Exact replication: Foundation of science or game of chance?

The need for replication of initial results has been rediscovered only recently in many fields of research. In preclinical biomedical research, it is common practice to conduct exact replications with the same sample sizes as those used in the initial experiments. Such replication attempts, however, have lower probability of replication than is generally appreciated. Indeed, in the common scenario of an effect just reaching statistical significance, the statistical power of the replication experiment assuming the same effect size is approximately 50%-in essence, a coin toss. Accordingly, we use the provocative analogy of "replicating" a neuroprotective drug animal study with a coin flip to highlight the need for larger sample sizes in replication experiments. Additionally, we provide detailed background for the probability of obtaining a significant p value in a replication experiment and discuss the variability of p values as well as pitfalls of simple binary significance testing in both initial preclinical experiments and replication studies with small sample sizes. We conclude that power analysis for determining the sample size for a replication study is obligatory within the currently dominant hypothesis testing framework. Moreover, publications should include effect size point estimates and corresponding measures of precision, e.g., confidence intervals, to allow readers to assess the magnitude and direction of reported effects and to potentially combine the results of initial and replication study later through Bayesian or meta-analytic approaches.

Impact of pre-admission oral anticoagulation on ischaemic stroke volume, lesion pattern, and frequency of intracranial arterial occlusion in patients with atrial fibrillation

Aims

Therapeutic oral anticoagulation on hospital admission reduces morbidity and mortality after acute ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The underlying mechanism is not fully understood. In order to assess the impact of INR-level on admission on stroke volume, lesion pattern and the frequency of intracranial arterial occlusion, we analysed serial MRI measurements in AF patients suffering acute ischaemic stroke.

Methods and results

This subgroup analysis of the prospective '1000Plus' study included patients with acute ischaemic stroke and known AF or a first episode of AF in hospital. All patients underwent serial brain magnetic resonance imaging. Stroke patients were categorized as follows: Group1, phenprocoumon intake, international normalized ratio (INR) ≥1.7 on admission, no thrombolysis; Group2, INR < 1.7 on admission, thrombolysis; and Group3, INR < 1.7, no thrombolysis. In 98 AF patients {77 ± 9 years, 60% male; median National Institute of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score on admission 5 (interquartile range [IQR] 2-8)} with known AF before admission, territorial infarction was less often found in Group 1 (n = 20) compared with Group 2 + 3 (20% vs. 47%, P = 0.022). Arterial occlusion rate on admission differed among groups (30%, 75%, and 35%, respectively, P = 0.004) but not between Group 1 vs. Group 2 + 3 (30% vs. 45%, P = 0.31). Median FLAIR volume on Days 5-7 was lower in Group1 compared with Group 2 (n = 20) [3.2 cm3 (IQR 1.1-11.3) vs. 18.6 cm3 (IQR 8.2-49.4); P = 0.009] but not compared with Group 2 + 3 [7.8 cm3 (IQR 1.6-25.9); P = 0.23]. An INR ≥ 1.7 on admission was not associated with smaller stroke volume in multivariable regression analysis. Adding 57 patients with a first AF episode during the in-hospital stay, similar results were observed in 155 AF patients.

Conclusion

In this AF cohort, an INR ≥ 1.7 at stroke onset affects lesion pattern but does not affect significantly lower stroke volume and the frequency of arterial occlusion on admission.

Association of obesity, diabetes and hypertension with cognitive impairment in older age

Background

Age-related cognitive impairment is rising in prevalence but is not yet fully characterized in terms of its epidemiology. Here, we aimed to elucidate the role of obesity, diabetes and hypertension as candidate risk factors.

Methods

Original baseline data from 3 studies (OCTOPUS, DECS, SuDoCo) were obtained for secondary analysis of cross-sectional associations of diabetes, hypertension, blood pressure, obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m²) and BMI with presence of cognitive impairment in log-binomial regression analyses. Cognitive impairment was defined as scoring more than 2 standard deviations below controls on at least one of 5–11 cognitive tests. Underweight participants (BMI<18.5 kg/m²) were excluded. Results were pooled across studies in fixed-effects inverse variance models.

Results

Analyses totaled 1545 participants with a mean age of 61 years (OCTOPUS) to 70 years (SuDoCo). Cognitive impairment was found in 29.0% of participants in DECS, 8.2% in SuDoCo and 45.6% in OCTOPUS. In pooled analyses, after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes and hypertension, obesity was associated with a 1.29-fold increased prevalence of cognitive impairment (risk ratio [RR] 1.29; 95% CI 0.98, 1.72). Each 1 kg/m² increment in BMI was associated with 3% increased prevalence (RR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00, 1.06). None of the remaining risk factors were associated with impairment.

Conclusion

Our results show that older people who are obese have higher prevalence of cognitive impairment compared with normal weight and overweight individuals, and independently of co-morbid hypertension or diabetes. Prospective studies are needed to investigate the temporal relationship of the association.

The ratio between cerebral blood flow and Tmax predicts the quality of collaterals in acute ischemic stroke

Background

In acute ischemic stroke the status of collateral circulation is a critical factor in determining outcome. We propose a less invasive alternative to digital subtraction angiography for evaluating collaterals based on dynamic-susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging.

Methods

Perfusion maps of Tmax and cerebral blood flow (CBF) were created for 35 patients with baseline occlusion of a major cerebral artery. Volumes of hypoperfusion were defined as having a Tmax delay of > 4 seconds (Tmax4s) and > 6 seconds (Tmax6s) and a CBF drop below 80% of healthy, contralateral tissue. For each patient a ratio between the volume of the CBF and the Tmax based perfusion deficit was calculated. Associations with collateral status and radiological outcome were assessed with the Mann-Whitney-U test, uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses as well as area under the receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

The CBF/Tmax volume ratios were significantly associated with bad collateral status in crude logistic regression analysis as well as with adjustment for NIHSS at admission and baseline infarct volume (OR = 2.5 95% CI[1.2–5.4] p = 0.020 for CBF/Tmax 4s volume ratio and OR = 1.6 95% CI[1.0–2.6] p = 0.031 for CBF/Tmax6s volume ratio). Moreover, the ratios were significantly correlated to final infarct size (Spearman’s rho = 0.711 and 0.619, respectively for the CBF/Tmax4s volume ratio and CBF/Tmax6s volume ration, all p<0.001). The ratios also had a high area under the ROC curve of 0.93 95%CI[0.86–1.00]) and 0.90 95%CI[0.80–1.00]respectively for predicting poor radiological outcome.

Conclusions

In the setting of acute ischemic stroke the CBF/Tmax volume ratio can be used to differentiate between good and insufficient collateral circulation without the need for invasive procedures like conventional angiography.

The first night effect in multiple sclerosis patients undergoing home-based polysomnography

BACKGROUND

The first night effect (FNE) is a polysomnography (PSG) habituation effect in the first of several consecutive in-laboratory PSGs (I-PSGs). The FNE is caused by the discomfort provoked by electrodes and cables and the exposure to an unfamiliar environment. A reverse FNE (RFNE) with an improved sleep in the first night is characteristic of insomnia, presumably because the video PSG in the sleep laboratory leads to a decrease in the negatively toned cognitive activity. Therefore, two or more I-PSGs are required for an accurate diagnosis. Although the FNE is well documented in I-PSG, little is known about the FNE and the RFNE in home-based PSGs (H-PSGs).

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of a recently published cross-sectional study using H-PSG. Sixty-three consecutive patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS) were investigated by two consecutive H-PSGs without video. The differences between the first and second H-PSGs were analyzed. The patients were classified into four subgroups: no sleep disorder, insomnia, sleep-related breathing disorders (SRBDs), and periodic limb movement disorder or restless legs syndrome (PLMD/RLS).

RESULTS

MS patients suffering from insomnia showed no RFNE. MS patients with SRBD or PLMD/RLS showed no reduced sleep efficiency but significantly less slow wave sleep. Furthermore, SRBD patients showed significantly less non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep, and PLMD/RLS patients were significantly awake longer in the first night after sleep onset (increased wake-after-sleep-onset time) and showed a higher rapid eye movement (REM) latency.

CONCLUSION

SRBD and PLMD/RLS patients showed a significant FNE. Two consecutive H-PSGs are required in these patients to obtain a precise hypnogram even in the ambulatory field. In MS patients suffering from insomnia, no RFNE was found, and in insomnia patients one H-PSG seems to be sufficient.

Safety and preliminary efficacy of deep transcranial magnetic stimulation in MS-related fatigue

Objective:

To conduct a randomized, sham-controlled phase I/IIa study to evaluate the safety and preliminary efficacy of deep brain H-coil repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and the primary motor cortex (MC) in patients with MS with fatigue or depression (NCT01106365).

Methods:

Thirty-three patients with MS were recruited to undergo 18 consecutive rTMS sessions over 6 weeks, followed by follow-up (FU) assessments over 6 weeks. Patients were randomized to receive high-frequency stimulation of the left PFC, MC, or sham stimulation. Primary end point was the safety of stimulation. Preliminary efficacy was assessed based on changes in Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) and Beck Depression Inventory scores. Randomization allowed only analysis of preliminary efficacy for fatigue.

Results:

No serious adverse events were observed. Five patients terminated participation during treatment due to mild side effects. Treatment resulted in a significant median FSS decrease of 1.0 point (95%CI [0.45,1.65]), which was sustained during FU.

Conclusions:

H-coil rTMS is safe and well tolerated in patients with MS. The observed sustained reduction in fatigue after subthreshold MC stimulation warrants further investigation.

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:

NCT01106365.

Classification of evidence:

This study provides Class III evidence that rTMS of the prefrontal or primary MC is not associated with serious adverse effects, although this study is underpowered to state this with any precision.

Increasing efficiency of preclinical research by group sequential designs

Despite the potential benefits of sequential designs, studies evaluating treatments or experimental manipulations in preclinical experimental biomedicine almost exclusively use classical block designs. Our aim with this article is to bring the existing methodology of group sequential designs to the attention of researchers in the preclinical field and to clearly illustrate its potential utility. Group sequential designs can offer higher efficiency than traditional methods and are increasingly used in clinical trials. Using simulation of data, we demonstrate that group sequential designs have the potential to improve the efficiency of experimental studies, even when sample sizes are very small, as is currently prevalent in preclinical experimental biomedicine. When simulating data with a large effect size of d = 1 and a sample size of n = 18 per group, sequential frequentist analysis consumes in the long run only around 80% of the planned number of experimental units. In larger trials (n = 36 per group), additional stopping rules for futility lead to the saving of resources of up to 30% compared to block designs. We argue that these savings should be invested to increase sample sizes and hence power, since the currently underpowered experiments in preclinical biomedicine are a major threat to the value and predictiveness in this research domain.

Natural Killer (NK) Cell Functionality after human Spinal Cord Injury (SCI): protocol of a prospective, longitudinal study

Background

Natural killer (NK) cells comprise the main components of lymphocyte-mediated nonspecific immunity. Through their effector function they play a crucial role combating bacterial and viral challenges. They are also thought to be key contributors to the systemic spinal cord injury-induced immune-deficiency syndrome (SCI-IDS). SCI-IDS increases susceptibility to infection and extends to the post-acute and chronic phases after SCI.

Methods and design

The prospective study of NK cell function after traumatic SCI was carried out in two centers in Berlin, Germany. SCI patients and control patients with neurologically silent vertebral fracture also undergoing surgical stabilization were enrolled. Furthermore healthy controls were included to provide reference data. The NK cell function was assessed at 7 (5–9) days, 14 days (11–28) days, and 10 (8–12) weeks post-trauma. Clinical documentation included the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) impairment scale (AIS), neurological level of injury, infection status, concomitant injury, and medications. The primary endpoint of the study is CD107a expression by NK cells (cytotoxicity marker) 8–12 weeks following SCI. Secondary endpoints are the NK cell’s TNF-α and IFN-γ production by the NK cells 8–12 weeks following SCI.

Discussion

The protocol of this study was developed to investigate the hypotheses whether i) SCI impairs NK cell function throughout the post-acute and sub-acute phases after SCI and ii) the degree of impairment relates to lesion height and severity. A deeper understanding of the SCI-IDS is crucial to enable strategies for prevention of infections, which are associated with poor neurological outcome and elevated mortality.

Trial registration

DRKS00009855.

Clinical-Radiological Parameters Improve the Prediction of the Thrombolysis Time Window by Both MRI Signal Intensities and DWI-FLAIR Mismatch

Background: With regard to acute stroke, patients with unknown time from stroke onset are not eligible for thrombolysis. Quantitative diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MRI relative signal intensity (rSI) biomarkers have been introduced to predict eligibility for thrombolysis, but have shown heterogeneous results in the past. In the present work, we investigated whether the inclusion of easily obtainable clinical-radiological parameters would improve the prediction of the thrombolysis time window by rSIs and compared their performance to the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch. Methods: In a retrospective study, patients from 2 centers with proven stroke with onset <12 h were included. The DWI lesion was segmented and overlaid on ADC and FLAIR images. rSI mean and SD, were calculated as follows: (mean ROI value/mean value of the unaffected hemisphere). Additionally, the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch was evaluated. Prediction of the thrombolysis time window was evaluated by the area-under-the-curve (AUC) derived from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Factors such as the association of age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, MRI field strength, lesion size, vessel occlusion and Wahlund-Score with rSI were investigated and the models were adjusted and stratified accordingly. Results: In 82 patients, the unadjusted rSI measures DWI-mean and -SD showed the highest AUCs (AUC 0.86-0.87). Adjustment for clinical-radiological covariates significantly improved the performance of FLAIR-mean (0.91) and DWI-SD (0.91). The best prediction results based on the AUC were found for the final stratified and adjusted models of DWI-SD (0.94) and FLAIR-mean (0.96) and a multivariable DWI-FLAIR model (0.95). The adjusted visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch did not perform in a significantly worse manner (0.89). ADC-rSIs showed fair performance in all models. Conclusions: Quantitative DWI and FLAIR MRI biomarkers as well as the visual DWI-FLAIR mismatch provide excellent prediction of eligibility for thrombolysis in acute stroke, when easily obtainable clinical-radiological parameters are included in the prediction models.

Abstract WP50: MRI Biomarkers in Acute Stroke: Addition of Clinical Parameters Improves the Identification of Patients Eligible for Thrombolysis

Introduction: Patients with unknown time from stroke onset, e.g. in wake-up stroke, are not eligible for thrombolyic treatment. Relative signal intensities (rSI) of DWI and FLAIR MRI are biomarkers for eligibility for thrombolysis, but have shown heterogeneous results to date. We investigated if the addition of available clinical parameters improves the prediction of the thrombolysis time window in patients with acute stroke.

Hypothesis: Inclusion of clinical parameters improves the prediction of the thrombolysis time window by quantitative MRI biomarkers

Methods: Patients from two centers with proven stroke and stroke-onset <12 hours were included in a retrospective design. The DWI lesion was segmented and overlaid on ADC and FLAIR maps. rSI mean and standard deviation (std) were calculated: mean VOI value/mean value of the unaffected hemisphere. Prediction of the thrombolysis time window was evaluated by the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Age, NIHSS, MRI field strength, lesion size, vessel occlusion and Wahlund-Score were included in adjusted and stratified regression models.

Results: 82 patients were included. In the unadjusted analysis, DWI-mean and -std (AUC: 0.86, 0.87) performed best. Adjustment for clinical parameters significantly improved the performance of FLAIR-mean (0.87) and DWI-std (0.91). The best performance was found for the final stratified and adjusted models of DWI-std (0.94) and FLAIR-mean (0.96). ADC-rSIs showed no clinically acceptable performance in all models.

Conclusion: rSIs of DWI and FLAIR MRI predict eligibility for thrombolysis in acute stroke with high precision, when easily available clinical parameters are included in the prediction.

Where Have All the Rodents Gone? The Effects of Attrition in Experimental Research on Cancer and Stroke

Given small sample sizes, loss of animals in preclinical experiments can dramatically alter results. However, effects of attrition on distortion of results are unknown. We used a simulation study to analyze the effects of random and biased attrition. As expected, random loss of samples decreased statistical power, but biased removal, including that of outliers, dramatically increased probability of false positive results. Next, we performed a meta-analysis of animal reporting and attrition in stroke and cancer. Most papers did not adequately report attrition, and extrapolating from the results of the simulation data, we suggest that their effect sizes were likely overestimated.

Quantitative motor assessment of muscular weakness in myasthenia gravis: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Muscular weakness in myasthenia gravis (MG) is commonly assessed using Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score (QMG). More objective and quantitative measures may complement the use of clinical scales and might detect subclinical affection of muscles. We hypothesized that muscular weakness in patients with MG can be quantified with the non-invasive Quantitative Motor (Q-Motor) test for Grip Force Assessment (QGFA) and Involuntary Movement Assessment (QIMA) and that pathological findings correlate with disease severity as measured by QMG.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional pilot study investigating patients with confirmed diagnosis of MG. Data was compared to healthy controls (HC). Subjects were asked to lift a device (250 and 500 g) equipped with electromagnetic sensors that measured grip force (GF) and three-dimensional changes in position and orientation. These were used to calculate the position index (PI) and orientation index (OI) as measures for involuntary movements due to muscular weakness.

RESULTS

Overall, 40 MG patients and 23 HC were included. PI and OI were significantly higher in MG patients for both weights in the dominant and non-dominant hand. Subgroup analysis revealed that patients with clinically ocular myasthenia gravis (OMG) also showed significantly higher values for PI and OI in both hands and for both weights. Disease severity correlates with QIMA performance in the non-dominant hand.

CONCLUSION

Q-Motor tests and particularly QIMA may be useful objective tools for measuring motor impairment in MG and seem to detect subclinical generalized motor signs in patients with OMG. Q-Motor parameters might serve as sensitive endpoints for clinical trials in MG.

Towards whole-body fluorescence imaging in humans

Dynamic near-infrared fluorescence (DNIF) whole-body imaging of small animals has become a popular tool in experimental biomedical research. In humans, however, the field of view has been limited to body parts, such as rheumatoid hands, diabetic feet or sentinel lymph nodes. Here we present a new whole-body DNIF-system suitable for adult subjects. We explored whether this system (i) allows dynamic whole-body fluorescence imaging and (ii) can detect modulations in skin perfusion. The non-specific fluorescent probe indocyanine green (ICG) was injected intravenously into two subjects, and fluorescence images were obtained at 5 Hz. The in- and out-flow kinetics of ICG have been shown to correlate with tissue perfusion. To validate the system, skin perfusion was modulated by warming and cooling distinct areas on the chest and the abdomen. Movies of fluorescence images show a bolus passage first in the face, then in the chest, abdomen and finally in the periphery (~10, 15, 20 and 30 seconds, respectively). When skin perfusion is augmented by warming, bolus arrives about 5 seconds earlier than when the skin is cooled and perfusion decreased. Calculating bolus arrival times and spatial fitting of basis time courses extracted from different regions of interest allowed a mapping of local differences in subcutaneous skin perfusion. This experiment is the first to demonstrate the feasibility of whole-body dynamic fluorescence imaging in humans. Since the whole-body approach demonstrates sensitivity to circumscribed alterations in skinperfusion, it may be used to target autonomous changes in polyneuropathy and to screen for peripheral vascular diseases.