Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly established populations should focus on either enhancing Allee effects or suppressing populations below Allee thresholds, such that extinction proceeds without further intervention. The spread phase of invasions results from the coupling of population growth with dispersal. Reaction-diffusion is the simplest form of spread, resulting in continuous expansion and asymptotically constant radial rates of spread. However, spread of most nonindigenous insects is characterized by occasional long-distance dispersal, which results in the formation of isolated colonies that grow, coalesce, and greatly increase spread. Allee effects also affect spread, generally in a negative fashion. Efforts to slow, stop, or reverse spread should incorporate the spread dynamics unique to the target species.

Invasion speed is affected by geographical variation in the strength of Allee effects

Allee effects can play a critical role in slowing or preventing the establishment of low density founder populations of non-indigenous species. Similarly, the spread of established invaders into new habitats can be influenced by the degree to which small founder populations ahead of the invasion front are suppressed through Allee effects. We develop an approach to use empirical data on the gypsy moth, a non-indigenous invader in North America, to quantify the Allee threshold across geographical regions, and we report that the strength of the Allee effect is subject to spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, we present what is to our knowledge the first empirical evidence that geographical regions with higher Allee thresholds are associated with slower speeds of invasion.

Allee effects and pulsed invasion by the gypsy moth

Biological invasions pose considerable threats to the world's ecosystems and cause substantial economic losses. A prime example is the invasion of the gypsy moth in the United States, for which more than $194 million was spent on management and monitoring between 1985 and 2004 alone. The spread of the gypsy moth across eastern North America is, perhaps, the most thoroughly studied biological invasion in the world, providing a unique opportunity to explore spatiotemporal variability in rates of spread. Here we describe evidence for periodic pulsed invasions, defined as regularly punctuated range expansions interspersed among periods of range stasis. We use a theoretical model with parameter values estimated from long-term monitoring data to show how an interaction between strong Allee effects (negative population growth at low densities) and stratified diffusion (most individuals disperse locally, but a few seed new colonies by long-range movement) can explain the invasion pulses. Our results indicate that suppressing population peaks along range borders might greatly slow invasion.

Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks

The effect of landscape mosaic on recurrent traveling waves in spatial population dynamics was studied via simulation modeling across a theoretical landscape with varying levels of connectivity. Phase angle analysis was used to identify locations of wave epicenters on patchy landscapes. Simulations of a tri-trophic model of the larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana) with cyclic population dynamics on landscapes with a single focus of high-density habitat produced traveling waves generally radiating outwardly from single and multiple foci and spreading to isolated habitats. We have proposed two hypotheses for this result: (1) immigration subsidies inflate population growth rates in the high connectivity habitat and, thus, reduce the time from valleys to peaks in population cycles; (2) populations in the high connectivity habitat crash from peaks to valleys faster than in an isolated habitat due to over-compensatory density dependence. While population growth rates in the high connectivity habitat benefitted from immigration subsidies, times from population valleys to peaks were greater in high connectivity habitat due to a greater magnitude of fluctuations. Conversely, the mean time of the crash from population peaks to valleys was shorter in high connectivity habitat, supporting the second hypothesis. Results of this study suggest over-compensatory density dependence as an underlying mechanism for recurrent traveling waves originating in high connectivity habitats aggregated around a single focus.

Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks?

Comparisons of intraspecific spatial synchrony across multiple epidemic insect species can be useful for generating hypotheses about major determinants of population patterns at larger scales. The present study compares patterns of spatial synchrony in outbreaks of six epidemic bark beetle species in North America and Europe. Spatial synchrony among populations of the Eurasian spruce bark beetle Ips typographus was significantly higher than for the other bark beetle species. The spatial synchrony observed in epidemic bark beetles was also compared with previously published patterns of synchrony in outbreaks of defoliating forest Lepidoptera, revealing a marked difference between these two major insect groups. The bark beetles exhibited a generally lower degree of spatial synchrony than the Lepidoptera, possibly because bark beetles are synchronized by different weather variables that are acting on a smaller scale than those affecting the Lepidoptera, or because inherent differences in their dynamics leads to more cyclic oscillations and more synchronous spatial dynamics in the Lepidoptera.

The influence of O3, NO2 and SO2 on growth of Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica in the Carpathian Mountains

At 17 long-term pollution monitoring sites throughout the Carpathian Mountains, tree growth patterns and variation in growth rate were examined to determine relationship of tree growth to specific pollutants. Canopy dominant Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica were selected at each site. Basal area increment (BAI) values were calculated from raw ring widths and used as an estimate of tree growth. Across all sites, BAI chronologies were highly variable, therefore local conditions and forest structure accounted for considerable variation. Several significant relationships, however, implicated a role of pollutants on tree growth. Average levels (1997-1999) of NO(2) and SO(2) were inversely related to BAI means (1989-1999). Although average O(3) alone was not related to growth, the maximum O(3) value reported at the sites was negatively correlated with overall growth. A variable representing the combined effect of O(3), NO(2) and SO(2) was negatively correlated with both P. abies and F. sylvatica growth. Pollution data were used to categorize all sites into 'high' or 'low' pollution sites. Difference chronologies based on these categories indicated trends of decline in the 'high' pollution sites relative to 'low' pollution site. In the more heavily polluted sites, the BAI of Fagus sylvatica has declined approximately 50% and Picea abies has declined 20% over the past 45 years.

Area-Wide Analysis of Hardwood Defoliator Effects on Tree Conditions in the Allegheny Plateau

The effects of defoliation caused by three foliage feeding insects, the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), the cherry scallopshell moth (Hydria prunivorata), and the elm spanworm (Ennomos subsignarius), on tree mortality and crown conditions were evaluated using data collected from 1984 to 1999 in the Allegheny National Forest located in northwestern Pennsylvania. While previous studies have focused on the effects of defoliation on trees in individual stands, this study differed in that it used exhaustive maps of defoliation and an areawide network of plots to assess these effects. A geographic information system was used to map the coincidence of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis and Forest Health Monitoring plot locations with defoliation polygons derived from aerial surveys to calculate cumulative years of defoliation for each pest. Over 85% of the Allegheny National Forest land area was defoliated at least once during the 16-year period from 1984 to 1999. Frequency of defoliation by specific defoliator species was closely associated with the dominance of their primary hosts in stands. Frequency of defoliation was often associated with crown dieback and mortality, but these relationships were not detectable in all species. These results suggest that when impacts are averaged over large areas (such as in this study) effects of defoliation are likely to be considerably less severe than when measured in selected stands (as is the approach taken in most previous impact studies).

Evaluation of preventive treatments in low-density gypsy moth populations using pheromone traps

Pheromone traps can be used for evaluating the success of treatments that are applied to either eradicate or delay the growth of isolated low-density populations of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.). We developed an index of treatment success, T, that measures the reduction in moth counts in the block treated adjusted by the change in moth counts in the reference area around it. This index was used to analyze the effectiveness of treatments that were conducted as part of the USDA Forest Service Slow-the-Spread of the gypsy moth project from 1993 to 2001. Out of 556 treatments that were applied during this period, 266 (188,064 ha) were selected for the analysis based on several criteria. They included 173 blocks treated with Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) variety kurstaki and 93 blocks treated with racemic disparlure. Analysis using general linear models indicated that disparlure treatments were significantly more effective than B. thuringiensis treatments in reducing moth captures. The frequency of repeated treatments in the same area was higher after B. thuringiensis than after disparlure applications. Treatments were more successful if the pretreatment moth counts outside of the block treated were low compared with moth counts inside the block.

Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps

Spatially extended population models predict complex spatiotemporal patterns, such as spiral waves and spatial chaos, as a result of the reaction-diffusion dynamics that arise from trophic interactions. However, examples of such patterns in ecological systems are scarce. We develop a quantitative technique to demonstrate the existence of waves in Central European larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) outbreaks. We show that these waves travel toward the northeast-east at 210 kilometers per year. A theoretical model involving a moth-enemy interaction predicts directional waves, but only if dispersal is directionally biased or habitat productivity varies across the landscape. Our study confirms that nonlinear ecological interactions can lead to complex spatial dynamics at a regional scale.