieved by using data collected before the widespread use of screening. The problem of under-ascertainment in some data-sets has been recognised in the literature, but has not been dealt with satisfactorily in the statistical models used to estimate live-birth prevalence.

METHODS

In this paper we develop a model that takes explicit account of under-ascertainment and apply this model to data from nine published studies. The primary aim of our analysis is to provide an improved model for live-birth prevalence. A secondary aim is to examine the ascertainment rates in the nine studies.

RESULTS

The proposed model provides a good fit to all but one of the nine studies, although exclusion of this study does not affect the estimated risks. The estimate of risk weighted across the maternal age distribution is 1.41 in 1000 live-births [90% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-1.49].

DISCUSSION

Comparing this figure with those obtained from published rate schedules suggests that the proposed model predicts rates that are some 10% higher than those obtained when ascertainment is assumed to be complete in all studies. The predicted rates are similar to those calculated when only those studies known to have high levels of acertainment are included.

Empirical Bayes adjustments for multiple results in hypothesis-generating or surveillance studies

Traditional methods of adjustment for multiple comparisons (e.g., Bonferroni adjustments) have fallen into disuse in epidemiological studies. However, alternative kinds of adjustment for data with multiple comparisons may sometimes be advisable. When a large number of comparisons are made, and when there is a high cost to investigating false positive leads, empirical or semi-Bayes adjustments may help in the selection of the most promising leads. Here we offer an example of such adjustments in a large surveillance data set of occupation and cancer in Nordic countries, in which we used empirical Bayes (EB) adjustments to evaluate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer and occupation among craftsmen and laborers. For men, there were 642 SIRs, of which 138 (21%) had a P < 0.05 (13% positive with SIR > 1.0 and 8% negative with SIR < or = 1.0) when testing the null hypothesis of no cancer/occupation association; some of these were probably due to confounding by nonoccupational risk factors (e.g., smoking). After EB adjustments, there were 95 (15%) SIRs with P < 0.05 (10% positive and 5% negative). For women, there were 373 SIRs, of which 37 (10%) had P < 0.05 before adjustment (6% positive and 4% negative) and 13 (3%) had P < 0.05 after adjustment (2% positive and 1% negative). Several known associations were confirmed after EB adjustment (e.g., pleural cancer among plumbers, original SIR 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-4.1), adjusted SIR 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.4). EB can produce more accurate estimates of relative risk by shrinking imprecise outliers toward the mean, which may reduce the number of false positives otherwise flagged for further investigation. For example, liver cancer among chimney sweepers was reduced from an original SIR of 2.2 (range, 1.1-4.4) to an adjusted SIR of 1.1 (range, 0.9-1.4). A potentially important future application for EB is studies of gene-environment-disease interactions, in which hundreds of polymorphisms may be evaluated with dozens of environmental risk factors in large cohort studies, producing thousands of associations.

Projections of alcohol- and tobacco-related cancer mortality in Central Europe

Central European mortality rates for cancer sites related to tobacco and alcohol have increased rapidly in recent decades. From a public health point of view, it is of considerable interest to know whether these past increases in cancer mortality will continue into the future. Cancer mortality rates for the period 1965-1994 in Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Slovakia (analysed together), Hungary, Poland, and Romania were analysed for cancers of the larynx, oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, bladder, kidney, and pancreas. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated smoothed observed rates. The effects of period and cohort were extrapolated to estimate mortality projections for 1995-99, 2004-09, and 2005-09. Mortality rates for all sites are projected to increase in most countries. Hungary has the highest projected rates for most sites, and particularly rapid increases are expected for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx and of the larynx in Hungarian men. The smoothed 1990-94 male mortality rates for these two sites of 16. 32/100,000 and 8.70/100,000, respectively, are projected to reach 35. 17/100,000 for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx and 14.12/100, 000 for cancer of the larynx by the period 2000-04. For kidney cancer, former Czechoslovakia has the highest observed and projected mortality rates. The smoothed 1990-94 rate of 8.37/100,000 is expected to increase 24% to 10.38/100,000 by 2000-04. Our results indicate that further increases may be expected on top of the already high cancer mortality levels in Central Europe. Policies to reduce alcohol consumption and prevent smoking in younger generations are necessary to reduce mortality as these cohorts age.

Joint estimation of Down syndrome risk and ascertainment rates: a meta-analysis of nine published data sets

In this paper we present an analysis of nine data sets in which ascertainment and maternal age risk of Down syndrome are estimated jointly using maximum likelihood. We include data on 4825 Down syndrome cases from nine previously published data sets. These include data from studies carried out before the introduction of prenatal screening and from recent studies involving women who had not received prenatal testing. Our results show that, allowing for under-ascertainment, there is a good degree of consistency between the different data sets. We compare the three- and five-parameter constant plus exponential model with a three-parameter logistic model for maternal age-specific risk. We show that the three-parameter logistic model provides a good fit to the data and compare rates from this model with those derived from published studies of uncertain completeness (Cuckle et al., 1987) and those from data sets believed to be complete (Halliday et al., 1995; Hecht and Hook, 1994, 1996). In general, our results agree closely with those of the latter, but achieve greater precision because of the inclusion of additional data. Our derived rates are considerably higher than those of Cuckle et al. (1987), which are embedded in many computer systems for generating risks.