Impact analysis studies of clinical prediction rules relevant to primary care: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Following appropriate validation, clinical prediction rules (CPRs) should undergo impact analysis to evaluate their effect on patient care. The aim of this systematic review is to narratively review and critically appraise CPR impact analysis studies relevant to primary care.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults and children.

INTERVENTION

Studies that implemented the CPR compared to usual care were included.

STUDY DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial (RCT), controlled before-after, and interrupted time series.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Physician behaviour and/or patient outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 18 studies, incorporating 14 unique CPRs, were included. The main study design was RCT (n=13). Overall, 10 studies reported an improvement in primary outcome with CPR implementation. Of 6 musculoskeletal studies, 5 were effective in altering targeted physician behaviour in ordering imaging for patients presenting with ankle, knee and neck musculoskeletal injuries. Of 6 cardiovascular studies, 4 implemented cardiovascular risk scores, and 3 reported no impact on physician behaviour outcomes, such as prescribing and referral, or patient outcomes, such as reduction in serum lipid levels. 2 studies examined CPRs in decision-making for patients presenting with chest pain and reduced inappropriate admissions. Of 5 respiratory studies, 2 were effective in reducing antibiotic prescribing for sore throat following CPR implementation. Overall, study methodological quality was often unclear due to incomplete reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite increasing interest in developing and validating CPRs relevant to primary care, relatively few have gone through impact analysis. To date, research has focused on a small number of CPRs across few clinical domains only.

Interventions for improving outcomes in patients with multimorbidity in primary care and community settings

BACKGROUND

Many people with chronic disease have more than one chronic condition, which is referred to as multimorbidity. The term comorbidity is also used but this is now taken to mean that there is a defined index condition with other linked conditions, for example diabetes and cardiovascular disease. It is also used when there are combinations of defined conditions that commonly co-exist, for example diabetes and depression. While this is not a new phenomenon, there is greater recognition of its impact and the importance of improving outcomes for individuals affected. Research in the area to date has focused mainly on descriptive epidemiology and impact assessment. There has been limited exploration of the effectiveness of interventions to improve outcomes for people with multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness of health-service or patient-oriented interventions designed to improve outcomes in people with multimorbidity in primary care and community settings. Multimorbidity was defined as two or more chronic conditions in the same individual.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and seven other databases to 28 September 2015. We also searched grey literature and consulted experts in the field for completed or ongoing studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Two review authors independently screened and selected studies for inclusion. We considered randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised clinical trials (NRCTs), controlled before-after studies (CBAs), and interrupted time series analyses (ITS) evaluating interventions to improve outcomes for people with multimorbidity in primary care and community settings. Multimorbidity was defined as two or more chronic conditions in the same individual. This includes studies where participants can have combinations of any condition or have combinations of pre-specified common conditions (comorbidity), for example, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. The comparison was usual care as delivered in that setting.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data from the included studies, evaluated study quality, and judged the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We conducted a meta-analysis of the results where possible and carried out a narrative synthesis for the remainder of the results. We present the results in a 'Summary of findings' table and tabular format to show effect sizes across all outcome types.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 18 RCTs examining a range of complex interventions for people with multimorbidity. Nine studies focused on defined comorbid conditions with an emphasis on depression, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The remaining studies focused on multimorbidity, generally in older people. In 12 studies, the predominant intervention element was a change to the organisation of care delivery, usually through case management or enhanced multidisciplinary team work. In six studies, the interventions were predominantly patient-oriented, for example, educational or self-management support-type interventions delivered directly to participants. Overall our confidence in the results regarding the effectiveness of interventions ranged from low to high certainty. There was little or no difference in clinical outcomes (based on moderate certainty evidence). Mental health outcomes improved (based on high certainty evidence) and there were modest reductions in mean depression scores for the comorbidity studies that targeted participants with depression (standardized mean difference (SMD) -2.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.52 to -1.95). There was probably a small improvement in patient-reported outcomes (moderate certainty evidence) although two studies that specifically targeted functional difficulties in participants had positive effects on functional outcomes with one of these studies also reporting a reduction in mortality at four year follow-up (Int 6%, Con 13%, absolute difference 7%). The intervention may make little or no difference to health service use (low certainty evidence), may slightly improve medication adherence (low certainty evidence), probably slightly improves patient-related health behaviours (moderate certainty evidence), and probably improves provider behaviour in terms of prescribing behaviour and quality of care (moderate certainty evidence). Cost data were limited.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review identifies the emerging evidence to support policy for the management of people with multimorbidity and common comorbidities in primary care and community settings. There are remaining uncertainties about the effectiveness of interventions for people with multimorbidity in general due to the relatively small number of RCTs conducted in this area to date, with mixed findings overall. It is possible that the findings may change with the inclusion of large ongoing well-organised trials in future updates. The results suggest an improvement in health outcomes if interventions can be targeted at risk factors such as depression, or specific functional difficulties in people with multimorbidity.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles: a cross-sectional database study using the PROMPT criteria

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to establish the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in middle-aged adults (45-64 years) in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles, and to investigate factors associated with PIP, using the PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments) criteria.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using 2012 data from the Enhanced Prescribing Database (EPD), covering the full population in Northern Ireland and the Health Services Executive Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE-PCRS) database, covering the most socio-economically deprived third of the population in this age group in the Republic of Ireland. The prevalence for each PROMPT criterion and overall prevalence of PIP were calculated. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between PIP and gender, age group and polypharmacy.

RESULTS

This study included 441,925 patients from the EPD and 309,748 patients from the HSE-PCRS database. Polypharmacy was common in both datasets (46.7 % in the HSE-PCRS and 20.3 % in the EPD). The prevalence of PIP was 42.9 % (95%CI 42.7, 43.1) in the HSE-PCRS and 21.1 % (95%CI 21.0, 21.2) in the EPD. Age group, female gender and polypharmacy were significantly associated with PIP in both populations (p < 0.05) and polypharmacy had the strongest association.

CONCLUSIONS

PIP is common amongst middle-aged people with the risk of PIP increasing with polypharmacy. Differences in the prevalence of polypharmacy and PIP between the two populations may relate to heterogeneity in healthcare services and different socio-economic profiles, with higher rates of multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy in more deprived groups.

Multimorbidity and functional decline in community-dwelling adults: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity affects up to one quarter of primary care populations. It is associated with reduced quality of life, an increased risk of mental health difficulties and increased healthcare utilisation. Functional decline is defined as developing difficulties with activities of daily living and is independently associated with poorer health outcomes. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the association between multimorbidity and functional decline and to what extent multimorbidity predicts future functional decline.

METHODS

A systematic literature search (1990-2014) and narrative analysis was conducted.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Population; Community-dwelling adults (≥18 years), Risk; Multimorbidity defined as the presence of ≥2 chronic medical conditions in an individual, Primary outcome; Physical functional decline measured using a validated instrument, Study design; cross-sectional or cohort studies. The following databases were included: PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and the International Research Community on Multimorbidity (IRCMo) publication list. Methodological quality assessment of included studies was conducted with a suitable risk of bias tool.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies were eligible for inclusion (28 cross-sectional studies and 9 cohort studies). The majority of cross-sectional studies (n = 24/28) demonstrated a consistent association between multimorbidity and functional decline. Twelve of these studies reported that increasing numbers of chronic condition counts were associated with worsening functional decline. Nine cohort studies included 14,133 study participants with follow-up periods ranging from one to six years. The majority (n = 5) found that multimorbidity predicted functional decline. Of the five studies that reported the impact of increasing numbers of conditions, all reported greater functional decline with increasing numbers of conditions. One study examined disease severity and found that this also predicted greater functional decline. Overall, cohort studies were of good methodological quality but were mixed in terms of participants, multimorbidity definitions, follow-up duration, and outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence indicates that multimorbidity predicts future functional decline, with greater decline in patients with higher numbers of conditions and greater disease severity. This review highlights the importance of considering physical functioning when designing interventions and systems of care for patients with multimorbidity, particularly for patients with higher numbers of conditions and greater disease severity.

Multimorbidity and functional decline in community-dwelling adults: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity affects up to one quarter of primary care populations. It is associated with reduced quality of life, an increased risk of mental health difficulties and increased healthcare utilisation. Functional decline is defined as developing difficulties with activities of daily living and is independently associated with poorer health outcomes. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the association between multimorbidity and functional decline and to what extent multimorbidity predicts future functional decline.

METHODS

A systematic literature search (1990-2014) and narrative analysis was conducted.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Population; Community-dwelling adults (≥18 years), Risk; Multimorbidity defined as the presence of ≥2 chronic medical conditions in an individual, Primary outcome; Physical functional decline measured using a validated instrument, Study design; cross-sectional or cohort studies. The following databases were included: PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and the International Research Community on Multimorbidity (IRCMo) publication list. Methodological quality assessment of included studies was conducted with a suitable risk of bias tool.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies were eligible for inclusion (28 cross-sectional studies and 9 cohort studies). The majority of cross-sectional studies (n = 24/28) demonstrated a consistent association between multimorbidity and functional decline. Twelve of these studies reported that increasing numbers of chronic condition counts were associated with worsening functional decline. Nine cohort studies included 14,133 study participants with follow-up periods ranging from one to six years. The majority (n = 5) found that multimorbidity predicted functional decline. Of the five studies that reported the impact of increasing numbers of conditions, all reported greater functional decline with increasing numbers of conditions. One study examined disease severity and found that this also predicted greater functional decline. Overall, cohort studies were of good methodological quality but were mixed in terms of participants, multimorbidity definitions, follow-up duration, and outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence indicates that multimorbidity predicts future functional decline, with greater decline in patients with higher numbers of conditions and greater disease severity. This review highlights the importance of considering physical functioning when designing interventions and systems of care for patients with multimorbidity, particularly for patients with higher numbers of conditions and greater disease severity.

A Sex-Specific MicroRNA-96/5-Hydroxytryptamine 1B Axis Influences Development of Pulmonary Hypertension

RATIONALE

Females are predisposed to pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH); evidence suggests that serotonin, mutations in the bone morphogenetic protein receptor (BMPR) II gene, and estrogens influence development of PAH. The 5-hydroxytryptamine 1B receptor (5-HT1BR) mediates human pulmonary artery smooth muscle cell (hPASMC) proliferation.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine whether selected microRNAs (miRNAs) expressed in PASMCs are influenced by sex, BMPR-II mutations, and estrogens, and contribute to PASMC proliferation in PAH.

METHODS

Expression levels of miRNAs targeting genes related to PAH, estrogen, and serotonin were determined by quantitative RT-PCR in hPASMCs and mouse PASMCs harboring a heterozygous mutation in BMPR-II (BMPR-II(R899X+/-) PASMCs). miRNA-96 targets 5-HT1BR and was selected for further investigation. miRNA target validation was confirmed by luciferase reporter assay. Precursor miRNA-96 was transfected into hPASMCs to examine effects on proliferation and 5-HT1BR expression. The effect of a miRNA-96 mimic on the development of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension in mice was also assessed.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

miRNA-96 expression was reduced in BMPR-II(R899X+/-) PASMCs from female mice and hPASMCs from female patients with PAH; this was associated with increased 5-HT1BR expression and serotonin-mediated proliferation. 5-HT1BR was validated as a target for miRNA-96. Transfection of precursor miRNA-96 into hPASMCs reduced 5-HT1BR expression and inhibited serotonin-induced proliferation. Restoration of miRNA-96 expression in pulmonary arteries in vivo via administration of an miRNA-96 mimic reduced the development of hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension in the mouse.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased 5-HT1BR expression may be a consequence of decreased miRNA-96 expression in female patient PASMCs, and this may contribute to the development of PAH.

Late onset variants in Fabry disease: Results in high risk population screenings in Argentina

Background

Screening for Fabry disease (FD) in high risk populations yields a significant number of individuals with novel, ultra rare genetic variants in the GLA gene, largely without classic manifestations of FD. These variants often have significant residual α-galactosidase A activity. The establishment of the pathogenic character of previously unknown or rare variants is challenging but necessary to guide therapeutic decisions.

Objectives

To present 2 cases of non-classical presentations of FD with renal involvement as well as to discuss the importance of high risk population screenings for FD.

Results

Our patients with non-classical variants were diagnosed through FD screenings in dialysis units. However, organ damage was not limited to kidneys, since LVH, vertebrobasilar dolichoectasia and cornea verticillata were also present. Lyso-Gb3 concentrations in plasma were in the pathologic range, compatible with late onset FD. Structural studies and in silico analysis of p.(Cys174Gly) and p.(Arg363His), employing different tools, suggest that enzyme destabilization and possibly aggregation could play a role in organ damage.

Conclusions

Screening programs for FD in high risk populations are important as FD is a treatable multisystemic disease which is frequently overlooked in patients who present without classical manifestations.

Sex affects bone morphogenetic protein type II receptor signaling in pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells

RATIONALE

Major pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) registries report a greater incidence of PAH in women; mutations in the bone morphogenic protein type II receptor (BMPR-II) occur in approximately 80% of patients with heritable PAH (hPAH).

OBJECTIVES

We addressed the hypothesis that women may be predisposed to PAH due to normally reduced basal BMPR-II signaling in human pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells (hPASMCs).

METHODS

We examined the BMPR-II signaling pathway in hPASMCs derived from men and women with no underlying cardiovascular disease (non-PAH hPASMCs). We also determined the development of pulmonary hypertension in male and female mice deficient in Smad1.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Platelet-derived growth factor, estrogen, and serotonin induced proliferation only in non-PAH female hPASMCs. Female non-PAH hPASMCs exhibited reduced messenger RNA and protein expression of BMPR-II, the signaling intermediary Smad1, and the downstream genes, inhibitors of DNA binding proteins, Id1 and Id3. Induction of phospho-Smad1/5/8 and Id protein by BMP4 was also reduced in female hPASMCs. BMP4 induced proliferation in female, but not male, hPASMCs. However, small interfering RNA silencing of Smad1 invoked proliferative responses to BMP4 in male hPASMCs. In male hPASMCs, estrogen decreased messenger RNA and protein expression of Id genes. The estrogen metabolite 4-hydroxyestradiol decreased phospho-Smad1/5/8 and Id expression in female hPASMCs while increasing these in males commensurate with a decreased proliferative effect in male hPASMCs. Female Smad1(+/-) mice developed pulmonary hypertension (reversed by ovariectomy).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that estrogen-driven suppression of BMPR-II signaling in non-PAH hPASMCs derived from women contributes to a pro-proliferative phenotype in hPASMCs that may predispose women to PAH.

Umbilical blood flow patterns directly after birth before delayed cord clamping

BACKGROUND

Delayed umbilical cord clamping (DCC) affects the cardiopulmonary transition and blood volume in neonates immediately after birth. However, little is known of blood flow in the umbilical vessels immediately after birth during DCC. The objective is to describe the duration and patterns of blood flow through the umbilical vessels during DCC.

METHODS

Arterial and venous umbilical blood flow was measured during DCC using Doppler ultrasound in uncomplicated term vaginal deliveries. Immediately after birth, the probe was placed in the middle of the umbilical cord, pattern and duration of flow in vein and arteries were evaluated until cord clamping.

RESULTS

Thirty infants were studied. Venous flow: In 10% no flow was present, in 57% flow stopped at 4:34 (3:03-7:31) (median (IQR) min:sec) after birth, before the cord was clamped. In 33%, flow continued until cord clamping at 5:13 (2:56-9:15) min:sec. Initially, venous flow was intermittent, increasing markedly during large breaths or stopping and reversing during crying, but then became continuous. Arterial flow: In 17% no flow was present, in 40% flow stopped at 4:22 (2:29-7:17) min:sec, while cord pulsations were still palpable. In 43% flow continued until the cord was clamped at 5:16 (3:32-10:10) min:sec. Arterial flow was pulsatile, unidirectional towards placenta or bidirectional to/from placenta. In 40% flow became continuous towards placenta later on.

CONCLUSIONS

During delayed umbilical cord clamping, venous and arterial umbilical flow occurs for longer than previously described. Net placental transfusion is probably the result of several factors of which breathing could play a major role. Umbilical flow is unrelated to cessation of pulsations.

The development of the PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments) criteria

Background

Whilst multimorbidity is more prevalent with increasing age, approximately 30% of middle-aged adults (45–64 years) are also affected. Several prescribing criteria have been developed to optimise medication use in older people (≥65 years) with little focus on potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in middle-aged adults. We have developed a set of explicit prescribing criteria called PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People’s Treatments) which may be applied to prescribing datasets to determine the prevalence of PIP in this age-group.

Methods

A literature search was conducted to identify published prescribing criteria for all age groups, with the Project Steering Group (convened for this study) adding further criteria for consideration, all of which were reviewed for relevance to middle-aged adults. These criteria underwent a two-round Delphi process, using an expert panel consisting of general practitioners, pharmacists and clinical pharmacologists from the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. Using web-based questionnaires, 17 panellists were asked to indicate their level of agreement with each criterion via a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly Disagree, 5 = Strongly Agree) to assess the applicability to middle-aged adults in the absence of clinical information. Criteria were accepted/rejected/revised dependent on the panel’s level of agreement using the median response/interquartile range and additional comments.

Results

Thirty-four criteria were rated in the first round of this exercise and consensus was achieved on 17 criteria which were accepted into the PROMPT criteria. Consensus was not reached on the remaining 17, and six criteria were removed following a review of the additional comments. The second round of this exercise focused on the remaining 11 criteria, some of which were revised following the first exercise. Five criteria were accepted from the second round, providing a final list of 22 criteria [gastro-intestinal system (n = 3), cardiovascular system (n = 4), respiratory system (n = 4), central nervous system (n = 6), infections (n = 1), endocrine system (n = 1), musculoskeletal system (n = 2), duplicates (n = 1)].

Conclusions

PROMPT is the first set of prescribing criteria developed for use in middle-aged adults. The utility of these criteria will be tested in future studies using prescribing datasets.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension: basis of sex differences in incidence and treatment response

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a complex disease characterized by elevated pulmonary arterial pressure, pulmonary vascular remodelling and occlusive pulmonary vascular lesions, leading to right heart failure. Evidence from recent epidemiological studies suggests the influence of gender on the development of PAH with an approximate female to male ratio of 4:1, depending on the underlying disease pathology. Overall, the therapeutic strategy for PAH remains suboptimal with poor survival rates observed in both genders. Endogenous sex hormones, in particular 17β oestradiol and its metabolites, have been implicated in the development of the disease; however, the influence of sex hormones on the underlying pathobiology remains controversial. Further understanding of the influence of sex hormones on the normal and diseased pulmonary circulation will be critical to our understanding the pathology of PAH and future therapeutic strategies. In this review, we will discuss the influence of sex hormones on the development of PAH and address recent controversies.

First Report of Pseudoperonospora cubensis Causing Downy Mildew on Momordica balsamina and M. charantia in North Carolina

Momordica balsamina (balsam apple) and M. charantia L. (bitter melon/bitter gourd/balsam pear) commonly grow in the wild in Africa and Asia; bitter melon is also cultivated for food and medicinal purposes in Asia (1). In the United States, these cucurbits grow as weeds or ornamentals. Both species are found in southern states and bitter melon is also found in Pennsylvania and Connecticut (3). Cucurbit downy mildew (CDM), caused by the oomycete Pseudoperonospora cubensis, was observed on bitter melon and balsam apple between August and October of 2013 in six North Carolina sentinel plots belonging to the CDM ipmPIPE program (2). Plots were located at research stations in Johnston, Sampson, Lenoir, Henderson, Rowan, and Haywood counties, and contained six different commercial cucurbit species including cucumbers, melons, and squashes in addition to the Momordica spp. Leaves with symptoms typical of CDM were collected from the Momordica spp. and symptoms varied from irregular chlorotic lesions to circular lesions with chlorotic halos on the adaxial leaf surface. Sporulation on the abaxial side of the leaves was observed and a compound microscope revealed sporangiophores (180 to 200 μm height) bearing lemon-shaped, dark sporangia (20 to 35 × 10 to 20 μm diameter) with papilla on one end. Genomic DNA was extracted from lesions and regions of the NADH dehydrogynase subunit 1 (Nad1), NADH dehydrogynase subunit 5 (Nad5), and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) ribosomal RNA genes were amplified and sequenced (4). BLAST analysis revealed 100% identity to P. cubensis Nad1 (HQ636552.1, HQ636551.1), Nad5 (HQ636556.1), and ITS (HQ636491.1) sequences in GenBank. Sequences from a downy mildew isolate from each Momordica spp. were deposited in GenBank as accession nos. KJ496339 through 44. To further confirm host susceptibility, vein junctions on the abaxial leaf surface of five detached leaves of lab-grown balsam apple and bitter melon were either inoculated with a sporangia suspension (10 μl, 10⁴ sporangia/ml) of a P. cubensis isolate from Cucumis sativus ('Vlaspik' cucumber), or with water as a control. Inoculated leaves were placed in humidity chambers to promote infection and incubated using a 12-h light (21°C) and dark (18°C) cycle. Seven days post inoculation, CDM symptoms and sporulation were observed on inoculated balsam apple and bitter melon leaves. P. cubensis has been reported as a pathogen of both hosts in Iowa (5). To our knowledge, this is the first report of P. cubensis infecting these Momordica spp. in NC in the field. Identifying these Momordica spp. as hosts for P. cubensis is important since these cucurbits may serve as a source of CDM inoculum and potentially an overwintering mechanism for P. cubensis. Further research is needed to establish the role of non-commercial cucurbits in the yearly CDM epidemic, which will aid the efforts of the CDM ipmPIPE to predict disease outbreaks. References: (1) L. K. Bharathi and K. J. John. Momordica Genus in Asia-An Overview. Springer, New Delhi, India, 2013. (2) P. S. Ojiambo et al. Plant Health Prog. doi:10.1094/PHP-2011-0411-01-RV, 2011. (3) PLANTS Database. Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA. Retrieved from http://plants.usda.gov/ , 7 February 2014. (4) L. M. Quesada-Ocampo et al. Plant Dis. 96:1459, 2012. (5) USDA. Index of Plant Disease in the United States. Agricultural Handbook 165, 1960.

Developing an international register of clinical prediction rules for use in primary care: a descriptive analysis

PURPOSE

We describe the methodology used to create a register of clinical prediction rules relevant to primary care. We also summarize the rules included in the register according to various characteristics.

METHODS

To identify relevant articles, we searched the MEDLINE database (PubMed) for the years 1980 to 2009 and supplemented the results with searches of secondary sources (books on clinical prediction rules) and personal resources (eg, experts in the field). The rules described in relevant articles were classified according to their clinical domain, the stage of development, and the clinical setting in which they were studied.

RESULTS

Our search identified clinical prediction rules reported between 1965 and 2009. The largest share of rules (37.2%) were retrieved from PubMed. The number of published rules increased substantially over the study decades. We included 745 articles in the register; many contained more than 1 clinical prediction rule study (eg, both a derivation study and a validation study), resulting in 989 individual studies. In all, 434 unique rules had gone through derivation; however, only 54.8% had been validated and merely 2.8% had undergone analysis of their impact on either the process or outcome of clinical care. The rules most commonly pertained to cardiovascular disease, respiratory, and musculoskeletal conditions. They had most often been studied in the primary care or emergency department settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Many clinical prediction rules have been derived, but only about half have been validated and few have been assessed for clinical impact. This lack of thorough evaluation for many rules makes it difficult to retrieve and identify those that are ready for use at the point of patient care. We plan to develop an international web-based register of clinical prediction rules and computer-based clinical decision support systems.

Clinical prediction rules in practice: review of clinical guidelines and survey of GPs

BACKGROUND

The publication of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) studies has risen significantly. It is unclear if this reflects increasing usage of these tools in clinical practice or how this may vary across clinical areas.

AIM

To review clinical guidelines in selected areas and survey GPs in order to explore CPR usefulness in the opinion of experts and use at the point of care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A review of clinical guidelines and survey of UK GPs.

METHOD

Clinical guidelines in eight clinical domains with published CPRs were reviewed for recommendations to use CPRs including primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and stroke, diabetes mellitus, fracture risk assessment in osteoporosis, lower limb fractures, breast cancer, depression, and acute infections in childhood. An online survey of 401 UK GPs was also conducted.

RESULTS

Guideline review: Of 7637 records screened by title and/or abstract, 243 clinical guidelines met inclusion criteria. CPRs were most commonly recommended in guidelines regarding primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (67%) and depression (67%). There was little consensus across various clinical guidelines as to which CPR to use preferentially.

SURVEY

Of 401 responders to the GP survey, most were aware of and applied named CPRs in the clinical areas of cardiovascular disease and depression. The commonest reasons for using CPRs were to guide management and conform to local policy requirements.

CONCLUSION

GPs use CPRs to guide management but also to comply with local policy requirements. Future research could focus on which clinical areas clinicians would most benefit from CPRs and promoting the use of robust, externally validated CPRs.

The epidemiology of malpractice claims in primary care: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this systematic review was to examine the epidemiology of malpractice claims in primary care.

DESIGN

A computerised systematic literature search was conducted. Studies were included if they reported original data (≥10 cases) pertinent to malpractice claims, were based in primary care and were published in the English language. Data were synthesised using a narrative approach.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Malpractice claimants.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Malpractice claim (defined as a written demand for compensation for medical injury). We recorded: medical misadventure cited in claims, missed/delayed diagnoses cited in claims, outcome of claims, prevalence of claims and compensation awarded to claimants.

RESULTS

Of the 7152 articles retrieved by electronic search, a total of 34 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the narrative analysis. Twenty-eight studies presented data from medical indemnity malpractice claims databases and six studies presented survey data. Fifteen studies were based in the USA, nine in the UK, seven in Australia, one in Canada and two in France. The commonest medical misadventure resulting in claims was failure to or delay in diagnosis, which represented 26-63% of all claims across included studies. Common missed or delayed diagnoses included cancer and myocardial infarction in adults and meningitis in children. Medication error represented the second commonest domain representing 5.6-20% of all claims across included studies. The prevalence of malpractice claims in primary care varied across countries. In the USA and Australia when compared with other clinical disciplines, general practice ranked in the top five specialties accounting for the most claims, representing 7.6-20% of all claims. However, the majority of claims were successfully defended.

CONCLUSIONS

This review of malpractice claims in primary care highlights diagnosis and medication error as areas to be prioritised in developing educational strategies and risk management systems.