Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Determination of Ochratoxin A in Currants, Raisins, Sultanas, Mixed Dried Fruit, and Dried Figs by Immunoaffinity Column Cleanup with Liquid Chromatography: Interlaboratory Study

An interlaboratory study was performed on behalf of the Food Standards Agency to evaluate the effectiveness of an affinity column cleanup liquid chromatographic (LC) method for the determination of ochratoxin A in a variety of dried fruit at European regulatory limits. To ensure homogeneity before analysis, laboratory samples are normally slurried with water in the ratio of 5 parts fruit to 4 parts water, and test materials in this form were used in the study. The test portion was extracted with acidified methanol. The extract was filtered, diluted with phosphate-buffered saline, and applied to an affinity column. The column was washed and ochratoxin A was eluted with methanol. Ochratoxin A was quantified by reversed-phase LC. The use of post-column pH shift to enhance the fluorescence of ochratoxin A by the addition of 1.1M ammonia solution to the column eluant is optional. Determination was by fluorescence. Currants, sultanas, raisins, figs, and mixed fruit (comprising dried pineapple, papaya, sultanas, prunes, dates, and banana chips), both naturally contaminated and blank (very low level), were sent to 24 collaborators in 7 European countries. Participants were asked to spike test portions of all test samples at a level equivalent to 5 ng/g ochra toxin A. Average recoveries ranged from 69 to 74%. Based on results for 5 naturally contaminated test samples (blind duplicates) the relative standard deviation for repeatability (RSDr) ranged from 4.9 to 8.7%, and the relative standard deviation for reproducibility (RSDR)rangedfrom14to28%. The method showed acceptable within-and be-tween-laboratory precision for all 5 matrixes, as evidenced by HORRAT values <1.3.

28Impact of non-invasive rapid cardiac magnetic resonance for the assessment of cardiomyopathies in developing countries

Background

Cardiovascular mortality is higher in developing countries. Part of that is suboptimal testing. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is the gold standard for measuring structure, function of the heart and adds incremental value by imaging scarring and to assess iron level. Despite the existence of MRI units, CMR is identified as a complex test, with poor training and availability in developing countries.

Purpose

To assess the potential impact of a faster CMR protocol at a multicentre level in developing countries; implementing it with an education program, for the assessment cardiomyopathies.

Methods

An international partnership. A rapid CMR protocol for the evaluation of cardiac volumes, function and tissue characterization (Cardiac Iron T2* and LGE for scar) Figure 1a. We deployed the protocol as a multicentre study: Argentina, Peru, India and South Africa accompanied by a program of education. Pre-scan clinical information, scanning data: complications, image quality and post-scan follow-up of participants for the assessment on impact, between 3 to 24 months.

Results

510 scans (4 countries, 6 cities, 12 centres) were performed with the rapid CMR protocol. Contrast studies in 378 (74%). There were no scan-related complications. Quality of the studies was maintained in a high level as an average of 89%. 97% of studies responded referral's question. All patients with contrast CMR scan have had at least one 2D echocardiogram before CMR. Average scan duration was 21±6 mins for contrast studies and 12±3 for non-contrast T2* protocol. The most common underlying diagnoses were non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy in 73% of participants (including cardiac iron level assessment in 26%, HCM in 17%, DCM in 15%), 27% for ischaemic cardiomyopathy and 15% for other pathologies. 4 of the 12 participant centres started to incorporate CMR for the first time. Findings impacted management in 60% of patients, including new diagnosis in 21% of participants. See table 1, figure 1b. For just cardiac iron assessment: 1/3 of participants had iron deposited in the heart with 14% of patients in severe levels.

Conclusions

CMR can be delivered faster and easier. When this abbreviated protocol is enabled with education, it can be implemented in developing countries with existing technology. This protocol shows high quality exam, with an important impact on patient's management.

Characteristics and impact on management Contrast studies Non-contrast studies All patients (%) 378 (74) 132 (36) Age, mean (range) years 54 (16–93) 24 (13–41) Male (%) 151 (39) 64 (48) Pre-echocardiography exam (%) 370 (98) 42 (32) Scanning duration mean (SD) 21 (6) 12 (3) Good quality exam (%) 329 (87) 120 (91) Impact on management Total All patients (%) 510 (100) Completely new diagnosis (%) 105 (21) Change/Addition of Medication (%) 128 (25) Intervention/ Surgery (%) 31 (6) Invasive angiography/biopsy (%) 25 (5) Hospital discharge/admission (%) 15 (3) TOTAL 306 (60%) SD: Standard Deviation.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Global Engagement UCL, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office and The Peruvian Scientific, Technological Development and Technological Innovation (FONDECYT)

Search for Subsolar Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's Second Observing Run

We present a search for subsolar mass ultracompact objects in data obtained during Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In contrast to a previous search of Advanced LIGO data from the first observing run, this search includes the effects of component spin on the gravitational waveform. We identify no viable gravitational-wave candidates consistent with subsolar mass ultracompact binaries with at least one component between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙}. We use the null result to constrain the binary merger rate of (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 3.7×10^{5}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1} and the binary merger rate of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 5.2×10^{3}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}. Subsolar mass ultracompact objects are not expected to form via known stellar evolution channels, though it has been suggested that primordial density fluctuations or particle dark matter with cooling mechanisms and/or nuclear interactions could form black holes with subsolar masses. Assuming a particular primordial black hole (PBH) formation model, we constrain a population of merging 0.2  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 16% of the dark matter density and a population of merging 1.0  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 2% of the dark matter density. We discuss how constraints on the merger rate and dark matter fraction may be extended to arbitrary black hole population models that predict subsolar mass binaries.

Ex vivo culture of adult CD34+ stem cells using functional highly porous polymer scaffolds to establish biomimicry of the bone marrow niche

Haematopoiesis, the process of blood production, occurs from a tiny contingent of haematopoietic stem cells (HSC) in highly specialised three-dimensional niches located within the bone marrow. When haematopoiesis is replicated using in vitro two-dimensional culture, HSCs rapidly differentiate, limiting self-renewal. Emulsion-templated highly porous polyHIPE foam scaffolds were chosen to mimic the honeycomb architecture of human bone. The unmodified polyHIPE material supports haematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) culture, with successful culture of erythroid progenitors and neutrophils within the scaffolds. Using erythroid culture methodology, the CD34⁺ population was maintained for 28 days with continual release of erythroid progenitors. These cells are shown to spontaneously repopulate the scaffolds, and the accumulated egress can be expanded and grown at large scale to reticulocytes. We next show that the polyHIPE scaffolds can be successfully functionalised using activated BM(PEG)₂ (1,8-bismaleimido-diethyleneglycol) and then a Jagged-1 peptide attached in an attempt to facilitate notch signalling. Although Jagged-1 peptide had no detectable effect, the BM(PEG)₂ alone significantly increased cell egress when compared to controls, without depleting the scaffold population. This work highlights polyHIPE as a novel functionalisable material for mimicking the bone marrow, and also that PEG can influence HSPC behaviour within scaffolds.

Azimuthal separation in nearly back-to-back jet topologies in inclusive 2- and 3-jet events in pp collisions at s = 13 Te

A measurement for inclusive 2- and 3-jet events of the azimuthal correlation between the two jets with the largest transverse momenta, Δ ϕ 12 , is presented. The measurement considers events where the two leading jets are nearly collinear ("back-to-back") in the transverse plane and is performed for several ranges of the leading jet transverse momentum. Proton-proton collision data collected with the CMS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 Te and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb - 1 are used. Predictions based on calculations using matrix elements at leading-order and next-to-leading-order accuracy in perturbative quantum chromodynamics supplemented with leading-log parton showers and hadronization are generally in agreement with the measurements. Discrepancies between the measurement and theoretical predictions are as large as 15%, mainly in the region177 ∘ < Δ ϕ 12 < 180 ∘ . The 2- and 3-jet measurements are not simultaneously described by any of models.

Measuring the turbulence profile in the lower atmospheric boundary layer

Optical turbulence can have a severe effect on the propagation of laser beams through the atmosphere. In free space optics and directed energy applications, these laser beams quite often propagate along a slant or vertical path. In these cases, the refractive index structure function parameter cannot be assumed constant, since it varies with height. How it varies with height, especially in the first few meters above the ground, is not well behaved. Turbulence height profiles have been measured since the 1970s, mainly for astronomical observations. These profiles are usually measured for the atmospheric boundary layer (the layer of air from the ground up to approx. 1 km during day and 100 m during night) and some kilometers above it. We have measured the temperature fluctuations in the first few meters above ground level using a system containing eight resistance thermometer devices, mounted in a row at different spacings. Measurements were made flying this system under a tethered balloon or mounted on a telescoping mast. The temperature structure function parameter, CT2, can be estimated from the temperature fluctuations measured by the 28 different probe pairs and the unique distances between the two probes. Finally, Cn2 is estimated from this temperature structure function parameter and compared to values predicted by a turbulence profile model.

Analysis of indoor particles and gases and their evolution with natural ventilation

The air composition and reactivity from outdoor and indoor mixing field campaign was conducted to investigate the impacts of natural ventilation (ie, window opening and closing) on indoor air quality. In this study, a thermal desorption aerosol gas chromatograph (TAG) obtained measurements of indoor particle- and gas-phase semi- and intermediately volatile organic compounds both inside and outside a single-family test home. Together with measurements from a suite of instruments, we use TAG data to evaluate changes in indoor particles and gases at three natural ventilation periods. Positive matrix factorization was performed on TAG and adsorbent tube data to explore five distinct chemical and physical processes occurring in the indoor environment. Outdoor-to-indoor transport is observed for sulfate, isoprene epoxydiols, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy alkanes. Dilution of indoor species is observed for volatile, non-reactive species including methylcyclohexane and decamethylcyclopentasiloxane. Window opening drives enhanced emissions of semi- and intermediately volatile species including TXIB, DEET, diethyl phthalate, and carvone from indoor surfaces. Formation via enhanced oxidation was observed for nonanal and 2-decanone when outdoor oxidants entered the home. Finally, oxidative depletion of gas-phase terpenes (eg, limonene and α-pinene) was anticipated but not observed due to limited measurement resolution and dynamically changing conditions.

Measurement of exclusive ρ 770 0 photoproduction in ultraperipheral pPb collisions at s NN = 5.02 Te

Exclusiveρ 770 0 photoproduction is measured for the first time in ultraperipheral pPb collisions ats NN = 5.02 Te with the CMS detector. The cross section σ ( γ p → ρ 770 0 p ) is 11.0 ± 1.4 (stat) ± 1.0 (syst) μ b at ⟨ W γ p ⟩ = 92.6 Ge for photon-proton centre-of-mass energies W γ p between 29 and 213 Ge . The differential cross section d σ / d | t | is measured in the interval0.025 < | t | < 1 Ge 2 as a function of W γ p , where t is the squared four-momentum transfer at the proton vertex. The results are compared with previous measurements and theoretical predictions. The measured cross section σ ( γ p → ρ 770 0 p ) has a power-law dependence on the photon-proton centre-of-mass, consistent with electron-proton collision measurements performed at HERA. The W γ p dependence of the exponential slope of the differential cross section d σ / d | t | is also measured.

Studies of Beauty Suppression via Nonprompt D^{0} Mesons in Pb-Pb Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The transverse momentum spectra of D^{0} mesons from b hadron decays are measured at midrapidity (|y|<1) in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center of mass energy of 5.02 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The D^{0} mesons from b hadron decays are distinguished from prompt D^{0} mesons by their decay topologies. In Pb-Pb collisions, the B→D^{0} yield is found to be suppressed in the measured p_{T} range from 2 to 100  GeV/c as compared to pp collisions. The suppression is weaker than that of prompt D^{0} mesons and charged hadrons for p_{T} around 10  GeV/c. While theoretical calculations incorporating partonic energy loss in the quark-gluon plasma can successfully describe the measured B→D^{0} suppression at higher p_{T}, the data show an indication of larger suppression than the model predictions in the range of 2<p_{T}<5  GeV/c.

Tests of General Relativity with GW170817

The recent discovery by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo of a gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral has enabled tests of general relativity (GR) with this new type of source. This source, for the first time, permits tests of strong-field dynamics of compact binaries in the presence of matter. In this Letter, we place constraints on the dipole radiation and possible deviations from GR in the post-Newtonian coefficients that govern the inspiral regime. Bounds on modified dispersion of gravitational waves are obtained; in combination with information from the observed electromagnetic counterpart we can also constrain effects due to large extra dimensions. Finally, the polarization content of the gravitational wave signal is studied. The results of all tests performed here show good agreement with GR.

Search for a heavy pseudoscalar boson decaying to a Z and a Higgs boson at s = 13 Te

A search is presented for a heavy pseudoscalar boson A decaying to a Z  boson and a Higgs boson with mass of 125GeV . In the final state considered, the Higgs boson decays to a bottom quark and antiquark, and the Z  boson decays either into a pair of electrons, muons, or neutrinos. The analysis is performed using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9fb - 1 collected in 2016 by the CMS experiment at the LHC from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13Te . The data are found to be consistent with the background expectations. Exclusion limits are set in the context of two-Higgs-doublet models in the A boson mass range between 225 and 1000GeV .

A systematic review of database validation studies among fertility populations

STUDY QUESTION

Are routinely collected data from fertility populations adequately validated?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Of the 19 studies included, only one validated a national fertility registry and none reported their results in accordance with recommended reporting guidelines for validation studies.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Routinely collected data, including administrative databases and registries, are excellent sources of data, particularly for reporting, quality assurance, and research. However, these data are subject to misclassification bias due to misdiagnosis or errors in data entry and therefore need to be validated prior to using for clinical or research purposes.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

We conducted a systematic review by searching Medline, Embase, and CINAHL from inception to 6 October 2016 to identify validation studies of databases that contain routinely collected data in an ART setting. Webpages of international ART centers were also searched.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

We included studies that compared at least two data sources to validate ART population data. Key words and MeSH terms were adapted from previous systematic reviews investigating routinely collected data (e.g. administrative databases and registries), measures of validity (including sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value), and ART (including infertility, IVF, advanced reproductive age, and diminished ovarian reserve). Only full-text studies in English were considered. Results were synthesized qualitatively. The electronic search yielded 1074 citations, of which 19 met the inclusion criteria.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Two studies validated a fertility database using medical records; seven studies used an IVF registry to validate vital records or maternal questionnaires, and two studies failed to adequately describe their reference standard. Four studies investigated the validity of mode of conception from birth registries; two studies validated diagnoses or treatments in a fertility database; four studies validated a linkage algorithm between a fertility registry and another administrative database; one study created an algorithm in a single database to identify a patient population. Sensitivity was the most commonly reported measure of validity (12 studies), followed by specificity (9 studies). Only three studies reported four or more measures of validation, and five studies presented CIs for their estimates. The prevalence of the variable in the target population (pre-test prevalence) was reported in seven studies; however, only four of the studies had prevalence estimates from the study population (post-test prevalence) within a 2% range of the pre-test estimate. The post-test estimate was largely discrepant from the pre-test value in two studies.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

The search strategy was limited to the studies and reports published in English, which may not capture validation studies from countries that do not speak English. Furthermore, only three specific fertility-based diagnostic variables (advanced reproductive age, diminished ovarian reserve, and chorionicity) were searched in Medline, Embase, and CINAHL. Consequently, published studies with other diagnoses or conditions relevant to infertility may not have been captured in our review.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

There is a paucity of literature on validation of routinely collected data from a fertility population. Furthermore, the prevalence of the markers that have been validated are not being presented, which can lead to biased estimates. Stakeholders rely on these data for monitoring outcomes of treatments and adverse events; therefore, it is essential to ascertain the accuracy of these databases and make the reports publicly available.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This study was supported by Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (FDN-148438). There are no competing interests for any of the authors.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews ID: CRD42016048466.

Combined measurements of Higgs boson couplings in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 Te

Combined measurements of the production and decay rates of the Higgs boson, as well as its couplings to vector bosons and fermions, are presented. The analysis uses the LHC proton-proton collision data set recorded with the CMS detector in 2016 ats = 13 Te , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9fb - 1 . The combination is based on analyses targeting the five main Higgs boson production mechanisms (gluon fusion, vector boson fusion, and associated production with a W or Z boson, or a top quark-antiquark pair) and the following decay modes: H → γ γ , Z Z , W W , τ τ , b b , and μ μ . Searches for invisible Higgs boson decays are also considered. The best-fit ratio of the signal yield to the standard model expectation is measured to be μ = 1.17 ± 0.10 , assuming a Higgs boson mass of 125.09 Ge . Additional results are given for various assumptions on the scaling behavior of the production and decay modes, including generic parametrizations based on ratios of cross sections and branching fractions or couplings. The results are compatible with the standard model predictions in all parametrizations considered. In addition, constraints are placed on various two Higgs doublet models.

Jet Shapes of Isolated Photon-Tagged Jets in Pb-Pb and pp Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The modification of jet shapes in Pb-Pb collisions, relative to those in pp collisions, is studied for jets associated with an isolated photon. The data were collected with the CMS detector at the LHC at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV. Jet shapes are constructed from charged particles with track transverse momenta (p_{T}) above 1  GeV/c in annuli around the axes of jets with p_{T}^{jet}>30  GeV/c associated with an isolated photon with p_{T}^{γ}>60  GeV/c. The jet shape distributions are consistent between peripheral Pb-Pb and pp collisions, but are modified for more central Pb-Pb collisions. In these central Pb-Pb events, a larger fraction of the jet momentum is observed at larger distances from the jet axis compared to pp, reflecting the interaction between the partonic medium created in heavy ion collisions and the traversing partons.