Artificial neural networks to compare the contribution of basic clinical factors, ESC SCORE, and multidimensional risk factors for cardiovascular event prediction performance: an observational study

Background/Introduction

Despite the recent increase in the availability of different data sources that can be used for prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD), it remains unclear to what extent such data could contribute to improving performance of the models in data-driven cardiovascular research.

Purpose

To compare the contribution of different data types in basic clinical factors, the European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (ESC SCORE), and multidimensional risk factors for CVD prediction performance of artificial neural networks (ANN) using the relevant input features derived from a large-scale medical claims database.

Methods

We abstracted data through the National Health Insurance Sharing Service and collected information on 258,896 middle-aged individuals free of CVD at baseline (2009–2010) who were followed up for incident CVD until 2013. Multidimensional risk factors identifiable from the database were chosen from a systematic review of published articles. Input features in ANN were classified as follows: basic clinical factors (age, sex, and body mass index), ESC SCORE (age, sex, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and cigarette smoking), and multidimensional risk factors (sociodemographic, lifestyle behavior, underlying medical conditions, dental health, medication use, etc). The data were partitioned into the training and test sets with 7:3 ratio and the performance of each ANN model was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC).

Results

The ANN model with multidimensional risk factors had higher prediction performance (AUC: 0.692) compared to the models with basic clinical factors (AUC: 0.671) and ESC SCORE (AUC: 0.684). Within the multidimensional risk factors, atrial fibrillation, family history, chronic kidney disease, retinal vein occlusion, dental caries, antipsychotics, and corticosteroid use were some of the strong predictors. However, adding multidimensional risk factors only showed marginal improvement (increase in 1.17% of AUC) compared with the ESC SCORE model.

Conclusions

Adding multidimensional risk factors as input features in the ANN only showed marginal improvement in the CVD prediction performance. When assessing cardiovascular risk from the large-scale healthcare data, variables included in the ESC SCORE should primarily be considered in the model.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Kyuwoong Kim received a scholarship from the BK21-plus education program provided by the National Research Foundation of the Republic of Korea. This work is a part of Kyuwoong Kim's PhD dissertation.

Impact of arterial stiffness on diastolic function and outcomes of heart failure in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Relation of arterial stiffness and cardiovascular disease is well-known. However, there is no data on association between diastolic function and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and influence on heart failure outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Among patients presenting with AMI, all subjects underwent baPWV and echocardiography were recruited. Diastolic function was categorized by 2016 guideline of ASE/EACVI left ventricular diastolic function. Heart failure outcomes were defined 1) hospitalization for heart failure, 2) cardiac death and 3) sudden cardiac arrest.

Results

Totally 1,016 subjects were enrolled (FU duration; 3.5±2.0 years, mean age 65±13, predominant male 71.3% and STEMI 40.8%) from 2012 to 2015 in the our University Hospital. Elderly, female, low BMI, higher PWV, HTN, DM and stroke were associated with higher baPWV. Increased arterial stiffness (defined as baPWV ≥1700) had higher prevalence of diastolic dysfunction compared with baPWV <1700 (98.3% vs 86.2%). HF outcomes of 69 events were identified (HF; n=48, cardiac death; n=16, sudden cardiac arrest; n=2, death d/t HF; n=3). In the multivariate analysis, baPWV ≥1700, HTN and low BMI (23 kg/m2) were independent predictors for HF outcomes after adjustment with age, LVEF, DM and stroke (Table 1). Furthermore, KM curve showed that increased arterial stiffness was associated with higher prevalence of diastolic dysfunction and poor outcomes of heart failure (Figure 1).

Conclusions

In patients with AMI, arterial stiffness was associated with higher prevalence of diastolic dysfunction an independent predictor for heart failure hospitalization and cardiac death.

Figure 1. Diastolic dysfunction and HF in AMI

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Biodegradable-polymer versus durable-polymer drug eluting stents for coronary artery disease: systematic review and a meta-analysis

Background

Biodegradable polymer drug-eluting stents (BP-DES) has been developed to overcome the potential drawbacks of the first-generation durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DP-DES). However, it is still under debate whether BP-DES is associated with superior efficacy and safety over DP-DES.

Purpose

We sought to compare the effects of BP-DES and DP-DES in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods

We performed systematic review and a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing BP-DES and DP-DES on clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease using CE-mark approved drug-eluting stents (DES) with at least 1-year follow-up. We included 32 studies involving 39,686 patients (BP-DES: 21,439 patients, and DP-DES: 18,247 patients). Primary outcome measure was target vessel failure (TVF; equivalent to the composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, or ischemia-driven target vessel revascularization). We performed subgroup analysis according to the DP-DES generations (newer-generation DP-DES: 15,179patients, and first-generation DP-DES: 3,068 patients), and the effects of newer-generation DP-DES was compared with the BP-DES according to the BP-DES strut thickness (Ultra-thin strut [<80μm]: 7,572 patients, Thin-strut [80–100μm]: 5,465 patients, and Thick-strut [≥80μm]: 5,876 patients).

Results

The odds for TVF was not significantly different between the BP-DES group and the DP-DES group in the entire study population (odds ratio [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.90–1.02], P=0.20). The odds for TVF was significantly low in the BP-DES group relative to the first-generation DP-DES group, however the odds were comparable between the BP-DES group and the newer-generation DP-DES group (BP-DES versus first-generation DP-DES: OR 0.82, 95% CI [0.73–0.92], P<0.001, and BP-DES versus newer-generation DP-DES: OR 1.00, 95% CI [0.93–1.08], P=0.99). We also found no significant differences between the BP-DES and newer-generation DP-DES, in all subgroups stratified by the BP-DES strut thickness (Ultra-thin strut BP-DES versus newer-generation DP-DES: OR 0.88, 95% CI [0.76–1.02], P=0.10, Thin-strut BP-DES versus newer-generation DP-DES: OR 1.01, 95% CI [0.90–1.13], P=0.89, and Thick strut BP-DES versus newer-generation DP-DES: OR 1.11, 95% CI [0.99–1.25], P=0.08).

Conclusions

In this meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials evaluating clinical outcomes, there was no significant differences between BP-DES and DP-DES. We found beneficial effects of BP-DES relative to the first-generation DP-DES, however, there was no statistical differences between BP-DES and newer-generation DP-DES, irrespective of the BP-DES strut thickness.

Pooled odds ratios for clinical outcomes

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Risk factors for major bleeding during prolonged anticoagulation therapy in cancer-associated venous thromboembolisms: from the COMMAND VTE registry

Background/Introduction

Patients with cancer-associated venous thromboembolisms (VTEs) are at a high risk for recurrent VTEs and are recommended to receive prolonged anticoagulation therapy if they are at a low risk for bleeding. However, there are no established risk factors for bleeding during prolonged anticoagulation therapy.

Purpose

We aimed to identify the risk factors for major bleeding during prolonged anticoagulation therapy in cancer-associated VTE patients.

Methods

The COMMAND VTE Registry is a multicenter retrospective registry enrolling 3027 consecutive patients with acute symptomatic VTEs among 29 Japanese centers between January 2010 and August 2014. After excluding those without active cancer (N=2332), patients with major bleeding (N=15), death (N=17), and lost to follow-up (N=10) within 10 days after the diagnosis, and those without anticoagulation therapy beyond 10 days after the diagnosis (N=61), the present study population consisted of 592 cancer-associated VTE patients with anticoagulation therapy beyond 10 days after the diagnosis. The outcome measurement was International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis (ISTH) major bleeding during anticoagulation therapy beyond 10 days, which occurred before the first discontinuation of the anticoagulation therapy. We constructed a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the potential risk factors for major bleeding. As a sensitivity analysis, we used Fine and Gray's method to estimate the HR and 95% CI, taking into account the competing risk of all-cause death.

Results

During a median follow-up period of 199 days, major bleeding occurred in 72 patients (31 patients within 3 months; 41 beyond 3 months). The cumulative incidence of major bleeding was 5.8% at 3-months, 13.8% at 1-year, 17.5% at 2-year, and 28.1% at 5-years. The most frequent major bleeding site was gastrointestinal (47%), followed by intracranial (17%) and genitourinary (11%). Major bleeding tended to occur from the sites of the cancer, however, the sites of the cancer and sites of major bleeding were not necessarily concordant. The multivariable Cox regression model demonstrated that terminal cancer (adjusted HR, 4.17; 95% CI, 2.22–7.85, P<0.001), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR, 1.89; 95% CI 1.06–3.37, P=0.031), and gastrointestinal cancer (adjusted HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.04–3.04, P=0.037) were independently associated with an increased risk of major bleeding. After taking into account the competing risk of all-cause death, the multivariable Cox regression model demonstrated almost consistent results with the main analysis.

Conclusions

Major bleeding events were common during prolonged anticoagulation therapy in real-world cancer-associated VTE patients. Terminal cancer, chronic kidney disease, and gastrointestinal cancer were the independent risk factors for major bleeding.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Research Institute for Production Development, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation

Using 3D printed sinonasal models to visualize and optimize personalized sinonasal sinus irrigation strategies

BACKGROUND

Topical sinus irrigations (neti-pot, squeeze bottles) play a critical role in the management of sinonasal disease. However, due to intricate nasal anatomy, penetration of topical irrigations to targeted sinus regions may be highly variable, and difficult to objectively predict. Variables, including head positions, injection angles, flow rates, etc. may vary significantly depending on the individual's anatomy.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to propose a novel idea: using a 3D printed model of sinonasal cavities to visualize and develop a patient-specific irrigation strategy.

METHODS

As a proof of concept, 3D replicas of one patient's sinonasal cavities pre- and post-surgery were printed with a Form2 SLA 3D printer based on their CT scans. The setup included rubber/silicon seals attached to the model's nostrils to create a watertight seal with the irrigation device and food color dye added for better visualization of irrigation results.

RESULTS

Irrigations were performed on the 3D models with various head positions, injection angles, and flow rates, and were successful to determine the optimal strategy to targeted sinuses. Significant differences were observed between different targeted sinuses and between pre and post-surgery models.

CONCLUSION

With more affordable 3D printing, this technology may potentially improve patient care and patient education, allowing clinicians and patients to develop a personalized irrigation strategy and have visual confirmation.

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M_{⊙}

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85_{-14}^{+21}  M_{⊙} and 66_{-18}^{+17}  M_{⊙} (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65  M_{⊙}. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142_{-16}^{+28}  M_{⊙}, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3_{-2.6}^{+2.4}  Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82_{-0.34}^{+0.28}. The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13_{-0.11}^{+0.30}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.

Conducting a national burden of disease study in South Korea: from past to present

South Korea has been measuring its own burden of disease since the early 2000s and has developed a methodology for its calculation. Since 2012, South Korea has been carrying out disease burden research through the Research and Development Project, supported by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. Because the Korean health insurance system covers the entire population of the country, the Korean National Burden of Disease (KNBD) study is based on individual claims data. Disease prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates, which are the epidemiologic indicators used to calculate burden of disease, are based on actual data, and the incidence-based approach is used for Years Lived with disability (YLD), Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY). The KNBD study is conducted for 260 diseases and injuries and subdivided into sub-national levels. Disability weights (DW) are calculated to reflect the sociocultural characteristics of a disease. For cause-specific DWs, we conducted a self-administered web-based survey for medical doctors and students. Using a ranking method, we calculated cause-specific DWs. For this reason, KNBD study results cannot be directly compared with GBD results.

The major findings of the KNBD study are as follows. In Korea, the DALY rate (per 100,000 people) steadily increased for all income levels. The higher the income, the lower the burden of disease; low-income people had a higher burden of disease than high-income people. However, thyroid cancer, refraction and accommodation disorders had a high burden of disease in the high-income group. Growth in the YLD rate was faster than in the YLL rate. In 2016 the leading causes of disease burden were diabetes mellitus, low back pain, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

We will present South Korea's disease burden calculation methodology and its results and share the efforts to calculate disease burden in other countries.

Enzyme-mediated one-pot synthesis of hydrogel with the polyphenol cross-linker for skin regeneration

Polyphenols can trigger immunity that activates intracellular anti-inflammatory signaling and prevents external infections. In this study, we report the fabrication of chitosan-based hydrogels with epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) using enzyme-mediated one-pot synthesis. The tyrosinase-mediated oxidative reaction of the phenolic rings of EGCG with the primary amines on chitosan results in stable EGCG-chitosan hydrogels. The EGCG concentrations contributed to the cross-linking density and physical properties of EGCG-chitosan hydrogels. Furthermore, EGCG-chitosan hydrogels maintained intrinsic properties such as antibacterial and antioxidant effects. When endotoxin-activated RAW 264.7 macrophage cells were cultured with EGCG-chitosan hydrogels, the hydrogels reduced the inflammatory response of the RAW 264.7 cells. Furthermore, subcutaneous implantation of EGCG-chitosan hydrogels reduced endogenous macrophage and monocyte activation. When the EGCG-chitosan hydrogels were applied to a full-skin defect wound, they facilitated skin regeneration. Our study demonstrates that the one-pot synthesized EGCG-chitosan hydrogels can be applied in broad tissue regeneration applications that require immune modulation.

Incidental early diagnosis of biphasic pulmonary blastoma in a patient with history of stage IV lung adenocarcinoma

Biphasic pulmonary blastoma is a rare but lethal type of lung malignancy with characteristic histology of both epithelial and mesenchymal components. Previously reported cases have been limited to presentation at advanced stages, suggesting that the clinical course of the disease is usually aggressive. Here, we report a case of incidental diagnosis of biphasic pulmonary blastoma by imaging surveillance in a patient previously treated for adenocarcinoma of the lung. The patient was diagnosed with stage 1 disease and underwent successful resection. Next‐generation sequencing (NGS) revealed a high mutation burden, a finding not previously reported in a patient with biphasic pulmonary blastoma.

Mechanoadaptive strain and functional osseointegration of dental implants in rats

Spatiotemporal implant-bone biomechanics and mechanoadaptive strains in peri-implant tissue are poorly understood. Physical and chemical characteristics of an implant-bone complex (IBC) were correlated in three-dimensional space (along the length and around a dental implant) to gather insights into time related integration of the implant with the cortical portion of a jaw bone in a rat. Rats (N = 9) were divided into three experimental groups with three rats per time point; 3-, 11-, and 24-day. All rats were fed crumbled hard pellets mixed with water (soft-food diet) for the first 3 days followed by a hard-food diet with intact hard-food pellets (groups of 11- and 24-day only). Biomechanics of the IBCs harvested from rats at each time point was evaluated by performing mechanical testing in situ in tandem with X-ray imaging. The effect of physical association (contact area) of a loaded implant with adapting peri-implant tissue, and resulting strain within was mapped by using digital volume correlation (DVC) technique. The IBC stiffness at respective time points was correlated with mechanical strain in peri-implant tissue. Results illustrated that IBC stiffness at 11-day was lower than that observed at 3-day. However, at 24-day, IBC stiffness recovered to that which was observed at 3-day. Correlative microscopy and spectroscopy illustrated that the lower IBC stiffness was constituted by softer and less mineralized peri-implant tissue that contained varying expressions of osteoconductive elements. Lower IBC stiffness observed at 11-day was constituted by less mineralized peri-implant tissue with osteoconductive elements that included phosphorus (P) which was co-localized with higher expression of zinc (Zn), and lower expression of calcium (Ca). Higher IBC stiffness at 24-day was constituted by mineralized peri-implant tissue with higher expressions of osteoconductive elements including Ca and P, and lower expressions of Zn. These spatiotemporal correlative maps of peri-implant tissue architecture, heterogeneous distribution of mineral density, and elemental colocalization underscore mechanoadaptive physicochemical properties of peri-implant tissue that facilitate functional osseointegration of an implant. These results provided insights into 1) plausible "prescription" of mechanical loads as an osteoinductive "therapeutic dose" to encourage osteoconductive elements in the peri-implant tissue that would facilitate functional osseointegration of the implant; 2) a "critical temporal window" between 3 and 11 days, and perhaps it is this acute phase during which key candidate regenerative molecules can be harnessed to accelerate osseointegration of an implant under load.

Data on biomechanics and elemental maps of dental implant-bone complexes in rats

Implant-bone biomechanics and mechanoadaptation of peri‑implant tissue in space (around and along the length of an implant) and time (3-, 11-, and 24-day following implantation) are important for functional osseointegration of dental implants. Spatiotemporal shifts in biomechanics of implant-bone complex in rat maxillae were correlated with maximum (tensile) and minimum (compressive) principal strain profiles in peri‑implant tissue using a hybrid model; biomechanics in situ paired with digital volume correlation. Spatiotemporal changes in elemental counts and their association with mineral density of the peri‑implant tissue were mapped using electron dispersive X-ray and X-ray fluorescence microprobe techniques. Data provided within are related to biomechanical testing of an implant-bone complex in situ. Data also highlight the power of correlating elemental colocalization with tension and compression regions of the peri‑implant tissues to explain spatiotemporal mechanoadaptation of implant-bone complexes. Further interpretation of data is provided in "Mechanoadaptive Strain and Functional Osseointegration of Dental Implants in Rats [1]."

0791 Effects of Low Frequency Electrical Stimulators as Nonpharmacological Treatment in Restless Legs Syndrome

Introduction

Non-pharmacological treatments for restless legs syndrome (RLS) is a treatment option for patients who have not yet started medical treatment, who do not respond to their prescribed medication, or who suffer from adverse effects of medication. This study aims to investigate the clinical effectiveness of low frequency electronic stimulators (LFES) as a non-pharmacological treatment.

Methods

This is a randomized, single-blind study. After screening 64 patients according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, a total of 46 patients participated in the study. The participants were separated into an active group and a sham group with 22 and 24 members, respectively. The stimulation was administered using the tapping mode (3Hz) present on the machines used, and symptom changes were measured in both groups. The effects of the stimuli were analyzed with repeated measures ANOVA.

Results

Symptom severity was significantly reduced in the active group, and showed significant interaction effects in the time multiple group. Although both the active and sham groups reported improved symptoms upon receiving longer periods of treatment, the effect of the LFES was greater in the active group.

Conclusion

Analyzing the effects of LFES by dividing the active and sham groups revealed that LFES treatment resulted in symptom improvement when using effective stimulation intensity. LFES can be a non-pharmacological treatment option for RLS.

Support

None

Parkin expression reverses mitochondrial dysfunction in fused in sarcoma-induced amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Fused in sarcoma (FUS) is a DNA/RNA-binding protein associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal lobar degeneration. The exact molecular mechanisms by which FUS results in neurotoxicity have not yet been fully elucidated. Here, we found that parkin is a genetic suppressor of defective phenotypes induced by exogenous human wild type FUS in Drosophila. Although parkin overexpression did not modulate the FUS protein expression level, the locomotive defects in FUS-expressing larvae and adult flies were rescued by parkin expression. We found that FUS expression in muscle tissues resulted in a reduction of the levels and assembly of mitochondrial complex I and III subunits, as well as decreased ATP. Remarkably, expression of parkin suppressed these mitochondrial dysfunctions. Our results indicate parkin as a neuroprotective regulator of FUS-induced proteinopathy by recovering the protein levels of mitochondrial complexes I and III. Our findings on parkin-mediated neuroprotection may expand our understanding of FUS-induced ALS pathogenesis.

P1416 Clinical importance of consecutive transthoracic echocardiography in the patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Funding Acknowledgements

nothing

OnBehalf

nothing

Background

prediction of outcomes Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) have been robustly analyzed with echocardiography. However, there is limited data of serial follow-up (FU) transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) to predict outcomes in patients with HCM.

Objectives

This study aim is to discover clinical predictors associated with consecutive TTE follow-up in patients with HCM.

Methods

From 2010 to 2016, 162 patients with HCM were enrolled retrospectively. Concentric LVH and others systolic disease related to wall thickness were excluded. Index TTE (baseline) was measured when firstly admitted in our hospital. FU TTE was analyzed at the end of follow-up, defined as the last recorded value in patients who did not develop events or the last recorded value before events developed.

Results

The average of FU TTE and clinical FU period was 3.7 ± 2.0 years. Clinical outcomes were defined as stroke, syncope, heart failure, arrhythmia and death. Interestingly, only baseline TR V max was a predictor for clinical outcome whereas the others echo parameters were not associated with events (Table 1). KM curve showed the TR Vmax ≥2.5m/s was also significant (log rank = 0.008, Fig 1.)

Conclusions Our study showed short-term FU TTE did not bring clinician with clinical benefits in the aspect of prediction for events. Only baseline TR V max was good correlation with cardiovascular outcomes and even in the survival analysis.

Serial TTE and changed values Total N = 162 index TTE (baseline) FU TTE Change of FU per year event no event p-value event no event p-value event no event p-value IVDd, mm 14 ± 4 15 ± 5 0.500 15 ± 5 14 ± 5 0.758 0.23 ± 0.51 -0.07 ± 1.27 0.200 LVIDd, mm 47 ± 5 48 ± 6 0.256 47 ± 7 48 ± 6 0.560 -0.22 ± 2.79 0.10 ± 2.27 0.444 LVEF, % 62 ± 5 61 ± 7 0.379 61 ± 6 61 ± 10 0.927 -0.43 ± 3.10 -0.04 ± 4.94 0.620 LAVI 43 ± 9 43 ± 8 0.879 57 ± 27 58 ± 23 0.849 0.53 ± 14.5 3.11 ± 7.2 0.134 EA ratio 0.9 ± 0.6 0.9 ± 0.6 0.782 1.0 ± 0.8 0.9 ± 0.6 0.595 -0.02 ± 0.76 0.003 ± 0.027 0.594 DT,ms 196 ± 58 201 ± 62 0.603 203 ± 91 217 ± 89 0.370 17 ± 57 5 ± 40 0.154 septal e` 4.4 ± 2.1 4.2 ± 1.6 0.585 4.4 ± 1.6 4.6 ± 1.7 0.438 0.24 ± 0.91 0.05 ± 0.65 0.190 E of e` 17 ± 11 17 ± 23 0.993 15 ± 9 15 ± 6 0.726 -0.48 ± 4.42 -1.66 ± 22.78 0.728 TR velocity 2.6 ± 0.5 2.4 ± 0.4 0.012 2.7 ± 0.6 2.6 ± 0.4 0.604 0.05 ± 0.30 0.04 ± 0.18 0.905 Max wall thickness 17 ± 3 18 ± 3 0.137 17 ± 4 17 ± 3 0.888 -0.01 ± 2.19 -0.18 ± 1.14 0.522

Abstract P1416 Figure. TR Vmax and CV outcomes in the KM curve

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Impact of genomic alterations on lapatinib treatment outcome and cell-free genomic landscape during HER2 therapy in HER2+ gastric cancer patients

Background

To identify predictive markers for responders in lapatinib-treated patients and to demonstrate molecular changes during lapatinib treatment via cell-free genomics.

Patients and methods

We prospectively evaluated the efficacy of combining lapatinib with capecitabine and oxaliplatin as first line neoadjuvant therapy in patients with previously untreated, HER2-overexpressing advanced gastric cancer. A parallel biomarker study was conducted by simultaneously performing immunohistochemistry and next-generation sequencing (NGS) with tumor and blood samples.

Results

Complete response was confirmed in 7/32 patients (21.8%), 2 of whom received radical surgery with pathologic-confirmed complete response. Fifteen partial responses (46.8%) were observed, resulting in a 68.6% overall response rate. NGS of the 16 tumor specimens demonstrated that the most common co-occurring copy number alteration was CCNE1 amplification, which was present in 40% of HER2+ tumors. The relationship between CCNE1 amplification and lack of response to HER2-targeted therapy trended toward statistical significance (66.7% of non-responders versus 22.2% of responders harbored CCNE1 amplification; P = 0.08). Patients with high level ERBB2 amplification by NGS were more likely to respond to therapy, compared with patients with low level ERBB2 amplification (P = 0.02). Analysis of cfDNA showed that detectable ERBB2 copy number amplification in plasma was predictive to the response (100%, response rate) and changes in plasma-detected genomic alterations were associated with lapatinib sensitivity and/or resistance. The follow-up cfDNA genomics at disease progression demonstrated that there are emergences of other genomic aberrations such as MYC, EGFR, FGFR2 and MET amplifications.

Conclusions

The present study showed that HER2+ GC patients respond differently according to concomitant genomic aberrations beyond ERBB2, high ERBB2 amplification by NGS or cfDNA can be a positive predictor for patient selection, and tumor genomic alterations change significantly during targeted agent therapy.

The evolving microenvironment of the human hepatocyte: Healthy vs. cirrhotic liver vs. isolated cells

The study of the liver microenvironment and hepatocyte's response to this environment in the setting of healthy liver, cirrhotic liver or cultured primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) addresses key questions for the development of novel liver therapies and predicts relevance of ex vivo PHHs models in liver biology. This study compared quantitative gene and protein expression of the inflammatory profile, oxidative stress response, angiogenesis and homing mechanisms in the biopsies of healthy and cirrhotic human livers and isolated PHHs. These profiles were correlated with the metabolic health of liver and PHHs defined by albumin production. The analysis demonstrated that cirrhotic liver and PHHs exhibited a distinct upregulation of the pro-inflammatory, oxidative stress and homing mechanism markers when compared to normal liver. The upregulation of the oxidative stress markers in PHHs inversely correlated with the albumin production. PHHs had diverse secretion of matrix metalloproteinases and their inhibitors, reflective of the cellular response to non-physiological culture conditions. The current study suggests that ex vivo PHHs manifest adaptive behavior by upregulating stress mechanisms (similar to the cirrhotic liver), downregulating normal metabolic function and upregulating matrix turnover. The ex vivo profile of PHHs may limit their therapeutic functionality and metabolic capacity to serve as in vitro metabolism and toxicology models.

Search for Subsolar Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's Second Observing Run

We present a search for subsolar mass ultracompact objects in data obtained during Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In contrast to a previous search of Advanced LIGO data from the first observing run, this search includes the effects of component spin on the gravitational waveform. We identify no viable gravitational-wave candidates consistent with subsolar mass ultracompact binaries with at least one component between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙}. We use the null result to constrain the binary merger rate of (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 3.7×10^{5}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1} and the binary merger rate of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 5.2×10^{3}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}. Subsolar mass ultracompact objects are not expected to form via known stellar evolution channels, though it has been suggested that primordial density fluctuations or particle dark matter with cooling mechanisms and/or nuclear interactions could form black holes with subsolar masses. Assuming a particular primordial black hole (PBH) formation model, we constrain a population of merging 0.2  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 16% of the dark matter density and a population of merging 1.0  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 2% of the dark matter density. We discuss how constraints on the merger rate and dark matter fraction may be extended to arbitrary black hole population models that predict subsolar mass binaries.