Health safety nets can break cycles of poverty and disease: a stochastic ecological model

The persistence of extreme poverty is increasingly attributed to dynamic interactions between biophysical processes and economics, though there remains a dearth of integrated theoretical frameworks that can inform policy. Here, we present a stochastic model of disease-driven poverty traps. Whereas deterministic models can result in poverty traps that can only be broken by substantial external changes to the initial conditions, in the stochastic model there is always some probability that a population will leave or enter a poverty trap. We show that a 'safety net', defined as an externally enforced minimum level of health or economic conditions, can guarantee ultimate escape from a poverty trap, even if the safety net is set within the basin of attraction of the poverty trap, and even if the safety net is only in the form of a public health measure. Whereas the deterministic model implies that small improvements in initial conditions near the poverty-trap equilibrium are futile, the stochastic model suggests that the impact of changes in the location of the safety net on the rate of development may be strongest near the poverty-trap equilibrium.

Poverty trap formed by the ecology of infectious diseases

While most of the world has enjoyed exponential economic growth, more than one-sixth of the world is today roughly as poor as their ancestors were many generations ago. Widely accepted general explanations for the persistence of such poverty have been elusive and are needed by the international development community. Building on a well-established model of human infectious diseases, we show how formally integrating simple economic and disease ecology models can naturally give rise to poverty traps, where initial economic and epidemiological conditions determine the long-term trajectory of the health and economic development of a society. This poverty trap may therefore be broken by improving health conditions of the population. More generally, we demonstrate that simple human ecological models can help explain broad patterns of modern economic organization.

Herd immunity acquired indirectly from interactions between the ecology of infectious diseases, demography and economics

Patterns of morbidity and mortality around the globe are determined by interactions between infectious diseases and systematic human socioeconomic processes. The most obvious of these patterns is that the greatest burdens of infectious diseases are found among the poor, who lack the basic resources for disease prevention and treatment. Yet, it is becoming increasingly clear that many infectious diseases are themselves causes of poverty owing to their effects on labour productivity. A particularly subtle phenomenon that receives little attention in the epidemiology literature and is especially important for poor communities is the role of the birth rate as an important direct cause of high disease burdens. Because of their high rates of transmission and life-long immunity, the persistence of many child diseases such as measles relies on high rates of reproduction as their source of susceptible individuals. Thus, there are significant direct health benefits of lower fertility rates, which are further enhanced by interactions with economic processes. Indeed, fertility, poverty and disease all interact with each other in important and predictable ways that can be built into traditional disease ecology models. We present such a model here that provides insights into the long-term effect of policy interventions. For example, because of indirect income effects, herd immunity may be acquired with lower vaccine coverage than previously thought. Reductions in the disease burden can also occur through lower fertility. Our model thus provides a disease ecology framework that is useful for the analysis of demographic transitions.

Host Life‐History Strategy Explains Pathogen‐Induced Sterility

Virulence is often equated with pathogen-induced mortality, even though loss of fecundity is also common. But while the former may be understood as a simple consequence of lost host resources for the purposes of pathogen transmission, pathogen-induced sterility is often not associated with changes in host mortality. As a result, a separate literature has emerged to explain fecundity effects of parasitism that has not been integrated into general theories of the evolution of virulence. Here, I present a model of pathogen-induced sterility that is based on the assumption that hosts and pathogens vie for the same host resources for both reproduction and maintenance. Loss of host fecundity can then be explained by the host compensating for its future loss of resources, before infection. Such preinfection ;;fecundity compensation" may often cause preinfection investment in maintenance to be as low as postinfection levels, despite a loss of total host resources after infection. Thus, sterility is simply explained as a host life-history strategy in a system where the pathogen necessarily steals host resources for its own transmission. In certain circumstances, the pathogen may even be able to manipulate the host to redirect resources away from reproduction and toward maintenance through castration, causing gigantism.

Higher disease prevalence can induce greater sociality: a game theoretic coevolutionary model

There is growing evidence that communicable diseases constitute a strong selective force on the evolution of social systems. It has been suggested that infectious diseases may determine upper limits of host sociality by, for example, inducing territoriality or early juvenile dispersal. Here we use game theory to model the evolution of host sociality in the context of communicable diseases. Our model is then augmented with the evolution of virulence to determine coevolutionarily stable strategies of host sociality and pathogen virulence. In contrast to a controversial hypothesis by Ewald (1994), our analysis indicates that pathogens may become more virulent when contact rates are low, and their prevalence can ultimately induce greater sociality.