Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Recent trends in incidence, geographical distribution, and survival of papillary thyroid cancer in France

BACKGROUND

Over the past few decades, the incidence of thyroid cancer has dramatically increased in many countries. This increase was mainly seen in papillary cancer. The role of diagnostic practices and the effects of other risk factors were suggested to explain this increase. We provide a descriptive analysis in terms of changes in incidence, geographical distribution, and survival to check the relevance of assumptions about the increase.

METHODS

A detailed analysis of changes in incidence recorded in French cancer registries between 1982 and 2010 was performed taking into account age, period, and birth cohort. The geographical distribution of the incidence in the 2006-2010 period was estimated from the standardized incidence ratios. The net survival was estimated to evaluate the effects of sex, age, and period of diagnosis in patients diagnosed between 1989 and 2004 and followed-up until 2013.

RESULTS

The incidence of papillary cancer has increased sharply over the 1982-2010 period; the average annual rate of increase was 7.8% in men and 7.2% in women. The increase has slowed in the recent period in people aged less than 50 at the time of diagnosis. It has also slowed in the cohorts born 1945 and after. There was a strong geographic disparity in incidence between areas covered by cancer registries. Finally, the net survival was very high; the 10-year net survival was 96% and improved progressively from 82% in patients diagnosed between 1989 and 1993 to 95% in those diagnosed between 1999 and 2004.

CONCLUSION

The increased incidence results most probably from the effect of medical practice, although other risk factors seem also involved, but to a lesser extent. The increase seems to have slowed down in the recent years, especially in the youngest age groups. This observation suggests a recent trend towards saturation of the effects of medical practices in post-1945 cohorts associated with an effect of the gradual dissemination of the recommendations relative to the management of thyroid nodules.

Impact of anatomical location of lower limb venous thrombus on the risk of subsequent cancer

After a proximal deep-vein thrombosis (P-DVT), the risk of diagnosis of a previously unsuspected cancer is high. Isolated distal DVT (iD-DVT; i.e. infra-popliteal DVT without pulmonary embolism [PE]) and isolated superficial-vein thrombosis (iSVT; i.e. without concomitant DVT and PE) are at least as frequent as P-DVT but their association with subsequent cancer is uncertain. We exploited data from the OPTIMEV prospective, observational, multicentre study to i) compare the risk of subsequent cancer three years after a first objectively confirmed iSVT, iD-DVT and iP-DVT in patients without a prior history of cancer or of venous thromboembolism, ii) assess predictors of subsequent cancer in cases of iD-DVT. The overall cumulative rates of cancer among the 304 patients with iSVT, 536 patients with iD-DVT, and 327 patients with iP-DVT were similar (3.4% 95% confidence interval [1.8-6.2], 3.9% [2.5-5.9] and 3.9% [2.3-6.8], respectively), regardless of whether the index venous thromboembolic event was unprovoked or associated with a major transient risk factor. Neither anatomical (muscular vs deep-calf DVT) nor ultrasound scan characteristics (number of thrombosed veins, clot diameter under compression) seemed strongly associated with the risk of cancer in cases of iD-DVT. In patients managed in routine practice, all the different clinical expressions of lower limb venous thromboembolism are associated with a similar risk of subsequent cancer. From a clinical practice point of view, this suggests that cancer screening, without discussing the necessity, or not, of such screening, should not differ between a deep-proximal, deep-distal or superficial location of thrombosis.

How to interpret and choose a Bayesian spatial model and a Poisson regression model in the context of describing small area cancer risks variations

BACKGROUND

The statistical Bayesian approach is widely used in disease mapping and Poisson regression. Results differ depending on the underlying hypothesis. Our objective is to give a comprehensive presentation of the tools that can be used to interpret results and choose between the different hypotheses. Data from the Isere cancer registry (France) illustrate this presentation.

METHOD

We consider, first, Bayesian models for disease mapping. Classic heterogeneity (Potthoff-Whithinghill statistic) and spatial autocorrelation tests (Moran statistic) of the SIRs, the DIC criteria of the different Bayesian models and finally the comparison of the empirical variance of the unstructured and structured heterogeneity components of the BYM model are considered. The last two criteria are considered for Bayesian Poisson regression including a covariate. Mapping the components of the BYM model with a covariate is also considered.

RESULTS

Four cancer sites (prostate, lung, colon-rectum and bladder) in men diagnosed during the 1998-2007 period are used to illustrate our presentation. We show that the different criteria used to interpret and to choose a model give coherent results.

CONCLUSION

A relevant interpretation of results is a necessary step in choosing the best-adapted Bayesian model. This choice is easy to make with criteria such as the DIC. The comparison of the empirical variance of the unstructured and structured heterogeneity components of the BYM model is also informative.

Cancer prevalence in United States, Nordic Countries, Italy, Australia, and France: an analysis of geographic variability

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this study were to quantitatively assess the geographic heterogeneity of cancer prevalence in selected Western Countries and to explore the associations between its determinants.

METHODS

For 20 cancer sites, 5-year cancer prevalence, incidence, and survival were observed and age standardised for the mid 2000s in the United States, Nordic European Countries, Italy, Australia, and France.

RESULTS

In Italy, 5-year crude prevalence for all cancers was 1.9% in men and 1.7% in women, while it was ∼1.5% in all other countries and sexes. After adjustment for the different age distribution of the populations, cancer prevalence in the United States was higher (20% in men and 10% in women) than elsewhere. For all cancers combined, the geographic heterogeneities were limited, though relevant for specific cancers (e.g., prostate, showing >30% higher prevalence in the United States, or lung, showing >50% higher prevalence in USA women than in other countries). For all countries, the correlations between differences of prevalence and differences of incidence were >0.9, while prevalence and survival were less consistently correlated.

CONCLUSION

Geographic differences and magnitude of crude cancer prevalence were more strongly associated with incidence rates, influenced by population ageing, than with survival rates. These estimates will be helpful in allocating appropriate resources.