A risk prediction model for the development of subsequent primary melanoma in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for follow-up of patients with melanoma are based on limited evidence.

OBJECTIVES

To guide skin surveillance, we developed a risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using demographic, phenotypical, histopathological, sun exposure and genomic risk factors.

METHODS

Using Cox regression frailty models, we analysed data for 2613 primary melanomas from 1266 patients recruited to the population-based Genes, Environment and Melanoma study in New South Wales, Australia, with a median of 14 years' follow-up via the cancer registry. Discrimination and calibration were assessed.

RESULTS

The median time to diagnosis of a subsequent primary melanoma decreased with each new primary melanoma. The final model included 12 risk factors. Harrell's C-statistic was 0·73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·68-0·77], 0·65 (95% CI 0·62-0·68) and 0·65 (95% CI 0·61-0·69) for predicting second, third and fourth primary melanomas, respectively. The risk of a subsequent primary melanoma was 4·75 times higher (95% CI 3·87-5·82) for the highest vs. the lowest quintile of the risk score. The mean absolute risk of a subsequent primary melanoma within 5 years was 8·0 ± SD 4.1% after the first primary melanoma, and 46·8 ± 15·0% after the second, but varied substantially by risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of developing a subsequent primary melanoma varies considerably between individuals and is particularly high for those with two or more primary melanomas. The risk prediction model and its associated nomograms enable estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanoma, on the basis of on an individual's risk factors, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate risk and provide patient education. What's already known about this topic? Current guidelines for the frequency and length of follow-up to detect new primary melanomas in patients with one or more previous primary melanomas are based on limited evidence. People with one or more primary melanomas have, on average, a higher risk of developing another primary invasive melanoma, compared with the general population, but an accurate way of estimating individual risk is needed. What does this study add? We provide a comprehensive risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using data from 1266 participants with melanoma (2613 primary melanomas), over a median 14 years' follow-up. The model includes 12 risk factors comprising demographic, phenotypical, histopathological and genomic factors, and sun exposure. It enables estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanomas, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate individual risk and provide patient education.

Methamphetamine-induced choreoathetosis: A case report

We describe the case of a 23-year-old male with a past psychiatric history of Obsessive Compulsive disorder, Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Cannabis Use Disorder, and a reported history of Bipolar II Disorder and ADHD, and no past medical history, who presented to the hospital for a psychiatric evaluation of erractic behavior. Per his family's report, the patient has not been attending to his activities of daily living and has had poor sleep and significant weight loss for the past month. In the days preceding his presentation, he has experienced worsening irritability and rapid speech, and has been responding to internal stimuli and displaying odd repetitive movements of his extremities. On interview, the patient reported non-compliance to his prescribed Lithium and Paroxetine for the past three months. He also noted recently smoking methamphtamine on a daily basis for the past month and intermittently abusing cannabis, benzodiazepines and cocaine. His urine drug screen was positive for cannabinoids and amphetamines and the rest of his medical workup was within normal limits. On physical exam, he exhibited involuntary writhing and twisting movements of his extremities. An atypical antipschotic was prescribed, after which his choreoathetotic movements resolved within 24 hours. The purpose of this poster is to highlight the possibility of developing chorea as a result of methamphetamine use, given the rarity of such cases, and to discuss whether the resolution of his neurological symptoms were a result of antipsychotic administration or were simply due to the natural course of methamphetamine discontinuation during hospitalization.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

93 Telemedicine Implementation in Croydon Care Homes

Background

Croydon has one of the largest numbers of care homes of any London borough. Following the success of telemedicine in the Airedale and Partners NHS vanguard, care home telemedicine has been commissioned in Croydon.

Despite encouraging results for some individual services, the formal evidence base for telemedicine remains ambiguous. We aim to further our understanding of the use, perceptions and implementation of the telemedicine service in the care homes of Croydon.

Methods

Results are being collected from care homes including:Usage (e.g. time of day, patient/caller intention)Outcomes (e.g. GP calls, conveyances to hospital)

In addition, a survey of GPs and care homes was completed, with redistribution of the survey planned six months after introduction of telemedicine.

Results

In the first four months data of the service, 42 care homes have implemented telemedicine since Jan 2019. For these care homes, the results show a reduction in ambulance call outs of 7% and a reduction in conveyances to hospital of 4%. In the care homes that have been using the service on a regular basis, the reduction in call outs and conveyances is considerably bigger. There is also increasing use of the telemedicine service in preference to calling a GP. This data will become more robust and analysed further with the ongoing use of the service.

Initial survey results highlight the varied opinions of telemedicine, including perceived change in workload and quality of care, and will be repeated in August 2019 to assess any change in perceptions.

Discussion

The emerging data shows encouraging results for those care homes that are high users of telemedicine service. However, there is significant time and resource involved to ensure uptake and correct use of telemedicine in care homes. With the survey, we have uncovered a varied understanding and perception of telemedicine across the Croydon system prior to its implementation in care homes and will discover if these perceptions change following its increasing use.

We will present the successes and challenges to the implementation of the telemedicine service in care homes so far, then discuss the opportunities for care home telemedicine in Croydon for the future.

97 Complexity In Croydon

Introduction

The Complex Care Support Team (CCST) are a newly-formed, integrated service, caring for Croydon residents when existing services decide additional multidisciplinary team input is required.

There is no single definition of healthcare complexity. Most cases encountered by the team have involved many different services and professionals. The team have found that by forging relationships and co-ordinating care across organisational boundaries, some of the “complexities” can be mitigated. We aim to develop our understanding of the needs of this population and the underlying drivers for complexity in Croydon.

Methods

The records on EMIS, CERNER and ePJS were reviewed from the inaugural two months of the service, for:Rockwood Frailty ScoreNumber of medicationsNumber of long-term conditionsED attendances or admissions to hospital over the preceding year.

After team discussion on every case, underlying causes of complexity were assigned to four groups: medical, psychological, social and systems failure.

Results

Of the 57 people accepted by CCST over 2 months, 39 required reviewing in person. 5 records were not completed, so 34 cases were included for evaluation. The age range of this cohort was 49-92, with 17 male and 17 female. Results revealed significant frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy. 91% had two or more underlying drivers for complexity, with the largest underlying driver being systems failure, in 85% of cases.

Conclusions

This work improves our understanding of the needs of the population deemed the most “complex” in Croydon. The likelihood of multiple underlying drivers for complexity was high, highlighting how complex health issues are likely to span both professional and organisational boundaries. This can in itself be a significant underlying driver for complexity, illustrated here as “systems failure”. In developing current and future services, this work reinforces the vital benefits of multidisciplinary and cross-organisational working currently occurring in CCST.

Massard Prairie Restoration and Soil Microbiome Succession

We have initially sequenced soil microbial DNA from 4 restored and 3 virgin tallgrass prairie soil samples from Ben Geren Park and Massard Prairie (Fort Smith, AR), respectively. As expected, the soil microbiomes are distinct, with several lineages of nitrogen-fixing bacteria more common in virgin tallgrass prairie. However, we predict that as restoration of tallgrass prairie in Ben Geren Park progresses, the soil microbiome of restored prairie will more closely mirror those of the virgin prairie.

Modelling of breech strike risk and protective efficacy of mulesing in adult Merino sheep

Context Mulesing provides a high degree of protection against beech strike, but wool producers need to be able to predict the level of risk of flystrike if they cease mulesing. Aims To use data from trials of mulesed and unmulesed sheep to estimate the distribution of adult breech scores (wrinkle, breech cover and dag) from mean flock values, and use those scores to estimate the risk of breech strike in Merino sheep flocks. Methods Breech scores and breech strike from flocks with comparable mulesed and unmulesed sheep were examined using logistic functions to relate breech scores in mulesed sheep to those in unmulesed sheep, and to estimate the risk of breech strike in sheep for any given combination of breech scores. Key results Functions are given to estimate whole flock adult breech wrinkle and breech cover using combinations of the breech traits that are available. Unmulesed Merino sheep have a 6-fold increased risk of breech strike compared with mulesed sheep under the same conditions. There were increased relative risks of breech strike of 2.0 for each unit increase in dag score, 2.2 for each unit increase in breech wrinkle score and 1.7 for each unit increase in breech cover score. Mulesing reduced each of these risk factors, but had an additional 3.2-fold benefit independent of these factors. Adult breech wrinkle was most reliably estimated from neck wrinkle or from marking breech wrinkle (before mulesing). Breech cover was estimated from face cover, or from marking breech cover. The risk of breech strike if adult sheep were to be left unmulesed in a commercial flock was predicted using a centred log ratio transformation to estimate the distribution of dag scores in the unmulesed sheep, given the actual distribution in the mulesed flock. If the distribution was not known, then the mean dag score of the mulesed sheep could be used to estimate the distribution of dag scores in unmulesed sheep using a 2/3 power function to transform the mean dag score. Conclusions A flock of unmulesed sheep would need to lower breech wrinkle, breech cover and dag scores by 0.5 for each score to achieve a comparable level of risk of breech strike in mulesed sheep. Implications The use of the model will allow wool producers to selectively breed for sheep with lower risk of breech strike, while continuing to mules the sheep as long as it is necessary to do so. They will be able to estimate what the risk of strike would be if they cease mulesing, due to the proportion of sheep with potentially high wrinkle score, high breech cover or high dag scores at any stage of their breeding program.

Evaluation of VIDAS Listeria monocytogenes II (LMO2) Immunoassay Method for the Detection of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods: Collaborative Study

A multilaboratory study was conducted to compare the VIDAS®Listeria monocytogenes II (LMO2) immunoassay and the standard cultural methods for the detection of Listeria monocytogenes in foods. Five food types—vanilla ice cream, brie cheese, cooked roast beef, frozen green beans, and frozen tilapia fish—at 3 levels were analyzed by each method. A total of 26 laboratories representing government and industry participated. In this study, 1404 test portions were analyzed of which 1152 were used in the statistical analysis. There were 448 positive by the VIDAS LMO2 assay and 457 positive by the standard culture methods. A χ2 analysis of each of the 5 food types, at the 3 inoculation levels tested, was performed. The resulting χ2 value, 0.36, indicates that overall, there are no statistical differences between the VIDAS LMO2 assay and the standard methods at the 5% level of significance.

Evaluation of the VIDAS® Listeria (LIS) Immunoassay for the Detection of Listeria in Foods Using Demi-Fraser and Fraser Enrichment Broths, as Modification of AOAC Official Method 999.06 (AOAC Official Method 2004.06)

A multilaboratory study was conducted to compare the VIDAS® LIS immunoassay with the standard cultural methods for the detection of Listeria in foods using an enrichment modification of AOAC Official Method 999.06. The modified enrichment protocol was implemented to harmonize the VIDAS LIS assay with the VIDAS LMO2 assay. Five food types—brie cheese, vanilla ice cream, frozen green beans, frozen raw tilapia fish, and cooked roast beef—at 3 inoculation levels, were analyzed by each method. A total of 15 laboratories representing government and industry participated. In this study, 1206 test portions were tested, of which 1170 were used in the statistical analysis. There were 433 positive by the VIDAS LIS assay and 396 positive by the standard culture methods. A Chi-square analysis of each of the 5 food types, at the 3 inoculation levels tested, was performed. The resulting average Chi square analysis, 0.42, indicated that, overall, there are no statistical differences between the VIDAS LIS assay and the standard methods at the 5% level of significance.

Evaluation of VIDAS® Salmonella (SLM) Immunoassay Method with Rappaport-Vassiliadis (RV) Medium for Detection of Salmonella in Foods: Collaborative Study

A collaborative study was conducted to compare the VIDAS Salmonella (SLM) with Rappaport-Vassiliadis (RV) method for detection of Salmonella in foods to the current standard method presented in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM) and the culture method presented in AOAC's Official Methods of Analysis. The VIDAS SLM with RV method uses tetrathionate broth in combination with RV medium in place of selenite cystine broth for selective enrichment, thereby eliminating the hazardous waste issue for laboratories. Twenty five laboratories participated in the evaluation, each testing one or more of 8 test products: nonfat dry milk, dried egg, soy flour, lactic casein, milk chocolate, raw ground pork, raw ground turkey, and raw peeled shrimp. Results of the study showed no significant differences in the numbers of confirmed positive samples with the VIDAS SLM with RV procedure and the BAM/AOAC culture procedure. The VIDAS SLM with RV method was effective for rapid detection of Salmonella in foods. It is recommended that AOAC INTERNATIONAL modify the VIDAS Salmonella SLM procedure to include the RV method.

Method Extension Study to Validate Applicability of AOAC Official Method 996.14 Assurance® Polyclonal Enzyme Immunoassay for Detection of Listeria monocytogenes and Related Listeria spp. from Environmental Surfaces: Collaborative Study

Test portions from 3 environmental surface types, representative of typical surfaces found in a food production facility, were analyzed by the Assurance®Listeria Polyclonal Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) culture method for Listeria monocytogenes and related Listeria species. In all cases, naturally contaminated environmental test samples were collected from an actual food production facility by sponge or swab. Test samples from concrete surfaces were collected by both swab and sponge; sponge test samples were collected from rubber surfaces, and swabs were used to sample steel surfaces. Test portions from each surface type were simultaneously analyzed by both methods. A total of 23 collaborators, representing government agencies, as well as private industry in both the United States and Canada, participated in the study. During this study, a total of 550 test portions and controls was analyzed and confirmed, of which 207 were positive and 336 were negative by both methods. Six test portions were positive by culture, but negative by the EIA. Three test portions were negative by culture, but positive by the EIA. Two test portions were negative by EIA and by culture, but confirmed positive when EIA enrichment broths were subcultured to selective agars. The data reported here indicate that the Assurance®Listeria EIA method and the USDA/FSIS culture method are statistically equivalent for detection of L. monocytogenes and related Listeria species from environmental surfaces taken by sponges or swabs.

Visual Immunoprecipitate Assay Eight Hour Method for Detection of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Raw and Cooked Beef (Modification of AOAC Official Method 996.09): Collaborative Study

AOAC Official Method 996.09, Visual Immunoprecipitate Assay (VIP®) for Escherichia coli O157:H7, was modified to incorporate a new enrichment protocol using BioControl EHEC8™ medium for testing raw and cooked beef. Foods were tested by VIP assay and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) enrichment procedure and the FDA Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM) isolation and confirmation techniques. A total of 15 collaborators participated. Raw and cooked ground beef were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 at 2 different levels: a high level, where predominantly positive results were expect d, and a low level where fractional recovery was anticipated. Collaborators tested 396 test portions and controls by both methods, for a total of 792 test portions. Of the 396 paired test portions, 75 were positive and 230 were negative by both the VIP and culture methods. Eleven test portions were presumptively positive by VIP and could not be confirmed culturally; 32 were negative by VIP, but confirmed positive by culture; and 65 were negative by the culture method, but confirmed positive by the VIP method. There was no statistical difference between results obtained with the VIP for EHEC 8 h method and the culture method except for cooked beef, where the VIP had significantly higher recovery for one inoculation level.

Evaluation of VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella/VIDAS Salmonella Immunoassay Method for Detection of Salmonella in Selected Foods: Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS)/VIDAS Salmonella (SLM) immunoassay method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1266 of the 1440 samples. Of the 174 samples not in agreement, 69 were VIDAS ICS/SLM-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative and 105 were VIDAS ICS/SLM-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

Assurance® Enzyme Immunoassay Eight Hour Method for Detection of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Raw and Cooked Beef (Modification of AOAC Official Method 996.10): Collaborative Study

AOAC Official Method 996.10, Assurance® Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) for Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EHEC), was modified to incorporate a new enrichment protocol using BioControl EHEC8™ medium for testing raw and cooked beef. Foods were tested by EIA and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) enrichment conditions and the FDA Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM) isolation and confirmation techniques. A total of 14 collaborators participated. Raw and cooked ground beef were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 at 2 different levels: a high level where predominantly positive results were expected, and a low level where fractional recovery was anticipated. Collaborators tested 378 test portions and controls by both the 8 h EIA and the USDA/FSIS enrichment methods, for a total of 756 test portions. Of the 378 paired test portions, 75 were positive and 212 were negative by both methods. Thirteen test portions were presumptively positive by EIA and could not be confirmed culturally; 30 were negative by EIA, but confirmed positive by culture; and 65 were negative by the culture method, but confirmed positive by the EIA method. There was no statistical difference between results obtained with the Assurance EIA for EHEC 8 h method and the culture method for raw ground beef. The Assurance EIA had a significantly higher recovery for cooked beef.

Evaluation of VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella Assay Plus Selective Plate Method (Hektoen Enteric, Bismuth Sulfite, Salmonella Identification) for Detection of Salmonella in Selected Foods: Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS) plus selective plate method (Hektoen enteric, bismuth sulfite, Salmonella identification) method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1283 of the 1440 test samples. Of the 157 test samples not in agreement, 82 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative, and 75 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

Method Extension Study to Validate Applicability of AOAC Official Method 997.03 Visual Immunoprecipitate Assay (VIP®) for Listeria monocytogenes and Related Listeria spp. from Environmental Surfaces: Collaborative Study

Test portions from 3 environmental surface types, representative of typical surfaces found in a food production facility, were analyzed by the Visual Immunoprecipitate assay (VIP®) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA/FSIS) culture method for Listeria monocytogenes and related Listeria species. In all cases, naturally contaminated environmental test samples were collected from an actual food production facility by sponge or swab. Test samples from concrete surfaces were collected by both swab and sponge; sponge test samples were collected from rubber surfaces, and swabs were used to sample steel surfaces. Test portions from each surface type were simultaneously analyzed by both methods. A total of 27 laboratories, representing government agencies as well as private industry in both the United States and Canada, participated in the study. During this study, a total of 615 test portions and controls was analyzed and confirmed, of which 227 were positive and 378 were negative by both methods. Nine test portions were positive by culture, but negative by the VIP. Five test portions were negative by culture, but positive by the VIP. Four test portions were negative by VIP and by culture, but confirmed positive when VIP enrichment broths were subcultured to selective agars. The data reported here indicate that the VIP method and the USDA/FSIS culture method are statistically equivalent for detection of L. monocytogenes and related Listeria species from environmental surfaces taken by sponges or swabs.

Salmonella in Selected Foods by VIDAS® Immuno-Concentration Salmonella Plus Selective Plate Method (Hektoen Enteric, Xylose Lysine Desoxycholate, Bismuth Sulfite): Collaborative Study

The VIDAS Immuno-concentration Salmonella (ICS) plus selective plate method (Hektoen enteric, xylose lysine desoxycholate, bismuth sulfite) method for the detection of Salmonella was compared to the Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM)/AOAC culture method in a collaborative study. Thirty-two laboratories participated in the evaluation. Each laboratory tested one or more of the 6 test products: milk chocolate, nonfat dry milk, dried whole egg, soy flour, ground black pepper, and ground raw turkey. The 2 methods were in agreement for 1297 of the 1455 samples. Of the 158 samples not in agreement, 82 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-positive and BAM/AOAC-negative, and 76 were VIDAS ICS plus selective plate-negative and BAM/AOAC-positive.

Equivalence of Assurance® Gold Enzyme Immunoassay for Visual or Instrumental Detection of Motile and Nonmotile Salmonella in All Foods to AOAC Culture Method: Collaborative Study

Six foods representative of a wide variety of processed, dried powder processed, and raw food types were analyzed by the Assurance® Gold Salmonella Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) and AOAC INTERNATIONAL culture method. Paired samples of each food type were simultaneously analyzed; one sample by the Assurance method and one by the AOAC culture method. The results for Assurance method were read visually and instrumentally with a microplate reader. A total of 24 laboratories representing federal government agencies and private industry, in the United States and Canada, participated in this collaborative study. Food types were inoculated with species of Salmonella with the exception of raw ground chicken, which was naturally contaminated. No statistical differences (p < 0.05) were observed between Assurance Gold Salmonella EIA with either visual or instrumental interpretation and the AOAC culture method for any inoculation level of any food type or naturally contaminated food. The Assurance visual and instrumental options of reading sample reactions produced the same results for 1277 of the 1296 sample and controls analyzed.

Randomised controlled trial of internet-delivered cognitive behaviour therapy for clinical depression and/or anxiety in cancer survivors (iCanADAPT Early)

PURPOSE

To evaluate internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) on clinical depression and/or anxiety, distress, fear of cancer recurrence, and quality of life in cancer survivors.

METHODS

Random assignation of 114 participants to iCBT or treatment-as-usual (TAU). The clinician-supervised iCBT program (iCanADAPT Early) consisted of eight lessons over 16 weeks. Self-report questionnaires occurred at baseline, midpoint, and posttreatment for both groups with 3-month follow-up for iCBT participants. A mixed modelling approach to compare groups occurred.

RESULTS

iCBT was superior to TAU on all outcome measures at posttreatment. Compared with TAU, the iCBT group showed a significant decrease over time in anxiety and depression symptoms (primary outcome, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Hedges g = 1.51). Additionally the iCBT group had significantly lower general distress (Kessler-10, g = 1.56), fear of cancer recurrence (Fear of Cancer Recurrence Inventory, g = 0.39), and significantly higher quality of life (Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General, g = 0.74) at posttreatment compared with the TAU group. High adherence and satisfaction were found for iCBT with low clinician time.

CONCLUSION

Clinician-supervised iCBT has significant benefits for cancer survivors with clinical depression and anxiety disorders.