Diagnostic performance of 64-multidetector row coronary computed tomographic angiography for evaluation of coronary artery stenosis in individuals without known coronary artery disease: results from the prospective multicenter ACCURACY (Assessment by Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography of Individuals Undergoing Invasive Coronary Angiography) trial

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of electrocardiographically gated 64-multidetector row coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) in individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAD).

BACKGROUND

CCTA is a promising method for detection and exclusion of obstructive coronary artery stenosis. To date, no prospective multicenter trial has evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of 64-multidetector row CCTA in populations with intermediate prevalence of CAD.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated subjects with chest pain at 16 sites who were clinically referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). CCTAs were scored by consensus of 3 independent blinded readers. The ICAs were evaluated for coronary stenosis based on quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). No subjects were excluded for baseline coronary artery calcium score or body mass index.

RESULTS

A total of 230 subjects underwent both CCTA and ICA (59.1% male; mean age: 57 +/- 10 years). On a patient-based model, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values to detect > or =50% or > or =70% stenosis were 95%, 83%, 64%, and 99%, respectively, and 94%, 83%, 48%, 99%, respectively. No differences in sensitivity and specificity were noted for nonobese compared with obese subjects or for heart rates < or =65 beats/min compared with >65 beats/min, whereas calcium scores >400 reduced specificity significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective multicenter trial of chest pain patients without known CAD, 64-multidetector row CCTA possesses high diagnostic accuracy for detection of obstructive coronary stenosis at both thresholds of 50% and 70% stenosis. Importantly, the 99% negative predictive value at the patient and vessel level establishes CCTA as an effective noninvasive alternative to ICA to rule out obstructive coronary artery stenosis. (A Study of Computed Tomography [CT] for Evaluation of Coronary Artery Blockages in Typical or Atypical Chest Pain; NCT00348569).

HIV infection and the risk of acute myocardial infarction

IMPORTANCE

Whether people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at an increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared with uninfected people is not clear. Without demographically and behaviorally similar uninfected comparators and without uniformly measured clinical data on risk factors and fatal and nonfatal AMI events, any potential association between HIV status and AMI may be confounded.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether HIV is associated with an increased risk of AMI after adjustment for all standard Framingham risk factors among a large cohort of HIV-positive and demographically and behaviorally similar (ie, similar prevalence of smoking, alcohol, and cocaine use) uninfected veterans in care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Participants in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Virtual Cohort from April 1, 2003, through December 31, 2009.

PARTICIPANTS

After eliminating those with baseline cardiovascular disease, we analyzed data on HIV status, age, sex, race/ethnicity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking, hepatitis C infection, body mass index, renal disease, anemia, substance use, CD4 cell count, HIV-1 RNA, antiretroviral therapy, and incidence of AMI.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Acute myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

We analyzed data on 82 459 participants. During a median follow-up of 5.9 years, there were 871 AMI events. Across 3 decades of age, the mean (95% CI) AMI events per 1000 person-years was consistently and significantly higher for HIV-positive compared with uninfected veterans: for those aged 40 to 49 years, 2.0 (1.6-2.4) vs 1.5 (1.3-1.7); for those aged 50 to 59 years, 3.9 (3.3-4.5) vs 2.2 (1.9-2.5); and for those aged 60 to 69 years, 5.0 (3.8-6.7) vs 3.3 (2.6-4.2) (P < .05 for all). After adjusting for Framingham risk factors, comorbidities, and substance use, HIV-positive veterans had an increased risk of incident AMI compared with uninfected veterans (hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.27-1.72). An excess risk remained among those achieving an HIV-1 RNA level less than 500 copies/mL compared with uninfected veterans in time-updated analyses (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.17-1.66).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Infection with HIV is associated with a 50% increased risk of AMI beyond that explained by recognized risk factors.

Long-term prognosis associated with coronary calcification: observations from a registry of 25,253 patients

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjusted multivariable models that include risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores measured with electron-beam tomography in asymptomatic patients for the prediction of all-cause mortality.

BACKGROUND

Several smaller studies have documented the efficacy of CAC testing for assessment of cardiovascular risk. Larger studies with longer follow-up will lend strength to the hypothesis that CAC testing will improve outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and safety of primary prevention efforts.

METHODS

We used an observational outcome study of a cohort of 25,253 consecutive, asymptomatic individuals referred by their primary physician for CAC scanning to assess cardiovascular risk. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for coronary disease and CAC scores.

RESULTS

The frequency of CAC scores was 44%, 14%, 20%, 13%, 6%, and 4% for scores of 0, 1 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 400, 401 to 1,000, and >1,000, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 6.8 +/- 3 years, the death rate was 2% (510 deaths). The CAC was an independent predictor of mortality in a multivariable model controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, and cardiac risk factors (model chi-square = 2,017, p < 0.0001). The addition of CAC to traditional risk factors increased the concordance index significantly (0.61 for risk factors vs. 0.81 for the CAC score, p < 0.0001). Risk-adjusted relative risk ratios for CAC were 2.2-, 4.5-, 6.4-, 9.2-, 10.4-, and 12.5-fold for scores of 11 to 100, 101 to 299, 300 to 399, 400 to 699, 700 to 999, and >1,000, respectively (p < 0.0001), when compared with a score of 0. Ten-year survival (after adjustment for risk factors, including age) was 99.4% for a CAC score of 0 and worsened to 87.8% for a score of >1,000 (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This large observational data series shows that CAC provides independent incremental information in addition to traditional risk factors in the prediction of all-cause mortality.

Diagnostic accuracy of fractional flow reserve from anatomic CT angiography

CONTEXT

Coronary computed tomographic (CT) angiography is a noninvasive anatomic test for diagnosis of coronary stenosis that does not determine whether a stenosis causes ischemia. In contrast, fractional flow reserve (FFR) is a physiologic measure of coronary stenosis expressing the amount of coronary flow still attainable despite the presence of a stenosis, but it requires an invasive procedure. Noninvasive FFR computed from CT (FFR(CT)) is a novel method for determining the physiologic significance of coronary artery disease (CAD), but its ability to identify ischemia has not been adequately examined to date.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic performance of FFR(CT) plus CT for diagnosis of hemodynamically significant coronary stenosis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Multicenter diagnostic performance study involving 252 stable patients with suspected or known CAD from 17 centers in 5 countries who underwent CT, invasive coronary angiography (ICA), FFR, and FFR(CT) between October 2010 and October 2011. Computed tomography, ICA, FFR, and FFR(CT) were interpreted in blinded fashion by independent core laboratories. Accuracy of FFR(CT) plus CT for diagnosis of ischemia was compared with an invasive FFR reference standard. Ischemia was defined by an FFR or FFR(CT) of 0.80 or less, while anatomically obstructive CAD was defined by a stenosis of 50% or larger on CT and ICA.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary study outcome assessed whether FFR(CT) plus CT could improve the per-patient diagnostic accuracy such that the lower boundary of the 1-sided 95% confidence interval of this estimate exceeded 70%.

RESULTS

Among study participants, 137 (54.4%) had an abnormal FFR determined by ICA. On a per-patient basis, diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of FFR(CT) plus CT were 73% (95% CI, 67%-78%), 90% (95% CI, 84%-95%), 54% (95% CI, 46%-83%), 67% (95% CI, 60%-74%), and 84% (95% CI, 74%-90%), respectively. Compared with obstructive CAD diagnosed by CT alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.74), FFR(CT) was associated with improved discrimination (AUC, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75-0.86; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Although the study did not achieve its prespecified primary outcome goal for the level of per-patient diagnostic accuracy, use of noninvasive FFR(CT) plus CT among stable patients with suspected or known CAD was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy and discrimination vs CT alone for the diagnosis of hemodynamically significant CAD when FFR determined at the time of ICA was the reference standard.

Genetic associations with valvular calcification and aortic stenosis

BACKGROUND

Limited information is available regarding genetic contributions to valvular calcification, which is an important precursor of clinical valve disease.

METHODS

We determined genomewide associations with the presence of aortic-valve calcification (among 6942 participants) and mitral annular calcification (among 3795 participants), as detected by computed tomographic (CT) scanning; the study population for this analysis included persons of white European ancestry from three cohorts participating in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (discovery population). Findings were replicated in independent cohorts of persons with either CT-detected valvular calcification or clinical aortic stenosis.

RESULTS

One SNP in the lipoprotein(a) (LPA) locus (rs10455872) reached genomewide significance for the presence of aortic-valve calcification (odds ratio per allele, 2.05; P=9.0×10(-10)), a finding that was replicated in additional white European, African-American, and Hispanic-American cohorts (P<0.05 for all comparisons). Genetically determined Lp(a) levels, as predicted by LPA genotype, were also associated with aortic-valve calcification, supporting a causal role for Lp(a). In prospective analyses, LPA genotype was associated with incident aortic stenosis (hazard ratio per allele, 1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32 to 2.15) and aortic-valve replacement (hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.27) in a large Swedish cohort; the association with incident aortic stenosis was also replicated in an independent Danish cohort. Two SNPs (rs17659543 and rs13415097) near the proinflammatory gene IL1F9 achieved genomewide significance for mitral annular calcification (P=1.5×10(-8) and P=1.8×10(-8), respectively), but the findings were not replicated consistently.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variation in the LPA locus, mediated by Lp(a) levels, is associated with aortic-valve calcification across multiple ethnic groups and with incident clinical aortic stenosis. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others.).

Survival predictability of time-varying indicators of bone disease in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Although renal osteodystrophy and vitamin D analogs may be related to survival in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, most studies have examined associations between baseline values and survival without accounting for variations in clinical and laboratory measures over time. We examined associations between survival and quarterly laboratory values and administered paricalcitol in a 2-year (July 2001-June 2003) cohort of 58,058 MHD patients from all DaVita dialysis clinics in USA using both time-dependent Cox models with repeated measures and fixed-covariate Cox models with only baseline values. Whereas hypercalcemia and hyperphosphatemia were robust predictors of higher death risk in all models, the association between serum calcium and mortality was different in time-varying models. Changes in baseline calcium and phosphorus values beyond the Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative recommended targets were associated with increased mortality. Associations between high serum parathyroid hormone and increased death risk were masked by case-mix characteristics of MHD patients. Time-varying serum alkaline phosphatase had an incremental association with mortality. Administration of any dose of paricalcitol was associated with improved survival in time-varying models. Controlling for nutritional markers may introduce overadjustment bias owing to their strong collinearity with osteodystrophy surrogates. Whereas both time-dependent and fixed-covariate Cox models result in similar associations between osteodystrophy indicators and survival, subtle but potentially clinically relevant differences between the two models exist, probably because fixed models do not account for variations of osteodystrophy indices and changes in medication dose over time.

Coronary Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a highly specific feature of coronary atherosclerosis. On the basis of single-center and multicenter clinical and population-based studies with short-term and long-term outcomes data (up to 15-year follow-up), CAC scoring has emerged as a widely available, consistent, and reproducible means of assessing risk for major cardiovascular outcomes, especially useful in asymptomatic people for planning primary prevention interventions such as statins and aspirin. CAC testing in asymptomatic populations is cost effective across a broad range of baseline risk. This review summarizes evidence concerning CAC, including its pathobiology, modalities for detection, predictive role, use in prediction scoring algorithms, CAC progression, evidence that CAC changes the clinical approach to the patient and patient behavior, novel applications of CAC, future directions in scoring CAC scans, and new CAC guidelines.

Age- and sex-related differences in all-cause mortality risk based on coronary computed tomography angiography findings results from the International Multicenter CONFIRM (Coronary CT Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter Registry) of 23,854 patients without known coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

We examined mortality in relation to coronary artery disease (CAD) as assessed by ≥64-detector row coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA).

BACKGROUND

Although CCTA has demonstrated high diagnostic performance for detection and exclusion of obstructive CAD, the prognostic findings of CAD by CCTA have not, to date, been examined for age- and sex-specific outcomes.

METHODS

We evaluated a consecutive cohort of 24,775 patients undergoing ≥64-detector row CCTA between 2005 and 2009 without known CAD who met inclusion criteria. In these patients, CAD by CCTA was defined as none (0% stenosis), mild (1% to 49% stenosis), moderate (50% to 69% stenosis), or severe (≥70% stenosis). CAD severity was judged on a per-patient, per-vessel, and per-segment basis. Time to mortality was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

At a 2.3 ± 1.1-year follow-up, 404 deaths had occurred. In risk-adjusted analysis, both per-patient obstructive (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.94 to 3.49; p < 0.0001) and nonobstructive (HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.16; p = 0.002) CAD conferred increased risk of mortality compared with patients without evident CAD. Incident mortality was associated with a dose-response relationship to the number of coronary vessels exhibiting obstructive CAD, with increasing risk observed for nonobstructive (HR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.20 to 2.19; p = 0.002), obstructive 1-vessel (HR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.43 to 2.82; p < 0.0001), 2-vessel (HR: 2.92; 95% CI: 2.00 to 4.25; p < 0.0001), or 3-vessel or left main (HR: 3.70; 95% CI: 2.58 to 5.29; p < 0.0001) CAD. Importantly, the absence of CAD by CCTA was associated with a low rate of incident death (annualized death rate: 0.28%). When stratified by age <65 years versus ≥65 years, younger patients experienced higher hazards for death for 2-vessel (HR: 4.00; 95% CI: 2.16 to 7.40; p < 0.0001 vs. HR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.51 to 4.02; p = 0.0003) and 3-vessel (HR: 6.19; 95% CI: 3.43 to 11.2; p < 0.0001 vs. HR: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.95 to 4.92; p < 0.0001) CAD. The relative hazard for 3-vessel CAD (HR: 4.21; 95% CI: 2.47 to 7.18; p < 0.0001 vs. HR: 3.27; 95% CI: 1.96 to 5.45; p < 0.0001) was higher for women as compared with men.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals without known CAD, nonobstructive and obstructive CAD by CCTA are associated with higher rates of mortality, with risk profiles differing for age and sex. Importantly, absence of CAD is associated with a very favorable prognosis.

Coronary artery calcification compared with carotid intima-media thickness in the prediction of cardiovascular disease incidence: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) are noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis that consensus panels have recommended as possible additions to risk factor assessment for predicting the probability of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence. Our objective was to assess whether maximum carotid IMT or CAC (Agatston score) is the better predictor of incident CVD.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of subjects aged 45 to 84 years in 4 ethnic groups, who were initially free of CVD (n = 6698) was performed, with standardized carotid IMT and CAC measures at baseline, in 6 field centers of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The main outcome measure was the risk of incident CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and fatal CVD) over a maximum of 5.3 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

There were 222 CVD events during follow-up. Coronary artery calcium was associated more strongly than carotid IMT with the risk of incident CVD. After adjustment for each other (CAC score and IMT) and age, race, and sex [corrected], the hazard ratio of CVD increased 2.1-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.5) for each 1-standard deviation (SD) increment of log-transformed CAC score, vs 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1-1.4) for each 1-SD increment of the maximum IMT. For coronary heart disease, the hazard ratios per 1-SD increment increased 2.5-fold (95% CI, 2.1-3.1) for CAC score and 1.2-fold (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) for IMT. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also suggested that CAC score was a better predictor of incident CVD than was IMT, with areas under the curve of 0.81 vs 0.78, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although whether and how to clinically use bioimaging tests of subclinical atherosclerosis remains a topic of debate, this study found that CAC score is a better predictor of subsequent CVD events than carotid IMT.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of absence of coronary artery calcification

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we systematically assessed the diagnostic and prognostic value of absence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals.

BACKGROUND

Presence of CAC is a well-established marker of coronary plaque burden and is associated with a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Absence of CAC has been suggested to be associated with a very low risk of significant coronary artery disease, as well as minimal risk of future events.

METHODS

We searched online databases (e.g., PubMed and MEDLINE) for original research articles published in English between January 1990 and March 2008 examining the diagnostic and prognostic utility of CAC.

RESULTS

A systematic review of published articles revealed 49 studies that fulfilled our criteria for inclusion. These included 13 studies assessing the relationship of CAC with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in 64,873 asymptomatic patients. In this cohort, 146 of 25,903 patients without CAC (0.56%) had a cardiovascular event during a mean follow-up period of 51 months. In the 7 studies assessing the prognostic value of CAC in a symptomatic population, 1.80% of patients without CAC had a cardiovascular event. Overall, 18 studies demonstrated that the presence of any CAC had a pooled sensitivity and negative predictive value of 98% and 93%, respectively, for detection of significant coronary artery disease on invasive coronary angiography. In 4,870 individuals undergoing myocardial perfusion and CAC testing, in the absence of CAC, only 6% demonstrated any sign of ischemia. Finally, 3 studies demonstrated that absence of CAC had a negative predictive value of 99% for ruling out acute coronary syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of our review of more than 85,000 patients, we conclude that the absence of CAC is associated with a very low risk of future cardiovascular events, with modest incremental value of other diagnostic tests in this very low-risk group.

10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Coronary Artery Calcium and Traditional Risk Factors: Derivation in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) With Validation in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study)

BACKGROUND

Several studies have demonstrated the tremendous potential of using coronary artery calcium (CAC) in addition to traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction. However, to date, no risk score incorporating CAC has been developed.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to derive and validate a novel risk score to estimate 10-year CHD risk using CAC and traditional risk factors.

METHODS

Algorithm development was conducted in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective community-based cohort study of 6,814 participants age 45 to 84 years, who were free of clinical heart disease at baseline and followed for 10 years. MESA is sex balanced and included 39% non-Hispanic whites, 12% Chinese Americans, 28% African Americans, and 22% Hispanic Americans. External validation was conducted in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study) and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study).

RESULTS

Inclusion of CAC in the MESA risk score offered significant improvements in risk prediction (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.75; p < 0.0001). External validation in both the HNR and DHS studies provided evidence of very good discrimination and calibration. Harrell's C-statistic was 0.779 in HNR and 0.816 in DHS. Additionally, the difference in estimated 10-year risk between events and nonevents was approximately 8% to 9%, indicating excellent discrimination. Mean calibration, or calibration-in-the-large, was excellent for both studies, with average predicted 10-year risk within one-half of a percent of the observed event rate.

CONCLUSIONS

An accurate estimate of 10-year CHD risk can be obtained using traditional risk factors and CAC. The MESA risk score, which is available online on the MESA web site for easy use, can be used to aid clinicians when communicating risk to patients and when determining risk-based treatment strategies.

Vascular Effects of Early versus Late Postmenopausal Treatment with Estradiol

BACKGROUND

Data suggest that estrogen-containing hormone therapy is associated with beneficial effects with regard to cardiovascular disease when the therapy is initiated temporally close to menopause but not when it is initiated later. However, the hypothesis that the cardiovascular effects of postmenopausal hormone therapy vary with the timing of therapy initiation (the hormone-timing hypothesis) has not been tested.

METHODS

A total of 643 healthy postmenopausal women were stratified according to time since menopause (<6 years [early postmenopause] or ≥10 years [late postmenopause]) and were randomly assigned to receive either oral 17β-estradiol (1 mg per day, plus progesterone [45 mg] vaginal gel administered sequentially [i.e., once daily for 10 days of each 30-day cycle] for women with a uterus) or placebo (plus sequential placebo vaginal gel for women with a uterus). The primary outcome was the rate of change in carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CIMT), which was measured every 6 months. Secondary outcomes included an assessment of coronary atherosclerosis by cardiac computed tomography (CT), which was performed when participants completed the randomly assigned regimen.

RESULTS

After a median of 5 years, the effect of estradiol, with or without progesterone, on CIMT progression differed between the early and late postmenopause strata (P=0.007 for the interaction). Among women who were less than 6 years past menopause at the time of randomization, the mean CIMT increased by 0.0078 mm per year in the placebo group versus 0.0044 mm per year in the estradiol group (P=0.008). Among women who were 10 or more years past menopause at the time of randomization, the rates of CIMT progression in the placebo and estradiol groups were similar (0.0088 and 0.0100 mm per year, respectively; P=0.29). CT measures of coronary-artery calcium, total stenosis, and plaque did not differ significantly between the placebo group and the estradiol group in either postmenopause stratum.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral estradiol therapy was associated with less progression of subclinical atherosclerosis (measured as CIMT) than was placebo when therapy was initiated within 6 years after menopause but not when it was initiated 10 or more years after menopause. Estradiol had no significant effect on cardiac CT measures of atherosclerosis in either postmenopause stratum. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; ELITE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114517.).

Calcium density of coronary artery plaque and risk of incident cardiovascular events

IMPORTANCE

Coronary artery calcium (CAC), measured by computed tomography (CT), has strong predictive value for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The standard CAC score is the Agatston, which is weighted upward for greater calcium density. However, some data suggest increased plaque calcium density may be protective for CVD.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the independent associations of CAC volume and CAC density with incident CVD events.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Multicenter, prospective observational MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), conducted at 6 US field centers of 3398 men and women from 4 race/ethnicity groups; non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese. Participants were aged 45-84 years, free of known CVD at baseline, had CAC greater than 0 on their baseline CT, and were followed up through October 2010.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and all CVD events

RESULTS

During a median of 7.6 years of follow-up, there were 175 CHD events and an additional 90 other CVD events for a total of 265 CVD events. With both lnCAC volume and CAC density scores in the same multivariable model, the lnCAC volume score showed an independent association with incident CHD, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.47-2.23) per standard deviation (SD = 1.6) increase, absolute risk increase 6.1 per 1000 person-years, and for CVD an HR of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.42-1.98) per SD increase, absolute risk increase 7.9 per 1000 person-years. Conversely, the CAC density score showed an independent inverse association, with an HR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.91) per SD (SD = 0.7) increase for CHD, absolute risk decrease 5.5 per 1000 person-years, and an HR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) per SD increase for CVD, absolute risk decrease 8.2 per 1000 person years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed significantly improved risk prediction with the addition of the density score to a model containing the volume score for both CHD and CVD. In the intermediate CVD risk group, the area under the curve for CVD increased from 0.53 (95% CI, 0.48-0.59) to 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.64), P = .02.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

CAC volume was positively and independently associated with CHD and CVD risk. At any level of CAC volume, CAC density was inversely and significantly associated with CHD and CVD risk. The role of CAC density should be considered when evaluating current CAC scoring systems.

Ten-year association of coronary artery calcium with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

Aims

While coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.

Methods and results

We utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.

Conclusions

Coronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

Association between air pollution and coronary artery calcification within six metropolitan areas in the USA (the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution): a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) and traffic-related air pollutant concentrations are associated with cardiovascular risk. The disease process underlying these associations remains uncertain. We aim to assess association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and progression of coronary artery calcium and common carotid artery intima-media thickness.

METHODS

In this prospective 10-year cohort study, we repeatedly measured coronary artery calcium by CT in 6795 participants aged 45-84 years enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) in six metropolitan areas in the USA. Repeated scans were done for nearly all participants between 2002 and 2005, for a subset of participants between 2005 and 2007, and for half of all participants between 2010 and 2012. Common carotid artery intima-media thickness was measured by ultrasound in all participants at baseline and in 2010-12 for 3459 participants. Residence-specific spatio-temporal pollution concentration models, incorporating community-specific measurements, agency monitoring data, and geographical predictors, estimated concentrations of PM2.5 and nitrogen oxides (NOX) between 1999 and 2012. The primary aim was to examine the association between both progression of coronary artery calcium and mean carotid artery intima-media thickness and long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations (PM2.5, NOX, and black carbon) between examinations and within the six metropolitan areas, adjusting for baseline age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, site, and CT scanner technology.

FINDINGS

In this population, coronary calcium increased on average by 24 Agatston units per year (SD 58), and intima-media thickness by 12 μm per year (10), before adjusting for risk factors or air pollutant exposures. Participant-specific pollutant concentrations averaged over the years 2000-10 ranged from 9.2-22.6 μg PM2.5/m(3) and 7.2-139.2 parts per billion (ppb) NOX. For each 5 μg PM2.5/m(3) increase, coronary calcium progressed by 4.1 Agatston units per year (95% CI 1.4-6.8) and for each 40 ppb NOX coronary calcium progressed by 4.8 Agatston units per year (0.9-8.7). Pollutant exposures were not associated with intima-media thickness change. The estimate for the effect of a 5 μg/m(3) higher long-term exposure to PM2.5 in intima-media thickness was -0.9 μm per year (95% CI -3.0 to 1.3). For 40 ppb higher NOX, the estimate was 0.2 μm per year (-1.9 to 2.4).

INTERPRETATION

Increased concentrations of PM2.5 and traffic-related air pollution within metropolitan areas, in ranges commonly encountered worldwide, are associated with progression in coronary calcification, consistent with acceleration of atherosclerosis. This study supports the case for global efforts of pollution reduction in prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

FUNDING

US Environmental Protection Agency and US National Institutes of Health.

From vulnerable plaque to vulnerable patient--Part III: Executive summary of the Screening for Heart Attack Prevention and Education (SHAPE) Task Force report

Screening for early-stage asymptomatic cancers (eg, cancers of breast and colon) to prevent late-stage malignancies has been widely accepted. However, although atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (eg, heart attack and stroke) accounts for more death and disability than all cancers combined, there are no national screening guidelines for asymptomatic (subclinical) atherosclerosis, and there is no government- or healthcare-sponsored reimbursement for atherosclerosis screening. Part I and Part II of this consensus statement elaborated on new discoveries in the field of atherosclerosis that led to the concept of the "vulnerable patient." These landmark discoveries, along with new diagnostic and therapeutic options, have set the stage for the next step: translation of this knowledge into a new practice of preventive cardiology. The identification and treatment of the vulnerable patient are the focuses of this consensus statement. In this report, the Screening for Heart Attack Prevention and Education (SHAPE) Task Force presents a new practice guideline for cardiovascular screening in the asymptomatic at-risk population. In summary, the SHAPE Guideline calls for noninvasive screening of all asymptomatic men 45-75 years of age and asymptomatic women 55-75 years of age (except those defined as very low risk) to detect and treat those with subclinical atherosclerosis. A variety of screening tests are available, and the cost-effectiveness of their use in a comprehensive strategy must be validated. Some of these screening tests, such as measurement of coronary artery calcification by computed tomography scanning and carotid artery intima-media thickness and plaque by ultrasonography, have been available longer than others and are capable of providing direct evidence for the presence and extent of atherosclerosis. Both of these imaging methods provide prognostic information of proven value regarding the future risk of heart attack and stroke. Careful and responsible implementation of these tests as part of a comprehensive risk assessment and reduction approach is warranted and outlined by this report. Other tests for the detection of atherosclerosis and abnormal arterial structure and function, such as magnetic resonance imaging of the great arteries, studies of small and large artery stiffness, and assessment of systemic endothelial dysfunction, are emerging and must be further validated. The screening results (severity of subclinical arterial disease) combined with risk factor assessment are used for risk stratification to identify the vulnerable patient and initiate appropriate therapy. The higher the risk, the more vulnerable an individual is to a near-term adverse event. Because <10% of the population who test positive for atherosclerosis will experience a near-term event, additional risk stratification based on reliable markers of disease activity is needed and is expected to further focus the search for the vulnerable patient in the future. All individuals with asymptomatic atherosclerosis should be counseled and treated to prevent progression to overt clinical disease. The aggressiveness of the treatment should be proportional to the level of risk. Individuals with no evidence of subclinical disease may be reassured of the low risk of a future near-term event, yet encouraged to adhere to a healthy lifestyle and maintain appropriate risk factor levels. Early heart attack care education is urged for all individuals with a positive test for atherosclerosis. The SHAPE Task Force reinforces existing guidelines for the screening and treatment of risk factors in younger populations. Cardiovascular healthcare professionals and policymakers are urged to adopt the SHAPE proposal and its attendant cost-effectiveness as a new strategy to contain the epidemic of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and the rising cost of therapies associated with this epidemic.

An analysis of calibration and discrimination among multiple cardiovascular risk scores in a modern multiethnic cohort

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is essential to effectively balance the risks and benefits of therapy for primary prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the calibration and discrimination of the new American Heart Association (AHA) and American College of Cardiology (ACC) ASCVD risk score with alternative risk scores and to explore preventive therapy as a cause of the reported risk overestimation using the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.

DESIGN

Prospective epidemiologic study of ASCVD.

SETTING

MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based, sex-balanced, multiethnic cohort.

PATIENTS

4227 MESA participants aged 50 to 74 years and without diabetes at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Observed and expected events for the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score were compared with 4 commonly used risk scores-and their respective end points-in MESA after a 10.2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

The new AHA-ACC-ASCVD and 3 older Framingham-based risk scores overestimated cardiovascular events by 37% to 154% in men and 8% to 67% in women. Overestimation was noted throughout the continuum of risk. In contrast, the Reynolds Risk Score overestimated risk by 9% in men but underestimated risk by 21% in women. Aspirin, lipid-lowering or antihypertensive therapy, and interim revascularization did not explain the overestimation.

LIMITATION

Comparability of MESA with target populations for primary prevention and possibility of missed events in MESA.

CONCLUSION

Of the 5 risk scores, 4, including the new AHA-ACC-ASCVD score, showed overestimation of risk (25% to 115%) in a modern, multiethnic cohort without baseline clinical ASCVD. If validated, overestimation of ASCVD risk may have substantial implications for individual patients and the health care system.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Implications of Coronary Artery Calcium Testing Among Statin Candidates According to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cholesterol Management Guidelines: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

BACKGROUND

The American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) cholesterol management guidelines have significantly broadened the scope of candidates eligible for statin therapy.

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the implications of the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in reclassifying patients from a risk stratum in which statins are recommended to one in which they are not.

METHODS

MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a longitudinal study of 6,814 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk at enrollment. We excluded 1,100 participants (16%) on lipid-lowering medication, 87 (1.3%) without low-density lipoprotein levels, 26 (0.4%) with missing risk factors for calculation of 10-year risk of ASCVD, 633 (9%) >75 years of age, and 209 (3%) with low-density lipoprotein <70 mg/dl from the analysis.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 4,758 participants (age 59 ± 9 years; 47% males). A total of 247 (5.2%) ASCVD and 155 (3.3%) hard coronary heart disease events occurred over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.3 (9.7 to 10.8) years. The new ACC/AHA guidelines recommended 2,377 (50%) MESA participants for moderate- to high-intensity statins; the majority (77%) was eligible because of a 10-year estimated ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. Of those recommended statins, 41% had CAC = 0 and had 5.2 ASCVD events/1,000 person-years. Among 589 participants (12%) considered for moderate-intensity statin, 338 (57%) had a CAC = 0, with an ASCVD event rate of 1.5 per 1,000 person-years. Of participants eligible (recommended or considered) for statins, 44% (1,316 of 2,966) had CAC = 0 at baseline and an observed 10-year ASCVD event rate of 4.2 per 1,000 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant ASCVD risk heterogeneity exists among those eligible for statins according to the new guidelines. The absence of CAC reclassifies approximately one-half of candidates as not eligible for statin therapy.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cardiovascular disease: a resolute belief or an elusive link?

The role of inflammation in the propagation of atherosclerosis and susceptibility to cardiovascular (CV) events is well established. Of the wide array of inflammatory biomarkers that have been studied, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) has received the most attention for its use in screening and risk reclassification and as a predictor of clinical response to statin therapy. Although CRP is involved in the immunologic process that triggers vascular remodeling and plaque deposition and is associated with increased CV disease (CVD) risk, definitive randomized evidence for its role as a causative factor in atherothrombosis is lacking. Whether measurement of hsCRP levels provides consistent, clinically meaningful incremental predictive value in risk prediction and reclassification beyond conventional factors remains debated. Despite publication of guidelines on the use of hsCRP in CVD risk prediction by several leading professional organizations, there is a lack of clear consensus regarding the optimal clinical use of hsCRP. This article reviews 4 distinct points from the literature to better understand the current state and application of hsCRP in clinical practice: 1) the biology of hsCRP and its role in atherosclerosis; 2) the epidemiological association of hsCRP with CVD; 3) the quality of hsCRP as a biomarker of risk; and 4) the use of hsCRP as a tool to initiate or tailor statin therapy. Furthermore, we highlight recommendations from societies and important considerations when using hsCRP to guide treatment decisions in the primary prevention setting.

Coronary Atherosclerotic Precursors of Acute Coronary Syndromes

BACKGROUND

The association of atherosclerotic features with first acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has not accounted for plaque burden.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to identify atherosclerotic features associated with precursors of ACS.

METHODS

We performed a nested case-control study within a cohort of 25,251 patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) with follow-up over 3.4 ± 2.1 years. Patients with ACS and nonevent patients with no prior coronary artery disease (CAD) were propensity matched 1:1 for risk factors and coronary CTA-evaluated obstructive (≥50%) CAD. Separate core laboratories performed blinded adjudication of ACS and culprit lesions and quantification of baseline coronary CTA for percent diameter stenosis (%DS), percent cross-sectional plaque burden (PB), plaque volumes (PVs) by composition (calcified, fibrous, fibrofatty, and necrotic core), and presence of high-risk plaques (HRPs).

RESULTS

We identified 234 ACS and control pairs (age 62 years, 63% male). More than 65% of patients with ACS had nonobstructive CAD at baseline, and 52% had HRP. The %DS, cross-sectional PB, fibrofatty and necrotic core volume, and HRP increased the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of ACS (1.010 per %DS, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005 to 1.015; 1.008 per percent cross-sectional PB, 95% CI: 1.003 to 1.013; 1.002 per mm3 fibrofatty plaque, 95% CI: 1.000 to 1.003; 1.593 per mm3 necrotic core, 95% CI: 1.219 to 2.082; all p < 0.05). Of the 129 culprit lesion precursors identified by coronary CTA, three-fourths exhibited <50% stenosis and 31.0% exhibited HRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ACS increases with %DS, most precursors of ACS cases and culprit lesions are nonobstructive. Plaque evaluation, including HRP, PB, and plaque composition, identifies high-risk patients above and beyond stenosis severity and aggregate plaque burden.