Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

BACKGROUND & METHODS

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse.

METHODS

Multiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Spearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.

Interim analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening and survival in 4,087 veterans diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2010

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Background: The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is the largest provider of liver disease care in the US. From 2000-2007, there was a 5-fold increase in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among Veterans. The aim of the VOCAL group is to study outcomes and cost of Veterans diagnosed with cirrhosis and HCC from 2008-2010. Methods: The VA Corporate Data Warehouse was queried to identify all patients with ICD9 codes for HCC (155.0, 155.2) and cirrhosis (571.2, 571.5, 571.6). Chart abstraction was performed for each HCC patient to determine tumor characteristics, BCLC stage, and eligibility for transplantation. Results: This is an interim analysis of the first 4087 of 7,111 patients with HCC. HCC was confirmed in 3,207/4,087 (78%). Of these 3,207 patients, 778 (24%) were managed outside the VHA and 156 (6%) were diagnosed prior to 2008. Thus, 2,323 patients were analyzed. Median age was 60y (38-91). Males comprised 99% of the cohort; 61% were white, 24% were black, and 0.5% were Asian. Etiologies of cirrhosis were hepatitis C (HCV) (27%), alcohol-related (11%), HCV+alcohol (49%), hepatitis B (HBV) (9%), and other (metabolic, NASH) (2%). 63 (3%) were HIV-infected. Cirrhosis was coded in 83% (1918) prior to HCC diagnosis. Of cirrhotics, 11% (248) were optimally screened and 14% (335) were near-optimally screened; 75% of HCC were diagnosed incidentally or due to symptoms. AJCC stage was I/II/IIIA/IIIB/IIIC/IVA/IVB in 42/23/10/13/1/4/7%, respectively. 963 (41%) of patients were within Milan Criteria. BCLC staging was 0/A/B/C/D in 8/39/27/13/13%, respectively. Median OS was 400d and 1214/857/404/163/107d in BCLC 0/A/B/C/D, respectively. In multivariate survival model, age, the presence of ascites, serum albumin, serum bilirubin, serum sodium, CirCom score, Charlson-Deyo index, number of tumors, largest tumor size, and total tumor size were all statistically significantly predictive of survival. Conclusions: ICD9 codes for HCC have a PPV of ~80% for identifying true HCC cases in the CDW. Approximately 1/4 of patients received screening within AASLD 2010 guidelines. The majority of Veterans diagnosed with HCC present with intermediate to advanced disease with median survival 4.5-9.2 months.

New frontier in liver cancer treatment: oncolytic viral therapy

Oncolytic viruses and active immunotherapeutics have complementary mechanisms of action (MOA) that are both self amplifying in tumors, yet the impact of dose on subject outcome is unclear. JX-594 (Pexa-Vec) is an oncolytic and immunotherapeutic vaccinia virus. To determine the optimal JX-594 dose in subjects with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we conducted a randomized phase 2 dose-finding trial (n 5 30). Radiologists infused low-or high-dose JX-594 into liver tumors (days 1, 15 and 29); infusions resulted in acute detectable intravascular JX-594 genomes. Objective intrahepatic Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) (15%) and Choi (62%) response rates and intrahepatic disease control (50%) were equivalent in injected and distant noninjected tumors at both doses. JX-594 replication and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) expression preceded the induction of anticancer immunity. In contrast to tumor response rate and immune endpoints, subject survival duration was significantly related to dose (median survival of 14.1 months compared to 6.7 months on the high and low dose, respectively; hazard ratio 0.39; P = 0.020). JX-594 demonstrated oncolytic and immunotherapy MOA, tumor responses and dose-related survival in individuals with HCC.

EMR-linked cancer tracker facilitates lung and liver cancer care

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Background: VA Connecticut Healthcare System has developed a web-based, EMR-linked Cancer Care Tracking System (CCTS) to facilitate tracking and follow-up of patients with imaging abnormalities concerning for lung or liver cancer. The tracker was developed to facilitate the efforts of a multidisciplinary team at the center of which is a cancer navigator. Methods: CCTS was first envisioned in 2007 when VACT hired a care navigator and implemented a radiology coding system to identify potential cancers. This created the need for a tool to process abnormal images and track the clinical steps required to reach a definitive diagnosis and treatment plan. CCTS was initially used for lung cancers and was expanded to track hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 2009 with additional funding. In addition to case discovery, it offers easy access to patient information with live links to the VA EMR, a surveillance feature, and scheduling, alerting, and reporting functions. In 2011, the system was enhanced with a natural language processing (NLP) program that automatically identifies radiology reports describing potentially malignant lung or liver lesions. Results: CCTS has been in daily operation since February 2010, with 1,778 patients and 2,503 patients tracked in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Addition of NLP technology significantly increases the accuracy of identification of patients with lung or liver nodules. The NLP system identified 21% of all new cases with potential malignancies whose management could have been delayed through coding omissions or errors. Benefits of CCTS and our cancer care coordination program have included a decrease of 25 days in the time from abnormal image to treatment of lung cancer, a significant increase in the diagnosis of stage I/II lung cancers from 32% to 48%, and an increase in the incidence of liver cancer from 1% to 5% of all cancers at VACT. Conclusions: A web-based, EMR-linked cancer care tracking system (CCTS) improves cancer detection, prevents loss to follow-up, provides a safety net for radiology coding omissions or errors, and improves provider efficiency. CCTS is an innovative tool to support multidisciplinary cancer care and has broad applicability to any electronic medical record.

Systemic therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma

Many potential systemic therapies are being investigated for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The incidence of this malignancy is rising sharply and the vast majority of patients present at advanced stages. Although the earlier dismal results with cytotoxic chemotherapies made way for the development of locoregional therapies that provided improved overall survival, truly personalized therapy will require the selection of phenotypically similar stages of disease and populations, an understanding of the complex molecular and genetic pathways leading to HCC, and a keen understanding of the pathobiology of cirrhosis. Only then will we understand how to offer a particular patient at a specific stage of disease the appropriate therapy to truly prolong survival.

High incidence of cholesterol gallstone disease in type 1 Gaucher disease: characterizing the biliary phenotype of type 1 Gaucher disease

BACKGROUND

In Gaucher disease (GD), lysosomal glucocerebrosidase deficiency results in glucosylceramide accumulation in macrophage lysosomes. Hepatocytes do not accumulate glucosylceramide due in part to biliary secretion. Although gallstones (GS) occur in type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1), the chemical nature of stones, their association with metabolic parameters, and whether bile composition is altered are not understood. We assessed the prevalence of GS, their chemical composition, biliary lipids, and associated metabolic factors.

METHODS

The study cohort comprised 417 patients comprehensively evaluated for GD1 severity. Ascertainment of GS, fasting lipoprotein profile, and bile lipid analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of GS in GD1 was 32%. Compared with men, the prevalence of GS was higher in women, increasing from 4.2% and 11.8% at age 20-29 years to 71% and 60% at age >70 years, respectively. Patients with GS were more likely to be asplenic (p < 0.0001), older (p < 0.0001), have higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (p = 0.002), and more severe GD1 disease compared with those without GS. On multiple logistic regression analysis, factors associated with GS were age (p < 0.001), female sex (p = 0.03), and splenectomy (p = 0.005). Compared with the general population, prevalence of GS was approximately 5-fold higher. Bile lipid analyses revealed cholesterol stones in five patients and pigment stones in one. Bile lipid composition was abnormal and contained glucosylceramide.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results point to a metabolic syndrome in GD1 consisting of a propensity to cholesterol GS, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) associated with abnormal biliary lipid secretion.

The underrecognized progressive nature of N370S Gaucher disease and assessment of cancer risk in 403 patients

Mutations in GBA1 gene that encodes lysosomal glucocerebrosidase result in Type 1 Gaucher Disease (GD), the commonest lysosomal storage disorder; the most prevalent disease mutation is N370S. We investigated the heterogeneity and natural course of N370S GD in 403 patients. Demographic, clinical, and genetic characteristics of GD at presentation were examined in a cross-sectional study. In addition, the relative risk (RR) of cancer in patients compared with age-, sex-, and ethnic-group adjusted national rates of cancer was determined. Of the 403 patients, 54% of patients were homozygous (N370S/N370S) and 46% were compound heterozygous for the N370S mutation (N370S/other). The majority of N370S/N370S patients displayed a phenotype characterized by late onset, predominantly skeletal disease, whereas the majority of N370S/other patients displayed early onset, predominantly visceral/hematologic disease, P < 0.0001. There was a striking increase in lifetime risk of multiple myeloma in the entire cohort (RR 25, 95% CI 9.17-54.40), mostly confined to N370S homozygous patients. The risk of other hematologic malignancies (RR 3.45, 95% CI 1.49-6.79), and overall cancer risk (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.32-2.40) was increased. Homozygous N370S GD leads to adult-onset progressive skeletal disease with relative sparing of the viscera, a strikingly high risk of multiple myeloma, and an increased risk of other cancers. High incidence of gammopathy suggests an important role of the adaptive immune system in the development of GD. Adult patients with GD should be monitored for skeletal disease and cancers including multiple myeloma.

Impact of body mass index on graft failure and overall survival following liver transplant

GOALS

To assess the influence of body mass index (BMI) in the outcome of liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND

Body mass index appears to affect liver transplantation, independently of several risk factors.

STUDY

A review of the United Network for Organ Sharing database included 32 515 liver transplants from 1992 through 2000 with at least one follow-up visit, of which 26 920 had information for determining BMI. The overall impact of elevated BMI (>25), and the impact of increasingly elevated BMI (25-40+) on graft failure rates and overall survival rates are assessed using proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Controlling for follow-up time, age, gender, race, number of comorbidities, and status 1 designation, the impact of BMI on survival was mixed. The risk of death was elevated for patients with low BMI (<19) and BMI values of >/=40. Compared with patients with BMI of 19-22, those with BMI > 25 had a decreased likelihood of death. This decrease was seen among patients with BMI of 25-34.

CONCLUSION

BMI did not significantly affect rates of graft failure. Compared with patients with a BMI in the 'normal' range, those with moderately elevated BMI had decreased likelihood of death while patients with low BMI or extremely high BMI had increased likelihood of death.