Intensity of space use reveals conditional sex-specific effects of prey and conspecific density on home range size

Home range (HR) size variation is often linked to resource abundance, with sex differences expected to relate to sex‐specific fitness consequences. However, studies generally fail to disentangle the effects of the two main drivers of HR size variation, food and conspecific density, and rarely consider how their relative influence change over spatiotemporal scales. We used location data from 77 Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) from a 16‐year Scandinavian study to examine HR sizes variation relative to prey and conspecific density at different spatiotemporal scales. By varying the isopleth parameter (intensity of use) defining the HR, we show that sex‐specific effects were conditional on the spatial scale considered. Males had larger HRs than females in all seasons. Females' total HR size declined as prey and conspecific density increased, whereas males' total HR was only affected by conspecific density. However, as the intensity of use within the HR increased (from 90% to 50% isopleth), the relationship between prey density and area showed opposing patterns for females and males; for females, the prey density effect was reduced, while for males, prey became increasingly important. Thus, prey influenced the size of key regions within male HRs, despite total HR size being independent of prey density. Males reduced their HR size during the mating season, likely to remain close to individual females in estrous. Females reduced their HR size postreproduction probably because of movement constrains imposed by dependent young. Our findings highlight the importance of simultaneously considering resources and intraspecific interactions as HR size determinants. We show that sex‐specific demands influence the importance of prey and conspecific density on space use at different spatiotemporal scales. Thus, unless a gradient of space use intensity is examined, factors not related to total HR size might be disregarded despite their importance in determining size of key regions within the HR.

Framing the relationship between people and nature in the context of European conservation

A key controversy in conservation is the framing of the relationship between people and nature. The extent to which the realms of nature and human culture are viewed as separate (dualistic view) or integrated is often discussed in the social sciences. To explore how this relationship is represented in the practice of conservation in Europe, we considered examples of cultural landscapes, wildlife (red deer, reindeer, horses), and protected area management. We found little support, for a dualistic worldview, where people and nature are regarded as separate in the traditional practice of conservation in Europe. The borders between nature and culture, wild and domestic, public land and private land, and between protected areas and the wider landscape were blurred and dynamic. The institutionalized (in practice and legislation) view is of an interactive mutualistic system in which humans and nature share the whole landscape. However, more dualistic ideals, such as wilderness and rewilding that are challenging established practices are expanding. In the context of modern day Europe, wilderness conservation and rewilding are not valid for the whole landscape, although it is possible to integrate some areas of low-intervention management into a wider matrix. A precondition for success is to recognize and plan for a plurality of values concerning the most valid approaches to conservation and to plan for this plurality at the landscape scale.

Recovery of large carnivores in Europe's modern human-dominated landscapes

The conservation of large carnivores is a formidable challenge for biodiversity conservation. Using a data set on the past and current status of brown bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo) in European countries, we show that roughly one-third of mainland Europe hosts at least one large carnivore species, with stable or increasing abundance in most cases in 21st-century records. The reasons for this overall conservation success include protective legislation, supportive public opinion, and a variety of practices making coexistence between large carnivores and people possible. The European situation reveals that large carnivores and people can share the same landscape.

The risks of learning: confounding detection and demographic trend when using count-based indices for population monitoring

Theory recognizes that a treatment of the detection process is required to avoid producing biased estimates of population rate of change. Still, one of three monitoring programmes on animal or plant populations is focused on simply counting individuals or other fixed visible structures, such as natal dens, nests, tree cavities. This type of monitoring design poses concerns about the possibility to respect the assumption of constant detection, as the information acquired in a given year about the spatial distribution of reproductive sites can provide a higher chance to detect the species in subsequent years. We developed an individual-based simulation model, which evaluates how the accumulation of knowledge about the spatial distribution of a population process can affect the accuracy of population growth rate estimates, when using simple count-based indices. Then, we assessed the relative importance of each parameter in affecting monitoring performance. We also present the case of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in southern Scandinavia as an example of a monitoring system with an intrinsic tendency to accumulate knowledge and increase detectability. When the occupation of a nest or den is temporally autocorrelated, the monitoring system is prone to increase its knowledge with time. This happens also when there is no intensification in monitoring effort and no change in the monitoring conditions. Such accumulated knowledge is likely to increase detection probability with time and can produce severe bias in the estimation of the rate and direction of population change over time. We recommend that a systematic sampling of the population process under study and an explicit treatment of the underlying detection process should be implemented whenever economic and logistical constraints permit, as failure to include detection probability in the estimation of population growth rate can lead to serious bias and severe consequences for management and conservation.

Activity patterns of Eurasian lynx are modulated by light regime and individual traits over a wide latitudinal range

The activity patterns of most terrestrial animals are regarded as being primarily influenced by light, although other factors, such as sexual cycle and climatic conditions, can modify the underlying patterns. However, most activity studies have been limited to a single study area, which in turn limit the variability of light conditions and other factors. Here we considered a range of variables that might potentially influence the activity of a large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx, in a network of studies conducted with identical methodology in different areas spanning latitudes from 49°7′N in central Europe to 70°00′N in northern Scandinavia. The variables considered both light conditions, ranging from a day with a complete day–night cycle to polar night and polar day, as well as individual traits of the animals. We analysed activity data of 38 individual free-ranging lynx equipped with GPS-collars with acceleration sensors, covering more than 11,000 lynx days. Mixed linear additive models revealed that the lynx activity level was not influenced by the daily daylight duration and the activity pattern was bimodal, even during polar night and polar day. The duration of the active phase of the activity cycle varied with the widening and narrowing of the photoperiod. Activity varied significantly with moonlight. Among adults, males were more active than females, and subadult lynx were more active than adults. In polar regions, the amplitude of the lynx daily activity pattern was low, likely as a result of the polycyclic activity pattern of their main prey, reindeer. At lower latitudes, the basic lynx activity pattern peaked during twilight, corresponding to the crepuscular activity pattern of the main prey, roe deer. Our results indicated that the basic activity of lynx is independent of light conditions, but is modified by both individual traits and the activity pattern of the locally most important prey.

Physiologically persistent Corpora lutea in Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) - longitudinal ultrasound and endocrine examinations intra-vitam

Felids generally follow a poly-estrous reproductive strategy. Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) display a different pattern of reproductive cyclicity where physiologically persistent corpora lutea (CLs) induce a mono-estrous condition which results in highly seasonal reproduction. The present study was based around a sono-morphological and endocrine study of captive Eurasian lynx, and a control-study on free-ranging lynx. We verified that CLs persist after pregnancy and pseudo-pregnancy for at least a two-year period. We could show that lynx are able to enter estrus in the following year, while CLs from the previous years persisted in structure and only temporarily reduced their function for the period of estrus onset or birth, which is unique among felids. The almost constant luteal progesterone secretion (average of 5 ng/ml serum) seems to prevent folliculogenesis outside the breeding season and has converted a poly-estrous general felid cycle into a mono-estrous cycle specific for lynx. The hormonal regulation mechanism which causes lynx to have the longest CL lifespan amongst mammals remains unclear. The described non-felid like ovarian physiology appears to be a remarkably non-plastic system. The lynx's reproductive ability to adapt to environmental and anthropogenic changes needs further investigation.

Density of wild prey modulates lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.

Decomposing risk: landscape structure and wolf behavior generate different predation patterns in two sympatric ungulates

Recolonizing carnivores can have a large impact on the status of wild ungulates, which have often modified their behavior in the absence of predation. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of reestablished predator-prey systems is crucial to predict their potential ecosystem effects. We decomposed the spatial structure of predation by recolonizing wolves (Canis lupus) on two sympatric ungulates, moose (Alces alces) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), in Scandinavia during a 10-year study. We monitored 18 wolves with GPS collars, distributed over 12 territories, and collected records from predation events. By using conditional logistic regression, we assessed the contributions of three main factors, the utilization patterns of each wolf territory, the spatial distribution of both prey species, and fine-scale landscape structure, in determining the spatial structure of moose and roe deer predation risk. The reestablished predator-prey system showed a remarkable spatial variation in kill occurrence at the intra-territorial level, with kill probabilities varying by several orders of magnitude inside the same territory. Variation in predation risk was evident also when a spatially homogeneous probability for a wolf to encounter a prey was simulated. Even inside the same territory, with the same landscape structure, and when exposed to predation by the same wolves, the two prey species experienced an opposite spatial distribution of predation risk. In particular, increased predation risk for moose was associated with open areas, especially clearcuts and young forest stands, whereas risk was lowered for roe deer in the same habitat types. Thus, fine-scale landscape structure can generate contrasting predation risk patterns in sympatric ungulates, so that they can experience large differences in the spatial distribution of risk and refuge areas when exposed to predation by a recolonizing predator. Territories with an earlier recolonization were not associated with a lower hunting success for wolves. Such constant efficiency in wolf predation during the recolonization process is in line with previous findings about the naive nature of Scandinavian moose to wolf predation. This, together with the human-dominated nature of the Scandinavian ecosystem, seems to limit the possibility for wolves to have large ecosystem effects and to establish a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade in Scandinavia.

Selecting habitat to survive: the impact of road density on survival in a large carnivore

Habitat selection studies generally assume that animals select habitat and food resources at multiple scales to maximise their fitness. However, animals sometimes prefer habitats of apparently low quality, especially when considering the costs associated with spatially heterogeneous human disturbance. We used spatial variation in human disturbance, and its consequences on lynx survival, a direct fitness component, to test the Hierarchical Habitat Selection hypothesis from a population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in southern Norway. Data from 46 lynx monitored with telemetry indicated that a high proportion of forest strongly reduced the risk of mortality from legal hunting at the home range scale, while increasing road density strongly increased such risk at the finer scale within the home range. We found hierarchical effects of the impact of human disturbance, with a higher road density at a large scale reinforcing its negative impact at a fine scale. Conversely, we demonstrated that lynx shifted their habitat selection to avoid areas with the highest road densities within their home ranges, thus supporting a compensatory mechanism at fine scale enabling lynx to mitigate the impact of large-scale disturbance. Human impact, positively associated with high road accessibility, was thus a stronger driver of lynx space use at a finer scale, with home range characteristics nevertheless constraining habitat selection. Our study demonstrates the truly hierarchical nature of habitat selection, which aims at maximising fitness by selecting against limiting factors at multiple spatial scales, and indicates that scale-specific heterogeneity of the environment is driving individual spatial behaviour, by means of trade-offs across spatial scales.

Big cats in our backyards: persistence of large carnivores in a human dominated landscape in India

Protected areas are extremely important for the long term viability of biodiversity in a densely populated country like India where land is a scarce resource. However, protected areas cover only 5% of the land area in India and in the case of large carnivores that range widely, human use landscapes will function as important habitats required for gene flow to occur between protected areas. In this study, we used photographic capture recapture analysis to assess the density of large carnivores in a human-dominated agricultural landscape with density >300 people/km² in western Maharashtra, India. We found evidence of a wide suite of wild carnivores inhabiting a cropland landscape devoid of wilderness and wild herbivore prey. Furthermore, the large carnivores; leopard (Panthera pardus) and striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) occurred at relatively high density of 4.8±1.2 (sd) adults/100 km² and 5.03±1.3 (sd) adults/100 km² respectively. This situation has never been reported before where 10 large carnivores/100 km² are sharing space with dense human populations in a completely modified landscape. Human attacks by leopards were rare despite a potentially volatile situation considering that the leopard has been involved in serious conflict, including human deaths in adjoining areas. The results of our work push the frontiers of our understanding of the adaptability of both, humans and wildlife to each other’s presence. The results also highlight the urgent need to shift from a PA centric to a landscape level conservation approach, where issues are more complex, and the potential for conflict is also very high. It also highlights the need for a serious rethink of conservation policy, law and practice where the current management focus is restricted to wildlife inside Protected Areas.

Understanding and managing conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts are increasing and need to be managed to minimise negative impacts on biodiversity, human livelihoods, and human well-being. Here, we explore strategies and case studies that highlight the long-term, dynamic nature of conflicts and the challenges to their management. Conflict management requires parties to recognise problems as shared ones, and engage with clear goals, a transparent evidence base, and an awareness of trade-offs. We hypothesise that conservation outcomes will be less durable when conservationists assert their interests to the detriment of others. Effective conflict management and long-term conservation benefit will be enhanced by better integration of the underpinning social context with the material impacts and evaluation of the efficacy of alternative conflict management approaches.

Implementation uncertainty when using recreational hunting to manage carnivores

1. Wildlife managers often rely on resource users, such as recreational or commercial hunters, to achieve management goals. The use of hunters to control wildlife populations is especially common for predators and ungulates, but managers cannot assume that hunters will always fill annual quotas set by the authorities. It has been advocated that resource management models should account for uncertainty in how harvest rules are realized, requiring that this implementation uncertainty be estimated.

2. We used a survival analysis framework and long‐term harvest data from large carnivore management systems in three countries (Estonia, Latvia and Norway) involving four species (brown bear, grey wolf, Eurasian lynx and wolverine) to estimate the performance of hunters with respect to harvest goals set by managers.

3. Variation in hunter quota‐filling performance was substantial, ranging from 40% for wolverine in Norway to nearly 100% for lynx in Latvia. Seasonal and regional variation was also high within country–species pairs. We detected a positive relationship between the instantaneous potential to fill a quota slot and the relative availability of the target species for both wolverine and lynx in Norway.

4. Survivor curves and hazards – with survival time measured as the time from the start of a season until a quota slot is filled – can indicate the extent to which managers can influence harvest through adjustments of season duration and quota limits.

5.  Synthesis and applications. We investigated seven systems where authorities use recreational hunting to manage large carnivore populations. The variation and magnitude of deviation from harvest goals was substantial, underlining the need to incorporate implementation uncertainty into resource management models and decisions‐making. We illustrate how survival analysis can be used by managers to estimate the performance of resource users with respect to achieving harvest goals set by managers. The findings in this study come at an opportune time given the growing popularity of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models in fisheries and a push towards incorporating MSE into terrestrial harvest management.

We investigated seven systems where authorities use recreational hunting to manage large carnivore populations. The variation and magnitude of deviation from harvest goals was substantial, underlining the need to incorporate implementation uncertainty into resource management models and decisions‐making. We illustrate how survival analysis can be used by managers to estimate the performance of resource users with respect to achieving harvest goals set by managers. The findings in this study come at an opportune time given the growing popularity of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models in fisheries and a push towards incorporating MSE into terrestrial harvest management.

Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management

This overview article for the special series, "Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management," reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.