Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36_{-4}^{+5}M_{⊙} and 29_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙}; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be <0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410_{-180}^{+160}  Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03} assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610  deg^{2}, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙} and spin 0.67_{-0.07}^{+0.05}. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 σ.

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 σ.

Tests of General Relativity with GW150914

The LIGO detection of GW150914 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large-velocity, highly nonlinear regime, and to witness the final merger of the binary and the excitation of uniquely relativistic modes of the gravitational field. We carry out several investigations to determine whether GW150914 is consistent with a binary black-hole merger in general relativity. We find that the final remnant's mass and spin, as determined from the low-frequency (inspiral) and high-frequency (postinspiral) phases of the signal, are mutually consistent with the binary black-hole solution in general relativity. Furthermore, the data following the peak of GW150914 are consistent with the least-damped quasinormal mode inferred from the mass and spin of the remnant black hole. By using waveform models that allow for parametrized general-relativity violations during the inspiral and merger phases, we perform quantitative tests on the gravitational-wave phase in the dynamical regime and we determine the first empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. We constrain the graviton Compton wavelength, assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum in the same way as particles with mass, obtaining a 90%-confidence lower bound of 10^{13}  km. In conclusion, within our statistical uncertainties, we find no evidence for violations of general relativity in the genuinely strong-field regime of gravity.

GW150914: Implications for the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Binary Black Holes

The LIGO detection of the gravitational wave transient GW150914, from the inspiral and merger of two black holes with masses ≳30M_{⊙}, suggests a population of binary black holes with relatively high mass. This observation implies that the stochastic gravitational-wave background from binary black holes, created from the incoherent superposition of all the merging binaries in the Universe, could be higher than previously expected. Using the properties of GW150914, we estimate the energy density of such a background from binary black holes. In the most sensitive part of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo band for stochastic backgrounds (near 25 Hz), we predict Ω_{GW}(f=25  Hz)=1.1_{-0.9}^{+2.7}×10^{-9} with 90% confidence. This prediction is robustly demonstrated for a variety of formation scenarios with different parameters. The differences between models are small compared to the statistical uncertainty arising from the currently poorly constrained local coalescence rate. We conclude that this background is potentially measurable by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors operating at their projected final sensitivity.

GW150914: The Advanced LIGO Detectors in the Era of First Discoveries

Following a major upgrade, the two advanced detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) held their first observation run between September 2015 and January 2016. With a strain sensitivity of 10^{-23}/sqrt[Hz] at 100 Hz, the product of observable volume and measurement time exceeded that of all previous runs within the first 16 days of coincident observation. On September 14, 2015, the Advanced LIGO detectors observed a transient gravitational-wave signal determined to be the coalescence of two black holes [B. P. Abbott et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016)], launching the era of gravitational-wave astronomy. The event, GW150914, was observed with a combined signal-to-noise ratio of 24 in coincidence by the two detectors. Here, we present the main features of the detectors that enabled this observation. At full sensitivity, the Advanced LIGO detectors are designed to deliver another factor of 3 improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio for binary black hole systems similar in mass to GW150914.

Abstract PD2-02: NEO-EXCEL phase III neoadjuvant trial of pre-operative exemestane or letrozole +/- celecoxib in the treatment of ER positive postmenopausal early breast cancer

COX2 has been implicated in breast tumorigenesis, tumour proliferation & invasion. The role of COX2 in carcinogenesis is thought to be related to its abilities to increase production of prostaglandins, convert pro-carcinogens to carcinogens, inhibit apoptosis, promote angiogenesis, modulate inflammation & immune function & increase tumour cell invasiveness. COX2 inhibition may synergise with aromatase inhibition in controlling endocrine responsive breast cancer. The COX2 product prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) & cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL6) can up regulate aromatase expression suggesting that aromatase inhibition may be more effective in combination with a COX2 inhibitor. There may be additional COX2 mediated anticancer activity. The hypothesis addressed is that activity of aromatase inhibitors(AI) as neoadjuvant endocrine therapy for early breast cancer may be enhanced by the addition of a COX2 inhibitor.

TRIAL OBJECTIVES

To determine whether the activity of AIs as neo-adjuvant endocrine therapy for ER positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women may be enhanced by the addition of the selective COX2 inhibitor celecoxib.

TRIAL DESIGN

Prospective phase III multicentre randomised trial. Patients were randomised to receive 16 weeks of exemestane 25 mg daily or letrozole 2.5 mg daily (open label) and celecoxib 400 mg twice daily or matched placebo (double blinded). Translational research tumour samples were collected before, during & after therapy.

KEY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Post menopausal, ER positive, invasive cancer, 2cms or greater with calipers & visible on USS.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Objective clinical response to neoadjuvant treatment by RECIST criteria.

RESULTS

Primary Outcome; Response to treatment has been calculated for 266 patients (Table 1). Response rate was 73% in the celecoxib arm & 55% in the placebo arm (p=0.0022). The response rates 4 arm comparison are shown in Table 2. After adjustment for AI effect the significant difference in response rates remained (p=0.0023); the difference in response rates was greater in the exemestane treated group (29%) compared to the letrozole group (7%) although heterogeneity between AI arms was statistically non-significant (p=0.06).

Table 1 Primary Outcome Results: response ratesOUTCOMEPLACEBO N (%)CELECOXIB N (%)TOTAL N (%)X2statisticP-valueRESPONSE73(55)97(73%)170 (64%)9.38820.0022NO RESPONSE60 (45%)36 (27%)96 (36%)  TOTAL133133266  

Table 2: Response Rates 4 Arm Comparison EXEMESTANELETROZOLERESPONSEPLACEBO n(%)CELECOXIB n(%)TOTAL n(%)PLACEBO n(%)CELECOXIB n(%)TOTAL n(%)RESPONSE33 (49)52(78)85(63)40(61)45(68)85(64)NO RESPONSE34(51)15(22)49(37)26(39)21(32)47(36)TOTAL67671346666132

Secondary outcome; There was an USS response rate of 42% v 37% for celecoxib & placebo arms respectively (p=0.2513)

CONCLUSION

The addition of the COX2 inhibitor celecoxib to an AI significantly & substantially increased the clinical response from 55% to 73%. Effect on tumour size assessed with USS is less marked with a non-significant increase in responses from 37% to 42%.

This work was supported by CRUK: CRUK/06/005 and Pfizer.

Citation Format: Rea D, Francis A, Poole C, Brookes C, Stein R, Bartlett J, Dunn J, Canney P, Sutton R, Daoud R, Hallissey M, Achuthan R, Grant M, Babrah J, Smith S, Fraser J, Desai A, Al Dubaisi M, Patel A, Bristol J, Chandrasekharan S, Prest C, Jewkes A. NEO-EXCEL phase III neoadjuvant trial of pre-operative exemestane or letrozole +/- celecoxib in the treatment of ER positive postmenopausal early breast cancer. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD2-02.

Abstract OT2-02-04: The LORIS trial: A multicentre, randomised phase III trial of standard surgery versus active monitoring in women with newly diagnosed low risk ductal carcinoma in situ

Background: The independent review of the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme reported (The Lancet, Volume 380, Issue 9855, Pages 1778 - 1786, 17 November 2012) on the benefits & harms of breast screening. It concluded that breast screening saves lives & acknowledged overtreatment. It encouraged randomized trials to elucidate the appropriate treatment of screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) to gain a better understanding of its natural history. The LORIS trial addresses overtreatment of low & low/Intermediate grade screen detected (low risk) DCIS by randomizing patients to standard surgical treatment or active monitoring.

Trial Design: LORIS is a phase III, multicentre, 2 arm study, with a 2 year feasibility phase, in patients confirmed to have low risk DCIS by central pathology review. Patients are randomised to standard surgery or active monitoring with annual mammography. Patients will be followed up for a minimum of 10 years.

Key Eligibility Criteria:

1) Female 46 years or over.

2) Screen-detected or incidental microcalcification (with no mass lesion clinically or on imaging)

3) Low risk DCIS on large volume vacuum-assisted biopsy, confirmed by central pathology review

4) Patient fit to undergo surgery

Specific Aims: The LORIS Trial aims to establish whether patients with newly diagnosed low risk DCIS can safely avoid surgery without detriment to their wellbeing (psychological and physical) & whether those patients that do require surgery can be identified by pathological and radiological means.

Primary endpoint: Ipsilateral invasive breast cancer free survival rate at 5 years

Secondary endpoints: Overall survival; mastectomy rate; time to mastectomy; time to surgery; patient reported outcomes & health resource utilisation.

A digital image data repository and tissue bank provide a prospective resource for both translational & imaging studies.

Statistical Methods: A total of 932 patients will be randomized to a non-inferiority design to test the null hypothesis that active monitoring of women diagnosed with low risk DCIS is not non-inferior in terms of 5 year ipsilateral invasive breast cancer free survival (iiBCFS) rate compared to treatment with surgery. The iiBCFS rate will be compared across the two arms on a per protocol and intent-to-treat basis, using a 1-sided (α=0.05) log-rank test for non-inferiority. The iiBCFS rate is assumed to be 97.5% in the surgery arm giving 80% power to exclude a difference of more than 2.5% in the active monitoring arm at 5 years.

Present Accrual and Target Accrual: 21 UK centres are open & the feasibility phase of the trial is recruiting to target. The web based central pathology review process is functioning well with a one week maximum turn around. A further 40 centres will be opened on completion of the feasibility phase.

Contact: LORIS@trials.bham.ac.uk

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research [Health Technology Assessment Programme] (project number 11/36/16)

Department of Health Disclaimer: The views & opinions expressed therein are those of the authors & do not necessarily reflect those of the Health Technology Assessment Programme, NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health.

Citation Format: Francis A, Fallowfield L, Bartlett J, Thomas J, Wallis M, Hanby A, Pinder S, Evans A, Billingham L, Brookes C, Dodwell D, Fairbrother P, Gaunt C, Jenkins V, Matthews L, Pirrie S, Reed M, Roberts T, Wilcox M, Young J, Rea D. The LORIS trial: A multicentre, randomised phase III trial of standard surgery versus active monitoring in women with newly diagnosed low risk ductal carcinoma in situ. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT2-02-04.

Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of 1.0×10(-21). It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203,000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1σ. The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410(-180)(+160)  Mpc corresponding to a redshift z=0.09(-0.04)(+0.03). In the source frame, the initial black hole masses are 36(-4)(+5)M⊙ and 29(-4)(+4)M⊙, and the final black hole mass is 62(-4)(+4)M⊙, with 3.0(-0.5)(+0.5)M⊙c(2) radiated in gravitational waves. All uncertainties define 90% credible intervals. These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger.

Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo

We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 deg2 to 20 deg2 will require at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of ∼ 2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should the third LIGO detector be relocated to India as expected, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.

Green energy from marine algae: biogas production and composition from the anaerobic digestion of Irish seaweed species

Marine algae have emerged as an alternative feedstock for the production of a number of renewable fuels, including biogas. In addition to energy potential, other characteristics make them attractive as an energy source, including their ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2), higher productivity rates than land-based crops and the lack of water use or land competition. For Ireland, biofuels from marine algae can play an important role by reducing imports of fossil fuels as well as providing the necessary energy in rural communities. In this study, five potential seaweed species common in Irish waters, Saccorhiza polyschides, Ulva sp., Laminaria digitata, Fucus serratus and Saccharina latissima, were co-digested individually with bovine slurry. Batch reactors of 120ml and 1000ml were set up and incubated at 35 degrees C to investigate their suitability for production of biogas. Digesters fed with S. latissima produced the maximum methane yield (335 ml g volatile solids(-1) (g(VS)(-1) followed by S. polyschides with 255 ml g(VS)(-1). L. digitata produced 246ml g(VS)(-1) and the lowest yields were from the green seaweed Ulva sp. 191ml g(VS)(-1). The methane and CO2 percentages ranged between 50-72% and 10-45%, respectively. The results demonstrated that the seaweed species investigated are good feedstocks candidates for the production of biogas and methane as a source of energy. Their use on a large-scale process will require further investigation to increase yields and reduce production costs.

Selecting breast cancer patients for chemotherapy: the opening of the UK OPTIMA trial

The mortality from breast cancer has improved steadily over the past two decades, in part because of the increased use of more effective adjuvant therapies. Thousands of women are routinely treated with intensive chemotherapy, which can be unpleasant, is expensive and is occasionally hazardous. Oncologists have long known that some of these women may not need treatment, either because they have a low risk of relapse or because they have tumour biology that makes them less sensitive to chemotherapy and more suitable for early adjuvant endocrine therapy. There is an urgent need to improve patient selection so that chemotherapy is restricted to those patients who will benefit from it. Here we review the emerging technologies that are available for improving patient selection for chemotherapy. We describe the OPTIMA trial, which has just opened to recruitment in the UK, is the latest addition to trials in this area, and is the first to focus on the relative cost-effectiveness of alternate predictive assays.

Abstract P1-13-03: Mature analysis of UK Taxotere as Adjuvant Chemotherapy (TACT) trial (CRUK 01/001); effects of treatment and characterisation of patterns of breast cancer relapse

Introduction: TACT, an investigator-led study in 4162 women with node positive (N+ve) or high risk node negative (N-ve) early breast cancer (EBC), is the largest taxane trial unconfounded by treatment (trt) duration. At principal analysis, with 5 years follow-up (fup), no evidence of improved disease-free survival (DFS) was observed by switching to 4 cycles of docetaxel (D) after 4 cycles of FEC (Ellis, Lancet 2009). Results were provocative in suggesting differential effects according to ER & HER2 status. Longer fup provides opportunity to detect emergence of late trt effects overall & within phenotypic subgroups & explore patterns of recurrence, by tumor characteristics.

Patients & methods: TACT recruited women with histologically confirmed completely resected invasive EBC from 104 centers (UK (103), Belgium (1)) between 02/2001 & 07/2003. Centers chose FEC (600/60/600 mg/m2 q3wk × 8) or E-CMF (E 100mg/m2 q3wk × 4 → CMF 100mg/m2 PO d1-14 or 600mg/m2 IV d1&8/40/600 mg/m2 q4wk × 4) as their control, reflecting standard UK practice. Patients (pts) were randomized to FEC-D (FEC q3wk × 4 → D 100 mg/m2 q3wk × 4) or control. 2523 pts were from FEC centers (FEC = 1265: FEC-D = 1258) & 1639 from E-CMF centers (E-CMF = 824; FEC-D = 815). Endocrine therapy was given for 5 years. Few pts received HER2 directed therapy; 589 pts had unknown HER2 status. Median fup is now 97.5 months; this analysis updates DFS & overall survival in the ITT population. It also explores patterns of relapse by phenotypic & clinical characteristics. Analyses of trt effect are stratified by ER status due to issues of non-proportionality of hazard associated with length of fup.

Results: DFS events have been reported for 1329 pts (FEC-D=640, Control=689) giving an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) & 95%CI (stratified by control regimen & ER status) of 0.93 (0.83, 1.03) overall; p = 0.16 in favor of FEC-D & for ER+ve/HER2-ve of 0.99 (0.84, 1.17), for ER+ve/HER2+ve) 0.97 (0.73, 1.30), for ER-ve/HER2+ve 0.74 (0.53, 1.03), & ER-ve/HER2-ve 0.93 (0.73, 1.17). 1017 patients have died (FEC-D=500, Control=517); unadjusted HR=0.98 (95%CI: 0.86, 1.10); p = 0.69 with intercurrent deaths (prior to distant relapse) reported for 80 pts (FEC-D=40, Control=40).

Annual event rates show different pattern of disease relapse by phenotypic subgroup

An European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase I study of lapatinib and docetaxel as neoadjuvant treatment for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive locally-advanced/inflammatory or large operable breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Lapatinib is an effective anti-HER2 therapy in advanced breast cancer and docetaxel is one of the most active agents in breast cancer. Combining these agents in pre-treated patients with metastatic disease had previously proved challenging, so the primary objective of this study aimed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in treatment-naive patients, by identifying acute dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) during cycle 1 in the first part of a phases 1-2 neoadjuvant European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with large operable or locally-advanced HER2 positive breast cancer were treated with continuous lapatinib, and docetaxel every 21days for 4 cycles. Dose levels (DLs) were: 1000/75, 1250/75, 1000/85, 1250/85, 1000/100 and 1250/100 (mg/day)/(mg/m(2)).

RESULTS

Twenty-one patients were included. Two DLTs occurred at dose level 5 (1000/100); one grade 4 neutropenia ≥ 7days and one febrile neutropenia. A further 3 patients were therefore treated at the same dose with prophylactic granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), and 3 patients at dose level 6. No further DLTs were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our recommended dose for phase II is lapatinib 1000mg/day and docetaxel 100mg/m(2) with G-CSF in HER2 positive non-metastatic breast cancer. The dose of lapatinib should have been 1250mg/day but we were mindful of the high rate of treatment discontinuation in GeparQuinto with lapatinib 1250mg/day combined with docetaxel. No grade 3-4 diarrhoea was observed. Pharmacodynamics analysis suggests that concomitant medications altering P-glycoprotein activity (in addition to lapatinib) can modify toxicity, including non-haematological toxicities. This needs verification in larger trials, where it may contribute to understanding the sources of variability in clinical toxicity and treatment discontinuation.

A single-nucleotide polymorphism in the fetal catechol-O-methyltransferase gene is associated with spontaneous preterm birth in African Americans

Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) activity has been reported to be higher in African Americans (AA) than Caucasians (Cau). COMT converts 2- and 4-hydroxy (OH) estrogens to 2- and 4-methoxyestrogens, respectively, and can increase estrogenic milieu locally in tissues. To assess whether the increased incidence of preterm birth (PTB) among AA women is associated with single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the COMT gene, we examined variations in maternal and fetal COMT genes and their association with pregnancy outcomes (term vs preterm pregnancies) using 4 functional SNPs: rs4633, rs4680, rs4818, and rs6269 in both AA and Cau. We analyzed samples from 267 AA women (191 term and 76 preterm pregnancies) and 339 Cau (194 term and 145 preterm pregnancies) in this study. The results showed a significant difference (P < .05) in allele and genotype frequencies between term and preterm AA and Cau women in 3 SNPs in both maternal and fetal DNA. The analysis revealed that in AA fetal COMT genes, SNP rs4818 is associated with PTB at the allele (C; P < .001), genotype (C/C; P < .01), and 2- (P < .03) and 3 (P < .04)-window haplotype levels. Multidimensionality reduction analysis also showed a significant (P < .01) association between rs4818 and PTB. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that a synonymous polymorphism, rs4818 in the fetal COMT gene, is associated with PTB in AA.