Smoothing effect for spatially distributed renewable resources and its impact on power grid robustness

In this paper, we show that spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs greatly influences the robustness of the power grids against large fluctuations of the effective power. First, we evaluate the spatial correlation among renewable energy outputs. We find that the spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs depends on the locations, while the influence of the spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs on power grids is not well known. Thus, second, by employing the topology of the power grid in eastern Japan, we analyze the robustness of the power grid with spatial correlation of renewable energy outputs. The analysis is performed by using a realistic differential-algebraic equations model. The results show that the spatial correlation of the energy resources strongly degrades the robustness of the power grid. Our results suggest that we should consider the spatial correlation of the renewable energy outputs when estimating the stability of power grids.

Relationship Between Graft Liver Function and the Change of Graft Liver and Spleen Volumes After Technical Variant Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Although there have been a few reports describing the changes of graft liver and spleen volumes after liver transplantation (LT), little is known about the relationship between graft liver function and the changes of these volumes after technical variant liver transplantation (TVLT). We therefore performed a retrospective study to investigate the relationship between graft liver function and these volumes after TVLT.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated the cases of 140 TVLT procedures that were performed in our department between July 1987 and October 2012 and in which follow-up was conducted at our department. We calculated the graft liver volume to standard liver volume (GV/SLV) ratio, the spleen volume to standard spleen volume (SV/SSV) ratio, and the spleen volume to graft liver volume (S/L) ratio by CT volumetry. We clarified the relationship between graft liver function (according to the pathological findings) and the graft liver and spleen volumes at 2, 5, and 10 years after TVLT.

RESULTS

In the normal liver function group, the GV/SLV, SV/SSV, and S/L ratios decreased until 6 months after TVLT and then converged at 10 years after TVLT to 0.95, 1.27, and 0.27, respectively. In the graft liver failure group, the GV/SLV, SV/SSV, and S/L ratios at 10 years after TVLT were 0.67, 5.01, and 1.55, respectively. A significant correlation was observed between the GV/SLV ratio and the presence of mild liver fibrosis at 2 and 5 years after TVLT (P = .03 and P = .04, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-transplant CT-volumetry is a noninvasive and effective means of evaluating graft liver status.

On the limits of probabilistic forecasting in nonlinear times series analysis

The ignorance score measures the quality of probabilistic forecasting. In this paper, we study its basic properties in the perfect model scenario, i.e., under the assumption that the system producing the data is perfectly known. Two further qualifications are added to this general setting. First, the system is a discrete-time, measure-preserving dynamical system. Moreover, randomness results from the quantization of the state space (i.e., from the finite precision of the observations), rather than being introduced via observational noise. In this "non-linear" perfect model scenario we derive, in particular, the admissible domain of the ignorance score and relate it with the ignorance score in imperfect models.

Possibility of short-term probabilistic forecasts for large earthquakes making good use of the limitations of existing catalogs

Earthquakes are quite hard to predict. One of the possible reasons can be the fact that the existing catalogs of past earthquakes are limited at most to the order of 100 years, while their characteristic time scale is sometimes greater than that time span. Here we rather use these limitations positively and characterize some large earthquake events as abnormal events that are not included there. When we constructed probabilistic forecasts for large earthquakes in Japan based on similarity and difference to their past patterns-which we call known and unknown abnormalities, respectively-our forecast achieved probabilistic gains of 5.7 and 2.4 against a time-independent model for main shocks with the magnitudes of 7 or above. Moreover, the two abnormal conditions covered 70% of days whose maximum magnitude was 7 or above.

Total internal biliary diversion during liver transplantation for type 1 progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis: a novel approach

LT for PFIC type 1 is often complicated by postoperative diarrhea and recurrent graft steatosis. A 26-month-old female child with cholestatic jaundice, pruritus, diarrhea, and growth retardation revealed total bilirubin 9.1 mg/dL, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase 64 IU/L, and TBA 295.8 μmol/L. Genetic analysis confirmed ATP8B1 defects. A LT (segment 2, 3 graft) from the heterozygous father was performed. Biliary diversion was performed by a 35-cm jejunum conduit between the graft hepatic duct and the mid-transverse colon. Stools became pigmented immediately. Follow-up at 138 days revealed resolution of jaundice and pruritus and soft-to-hard stools (6-8 daily). Radioisotope hepato-biliary scintigraphy (days 26, 68, and 139) confirmed unobstructed bile drainage into the colon (t_1/2 34, 27, and 19 minutes, respectively). Contrast meal follow-through at day 62 confirmed the absence of any colo-jejuno-hepatic reflux. At 140 days, contrast follow-through via the biliary stent revealed patent jejuno-colonic anastomosis and satisfactory transit. Graft biopsy at LT, 138 days, and 9 months follow-up revealed comparable grades of macrovesicular steatosis (<20%). TIBD during LT may be a clinically effective stoma-free biliary diversion and may prevent recurrent graft steatosis following LT for PFIC type 1.

Age-related decline of cerebral oxygen metabolism in normal population detected with positron emission tomography

Using positron emission tomography (PET), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) were measured in 32 healthy volunteers aged from 27 to 67 years. In bilateral putamen, left supratemporal, left infrafrontal and left parietal cortices, CMRO2 showed a significant decline during aging. The age-related decline of CBF was seen only at the left superior temporal cortex. The mean CMRO2 was significantly lower in the elder group (over 51 years old) than in the younger group (under 50 years old), whereas no significant difference in mean CBF between the two groups. The poor correlation of CBF to the age could be explained partly by the fact that CBF is easily influenced by the physiological, psychological and/or environmental factors. The age-related changes of CMRO2 were more marked in the association cortices of the left hemisphere than in that of the right hemisphere.

Detecting Causality by Combined Use of Multiple Methods: Climate and Brain Examples

Identifying causal relations from time series is the first step to understanding the behavior of complex systems. Although many methods have been proposed, few papers have applied multiple methods together to detect causal relations based on time series generated from coupled nonlinear systems with some unobserved parts. Here we propose the combined use of three methods and a majority vote to infer causality under such circumstances. Two of these methods are proposed here for the first time, and all of the three methods can be applied even if the underlying dynamics is nonlinear and there are hidden common causes. We test our methods with coupled logistic maps, coupled Rössler models, and coupled Lorenz models. In addition, we show from ice core data how the causal relations among the temperature, the CH4 level, and the CO2 level in the atmosphere changed in the last 800,000 years, a conclusion also supported by irregularly sampled data analysis. Moreover, these methods show how three regions of the brain interact with each other during the visually cued, two-choice arm reaching task. Especially, we demonstrate that this is due to bottom up influences at the beginning of the task, while there exist mutual influences between the posterior medial prefrontal cortex and the presupplementary motor area. Based on our results, we conclude that identifying causality with an appropriate ensemble of multiple methods ensures the validity of the obtained results more firmly.

Decision-making ability of Physarum polycephalum enhanced by its coordinated spatiotemporal oscillatory dynamics

An amoeboid unicellular organism, a plasmodium of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, exhibits complex spatiotemporal oscillatory dynamics and sophisticated information processing capabilities while deforming its amorphous body. We previously devised an 'amoeba-based computer (ABC),' that implemented optical feedback control to lead this amoeboid organism to search for a solution to the traveling salesman problem (TSP). In the ABC, the shortest TSP route (the optimal solution) is represented by the shape of the organism in which the body area (nutrient absorption) is maximized while the risk of being exposed to aversive light stimuli is minimized. The shortness of the TSP route found by ABC, therefore, serves as a quantitative measure of the optimality of the decision made by the organism. However, it remains unclear how the decision-making ability of the organism originates from the oscillatory dynamics of the organism. We investigated the number of coexisting traveling waves in the spatiotemporal patterns of the oscillatory dynamics of the organism. We show that a shorter TSP route can be found when the organism exhibits a lower number of traveling waves. The results imply that the oscillatory dynamics are highly coordinated throughout the global body. Based on the results, we discuss the fact that the decision-making ability of the organism can be enhanced not by uncorrelated random fluctuations, but by its highly coordinated oscillatory dynamics.

Coarse-graining time series data: Recurrence plot of recurrence plots and its application for music

We propose a nonlinear time series method for characterizing two layers of regularity simultaneously. The key of the method is using the recurrence plots hierarchically, which allows us to preserve the underlying regularities behind the original time series. We demonstrate the proposed method with musical data. The proposed method enables us to visualize both the local and the global musical regularities or two different features at the same time. Furthermore, the determinism scores imply that the proposed method may be useful for analyzing emotional response to the music.

Edit distance for marked point processes revisited: An implementation by binary integer programming

We implement the edit distance for marked point processes [Suzuki et al., Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos 20, 3699-3708 (2010)] as a binary integer program. Compared with the previous implementation using minimum cost perfect matching, the proposed implementation has two advantages: first, by using the proposed implementation, we can apply a wide variety of software and hardware, even spin glasses and coherent ising machines, to calculate the edit distance for marked point processes; second, the proposed implementation runs faster than the previous implementation when the difference between the numbers of events in two time windows for a marked point process is large.

Parsimonious description for predicting high-dimensional dynamics

When we observe a system, we often cannot observe all its variables and may have some of its limited measurements. Under such a circumstance, delay coordinates, vectors made of successive measurements, are useful to reconstruct the states of the whole system. Although the method of delay coordinates is theoretically supported for high-dimensional dynamical systems, practically there is a limitation because the calculation for higher-dimensional delay coordinates becomes more expensive. Here, we propose a parsimonious description of virtually infinite-dimensional delay coordinates by evaluating their distances with exponentially decaying weights. This description enables us to predict the future values of the measurements faster because we can reuse the calculated distances, and more accurately because the description naturally reduces the bias of the classical delay coordinates toward the stable directions. We demonstrate the proposed method with toy models of the atmosphere and real datasets related to renewable energy.

Tracking Time Evolution of Collective Attention Clusters in Twitter: Time Evolving Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

Micro-blogging services, such as Twitter, offer opportunities to analyse user behaviour. Discovering and distinguishing behavioural patterns in micro-blogging services is valuable. However, it is difficult and challenging to distinguish users, and to track the temporal development of collective attention within distinct user groups in Twitter. In this paper, we formulate this problem as tracking matrices decomposed by Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation for time-sequential matrix data, and propose a novel extension of Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation, which we refer to as Time Evolving Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation (TENMF). In our method, we describe users and words posted in some time interval by a matrix, and use several matrices as time-sequential data. Subsequently, we apply Time Evolving Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation to these time-sequential matrices. TENMF can decompose time-sequential matrices, and can track the connection among decomposed matrices, whereas previous NMF decomposes a matrix into two lower dimension matrices arbitrarily, which might lose the time-sequential connection. Our proposed method has an adequately good performance on artificial data. Moreover, we present several results and insights from experiments using real data from Twitter.

Perception and Production of Singleton and Geminate Stops in Japanese: Implications for the Theory of Acoustic Invariance

The theory of relational acoustic invariance claims that there are stable acoustic properties in speech signals that correspond to a phonological feature, and that the perception system utilizes these acoustic properties for stable perception of a phoneme. The present study examines whether such an invariance exists in native listeners' perception of Japanese singleton and geminate stops despite variability in speaking rate and word length, and whether this perception corresponds to production. Native Japanese listeners identified singleton and geminate stops in continua of 3- and 4-mora words spoken at different speaking rates. Results indicated that the perception boundary is well predicted by a linear function with two variables: durations of stop closure and the (C)V(C)CV portion (with the contrasting stops underlined) of the 3- and 4-mora words. In addition, these two variables were in a consistent relationship for both perception and production of words containing 2-4 moras. The results support the relational acoustic invariance theory.

Predicting disease progression from short biomarker series using expert advice algorithm

Well-trained clinicians may be able to provide diagnosis and prognosis from very short biomarker series using information and experience gained from previous patients. Although mathematical methods can potentially help clinicians to predict the progression of diseases, there is no method so far that estimates the patient state from very short time-series of a biomarker for making diagnosis and/or prognosis by employing the information of previous patients. Here, we propose a mathematical framework for integrating other patients' datasets to infer and predict the state of the disease in the current patient based on their short history. We extend a machine-learning framework of "prediction with expert advice" to deal with unstable dynamics. We construct this mathematical framework by combining expert advice with a mathematical model of prostate cancer. Our model predicted well the individual biomarker series of patients with prostate cancer that are used as clinical samples.

Natural history of bleeding risk in colonic diverticulosis patients: a long-term colonoscopy-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The natural history of bleeding risk from colonic diverticulosis remains unclear.

AIM

To identify the incidence of bleeding in colonic diverticulosis patients and associated risk factors.

METHODS

A cohort of 1514 patients with colonoscopy-confirmed asymptomatic diverticulosis was selected between 2001 and 2013. Age, sex and location of colonic diverticulosis (right or left side, or bilateral) were assessed. The endpoint was a bleeding event, and data were censored at the time of last colonoscopy. The cumulative and overall incidences of bleeding were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier and person-years methods. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 46 months. Bleeding events occurred in 35 patients, and the median time-to-event interval was 50 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative incidence of diverticular bleeding was 0.21% at 12 months, 2.2% at 60 months and 9.5% at 120 months. By the person-years method, the overall incidence rate of bleeding was 0.46 per 1000 patient-years. On multivariate analysis, age ≥70 (aHR. 3.7) and bilateral diverticulosis (aHR, 2.4) were significant risk factors for bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

This long-term follow-up study demonstrated that the cumulative incidence of bleeding from diverticulosis was approximately 2% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years, and the overall incidence was 0.46 per 1000 patient-years. Bilateral diverticulosis increased the risk of bleeding.

Effects of rotational acetabular osteotomy on the mechanical stress within the hip joint in patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip

In this study we used subject-specific finite element analysis to investigate the mechanical effects of rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) on the hip joint and analysed the correlation between various radiological measurements and mechanical stress in the hip joint.

We evaluated 13 hips in 12 patients (two men and ten women, mean age at surgery 32.0 years; 19 to 46) with developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) who were treated by RAO.

Subject-specific finite element models were constructed from CT data. The centre–edge (CE) angle, acetabular head index (AHI), acetabular angle and acetabular roof angle (ARA) were measured on anteroposterior pelvic radiographs taken before and after RAO. The relationship between equivalent stress in the hip joint and radiological measurements was analysed.

The equivalent stress in the acetabulum decreased from 4.1 MPa (2.7 to 6.5) pre-operatively to 2.8 MPa (1.8 to 3.6) post-operatively (p < 0.01). There was a moderate correlation between equivalent stress in the acetabulum and the radiological measurements: CE angle (R = –0.645, p < 0.01); AHI (R = –0.603, p < 0.01); acetabular angle (R = 0.484, p = 0.02); and ARA (R = 0.572, p < 0.01).

The equivalent stress in the acetabulum of patients with DDH decreased after RAO. Correction of the CE angle, AHI and ARA was considered to be important in reducing the mechanical stress in the hip joint.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:492–7.

Prophylactic intra-arterial administration of fasudil hydrochloride for vasospasm following subarachnoid haemorrhage

PURPOSE

We evaluated patients treated with prophylactic intra-arterial administration of fasudil hydrochloride (IAF) after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between August 1998 and December 2012, 92 patients with aneurysmal SAH were treated with IAF for angiographic vasospasm without ischemic symptoms after their follow-up angiography. Patients comprised 50 women and 42 men, aged 24-83 (mean 56.6) years. IAF consisted of 15 mg of fasudil hydrochloride dissolved in 20 ml physiological saline and injected through a catheter during approximately 15 min, after diagnostic angiography. The clinical outcome was evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at discharge and ischemic lesions resulting from vasospasm were assessed on computed tomography (CT) scan at discharge.

RESULTS

Forty-eight patients underwent surgical clipping and 44 patients underwent endovascular coiling. Angiographic improvement was observed in all patients (100 %). At discharge, 76 (83.0 %) of 92 patients showed good recovery on GOS. Nine patients developed progression of delayed ischemic neurological deficits (DIND) and three of these patients had ischemic lesions on CT scans. No patient had any significant changes in vital signs or any other adverse effects resulting from IAF.

CONCLUSION

IAF therapy was safe and effective for patients with vasospasm following SAH. Prophylactic IAF therapy may prevent symptomatic vasospasm.