Effect of A Randomized trial of Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformation on Interventional Treatment Rates for Unruptured Arteriovenous Malformations

BACKGROUND

In 2013, investigators from A Randomized Trial of Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformations (AVM; ARUBA) reported that interventions to obliterate unruptured AVMs caused more morbidity and mortality than medical management.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine whether interventions for unruptured AVM decreased after publication of ARUBA results.

METHODS

We used the Nationwide Readmissions Database to assess trends in interventional AVM management in patients ≥18 years of age from 2010 through 2015. Unruptured brain AVMs were identified using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 747.81 and excluding any patient with a diagnosis of intracranial hemorrhage. Our primary outcome was interventional AVM treatment, identified using ICD-9-CM procedure codes for surgical resection, endovascular therapy, and stereotactic radiosurgery. Join-point regression was used to assess trends in the incidence of interventional AVM management among adults from 2010 through 2015.

RESULTS

There was no significant U.S. population level change in unruptured brain AVM intervention rates before versus after ARUBA (p = 0.59), with the incidence of AVM intervention ranging from 8.0 to 9.2 per 10 million U.S. residents before the trial publication to 7.7-8.3 per 10 million afterwards.

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationally representative sample, we found no change in rates of interventional unruptured AVM management after publication of the ARUBA trial results.

Relationship between left atrial volume and ischemic stroke subtype

OBJECTIVE

Atrial cardiopathy without atrial fibrillation (AF) may be a potential cardiac source of embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Atrial volume is a feature of atrial cardiopathy, but the relationship between atrial volume and ESUS remains unclear.

METHODS

We compared left atrial volume among ischemic stroke subtypes in the Cornell Acute Stroke Academic Registry (CAESAR), which includes all patients with acute ischemic stroke at our hospital since 2011. Stroke subtype was determined by neurologists per the TOAST classification and consensus ESUS definition. Left atrial volume index (LAVI) was obtained directly from our echocardiography image system (Xcelera, Philips Healthcare). We used t-tests and analysis of variance for unadjusted comparisons and targeted minimum loss-based estimation for comparisons adjusted for demographics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 2116 patients in CAESAR from 2011 to 2016, 1293 had LAVI measurements. LAVI varied across subtypes (P < 0.001) from 48.8 (±30.0) mL/m² in cardioembolic strokes to 30.3 (±10.5) mL/m² in small-vessel strokes. LAVI was larger in ESUS (33.3 ± 13.6 mL/m² ) than in small- or large-vessel stroke (30.9 ± 10.7 mL/m² ) (P = 0.01). The association between LAVI and ESUS persisted after the adjustment for demographics and comorbidities: a 10 mL/m² increase in LAVI was associated with a 4.4% increase in ESUS probability (95% CI, 2.3%-6.4%). Results were similar after excluding patients with AF during post-discharge heart-rhythm monitoring.

INTERPRETATION

We found larger left atria among patients with ESUS versus non-cardioembolic stroke. There was significant overlap in left atrial size between ESUS and non-cardioembolic stroke, highlighting that many ESUS cases are not cardioembolic.

Statistical inference for data-adaptive doubly robust estimators with survival outcomes

The consistency of doubly robust estimators relies on the consistent estimation of at least one of two nuisance regression parameters. In moderate-to-large dimensions, the use of flexible data-adaptive regression estimators may aid in achieving this consistency. However, n^1/2 -consistency of doubly robust estimators is not guaranteed if one of the nuisance estimators is inconsistent. In this paper, we present a doubly robust estimator for survival analysis with the novel property that it converges to a Gaussian variable at an n^1/2 -rate for a large class of data-adaptive estimators of the nuisance parameters, under the only assumption that at least one of them is consistently estimated at an n^1/4 -rate. This result is achieved through the adaptation of recent ideas in semiparametric inference, which amount to (i) Gaussianizing (ie, making asymptotically linear) a drift term that arises in the asymptotic analysis of the doubly robust estimator and (ii) using cross-fitting to avoid entropy conditions on the nuisance estimators. We present the formula of the asymptotic variance of the estimator, which allows for the computation of doubly robust confidence intervals and p values. We illustrate the finite-sample properties of the estimator in simulation studies and demonstrate its use in a phase III clinical trial for estimating the effect of a novel therapy for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer.

Improved precision in the analysis of randomized trials with survival outcomes, without assuming proportional hazards

We present a new estimator of the restricted mean survival time in randomized trials where there is right censoring that may depend on treatment and baseline variables. The proposed estimator leverages prognostic baseline variables to obtain equal or better asymptotic precision compared to traditional estimators. Under regularity conditions and random censoring within strata of treatment and baseline variables, the proposed estimator has the following features: (i) it is interpretable under violations of the proportional hazards assumption; (ii) it is consistent and at least as precise as the Kaplan-Meier and inverse probability weighted estimators, under identifiability conditions; (iii) it remains consistent under violations of independent censoring (unlike the Kaplan-Meier estimator) when either the censoring or survival distributions, conditional on covariates, are estimated consistently; and (iv) it achieves the nonparametric efficiency bound when both of these distributions are consistently estimated. We illustrate the performance of our method using simulations based on resampling data from a completed, phase 3 randomized clinical trial of a new surgical treatment for stroke; the proposed estimator achieves a 12% gain in relative efficiency compared to the Kaplan-Meier estimator. The proposed estimator has potential advantages over existing approaches for randomized trials with time-to-event outcomes, since existing methods either rely on model assumptions that are untenable in many applications, or lack some of the efficiency and consistency properties (i)-(iv). We focus on estimation of the restricted mean survival time, but our methods may be adapted to estimate any treatment effect measure defined as a smooth contrast between the survival curves for each study arm. We provide R code to implement the estimator.

Reversible Functional Changes Evoked by Anodal Epidural Direct Current Electrical Stimulation of the Rat Auditory Cortex

Rat auditory cortex was subjected to 0.1 mA anodal direct current in seven 10-min sessions on alternate days. Based on the well-known auditory cortex control of olivocochlear regulation through corticofugal projections, auditory brainstem responses (ABRs) were recorded as an indirect test of the effectiveness and reversibility of the multisession protocol of epidural stimulation. Increases of 20-30 dB ABR auditory thresholds shown after epidural stimulation reverted back to control levels 10 min after a single session. However, increases in thresholds revert 4 days after multisession stimulation. Less changes in wave amplitudes and threshold shifts were shown in ABR recorded contralaterally to the electrically stimulated side of the brain. To assess tissue effects of epidural electric stimulation on the brain cortex, well characterized functional anatomical markers of glial cells (GFAP/astrocytes and Iba1/microglial cells) and neurons (c-Fos) were analyzed in alternate serial sections by quantitative immunocytochemistry. Restricted astroglial and microglial reactivity was observed within the cytoarchitectural limits of the auditory cortex. However, interstitial GFAP overstaining was also observed in the ventricular surface and around blood vessels, thus supporting a potential global electrolytic stimulation of the brain. These results correlate with extensive changes in the distribution of c-Fos immunoreactive neurons among layers along sensory cortices after multisession stimulation. Quantitative immunocytochemical analysis supported this idea by showing a significant increase in the number of positive neurons in supragranular layers and a decrease in layer 6 with no quantitative changes detected in layer 5. Our data indicate that epidural stimulation of the auditory cortex induces a reversible decrease in hearing sensitivity due to local, restricted epidural stimulation. A global plastic response of the sensory cortices, also reported here, may be related to electrolytic effects of electric currents.

Effect of Clinical History on Interpretation of Computed Tomography for Acute Stroke

Objective

We assessed whether providing detailed clinical information alongside computed tomography (CT) images improves their interpretation for acute stroke.

Methods

Using the prospective Cornell AcutE Stroke Academic Registry, we randomly selected 100 patients who underwent noncontrast head CT within 6 hours of transient ischemic attack or minor acute ischemic stroke and underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) within 6 hours of the CT. Three radiologist investigators evaluated each of the 100 CT studies twice, once with and once without accompanying information on medical history, signs, and symptoms. In random sequence, each study was interpreted in one condition (ie, with or without detailed accompanying information) and then after a 4-week washout period, in the opposite condition. Using MRI diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) as the reference standard, we classified CT interpretations as correct (true positives or negatives) or incorrect (false positives or negatives). We used logistic regression with sandwich estimators to compare the proportion of correct interpretations.

Results

In patients with DWI-defined infarcts, acute ischemia was called on 20% of CTs with detailed history and 18% without history. In patients without infarcts, the absence of ischemia was called on 77% of CTs with history and 77% without history. The proportion of correct interpretations of CTs accompanied by detailed clinical history (49%) did not differ significantly from those without history (47%; odds ratio: 1.1; 95% confidence interval: 0.8-1.4).

Conclusions

Reported findings on head CT for evaluation of suspected acute ischemic stroke were similar regardless of whether detailed clinical history was provided.

Targeted learning ensembles for optimal individualized treatment rules with time-to-event outcomes

We consider estimation of an optimal individualized treatment rule when a high-dimensional vector of baseline variables is available. Our optimality criterion is with respect to delaying the expected time to occurrence of an event of interest. We use semiparametric efficiency theory to construct estimators with properties such as double robustness. We propose two estimators of the optimal rule, which arise from considering two loss functions aimed at directly estimating the conditional treatment effect and recasting the problem in terms of weighted classification using the 0-1 loss function. Our estimated rules are ensembles that minimize the crossvalidated risk of a linear combination in a user-supplied library of candidate estimators. We prove oracle inequalities bounding the finite-sample excess risk of the estimator. The bounds depend on the excess risk of the oracle selector and a doubly robust term related to estimation of the nuisance parameters. We discuss the convergence rates of our estimator to the oracle selector, and illustrate our methods by analysis of a phase III randomized study testing the efficacy of a new therapy for the treatment of breast cancer.

Angiographic Blush after Mechanical Thrombectomy is Associated with Hemorrhagic Transformation of Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Risk factors for hemorrhagic transformation of ischemic stroke after mechanical thrombectomy (MT) are not well established. We conducted a study to determine if prominent angiographic cerebral vascularity following recanalization with thrombectomy (angiographic blush) is associated with hemorrhagic transformation.

METHODS

Using the Cornell AcutE Stroke Academic Registry, we identified stroke patients who had thrombectomy and achieved recanalization of anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion between 2012 and 2015. The exposure variable was presence of angiographic blush after recanalization, defined as capillary blush with or without early venous drainage. The primary outcome was volume of hemorrhagic transformation on brain imaging after thrombectomy, as determined by semiautomated volumetric analysis on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging among those adjudicated to have hemorrhagic conversion by neuroradiology investigators blinded to angiography results. Using a doubly robust estimator with propensity scores and outcome regression adjusting for demographics and known risk factors for hemorrhagic transformation, we evaluated whether angiographic blush after recanalization is associated with an increased volume of hemorrhagic transformation.

RESULTS

Among 48 eligible patients, 31 (64.6%) had angiographic blush and 26 (54.2%) had radiographic hemorrhagic transformation (mean volume, 7.6 ml). Patients with angiographic blush averaged lower thrombolysis in cerebral infarction scores and more often received intravenous thrombolysis. In adjusted analysis, angiographic blush was associated with an increased volume of hemorrhagic transformation: mean volume, 10.3ml (95% CI, 3.7-16.9 ml) with blush versus 1.8ml (95% Confidence Interval (CII = Confidence Interval), 0.1-3.4 ml) without (P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of angiographic blush after MT was independently associated with the volume of hemorrhagic transformation.

Modeling the Impact of Interhospital Transfer Network Design on Stroke Outcomes in a Large City

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We sought to model the effects of interhospital transfer network design on endovascular therapy eligibility and clinical outcomes of stroke because of large-vessel occlusion for the residents of a large city.

METHODS

We modeled 3 transfer network designs for New York City. In model A, patients were transferred from spoke hospitals to the closest hub hospitals with endovascular capabilities irrespective of hospital affiliation. In model B, which was considered the base case, patients were transferred to the closest affiliated hub hospitals. In model C, patients were transferred to the closest affiliated hospitals, and transfer times were adjusted to reflect full implementation of streamlined transfer protocols. Using Monte Carlo methods, we simulated the distributions of endovascular therapy eligibility and good functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score, 0-2) in these models.

RESULTS

In our models, 200 patients (interquartile range [IQR], 168-227) with a stroke amenable to endovascular therapy present to New York City spoke hospitals each year. Transferring patients to the closest hub hospital irrespective of affiliation (model A) resulted in 4 (IQR, 1-9) additional patients being eligible for endovascular therapy and an additional 1 (IQR, 0-2) patient achieving functional independence. Transferring patients only to affiliated hospitals while simulating full implementation of streamlined transfer protocols (model C) resulted in 17 (IQR, 3-41) additional patients being eligible for endovascular therapy and 3 (IQR, 1-8) additional patients achieving functional independence.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimizing acute stroke transfer networks resulted in clinically small changes in population-level stroke outcomes in a dense, urban area.

Estimating the Causal Impact of Proximity to Gold and Copper Mines on Respiratory Diseases in Chilean Children: An Application of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation

In a town located in a desert area of Northern Chile, gold and copper open-pit mining is carried out involving explosive processes. These processes are associated with increased dust exposure, which might affect children's respiratory health. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the causal attributable risk of living close to the mines on asthma or allergic rhinoconjunctivitis risk burden in children. Data on the prevalence of respiratory diseases and potential confounders were available from a cross-sectional survey carried out in 2009 among 288 (response: 69 % ) children living in the community. The proximity of the children's home addresses to the local gold and copper mine was calculated using geographical positioning systems. We applied targeted maximum likelihood estimation to obtain the causal attributable risk (CAR) for asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and both outcomes combined. Children living more than the first quartile away from the mines were used as the unexposed group. Based on the estimated CAR, a hypothetical intervention in which all children lived at least one quartile away from the copper mine would decrease the risk of rhinoconjunctivitis by 4.7 percentage points (CAR: - 4.7 ; 95 % confidence interval ( 95 % CI): - 8.4 ; - 0.11 ); and 4.2 percentage points (CAR: - 4.2 ; 95 % CI: - 7.9 ; - 0.05 ) for both outcomes combined. Overall, our results suggest that a hypothetical intervention intended to increase the distance between the place of residence of the highest exposed children would reduce the prevalence of respiratory disease in the community by around four percentage points. This approach could help local policymakers in the development of efficient public health strategies.

Identification of Agricultural Management Zones Through Clustering Algorithms with Thermal and Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Precision Agriculture entails the appropriate management of the inherent variability of soil and crops, resulting in an increase of economic benefits and a reduction of environmental impact. However, site-specific treatments require maps of the soil variability to identify areas of land that share similar properties. In order to produce these maps, we propose a cost-efficient method that combines clustering algorithms with publicly available satellite imagery. The method does not require exploring the parcels with any special equipment or taking samples of the soil for laboratory analysis. The proposed method was tested in a case study for three vineyard parcels with topographical dissimilarities. The study compares different spectral and thermal bands from the Landsat 8 satellite as well as vegetation and moisture indices to determine which one produces the best clustering. The experimental results seem promising for identification of agricultural management zones. The findings suggest that thermal bands produce better clustering than those based on the NDVI index.

Second-Order Inference for the Mean of a Variable Missing at Random

We present a second-order estimator of the mean of a variable subject to missingness, under the missing at random assumption. The estimator improves upon existing methods by using an approximate second-order expansion of the parameter functional, in addition to the first-order expansion employed by standard doubly robust methods. This results in weaker assumptions about the convergence rates necessary to establish consistency, local efficiency, and asymptotic linearity. The general estimation strategy is developed under the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework. We present a simulation comparing the sensitivity of the first and second-order estimators to the convergence rate of the initial estimators of the outcome regression and missingness score. In our simulation, the second-order TMLE always had a coverage probability equal or closer to the nominal value 0.95, compared to its first-order counterpart. In the best-case scenario, the proposed second-order TMLE had a coverage probability of 0.86 when the first-order TMLE had a coverage probability of zero. We also present a novel first-order estimator inspired by a second-order expansion of the parameter functional. This estimator only requires one-dimensional smoothing, whereas implementation of the second-order TMLE generally requires kernel smoothing on the covariate space. The first-order estimator proposed is expected to have improved finite sample performance compared to existing first-order estimators. In the best-case scenario of our simulation study, the novel first-order TMLE improved the coverage probability from 0 to 0.90. We provide an illustration of our methods using a publicly available dataset to determine the effect of an anticoagulant on health outcomes of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. We provide R code implementing the proposed estimator.

Update in Infectious Diseases 2017

Antimicrobial resistance in complex models of continuous infection is a current issue. The update 2017 course addresses about microbiological, epidemiological and clinical aspects useful for a current approach to infectious disease. During the last year, nosocomial pneumonia approach guides, recommendations for management of yeast and filamentous fungal infections, review papers on the empirical approach to peritonitis and extensive guidelines on stewardship have been published. HIV infection is being treated before and more intensively. The implementation of molecular biology, spectrometry and inmunology to traditional techniques of staining and culture achieve a better and faster microbiological diagnosis. Finally, the infection is increasingly integrated, assessing non-antibiotic aspects in the treatment.

Doubly robust inference for targeted minimum loss-based estimation in randomized trials with missing outcome data

Missing outcome data is a crucial threat to the validity of treatment effect estimates from randomized trials. The outcome distributions of participants with missing and observed data are often different, which increases bias. Causal inference methods may aid in reducing the bias and improving efficiency by incorporating baseline variables into the analysis. In particular, doubly robust estimators incorporate 2 nuisance parameters: the outcome regression and the missingness mechanism (ie, the probability of missingness conditional on treatment assignment and baseline variables), to adjust for differences in the observed and unobserved groups that can be explained by observed covariates. To consistently estimate the treatment effect, one of these nuisance parameters must be consistently estimated. Traditionally, nuisance parameters are estimated using parametric models, which often precludes consistency, particularly in moderate to high dimensions. Recent research on missing data has focused on data-adaptive estimation to help achieve consistency, but the large sample properties of such methods are poorly understood. In this article, we discuss a doubly robust estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under data-adaptive estimation of the nuisance parameters. We provide a formula for an asymptotically exact confidence interval under minimal assumptions. We show that our proposed estimator has smaller finite-sample bias compared to standard doubly robust estimators. We present a simulation study demonstrating the enhanced performance of our estimators in terms of bias, efficiency, and coverage of the confidence intervals. We present the results of an illustrative example: a randomized, double-blind phase 2/3 trial of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected persons.

Annual Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel Worldwide. An Integration of ISOCORRAG, ICP/UNECE and MICAT Databases

In the 1980s, three ambitious international programmes on atmospheric corrosion (ISOCORRAG, ICP/UNECE and MICAT), involving the participation of a total of 38 countries on four continents, Europe, America, Asia and Oceania, were launched. Though each programme has its own particular characteristics, the similarity of the basic methodologies used makes it possible to integrate the databases obtained in each case. This paper addresses such an integration with the aim of establishing simple universal damage functions (DF) between first year carbon steel corrosion in the different atmospheres and available environmental variables, both meteorological (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation (P), and time of wetness (TOW)) and pollution (SO₂ and NaCl). In the statistical processing of the data, it has been chosen to differentiate between marine atmospheres and those in which the chloride deposition rate is insignificant (<3 mg/m².d). In the DF established for non-marine atmospheres a great influence of the SO₂ content in the atmosphere was seen, as well as lesser effects by the meteorological parameters of RH and T. Both NaCl and SO₂ pollutants, in that order, are seen to be the most influential variables in marine atmospheres, along with a smaller impact of TOW.

Marine Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel: A Review

The atmospheric corrosion of carbon steel is an extensive topic that has been studied over the years by many researchers. However, until relatively recently, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the action of marine chlorides. Corrosion in coastal regions is a particularly relevant issue due the latter's great importance to human society. About half of the world's population lives in coastal regions and the industrialisation of developing countries tends to concentrate production plants close to the sea. Until the start of the 21st century, research on the basic mechanisms of rust formation in Cl--rich atmospheres was limited to just a small number of studies. However, in recent years, scientific understanding of marine atmospheric corrosion has advanced greatly, and in the authors' opinion a sufficient body of knowledge has been built up in published scientific papers to warrant an up-to-date review of the current state-of-the-art and to assess what issues still need to be addressed. That is the purpose of the present review. After a preliminary section devoted to basic concepts on atmospheric corrosion, the marine atmosphere, and experimentation on marine atmospheric corrosion, the paper addresses key aspects such as the most significant corrosion products, the characteristics of the rust layers formed, and the mechanisms of steel corrosion in marine atmospheres. Special attention is then paid to important matters such as coastal-industrial atmospheres and long-term behaviour of carbon steel exposed to marine atmospheres. The work ends with a section dedicated to issues pending, noting a series of questions in relation with which greater research efforts would seem to be necessary.

Prick test: evolution towards automated reading

The prick test is one of the most common medical methods for diagnosing allergies, and it has been carried out in a similar and laborious manner over many decades. In an attempt to standardize the reading of the test, many researchers have tried to automate the process of measuring the allergic reactions found by developing systems and algorithms based on multiple technologies. This work reviews the techniques for automatic wheal measurement with the aim of pointing out their advantages and disadvantages and the progress in the field. Furthermore, it provides a classification scheme for the different technologies applied. The works discussed herein provide evidence that significant challenges still exist for the development of an automatic wheal measurement system that not only helps allergists in their medical practice but also allows for the standardization of the reading and data exchange. As such, the aim of the work was to serve as guideline for the development of a proper and feasible system.

Comparison of glucose conversion to 5-HMF using different modified mordenites in ionic liquid and biphasic media

Modified mordenites have been used in the direct conversion of glucose into 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF) in two different media: the ionic liquid 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide ([BMIM]Br) and a biphasic system composed of water–acetone and ethyl acetate.

The Origin of The Acheulean: The 1.7 Million-Year-Old Site of FLK West, Olduvai Gorge (Tanzania)

The appearance of the Acheulean is one of the hallmarks of human evolution. It represents the emergence of a complex behavior, expressed in the recurrent manufacture of large-sized tools, with standardized forms, implying more advance forethought and planning by hominins than those required by the precedent Oldowan technology. The earliest known evidence of this technology dates back to c. 1.7 Ma. and is limited to two sites (Kokiselei [Kenya] and Konso [Ethiopia]), both of which lack functionally-associated fauna. The functionality of these earliest Acheulean assemblages remains unknown. Here we present the discovery of another early Acheulean site also dating to c. 1.7 Ma from Olduvai Gorge. This site provides evidence of the earliest steps in developing the Acheulean technology and is the oldest Acheulean site in which stone tools occur spatially and functionally associated with the exploitation of fauna. Simple and elaborate large-cutting tools (LCT) and bifacial handaxes co-exist at FLK West, showing that complex cognition was present from the earliest stages of the Acheulean. Here we provide a detailed technological study and evidence of the use of these tools on the butchery and consumption of fauna, probably by early Homo erectus sensu lato.