A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compartmental approach including dynamic and nonlinear behavior of transmission through three factors: susceptible, infected, and removed (recovered and deceased) individuals. Using the Lambert W Function, we propose a framework to study solutions of the SIR model. This demonstrates the applications of COVID-19 transmission data to model the spread of a real-world disease. Different models of disease including the SIR, SIRmp and SEIRρqr model are compared with respect to their ability to predict disease spread. Physical distancing impacts and personal protection equipment use are discussed with relevance to the COVID-19 spread.

The expression profile of miR-222b-5p/MAPK10 in spleens of SPF chickens infected with REV-SNV at 28-42 dpi

Reticuloendotheliosis virus (REV) is an avian oncogenic retrovirus that causes atrophy of immune organs, such as the spleen, thymus, and bursa of Fabricius, leading to severe immunosuppression. However, there is limited information describing the genes or microRNAs (miRNAs) that play a role in replicating REV-spleen necrosis virus (SNV). Our previous miRNA and RNA sequencing data showed that the expression of gga-miR-222b-5p was significantly upregulated in REV-SNV-infected chicken spleens of 7, 14, and 21 dpi compared to non-infected chicken spleens, but mitogen-activated protein kinase 10 (MAPK10), which is related to innate immunity, had the opposite expression pattern. To understand chicken cellular miRNA function in the virus-host interactions during REV infection, we used quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) to determine whether the expression of gga-miR-222b-5p and MAPK10 in the spleen of specific-pathogen-free chickens at 28, 35, and 42 dpi was consistent with the first 3 time points, and dual-luciferase reporter assay was used to determine the targeting relationship between gga-miR-222b-5p and MAPK10. Results show that MAPK10 was downregulated at all 3 time points; however, significant difference (p⟨0.01) was noted only at 35 dpi. Moreover, the expression of gga-miR-222b-5p was upregulated; however, significant difference (p⟨0.01) was observed only at 28 and 35 dpi. A dual-luciferase reporter assay showed that MAPK10 is a direct target of gga-miR-222b-5p. This study suggests that gga-miR-222b-5p may target MAPK10 to promote the REV-SNV-induced tumorigenesis via the RLRs signaling pathway.

[Comparison of preoperative chemotherapy with concurrent chemoradiotherapy combined with TME for 305 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer]

Objective: To retrospectively analyze the long-term efficacy and prognostic factors of preoperative chemotherapy (PCT) or chemoradiotherapy (PCRT) combined with total mesorectal excision in locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods: Clinical pathology data of 305 patients with localized advanced rectal cancer admitted to the Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from 2006 to 2018 were collected, of whom 246 patients received PCRT (PCRT group), 59 patients received PCT (PCT group). Kaplan-Meier and Log rank test were used for the survival analysis, Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis, and the prognosis of two groups of patients were compared by the propensity score matching (PSM). Results: In the whole group of 305 patients, 20 cases of tumors located in the upper part of the rectum and at the junction of rectum and colon, 96 cases in the middle of the rectum and 189 cases in the lower part of the rectum. PCRT group included 38 cases of cT2-3 phase, 11 cases of cT4a stage, 10 cases of cT4b stage, while the cases in PCT group were 184, 0 and 62 cases, respectively, the difference is statistically significant (P<0.05). The R0 excision rates of PCRT group and PCT group were 100% (246/246) and 96.6% (57/59), respectively, and the total pathological remission rates were 13.4% and 3.3%, respectively (P<0.05). After PSM, the 3-year survival rates of PCRT group and the PCT group were 86.6% and 89.9% (P>0.05), respectively, and the progression-free survival rates were 74.6% and 77.2% (P>0.05), local recurring free survival rates were 100% and 92.3% (P>0.05), distant metastasis free survival rate were 75.6% and 77.3% (P>0.05). Pre-treatment N-positive, N-degeneration and MRF-positive were all associated with total survival (P<0.05). Conclusion: In the PCRT group, with a higher proportion of patients with stage T4b and lower rectal cancer, the long-term efficacy of PCRT was similar to that of PCT, and higher R0 excision rate and pathological complete response rate could be obtained.

[Mid-and-long term follow-up of autogenous tibial periosteum-bone complex transplantation for treatment of cystic osteochondral lesion of talus]

Objective: To further clarify the mid-and-long term follow-up results of self-designed tibial periosteum-bone complex transplantation in the treatment of Hepple V osteochondral lesion of the talus(OLTs). Methods: The clinical data of 30 patients with Hepple V OLTs who received treatment in the Sports Medicine Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Army Military Medical University from October 2011 to January 2019 were analyzed. There were 19 males and 11 females with a mean age of (40±11) years. Patients were treated with autogenous tibial periosteum-bone complex transplantation and were followed up for at least 2 years. The Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) ankle-hindfoot score, the visual analog scale score (VAS) of pain, the simplified symptomatology evaluation (SSE) and imaging results before the operation and at the follow-up were recorded and compared. Results: The cohort were followed-up for a mean of 63.9 months (range 24-110 months). Twenty-nine (96.7%) patients were satisfied with the curative effect. The FAOS score was improved from 53.5±6.2 preoperatively to 88.4±6.6 at the final follow-up (P<0.001). The AOFAS ankle-hindfoot scale improved from 61.6±8.2 preoperatively to 90.8±6.8 at the last follow-up (P<0.001). The VAS score decreased from 4.3±0.2 preoperative to 0.7±0.7 at the last follow-up (P<0.001). The SSE score was poor in 14 cases (46.7%), average in 16 cases (53.3%) before the operation; and it was excellent in 23 cases (76.7%), good in 6 cases (20%), average in 1 case (3.3%) at the last follow-up. Imaging examination showed cystic change cure rate was 83.3%, cartilage defects were completely infilled with repair tissue, which didn't show any signs of degeneration. However, repair tissue showed varying degrees of heterogeneous signal compared to the normal articular cartilage. Conclusion: The autograft of tibial periosteum-bone complex transplantation is a safe and feasible method for the treatment of osteochondral lesion of the talus in Hepple V type, with good mid-and-long term clinical effect.

[Peking Union Medical College Hospital and Its Training of Pharmaceutical Staff in the Republican Period]

Several training programs for the pharmacy staff in the Pharmacy Department of Beijing Union Medical College Hospital were implemented over 1910's to 1942, such as apprenticeships, prior courses on pharmaceutical sciences,vocational training, study overseas, and developing the Beiping Pharmacy Evening School in collaboration with the North China Pharmaceutical Society around the 1930's. These programs explored training models for the hospital, developed practical talent with competence ensuring the needs and requirements within the hospital, established practical education on pharmacy in Beiping and therefore contributed to promoting future pharmaceutical training systems in China.

[Establishment and validation of a new predictive equation with multiple risk factors for the development of cardiorenal syndrome type 1 in patients with acute myocardial infarction]

Objective: To investigate the independent risk factors of cardiorenal syndrome type 1 (CRS1) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to build a predictive equation for the development of CRS1 in these patients. Method: Consecutive inpatients with AMI, who hospitalized from January 2017 to December 2018 in the Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, were enrolled in this case-control study. Patients were divided into CRS1 group and non-CRS1 group according to the presence or absence of CRS1.The clinical data were collected through the electronic medical record system of Hunan Provincial People's Hospital. The matching process was conducted with a minimum-distance scoring method and a 1∶1 match between the CRS1 group and the no-CRS1 group, the propensity score was calculated through the logistic regression model. Factors with statistically significant differences in univariate analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression model to analyze the risk factors of AMI patients with CRS1, then the independent risk factors were used to establish a predicting equation for CRS1 by logistic regression function for model building. Area under the curve (AUC) value and the best cut-off value of the combined predictors was determined according to the ROC curve. Python 3.8 software was used to perform 10-fold cross-validation on modeling samples. Results: A total of 942 patients were included, there were 113 cases in CRS1 group and 829 cases in non-CRS1 group. Ultimately, 99 CRS1 patients were successfully matched to 99 non-CRS1 patient using 1∶1 matching. After propensity score matching, the baseline age and sex along with heart rate, mean arterial pressure, percentage of people with a history of diabetes, hypertension, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, myocardial ischemia time, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin Ⅱ receptor blockers use, and β receptor blocker use were similar between the two groups(all P>0.05). The contrast agent dosage was also similar between the two groups (P=0.266). The peak cardiac troponin I (cTnI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP), white blood cell count, base estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albumin and hemoglobin levels were statistically significant between the two groups (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that decreased baseline eGFR, increased NT-proBNP, peak cTnI concentrations and white blood cell count were independent risk factors of CRS1 in AMI patients (all P<0.01).The predicting equation of the combined predictor was established by transforming the logistic model equation, L=0.031×cTnI+0.000 2×NT-proBNP-0.024×eGFR+0.254×white blood cell count, where L represented the combined predictor. ROC curve analysis indicated that the AUC of the peak cTnI, NT-proBNP, baseline eGFR, white blood cell count, and combined predictor were 0.76, 0.85, 0.79, 0.81, and 0.92 respectively (all P<0.05), and the cutoff value of combined predictor was 2.6. The AUC of ROC curve after the model's ten-fold cross validation was 0.89. Conclusions: Decreased baseline eGFR, increased NT-proBNP, peak cTnI concentrations and white blood cell count are the independent risk factors for CRS1 in AMI patients. The combined predictor equation based on the above 4 biomarkers presents a good predictive value for CRS1 in AMI patients.

Increased risk of diabetes in cancer survivors: a pooled analysis of 13 population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is considered as an established risk factor for cancer development. However, the link between diabetes among cancer survivors remains inconclusive. The hypothesis of this study was to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of incidence of diabetes in cancer survivors compared with the HR in the general population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from database inception to 15 December 2020 for population-based cohort studies. Summary effect estimates were combined using random-effects models. We also performed subgroup analyses to test sources of heterogeneity and the stability of the results stratified by various study and participant characteristics.

RESULTS

Thirteen population-based cohort studies involving 1 686 595 participants were analyzed. The HR for the development of diabetes in cancer survivors was 1.39 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.50; I2 = 82.3%; P < 0.001] compared with that in noncancer controls, among which survivors of hematological, gynecologic, breast, colorectal and urinary tract cancer (all P < 0.05) showed consistent significant results, whereas no significant increased risk was observed for other cancer types. The effects were more prominent in populations of shorter cancer survival duration (<1 year) (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.32-3.32; P = 0.009). Moreover, cancer survivors with a longer follow-up period (>10 years) had a relatively higher risk of diabetes (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.77) than those with a shorter follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large pooled analysis of population-based cohorts, evidence supports the hypothesis that the risk of developing diabetes is increased in cancer survivors compared with the general population. We should interpret the results with caution for considerable interstudy heterogeneity. However, health policy makers should take this as a challenge for the early prevention and effective intervention of diabetes.