On the calculation of the reliability of general load sharing systems

Harlow et al. (1983) have given a recursive formula which is fundamental for computing the bundle strength distribution under a general class of load sharing rules called monotone load sharing rules. As the bundle size increases, the formula becomes prohibitively complex and, by itself, does not give much insight into the relationship of the assumed load sharing rule to the overall strength distribution. In this paper, an algorithm is given which gives some additional insight into this relationship. Here it is shown how to explicitly compute the bundle strength survival distribution by using a new type of graph called the loading diagram. The graph is parallel in structure and recursive in nature and so would appear to lend itself to large-scale computation. In addition, the graph has an interesting property (which we refer to as the cancellation property) which is related to the asymptotics of the Weibull as a minimum stable law.

Total Positivity of Markov Chains and the Failure Rate Character of Some First Passage Times

It is shown that totally positive order 2 (TP2) properties of the infinitesimal generator of a continuous-time Markov chain with totally ordered state space carry over to the chain's transition distribution function. For chains with such properties, failure rate characteristics of the first passage times are established. For Markov chains with partially ordered state space, it is shown that the first passage times have an IFR distribution under a multivariate total positivity condition on the transition function.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease mortality in Canada, 1998 to 2013

BACKGROUND

Human prion diseases, known collectively as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), are fatal, infectious neurodegenerative disorders that occur in all human populations.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize national surveillance data for CJD in Canada between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2013.

METHODS

Detailed investigations were conducted of individual suspected CJD cases, with collaboration between Canadian health professionals and investigators affiliated with a central CJD surveillance registry operated by the Public Health Agency of Canada. Data were collected on the clinical profile, family history, and results of paraclinical and laboratory investigations, including post-mortem neuropathological examination.

RESULTS

A total of 662 deaths from definite and probable CJD were identified in Canadian residents during the study period, comprising 613 cases of sporadic CJD (92.6%), 43 cases of genetic prion disease (6.5%), 4 cases of iatrogenic CJD (0.6%), and 2 cases of variant CJD disease (0.3%). The overall crude mortality rate for sporadic CJD was 1.18 per million per year [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08,1.27]. Age-specific rates ranged from 0.05 [95% CI: 0.03,0.08] in persons under 50 years of age to 7.11 [95% CI: 6.20,8.11] in those aged 70 to 79. A significant net upward trend in age-adjusted rates was observed over the study period. Standardized mortality ratios, calculated for 10 individual Canadian provinces with reference to national average mortality rates, did not differ significantly from 1.0.

CONCLUSION

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease remains rare in Canada, although mortality rates vary by two orders of magnitude between older and younger age groups. The upward trend in age-standardized sporadic CJD mortality rate over the study period can be better accounted for by gradually improving case ascertainment than by a real increase in incidence.

Obesity prevention in early life: an opportunity to better support the role of Maternal and Child Health Nurses in Australia

Background

Because parents with young children access primary health care services frequently, a key opportunity arises for Maternal and Child Health (MCH) nurses to actively work with families to support healthy infant feeding practices and lifestyle behaviours. However, little is known regarding the extent to which MCH nurses promote obesity prevention practices and how such practices could be better supported.

Methods

This mixed methods study involved a survey of 56 MCH nurses (response rate 84.8 %), 16 of whom participated in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Both components aimed to examine the extent to which nurses addressed healthy infant feeding practices, healthy eating, active play and limiting sedentary behavior during routine consultations with young children 0–5 years. Key factors influencing such practices and how they could be best supported were also investigated. All data were collected from September to December 2013. Survey data were analysed descriptively and triangulated with qualitative interview findings, the analysis of which was guided by grounded theory principles.

Results

Although nurses reported measuring height/length and weight in most consultations, almost one quarter (22.2 %) reported never/rarely using growth charts to identify infants or children at risk of overweight or obesity. This reflected a reluctance to raise the issue of weight with parents and a lack of confidence in how to address it. The majority of nurses reported providing advice on aspects of infant feeding relevant to obesity prevention at most consultations, with around a third (37 %) routinely provided advice on formula preparation. Less than half of nurses routinely promoted active play and only 30 % discussed limiting sedentary behaviour such as TV viewing. Concerns about parental receptiveness and maintaining rapport were key barriers to more effective implementation.

Conclusion

While MCH nurses are well placed to address obesity prevention in early life, there is currently a missed public health opportunity. Improving nurse skills in behaviour change counseling will be key to increasing their confidence in raising sensitive lifestyle issues with parents to better integrate obesity prevention practices into normal MCH service delivery.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12912-015-0077-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

CT imaging for evaluation of calcium crystal deposition in the knee: initial experience from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) study

OBJECTIVE

Role of intra-articular calcium crystals in osteoarthritis (OA) is unclear. Imaging modalities used to date for its evaluation have limitations in their ability to fully characterize intra-articular crystal deposition. Since Computed Tomography (CT) imaging provides excellent visualization of bones and calcified tissue, in this pilot project we evaluated the utility of CT scan in describing intra-articular calcium crystal deposition in the knees.

METHOD

We included 12 subjects with and four subjects without radiographic chondrocalcinosis in the most recent visit from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) study, which is a longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling older adults with or at risk for knee OA. All subjects underwent CT scans of bilateral knees. Each knee was divided into 25 subregions and each subregion was read for presence of calcium crystals by a musculoskeletal radiologist. To assess reliability, readings were repeated 4 weeks later.

RESULTS

CT images permitted visualization of 25 subregions with calcification within and around the tibio-femoral and patello-femoral joints in all 24 knees with radiographic chondrocalcinosis. Intra-articular calcification was seen universally including meniscal cartilage (most common site involved in 21/24 knees), hyaline cartilage, cruciate ligaments, medial collateral ligament and joint capsule. Readings showed good agreement for specific tissues involved with calcium deposition (kappa: 0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.80).

CONCLUSION

We found CT scan to be a useful and reliable tool for describing calcium crystal deposition in the knee and therefore potentially for studying role of calcium crystals in OA. We also confirmed that "chondrocalcinosis" is a misnomer because calcification is present ubiquitously.

In-utero infection with HIV-1 associated with suppressed lymphoproliferative responses at birth

In-utero exposure to HIV-1 may affect the immune system of the developing child and may induce HIV-1-specific immune responses, even in the absence of HIV-1 infection. We evaluated lymphoproliferative capacity at birth among 40 HIV-1-uninfected infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers and 10 infants who had acquired HIV-1 in utero. Cord blood mononuclear cells were assayed using [(3) H]-thymidine incorporation for proliferation in response to HIV-1 p55-gag and the control stimuli phytohaemagglutinin (PHA), Staphylococcus enterotoxin B (SEB) and allogeneic cells. In response to HIV-1 p55-gag, eight (20%) HIV-1-exposed, uninfected (EU) infants had a stimulation index (SI) ≥ 2 and three (30%) in-utero HIV-1 infected infants had SI ≥2. The frequency and magnitude of responses to HIV-1 p55-gag were low overall, and did not differ statistically between groups. However, proliferative responses to control stimuli were significantly higher in EU infants than in infants infected in utero, with a median SI in response to PHA of 123 [interquartile range (IQR) 77-231] versus 18 (IQR 4-86) between EU and infected infants, respectively (P < 0·001). Among infected infants, gestational maturity was associated with the strength of HIV-1 p55-gag response (P < 0·001); neither maternal nor infant HIV-1 viral load was associated. In summary, EU and HIV-1-infected infants mounted HIV-1-specific lymphoproliferative responses at similar rates (20-30%), and although global immune function was preserved among EU infants, neonatal immune responses were significantly compromised by HIV-1 infection. Such early lymphoproliferative compromise may, in part, explain rapid progression to AIDS and death among HIV-1-infected infants.