Alternatives to randomisation in the evaluation of public health interventions: design challenges and solutions

BACKGROUND

There has been a recent increase in interest in alternatives to randomisation in the evaluation of public health interventions. We aim to describe specific scenarios in which randomised trials may not be possible and describe, exemplify and assess alternative strategies.

METHODS

Non-systematic exploratory review.

RESULTS

In many scenarios barriers are surmountable so that randomised trials (including stepped-wedge and crossover trials) are possible. It is possible to rank alternative designs but context will also determine which choices are preferable. Evidence from non-randomised designs is more convincing when confounders are well-understood, measured and controlled; there is evidence for causal pathways linking intervention and outcomes and/or against other pathways explaining outcomes; and effect sizes are large.

CONCLUSION

Non-randomised trials might provide adequate evidence to inform decisions when interventions are demonstrably feasible and acceptable, and where evidence suggests there is little potential for harm, but caution that such designs may not provide adequate evidence when intervention feasibility or acceptability is doubtful, and where existing evidence suggests benefits may be marginal and/or harms possible.

Sexual behaviour and HIV/sexually transmitted infection risk behaviours in the general population of Slovenia, a low HIV prevalence country in central Europe

Objectives:

To describe sexual and HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk behaviours in Slovenia.

Methods:

A nationally representative cross-sectional survey of the general population aged 18–49 years in 1999–2001 was conducted. The data were collected by face-to-face interviews and anonymous self-administered questionnaires. Statistical methods for complex survey data were used.

Results:

849 men and 903 women were interviewed. In the past 5 years, both men and women reported a median of one heterosexual partner (means 3.2, 1.5, respectively), concurrent heterosexual partnerships were reported by 24.4% of men and 8.2% of women, heterosexual sex with non-Slovenian partners by 12.6% of men and 12.2% of women, forced sex by 4.8% of women, paid heterosexual sex by 2.6% of men, sex with another man by 0.6% of men and heterosexual sex with an injecting drug user by 1.2% of men and 1.3% of women. In the past year, 22.7% of men and 9.5% of women reported forming at least one new heterosexual partnership. The mean numbers of episodes of heterosexual sex in the previous 4 weeks were 6.1 for men and 6.0 for women. Consistent and inconsistent condom use was reported more frequently among men reporting multiple female partners and those not married or cohabiting.

Conclusions:

Recent patterns of reported sexual behaviour are consistent with a low risk of HIV and STI transmission in Slovenia. The results will inform Slovenian sexual health policies including HIV/STI prevention, and are particularly valuable because population-based data on HIV/STI risk behaviour have not previously been available in low HIV prevalence countries of central Europe.

Complex physiological traits as biomarkers of the sub-lethal toxicological effects of pollutant exposure in fishes

Complex physiological traits, such as routine aerobic metabolic rate or exercise performance, are indicators of the functional integrity of fish that can reveal sub-lethal toxicological effects of aquatic pollutants. These traits have proved valuable in laboratory investigations of the sub-lethal effects of heavy metals, ammonia and various xenobiotics. It is not known, however, whether they can also function as biomarkers of the complex potential range of effects upon overall functional integrity caused by exposure to mixtures of chemicals in polluted natural environments. The current study used portable swimming respirometers to compare exercise performance and respiratory metabolism of fish exposed in cages for three weeks to either clean or polluted sites on three urban European river systems: the river Lambro, Milan, Italy; the rivers Blythe, Cole and Tame, Birmingham, UK; and the river Amstel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The UK and Italian rivers were variously polluted with high levels of both bioavailable heavy metals and organics, and the Amstel by mixtures of bioavailable organics at high concentrations. In both the UK and Italy, indigenous chub (Leuciscus cephalus) exposed to clean or polluted sites swam equally well in an initial performance test, but the chub from polluted sites could not repeat this performance after a brief recovery interval. These animals were unable to raise the metabolic rate and allocate oxygen towards exercise in the second trial, an effect confirmed in successive campaigns in Italy. Swimming performance was therefore a biomarker indicator of pollutant exposure in chub exposed at these sites. Exposure to polluted sites on the river Amstel did not affect the repeat swimming performance of cultured cloned carp (Cyprinus carpio), indicating either a species-specific tolerance or relative absence of heavy metals. However, measurements of oxygen uptake during swimming revealed increased rates of routine aerobic metabolism in both chub and carp at polluted sites in all of the rivers studied, indicating a sub-lethal metabolic loading effect. Therefore, the physiological traits of exercise performance and metabolic rate have potential as biomarkers of the overall sub-lethal toxic effects of exposure to complex mixtures of pollutants in rivers, and may also provide insight into why fish do not colonize some polluted environments.

The cardiovascular and pharmacokinetic profile of dofetilide in conscious telemetered beagle dogs and cynomolgus monkeys

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The effects of dofetilide were studied in monkeys and dogs. Pharmacokinetic data were generated together with the monitoring of cardiovascular changes in order to compare effects relative to human exposure.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

Beagle dogs and cynomolgus monkeys were telemetered to collect arterial blood pressure, heart rate and ECG for 6 h after selected oral doses of dofetilide. Pharmacokinetic parameters were determined for each dose.

KEY RESULTS

Dogs: increases in the QT(c) interval reached 56 ms in dogs dosed with 0.3 mg kg(-1) of dofetilide. Premature ventricular contractions and right bundle branch block were evident at this dose, without changes in cardiovascular parameters. The mean C(max) values were 3.35 and 60.15 ng mL(-1) at doses of 0.03 and 0.3 mg kg(-1), respectively. Monkeys: increases in QT(c) intervals reached 40-50 ms after 0.03 mg kg(-1). T-wave changes were observed after 0.03 mg kg(-1) without changes in cardiovascular parameters. The mean C(max) values following oral doses of 0.01 and 0.03 mg kg(-1) were 0.919 ng mL(-1) and 1.85 ng mL(-1), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Despite dofetilide exposure comparable to that in humans, QT(c) responses in dogs were greater than those reported in humans. A comparable human dose used in the monkey achieved only half of the exposure but was associated with twofold greater increases in QT(c). Our data support the view that safety risk assessments of new drugs in animal models should ensure that the clinical therapeutic range of exposure is achieved and any untoward effects interpreted accordingly.

Comparison of multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis in a setting of polyclonal endemicity of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium

In order to assess whether multiple-locus-variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) could replace pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) for genotyping vancomycin-resistant isolates of Enterococcus faecium (VREF), this study compared the typeability, discriminatory power, concordance and costs of these methods for VREF isolates obtained from patients, environmental samples and the hands of healthcare workers (HCWs) in a medical intensive care unit (ICU) where VREF was endemic. Over a 58-day period, 393 VREF isolates (373 vanA, one vanA/B, 19 vanB) were cultured from patient rectal swabs (n = 76), the environment (n = 270) and the hands of HCWs (n = 47). PFGE was able to divide 358 (91.1%) isolates into 19 PFGE types (>six bands different) and 24 subtypes (one to three bands different). MLVA was able to type 391 (99.5%) isolates into 11 genotypes. The discriminatory power of PFGE subtypes was 83%, as compared to 68% for MLVA. Concordance between the two methods, based on matched or mismatched MLVA types and PFGE types or subtypes, was 67.5% and 82.8%, respectively. Using PFGE, 13 isolates could be genotyped in 3 days; MLVA genotyped 94 isolates in 2 days. For both methods, the estimated costs were Euro 7 ($10)/isolate. PFGE and MLVA produced highly concordant results when assigning genotypes to nosocomial VREF isolates. MLVA was faster, but PFGE subtyping was more discriminatory.

Factors associated with early sexual debut in Slovenia: results of a general population survey

OBJECTIVES

To investigate time trends in age at first heterosexual intercourse (FHI) and associated factors.

METHODS

Data were collected from a national probability sample of the general population aged 18-49 years.

RESULTS

Median age at FHI was 17 years for men and 18 years for women, but declined from 18 years to 17 years in men born after the early 1960s and in women born after the early 1970s. Early FHI (before age 16) was reported by 15.2% of men and 7.4% of women, but in recent cohorts (born 1975-82), proportions were similar in both sexes (16.9% and 14.4%, respectively). In women, higher educational level and acquiring most knowledge about sex from parents or in school were associated with later age at FHI. Half the women with early FHI judged the event to have occurred too soon. 4.2% of women with early FHI reported coercion at FHI, compared to 0.9% overall. The main factor associated with early FHI in men was not living with both parents up to the age of 15. Individuals with early FHI were more likely to report higher risk sexual behaviour as well as teenage motherhood and, for men, not having used a condom at FHI and bacterial sexually transmitted infections. Three in four individuals with early FHI thought they had inadequate sexual knowledge at FHI. Many would have liked to have learned more from parents and in school.

CONCLUSIONS

Improved sexual education among young Slovenians should aim to delay FHI until a more mature age and to be better prepared for safer sex.

Alpha-II-spectrin after controlled cortical impact in the immature rat brain

Proteolytic processing plays an important role in regulating a wide range of important cellular functions, including processing of cytoskeletal proteins. Loss of cytoskeletal proteins such as spectrin is an important characteristic in a variety of acute central nervous system injuries including ischemia, spinal cord injury and traumatic brain injury (TBI). The literature contains extensive information on the proteolytic degradation of alpha-II-spectrin after TBI in the adult brain. By contrast, there is limited knowledge on the characteristics and relevance of these important processes in the immature brain. The present experiments examine TBI-induced proteolytic processing of alpha-II-spectrin after TBI in the immature rat brain. Distinct proteolytic products resulting from the degradation of the cytoskeletal protein alpha-II-spectrin by calpain and caspase 3 were readily detectable in cortical brain parenchyma and cerebrospinal fluid after TBI in immature rats.

Abdominal pain: general imaging strategies

Acute abdominal pain is the most common condition necessitating surgical admission to a paediatric hospital. The vast majority of cases are due to either appendicitis or acute non-specific abdominal pain; however, there are many other conditions presenting with acute abdominal pain in childhood which can mimic appendicitis. Some of these conditions are rarely encountered in adult practice. Plain abdominal radiographs are still obtained initially on many children presenting with abdominal pain. In the absence of associated symptoms such as vomiting however, ultrasonography (US) is more likely to elucidate the underlying cause of pain than plain-film radiography. While computed tomography (CT) is being used extensively in investigating adults with abdominal pain, its widespread use in children is to be avoided in the interest of radiation protection.

Primary desmoplastic small round cell tumor of bone: report of a case with cytogenetic confirmation

We report a case of desmoplastic small round cell tumor occurring in the right ilium of a 13-year-old boy. Morphologically, the neoplasm consisted of small round cells of primitive appearance with a diffuse growth pattern replacing marrow space and eroding bone. Immunohistochemical staining was positive for vimentin, synapsin, CD99 (MIC2 protein), and FLI-1, prompting an initial diagnosis of Ewing sarcoma/primitive neuroectodermal tumor. However, a diagnosis of desmoplastic small round cell tumor was rendered after the detection by cytogenetic analysis of the reciprocal chromosomal translocation, t(11;22)(p13;q12), which is uniquely associated with this tumor. This is the first documented instance of desmoplastic small round cell tumor arising in bone.

Cystic fibrosis-associated liver disease: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to explore the clinical factors associated with the development of cystic fibrosis-associated liver disease (CFALD).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a case-control study of all children (age 5-18 years) with established CFALD in the Republic of Ireland between January 1999 and June 2000. Each child was pair matched for age and sex with a patient with cystic fibrosis (CF) without evidence of liver disease. Only children with clinically overt liver disease were enrolled in the disease group.

RESULTS

Patients with established CFALD (n = 42; 26 boys) were enrolled. Children with CFALD had worse forced expiratory volume in 1 second values than those without CFALD. However, chest radiography and clinical scores did not differ between groups. Height (mean difference, -4.2 cm [95% confidence interval [CI], -7.41 to -0.90], P =.014), weight (mean difference, -3.21 kg [95% CI, -6.03 to -0.40], P =.026), and mid-upper arm circumference (mean difference, -1.23 cm [95% CI, -2.35 to -0.12], P =.031) were significantly lower among children with CFALD. Children with CFALD were given diagnoses of CF later than children without liver disease. There were more children with meconium ileus in the control group (14 vs 4) than among those with CFALD.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with established CFALD have impaired growth and nutrition, altered body composition, and worse forced expiratory volume in 1 second values. CFALD is associated with later age of diagnosis of CF.

Multifocal infantile myofibromatosis and generalized fibromuscular dysplasia in a child: evidence for a common pathologic process?

Infantile myofibromatosis (IM) is a condition characterized by the formation of spindle cell tumors of skin, soft tissue, and viscera. Although small vessel involvement by the process is a frequently identified and indeed diagnostically useful histological finding, involvement of large vessels is not widely reported. Fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) is a noninflammatory arteriopathy characterized by intimal, medial, and/or adventitial fibroplasias leading to luminal compromise and aneurysm formation. Although venous disease has been reported, involvement of arterioles and viscera has not been identified. We report a patient in whom IM was diagnosed, on the basis of multiple soft tissue tumors present from birth, who subsequently developed generalized and ultimately fatal FMD. These two conditions exhibit overlapping pathologic features, including pronounced intimal fibroplasia. Their occurrence in a single individual may provide insights into the pathogenesis of both conditions, suggesting that they represent part of the same spectrum of vascular myofibroblastic proliferations.

Prevalence of genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection in the general population of Slovenia: serious gaps in control

OBJECTIVES

One of the objectives of the first national survey of sexual lifestyles, attitudes, and health in Slovenia was to estimate the prevalence of and risk factors for genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection in Slovenian adults aged 18-49 years.

METHODS

Data were collected over 1999-2001 from a probability sample of the general population by face to face interviews and anonymous self administered questionnaires. Respondents were invited to provide a first void urine (FVU) specimen for polymerase chain reaction testing for C trachomatis infection. We compared the results to the equivalent British survey.

RESULTS

1447 individuals contributed FVU specimens (82.6% of survey respondents, 55.3% of those eligible). C trachomatis infection was diagnosed in 3.0% of men and 1.6% of women. Prevalence was highest in men and women aged 18-24 years (4.1% for both). Individuals reporting first heterosexual intercourse before the age of 16, unprotected sexual intercourse with at least one heterosexual partner during the preceding year, concurrent heterosexual relationships during the preceding year, and five or more lifetime heterosexual partners had a higher prevalence. The association was statistically significant only for five or more lifetime partners (adjusted OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3 to 6.9; p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively high prevalence of genital C trachomatis infection among 18-24 year old Slovenians, in the presence of relatively low risk sexual behaviour and low reported incidence rates of chlamydia infection, suggest serious gaps in the diagnosis and treatment of the condition. The results provide support for the introduction of chlamydia screening in Slovenia.

The sexual health of pupils in years 4 to 6 of primary schools in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

There is an urgent need for effective interventions to improve the sexual and reproductive health of adolescents. Reliable data on the sexual health of adolescents are needed to guide the development of such interventions. The aim was to describe the sexual health of pupils in years 4 to 6 of 121 rural primary schools in north western Tanzania, before the implementation of an innovative sexual health intervention in 58 of the schools.

METHODS

A cross sectional survey of primary school pupils in rural Tanzania was carried out. The study population comprised pupils registered in years 4 to 6 of 121 primary schools in 20 rural communities in 1998. Basic demographic information was collected from all pupils seen. Those born before 1 January 1985 (aged approximately 14 years and over) were invited to participate in the survey, and asked about their knowledge and attitudes towards sexual health issues, and their sexual experience. A urine specimen was requested and tested for HIV, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and, for females, pregnancy.

RESULTS

9283 pupils born before 1 January 1985 were enrolled and provided demographic information and a urine sample. Male pupils were significantly older than females (mean age 15.5 years v 14.8 years, p<0.001), but all other demographic characteristics were similar between the sexes. 14 (0.2%) of the enrolled pupils (four male and 10 female) were HIV positive, 83 (0.9%) were positive for CT, and 12 (0.1%) for NG. 32 female pupils (0.8%) were positive by pregnancy test. Sexual experience was reported by one fifth of primary school girls, and by almost half of boys. Only 45/114 (39%) girls with biological markers of sexual activity reported having had sex.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV, CT, NG, and pregnancy were present though at relatively low levels among pupils in years 4 to 6 of primary school. A high proportion of pupils with a biological marker of sexual activity denied ever having had sex. Alternative ways of collecting sensitive data about the sexual behaviour of school pupils should be explored.

Langerhans' cell histiocytosis of the clivus: case report and literature review

This report describes a 5-year-old girl with Langerhans' cell histiocytosis (LCH) of the clivus. To date only five patients, including our patient, have been described with LCH at this site. Our patient differs from those previously reported by her atypical clinical presentation with torticollis, but without a sixth nerve palsy. In addition, she is the first patient to present with concomitant disease elsewhere at the time of diagnosis, i.e. both femoral necks and left proximal humerus. Our patient thus presents unique features and underlines the importance of including LCH in the differential diagnosis of erosive lesions of the clivus.

Osteomyelitis of the ischiopubic synchondrosis: imaging findings

Osteomyelitis of the ischiopubic synchondrosis in children is not rare and presents a diagnostic problem because of the diversity of presentation and the deceptive nature of symptoms. Radiological assessment is extremely difficult because of the variation in normal ossification on radiography and normal physiological uptake on radioisotope bone scan. We present two cases of osteomyelitis of the ischiopubic synchondrosis and describe findings on radiographs, isotope bone scan, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). MRI changes have not been described in any of the case reports in the English literature. Aspiration and biopsy remain the gold standard for diagnosis. However, MRI appearances can significantly increase diagnostic confidence prior to intervention.

Is antenatal syphilis screening still cost effective in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost effectiveness of on-site antenatal syphilis screening and treatment in Mwanza, Tanzania. To compare this intervention with other antenatal and child health interventions, specifically the prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT).

METHODS

The economic costs of adding the intervention to routine antenatal care were assessed. Cost effectiveness (CE) ratios of the intervention were obtained for low birth weight (LBW) live births and stillbirths averted and cost per DALY saved. Cost per DALY saved was also estimated for previous CE studies of syphilis screening. The CE of the intervention at different syphilis prevalence rates was modelled.

RESULTS

The economic cost of the intervention is $1.44 per woman screened, $20 per woman treated, and $187 per adverse birth outcome averted. The cost per DALY saved is $110 with LBW as the only adverse outcome. When including stillbirth, this estimate improves 10-fold to $10.56 per DALY saved. The cost per DALY saved from all syphilis screening studies ranged from $3.97 to $18.73.

CONCLUSIONS

Syphilis screening is shown to be at least as cost effective as PMTCT and more cost effective than many widely implemented interventions. There is urgent need for scaling up syphilis screening and treatment in high prevalence areas. The CE of screening interventions is highly dependent on disease prevalence. In combination, PMTCT and syphilis screening and treatment interventions may achieve economies of scope and thus improved efficiency.

Baseline survey of sexually transmitted infections in a cohort of female bar workers in Mbeya Region, Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

To determine baseline prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI) and other reproductive tract infections (RTI) and their association with HIV as well as sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics in a newly recruited cohort of female bar workers in Mbeya Region, Tanzania.

METHODS

600 female bar workers were recruited from 17 different communities during September to November 2000 and underwent gynaecological examination, laboratory testing for HIV/STI, and interviews using structured questionnaires.

RESULTS

HIV-1 seroprevalence was 68%. Prevalences of STI/RTI were high titre syphilis (TPPA/RPR >/=1/8), 9%; herpes simplex virus 2 antibodies, 87%; chlamydia, 12%; gonorrhoea, 22%; trichomoniasis, 24%; and bacterial vaginosis, 40%. HIV infection was associated with TPPA and HSV-2 seropositivity, bacterial vaginosis and clinically diagnosed genital ulcers, blisters, and warts. Reported high risk sexual behaviour during the past year (having multiple casual partners) was associated with prevalent STI.

CONCLUSION

Female bar workers in Mbeya are at high risk of STI and HIV infection. Targeted STI/HIV prevention interventions for these women and their sexual partners need to be reinforced. Methods should be sought to improve healthcare seeking and to provide easily accessible and affordable STI care services.

Diagnostic X ray dose profiles in molar teeth using Monte Carlo simulation

The dose profiles in molar teeth from diagnostic X rays was calculated using the Monte Carlo software program MCNP4c2. The information calculated supports needs in EPR retrospective dosimetry to account for diagnostic X ray exposures in teeth. Only tooth positions 6, 7 and 8 were simulated (the three teeth furthest back including the wisdom teeth) using a very detailed model of the pertinent physiology. The lingual and buccal halves of teeth were evaluated as were the crown dentin and roots in tooth position 7. Linear dose profiles through the enamel were also calculated.