Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons¹. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s². A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased^3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown³. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Pat Gallagher M, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Pugliese A, Sanders-Branca N, Ray Arce LA, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Peterson Eck S, Finney L, Albright Fischer T, Martin A, Jacqueline Muzamhindo C, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Jo Ricci M, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Teresa Muscato M, Viscardi M, Bingley P, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del A, Rio A, Logan H, Collier C, Rishton G, Whalley A, Ali S, Ramtoola T, Quattrin L, Mastrandea A, House M, Ecker C, Huang C, Gougeon J, Ho D, Pacuad D, Dunger J, May C, O’Brien C, Acerini B, Salgin A, Thankamony R, Williams J, Buse G, Fuller M, Duclos J, Tricome H, Brown D, Pittard D, Bowlby A, Blue T, Headley S, Bendre K, Lewis K, Sutphin C, Soloranzo J, Puskaric H, Madison M, Rincon M, Carlucci R, Shridharani B, Rusk E, Tessman D, Huffman H, Abrams B, Biederman M, Jones V, Leathers W, Brickman P, Petrie D, Zimmerman J, Howard L, Miller R, Alemzadeh D, Mihailescu R, Melgozza-Walker N, Abdulla C, Boucher-Berry D, Ize-Ludlow R, Levy C, Swenson, Brousell N, Crimmins D, Edler T, Weis C, Schultz D, Rogers D, Latham C, Mawhorter C, Switzer W, Spencer P, Konstantnopoulus S, Broder J, Klein L, Knight L, Szadek G, Welnick B, Thompson R, Hoffman A, Revell J, Cherko K, Carter E, Gilson J, Haines G, Arthur B, Bowen W, Zipf P, Graves R, Lozano D, Seiple K, Spicer A, Chang J, Fregosi J, Harbinson C, Paulson S, Stalters P, Wright D, Zlock A, Freeth J, Victory H, Maheshwari A, Maheshwari T, Holmstrom J, Bueno R, Arguello J, Ahern L, Noreika V, Watson S, Hourse P, Breyer C, Kissel Y, Nicholson M, Pfeifer S, Almazan J, Bajaj M, Quinn K, Funk J, McCance E, Moreno R, Veintimilla A, Wells J, Cook S, Trunnel J, Henske S, Desai K, Frizelis F, Khan R, Sjoberg K, Allen P, Manning G, Hendry B, Taylor S, Jones W, Strader M, Bencomo T, Bailey L, Bedolla C, Roldan C, Moudiotis B, Vaidya C, Anning S, Bunce S, Estcourt E, Folland E, Gordon C, Harrill J, Ireland J, Piper L, Scaife K, Sutton S, Wilkins M, Costelloe J, Palmer L, Casas C, Miller M, Burgard C, Erickson J, Hallanger-Johnson P, Clark W, Taylor A, Lafferty S, Gillett C, Nolan M, Pathak L, Sondrol T, Hjelle S, Hafner J, Kotrba R, Hendrickson A, Cemeroglu T, Symington M, Daniel Y, Appiagyei-Dankah D, Postellon M, Racine L, Kleis K, Barnes S, Godwin H, McCullough K, Shaheen G, Buck L, Noel M, Warren S, Weber S, Parker I, Gillespie B, Nelson C, Frost J, Amrhein E, Moreland A, Hayes J, Peggram J, Aisenberg M, Riordan J, Zasa E, Cummings K, Scott T, Pinto A, Mokashi K, McAssey E, Helden P, Hammond L, Dinning S, Rahman S, Ray C, Dimicri S, Guppy H, Nielsen C, Vogel C, Ariza L, Morales Y, Chang R, Gabbay L, Ambrocio L, Manley R, Nemery W, Charlton P, Smith L, Kerr B, Steindel-Kopp M, Alamaguer D, Liljenquist G, Browning T, Coughenour M, Sulk E, Tsalikan M, Tansey J, Cabbage N. Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

Combined effects of diabetes and low household income on mortality: a 12-year follow-up study of 505 677 Korean adults

AIM

To examine the effects of diabetes, low income and their combination on mortality in the Korean population.

METHODS

We analysed a total of 505 677 people (53.9% male) aged 40-79 years old from the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening (NHIS-HEALS) cohort. Ten levels of household income were used as indicators of economic status. Diabetes was defined as elevated fasting blood glucose (≥ 6.9 mmol/l) and/or use of glucose-lowering drugs or insulin. Covariates of age, sex, BMI, smoking and Charlson Comorbidity Index were determined at baseline. Outcomes were total and cause-specific mortality over 12 years. Cox's proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality according to the presence of diabetes, household income and their combination.

RESULTS

Lower household income was associated with higher mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and non-cancer non-cardiovascular causes. Excessive mortality due to low incomes was observed in both people with and without diabetes. In men, the adjusted HR [95% confidence interval (CI)] of mortality was 1.38 (1.34 to 1.42) for low-income only, 1.48 (1.42 to 1.55) for diabetes only and 1.95 (1.86 to 2.05) for diabetes and low-income combined, relative to the normal glucose and high income group. Corresponding HR (95% CI) in women were 1.19 (1.14 to 1.24), 1.54 (1.44 to 1.64) and 1.87 (1.75 to 2.01), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Both low household income and the presence of diabetes independently increase the risk of mortality, but their combined effects on mortality may be different between men and women.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, Howard J, Miller L, Alemzadeh R, Mihailescu D, Melgozza-Walker R, Abdulla N, Boucher-Berry C, Ize-Ludlow D, Levy R, Swenson Brousell C, Scott R, Heenan H, Lunt H, Kendall D, Willis J, Darlow B, Crimmins N, Edler D, Weis T, Schultz C, Rogers D, Latham D, Mawhorter C, Switzer C, Spencer W, Konstantnopoulus P, Broder S, Klein J, Bachrach B, Gardner M, Eichelberger D, Knight L, Szadek L, Welnick G, Thompson B, Hoffman R, Revell A, Cherko J, Carter K, Gilson E, Haines J, Arthur G, Bowen B, Zipf W, Graves P, Lozano R, Seiple D, Spicer K, Chang A, Fregosi J, Harbinson J, Paulson C, Stalters S, Wright P, Zlock D, Freeth A, Victory J, Maheshwari H, Maheshwari A, Holmstrom T, Bueno J, Arguello R, Ahern J, Noreika L, Watson V, Hourse S, Breyer P, Kissel C, Nicholson Y, Pfeifer M, Almazan S, Bajaj J, Quinn M, Funk K, McCance J, Moreno E, Veintimilla R, Wells A, Cook J, Trunnel S, Transue D, Surhigh J, Bezzaire D, Moltz K, Zacharski E, Henske J, Desai S, Frizelis K, Khan F, Sjoberg R, Allen K, Manning P, Hendry G, Taylor B, Jones S, Couch R, Danchak R, Lieberman D, Strader W, Bencomo M, Bailey T, Bedolla L, Roldan C, Moudiotis C, Vaidya B, Anning C, Bunce S, Estcourt S, Folland E, Gordon E, Harrill C, Ireland J, Piper J, Scaife L, Sutton K, Wilkins S, Costelloe M, Palmer J, Casas L, Miller C, Burgard M, Erickson C, Hallanger-Johnson J, Clark P, Taylor W, Galgani J, Banerjee S, Banda C, McEowen D, Kinman R, Lafferty A, Gillett S, Nolan C, Pathak M, Sondrol L, Hjelle T, Hafner S, Kotrba J, Hendrickson R, Cemeroglu A, Symington T, Daniel M, Appiagyei-Dankah Y, Postellon D, Racine M, Kleis L, Barnes K, Godwin S, McCullough H, Shaheen K, Buck G, Noel L, Warren M, Weber S, Parker S, Gillespie I, Nelson B, Frost C, Amrhein J, Moreland E, Hayes A, Peggram J, Aisenberg J, Riordan M, Zasa J, Cummings E, Scott K, Pinto T, Mokashi A, McAssey K, Helden E, Hammond P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Ethnic variation in personality disorder: evaluation of 6 years of hospital admissions

Aims and methodThere is limited evidence on ethnic differences in personality disorder prevalence rates. We compared rates of people with personality disorder admitted to hospital in East London from 2007 to 2013.

RESULTS

Of all people admitted to hospital, 9.7% had a personality disorder diagnosis. The admission rate for personality disorder has increased each year. Compared with White subjects, personality disorder was significantly less prevalent among Black and other minority ethnic (BME) groups. Personality disorder was diagnosed in 20% of forensic, 11% of general adult, 8% of adolescent and 2% of old-age in-patients.Clinical implicationsThe increasing number of personality disorder diagnoses year on year indicates the increasing impact of personality disorder on in-patient services. It is important to identify and appropriately manage patients with a personality disorder diagnosis due to the significant strain they place on resources. The reasons for fewer admissions of BME patients may reflect alternative service use, a truly lower prevalence rate or under-detection.Declaration of interestNone.

Twenty five years of beach monitoring in Hong Kong: A re-examination of the beach water quality classification scheme from a comparative and global perspective

Hong Kong's beach water quality classification scheme, used effectively for >25 years in protecting public health, was first established in local epidemiology studies during the late 1980s where Escherichia coli (E. coli) was identified as the most suitable faecal indicator bacteria. To review and further substantiate the scheme's robustness, a performance check was carried out to classify water quality of 37 major local beaches in Hong Kong during four bathing seasons (March-October) from 2010 to 2013. Given the enterococci and E. coli data collected, beach classification by the local scheme was found to be in line with the prominent international benchmarks recommended by the World Health Organization and the European Union. Local bacteriological studies over the last 15 years further confirmed that E. coli is the more suitable faecal indicator bacteria than enterococci in the local context.

Bronchial angles are associated with nodular bronchiectatic non-tuberculous mycobacteria lung disease

BACKGROUND

The nodular bronchiectatic (NB) form of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) lung disease usually involves the right middle lobe (RML) and the left upper lobe lingular segment. However, the reason underlying this preference is not known.

METHODS

Fifty patients with NB NTM lung disease who had both positive NTM culture(s) and NB lesions in the RML or lingular segment on computed tomography (CT) of the chest, and 100 healthy subjects matched for sex, age, height and body weight with normal chest CT, were randomly selected. Using reconstructed curved multiplanar reformation (MPR) images, the lengths, diameters and angles of the RML and lingular bronchi were measured.

RESULTS

Of the 150 individuals, 64% were female; the mean age was 55 years. The angles of the bronchi were significantly more acute in patients than in healthy subjects, both in the RML (patients, mean 46.75° ± standard deviation 8.87° vs. healthy subjects, mean 51.73° ± 7.76°; P = 0.001) and in the lingular segments (patients, mean 26.94° ± 8.16° vs. healthy subjects, mean 34.65° ± 9.75°; P < 0.001). In addition, the angles of the bronchi in the involved segments were more acute than those in the non-involved segments, both in the RML and the lingular segments. There were no differences in the lengths and bronchi diameters between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

An acute angle (obtuse slope) of RML/lingular bronchi could be an anatomical risk factor for NB NTM lung disease.

Oxidative Stress and Cardiovascular Risk in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: Insights From the DCCT/EDIC Study

Background

Hyperglycemia leading to increased oxidative stress is implicated in the increased risk for the development of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Methods and Results

A random subcohort of 349 participants was selected from the DCCT / EDIC (Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications) cohort. This included 320 controls and 29 cardiovascular disease cases that were augmented with 98 additional known cases to yield a case cohort of 447 participants (320 controls, 127 cases). Biosamples from DCCT baseline, year 1, and closeout of DCCT , and 1 to 2 years post‐ DCCT ( EDIC years 1 and 2) were measured for markers of oxidative stress, including plasma myeloperoxidase, paraoxonase activity, urinary F 2α isoprostanes, and its metabolite, 2,3 dinor‐8 iso prostaglandin F 2α . Following adjustment for glycated hemoblobin and weighting the observations inversely proportional to the sampling selection probabilities, higher paraoxonase activity, reflective of antioxidant activity, and 2,3 dinor‐8 iso prostaglandin F 2α , an oxidative marker, were significantly associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (−4.5% risk for 10% higher paraoxonase, P <0.003; −5.3% risk for 10% higher 2,3 dinor‐8 iso prostaglandin F 2α , P =0.0092). In contrast, the oxidative markers myeloperoxidase and F 2α isoprostanes were not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease after adjustment for glycated hemoblobin. There were no significant differences between DCCT intensive and conventional treatment groups in the change in all biomarkers across time segments.

Conclusions

Heightened antioxidant activity (rather than diminished oxidative stress markers) is associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk in type 1 diabetes mellitus, but these biomarkers did not change over time with intensification of glycemic control.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL : https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers: NCT 00360815 and NCT 00360893.