Compressive stress effect on the loss mechanism in a soft piezoelectric Pb(Zr,Ti)O3

High power piezoelectric devices are often subjected to external mechanical biases, in applications such as underwater transducers. While the performance of these devices under external pressure has been rather extensively studied, there is a lack of study on the loss mechanism in terms of three dielectric, elastic, and piezoelectric losses. Thus, in this paper, we study the mechanical bias stress dependence of the loss mechanism in a soft piezoelectric Pb(Zr,Ti)O₃ (PZT) from a scientific viewpoint, using an equivalent circuit methodology based on the fundamental longitudinal mode. In order to measure the loss behavior, a modified bolt-clamped Langevin transducer was designed and optimized using finite element analysis in order to facilitate the analysis easier. We present the preliminary experimental part of our project on the design of the proposed structure/methodology, material creep behavior, stress relaxation, and uniform stress distribution, in order to minimize the experimental errors. We also introduce a six terminal equivalent circuit analysis in order to determine three losses in the PZT specimen. The resonance/antiresonance frequencies and quality factors showed monotonous increase under compressive stress. Loss factors for one PZT composition are reported in this paper to show the feasibility of our methodology for measuring the uniaxial compressive stress dependence.

Results of re-irradiation for pelvic recurrence in anorectal cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate outcomes and toxicity profiles after re-irradiation in patients with pelvic recurrence of anorectal cancer.

METHODS

25 anorectal cancer patients who received re-irradiation for pelvic recurrence between 2005 and 2015 were included. For initial treatment, all patients underwent surgical resection and preoperative or postoperative radiotherapy.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 21.5 months (range, 2.9-84.4). After a median of 43.3 months (range, 11.7-218.5), patients received re-irradiation with a median dose of 45 Gy (range, 36-60). The equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2) of re-irradiation-calculated using α/β = 10 Gy-ranged from 34.5 to 84.0 Gy (median, 46.4). Surgical resection was performed for 11 patients, and 14 patients received concurrent chemotherapy with re-irradiation. The 3-year local progression-free survival was 29.7%. The 3-year overall survival was 49.7%. Concurrent chemotherapy with re-irradiation and re-irradiation doses >50 Gy EQD2_α/β=10 were significant prognostic factors for local progression free survival and overall survival according to multivariate analysis. 90% (9 of 10) of patients with symptoms had improvement after re-irradiation. Among 23 patients available for evaluation of late toxicity, 12 developed late toxicities. There were no Grade 4 late toxicities, and 6 patients had Grade 3 late toxicities (small bowel obstruction, bowel perforation and fistula).

CONCLUSION

Re-irradiation for pelvic recurrence of anorectal cancer improved symptoms of patients but the rate of late toxicity was high. Further investigation for patient selection is required.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Re-irradiation could be considered as a possible option for pelvic recurrence of anorectal cancer in selected patients.

Abstract P1-14-07: Randomized phase 3 study of anthracycline-containing regimens versus S-1 as first-line treatment for metastatic breast cancer (SELECT BC-CONFIRM)–A combined analysis of two randomized phase 3 studies (SELECT BC-CONFIRM and SELECT BC)–

Background: Anthracycline-containing regimens and taxane have been standard as the first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer (MBC). We conducted SELECT BC (randomized phase 3 study of taxane versus S-1 as first-line treatment for MBC) for evaluating the efficacy of S-1 for patients with HER2-negative MBC from 2006 to 2010 in Japan. This study demonstrated non-inferiority of S-1 in overall survival (OS) (median OS was 37.2 months in taxes group and 35.0 months in S-1 group (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.86–1.27, p=0.015)), and superiority in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) to taxanes. S-1 was also shown as less toxic than taxane (Lancet Oncol 2016; 17: 90-98). S-1 might provide clinical benefit as first-line treatment for patients with HER2-negative MBC. To confirm this suggestion, we have conducted further study (randomized phase 3 study of anthracycline-containing regimens versus S-1 as first-line treatment for HER2-negative MBC: SELECT BC-CONFIRM) from 2011 to present, and a combined analysis of two randomized studies (SELECT-BC CONFIRM and SELECT-BC).

Methods: In SELECT BC-CONFIRM, 230 patients receiving first-line treatment for MBC were randomly assigned to either anthracycline group (n=115) or S-1 group (n=115). Anthracycline group patients received anthracycline-containing regimens (AC, EC, FAC, FEC, q3w) at the discretion of the treating physician. S-1 group patients received S-1 40–60 mg twice daily based on the patient's body surface area for 28 days on, 14-day off. The primary endpoint was OS, and secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), time to treatment failure (TTF), adverse events, HRQOL, and cost-effectiveness. The results were combined with SELECT-BC, to confirm the hypothesis that S-1 treatment is not inferior to the standard therapy (taxanes / anthracycline) for HER2-negative MBC.

Results: A combined analysis of the two studies showed that HR was 1.06, 95%CI 0.90-1.253, and p=0.0071 between the standard therapy group and S-1 group. In addition, the Bayesian posterior probability for which HR would be less than 1.333 was about 99.6%.

Conclusions: A combined analysis of SELECT BC-CONFIRM and SELECT BC clearly demonstrated that OS with S-1 was not inferior to that with the standard therapy in patients receiving first-line treatment for HER2-negative MBC. S-1 could become a standard therapy for this patient population.

Citation Format: Park Y, Akabane H, Watanabe T, Takahashi M, Sagara Y, Nishimura R, Tsurutani J, Takashima T, Fujisawa T, Hozumi Y, Uemura Y, Mukai H. Randomized phase 3 study of anthracycline-containing regimens versus S-1 as first-line treatment for metastatic breast cancer (SELECT BC-CONFIRM)–A combined analysis of two randomized phase 3 studies (SELECT BC-CONFIRM and SELECT BC)– [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-14-07.

Abstract P4-14-09: A nationwide data on the cardiovascular protective effect of tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitor in postmenopausal women with breast cancer

A large proportion of breast cancer patients receive hormonal therapy as their adjuvant treatment options. For postmenopausal women, the initial choice for the hormonal therapy is aromatase inhibitor (AI), and tamoxifen (TM) is reserved for women experiencing severe side effects against AI or having low bone density. An important but unresolved clinical question regarding the use of AI in postmenopausal women is the safety of AI regarding the risk cardiovascular events. Studies have shown inconsistent results over the cardiovascular safety of AI and TM. In this study, we investigated the risk of developing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in women with breast cancer who receive hormonal therapy using AI, TM, or both.

To this end, we used the National Health Insurance Sharing Service in Korea which is provided by National Health Insurance Service. The database provides anonymized insurance data for research purposes after the approval of the review committee. In the database, we identified 47,569 women with the age older than 55 who were diagnosed with breast cancer. Patients were classified as no hormonal treatment group (n=18,807), AI group (n=19,584), TM group (n=7,081), or Switch group (n=2,097). The Switch group was defined as the women with history of both AI and TM prescriptions. During the studied period, a total of 2,032 cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events (CVE) were recorded.

Overall, the women prescribed with TM had significantly less hazard ratio for developing CVE when compared to the women who did not receive any hormonal treatment (HR 0.809 95% C.I. 0.706-0.928). However, this protective effect of tamoxifen was not observed in either AI or Switch group (HR 0.917 95% C.I. 0.833-1.010, and HR 0.856 95% C.I. 0.695-1.053, respectively). The protective effect of TM was also similar in women older than 60 (HR 0.808 95% C.I. 0.696-0.938). The cardiovascular and cerebrovascular protective effects of tamoxifen was also substantial in high risk women defined by their family history of cardiovascular diseases and the diagnosis of hypertension or diabetes.

Our results suggest that the use of TM is associated with a substantial protective effect against developing cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events in women with breast cancer. However, the protective effect was not observed for women receiving AI. Our data suggest the potential tailored approach in hormonal treatment in breast cancer patients who are at high risk of cardiovascular of cerebrovascular events.

Citation Format: Moon H-G, Choi SH, Park Y, Jung JG, Ju YW, Kim KE, Kim Y, Lee E, Lee H-B, Han W, Noh D-Y, Yoon H-J. A nationwide data on the cardiovascular protective effect of tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitor in postmenopausal women with breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-14-09.

Long-term results and PSA kinetics after robotic SBRT for prostate cancer: multicenter retrospective study in Korea (Korean radiation oncology group study 15-01)

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the treatment outcome and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) change after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for localized prostate cancer.

METHODS

Patients with localized prostate cancer treated with SBRT at three academic hospitals were enrolled. Treatment was delivered using Cyberknife with dose range from 35 to 37.5 Gy in 5 fractions. Biochemical failure (BCF) was assessed with Phoenix definition and toxicities were scored with Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) toxicity criteria. The PSA kinetics were analyzed in patients who received no androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and showed no recurrence.

RESULTS

Of the total 88 patients, 14 patients (15.9%) received ADT. After median follow-up of 63.8 months, the 5-year BCF free survival (BCFFS) was 94.7%. Two patients experienced late grade ≥ 3 GI toxicities (2.2%). The median nadir PSA was 0.12 ng/mL (range, 0.00-2.62 ng/mL) and the median time to nadir was 44.8 months (range, 0.40-85.7 months). Patients who reached nadir before 24 months showed poorer BCFFS than the others. The rate of PSA decline was maximum in the first year after treatment and gradually decreased with time. The pattern of PSA change was significantly different according to the risk groups (p = 0.011) with the slope of - 0.139, - 0.161 and - 0.253 ng/mL/month in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SBRT for localized prostate cancer showed favorable efficacy with minimal toxicities. The time to PSA nadir was significantly associated with treatment outcome. PSA revealed rapid initial decline and slower decrease with longer follow-up and the patterns of PSA changes were different according to the risk groups.

A similarity measure based on Kullback–Leibler divergence for collaborative filtering in sparse data

In the neighbourhood-based collaborative filtering (CF) algorithms, a user similarity measure is used to find other users similar to an active user. Most of the existing user similarity measures rely on the co-rated items. However, there are not enough co-rated items in sparse dataset, which usually leads to poor prediction. In this article, a new similarity scheme is proposed, which breaks free of the constraint of the co-rated items. Moreover, an item similarity measure based on the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence is presented, which identifies the relation between items based on the probability density distribution of ratings. Since the item similarity based on KL divergence makes full use of all ratings, it owns better flexibility for sparse datasets. The CF algorithm using our proposed similarity scheme is implemented and compared with some classic CF algorithms. The compared results show that the CF using our similarity has better predictive performance. Therefore, our similarity scheme is a good solution for the sparsity problem and has great potential to be applied to recommendation systems.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, Howard J, Miller L, Alemzadeh R, Mihailescu D, Melgozza-Walker R, Abdulla N, Boucher-Berry C, Ize-Ludlow D, Levy R, Swenson Brousell C, Scott R, Heenan H, Lunt H, Kendall D, Willis J, Darlow B, Crimmins N, Edler D, Weis T, Schultz C, Rogers D, Latham D, Mawhorter C, Switzer C, Spencer W, Konstantnopoulus P, Broder S, Klein J, Bachrach B, Gardner M, Eichelberger D, Knight L, Szadek L, Welnick G, Thompson B, Hoffman R, Revell A, Cherko J, Carter K, Gilson E, Haines J, Arthur G, Bowen B, Zipf W, Graves P, Lozano R, Seiple D, Spicer K, Chang A, Fregosi J, Harbinson J, Paulson C, Stalters S, Wright P, Zlock D, Freeth A, Victory J, Maheshwari H, Maheshwari A, Holmstrom T, Bueno J, Arguello R, Ahern J, Noreika L, Watson V, Hourse S, Breyer P, Kissel C, Nicholson Y, Pfeifer M, Almazan S, Bajaj J, Quinn M, Funk K, McCance J, Moreno E, Veintimilla R, Wells A, Cook J, Trunnel S, Transue D, Surhigh J, Bezzaire D, Moltz K, Zacharski E, Henske J, Desai S, Frizelis K, Khan F, Sjoberg R, Allen K, Manning P, Hendry G, Taylor B, Jones S, Couch R, Danchak R, Lieberman D, Strader W, Bencomo M, Bailey T, Bedolla L, Roldan C, Moudiotis C, Vaidya B, Anning C, Bunce S, Estcourt S, Folland E, Gordon E, Harrill C, Ireland J, Piper J, Scaife L, Sutton K, Wilkins S, Costelloe M, Palmer J, Casas L, Miller C, Burgard M, Erickson C, Hallanger-Johnson J, Clark P, Taylor W, Galgani J, Banerjee S, Banda C, McEowen D, Kinman R, Lafferty A, Gillett S, Nolan C, Pathak M, Sondrol L, Hjelle T, Hafner S, Kotrba J, Hendrickson R, Cemeroglu A, Symington T, Daniel M, Appiagyei-Dankah Y, Postellon D, Racine M, Kleis L, Barnes K, Godwin S, McCullough H, Shaheen K, Buck G, Noel L, Warren M, Weber S, Parker S, Gillespie I, Nelson B, Frost C, Amrhein J, Moreland E, Hayes A, Peggram J, Aisenberg J, Riordan M, Zasa J, Cummings E, Scott K, Pinto T, Mokashi A, McAssey K, Helden E, Hammond P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.