Integration of mRNA and microRNA profiles as prognostic and predictive markers in lung adenocarcinoma

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Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) is a distinct biologic entity with unique gene amplifications (Weir B, Nature 2008). Yet, comprehensive transcriptomic analysis, including microRNAs, specific to lung ADC are lacking. Methods: Using mRNA expression data from a discovery cohort of 154 patients with histologically proven early stage (I and II) lung ADC, signatures of oncogenic pathway and tumor microenvironment status were applied and further organized by hierarchical clustering to develop a metagene model. Further, using in vitro assays in a large cohort of lung ADC cell lines (n = 42) with corresponding mRNA and microRNA data, novel microRNAs associated with a poor prognosis and their relationship to cisplatin resistance was elucidated. Results: In the discovery cohort of 154 patients with early stage disease, activation of oncogenic pathways associated with wound healing (angiogenesis), chromosomal instability, and STAT signaling were associated with an increased risk of recurrence (p<0.001). Utilizing the extremes of survival to identify cohorts of patients as high and low risk phenotypes, using bayesian regression, a 100 gene signature (‘metagene') that captured the diversity of signaling pathways unique to patients at increased risk of recurrence was identified and validated in an independent cohort (n = 364) of lung ADC samples with 78.3% accuracy. Kaplan Meier survival analysis and multivariate analysis further confirmed the independent prognostic value of the 100 gene signature (p= 0.007). Using in vitro cell proliferation assays, predicted high risk lung ADC cell lines were identified as being more resistant to cisplatin therapy than those predicted to be low risk (p=0.001). In a novel manner, we also identified several microRNAs (miR-215, miR-98, miR- 643, let-7b, miR-665, miR-629) associated with a high risk of recurrence and more importantly cisplatin resistance. Conclusions: mRNA and microRNA profiles reflect unique aspects of individual tumors and may characterize histology-specific tumor heterogeneity in lung ADC, providing an opportunity to better characterize the oncogenic process and refine therapeutic options.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem

The May 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan drew attention to the important but largely unrecognised public-health problem of injury-related mortality and morbidity in China. Injuries account for more than 10% of all deaths and more than 30% of all potentially productive years of life lost due to premature mortality in China. Traffic-related injuries (mainly among cyclists and pedestrians), suicide, drowning, and falls account for 79% of all injury deaths. Rural injury death rates are double those of urban rates and male rates are double those of female rates. Despite an 81% increase in the traffic-related mortality from 1987 to 2006-associated with rapid motorisation-the overall injury mortality decreased by 17%, largely due to a surprising (and unexplained) 57% reduction in the suicide rate. Low-cost prevention measures that are most likely to produce large reductions in injury deaths include enforcement of laws for drinking and driving and for seat belt and helmet use, restriction of access to the most potent pesticides, and teaching children to swim. China needs to improve monitoring of fatal and non-fatal injuries, promote intersectoral collaboration, build institutional capacities, and, most importantly, mobilise community support and political will for investment in prevention.

Reducing the burden of road traffic injury: translating high-income country interventions to middle-income and low-income countries

OBJECTIVE

To increase seat belt restraint use in Guangzhou City, People's Republic of China.

DESIGN

Comparison group pre-test, post-test design.

SETTING

Guangzhou City.

INTERVENTIONS

Interventions to increase the prevalence of seat belt use in high-income countries (enhanced training and enforcement practices along with raising of public awareness) were adapted and implemented in Guangzhou. The prevalence of seat belt use was determined before and after the introduction of the 12-month intervention. Seat belt prevalence was also examined over the same time period in the neighboring city of Nanning, and an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis of the intervention was undertaken.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence rates and incremental cost effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

A 12% increase in seat belt use was observed in Guangzhou over the study period, increasing from a prevalence of 50% before (error range 30-62%) to 62% after (error range 60-67%) (p<0.001) the intervention; an absolute change difference between the intervention and reference city of 20% was achieved. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the intervention was yen 3246 (US dollars 418) per disability-adjusted life year saved.

CONCLUSIONS

This city-wide intervention demonstrates that it is possible to increase the prevalence of seat belt use using similar methods to those used in high-income countries and, importantly, that such an approach is cost-effective.

White light sources based on multiple precision selective micro-filling of structured optical waveguides

Multiple precision selective micro-filling of a structured optical fibre using three luminescent dyes enables the simultaneous capture of red, blue and green luminescence within the core to generate white light. The technology opens up a new approach to integration and superposition of the properties of multiple materials to create unique composite properties within structured waveguides.

Demonstration of the density dependence of x-ray flux in a laser-driven hohlraum

Experiments have been conducted using laser-driven cylindrical hohlraums whose walls are machined from Ta2O5 foams of 100 mg/cc and 4 g/cc densities. Measurements of the radiation temperature demonstrate that the lower density walls produce higher radiation temperatures than the high density walls. This is the first experimental demonstration of the prediction that this would occur [M. D. Rosen and J. H. Hammer, Phys. Rev. E 72, 056403 (2005)10.1103/PhysRevE.72.056403]. For high density walls, the radiation front propagates subsonically, and part of the absorbed energy is wasted by the flow kinetic energy. For the lower wall density, the front velocity is supersonic and can devote almost all of the absorbed energy to heating the wall.

Flock-level case-control study of slaughter-lamb pneumonia in New Zealand

Subclinical pneumonia is common in production lambs, and causes reductions in growth rate. We selected farms from meat-inspection records of three New Zealand abattoirs from December 2000 to May 2001 to study risk factors for flocks having >or=3% of their lambs with >or=10% of the lung surface with lesions, compared to flocks with a zero lamb-level prevalence of such pneumonia. A questionnaire of management practices was mailed to participating managers of case and control farms and we received responses from 132/192 (69%) cases and 181/300 (60%) in control farms. Risk factors for case farms were shearing lambs on the day of weaning (OR 6.4), breeding ewe replacements on-farm (OR 4.0), and the percentage of lambs sold between March and May (OR 1.0 for <23% sold (reference category), OR 3.9 for 23-42% sold, OR 2.7 for 43-64% sold, OR 4.3 for >64% sold). Protective factors included: grazing lambs at a fixed stocking rate after weaning (OR 0.4), injecting lambs with vitamin B12 at the time of docking (OR 0.4), and at the time of weaning (OR 0.3). Path analysis was used to show important associations between risk and protective factors differentiated according to time (e.g. before and after birth, at weaning and during growth on pasture). Flocks breeding their own ewe replacements were more likely to shear lambs at weaning, were less likely to buy lambs post-weaning and more likely to have ill-thrift present in >5% of lambs post-weaning. The purchase of lambs post-weaning was indirectly associated with greater odds of pneumonia at slaughter.

Unsupervised and uncued segmentation of the fundamental heart sounds in phonocardiograms using a time-scale representation

A methodology is proposed to segment and label the fundamental activities, namely the first and second heart sounds, S1 and S2of the phonocardiogram (PCG). Information supplementary to the PCG, such as a cue from a synchronously acquired electrocardiogram (ECG), subject-specific prior information, or training examples regarding the activities, is not required by the proposed methodology. A bank of Morlet wavelet correlators is used to obtain a time-scale representation of the PCG. An energy profile of the time-scale representation and a singular value decomposition (SVD) technique are used to identify segments of the PCG that contain the fundamental activities. The robustness of the methodology is demonstrated by the correct segmentation of over 90% of 1068 fundamental activities in a challenging set of PCGs which were recorded from patients with normally functioning and abnormally functioning bioprosthetic valves. The PCGs included highly varying fundamental activities that overlapped in time and frequency with other aberrant non-fundamental activities such as murmurs and noise-like artifacts.

Hierarchical and spatial analyses of pneumonia-lesion prevalence at slaughter in New Zealand lambs

We recorded lesions of moderate-to-severe pneumonia (>or=10% lung surface area affected; "pneumonia") in 1,899,556 lambs submitted to three New Zealand abbatoirs between December 2000 and September 2001. The average prevalence of pneumonia ranged between 7 and 13%, by abbatoir. We ran a two-level mixed-effects binomial logistic-regression model with the prevalence of pneumonia as the outcome, and adjusting for abbatoir and month. The intracluster correlations for batch (slaughter lambs from the same farm sent at the same time) and farm were 31.3 and 12.4%, respectively. (We also noted threefold differences in odds across abbatoirs, and >30-fold differences among slaughter months.) Case flocks (those in the upper quintile of pneumonia prevalence) generally were not clustered in the spatial incidence-risk analysis (after adjusting for flock-level and batch level effects, and as compared to flocks in the lower two quintiles). We therefore concluded that the risk of moderate-to-severe pneumonia-lesion prevalence detectable at slaughter of lambs was determined at the flock and batch level, rather than at the spatial level.

Passive reverberation nulling for target enhancement

Echo-to-reverberation enhancement previously has been demonstrated using time reversal focusing when knowledge of the channel response between a target and the source array elements is available. In the absence of this knowledge, direct focusing is not possible. However, active reverberation nulling still is feasible given observations of reverberation from conventional source array transmissions. For a given range of interest, the response between the source array elements and the dominant sources of boundary reverberation is provided by the corresponding reverberation from this range. Thus, an active transmission can be projected from the source array which minimizes the energy interacting with the boundaries at a given range while still ensonifying the waveguide between the boundaries. As an alternative, here a passive reverberation nulling concept is proposed. In a similar fashion, the observed reverberation defines the response between the source array elements and the dominant sources of boundary reverberation at each range and this is used to drive a range-dependent sequence of projection operators. When these projection operators subsequently are applied to the received data vectors, reverberation can be diminished. The improvement in target detectability is demonstrated using experimental data with an echo repeater simulating the presence of a target.

Public road transport crashes in a low income country

OBJECTIVE

To assess the safety of government versus non-government public road transportation.

DESIGN

Descriptive study.

SETTING

Kandy Municipality Area, Sri Lanka.

SUBJECTS

All road traffic crashes reported to the Kandy Police from 1 October 1998 to 30 September 1999.

MAIN OUTCOME

Involvement in a road traffic crash reported to the Kandy Police in which a government bus, private bus, or a three-wheeler was involved.

RESULTS

During the study period, 132 government buses, 243 private buses, and 115 three wheelers were involved in 437 police reported road crashes. Of these crashes, eight (1.8%) were fatal and 132 (30.2%) were crashes resulting in injury requiring hospitalization. The majority of road crashes involved vehicle-vehicle interaction (63.4%) and vehicle-pedestrian interaction (17.8%), while the remainder consisted of vehicle-passenger and vehicle-road structure crashes. The research highlights an increased risk associated with travel on privately owned buses (RR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.5) and three wheelers (RR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.8) compared to travel on government buses. The disparity in crash rates between government and privately owned transportation modes can be explained, in part, by fewer safety requirements being imposed on the deregulated public transportation system.

CONCLUSIONS

Recommendations are made in order to address the differential in crash rates between public and private vehicle ownership used for public transportation in Sri Lanka.

A systematic review and economic evaluation of alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis

OBJECTIVES

To establish the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of selective oestrogen receptor modulators, bisphosphonates and parathyroid hormone (subject to licensing) for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis and the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies that met the review's entry criteria were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analyses provided that they reported fracture incidence in terms of the number of patients suffering fractures. Meta-analysis was carried out using the random-effects model. A model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis interventions. The model calculated the number of fractures that occurred and provided the costs associated with osteoporotic fractures, and the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). In addition, the conditions of breast cancer and coronary heart disease (CHD) were modelled, as some interventions have been shown to affect the risk of these conditions.

RESULTS

Ninety randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria. They related to the five interventions (alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide) and to five comparators (calcium, calcium plus vitamin D, calcitriol, hormone replacement therapy and exercise), as well as placebo or no treatment. All five interventions have been shown to reduce the risk of vertebral fracture in women with severe osteoporosis with adequate calcium intakes. However, none of these drugs has been demonstrated, by direct comparison, to be significantly more effective than either each other or the other active interventions reviewed in this report. The intervention costs of treating all osteoporotic women, for a period of 5 years, were in the region of pound 900-1500 million for alendronate, etidronate, risedronate and raloxifene. The cost per QALY ratios fell dramatically with age. Assuming the risks of a woman with severe osteoporosis at the threshold of osteoporosis, no treatment had a cost per QALY below pound 35,000 at 50 years of age. At 60 years of age, the cost per QALY of raloxifene was pound 26,000 assuming no impact on hip fractures, and pound 31,000 assuming an adverse effect. However, these results are driven by the effect on breast cancer and the assumptions made regarding this disease state. No other intervention had a cost per QALY below pound 35,000. When analyses were conducted assuming that the fracture risk is doubled at each site, alendronate and risedronate had cost per QALY ratios below pound 30,000 at all ages. For women at the threshold of osteoporosis, without a prior fracture and aged 70 years, the cost per QALY of the three bisphosphonates ranged from pound 34,000 to pound 41,000. Raloxifene had a cost per QALY of pound 23,000, assuming no effect on hip fracture, given assumptions regarding breast cancer. At 80 years of age, the cost per QALY of alendronate and risedronate was below pound 20,000. This was true for etidronate when incorporating observational data, but the value rose to pound 69,000 when only RCT data were used. No other intervention had a cost per QALY below pound 35,000. It was assumed that doubling the risk of fracture for women without a prior fracture would give results similar to patients at the threshold of osteoporosis with a prior fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the five interventions, only raloxifene appeared to reduce the risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women unselected for low bone mineral density (BMD). However, as the full data have not been made public, there is some uncertainty regarding this result. None of the five interventions has been shown to reduce the risk of non-vertebral fracture in women unselected for low BMD. All of the proposed interventions provided gains in QALYs compared with no treatment in women with sufficient calcium and vitamin D intakes. The size of the QALY gain for each intervention was strongly related to the age of the patient. The estimated costs varied widely for the interventions. These net costs were markedly different by age, with some interventions becoming cost-saving at higher age ranges in patients with a prior fracture. Areas for future research include: the evidence base for the efficacy of fracture prevention in the very elderly, reanalysis of raloxifene using a dedicated breast cancer and CHD model, and more trials considering the cost-effectiveness of teriparatide.

Glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis: a systematic review and cost-utility analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether strategies can be devised for the assessment and treatment of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIO).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases were searched up to October 2002.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of interventions was undertaken of all randomised controlled trials in which fracture was measured as an outcome. Effectiveness was compared with effectiveness in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The risk of osteoporotic fractures at any given T-score for bone mineral density (BMD) was determined from published meta-analyses of the relationship between BMD and fracture risk. The risk of an osteoporotic fracture in the presence of a prior osteoporotic fracture was computed from a published meta-analysis of the relationship between the prior occurrence of fracture of each type and the risk of a future fracture of each type. The additional risk due to exposure to glucocorticoids was determined by meta-analysis of prospectively studied population-based cohorts. The consequences of fracture on mortality were assessed for each fracture type. Costs and utilities were determined for osteoporosis in the UK by updating systematic reviews of the literature. A model was prepared that comprised an individual patient-based approach that simulated whether or not events occurred in each subsequent year for each patient. Effectiveness was populated from a systematic review of interventions in GIO and postmenopausal osteoporosis. Treatments were given for 5 years using a 5-year offset time (in this context, offset time is the duration for which an effect on fracture persists after the treatment stops). The analytic framework was set at 10 years. Because of the many uncertainties, extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

Evidence of anti-fracture efficacy was confined to a minority of agents used in the management of GIO. Only risedronate (a bisphosphonate) and calcidiol (vitamin D) were shown to have significant effects on vertebral fracture risk, but neither had significant effects on non-vertebral fracture risk. In further meta-analyses, the effects of bisphosphonates in GIO were compared with effects combining all available data for bisphosphonates in GIO and in postmenopausal osteoporosis. Since calcidiol is not licensed for use in the UK, cost-effectiveness analysis was confined to risedronate and to a pooled bisphosphonate effect. Analysis of cost-effectiveness of risedronate using the empirical data in GIO showed better cost-effectiveness with increasing age, but at no age did cost-effectiveness ratios fall below the threshold value of 30,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year gained. When account was taken of BMD, cost-effectiveness was confined to less than 10% of patients with very low T-scores for BMD. Assuming that bisphosphonate efficacy on fracture risk was comparable to that observed with bisphosphonates in postmenopausal osteoporosis, cost-effectiveness was shown in patients with a prior fracture. In patients with no prior fracture, cost-effectiveness was observed in individuals aged 75 years or more. In younger patients without a prior fracture, cost-effective scenarios were found contingent upon a T-score for BMD that was 2.0 SD or less.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-effective scenarios for risedronate in the management of GIO were identified, but only at the extremes of age and T-score, such that less than 10% of patients aged 50 years or more would be eligible for treatment. Greater cost-effectiveness was observed assuming that the effects of bisphosphonate in GIO were similar to those observed in postmenopausal osteoporosis, an assumption tested by meta-analysis. An assessment algorithm is proposed based on age, the presence of a prior fragility fracture and BMD tests in individuals aged 50 years or more with no fracture. The conclusions derived are conservative, mainly because of the assumptions that were made in the absence of sufficient data. Thus, conclusions that treatment scenarios are cost-effective are reasonably secure. By contrast, scenarios shown not to be cost-effective are less secure. As information in these areas becomes available, the implications for cost-effectiveness of interventions should be reappraised. Health economic assessment based on probability of fracture is an important area for further research. Other areas for further research arise from gaps in empirical knowledge on utilities and side-effects that are amenable to primary research. Further secondary research is recommended to evaluate more closely the impact of all vertebral fractures (rather than clinically overt vertebral fractures) on cost-effectiveness and methods of monitoring treatment.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate for the prevention of osteoporotic fragility fractures in postmenopausal women

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women, at different levels of absolute fracture risk. This considers secondary prevention in women who have sustained a previous fracture and primary prevention in those women without a previous fracture, as women with osteoporosis are asymptomatic until a fracture is sustained.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic bibliographic databases were searched in September 2004 and updated in March 2005.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was carried out to determine clinical effectiveness using the major electronic bibliographic databases and handsearching reference lists of relevant articles and sponsor submissions. Data from selected studies were assessed and included in the meta-analyses, if appropriate. The model used to calculate cost-effectiveness ratios was an updated version of Sheffield Health Economic Model for Osteoporosis that was populated with absolute risk of fractures using an algorithm being developed for the World Health Organization and supplied in confidence to the authors. The model calculated the number of fractures that occur and provided as output data the costs associated with osteoporotic fractures, and the quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued by a cohort of 100 osteoporotic women, with each fracture being detrimental to health and incurring a cost. When the costs of the intervention were included, the incremental cost compared with no treatment was calculated and divided by the gain in QALYs to calculate cost-effectiveness measures. Treatment with strontium ranelate was calculated against a no-treatment option to evaluate whether it could be given cost-effectively. An incremental analysis against alendronate was also conducted to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate relative to a current standard treatment. The cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying and treating women without a prior fracture used the risk of fracture as an input to the cost-effectiveness model.

RESULTS

Three trials were identified. Pooled data from two studies indicate that strontium ranelate therapy is associated with a reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture [relative risk (RR) compared with placebo 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 0.69, p < 0.001] and non-vertebral fracture (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.97, p = 0.01). In general, strontium ranelate therapy did not seem to be associated with an increased risk of adverse events. However, the risk of one rare but serious adverse event, venous thromboembolism (including pulmonary embolism), was found to be significantly higher in patients receiving strontium ranelate compared with placebo (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.98, p = 0.036). Some nervous system disorders, including mental impairment, disturbed consciousness, memory loss and seizures, were also more common in patients randomised to strontium ranelate. Strontium ranelate provided gains in QALYs compared with no treatment in women with sufficient calcium and vitamin D intakes. The size of the QALY gain for each intervention was strongly related to the absolute risk of fracture. From the algorithm used, it is seen that strontium ranelate can be used cost-effectively in women at relatively high risk of osteoporotic fracture. However, the results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, using efficacy data from randomised controlled trials, suggest that it is not as cost-effective as alendronate, a comparator intervention from the bisphosphonate class. The use of strontium ranelate in women without a prior fracture will be dependent on identification algorithms being produced in conjunction with the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence Osteoporosis Guidelines Development Group.

CONCLUSIONS

Strontium ranelate was shown to be clinically effective in the prevention of osteoporotic fractures. Scenarios have been found where strontium ranelate can be used cost-effectively, however given the probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted, this intervention appears to be less cost-effective than the bisphosphonate alendronate. The evidence base for the efficacy of fracture prevention for strontium ranelate needs to be strengthened, particularly for hip fractures, where there is currently a non-significant reduction. If it were believed that the efficacy of strontium ranelate is dependent on either age or absolute risk, this would need to be proven. The evidence base on the T-score by age of the general female population needs to be strengthened, particularly in women over the age of 80 years. The prevalence of risk factors associated with fracture rates, over and above that provided by bone mineral density, also needs to be significantly strengthened to ensure that the estimated number of women that could be cost-effectively treated is accurate.

Incorporation of a laminin-derived peptide (SIKVAV) on polymer-modified adenovirus permits tumor-specific targeting via alpha6-integrins

Effective gene therapy for disseminated metastatic cancer is currently impossible because of poor delivery of vector to target sites. Modification of viral vectors to target advanced cancer has long been a challenge. In this study, we aimed to redirect adenovirus tropism to infect prostate cancer cells via alpha6beta1 integrins, whose expression is upregulated during prostate cancer progression. To ablate normal mechanisms of infection and provide a framework for attachment of targeting ligands, viruses were non-genetically modified with pHPMA-ONp polymer. Addition of polymer-coated virus to prostate cells showed significantly reduced transgene expression compared with unmodified virus. To restore infectivity, an alpha6-integrin binding peptide (-SIKVAV-) derived from laminin was incorporated onto the surface of the polymer-coated viruses. Photon correlation spectroscopic analysis revealed a small increase in the mean diameter of the particles following retargeting. Addition of -SIKVAV- peptide restored virus infectivity of PC-3 cells in a ligand concentration-dependent manner that was significantly improved following removal of unincorporated polymer and peptide. Competition assays using cells preincubated with Ad5 fiber protein or free -SIKVAV- peptide confirmed that entry of retargeted viruses was mediated via the incorporated ligand. Application of retargeted viruses to a panel of human cell lines revealed varying levels of transduction efficiency. Flow cytometric analysis of cells using anti-alpha6 integrin and anti-beta1 integrin antibodies demonstrated that for prostate cells, greater transduction efficiency correlated with higher levels of expression of both integrin subunits. Furthermore with the exception of LNCaP cells, increased alpha6beta1 integrin expression correlated with advanced disease. Intravenous administration of retargeted viruses to tumor-bearing mice resulted in slower plasma clearance and greatly reduced liver tropism, and hence toxicity compared with unmodified virus, while maintaining reporter gene expression in the tumor. The data suggest that YESIKVAVS-retargeted viruses have potential for systemic delivery for the treatment of metastatic disease.

Measurement of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of non-invasive diagnostic testing strategies for deep vein thrombosis

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests for proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and isolated calf DVT, in patients with clinically suspected DVT or high-risk asymptomatic patients, and identify factors associated with variation in diagnostic performance. Also to identify practical diagnostic algorithms for DVT, and estimate the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of each.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (to April 2004). A postal survey of hospitals in the UK.

REVIEW METHODS

Selected studies were assessed against validated criteria. A postal survey of hospitals in the UK was undertaken to describe current practice and availability of tests, and identify additional diagnostic algorithms. Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios were obtained for each test using random effects meta-analysis. The effect of study-level covariates was explored using random effects metaregression. A decision-analytic model was used to combine estimates from the meta-analysis and estimate the diagnostic performance of each algorithm in a theoretical population of outpatients with suspected DVT. The net benefit of using each algorithm was estimated from a health service perspective, using cost--utility analysis, assuming thresholds of willingness to pay of pound 20,000 and pound 30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The model was analysed probabilistically and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated to reflect uncertainty in estimated cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Individual clinical features are of limited diagnostic value, with most likelihood ratios being close to 1. Wells clinical probability score stratifies proximal, but not distal, DVT into high-, intermediate- and low-risk categories. Unstructured clinical assessment by experienced clinicians may have similar performance to Wells score. In patients with clinically suspected DVT, D-dimer has 91% sensitivity and 55% specificity for DVT, although performance varies substantially between assays and populations. D-dimer specificity is dependent on pretest clinical probability, being higher in patients with a low clinical probability of DVT. Plethysmography and rheography techniques have modest sensitivity for proximal DVT, poor sensitivity for distal DVT, and modest specificity. Ultrasound has 94% sensitivity for proximal DVT, 64% sensitivity for distal DVT and 94% specificity. Computed tomography scanning has 95% sensitivity for all DVT (proximal and distal combined) and 97% specificity. Magnetic resonance imaging has 92% sensitivity for all DVT and 95% specificity. The diagnostic performance of all tests is worse in asymptomatic patients. The most cost-effective algorithm discharged patients with a low Wells score and negative D-dimer without further testing, and then used plethysmography alongside ultrasound, with venography in selected cases, to diagnose the remaining patients. However, the cost-effectiveness of this algorithm was dependent on assumptions of test independence being met and the ability to provide plethysmography at relatively low cost. Availability of plethysmography and venography is currently limited at most UK hospitals, so implementation would involve considerable reorganisation of services. Two algorithms were identified that offered high net benefit and would be feasible in most hospitals without substantial reorganisation of services. Both involved using a combination of Wells score, D-dimer and above-knee ultrasound. For thresholds of willingness to pay of pound 10,000 or pound 20,000 per QALY the optimal strategy involved discharging patients with a low or intermediate Wells score and negative D-dimer, ultrasound for those with a high score or positive D-dimer, and repeat scanning for those with positive D-dimer and a high Wells score, but negative initial scan. For thresholds of pound 30,000 or more a similar strategy, but involving repeat ultrasound for all those with a negative initial scan, was optimal.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostic algorithms based on a combination of Wells score, D-dimer and ultrasound (with repeat if negative) are feasible at most UK hospitals and are among the most cost-effective. Use of repeat scanning depends on the threshold for willingness to pay for health gain. Further diagnostic testing for patients with a low Wells score and negative D-dimer is unlikely to represent a cost-effective use of resources. Recommendations for research include the evaluation of the costs and outcomes of using the optimal diagnostic algorithms in routine practice, the development and evaluation of algorithms appropriate for specific groups of patients with suspected DVT, such as intravenous drug abusers, pregnant patients and those with previous DVT, the evaluation of the role of plethysmography: interaction with other diagnostic tests, outcome of low-risk patients with negative plethysmography and measurement of the costs of providing plethysmography, and methodological research into the incorporation of meta-analytic data into decision-analytic modelling.

Accurate, practical and cost-effective assessment of carotid stenosis in the UK

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether less invasive imaging tests [ultrasound (US), magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), computed tomographic angiography (CTA) and contrast-enhanced MRA (CEMRA)], alone or combined, could replace intra-arterial angiography (IAA), what effect this would have on strokes and deaths, endarterectomies performed and costs, and whether less invasive tests were cost-effective.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases covering the years 1980-2003 inclusive, updated to April 2004. Key journals from 1990 to the end of 2002.

REVIEW METHODS

The authors constituted a panel of experts in stroke, imaging, vascular surgery, statistics and health economic modelling. The accuracy of less invasive carotid imaging was systematically reviewed using Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) methodology, supplemented by individual patient data from UK primary research and audit studies. A systematic review of the costs of less invasive tests, outpatient clinics, endarterectomy and stroke was performed, along with a microcosting exercise. A model of the process of care following a transient ischaemic attack (TIA)/minor stroke was developed, populated with data from stroke epidemiology studies in the UK, effects of medical and surgical interventions, outcomes, quality of life and costs. A survey of UK stroke prevention clinics provided typical timings. Twenty-two different carotid imaging strategies were evaluated for short- and long-term outcomes, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and net benefit.

RESULTS

In 41 included studies (2404 patients, median age 60-65 years), most data were available on 70-99% stenosis. CEMRA was the most accurate [sensitivity 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 0.97; specificity 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96], compared with US, MRA and CTA, which were all similar (e.g. for US: sensitivity 0.89, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.92; specificity 0.84, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.89). Data for 50-69% stenoses and on combinations of tests were too sparse to be reliable. There was heterogeneity between studies for all imaging modalities except for CTA. The individual patient data (2416 patients) showed that the literature overestimated test accuracy in routine practice and that, in general, tests perform with higher sensitivity and specificity in asymptomatic than in symptomatic arteries. In the cost-effectiveness model, on current UK timings, strategies allowed more patients to reach endarterectomy very quickly, and where those with 50-69% stenosis would be offered surgery in addition to those with 70-99%, prevented most strokes and produced greatest net benefit. This included most strategies with US as first or repeat test, and not those with IAA. However, the model was sensitive to less invasive test accuracy, cost and timing of endarterectomy. In patients investigated late after TIA, test accuracy is crucial and CEMRA should be used before surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK, less invasive tests can be used in place of IAA if radiologists trained in carotid imaging are available. Imaging should be carefully audited. Stroke prevention clinics should reduce waiting times at all stages to improve speed of access to endarterectomy. In patients presenting late after TIA, test accuracy is very important and US results should be confirmed by CEMRA, as patients with 50-69% stenosis are less likely to benefit. More data are required to define the accuracy of the less invasive tests, with improvements made in the data collection methods used and how data are presented. Consideration should also be given to the use of new technologies and randomised trials.