Cancer survival in England and Wales at the end of the 20th century

Survival has risen steadily since the 1970s for most cancers in adults in England and Wales, but persistent inequalities exist between those living in affluent and deprived areas. These differences are not seen for children. For many of the common adult cancers, these inequalities in survival (the 'deprivation gap') became more marked in the 1990s. This volume presents extended analyses of survival for adults diagnosed during the 14 years 1986-1999 and followed up to 2001, including trends in overall survival in England and Wales and trends in the deprivation gap in survival. The analyses include individual tumour data for 2.2 million cancer patients. This article outlines the structure of the supplement - an article for each of the 20 most common cancers in adults, followed by an expert commentary from one of the leading UK clinicians specialising in malignancies of that organ or system. The available data, quality control and methods of analysis are described here, rather than repeated in each of the 20 articles. We open the discussion between clinicians and epidemiologists on how to interpret the observed trends and inequalities in cancer survival, and we highlight some of the most important contrasts in these very different points of view. Survival improved substantially for adult cancer patients in England and Wales up to the end of the 20th century. Although socioeconomic inequalities in survival are remarkably persistent, the overall patterns suggest that these inequalities are largely avoidable.

Preparation of cell cultures and vaccinia virus stocks

This unit describes the maintenance of cell lines used with vaccinia virus, both in monolayer cultures and in suspension. The suspended cell culture is then used in the preparation of vaccinia virus stocks. The preparation of chick embryo fibroblasts (CEF) is also presented for use in the production of the highly attenuated and host range-restricted modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain of vaccinia virus. Additionally, support protocols are presented for the titration of standard and MVA vaccinia virus stocks.

Reduced intensity conditioning and allogeneic stem cell transplantation in childhood malignant and nonmalignant diseases

Allogeneic hematopoietic SCT is well established as a potentially curative therapy for children and adults with both malignant and nonmalignant diseases. However, myeloablative SCT is associated with significant short- and long-term complications. The goals of a reduced intensity-conditioning (RIC) regimen are to prevent graft rejection and establish stable donor-derived hematopoiesis at a level sufficient for cure of the underlying disease and, in patients with hematologic malignancy, to provide a GVL effect, while decreasing the short- and long-term complications associated with myeloablative conditioning therapy. RIC regimens have enabled SCT to be performed in children with preexisting comorbidities that preclude conventional conditioning. RIC-SCT has been most extensively studied in patients with nonmalignant disorders and for some of these, including primary immunodeficiencies and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, sufficient data now exist to support its routine use even in patients without comorbidity. Less data exist on RIC-SCT for children with hematologic malignancies and at present this should be restricted to children who are not candidates for, or have relapsed after, myeloablative SCT. Here we review available data on the use of RIC-SCT in pediatric patients, highlighting important clinical lessons and areas that require further study.

Predicted trends in long-term breast cancer survival in England and Wales

Trends in long-term relative survival from breast cancer are examined for women diagnosed in England and Wales up to 2001, using both period and hybrid approaches. Large improvements in long-term survival are predicted. Women with breast cancer still experience persistent excess mortality up to at least 20 years after diagnosis.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy for Gaucher's disease: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this review is to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in the treatment of symptomatic Gaucher's disease.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases were searched from their inception to August 2003; and updated from January 2003 to July/August 2004.

REVIEW METHODS

Databases were searched for studies that met the criteria and selected data were extracted and evaluated. Studies were assessed for their relevance to the UK context and the review objective. The bibliographic databases were also searched to identify existing cost studies, economic evaluations and models. A Markov decision model was constructed based on patients moving between states defined by the modified Severity Score Index (SSI). Most of the parameters were derived from the published literature. ERT was assumed to restore patients to full health in the base case.

RESULTS

Sixty-three studies were included, all suggestive of benefit with ERT. However, the way in which the effects translate into patient well-being and survival or the need for services and resources has not been reliably estimated. Quality of life improvements with ERT have been reported. Nonetheless, studies based on the Short Form 36 (SF-36) indicate that patients treated with ERT continue to have reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) compared with the general population. No study attached utility values to quality of life measures for ERT-treated patients. Thirty-one studies relevant to the natural history of the disease were found. Sixteen looked at multiple clinical characteristics of a cohort of patients with type I Gaucher's disease. There was considerable within-study and between-study heterogeneity, but all showed that Gaucher's disease was a progressive condition. Some suggested that the disease may become more indolent in adulthood; however, studies were discrepant on this point. Most disease is diagnosed in adulthood, although about one-quarter presented in childhood, these patients having the most severe symptoms and greatest rate of progression. Modelling of natural history was undertaken using the five papers that reported the SSI for each patient, along with patient-level data on age, age at diagnosis, splenectomy status and genotype, to address the question of whether disease stabilises in adulthood and the degree of correlation between phenotype and genotype. Analysis of the available data suggested that disease progression is likely to slow markedly in adulthood and that genotype is a useful predictor of clinical expression of the disease. Five studies looked at quality of life. Data on this topic were also obtained from the registries. The evidence suggests that the vast majority of the clinical characteristics of type I Gaucher's disease have little impact on subjective HRQoL and that therefore for the majority of people with type I Gaucher's disease this may not be a severe condition. Bone and skeletal symptoms contribute most to the morbidity of the disease and can lead to severe pain and immobility. The mean cost per patient treated was approximately pounds sterling 86,000 per annum in England and Wales. The cost per patient varied considerably by dose. Four existing economic evaluations were found, all of which calculated a very high cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Using the Markov decision model, ERT was assumed to restore patients to full health in the base case. The estimated incremental cost per QALY [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)] in the base case ranged from pounds sterling 380,000 to pounds sterling 476,000 per QALY, depending on genotype. Univariate sensitivity analyses examined ERT not restoring full health, more severe disease progression in the untreated cohort, and only treating the most severely affected patients. These produced ICERs of approximately pounds sterling 1.4 million, pounds sterling 296,000 and pounds sterling 275,000 per QALY, respectively. The base-case unit cost of the drug is pounds sterling 2.975. The unit cost would have had to be reduced ten-fold, to pounds sterling 0.30, to obtain an ICER of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY. At a unit cost of pounds sterling 1 the ICER would be pounds sterling 120,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ERT for treating the 'average' Gaucher's disease patient exceeds the normal upper threshold for cost-effectiveness seen in NHS policy decisions by over ten-fold, some argue that since orphan drug legislation encouraged the manufacture of Cerezyme, and Gaucher's disease can be defined as an orphan disease, the NHS has little option but to provide it, despite its great expense. More information is required before the generalisability of the findings can be determined. Although data from the UK have been used wherever possible, these were very thin indeed. Nonetheless, even large errors in estimates of the distribution of genotype, genotype--phenotype associations, effectiveness and numbers of patients will not reduce the ICER to anywhere near the upper level of treatments usually considered cost-effective. Further research could help to clarify the many uncertainties that exist. However, although doing so will be of clinical interest, it is questionable whether, within the current pricing environment, such research would have any substantive impact on policy decisions. It is highly improbable that, whatever the findings of such research, the ICER could be brought down by the orders of magnitude required to make ERT an efficient use of health service resources. (The possible exception to this would be investigating the most efficient alternative treatment strategies for using ERT in a paediatric population only.) Moreover, if under equity considerations for orphan diseases the NHS feels it is important to provide this drug, regardless of its cost-effectiveness, then refining the precision of the ICER estimate also becomes superfluous.

Bone marrow B-lineage cells in patients with rheumatoid arthritis following rituximab therapy

OBJECTIVE

To assess the presence and phenotype of B-lineage cells in the bone marrow (BM) of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients after rituximab therapy.

METHODS

Six patients were studied. BM aspirates were collected 3 months after the treatment and analysed using the four-colour flow cytometry.

RESULTS

CD19+ (B-lineage) cells in BM samples varied from 0.1 to 3.25% in the lymphoid gate. CD34+ cells varied from 1.23 to 4.86%. The proportion of CD34+ cells committed to the B-lineage varied between 0 and 42.19%. Pro-B-cells were undetectable in one case. The majority of B-cell precursors were pro-B-cells in Patients 5 and 6 (50 and 62% of CD19+ cells, respectively), pre-B-cells in Patients 3 and 4 (64 and 70%) and immature B-cells in Patient 1 (44%). Detectable CD20 expression on CD19+ cells was either low or absent. Plasma cells varied from 0.01 to 0.36% of the total nucleated cells. There was a trend towards longer duration of clinical response in patients with evidence of more complete depletion in BM.

CONCLUSION

In this small cohort of RA patients treated with rituximab, differences in proportion and phenotype of CD19+ BM cells were detected. These differences suggest variation in the degree of depletion achieved and correlate with time to relapse. Although pro-B-cells are not targeted directly by rituximab as they do not express CD20, the levels were unexpectedly low.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the initial medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome: systematic review and decision-analytical modelling

OBJECTIVES

To identify and prioritise key areas of clinical uncertainty regarding the medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in current UK practice.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases. Consultations with clinical advisors. Postal survey of cardiologists.

REVIEW METHODS

Potential areas of important uncertainty were identified and 'decision problems' prioritised. A systematic literature review was carried out using standard methods. The constructed decision model consisted of a short-term phase that applied the results of the systematic review and a long-term phase that included relevant information from a UK observational study to extrapolate estimated costs and effects. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the dependence of the results on baseline parameters, using alternative data sources. Expected value of information analysis was undertaken to estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision problem. This provided an upper bound on the monetary value associated with additional research in the area.

RESULTS

Seven current areas of clinical uncertainty (decision problems) in the drug treatment of unstable angina patients were identified. The agents concerned were clopidogrel, low molecular weight heparin, hirudin and intravenous glycoprotein antagonists (GPAs). Twelve published clinical guidelines for unstable angina or non-ST elevation ACS were identified, but few contained recommendations about the specified decision problems. The postal survey of clinicians showed that the greatest disagreement existed for the use of small molecule GPAs, and the greatest uncertainty existed for decisions relating to the use of abciximab (a large molecule GPA). Overall, decision problems concerning the GPA class of drugs were considered to be the highest priority for further study. Selected papers describing the clinical efficacy of treatment were divided into three groups, each representing an alternative strategy. The strategy involving the use of GPAs as part of the initial medical management of all non-ST elevation ACS was the optimal choice, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 5738 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with no use of GPAs. Stochastic analysis showed that if the health service is willing to pay 10,000 pounds per additional QALY, the probability of this strategy being cost-effective was around 82%, increasing to 95% at a threshold of 50,000 pounds per QALY. A sensitivity analysis including an additional strategy of using GPAs as part of initial medical management only in patients at particular high risk (as defined by age, ST depression or diabetes) showed that this additional strategy was yet more cost-effective, with an ICER of 3996 pounds per QALY compared with no treatment with GPA. Value of information analysis suggested that there was considerable merit in additional research to reduce the level of uncertainty in the optimal decision. At a threshold of 10,000 pounds per QALY, the maximum potential value of such research in the base case was calculated as 12.7 million pounds per annum for the UK as a whole. Taking account of the greater uncertainty in the sensitivity analyses including clopidogrel, this figure was increased to approximately 50 million pounds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests the use of GPAs in all non-ST elevation ACS patients as part of their initial medical management. Sensitivity analysis showed that virtually all of the benefit could be realised by treating only high-risk patients. Further clarification of the optimum role of GPAs in the UK NHS depends on the availability of further high-quality observational and trial data. Value of information analysis derived from the model suggests that a relatively large investment in such research may be worthwhile. Further research should focus on the identification of the characteristics of patients who benefit most from GPAs as part of medical management, the comparison of GPAs with clopidogrel as an adjunct to standard care, follow-up cohort studies of the costs and outcomes of high-risk non-ST elevation ACS over several years, and exploring how clinicians' decisions combine a normative evidence-based decision model with their own personal behavioural perspective.

Integrative neuroscience: the role of a standardized database

Most brain related databases bring together specialized information, with a growing number that include neuroimaging measures. This article outlines the potential use and insights from the first entirely standardized and centralized database, which integrates information from neuroimaging measures (EEG, event related potential (ERP), structural/functional MRI), arousal (skin conductance responses (SCR)s, heart rate, respiration), neuropsychological and personality tests, genomics and demographics: The Brain Resource International Database. It comprises data from over 2000 "normative" subjects and a growing number of patients with neurological and psychiatric illnesses, acquired from over 50 laboratories (in the U.S.A, United Kingdom, Holland, South Africa, Israel and Australia), all with identical equipment and experimental procedures. Three primary goals of this database are to quantify individual differences in normative brain function, to compare an individual's performance to their database peers, and to provide a robust normative framework for clinical assessment and treatment prediction. We present three example demonstrations in relation to these goals. First, we show how consistent age differences may be quantified when large subject numbers are available, using EEG and ERP data from nearly 2000 stringently screened. normative subjects. Second, the use of a normalization technique provides a means to compare clinical subjects (50 ADHD subjects in this study) to the normative database with the effects of age and gender taken into account. Third, we show how a profile of EEG/ERP and autonomic measures potentially provides a means to predict treatment response in ADHD subjects. The example data consists of EEG under eyes open and eyes closed and ERP data for auditory oddball, working memory and Go-NoGo paradigms. Autonomic measures of skin conductance (tonic skin conductance level, SCL, and phasic skin conductance responses, SCRs) were acquired simultaneously with central EEG/ERP measures. The findings show that the power of large samples, tested using standardized protocols, allows for the quantification of individual differences that can subsequently be used to control such variation and to enhance the sensitivity and specificity of comparisons between normative and clinical groups. In terms of broader significance, the combination of size and multidimensional measures tapping the brain's core cognitive competencies, may provide a normative and evidence-based framework for individually-based assessments in "Personalized Medicine."

Cassini Imaging Science: Initial Results on Phoebe and Iapetus

The Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem acquired high-resolution imaging data on the outer Saturnian moon, Phoebe, during Cassini's close flyby on 11 June 2004 and on Iapetus during a flyby on 31 December 2004. Phoebe has a heavily cratered and ancient surface, shows evidence of ice near the surface, has distinct layering of different materials, and has a mean density that is indicative of an ice-rock mixture. Iapetus's dark leading side (Cassini Regio) is ancient, heavily cratered terrain bisected by an equatorial ridge system that reaches 20 kilometers relief. Local albedo variations within and bordering Cassini Regio suggest mass wasting of ballistically deposited material, the origin of which remains unknown.

Cassini Imaging Science: Initial Results on Saturn's Atmosphere

The Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) began observing Saturn in early February 2004. From analysis of cloud motions through early October 2004, we report vertical wind shear in Saturn's equatorial jet and a maximum wind speed of approximately 375 meters per second, a value that differs from both Hubble Space Telescope and Voyager values. We also report a particularly active narrow southern mid-latitude region in which dark ovals are observed both to merge with each other and to arise from the eruptions of large, bright storms. Bright storm eruptions are correlated with Saturn's electrostatic discharges, which are thought to originate from lightning.

Cassini Imaging Science: Initial Results on Saturn's Rings and Small Satellites

Images acquired of Saturn's rings and small moons by the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) during the first 9 months of Cassini operations at Saturn have produced many new findings. These include new saturnian moons; refined orbits of new and previously known moons; narrow diffuse rings in the F-ring region and embedded in gaps within the main rings; exceptionally fine-scale ring structure in moderate- to high-optical depth regions; new estimates for the masses of ring-region moons, as well as ring particle properties in the Cassini division, derived from the analysis of linear density waves; ring particle albedos in select ring regions; and never-before-seen phenomena within the rings.

Cellulitis or charcot neuropathy in diabetes?

Cellulitis of the lower limb is a common presentation in patients with diabetes. We report a case illustrating how Charcot neuropathy can be overlooked because of its resemblance to cellulitis.

Trends and socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in England and Wales up to 2001

We examined national trends and socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in England and Wales during the 1990s, using population-based data on 2.2 million patients who were diagnosed with one of the 20 most common cancers between 1986 and 1999 and followed up to 2001. Patients were assigned to one of five deprivation categories (from 'affluent' to 'deprived') using characteristics of their electoral ward of residence at diagnosis. We estimated relative survival up to 5 years after diagnosis, adjusting separately in each deprivation category for background mortality by age, sex and calendar period. We estimated trends in survival and in the difference in survival between deprivation categories ('deprivation gap') over the periods 1986-90, 1991-95 and 1996-99. We used period analysis to examine likely survival rates in the near future. Survival improved for most cancers in both sexes during the 1990s, and appears likely to continue improving for most cancers in the near future. The deprivation gap in survival between rich and poor was wider for patients diagnosed in the late 1990s than in the late 1980s. Increases in cancer survival in England and Wales during the 1990s are shown to be significantly associated with a widening deprivation gap in survival.

Systematic review and economic decision modelling for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and B

OBJECTIVES

To establish the clinical and cost-effectiveness of amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir compared to standard care for the treatment and prevention of influenza.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases. Reference lists of identified articles and key publications. Relevant trials.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the randomised evidence was undertaken to investigate the effectiveness of oseltamivir and zanamivir compared to standard care for treatment and prophylaxis use for influenza A and B. An additional systematic review of the effectiveness of amantadine for treatment and prophylaxis use for influenza A in children and the elderly was also undertaken. Economic decision models were constructed to examine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of the alternative strategies for treating and preventing influenza A and/or B. This was informed by the systematic reviews outlined above and additional sources of information where required.

RESULTS

The systematic review of the treatment of influenza found that oseltamivir reduced the median duration of symptoms in the influenza positive group by 1.38 days for the otherwise healthy adult population, 0.5 day for the high-risk population, and 1.5 days for the children population. This compared to 1.26 days, 1.99 days, and 1.3 for the similar groups for inhaled zanamivir. The systematic review of the prevention of influenza found that the relative risk reduction for oseltamivir was between approximately 75 and 90% and approximately 70 and 90% for inhaled zanamivir depending on the strategy adopted and the population under consideration. For the economic model a base case was constructed that focussed primarily on the health benefits generated by shortening the period of influenza illness. This base case found that, compared to standard care, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year ranged from pound 6190 to pound 31,529 for healthy adults, from pound 4535 to pound 22,502 for the 'high-risk' group, from pound 6117 to pound 30,825 for children, and from pound 5057 to pound 21,781 for the residential care elderly population. The base case model included valuations of the health effects of pneumonia (and otitis media in the children's model) based on observed rates in the trials. However it does not include the cost of hospitalisations as only very limited data was available for the effects of antivirals on hospitalisation rates. As for mortality rates, deaths from influenza were rare in trials of neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs). Therefore, suitable data on mortality were not available from these sources. As avoided hospitalisation costs and avoided mortality are potentially important we also carried out sensitivity analysis that involved extrapolating the observed reductions in pneumonias in the NI trials to hospitalisations and deaths. In all four models the cost-effectiveness of NIs is substantially improved by this extrapolation. For prophylaxis, antiviral drugs were compared with vaccination as preventative strategies. In all cases the cost-effectiveness ratios for vaccination were either low or cost-saving. In the base case the cost-effectiveness of antivirals was relatively unfavourable, there were scenarios relating to the elderly residential care model where antivirals as an additional strategy could be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness varies markedly between the intervention strategies and target populations. The estimate of cost effectiveness is also sensitive to variations in certain key parameters of the model, for example the proportion of all influenza-like illnesses that are influenza. The effectiveness literature that was used to inform the economic decision model spans many decades and hence great caution should be exercised when interpreting the results of indirect intervention comparisons from the model. Further randomised trials making direct comparisons would be valuable to verify the model's findings.

Gabapentin for neuropathic pain following spinal cord injury

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of patient data.

OBJECTIVE

To present two years of experience in the use of gabapentin for the alleviation of neuropathic pain in spinal cord injury patients.

SETTING

Supra-regional Spinal Cord Service, Melbourne, Australia.

METHOD

Data were retrieved from the medical records of all spinal cord injury patients prescribed gabapentin for neuropathic pain. Pain was assessed prior to and during treatment at 1, 3 and 6 months with a 10 cm visual analogue scale which ranged from 0 ('no pain') to 10 ('worst pain imaginable'), or by the documentation of a verbal description of pain.

RESULTS

Seventy-six per cent of patients receiving gabapentin reported a reduction in neuropathic pain. In those patients with data at all four measurement points, the mean pretreatment score was 8.86. Following treatment with gabapentin the score dropped to 5.23, 4.59 and 4.13 at 1, 3 and 6 months, respectively. Where only a verbal description of pain was documented, the trend was that the pretreatment report of 'unbearable' was replaced by 'liveable' during treatment.

CONCLUSION

Our experience suggests that gabapentin offers an effective therapeutic alternative for the alleviation of neuropathic pain following spinal cord injury. Controlled clinical trials are now required to confirm these observations.