Evaluation of 2 breast cancer risk models in a benign breast disease cohort

BACKGROUND

More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population.

METHODS

The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD-BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD-BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed.

RESULTS

Fifty-six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD-BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60-0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85-1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94-2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46-0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance.

CONCLUSIONS

The BCSC and BBD-BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5-year risk versus 10-year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.

Stroma modifies relationships between risk factor exposure and age-related epithelial involution in benign breast

Delayed age-related lobular involution has been previously associated with elevated breast cancer risk. However, intraindividual variability in epithelial involution status within a woman is undefined. We developed a novel measure of age-related epithelial involution, density of epithelial nuclei in epithelial areas using digital image analysis in combination with stromal characteristics (percentage of section area comprising stroma). Approximately 1800 hematoxylin and eosin stained sections of benign breast tissue were evaluated from 416 participants having breast surgery for cancer or benign conditions. Two to sixteen slides per woman from different regions of the breast were studied. Epithelial involution status varied within a woman and as a function of stromal area. Percentage stromal area varied between samples from the same woman (median difference between highest and lowest stromal area within a woman was 7.5%, but ranged from 0.01 to 86.7%). Restricting to women with at least 10% stromal area (N = 317), epithelial nuclear density decreased with age (-637.1 cells/mm² per decade of life after age 40, p < 0.0001), increased with mammographic density (457.8 cells/mm² per increasing BI-RADs density category p = 0.002), and increased non-significantly with recent parity, later age at first pregnancy, and longer and more recent oral contraceptive use. These associations were attenuated in women with mostly fat samples (<10% stroma (N = 99)). Thirty-one percent of women evaluated had both adequate stroma (≥10%) and mostly fat (<10% stroma) regions of breast tissue, with the probability of having both types increasing with the number breast tissue samplings. Several breast cancer risk factors are associated with elevated age-related epithelial content, but associations depend upon stromal context. Stromal characteristics appear to modify relationships between risk factor exposures and breast epithelial involution.

Model for Predicting Breast Cancer Risk in Women With Atypical Hyperplasia

Purpose Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but existing risk prediction models do not provide accurate individualized estimates of risk in this subset of high-risk women. Here, we used the Mayo benign breast disease cohort to develop and validate a model of BC risk prediction that is specifically for women with AH, which we have designated as AH-BC. Patients and Methods Retrospective cohorts of women age 18 to 85 years with pathologically confirmed benign AH from Rochester, MN, and Nashville, TN, were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were selected using L1-penalized Cox proportional hazards regression. Identified features were included in a Fine and Gray regression model to estimate BC risk, with death as a competing risk. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the model-building set and an external validation set. Results The model-building set consisted of 699 women with AH, 142 of whom developed BC (median follow-up, 8.1 years), and the external validation set consisted of 461 women with 114 later BC events (median follow-up, 11.4 years). The final AH-BC model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age at biopsy squared, and number of foci of AH. At 10 years, the AH-BC model demonstrated good discrimination (0.63 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70]) and calibration (0.87 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.24]). In the external validation set, the model showed acceptable discrimination (0.59 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.67]) and calibration (0.91 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.42]). Conclusion We have created a new model with which to refine BC risk prediction for women with AH. The AH-BC model demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, and it validates in an external data set.

Negative Differential Conductance & Hot-Carrier Avalanching in Monolayer WS2 FETs

The high field phenomena of inter-valley transfer and avalanching breakdown have long been exploited in devices based on conventional semiconductors. In this Article, we demonstrate the manifestation of these effects in atomically-thin WS2 field-effect transistors. The negative differential conductance exhibits all of the features familiar from discussions of this phenomenon in bulk semiconductors, including hysteresis in the transistor characteristics and increased noise that is indicative of travelling high-field domains. It is also found to be sensitive to thermal annealing, a result that we attribute to the influence of strain on the energy separation of the different valleys involved in hot-electron transfer. This idea is supported by the results of ensemble Monte Carlo simulations, which highlight the sensitivity of the negative differential conductance to the equilibrium populations of the different valleys. At high drain currents (>10 μA/μm) avalanching breakdown is also observed, and is attributed to trap-assisted inverse Auger scattering. This mechanism is not normally relevant in conventional semiconductors, but is possible in WS2 due to the narrow width of its energy bands. The various results presented here suggest that WS2 exhibits strong potential for use in hot-electron devices, including compact high-frequency sources and photonic detectors.

Tissue-based associations of mammographic breast density with breast stem cell markers

Background

Mammographic breast density is a well-established, strong breast cancer risk factor but the biology underlying this association remains unclear. Breast density may reflect underlying alterations in the size and activity of the breast stem cell pool. We examined, for the first time, associations of CD44, CD24, and aldehyde dehydrogenase family 1 member A1 (ALDH1A1) breast stem cell markers with breast density.

Methods

We included in this study 64 asymptomatic healthy women who previously volunteered for a unique biopsy study of normal breast tissue at the Mayo Clinic (2006-2008). Mammographically identified dense and non-dense areas were confirmed/localized by ultrasound and biopsied. Immunohistochemical analysis of the markers was performed according to a standard protocol and the staining was assessed by a single blinded pathologist. In core biopsy samples retrieved from areas of high vs. low density within the same woman, we compared staining extent and an expression score (the product of staining intensity and extent), using the signed rank test. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided.

Results

A total of 64, 28, and 10 women were available for CD44, CD24, and ALDH1A1 staining, respectively. For all three markers, we found higher levels of staining extent in dense as compared to non-dense tissue, though for CD24 and ALDH1A1 the difference did not reach statistical significance (CD44, 6.3% vs. 2.0%, p < 0.001; CD24, 8.0% vs. 5.6%, p = 0.10; and ALDH1A1, 0.5% vs. 0.3%, p = 0.12). The expression score for CD44 was significantly greater in dense as compared to non-dense tissue (9.8 vs.3.0, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest an increased presence and/or activity of stem cells in dense as compared to non-dense breast tissue.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-017-0889-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Flat Epithelial Atypia on Core Biopsy and Upgrade to Cancer: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

No consensus exists on whether flat epithelial atypia (FEA) diagnosed percutaneously should be surgically excised. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the frequency of upgrade to cancer or an atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) at surgical excision of FEA was performed.

METHODS

Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from January 2003 to November 2015 were searched. The inclusion criteria required a manuscript in English with original data on FEA diagnosed percutaneously, data including the presence or absence of other concurrent high-risk lesions, and data including outcome of cancer at surgical excision. Studies were assessed for quality, and two reviewers extracted data. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. The impact of study-level characteristics was assessed by stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

The inclusion criteria was met by 32 studies. A total of 1966 core needle biopsies showed pure FEA, and 1517 (77%) showed surgical excision. The proportions of patients with upgrade to cancer varied from 0 to 42%, with an overall pooled estimate of 11.1%. Heterogeneity was observed, with the greatest impact based on whether a study included cases of FEA diagnosed before 2003. With restriction of the investigation to 16 higher-quality studies, the cancer upgrade pooled estimate was 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4-10.4%), and the rate of invasive cancer was 3% (95% CI 1.9-4.5%). For upgrade to ADH, data from 22 studies including 937 patients were analyzed. The proportion of patients upgraded to ADH ranged from 0 to 60%, with a pooled estimate of 17.9% overall and 18.6% among high-quality studies.

CONCLUSIONS

With patient management change potential for approximately 25% of patients, this analysis supports a general recommendation for surgical excision of FEA diagnosed by core biopsy.