A longitudinal and comparative analysis of competitive balance in five European football leagues

Purpose

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on competitive balance in the “big five” European football leagues, namely, the English Premier League, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses recognised measures of competitive balance to measure levels of concentration (within-season competitive balance) and dominance (between-season competitive balance) in the selected leagues over 22 seasons between 1995/96 and 2016/17.

Findings

French Ligue 1 emerged as the most balanced league in terms of both concentration and dominance measures. The analysis also points to a statistically significant decline in competitive balance in all leagues apart from Serie A (Italy).

Originality/value

The findings of this study are of concern for the league organisers. Competition intensity is a key component of a sport league, and a league that is dominated by one or a select few clubs is less attractive within the marketplace. This paper presents challenges at the league governance level for the five leagues examined.

Tag retention and mortality of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar gastrically tagged with different sized telemetry transmitters

A batch of 1 sea winter pre-spawning adult Salmo salar from the Bush river in Northern Ireland, U.K., were gastrically tagged with large (13 mm diameter) and small (9 mm diameter) dummy acoustic telemetry tags alongside untagged control fish. Survival differed between control and tagged fish and the estimated probability of survival by the end of the study for control fish with no tag was 0·94, small tags was 0·90 and large tags was 0·72. Tag loss through regurgitation was slightly higher for fish tagged with larger tags than for fish tagged with smaller tags and the estimated probability of tag loss for fish with a small tag was 0·10 and for large tags was 0·14.

Combined use of two supervised learning algorithms to model sea turtle behaviours from tri-axial acceleration data

Accelerometers are becoming ever more important sensors in animal-attached technology, providing data that allow determination of body posture and movement and thereby helping to elucidate behaviour in animals that are difficult to observe. We sought to validate the identification of sea turtle behaviours from accelerometer signals by deploying tags on the carapace of a juvenile loggerhead (Caretta caretta), an adult hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and an adult green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at Aquarium La Rochelle, France. We recorded tri-axial acceleration at 50 Hz for each species for a full day while two fixed cameras recorded their behaviours. We identified behaviours from the acceleration data using two different supervised learning algorithms, Random Forest and Classification And Regression Tree (CART), treating the data from the adult animals as separate from the juvenile data. We achieved a global accuracy of 81.30% for the adult hawksbill and green turtle CART model and 71.63% for the juvenile loggerhead, identifying 10 and 12 different behaviours, respectively. Equivalent figures were 86.96% for the adult hawksbill and green turtle Random Forest model and 79.49% for the juvenile loggerhead, for the same behaviours. The use of Random Forest combined with CART algorithms allowed us to understand the decision rules implicated in behaviour discrimination, and thus remove or group together some 'confused' or under--represented behaviours in order to get the most accurate models. This study is the first to validate accelerometer data to identify turtle behaviours and the approach can now be tested on other captive sea turtle species.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ).

METHOD

We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates.

RESULTS

The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies.

CONCLUSION

The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system.

Jupiter's interior and deep atmosphere: The initial pole-to-pole passes with the Juno spacecraft

On 27 August 2016, the Juno spacecraft acquired science observations of Jupiter, passing less than 5000 kilometers above the equatorial cloud tops. Images of Jupiter's poles show a chaotic scene, unlike Saturn's poles. Microwave sounding reveals weather features at pressures deeper than 100 bars, dominated by an ammonia-rich, narrow low-latitude plume resembling a deeper, wider version of Earth's Hadley cell. Near-infrared mapping reveals the relative humidity within prominent downwelling regions. Juno's measured gravity field differs substantially from the last available estimate and is one order of magnitude more precise. This has implications for the distribution of heavy elements in the interior, including the existence and mass of Jupiter's core. The observed magnetic field exhibits smaller spatial variations than expected, indicative of a rich harmonic content.

A new lipid formulation of low dose ibuprofen shows non-inferiority to high dose standard ibuprofen: the FLARE study (flaring arthralgia relief evaluation in episodic flaring knee pain) - a randomised double-blind study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate short-term efficacy and safety of a novel lipid ibuprofen formulation 1200 mg/day compared with standard ibuprofen 1200 mg/day and 2400 mg/day in episodic knee arthralgia/flaring pain.

DESIGN

Multicentre, randomised, double-blind, 3-arm, non-inferiority trial conducted at 27 primary care centres. Adults with ≥1 knee flare episode within 12 months were recruited within 24 h of new flare with pain severity ≥5 on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Primary outcome was change from baseline in WOMAC pain subscale over 5 days. Main secondary outcome was Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale (GSRS) change from baseline. Other endpoints included assessment of WOMAC total subscale scores and self-reported NRS for pain, subject nominated activity, stiffness and swelling.

RESULTS

462 patients were enrolled (58.9% males; mean age 52.2 years). Treatment allocation comprised 148 lipid 1200 mg, 155 soft-gel 1200 mg, 159 soft-gel 2400 mg. WOMAC pain subscale scores decreased in all groups, with lipid 1200 mg being non-inferior to soft-gel 1200 mg (adjusted mean difference -0.26 [95% confidence interval [CI] -0.69, 0.17]) and to soft-gel 2400 mg (difference 0.19 [95% CI -0.24, 0.62]). No differences were seen in mean GSRS total scores. NRS secondary endpoints suggested greater improvements in the lipid 1200 mg group compared to soft-gel 1200 mg, with similar results to soft-gel 2400 mg. The most frequent drug-related adverse events (AEs) were gastrointestinal (GI) disorders, with statistically fewer events for lipid 1200 mg vs soft-gel 2400 mg (P = 0.01, post-hoc analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

Ibuprofen 1200 mg/day lipid formulation was non-inferior to standard ibuprofen soft-gel capsules 1200 mg and 2400 mg/day in relieving flaring knee pain. NRS endpoints showed lipid 1200 mg was numerically similar to soft-gel 2400 mg.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

EudraCT number: 2014-004254-33.

Prevalence and Seasonal Variation of Incidental MRI Paranasal Inflammatory Changes in an Asymptomatic Irish Population

Inflammatory changes in the paranasal sinuses are a common incidental finding on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the head and neck. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and seasonal variation of inflammatory paranasal sinus changes in an asymptomatic Irish population. Retrospective analysis was performed on 221 patients who underwent brain MRI at the time points of winter and summer. T2-weighted sequences were evaluated for paranasal sinus disease. Nearly half the patients in the study exhibited morphological paranasal sinus changes on imaging suggesting that these could be considered a normal variant. Correlation of imaging findings with clinical symptoms and signs remain crucial to the diagnosis of sinusitis.

Pulmonary exacerbation in adults with bronchiectasis: a consensus definition for clinical research

There is a need for a clear definition of exacerbations used in clinical trials in patients with bronchiectasis. An expert conference was convened to develop a consensus definition of an exacerbation for use in clinical research.

A systematic review of exacerbation definitions used in clinical trials from January 2000 until December 2015 and involving adults with bronchiectasis was conducted. A Delphi process followed by a round-table meeting involving bronchiectasis experts was organised to reach a consensus definition. These experts came from Europe (representing the European Multicentre Bronchiectasis Research Collaboration), North America (representing the US Bronchiectasis Research Registry/COPD Foundation), Australasia and South Africa.

The definition was unanimously approved by the working group as: a person with bronchiectasis with a deterioration in three or more of the following key symptoms for at least 48 h: cough; sputum volume and/or consistency; sputum purulence; breathlessness and/or exercise tolerance; fatigue and/or malaise; haemoptysis AND a clinician determines that a change in bronchiectasis treatment is required.

The working group proposes the use of this consensus-based definition for bronchiectasis exacerbation in future clinical research involving adults with bronchiectasis.