Denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. Denosumab has been shown in a large randomised trial to reduce the frequency of osteoporotic fractures when given subcutaneously at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with placebo, the relative risks of clinical vertebral and hip fractures were 0.32 and 0.60, respectively. Clinical vertebral fractures occurred in 0.8% of women taking denosumab and 2.6% of control subjects. Hip fractures occurred in 1.2% of women on placebo and 0.7% on denosumab. The expected use is in women who cannot tolerate oral bisphosphonates. Other options in that situation include strontium ranelate and zoledronate, which, compared with placebo, also reduced the risk of clinical vertebral fractures [relative risk (RR) 0.65 and 0.23, respectively]. Zoledronate also significantly reduced the risk of hip fractures (RR 0.59). The ERG concluded that zoledronate was the main comparator. The relative cost-effectiveness of denosumab and zoledronate depends mainly on assumptions about costs of administration.

Denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in post-menopausal women: a NICE single technology appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of denosumab (Amgen Inc., UK) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of denosumab for the prevention of fragility fractures in post-menopausal women, as part of the Institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process. The University of Aberdeen Health Technology Assessment Group were commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG); the role of the ERG being to appraise the manufacturer's submission and to produce an independent report. This article provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and NICE's subsequent decisions. The manufacturer considered that denosumab would be appropriate for patients unable to take, comply with or tolerate oral bisphosphonates. Comparator treatments selected for the submission were, therefore, 'no treatment', raloxifene, strontium ranelate, intravenous zoledronic acid, intravenous ibandronate and teriparatide. The main effectiveness evidence for denosumab was derived from a large randomized controlled trial comparing denosumab with placebo. Given by subcutaneous injection at 6-monthly intervals for 3 years, denosumab reduced the incidence of hip fracture by 40%, and reduced the incidence of clinical vertebral fracture by 69%. An indirect treatment comparison was used to derive adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates for different types of fracture for each comparator versus placebo. The RRs (95% CI) applied for denosumab were 0.316 (0.208, 0.478) for clinical vertebral fracture, 0.605 (0.373, 0.983) for hip fracture and 0.842 (0.638, 1.110) for wrist fracture. Despite a number of concerns surrounding the methodology of the indirect comparison, the ERG was satisfied with the robustness of the effect estimates. The RR estimates were applied in a good-quality Markov model that took account of drug costs, administration and monitoring costs, costs associated with fractures, and long-term nursing home costs. Utility weights were used to adjust time spent in fracture states, allowing QALYs to be estimated. The base-case analysis was conducted for women aged 70 years with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fracture, and women aged 70 years with a T-score of -2.5 or less with a prior fragility fracture. Subgroup analyses based on T-score and independent clinical risk factors were also undertaken. Applying a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £30 000 per QALY, the manufacturer's results suggested that denosumab would offer a cost-effective alternative to all treatment comparators for the primary and secondary prevention of fractures. The ERG was concerned about an assumption that denosumab would be administered in general practice at the average cost of two standard GP visits a year. As a result, the ERG requested some further sensitivity analysis and undertook some further modelling, applying an assumption that denosumab would be provided primarily in secondary care. This modification altered the cost effectiveness of denosumab versus 'no treatment' (in women with no prior fragility fracture) and zoledronic acid. The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that, as a treatment option for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures, denosumab should be recommended only in post-menopausal women at increased risk of fracture who cannot comply with the special instructions for administering oral bisphosphonates, or have an intolerance of, or contraindication to, those treatments. For primary prevention, the Appraisal Committee also stipulated specific levels of fracture risk at which denosumab is recommended.

Insulin sensitisers in the treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is closely linked with obesity and the prevalence of NAFLD is about 17% to 33% in the Western world. There is a strong association of NAFLD with insulin resistance and, hence, insulin sensitisers have been tried. This systematic review examined the clinical effectiveness of insulin sensitisers in patients with NAFLD, to help decide whether or not a trial or trials of the insulin sensitisers was necessary and also to explore whether or not non-invasive alternatives to liver biopsy were available that could be used in a large trial of the insulin sensitisers.

OBJECTIVE

To review the use of insulin sensitisers in the treatment of NAFLD.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of metformin, rosiglitazone and pioglitazone was carried out, including reviews and randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Databases searched were MEDLINE, 1950 to June 2010; EMBASE, 1980 to June 2010; Science Citation Index Expanded, June 2010; Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science June 2010; The Cochrane Library 2005-10. Abstracts were screened independently by two researchers. A narrative review of diagnostic methods was conducted.

RESULTS

Clinical effectiveness. We identified 15 RCTs (one available as abstract). Four papers explored efficacy of pioglitazone, one rosiglitazone, eight metformin; two compared metformin and rosiglitazone, although one used both metformin and rosiglitazone. The duration of most trials was between 6 and 12 months. Many trials had a small number of participants and the quality of the studies was mixed. Pioglitazone improved all parameters of liver histology. Metformin showed mixed results, with ultrasound changes in two studies showing some improvement in steatosis, whereas there were no changes in the other two. Metformin, however, showed no improvement in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) stages. Metformin showed greater reduction in glycosylated haemoglobin (-0.23% to -1.2% vs -0.2% to -0.7%) and fasting plasma glucose (+0.05 to -3.19 mmol/l vs -0.17 to -1.11 mmol/l) compared with pioglitazone. Metformin led to weight reduction (-4.3 to -6.7 kg), whereas participants on pioglitazone gained weight (+2.5 to +4.7 kg). Alanine aminotransferase levels were reduced with both metformin and pioglitazone; however, the reduction in levels with pioglitazone was not different to that caused by vitamin E. Most studies suggested that metformin led to a significant reduction in insulin resistance. Diagnosis. Non-invasive methods of diagnosing NAFLD without liver biopsy, using combinations of clinical history, laboratory tests and ultrasound, have been explored, but so far liver biopsy is the only proven method of distinguishing simple steatosis from NASH. Transient elastography appears useful, but less so in obese individuals. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy shows promise, but is expensive and not readily available.

LIMITATIONS

Mixed quality of trials, with lack of detail as to how some trials were conducted. Many trials had small numbers of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The main need for drug trials is at the NASH stage. However, at present, any trial in the more advanced forms of NAFLD would have to use liver biopsy. The highest priority for research may, therefore, be in the diagnosis of NAFLD, and the differentiation between steatosis and NASH. The newer agents, the glucagon-like peptide-1 analogues such as liraglutide, may be more worthy of a trial.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Indication of electron neutrino appearance from an accelerator-produced off-axis muon neutrino beam

The T2K experiment observes indications of ν(μ) → ν(e) appearance in data accumulated with 1.43×10(20) protons on target. Six events pass all selection criteria at the far detector. In a three-flavor neutrino oscillation scenario with |Δm(23)(2)| = 2.4×10(-3)  eV(2), sin(2)2θ(23) = 1 and sin(2)2θ(13) = 0, the expected number of such events is 1.5±0.3(syst). Under this hypothesis, the probability to observe six or more candidate events is 7×10(-3), equivalent to 2.5σ significance. At 90% C.L., the data are consistent with 0.03(0.04) < sin(2)2θ(13) < 0.28(0.34) for δ(CP) = 0 and a normal (inverted) hierarchy.

Denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. Denosumab has been shown in a large randomised trial to reduce the frequency of osteoporotic fractures when given subcutaneously at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with placebo, the relative risks of clinical vertebral and hip fractures were 0.32 and 0.60, respectively. Clinical vertebral fractures occurred in 0.8% of women taking denosumab and 2.6% of control subjects. Hip fractures occurred in 1.2% of women on placebo and 0.7% on denosumab. The expected use is in women who cannot tolerate oral bisphosphonates. Other options in that situation include strontium ranelate and zoledronate, which, compared with placebo, also reduced the risk of clinical vertebral fractures [relative risk (RR) 0.65 and 0.23, respectively]. Zoledronate also significantly reduced the risk of hip fractures (RR 0.59). The ERG concluded that zoledronate was the main comparator. The relative cost-effectiveness of denosumab and zoledronate depends mainly on assumptions about costs of administration.

Screening for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy: a rapid update for the National Screening Committee

BACKGROUND

Screening for gestational diabetes has long been a controversial topic. A previous Health Technology Assessment (HTA) report reviewed literature on screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and assessed the case for screening against the criteria set by the National Screening Committee.

OBJECTIVE

To update a previous HTA report which reviewed the literature on screening for GDM by examining evidence that has emerged since that last report, including the Australian Carbohydrate Intolerance Study in Pregnant Women (ACHOIS), the Maternal and Fetal Medicine Units Network (MFMUN) trial and the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO) study. To review data on recent trends in maternal age at birth and on the prevalence of overweight and obesity and the effect on prevalence of GDM.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature was carried out. The bibliographic databases used were MEDLINE (1996 to January 2009), EMBASE (1996 to December 2009), the Cochrane Library 2008 issue 4, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination database and the Web of Science.

REVIEW METHODS

For the review of treatment with oral drugs versus insulin, a full systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out. The results of the ACHOIS, MFMUN and HAPO studies were summarised and their implications discussed. Findings of a selection of other recent studies, relevant to the continuum issue, were summarised. Some recent screening studies were reviewed, including a particular focus on studies of screening earlier in pregnancy.

RESULTS

The HAPO results showed a linear relationship between plasma glucose and adverse outcomes - there is a continuum of risk with no clear threshold which could divide women into those with gestational diabetes and those without. There was good evidence from trials and the meta-analysis that women who fail to control hyperglycaemic in pregnancy on lifestyle measures alone can be safely and effectively be treated with oral agents, metformin or glibenclamide, rather than going directly to insulin. Evidence showed few differences in results between glibenclamide and insulin and metformin and insulin. The exceptions were that there was less maternal hypoglycaemia with glibenclamide, but less neonatal hypoglycaemia and lower birthweight with insulin, and there was less maternal weight gain with metformin. The ACHOIS and MFMUN trials showed reductions in perinatal complications among infants born to mothers who were provided with more intensive dietary advice, blood glucose monitoring and insulin when required. The HAPO study demonstrated adverse outcomes over a much wider range of blood glucose (BG) than the traditional definition of GDM. In the HAPO study, no one measure of BG came out as being clearly the best, although fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was as good as any, and had advantages of being more convenient than an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), but correlations between fasting and post-load levels were quite poor. Two screening strategies dominated; (1) selection by the American Diabetes Association criteria followed by the 75-g OGTT [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) 3678 pounds], and (2) selection by high-risk ethnicity followed by the 75-g OGTT (ICER 21,739 pounds). Studies indicated that costs are about 1833 pounds higher for pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes, suggesting that prevention would be worthwhile.

LIMITATIONS

Not all of the HAPO results have been published, and none of the reviewed economic studies resolved the most difficult issue - at what level of BG does intervention become cost-effective?

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence base has improved since the last HTA review in 2002. There is now good evidence for treatment of oral drugs instead of insulin and it looks increasingly as if FPG could be the test of choice. However some key uncertainties remain to be resolved, which can be done by further analysis of the already collected HAPO data and by using the UK model used in developing the NICE guidelines to assess the cost-effectiveness of intervention in each of the seven HAPO categories.

Images of paraffin monolayer crystals with perfect contrast: minimization of beam-induced specimen motion

Quantitative analysis of electron microscope images of organic and biological two-dimensional crystals has previously shown that the absolute contrast reached only a fraction of that expected theoretically from the electron diffraction amplitudes. The accepted explanation for this is that irradiation of the specimen causes beam-induced charging or movement, which in turn causes blurring of the image due to image or specimen movement. In this paper, we used three different approaches to try to overcome this image-blurring problem in monolayer crystals of paraffin. Our first approach was to use an extreme form of spotscan imaging, in which a single image was assembled on film by the successive illumination of up to 50,000 spots, each of a diameter of around 7 nm. The second approach was to use the Medipix II detector with its zero-noise readout to assemble a time-sliced series of images of the same area in which each frame from a movie with up to 400 frames had an exposure of only 500 electrons. In the third approach, we simply used a much thicker carbon support film to increase the physical strength and conductivity of the support. Surprisingly, the first two methods involving dose fractionation in space or time produced only partial improvements in contrast whereas the third approach produced many virtually perfect images, where the absolute contrast predicted from the electron diffraction amplitudes was observed in the images. We conclude that it is possible to obtain consistently almost perfect images of beam-sensitive specimens if they are attached to an appropriately strong and conductive support; however great care is needed in practice and the problem remains of how to best image ice-embedded biological structures in the absence of a strong, conductive support film.

Phase accuracy in high-resolution electron microscopy of trigonal and orthorhombic purple membrane

High-resolution images of orthorhombic purple membrane have been obtained by electron cryomicroscopy with spot-scan illumination, and the projection structure at 3.9 A resolution calculated after image processing and averaging of the data. Since the phases of the structure factors in the projection down the orthorhombic twofold axis should be either 0 or 180 degrees , this offers the first opportunity to make an independent test of the estimated accuracy of high-resolution phases obtained by electron microscopy. The results show the final phases are less accurate than previously estimated by a small factor (1.3). Careful comparison of the new orthorhombic structure to the known trigonal structure shows only small differences after account is taken of a slight difference in the tilt angle of the molecules in the two crystals. This is consistent with the available kinetic and spectroscopic data which show very small differences in behavior.

The clinical effectiveness of glucosamine and chondroitin supplements in slowing or arresting progression of osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of glucosamine sulphate/hydrochloride and chondroitin sulphate in modifying the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched from 1950 to 2008 and included: MEDLINE and PubMed; EMBASE; Cochrane Library (including Cochrane Systematic Reviews Database, CENTRAL, DARE, NHS EED and HTA databases); Allied and Complementary Medicine (AMED); National Research Register (NRR); Web of Science Proceedings; Current Controlled Trials; and Clinical Trials.gov. Other sources included bibliographies of retrieved papers, registered but unpublished trials, internet searches and the Food Standards Agency website.

REVIEW METHODS

A search was conducted for systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which were used to identify RCTs of at least 12 months' duration and updated with searches for primary studies. A cost-effectiveness model was constructed using cohort simulation and drawing on available evidence. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken and value of information analysis conducted. A review of studies of mechanism of action was carried out to explore the biological plausibility of the preparations.

RESULTS

Five systematic reviews and one clinical guideline met the inclusion criteria. They reported inconsistent conclusions with only modest effects on reported pain and function. A reduction in joint space narrowing was more consistently observed, but the effect size was small and the clinical significance uncertain. A separate review of eight primary trials of > 12 months' duration showed evidence of statistically significant improvements in joint space loss, pain and function for glucosamine sulphate, but the clinical importance of these differences was not clear. In two studies of glucosamine sulphate, the need for knee arthroplasty was reduced from 14.5% to 6.3% at 8 years' follow-up. For other preparations of glucosamine, chondroitin and combination therapy, there was less evidence to support a clinical effect. Cost-effectiveness modelling was restricted to glucosamine sulphate. Over a lifetime horizon the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain for adding glucosamine sulphate to current care was estimated to be 21,335 pounds. Deterministic sensitivity analysis suggested that the cost-effectiveness of glucosamine sulphate therapy was particularly dependent on the magnitude of the quality of life (QoL) gain, the change in knee arthroplasty probability with therapy and the discount rate. At a cost per QALY gained threshold of 20,000 pounds, the likelihood that glucosamine sulphate is more cost-effective than current care is 0.43, while at a threshold of 30,000 pounds, the probability rises to 0.73. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were imprecise and subject to a degree of decision uncertainty. Value of information analysis demonstrated the need for further research. Several biologically plausible mechanisms of action for glucosamine sulphate and chondroitin were proposed.

CONCLUSIONS

There was evidence that glucosamine sulphate shows some clinical effectiveness in the treatment of OA of the knee. No trial data came from the UK and caution should be exercised in generalising the findings to the UK health-care setting. Cost-effectiveness was not conclusively demonstrated. There was evidence to support the potential clinical impact of glucosamine sulphate. The value of information analysis identified three research priorities: QoL, structural outcomes and knee arthroplasty. The biological mechanism of glucosamine sulphate and chondroitin remains uncertain and, in particular, the proposal that the active substance may be sulphate should be explored further.