Stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia derived from biophysical and biochemical markers at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

We have proposed previously that all pregnant women should have assessment of risk for pre-eclampsia (PE) at 20 and 36 weeks' gestation and that the 20-week assessment should be used to define subgroups requiring additional monitoring and reassessment at 28 and 32 weeks. The objective of this study was to examine the potential improvement in screening at 19-24 weeks' gestation for PE with delivery at < 28, < 32, < 36 and ≥ 36 weeks' gestation by the addition of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) to the combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and mean arterial pressure (MAP).

METHODS

This was a prospective, non-intervention study in women attending for an ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median values of UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each of four risk categories (very high risk, high risk, intermediate risk and low risk) with the intention of detecting about 80%, 85%, 90% and 95% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. The performance of screening was assessed by plotting the detection rate against the screen-positive rate and calculating the areas under these curves, and by the proportion stratified into a given group for fixed detection rates. Model-based estimates of screening performance for these various combinations of markers were also produced.

RESULTS

In the study population of 37 886 singleton pregnancies, there were 1130 (3.0%) that subsequently developed PE, including 160 (0.4%) that delivered at < 36 weeks' gestation. In both the modeled and empirical results, there was incremental improvement in the performance of screening with the addition of PlGF and sFlt-1 to the combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP. If the objective of screening was to identify about 90% of cases of PE with delivery at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI and MAP, the respective screen-positive rates would be 3.1%, 8.5% and 19.1%. The respective values for screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF were 0.2%, 0.7% and 10.6%, and for screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 they were 0.1%, 0.4% and 9.5%. The empirical results were consistent with the modeled results. There was good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed incidence of PE at < 36 weeks' gestation for all three strategies of screening. Prediction of PE at ≥ 36 weeks was poor for all three screening methods, with the detection rate, at a 10% screen-positive rate, ranging from 33.2% to 38.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of screening at 19-24 weeks' gestation for PE with delivery at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation achieved by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, UtA-PI and MAP is improved by the addition of serum PlGF and sFlt-1. The performance of screening for PE at ≥ 36 weeks' gestation is poor irrespective of the method of screening at 19-24 weeks. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Crown-rump length measurement error: impact on assessment of growth

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of first-trimester crown-rump length (CRL) measurement error on the interpretation of estimated fetal weight (EFW) and classification of fetuses as small-, large- or appropriate-for-gestational age on subsequent growth scans.

METHODS

We examined the effects of errors of ± 2, ± 3 and ± 4 mm in the measurement of fetal CRL on percentiles of EFW at 20, 32 and 36 weeks' gestation and classification as small-, large- or appropriate-for-gestational age. Published data on CRL measurement error were used to determine variation present in practice.

RESULTS

A measurement error of -2 mm in first-trimester CRL shifts an EFW on the 10^th percentile at the 20-week scan to around the 20^th percentile, and the effect of a CRL measurement error of + 2 mm would shift an EFW on the 10^th percentile to around the 5^th percentile. At 32 weeks, a first-trimester CRL measurement error would shift an EFW on the 10^th percentile to the 7^th (+ 2 mm) or 14^th (-2 mm) percentile; at 36 weeks, the EFW would shift from the 10^th percentile to the 8^th (+ 2 mm) or 12^th (-2 mm) percentile. Published data suggest that measurement errors of 2 mm or more are common in practice.

CONCLUSION

Because of the widespread and potentially severe consequences of CRL measurement errors as small as 2 mm on clinical assessment, patient management and research results, there is a need to increase awareness of the impact of CRL measurement error and to reduce measurement error variation through standardization and quality control. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Effect of maternal age on cardiac adaptation in pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To compare longitudinal maternal hemodynamic changes throughout gestation between different age groups.

METHODS

This was a prospective longitudinal study assessing maternal hemodynamics using a bioreactance technique at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6, 19 + 0 to 24 + 0, 30 + 0 to 34 + 0 and 35 + 0 to 37 + 0 weeks' gestation. Women were divided into four groups according to maternal age at the first visit at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks: Group 1, < 25.0 years; Group 2, 25.0-30.0 years; Group 3, 30.1-34.9 years; and Group 4, ≥ 35.0 years. A multilevel linear mixed-effects model was performed to compare the repeat measurements of hemodynamic variables, correcting for demographics, medical and obstetric history, pregnancy complications, maternal age and gestational-age window.

RESULTS

The study population included 254 women in Group 1, 442 in Group 2, 618 in Group 3 and 475 in Group 4. Younger women (Group 1) had the highest cardiac output (CO) and lowest peripheral vascular resistance (PVR), and older women (Group 4) had the lowest CO and highest PVR throughout pregnancy. The higher CO seen in younger women was achieved through an increase in heart rate alone and not with a concomitant rise in stroke volume. Although the youngest age group demonstrated an apparently more favorable hemodynamic profile, it had the highest incidence of a small-for-gestational-age neonate. There was no significant difference between the groups in the incidence of pre-eclampsia.

CONCLUSION

Age-specific differences in maternal hemodynamic adaptation do not explain the differences in the incidence of a small-for-gestational-age neonate between age groups. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Three-dimensional echocardiography and cardiac strain imaging in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with premature cardiovascular disease and adverse cardiovascular outcome in the mother. Subclinical cardiac functional changes in the left ventricle have been reported during pregnancy in women with GDM using conventional echocardiography, but results are inconsistent. The aims of the current study were to assess whether GDM is associated with biventricular systolic dysfunction in the mother and whether these cardiac changes can be detected using the novel echocardiographic modalities of strain imaging and three-dimensional (3D) echocardiography.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study in women with GDM and controls examined at 26-40 weeks of gestation. All women underwent echocardiography, and 3D volumes of the left and right ventricles and left atrium were collected. Ejection fraction and left ventricular mass were measured using 3D echocardiography. Left ventricular mass was indexed to body surface area. Speckle-tracking echocardiography was used to assess global longitudinal strain of the left and right ventricles and strain of the left atrium.

RESULTS

The study population included 123 women with GDM and 246 controls. Women with GDM, compared to controls, were older (35.1 ± 5.2 vs 32.4 ± 5.5 years; P < 0.001), had higher body mass index (30.6 (interquartile range (IQR), 26.2-35.2) vs 27.5 (IQR, 24.7-30.7) kg/m² ; P < 0.001) and had higher systolic blood pressure (119.9 ± 11.2 vs 116.4 ± 12.0 mmHg; P = 0.007). In all women with GDM, there was good glycemic control. In women with GDM, compared to controls, there was lower global longitudinal strain of the left ventricle (-19.3% (IQR, -21.4 to -17.6%) vs -20.1% (IQR, -22.1 to -18.7%); P = 0.002) and right ventricle (-22.2% (IQR, -26.1 to -19.8%) vs -24.1% (IQR, -27.0 to -21.9%); P < 0.001). There was no significant difference between the groups in ejection fraction, left ventricular mass, diastolic function assessed by left atrial strain, or 3D functional indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with GDM, compared to women with uncomplicated pregnancy, have lower left and right ventricular myocardial deformation. Volumetric assessment using 3D echocardiography does not provide additional information about maternal cardiac function. Strain imaging is a sensitive echocardiographic modality to detect early cardiac functional changes in women with GDM. Further studies are needed to assess the pattern of deterioration of cardiac function with advancing age in women with a history of GDM. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in screening for trisomies in twin pregnancy: updated cohort study at 10-14 weeks and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To expand the limited knowledge on cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy by updating the data from The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) on prospective first-trimester screening and those identified in a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

The FMF data were derived from prospective screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancies at 10 + 0 to 14 + 1 weeks' gestation using the Harmony® prenatal test. A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (World Health Organization) was carried out to identify all peer-reviewed publications on clinical validation or implementation of maternal cfDNA testing for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy, irrespective of gestational age at testing, in which data on pregnancy outcome were provided for at least 85% of the study population. Meta-analysis was performed using the FMF data and data from the studies identified by the literature search. This review was registered in the PROSPERO international database for systematic reviews RESULTS: In the FMF study, cfDNA testing was carried out in 1442 twin pregnancies and a result was obtained, after first or second sampling, in 1367 (94.8%) cases. In 93.1% (1272/1367) of cases, there was prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or birth of phenotypically normal babies; 95 cases were excluded from further analysis either because the pregnancy ended in termination, miscarriage or stillbirth with no known karyotype (n = 56) or there was loss to follow-up (n = 39). In the 1272 pregnancies included in the study, there were 20 cases with trisomy 21, 10 with trisomy 18, two with trisomy 13 and 1240 without trisomy 21, 18 or 13. The cfDNA test classified correctly 19 (95.0%) of the 20 cases of trisomy 21, nine (90.0%) of the 10 cases of trisomy 18, one (50.0%) of the two cases of trisomy 13 and 1235 (99.6%) of the 1240 cases without any of the three trisomies. The literature search identified 12 relevant studies, excluding our papers because their data are included in the current study. In the combined populations of our study and the 12 studies identified by the literature search, there were 137 trisomy-21 and 7507 non-trisomy-21 twin pregnancies; the pooled weighted detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) were 99.0% (95% CI, 92.0-99.9%) and 0.02% (95% CI, 0.001-0.43%), respectively. In the combined total of 50 cases of trisomy 18 and 6840 non-trisomy-18 pregnancies, the pooled weighted DR and FPR were 92.8% (95% CI, 77.6-98.0%) and 0.01% (95% CI, 0.00-0.44%), respectively. In the combined total of 11 cases of trisomy 13 and 6290 non-trisomy-13 pregnancies, the pooled weighted DR and FPR were 94.7% (95% CI, 9.14-99.97%) and 0.10% (95% CI, 0.03-0.39%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In twin pregnancy, the reported DR of trisomy 21 by cfDNA testing is high, but lower than that in singleton pregnancy, whereas the FPR appears to be equally low. The number of cases of trisomy 18 and more so trisomy 13 was too small for accurate assessment of the predictive performance of the cfDNA test. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

First trimester angiogenic and inflammatory factors in women with chronic hypertension and impact of blood pressure control: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To assess first trimester serum placental growth factor (PLGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFLT-1), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), endothelin and vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM) in women with chronic hypertension (CH) stratified according to blood pressure (BP) control.

DESIGN

Case-control.

SETTING

Tertiary referral centre.

POPULATION

650 women with CH, 142 normotensive controls.

METHODS

In the first trimester, patients with CH were subdivided into four groups. Group 1 included women without pre-pregnancy CH presenting with BP ≥140/90 mmHg. Groups 2-4 had pre-pregnancy CH; in group 2 the BP was <140/90 mmHg without antihypertensive medication, in group 3 the BP was <140/90 mmHg with antihypertensive medication, and in group 4 the BP was ≥140/90 mmHg despite antihypertensive medication. PLGF, sFLT-1, IL-6, TNF-α, endothelin and VCAM were measured at 11⁺⁰ -13⁺⁶  weeks' gestation and converted into multiples of the expected median (MoM) using multivariate regression analysis in the controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Comparisons of MoM values of PLGF, sFLT-1, endothelin, IL-6, TNF-α and VCAM between the entire cohort of women with CH and the control group were made using Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U-test. Comparisons between the four CH groups were made using analysis of variance or Kruskal-Wallis tests.

RESULTS

Compared with the control group, women with CH had significantly lower MoM of PLGF, sFLT-1 and IL-6 and a significantly higher MoM of endothelin. Between the four groups of women with CH, there were no significant differences in the MoM of sFLT-1, PLGF, sFLT-1/PLGF ratio, endothelin, IL-6 or VCAM, or in the levels of TNF- α.

CONCLUSION

In women with CH, differences exist in first trimester angiogenic and inflammatory profiles when compared with normotensive pregnancies. However, these differences do not assist in the stratification of women with CH to identify those with more severe underlying disease and worse pregnancy outcomes.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

First trimester blood pressure control impacts on serum PLGF, sFLT-1, endothelin and IL-6 in women with chronic hypertension.

Maternal cardiac function at 19-23 weeks' gestation in prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

To examine differences in maternal cardiovascular indices at 19-23 weeks' gestation between pregnancies that develop gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and those without GDM, and to determine whether such cardiovascular changes are the consequence of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history or GDM per se.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, and maternal echocardiography for assessment of E/A ratio, E/e' ratio, myocardial performance index, global longitudinal systolic strain, left ventricular ejection fraction, peripheral vascular resistance, left ventricular cardiac output and left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area. The measurements of the maternal cardiac indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history, and the adjusted values in the GDM group were compared to those in the non-GDM group. Likelihood ratios were derived for those indices that were altered significantly in GDM, and these were used to modify the prior risk derived from maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve and the detection rate of GDM, at 10%, 20% and 40% false-positive rates, in screening by a combination of maternal factors with cardiovascular indices were determined.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 199 (7.0%) that developed GDM. In pregnancies that developed GDM, there were significant differences from the non-GDM group in E/A ratio, E/e' ratio, myocardial performance index and global longitudinal systolic strain. After adjustment for maternal demographic characteristics and factors from the medical history known to affect cardiac indices, the only cardiovascular indices that were significantly different between the GDM and non-GDM groups were peripheral vascular resistance and myocardial performance index, both of which were marginally increased in the GDM group. The performance of screening for GDM by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history was not improved by the addition of cardiovascular indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with GDM have subtle functional and hemodynamic cardiac changes prior to the development of GDM. These cardiac changes are mostly related to the adverse risk-factor profile of these women. Maternal cardiac assessment at 20 weeks does not offer additional predictive information for GDM development in pregnancy to that calculated based on demographic characteristics and medical history. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fetal loss after chorionic villus sampling in twin pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the chorionic villus sampling (CVS)-related risk of fetal loss in twin pregnancy after adjustment for chorionicity, nuchal translucency thickness (NT), intertwin discordance in crown-rump length (CRL), maternal demographic characteristics and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG).

METHODS

This was a multicenter study from eight fetal medicine units in which the leadership were trained at the Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine in London, UK, and in which the protocols for screening, invasive testing and pregnancy management are similar. Data were obtained prospectively from women with twin pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination was used to examine whether CVS provided a significant independent contribution to the prediction of risk of fetal loss after adjusting for maternal and pregnancy characteristics, including maternal age, racial origin and weight, method of conception, smoking status, parity, chorionicity, intertwin discordance in CRL, fetal NT ≥ 95^th percentile and free β-hCG and PAPP-A multiples of the median. Similarly, within the CVS group, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of the number of intrauterine needle insertions and size of the needle on the risk of fetal loss.

RESULTS

The study population of 8581 twin pregnancies undergoing ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation included 316 dichorionic and 129 monochorionic twins that had CVS. First, in twin pregnancies undergoing CVS, compared to those not undergoing CVS, there was a 2-fold increased risk of fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation and of loss at any stage in pregnancy. Second, the factors providing a significant independent contribution to the prediction of miscarriage or fetal loss in twin pregnancy were increased maternal weight, black racial origin, monochorionicity, and more so monoamnionicity, large intertwin discordance in CRL and increased fetal NT, and, in the case of fetal loss at any stage, there was also a contribution from assisted conception and low serum PAPP-A. Third, after adjustment for maternal and pregnancy characteristics, CVS did not provide a significant contribution to the risk of fetal loss. Fourth, in twin pregnancies that had CVS, there was no significant contribution to fetal loss from the number of intrauterine needle insertions or needle size.

CONCLUSION

The 2-fold increased risk of fetal loss following CVS in twin pregnancy can, to a great extent, be explained by maternal and pregnancy characteristics rather than the invasive procedure itself. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Stratification of pregnancy care based on risk of pre-eclampsia derived from uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

There were two objectives of this study. First, to examine the value of uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) at 19-24 weeks' gestation in the prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE) and to compare the performance of screening between the use of, first, fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI, second, percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI adjusted for gestational age, third, a competing-risks model combining maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with UtA-PI, and, fourth, a competing-risks model combining maternal factors with UtA-PI and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Second, to stratify pregnancy care based on the estimated risk of PE at 19-24 weeks' gestation from UtA-PI and combinations of maternal factors with UtA-PI and MAP.

METHODS

This was a prospective, non-intervention study in women attending for an ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of the gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median (MoM) values of UtA-PI and MAP. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each risk category (very high risk, high risk, intermediate risk and low risk) with the intention of detecting about 80%, 85%, 90% and 95% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation. We also examined the performance of screening by maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI and percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI adjusted for gestational age. Calibration for risks for PE < 36 weeks' gestation by the combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI MoM and MAP MoM was assessed by plotting the observed incidence of PE against the predicted incidence. Additionally, we developed reference ranges of transabdominal and transvaginal measurement of UtA-PI according to gestational age.

RESULTS

In the study population of 96 678 singleton pregnancies, there were 2866 (3.0%) that subsequently developed PE, including 467 (0.5%) that delivered at < 36 weeks' gestation. If the objective of screening was to identify about 90% of cases of delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks and the method of screening was a combination of maternal factors, UtA-PI MoM and MAP MoM, the proportion of the population stratified into very high-risk, high-risk, intermediate-risk and low-risk groups would be 2.4%, 3.9%, 17.8% and 75.9%, respectively; the respective values were 6.0%, 3.0%, 21.0% and 70.0% if screening was by maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, 5.7%, 7.5%, 49.8% and 37.0% if screening was by fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI and 6.9%, 5.2%, 49.0% and 38.9% if screening was by percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI. In the validation of the prediction model based on a combination of maternal factors and MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP, calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed incidence of PE.

CONCLUSIONS

All pregnant women should have screening for PE at 20 and 36 weeks' gestation. The findings at 20 weeks can be used to identify the subgroups that require additional monitoring and reassessment at 28 and 32 weeks. The performance of screening by a combination of maternal factors and MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP at 19-24 weeks for delivery with PE at < 28, < 32 and < 36 weeks' gestation is superior to that of screening by a combination of maternal factors and UtA-PI MoM, by fixed cut-offs of UtA-PI or by percentile cut-offs of UtA-PI. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of the RCOG guideline for the prediction of neonates that are small for gestational age and comparison with the competing risks model

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the relevant guideline by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) for neonates that are small for gestational age (SGA), and to compare the performance of the RCOG guideline with that of our competing risks model for SGA.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Obstetric ultrasound departments in two UK maternity hospitals.

POPULATION

A total of 96 678 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Risks for SGA for different thresholds were computed, according to the competing risks model using maternal history, second-trimester estimated fetal weight, uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial pressure. The detection rates by the RCOG guideline scoring system and the competing risks model for SGA were compared, at the screen positive rate (SPR) derived from the RCOG guideline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Small for gestational age (SGA), <10th or <3rd percentile, for different gestational age thresholds.

RESULTS

At an SPR of 22.5%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 56, 72 and 81% of cases of neonates that are SGA, with birthweights of <10th percentile, delivered at ≥37, <37 and <32 weeks of gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective figures of 36, 44 and 45% achieved by the application of the RCOG guideline. The respective figures for neonates that were SGA with birthweights of <3rd percentile were 66, 79, 85 and 41, 45, 44%.

CONCLUSION

The detection rate for neonates that were SGA with the competing risk approach is almost double than that obtained with the RCOG guideline.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

The competing risks approach for the prediction of SGA performs better than the existing RCOG guideline.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from estimated fetal weight at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop further a new competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, by including second-trimester ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 96 678 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies had ultrasound biometry assessment, and EFW was calculated according to the Hadlock formula. We refitted in this large dataset a previously described competing-risks model for the joint distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, according to maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, to obtain the prior distribution. The continuous likelihood of the EFW was fitted conditionally to GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score and modified the prior distribution, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score and therefore patient-specific risks for any cut-offs for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We assessed the discriminative ability of the model for predicting SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia occurrence. A calibration study was carried out. Performance of screening was evaluated for SGA defined according to the Fetal Medicine Foundation birth-weight charts.

RESULTS

The distribution of EFW, conditional to both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, was best described by a regression model. For earlier gestations, the association between EFW and birth weight was steeper. The prediction of SGA by maternal factors and EFW improved for increasing degree of prematurity and greater severity of smallness but not for coexistence of pre-eclampsia. Screening by maternal factors predicted 31%, 34% and 39% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 30 weeks' gestation, respectively, at a 10% false-positive rate, and, after addition of EFW, these rates increased to 38%, 43% and 59%, respectively; the respective rates for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 43%, 50% and 64%. The addition of EFW improved the calibration of the model.

CONCLUSION

In the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA, the performance of screening by maternal characteristics and medical history is improved by the addition of second-trimester EFW. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal cardiac function at 19-23 weeks' gestation in prediction of pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVES

First, to examine the factors from maternal characteristics and medical history that affect maternal cardiovascular indices, and, second, to examine the potential value of maternal cardiovascular indices at 19-23 weeks' gestation, on their own and in combination with maternal factors and the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, assessment of maternal E/A ratio, E/e' ratio, myocardial performance index, global longitudinal systolic strain, left ventricular ejection fraction, peripheral vascular resistance, left ventricular cardiac output and left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The measurements of the eight maternal cardiac indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE and determine the detection rate, at a 10% false-positive rate, in screening by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE. In pregnancies that subsequently developed PE, there was evidence of altered cardiac geometry, impaired myocardial function and increased peripheral vascular resistance. All maternal cardiovascular indices were affected significantly by maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history known to be associated with an increased risk for subsequent development of PE. After adjustment for maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, the only cardiovascular index that was affected significantly by subsequent development of PE was peripheral vascular resistance. Peripheral vascular resistance multiples of the median (MoM) was correlated with MAP MoM, which is not surprising because blood pressure is involved in the estimation of both. There were weak correlations between several cardiovascular indices and MAP MoM, but none was correlated with MoM values of UtA-PI, PlGF or sFlt-1. The performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation or delivery with PE at any gestational age in screening by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history or combinations of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 was not improved by the addition of peripheral vascular resistance.

CONCLUSION

Assessment of maternal cardiovascular function provides information on the pathophysiology of PE but is not useful in the prediction of PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Relationship between ophthalmic artery Doppler and maternal cardiovascular function

OBJECTIVE

In mid-gestation, the finding of an increase in the ophthalmic artery second to first peak of systolic velocity ratio (PSV ratio) provides useful prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE). The objective of this study of an unselected population at 19-23 weeks' gestation was to gain a better understanding of the factors that influence ophthalmic artery Doppler by examining the possible association between the PSV ratio and maternal cardiovascular function.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries and assessment of maternal cardiovascular function. The following nine cardiovascular indices were examined: E/A ratio; E/e' ratio; myocardial performance index; global longitudinal systolic strain; left ventricular ejection fraction; peripheral vascular resistance; left ventricular cardiac output; left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area; and mean arterial pressure. The ophthalmic artery PSV ratio and the nine cardiovascular indices were converted to either log₁₀ multiples of the median (MoM) values or deviations from the median (deltas) values after adjustment for maternal characteristics and elements of medical history. Regression analysis was then used to examine the significance of the association between PSV ratio delta and MoM or delta values of each cardiovascular index in the total population and in the subgroup that developed PE.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE. In the total population, there were significant but weak associations between the PSV ratio and most of the cardiovascular indices, with r-values of < 0.1, except for mean arterial pressure with r = 0.178. In the subgroup that developed PE, a moderately strong association between the PSV ratio and left ventricular mass indexed for body surface area was noted (r = 0.308).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that Doppler assessment of PSV ratio in the ophthalmic artery provides information about peripheral vascular status. The increase in PSV ratio in women who develop PE is associated with increased afterload and an increase in left ventricular thickness. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with other biomarkers in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 35-37 weeks' gestation in combination with the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination for fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at any time and at < 3 weeks after assessment by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve and detection rate (DR) of delivery with PE, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by combinations of maternal factors with ophthalmic artery second to first peak of systolic velocity ratio (PSV ratio), MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1 were determined. The modeled performance of screening for PE was also estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 2287 pregnancies contained 60 (2.6%) that developed PE, including 19 (0.8%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment. The PSV ratio improved the prediction of PE with delivery at any stage after assessment provided by maternal factors alone (from 25.4% to 50.6%), maternal factors and MAP (54.3% to 62.7%), maternal factors, MAP and PlGF (68.3% to 70.8%) and maternal factors, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 (75.7% to 76.7%), at a FPR of 10%. The PSV ratio also improved the prediction of PE with delivery at < 3 weeks after assessment provided by maternal factors alone (from 31.0% to 69.4%), maternal factors and MAP (74.1% to 83.4%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (77.1% to 85.0%) and maternal factors, MAP and PlGF (84.8% to 88.6%). The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results. Screening by a combination of maternal factors with MAP and PSV ratio also detected 59.4% (95% CI, 58.6-82.5%) of cases of gestational hypertension with delivery at any stage after assessment, and 86.7% (95% CI, 82.4-100%) of those with delivery at < 3 weeks after assessment.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery Doppler could potentially improve the performance of screening for PE at 35-37 weeks, especially imminent PE with delivery within 3 weeks after assessment, but further studies are needed to validate this finding. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Impact of gestational diabetes mellitus on fetal cardiac morphology and function: cohort comparison of second- and third-trimester fetuses

OBJECTIVES

To assess differences in cardiac morphology and function in fetuses of mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to controls, and to assess whether, in women with GDM, fetal cardiac changes are accentuated with advancing gestational age.

METHODS

We studied 112 women with GDM and 224 women with uncomplicated pregnancy at 24-40 weeks' gestation. In all fetuses, a standard four-chamber oblique view was obtained and offline speckle-tracking analysis was performed to measure right and left endocardial global longitudinal strain (GLS) and tricuspid and mitral annular plane systolic excursion. Global sphericity index was also calculated. Echocardiographic parameters were compared between GDM fetuses and controls at two gestational time periods of 24 + 0 to 32 + 0 weeks and 32 + 1 to 40 + 1 weeks.

RESULTS

At 24 + 0 to 32 + 0 weeks, we phenotyped 43 fetuses from mothers with GDM and 71 from uncomplicated pregnancies, and, at 32 + 1 to 40 + 1 weeks, we phenotyped 69 fetuses from mothers with GDM and 153 from women with uncomplicated pregnancy. In fetuses of mothers with GDM, compared to controls, right ventricular functional indices were consistently lower both at 24 + 0 to 32 + 0 weeks and at 32 + 1 to 40 + 1 weeks. Right ventricular GLS was reduced in the GDM group at 24 + 0 to 32 + 0 weeks (adjusted mean difference, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.3-1.1%) and at 32 + 1 to 40 + 1 weeks (adjusted mean difference, 0.9%; 95% CI, 0.6-1.1%). Fetal left ventricular global longitudinal function was similar in GDM pregnancies compared with controls, with the exception of the contractility of the left ventricular basal segment, which was reduced. Global sphericity index was reduced in GDM pregnancies only at 32 + 1 to 40 + 1 weeks (adjusted mean difference, -0.4; 95% CI, -0.7 to 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The offspring of women with GDM are at high risk for development of cardiovascular disease in childhood and early adulthood. Our study demonstrates that GDM is associated with a reduction mainly in fetal right ventricular function, compared to controls, and this response is not exaggerated with increasing gestational age. Further studies are needed to determine whether fetuses with the observed alterations in cardiac function are those at highest risk for subsequent development of cardiovascular disease. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fetal cardiac function at 35-37 weeks' gestation in pregnancies that subsequently develop pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To compare fetal cardiac morphology and function between pregnancies that subsequently developed pre-eclampsia (PE) and those that remained normotensive.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 1574 pregnancies at 35-37 weeks' gestation, including 76 that subsequently developed PE. We carried out comprehensive assessment of fetal cardiac morphology and function including novel imaging modalities, such as speckle-tracking echocardiography, and measured uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and cerebroplacental ratio (CPR). The findings in the group that subsequently developed PE were compared to those in pregnancies that remained normotensive.

RESULTS

In fetuses of mothers who subsequently developed PE, compared to those from normotensive pregnancies, there was a more globular right ventricle, as shown by reduced right ventricular sphericity index, reduced right ventricular systolic contractility, as shown by reduced global longitudinal strain, and reduced left ventricular diastolic function, as shown by increased E/A ratio. On multivariable regression analysis, these indices demonstrated an association with PE, independent of maternal characteristics and fetal size. In pregnancies that subsequently developed PE, compared to those that remained normotensive, MAP, sFlt-1 and the incidence of low birth weight were higher, whereas serum PlGF, CPR and the interval between assessment and delivery were lower. These findings demonstrate that, in pregnancies that develop PE, there is evidence of impaired placentation, reflected in low PlGF and reduced birth weight, placental ischemia, evidenced by increased sFlt-1 which becomes apparent in the interval of 2-4 weeks preceding the clinical onset of PE, and consequent fetal hypoxia-induced redistribution in the fetal circulation, reflected in the low CPR.

CONCLUSION

Although the etiology of the observed fetal cardiac changes in pregnancies that subsequently develop PE remains unclear, it is possible that the reduction in right-heart systolic function is the consequence of high afterload due to increased placental resistance, whilst the early left ventricular diastolic changes could be due to fetal hypoxia-induced redistribution in the fetal circulation. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics, serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To expand a new competing-risks model for prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, by the addition of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF), and to evaluate and compare PAPP-A and PlGF in predicting SGA.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. We fitted a folded-plane regression model for the PAPP-A and PlGF likelihoods. A previously developed maternal history model and the likelihood models were combined, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model. McNemar's test was used to compare the detection rates for SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia (PE) occurrence, of different combinations of maternal history, PAPP-A and PlGF, for a fixed false-positive rate.

RESULTS

The distributions of PAPP-A and PlGF depend on both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, in the same continuous likelihood, according to a folded-plane regression model. The new approach offers the capability for risk computation for any desired birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery cut-off. PlGF was consistently and significantly better than PAPP-A in predicting SGA delivered before 37 weeks, especially in cases with co-existence of PE. PAPP-A had similar performance to PlGF for the prediction of SGA without PE. At a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, the combination of maternal history, PlGF and PAPP-A predicted 33.8%, 43.8% and 48.4% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 38.6%, 48.7% and 51.0%. The new model performed well in terms of risk calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of PAPP-A and PlGF values with maternal characteristics, according to Bayes' theorem, improves prediction of SGA. PlGF is a better predictor of SGA than PAPP-A, especially when PE is present. The new competing-risks model for SGA can be tailored to each pregnancy and to the relevant clinical requirements. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion reverses the natural history of right-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia: European multicenter experience

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the neonatal outcome of fetuses with isolated right-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (iRCDH) based on prenatal severity indicators and antenatal management.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data on consecutive cases diagnosed with iRCDH before 30 weeks' gestation in four fetal therapy centers, between January 2008 and December 2018. Data on prenatal severity assessment, antenatal management and perinatal outcome were retrieved. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify predictors of survival at discharge and early neonatal morbidity.

RESULTS

Of 265 patients assessed during the study period, we excluded 40 (15%) who underwent termination of pregnancy, two cases of unexplained fetal death, two that were lost to follow-up, one for which antenatal assessment of lung hypoplasia was not available and six cases which were found to have major associated anomalies or syndromes after birth. Of the 214 fetuses with iRCDH included in the neonatal outcome analysis, 86 were managed expectantly during pregnancy and 128 underwent fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (FETO) with a balloon. In the expectant-management group, lung size measured by ultrasound or by magnetic resonance imaging was the only independent predictor of survival (observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio (o/e-LHR) odds ratio (OR), 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.11); P = 0.003). Until now, stratification for severe lung hypoplasia has been based on an o/e-LHR cut-off of 45%. In cases managed expectantly, the survival rate was 15% (4/27) in those with o/e-LHR ≤ 45% and 61% (36/59) for o/e-LHR > 45% (P = 0.001). However, the best o/e-LHR cut-off for the prediction of survival at discharge was 50%, with a sensitivity of 78% and specificity of 72%. In the expectantly managed group, survivors with severe pulmonary hypoplasia stayed longer in the neonatal intensive care unit than did those with mildly hypoplastic lungs. In fetuses with an o/e-LHR ≤ 45% treated with FETO, survival rate was higher than in those with similar lung size managed expectantly (49/120 (41%) vs 4/27 (15%); P = 0.014), despite higher prematurity rates (gestational age at birth: 34.4 ± 2.7 weeks vs 36.8 ± 3.0 weeks; P < 0.0001). In fetuses treated with FETO, gestational age at birth was the only predictor of survival (OR, 1.25 (95% CI, 1.04-1.50); P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Antenatal measurement of lung size can predict survival in iRCDH. In fetuses with severe lung hypoplasia, FETO was associated with a significant increase in survival without an associated increase in neonatal morbidity. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation: data from EVENTS trial

OBJECTIVES

First, to validate a previously developed model for screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by maternal characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancies; second, to compare the distributions of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and to develop new models based on these results; and, third, to examine the predictive performance of these models in screening for PE with delivery at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

Two datasets of prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation were used. The first dataset was from the EVENTS (Early vaginal progesterone for the preVention of spontaneous prEterm birth iN TwinS) trial and the second was from a previously reported study that examined the distributions of biomarkers in twin pregnancies. Maternal demographic characteristics and medical history from the EVENTS-trial dataset were used to assess the validity of risks from our previously developed model. The combined data from the first and second datasets were used to compare the distributional properties of log₁₀ multiples of the median (MoM) values of UtA-PI, MAP, PlGF and PAPP-A in twin pregnancies that delivered with PE to those in singleton pregnancies and develop new models based on these results. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation. Screening performance was measured by detection rates (DR) and areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve.

RESULTS

The EVENTS-trial dataset comprised 1798 pregnancies, including 168 (9.3%) that developed PE. In the validation of the prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history, calibration plots demonstrated very good agreement between the predicted risks and the observed incidence of PE (calibration slope and intercept for PE < 32 weeks were 0.827 and 0.009, respectively, and for PE < 37 weeks they were 0.942 and -0.207, respectively). In the combined data, there were 3938 pregnancies, including 339 (8.6%) that developed PE and 253 (6.4%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. In twin pregnancies that delivered with PE, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF were, at earlier gestational ages, more discriminative than in singleton pregnancies and at later gestational ages they were less so. For PAPP-A, there was little difference between PE and unaffected pregnancies. The best performance of screening for PE was achieved by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF. In screening by maternal factors alone, the DR, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 30.6% for delivery with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and this increased to 86.4% when screening by the combined test; the respective values for PE < 37 weeks were 24.9% and 41.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

In the assessment of risk for PE in twin pregnancy, we can use the same prior model based on maternal characteristics and medical history as reported previously, but in the calculation of posterior risks it is necessary to use the new distributions of log₁₀ MoM values of UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF according to gestational age at delivery with PE. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Influence of birth weight on fetal cardiac indices at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

Echocardiographic studies have reported that fetuses with low birth weight, compared to those with normal birth weight, have globular hearts and reduced cardiac function. Dichotomizing continuous variables, such as birth weight, may be helpful in describing pathology in small studies but can prevent us from identifying physiological responses in relation to change in size. The aim of this study was to explore associations between fetal cardiac morphology and function and birth weight, as a continuous variable, as well as uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI), as an indirect measure of placental perfusion, and the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR), as an indirect measure of fetal oxygenation.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 1498 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Pregnancies complicated by pregestational or gestational diabetes mellitus, chronic hypertension, pregnancy-induced hypertension or pre-eclampsia were excluded from the analysis. Conventional and more advanced echocardiographic modalities, such as speckle tracking, were used to assess fetal cardiac function in the right and left ventricles. The morphology of the fetal heart was assessed by calculating the right and left sphericity indices. In addition, the PI of the UtA, umbilical artery (UA) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) was determined and the CPR was calculated by dividing MCA-PI by UA-PI. Multiple linear regression models were used to assess determinants of fetal echocardiographic parameters.

RESULTS

The study population included 146 (9.7%) small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses with birth weight < 10^th percentile and 68 (4.5%) with fetal growth restriction (FGR). In the SGA and FGR groups, compared to the non-SGA and non-FGR fetuses, respectively, there was a more globular right ventricle and reduced left and right ventricular systolic function, and, from the left ventricular diastolic functional indices, the E/A ratio was increased. There was a linear association of right ventricular sphericity index, indices of left and right ventricular systolic function and E/A ratio with birth-weight Z-score. There were no significant associations between cardiac morphological and functional indices and UtA-PI Z-score or CPR Z-score.

CONCLUSIONS

This screening study at 35-37 weeks' gestation has demonstrated that birth weight is a determinant of fetal cardiac morphology and function but UtA-PI and CPR, as indirect measures of placental perfusion and fetal oxygenation, are not. This suggests that the differences in fetal cardiac indices between small and appropriately grown fetuses may be part of a normal physiological response to change in fetal size rather than part of a pathological adaptation to abnormal placental perfusion and fetal oxygenation. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with other biomarkers in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 19-23 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 19-23 weeks' gestation on its own and in combination with the established biomarkers of pre-eclampsia (PE), including uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), in the prediction of subsequent development of PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19 + 1 to 23 + 3 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination for fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries, and measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. Waveforms were obtained from the ophthalmic arteries in sequence from the right eye, left eye and again from the right and then left eye. We recorded the average of the four measurements, two from each eye, for the following four indices: first peak of systolic velocity; second peak of systolic velocity; PI; and the ratio of the second to first peak of systolic velocity (PSV ratio). The measurements of the four indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks' gestation and to determine the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and detection rate (DR), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers. The modeled performance of screening for PE was also estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 2853 pregnancies contained 76 (2.7%) that developed PE, including 18 (0.6%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. The ophthalmic artery PSV ratio was significantly increased in PE pregnancies, and the PE effect depended on gestational age at delivery; the deviation from normal was greater for early than late PE. The second peak of systolic velocity was also increased in PE pregnancies, but the effect did not depend on gestational age at delivery. The other two ophthalmic artery indices of first peak of systolic velocity and PI were not significantly affected by PE. The PSV ratio improved the prediction of preterm PE provided by maternal factors alone (from 56.1% to 80.2%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (80.7% to 87.9%), maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF (85.5% to 90.3%) and maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 (84.9% to 89.8%), at a FPR of 10%. The PSV ratio also improved the prediction of term PE provided by maternal factors alone (from 33.8% to 46.0%), maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI (46.6% to 54.2%), maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF (45.2% to 53.4%) and maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 (43.0% to 51.2%), at a FPR of 10%. The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results. The second peak of systolic velocity did not improve the prediction of either preterm or term PE provided by maternal factors alone.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery PSV ratio at 19-23 weeks' gestation, both on its own and in combination with other biomarkers, is potentially useful for prediction of subsequent development of PE, especially preterm PE, but larger studies are needed to validate this finding. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, based on maternal factors and biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies had pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor (PlGF) measurements, 59 001 had uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) measurements and 58 479 had mean arterial pressure measurements; 57 131 cases had complete data for all biomarkers. We used a previously developed competing-risks model for the joint distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, according to maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. The likelihoods of the biophysical markers were developed by fitting folded-plane regression models, a technique that has already been used in previous studies for the likelihoods of biochemical markers. The next step was to modify the prior distribution by the likelihood, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We used the 57 131 cases with complete data to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model for predicting SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia, by different combinations of maternal factors and biomarkers.

RESULTS

The distribution of biomarkers, conditional to both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, was best described by folded-plane regression models. These continuous two-dimensional likelihoods update the joint distribution of birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery that has resulted from a competing-risks approach; this method allows application of user-defined cut-offs. The best biophysical predictor of preterm SGA was UtA-PI and the best biochemical marker was PlGF. The prediction of SGA was consistently better for increasing degree of prematurity, greater severity of smallness, coexistence of PE and increasing number of biomarkers. The combination of maternal factors with all biomarkers predicted 34.3%, 48.6% and 59.1% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, at a 10% false-positive rate. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 39.9%, 53.2% and 64.4%, and for birth weight < 3^rd percentile with pre-eclampsia they were 46.3%, 66.8% and 80.4%. The new model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has presented a single continuous two-dimensional model for prediction of SGA for any desired cut-offs of smallness and GA at delivery, laying the ground for a personalized antenatal plan for predicting and managing SGA, in the milieu of a new inverted pyramid of prenatal care. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Second- and third-trimester serum levels of growth-differentiation factor-15 in prediction of pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a significant contributor to adverse maternal and perinatal outcome; however, accurate prediction and early diagnosis of this condition remain a challenge. The aim of this study was to compare serum levels of growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) at three different gestational ages between asymptomatic women who subsequently developed preterm or term PE and healthy controls.

METHODS

This was a case-control study drawn from a prospective observational study on adverse pregnancy outcomes in women attending for their routine second- and third-trimester hospital visits. Serum GDF-15 was determined in 300 samples using a commercial GDF-15 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: 120 samples at 19-24 weeks of gestation, 120 samples at 30-34 weeks and 60 samples at 35-37 weeks. Multiple linear regression was applied to logarithmically transformed GDF-15 control values to evaluate the influence of gestational age at blood sampling and maternal characteristics on GDF-15 results. GDF-15 multiples of the normal median (MoM) values, adjusted for gestational age and maternal characteristics, were compared between pregnancies that subsequently developed preterm or term PE and healthy controls.

RESULTS

Values of GDF-15 increased with gestational age. There were no significant differences in GDF-15 MoM values between cases of preterm or term PE and normotensive pregnancies at 19-24 or 35-37 weeks of gestation. At 30-34 weeks, GDF-15 MoM values were significantly increased in cases of preterm PE, but not in those who later developed term PE. Elevated GDF-15 MoM values were associated significantly with a shorter interval between sampling at 30-34 weeks and delivery with PE (P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Serum GDF-15 levels at 19-24 or 35-37 weeks of gestation are not predictive of preterm or term PE. At 30-34 weeks, GDF-15 levels are higher in women who subsequently develop preterm PE; however, this difference is small and GDF-15 is unlikely to be useful in clinical practice when used in isolation. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in prediction of pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

First, to examine the potential value of maternal ophthalmic artery Doppler at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of subsequent development of pre-eclampsia (PE), and, second, to examine the variability between repeat measurements in the same eye and variability in measurements between the two eyes.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history and assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic artery. Waveforms were obtained in sequence from the right eye, left eye and again from the right and then left eye. We recorded the average of the four measurements, two from each eye, for the following four indices: first peak of systolic velocity; second peak of systolic velocity; pulsatility index; and the ratio of the second to first peak of systolic velocity (PSV ratio). The measurements of the four indices were standardized to remove the effects of maternal characteristics and elements from the medical history. The competing-risks model was used to determine the detection rate (DR) of delivery with PE at any time and at < 3 weeks after assessment, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), in screening by maternal factors alone and a combination of maternal factors and the adjusted value of each of the four ophthalmic artery indices.

RESULTS

The study population of 2287 pregnancies contained 60 (2.6%) that developed PE, including 19 (0.8%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment. The DR, at 10% FPR, of delivery with PE at any time after assessment by maternal factors was 25.0% (95% CI, 14.7-37.9%), and this increased by 25 percentage points to 50.0% (95% CI, 36.8-63.2%) with the addition of the adjusted PSV ratio (P = 0.005); the respective values for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks after assessment were 31.6% (95% CI, 12.6-56.6%) and 57.9% (95% CI, 33.5-79.8%). The other ophthalmic artery indices did not improve the prediction provided by maternal factors alone. There was good correlation between the first and second measurements of PSV ratio from the same eye (right eye r = 0.823, left eye r = 0.840), but poorer correlation in the first and second measurements between the two eyes (first measurement r = 0.690, second measurement r = 0.682). In screening by maternal factors and PSV ratio for PE with delivery at any stage after assessment, the estimated DR, at 10% FPR, was 50.0% when the average of four measurements was used (two from each eye), 49.1% when the average of one measurement from each eye was used, 47.3% when the average of two measurements from the same eye was used, and 45.8% when only one measurement was used.

CONCLUSIONS

Ophthalmic artery PSV ratio at 35-37 weeks' gestation can predict subsequent delivery with PE, especially if this occurs within 3 weeks after assessment. In the assessment of ophthalmic artery Doppler, it is necessary to use the average of one measurement from each eye to minimize variability of measurements. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.