Incremental utility of prognostic variables at discharge for risk prediction in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated chronic heart failure

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incremental prognostic utility of discharge serum creatinine (SCr), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and NT-proBNP and sodium concentrations in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND

Whether key prognostic variables at discharge provide incremental prognostic information beyond that provided by a model based on admission variables (referent) remains incompletely defined.

METHODS

The primary outcome was a composite of death, urgent heart transplantation, or ventricular assist device implantation at 1 year. The gain in predictive performance was assessed using C index, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Net Reclassification Improvement.

RESULTS

The best fit was obtained when discharge NT-proBNP was added to the referent model. No interaction between admission and discharge NT-proBNP was found. Discharge SCr, SBP, and sodium did not improve goodness-of-fit.

CONCLUSIONS

Admission and discharge NT-proBNP provide complementary and independent prognostic information; as such, they should be taken into account concurrently.

Prognostic role of atrial fibrillation in patients affected by chronic heart failure. Data from the MECKI score research group

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF). It is unclear whether AF has an independent prognostic role in HF. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic role of AF in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF).

METHODS

HF patients were followed in 17 centers for 3.15years (1.51-5.24). Study endpoints were the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart transplant (HTX) and all-cause death. Data analysis was performed considering the entire population and a 1 to 1 match between sinus rhythm (SR) and AF patients. Match process was done for age±5, gender, left ventricle EF±5, peakVO2±3 (ml/min/kg) and recruiting center.

RESULTS

A total of 3447 patients (SR=2882, AF=565) were included in the study. Considering the entire population, CV death and HTX occurred in 114 (20%) AF vs. 471 (16%) SR (p=0.026) and all-cause death in 130 (23%) AF vs. 554 (19.2%) SR patients (p=0.039). At univariable Cox analysis, AF was significantly related to prognosis. Applying a multivariable model based on all variables significant at univariable analysis (EF, peakVO2, ventilation/carbon dioxide relationship slope, sodium, kidney function, hemoglobin, beta-blockers and digoxin) AF was no longer associated with adverse outcomes. Matching procedure resulted in 338 couples. CV death and HTX occurred in 63 (18.6%) AF vs. 74 (21.9%) SR (p=0.293) and all-cause death in 71 (21%) AF vs. 80 (23.6%) SR (p=0.406), with no survival differences between groups.

CONCLUSION

In systolic HF AF is a marker of disease severity but not an independent prognostic indicator.

Risk of Kaposi sarcoma after solid-organ transplantation: multicenter study in 4,767 recipients in Italy, 1970-2006

Given the high prevalence of infection with human herpesvirus type 8, Italy is an area of utmost interest for studying Kaposi sarcoma (KS). We investigated the risk of KS in transplant recipients compared with the general population. A longitudinal study was performed from 1970 to 2006 in 4767 kidney, heart, liver, and lung transplant recipients from 7 Italian transplantation centers. The sample included 72.3% male patients with an overall patient median age of 48 years. Patient-years (PYs) at risk for KS were computed from 30 days posttransplantation to the date of KS, death, last follow-up, or study closure (December 31, 2007). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals were computed to quantify the risk of KS in transplant recipients compared with the general Italian population. Incidence rate ratios were computed to identify risk factors using adjusted Poisson regression. Based on 33,621 PYs, KS was diagnosed in 73 patients (62 men): 31 in kidney recipients, 27 in heart recipients, 8 in liver recipients, and 7 in lung recipients. The overall incidence was 217 cases per 10(5) PYs, with a significantly increased SIR of 125. SIR was particularly high in women (n = 34) and lung recipients (n = 428) but decreased significantly with time posttransplantation. The primary predictors of increased risk of KS were male sex, older age, and lung transplantation. A 5-fold reduction was observed after 18 months posttransplantation. After adjustment, patients born in southern Italy compared with northern Italy demonstrated a significant 2.2-fold increased risk. Our findings confirm that in the early posttransplantation period, Italian patients who have undergone solid-organ transplantation, particularly those from southern Italy and those who are lung recipients, are at greater risk of KS compared with the general population. These findings underscore the need for appropriate models for monitoring transplant recipients for KS, especially those at greater risk and, in particular, in the early postoperative period.

[Ventricular aneurysm as a complication of giant cell myocarditis]

Ventricular aneurysm as late complication has been described in cardiac sarcoidosis and occasionally in giant cell myocarditis. The images from the present case of ventricular aneurysm formation as a late complication of giant cell myocarditis underline a potential cause of sudden arrhythmic death in patients who survive this life-threatening condition in the absence of recurrent inflammation and with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Follow-up with cardiac magnetic resonance can detect small aneurysms, and an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator may be considered when this complication occurs.

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score

BACKGROUND

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.

Myocardial interleukin-6 in the setting of left ventricular mechanical assistance: relation with outcome and C-reactive protein

BACKGROUND

In left ventricular assist device (LVAD) recipients, plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-6 are associated with Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profiles, reflecting post-operative risk. However, it is not clear how the cardiac level of IL-6, detectable on the tissue samples at the time of implantation, can contribute to predict the post-operative outcome.

METHODS

In 40 LVAD recipients, blood and myocardial samples from LV-apex were collected at the time of implantation to assess plasma and cardiac IL-6 levels. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were considered as inflammatory variable routinely used in LVAD-based therapy.

RESULTS

Cardiac IL-6 levels did not correlate with either plasma IL-6 levels (R=0.296, p=0.063) and tissue IL-6 mRNA expression (R=-0.013, p=0.954). Contrary to what happened for the plasma IL-6 and CRP, no differences were observed in cardiac IL-6 levels with respect to INTERMACS profiles (p=0.090). Furthermore, cardiac IL-6 concentrations, unlike IL-6 and CRP circulating levels, were not correlated with the length of intensive care unit stay and hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac IL-6 levels do not contribute to improve risk profile of LVAD recipients in relation to clinical inpatient post-implantation. Instead, plasma IL-6 and serum CRP concentrations are more effective in predicting the severity of the clinical course in the early phase of LVAD therapy.

A new approach to the use of α-fetoprotein as surveillance test for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in patients with cirrhosis. As α-fetoprotein (AFP) is considered a poor surveillance test, we tested the performance of its changes over time.

METHODS

Eighty patients were diagnosed with HCC (cases) during semiannual surveillance with ultrasonography and AFP measurement were recruited and matched for age, gender, etiology and Child-Pugh class with 160 contemporary cancer-free controls undergoing the same surveillance training group (TG). As a validation group (VG) we considered 36 subsequent patients diagnosed with HCC, matched 1 : 3 with contemporary cancer-free controls. α-Fetoprotein values at the time of HCC diagnosis (T0) and its changes over the 12 (Δ12) and 6 months (Δ6) before cancer detection were considered.

RESULTS

In both TG and VG, >80% of HCCs were found at an early stage. In TG, AFP significantly increased over time only in cases. T0 AFP and a positive Δ6 were independently associated with HCC diagnosis (odds ratio: 1.031 and 2.402, respectively). The area under the curve of T0 AFP was 0.76 and its best cutoff (BC) was 10 ng ml(-1) (sensitivity 66.3%, specificity 80.6%). The combination of AFP >10 ng ml(-1) or a positive Δ6 composite α-fetoprotein index (CAI) increased the sensitivity to 80% with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 86.2%. Negative predictive value rose to 99%, considering a cancer prevalence of 3%. In the VG, the AFP-BC was again 10 ng ml(-1) (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 88.9%), and CAI sensitivity was 80.6% with a NPV value of 90.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

CAI achieves adequate sensitivity and NPV as a surveillance test for the early detection of HCC in cirrhosis.