Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other populations. Internationally imported cases are currently being reported in several different locations. Early detection of imported cases is critical for containment of the virus. Based on air travel volume estimates from Wuhan to international destinations and using a generalized linear regression model we identify locations which may potentially have undetected internationally imported cases.

70 Prevalence of Sarcopenia in A Longitudinal UK Cohort Study Using Ewgsop2 Criteria Varies Widely Depending on Which Measures of Muscle Strength and Performance are Used

Background

The European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People 2 (EWGSOP2) guidelines have recently been published to aid diagnosis of sarcopenia in the clinical setting and to allow for better comparison between research studies. The guidelines recommend several different tests for diagnosing sarcopenia. We hypothesised that the prevalence of sarcopenia might vary depending on which tests are used.

Methods

We used data from Wave 3 of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 study, a longitudinal ageing study of healthy, community dwelling older adults (n= 697, 52% men, mean age 76y), to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia using the suggested cut-offs in the EWGSOP2 guidelines. Probable sarcopenia was defined as low muscle strength (measured by handgrip strength and 5x chair stand test), confirmed sarcopenia was defined as low muscle strength + low lean mass (measured by bioimpedance analysis), and severe sarcopenia was defined as confirmed sarcopenia + low muscle performance (measured by gait speed and short physical performance battery score). SPSS version 24.0 was used for statistical analysis.

Results

The maximum prevalence of probable sarcopenia was 24.2% in men and 24.8% in women, of confirmed sarcopenia was 7.4% in men and 11.0% in women, and of severe sarcopenia was 4.6% in men and 5.9% in women, when either of the cut-offs for muscle strength +/- muscle performance were met. When using only one measure of muscle strength +/- performance, rates of probable sarcopenia ranged from 7.7% to 21.1% in men and 5.9% to 21.3% in women; rates of confirmed sarcopenia ranged from 3.9% to 5.3% in men and 5.1% to 9% in women; and rates of severe sarcopenia ranged from 1.4% to 3.9% in men and from 2.0% to 5.1% in women.

Conclusions

In a UK-based longitudinal ageing study we found that the prevalence of probable, confirmed and severe sarcopenia varied widely using the EWGSOP2 guidelines depending on which identifying tests were used. We found that the cut-off points suggested for some of the measures in the guidelines are not comparable and may lead to differing groups being identified as sarcopenic between different trials. We suggest modification of the cut-offs to adjust for this.

Rugby World Cup 2019 injury surveillance study

Background

Full contact team sports, such as rugby union, have high incidences of injury. Injury surveillance studies underpin player welfare programmes in rugby union.

Objective

To determine the incidence, severity, nature and causes of injuries sustained during the Rugby World Cup 2019.

Methods

A prospective, whole population study following the definitions and procedures recommended in the consensus statement for epidemiologic studies in rugby union. Output measures included players' age (years), stature (cm), body mass (kg), playing position, and group-level incidence (injuries/1000 player-hours), severity (days-absence), injury burden (days absence/1000 player-hours), location (%), type (%) and inciting event (%) of injuries.

Results

Overall incidences of injury were 79.4 match injuries/1000 player-match-hours (95% CI: 67.4 to 93.6) and 1.5 training injuries/1000 player-training-hours (95% CI: 1.0 to 2.3). The overall mean severity of injury was 28.9 (95% CI: 20.0 to 37.8) days absence during matches and 14.8 (95% CI: 4.1 to 25.5) days absence during training. The most common locations and types of match injuries were head/face (22.4%), posterior thigh (12.6%), ligament sprain (21.7%) and muscle strain (20.3%); the ankle (24.0%), posterior thigh (16.0%), muscle strain (44.0%) and ligament sprain (16.0%) were the most common locations and types of injuries during training. Tackling (28.7%), collisions (16.9%) and running (16.9%) were responsible for most match injuries and non-contact (36.0%) and contact (32.0%) rugby skills activities for training injuries.

Conclusion

The incidence, severity, nature and inciting events associated with match and training injuries at Rugby World Cup 2019 were similar to those reported for Rugby World Cups 2007, 2011 and 2015.

RTT-led IGRT for cervix cancer; training, implementation and validation

INTRODUCTION

IGRT in cervical cancer treatment delivery is complex due to significant target and organs at risk (OAR) motion. Implementing image assessment of soft-tissue target and OAR position to improve accuracy is recommended. We report the development and refinement of a training and competency programme (TCP), leading to on-line Radiation Therapist (RTT) led soft-tissue assessment, evaluated by a prospective audit.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The TCP comprised didactic lectures and practical sessions, supported by a comprehensive workbook. The content was decided by a team comprised of Clinical Oncologists, RTTs, and Physicists. On completion of training, RTT soft-tissue review proficiency (after bony anatomy registration) was assessed against a clinician gold-standard from a database of 20 cervical cancer CBCT images. Reviews were graded pass or fail based on PTV coverage assessment and decision taken in concordance with the gold-standard. Parity was set at ≥80% agreement.The initial TCP (stage one) focussed on offline verification and decision making. Sixteen RTTs completed this stage, four achieved ≥80%. This was not sufficient to support clinical implementation.The TCP was redesigned, more stringent review guidelines and greater anatomy teaching was added. TCP stage two focussed on online verification and decision making supported by a decision flowchart. Twenty-one RTTs completed this TCP, all achieved ≥80%. This supported clinical implementation of RTT-led soft-tissue review under prospective audit conditions.The prospective audit was conducted between March 2017 and August 2017. Daily online review was performed by two trained RTTs. Online review and decision making proficiency was evaluated by a clinician.

RESULTS

Thirteen patients were included in the audit. Daily online RTT-led IGRT was achieved for all 343 fractions. Two-hundred CBCT images were reviewed offline by the clinician; the mean number of reviews per patient was 15. 192/200 (96%) RTT image reviews were in agreement with clinician review, presenting excellent concordance.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Multidisciplinary involvement in training development, redesign of the TCP and inclusion of summative competency assessment were important factors to support RTT skill development. Consequently, RTT-led cervical cancer soft-tissue IGRT was clinically implemented in the hospital.

Determination of β-Carotene in Supplements and Raw Materials by Reversed-Phase High Pressure Liquid Chromatography: Collaborative Study

Twelve laboratories representing 4 countries participated in an interlaboratory study conducted to determine all-trans-β-carotene and total β-carotene in dietary supplements and raw materials. Thirteen samples were sent as blind duplicates to the collaborators. Results obtained from 11 laboratories are reported. For products composed as softgels and tablets that were analyzed for total β-carotene, the reproducibility relative standard deviation (RSDR) ranged from 3.35 to 23.09% and the HorRat values ranged from 1.06 to 3.72. For these products analyzed for trans β-carotene, the reproducibility relative standard deviation (RSDR) ranged from 4.28 to 22.76% and the HorRat values ranged from 0.92 to 3.37. The RSDr and HorRat values in the analysis of a beadlet raw material were substantial and it is believed that the variability within the material itself introduced significant variation in subsampling. The method uses high pressure liquid chromatography (LC) in the reversed-phase mode with visible light absorbance for detection and quantitation. If high levels of α-carotenes are present, a second LC system is used for additional separation and quantitation of the carotene species. It is recommended that the method be adopted as an AOAC Official Method.

P3419Independent effects of visceral, subcutaneous and liver fat, and fat-free mass on cardiometabolic risk factors in teenagers

Acknowledgement/Funding

Alexander Jones is funded by a British Heart Foundation Intermediate Clinical Research Fellowship (FS/18/22/33479)

An initial evaluation of the effect of a novel regional block needle with tip-tracking technology on the novice performance of cadaveric ultrasound-guided sciatic nerve block

Visibility of the needle tip is difficult to maintain during ultrasound-guided nerve block. A new needle has been developed that incorporates a piezo element 2-2.3 mm from the tip, activated by ultrasound. The electrical signal manifests as a coloured circle surrounding the needle tip, and allows real-time tracking. We hypothesised that novice regional anaesthetists would perform nerve block better with the tracker turned on rather than off. Our primary objective was to evaluate the new needle by measuring the performance of novice anaesthetists conducting simulated sciatic block on the soft embalmed Thiel cadaver. Training consisted of a lecture, scanning in volunteers and practice on cadavers. Testing entailed scanning the sciatic nerve of a cadaver and conducting 20 in-plane sciatic blocks in the mid-to-upper thigh region. Subjects were randomised equally, in groups of five, according to the sequence: tracker on/off/on/off; or tracker off/on/off/on. Video recordings were assessed by six raters for steps performed correctly and errors committed. Eight subjects were recruited and 160 videos were analysed. Using the tracking needle, five correct steps improved and one error reduced. The benefits included: better identification of the needle tip before advancing the needle, OR (95%CI) 3.4 (1.6-7.7; p < 0.001); better alignment of the needle to the transducer, 3.1 (1.3-8.7; p = 0.009); and better visibility of the needle tip 3.0 (1.4-7.3; p = 0.005). In conclusion, use of the tracker needle improved the sciatic block performance of novices on the soft embalmed cadaver.

A66 Tracing the evolutionary history of an emerging Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:- clone in the United States

Salmonellosis is one of the leading causes of foodborne disease worldwide, with an estimated one million cases a year in the United States. Salmonella 4,[5],12: i:-, a monophasic variant of Salmonella typhimurium, is an emerging serovar that has been associated with multiple foodborne outbreaks throughout the world, mostly attributed to pig and pig products. Recently, we have demonstrated that two distinct groups of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:- circulate in the USA and Europe, with the majority of isolates recovered during recent years belonging to an emerging multidrug-resistant clade (Elnekave et al. 2018). We applied Bayesian phylodynamic reconstruction to uncover the evolutionary history of this clade. We used a dataset of whole-genome sequences of 1446 4,[5],12:i:- isolates from different sources (livestock, human, food products, and others) from the USA (n = 752) and Europe (n = 694), collected between 2008 and 2017 and belonging to the Multilocus Subtype 34, which was predominant in the emerging clade (Elnekave et al. 2018). A subset (n = 110) of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i: isolates was then randomly selected after stratifying by location and year of isolation in order to achieve balanced sampling. Evidence of temporal signal was confirmed by looking at root-to-tip divergences using TempEst. Evolutionary hypotheses using strict and relaxed-clock models were tested using BEAST for a variety of demographic models and assuming a general time reversible substitution model. Model selection was performed by estimating Bayes Factors using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling. The selected model was then used for applying discrete trait models comparing different scenarios of transmission between locations (i.e. bidirectional symmetric/asymmetric or unidirectional). Our preliminary phylodynamic inference results indicate that the origin of this subtype was in Europe and dates back to 1990 (HPD 95%: 1984–2001). We report an exponential growth rate of 0.362 per year, which corresponds to a doubling time of 1.43 years. Our results suggest that this subtype was introduced to the US in the year 2000 (HPD 95%: 1994–2006). Phylodynamic analysis suggests that the recent increase in isolation of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:- from different sources in the USA may be due to the exponential expansion of an emerging clone which originated in Europe and then expanded to the USA. The emergence and expansion of this serovar is of great public health importance due to the high prevalence of multidrug resistance traits found in USA isolates from this group and especially due to the presence of plasmid-mediated resistance genes for quinolones and extended spectrum cephalosporins, key antimicrobials used for the treatment of invasive Salmonella infections.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of dogs with presumed primary renal lymphoma

OBJECTIVES

To characterise the presentation, clinicopathologic data and outcome of 29 dogs with presumed primary renal lymphoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of medical records of dogs with suspected primary renal lymphoma from 11 institutions.

RESULTS

All dogs were substage b, and lethargy and gastrointestinal signs were common presenting complaints, as were azotaemia (n=25; 86%) and erythrocytosis (n=15; 51%) on biochemical testing. Ultrasonography typically revealed bilateral renal lesions (n=23; 79%), renomegaly (n=22; 76%) and abdominal lymphadenopathy (n=14; 48%). Chemotherapy was the only treatment in 23 dogs, of which 11 responded, all considered partial responses. For all dogs the median progression-free survival and median overall survival times were 10 days (range: 1 to 126) and 12 days (range: 1 to 212), respectively, and for dogs that responded to chemotherapy 41 days (range: 10 to 126) and 47 days (range: 10 to 212), respectively.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Primary renal lymphoma in dogs appears to be associated with a poor prognosis and short-lived response to chemotherapy.

Differential Relapse Patterns for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Subtypes Adenocarcinoma and Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Implications for Radiation Oncology

AIMS

Curative-intent (radical) radiotherapy aims to control local disease and cure non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The predominant subtypes of NSCLC are adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). The radiotherapy paradigm offered to patients does not differ according to these two subtypes. Relapse patterns and disease control rates for adenocarcinoma and SCC treated with radical radiotherapy were determined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A radical radiotherapy database covering the period from 2004 to June 2016 was examined to determine the first sites of relapse and the actuarial local and distant control rates.

RESULTS

In total, 537 patients with known pathological subtype were treated over the period. In 39 (7%), the site of first relapse was uncertain. Of the remainder, 203 (41%) had adenocarcinoma and 295 (59%) had SCC. At a median follow-up of 16.4 months, 58% had relapsed. There was a difference in relapse patterns (chi-squared test P < 0.0005), with a higher rate of first relapse locally in SCC (42% of all patients versus 24%) and a higher rate of first relapse in the brain for adenocarcinoma (14% versus 3%). The actuarial local control rate was worse for SCC (hazard ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.5-0.9, P = 0.002). The brain metastasis-free survival was worse for adenocarcinoma (hazard ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 2.2-7.5, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

There is a difference in relapse patterns between NSCLC histological subtypes, indicating that these are distinct entities. This may have implications for follow-up policy and strategies to improve disease control.

Initial results from the New Horizons exploration of 2014 MU69, a small Kuiper Belt object

The Kuiper Belt is a distant region of the outer Solar System. On 1 January 2019, the New Horizons spacecraft flew close to (486958) 2014 MU₆₉, a cold classical Kuiper Belt object approximately 30 kilometers in diameter. Such objects have never been substantially heated by the Sun and are therefore well preserved since their formation. We describe initial results from these encounter observations. MU₆₉ is a bilobed contact binary with a flattened shape, discrete geological units, and noticeable albedo heterogeneity. However, there is little surface color or compositional heterogeneity. No evidence for satellites, rings or other dust structures, a gas coma, or solar wind interactions was detected. MU₆₉'s origin appears consistent with pebble cloud collapse followed by a low-velocity merger of its two lobes.