Association of Tdap Vaccination With Acute Events and Adverse Birth Outcomes Among Pregnant Women With Prior Tetanus-Containing Immunizations

IMPORTANCE

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends the tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine for pregnant women during each pregnancy, regardless of prior immunization status. However, safety data on repeated Tdap vaccination in pregnancy is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether receipt of Tdap vaccine during pregnancy administered in close intervals from prior tetanus-containing vaccinations is associated with acute adverse events in mothers and adverse birth outcomes in neonates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study in 29,155 pregnant women aged 14 through 49 years from January 1, 2007, through November 15, 2013, using data from 7 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites in California, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin.

EXPOSURES

Women who received Tdap in pregnancy following a prior tetanus-containing vaccine less than 2 years before, 2 to 5 years before, and more than 5 years before.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Acute adverse events (fever, allergy, and local reactions) and adverse birth outcomes (small for gestational age, preterm delivery, and low birth weight) were evaluated. Women who were vaccinated with Tdap in pregnancy and had a prior tetanus-containing vaccine more than 5 years before served as controls.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in rates of medically attended acute adverse events or adverse birth outcomes related to timing since prior tetanus-containing vaccination. [table: see text].

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among women who received Tdap vaccination during pregnancy, there was no increased risk of acute adverse events or adverse birth outcomes for those who had been previously vaccinated less than 2 years before or 2 to 5 years before compared with those who had been vaccinated more than 5 years before. These findings suggest that relatively recent receipt of a prior tetanus-containing vaccination does not increase risk after Tdap vaccination in pregnancy.

Self-Collected Nasal Swabs for Respiratory Virus Surveillance

We tested whether 135 patients reporting acute respiratory illness (ARI) could self-collect nasal swab specimens and ship them for laboratory testing. Most subjects (78.2%) collected and shipped their specimens without errors; 10.5% excluded ≥1 packing components; 12.9% made ≥1 packing errors. Self-swabbing at home is feasible for confirming ARI etiology.

Factors associated with real-time RT-PCR cycle threshold values among medically attended influenza episodes

We evaluated the cycle threshold (CT) values of 1,160 influenza A positive and 806 influenza B positive specimens from two seasons of the US Flu VE Network to identify factors associated with CT values. Low CT values (high genomic load) were associated with shorter intervals between illness onset and specimen collection, young age (ages 3-8 years old), and self-rated illness severity for both influenza A and B. Low CT values were also associated with reported fever/feverishness and age ≥65 years for influenza A.

Use of influenza antiviral medications among outpatients at high risk for influenza-associated complications during the 2013-2014 influenza season

During the 2013-2014 influenza season, we analyzed data from 6004 outpatients aged ≥6 months with acute respiratory illness (ARI). Among the 2786 ARI patients at higher risk for influenza complications, 835 (30%) presented to care ≤2 days from symptom onset; among those, 126 (15%) were prescribed an antiviral medication.

Effects of imperfect test sensitivity and specificity on observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness

BACKGROUND

The recently developed test-negative design is now standard for observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). It is unclear how influenza test misclassification biases test-negative VE estimates relative to VE estimates from traditional cohort or case-control studies.

METHODS

We simulated populations whose members may develop acute respiratory illness (ARI) due to influenza and to non-influenza pathogens. In these simulations, vaccination reduces the risk of influenza but not of non-influenza ARI. Influenza test sensitivity and specificity, risks of influenza and non-influenza ARI, and VE were varied across the simulations. In each simulation, we estimated influenza VE using a cohort design, a case-control design, and a test-negative design.

RESULTS

In the absence of influenza test misclassification, all three designs accurately estimated influenza VE. In the presence of misclassification, all three designs underestimated VE. Bias in VE estimates was slightly greater in the test-negative design than in cohort or case-control designs. Assuming the use of highly sensitive and specific reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests for influenza, bias in the test-negative studies was trivial across a wide range of realistic values for VE.

DISCUSSION

Although influenza test misclassification causes more bias in test-negative studies than in traditional cohort or case-control studies, the difference is trivial for realistic combinations of attack rates, test sensitivity/specificity, and VE.

Early estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness - United States, January 2015

In the United States, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months. Each season since 2004-05, CDC has estimated the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing medically attended acute respiratory illness (ARI) associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza. This season, early estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness are possible because of widespread, early circulation of influenza viruses. By January 3, 2015, 46 states were experiencing widespread flu activity, with predominance of influenza A (H3N2) viruses. This report presents an initial estimate of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness at preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection associated with medically attended ARI based on data from 2,321 children and adults enrolled in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (Flu VE) during November 10, 2014-January 2, 2015. During this period, overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) (adjusted for study site, age, sex, race/ethnicity, self-rated health, and days from illness onset to enrollment) against laboratory-confirmed influenza associated with medically attended ARI was 23% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8%-36%). Most influenza infections were due to A (H3N2) viruses. This interim VE estimate is relatively low compared with previous seasons when circulating viruses and vaccine viruses were well-matched and likely reflects the fact that more than two-thirds of circulating A (H3N2) viruses are antigenically and genetically different (drifted) from the A (H3N2) vaccine component of 2014-15 Northern Hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccines. These early, low VE estimates underscore the need for ongoing influenza prevention and treatment measures. CDC continues to recommend influenza vaccination because the vaccine can still prevent some infections with the currently circulating A (H3N2) viruses as well as other viruses that might circulate later in the season, including influenza B viruses. Even when VE is reduced, vaccination still prevents some illness and serious influenza-related complications, including thousands of hospitalizations and deaths. Persons aged ≥6 months who have not yet been vaccinated this season should be vaccinated, including persons who might already have been ill with influenza this season.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in the United States during 2012-2013: variable protection by age and virus type

Background. During the 2012–2013 influenza season, there was cocirculation of influenza A(H3N2) and 2 influenza B lineage viruses in the United States.

Methods. Patients with acute cough illness for ≤7 days were prospectively enrolled and had swab samples obtained at outpatient clinics in 5 states. Influenza vaccination dates were confirmed by medical records. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as [100% × (1 − adjusted odds ratio)] for vaccination in cases versus test-negative controls.

Results. Influenza was detected in 2307 of 6452 patients (36%); 1292 (56%) had influenza A(H3N2), 582 (25%) had influenza B/Yamagata, and 303 (13%) had influenza B/Victoria. VE was 49% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43%–55%) overall, 39% (95% CI, 29%–47%) against influenza A(H3N2), 66% (95% CI, 58%–73%) against influenza B/Yamagata (vaccine lineage), and 51% (95% CI, 36%–63%) against influenza B/Victoria. VE against influenza A(H3N2) was highest among persons aged 50–64 years (52%; 95% CI, 33%–65%) and persons aged 6 months–8 years (51%; 95% CI, 32%–64%) and lowest among persons aged ≥65 years (11%; 95% CI, −41% to 43%). In younger age groups, there was evidence of residual protection from receipt of the 2011–2012 vaccine 1 year earlier.

Conclusions. The 2012–2013 vaccines were moderately effective in most age groups. Cross-lineage protection and residual effects from prior vaccination were observed and warrant further investigation.

Evaluation of the association of maternal pertussis vaccination with obstetric events and birth outcomes

IMPORTANCE

In 2010, due to a pertussis outbreak and neonatal deaths, the California Department of Health recommended that the tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) be administered during pregnancy. Tdap is now recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for all pregnant women, preferably between 27 and 36 weeks' gestation. Limited data exist on Tdap safety during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether maternal Tdap vaccination during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of adverse obstetric events or adverse birth outcomes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective, observational cohort study using administrative health care databases from 2 California Vaccine Safety Datalink sites.

PARTICIPANTS AND EXPOSURES

Of 123,494 women with singleton pregnancies ending in a live birth between January 1, 2010, and November 15, 2012, 26,229 (21%) received Tdap during pregnancy and 97,265 did not.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Risks of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) births (<10th percentile), chorioamnionitis, preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation), and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were evaluated. Relative risk (RR) estimates were adjusted for site, receipt of another vaccine during pregnancy, and propensity to receive Tdap during pregnancy. Cox regression was used for preterm delivery, and Poisson regression for other outcomes.

RESULTS

Vaccination was not associated with increased risks of adverse birth outcomes: crude estimates for preterm delivery were 6.3% of vaccinated and 7.8% of unvaccinated women (adjusted RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.97-1.09); 8.4% of vaccinated and 8.3% of unvaccinated had an SGA birth (adjusted RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.96-1.06). Receipt of Tdap before 20 weeks was not associated with hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (adjusted RR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.20); chorioamnionitis was diagnosed in 6.1% of vaccinated and 5.5% of unvaccinated women (adjusted RR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.26).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort of women with singleton pregnancies that ended in live birth, receipt of Tdap during pregnancy was not associated with increased risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy or preterm or SGA birth, although a small but statistically significant increased risk of chorioamnionitis diagnosis was observed.

Childhood vaccines and Kawasaki disease, Vaccine Safety Datalink, 1996-2006

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease is a childhood vascular disorder of unknown etiology. Concerns have been raised about vaccinations being a potential risk factor for Kawasaki disease.

METHODS

Data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink were collected on children aged 0-6 years at seven managed care organizations across the United States. Defining exposure as one of several time periods up to 42 days after vaccination, we conducted Poisson regressions controlling for age, sex, season, and managed care organization to determine if rates of physician-diagnosed and verified Kawasaki disease were elevated following vaccination compared to rates during all unexposed periods. We also performed case-crossover analyses to control for unmeasured confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 1,721,186 children aged 0-6 years from seven managed care organizations were followed for a combined 4,417,766 person-years. The rate of verified Kawasaki disease was significantly lower during the 1-42 days after vaccination (rate ratio=0.50, 95% CL=0.27-0.92) and 8-42 days after vaccination (rate ratio=0.45, 95% CL=0.22-0.90) compared to rates during unexposed periods. Breaking down the analysis by vaccination category did not identify a subset of vaccines which was solely responsible for this association. The case-crossover analyses revealed that children with Kawasaki disease had lower rates of vaccination in the 42 days prior to symptom onset for both physician-diagnosed Kawasaki disease (rate ratio=0.79, 95% CL=0.64-0.97) and verified Kawasaki disease (rate ratio=0.38, 95% CL=0.20-0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood vaccinations' studied did not increase the risk of Kawasaki disease; conversely, vaccination was associated with a transient decrease in Kawasaki disease incidence. Verifying and understanding this potential protective effect could yield clues to the underlying etiology of Kawasaki disease.

Prognostic value of histologic grading for feline mammary carcinoma: a retrospective survival analysis

Feline mammary carcinoma is highly malignant and generally associated with a poor prognosis, although studies suggest the range of survival times in affected cats is broad. Histologic grading of these tumors is achieved using the Elston and Ellis system, originally developed for human breast cancer. In cats, however, classification using this method has variable prognostic value. Therefore, objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate the Elston and Ellis grading system for feline mammary carcinoma in a predominantly spayed population and (2) to determine whether modification of this system or development of a novel system improved the prognostic value of histologic grading. Survey data and histologic features for 108 carcinomas from 97 cats were analyzed with respect to overall survival. Elston and Ellis grading failed to correlate significantly with overall survival. Using multivariable analysis, lymphovascular invasion, nuclear form, and mitotic count each demonstrated independent prognostic significance (P = .008, <.001, and .004, respectively). Modifications of the Elston and Ellis system and a novel grading system were proposed based on these results; all showed significant correlation with overall survival (P < .001). Median survival times were 27, 29, or 31 months for grade I; 14, 12, or 14 months for grade II; and 13, 5, or 8 months for grade III carcinomas using the mitotic-modified Elston and Ellis, the revised Elston and Ellis, or the novel grading system, respectively. Based on this retrospective study, adoption of the species-specific systems as proposed here may improve the prognostic value of histologic grading for feline mammary carcinoma.

Interim estimates of 2013-14 seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness - United States, February 2014

In the United States, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months. Each season since 2004-05, CDC has estimated the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine to prevent influenza-associated, medically attended acute respiratory illness (ARI). This report uses data from 2,319 children and adults enrolled in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (Flu VE) Network during December 2, 2013-January 23, 2014, to estimate an interim adjusted effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection associated with medically attended ARI. During this period, overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) (adjusted for study site, age, sex, race/ethnicity, self-rated health, and days from illness onset to enrollment) against influenza A and B virus infection associated with medically attended ARI was 61%. The influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 (pH1N1) virus that emerged to cause a pandemic in 2009 accounted for 98% of influenza viruses detected. VE was estimated to be 62% against pH1N1 virus infections and was similar across age groups. As of February 8, 2014, influenza activity remained elevated in the United States, the proportion of persons seeing their health-care provider for influenza-like illness was lower than in early January but remained above the national baseline, and activity still might be increasing in some parts of the country. CDC and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices routinely recommend that annual influenza vaccination efforts continue as long as influenza viruses are circulating. Persons aged ≥6 months who have not yet been vaccinated this season should be vaccinated. Antiviral medications are an important second line of defense to treat influenza illness and should be used as recommended among suspected or confirmed influenza patients, regardless of patient vaccination status. Early antiviral treatment is recommended for persons with suspected influenza with severe or progressive illness (e.g., hospitalized persons) and those at high risk for complications from influenza, no matter how severe the illness.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in the 2011-2012 season: protection against each circulating virus and the effect of prior vaccination on estimates

BACKGROUND

Each year, the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network examines the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing medically attended acute respiratory illnesses caused by influenza.

METHODS

Patients with acute respiratory illnesses of ≤ 7 days' duration were enrolled at ambulatory care facilities in 5 communities. Specimens were collected and tested for influenza by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Receipt of influenza vaccine was defined based on documented evidence of vaccination in medical records or immunization registries. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated in adjusted logistic regression models by comparing the vaccination coverage in those who tested positive for influenza with those who tested negative.

RESULTS

The 2011-2012 season was mild and peaked late, with circulation of both type A viruses and both lineages of type B. Overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36-56) in preventing medically attended influenza; vaccine effectiveness was 65% (95% CI, 44-79) against type A (H1N1) pdm09 but only 39% (95% CI, 23-52) against type A (H3N2). Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against both type B lineages were similar (overall, 58%; 95% CI, 35-73). An apparent negative effect of prior year vaccination on current year effectiveness estimates was noted, particularly for A (H3N2) outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine effectiveness in the 2011-2012 season was modest overall, with lower effectiveness against the predominant A (H3N2) virus. This may be related to antigenic drift, but past history of vaccination might also play a role.

Evaluating Washington State's immunization information system as a research tool

OBJECTIVE

Immunization information systems (IISs) are powerful public health tools for vaccination activities. To date, however, their use for public health research has been limited, in part as a result of insufficient understanding on accuracy and quality of IIS data. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of Washington State IIS (WAIIS) data, with particular attention to data elements of research interest.

METHODS

We analyzed all WAIIS records on all children born between 2006 and 2010 with at least 1 vaccination recorded in WAIIS between 2006 and 2010. We assessed all variables for completeness and tested selected variables for internal validity. To assess external validity, we matched WAIIS data to records from Group Health, a large integrated health care organization in Washington State. On these children, we compared vaccination data in WAIIS with vaccination data from Group Health's immunization registry.

RESULTS

The WAIIS data included 486,265 children and 8,670,234 unique vaccinations. Variables required by WAIIS (such as date of vaccination) were highly complete, but optional variables were often missing. For example, most records were missing data on route (80.7%) and anatomic site (81.7%) of vaccination. WAIIS data, when complete, were highly accurate relative to the Group Health immunization registry, with 96% to 99% agreement between fields such as vaccination code and anatomic site.

CONCLUSIONS

Required data elements in WAIIS are highly complete and have both internal and external validity, suggesting that these variables are useful for research. Research requiring nonrequired variables should use additional validity checks before proceeding.

Further evidence for bias in observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness: the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Preinfluenza periods have been used to test for uncontrolled confounding in studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness, but some authors have claimed that confounding differs in preinfluenza and influenza periods. We tested this claim by comparing estimates of the vaccine-mortality association during the 2009/2010 influenza year, when there was essentially no circulation of seasonal influenza in the United States, and 2007/2008, a typical influenza year. We pooled data on seniors (adults aged ≥65 years) from 7 US managed care organizations that participated in the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project. We defined influenza vaccination, all-cause mortality, and potential confounders from administrative databases. We quantified the vaccine-mortality association using Cox regression. During 2007/2008, the adjusted hazard ratio was 0.44 prior to influenza season, 0.62 during influenza season, and 0.71 after influenza season. A similar pattern was observed during 2009/2010, when any effect of seasonal influenza vaccine observed during all time periods must have resulted from confounding: 0.65 during the autumn, 0.80 during the winter, and 0.84 during the summer. In a year with minimal seasonal influenza, we found no evidence that confounding in autumn preinfluenza periods is qualitatively different from confounding in winter. This supports the use of preinfluenza periods as control time periods in studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in health care database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness

OBJECTIVES

Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased owing to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We applied two such methods, namely imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method's ability to reduce bias using the control time period before influenza circulation.

RESULTS

Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not use the validation sample confounders.

CONCLUSION

Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from health care database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which the data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information.

Mortality rates and cause-of-death patterns in a vaccinated population

BACKGROUND

Determining the baseline mortality rate in a vaccinated population is necessary to be able to identify any unusual increases in deaths following vaccine administration. Background rates are particularly useful during mass immunization campaigns and in the evaluation of new vaccines.

PURPOSE

Provide background mortality rates and describe causes of death following vaccination in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD).

METHODS

Analyses were conducted in 2012. Mortality rates were calculated at 0-1 day, 0-7 days, 0-30 days, and 0-60 days following vaccination for deaths occurring between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2008. Analyses were stratified by age and gender. Causes of death were examined, and findings were compared to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data.

RESULTS

Among 13,033,274 vaccinated people, 15,455 deaths occurred between 0 and 60 days following vaccination. The mortality rate within 60 days of a vaccination visit was 442.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years. Rates were highest in the group aged ≥85 years, and increased from the 0-1-day to the 0-60-day interval following vaccination. Eleven of the 15 leading causes of death in the VSD and NCHS overlap in both systems, and the top four causes of death were the same in both systems.

CONCLUSIONS

VSD mortality rates demonstrate a healthy vaccinee effect, with rates lowest in the days immediately following vaccination, most apparent in the older age groups. The VSD mortality rate is lower than that in the general U.S. population, and the causes of death are similar.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome, Influenza Vaccination, and Antecedent Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Infections: A Case-Centered Analysis in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, 2009-2011

BACKGROUND

Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can be triggered by gastrointestinal or respiratory infections, including influenza. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, monovalent inactivated influenza vaccine (MIV) availability coincided with high rates of wildtype influenza infections. Several prior studies suggested an elevated GBS risk following MIV, but adjustment for antecedent infection was limited.

METHODS

We identified patients enrolled in health plans participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink and diagnosed with GBS from July 2009 through June 2011. Medical records of GBS cases with 2009-10 MIV, 2010-11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), and/or a medically-attended respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the 1 through 141 days prior to GBS diagnosis were reviewed and classified according to Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Using a case-centered design, logistic regression models adjusted for patient-level time-varying sources of confounding, including seasonal vaccinations and infections in GBS cases and population-level controls.

RESULTS

Eighteen confirmed GBS cases received vaccination in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 1.27 million 2009-10 MIV recipients and 2.80 million 2010-11 TIV recipients. Forty-four confirmed GBS cases had infection in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 3.77 million patients diagnosed with medically-attended infection. The observed-versus-expected odds that 2009-10 MIV/2010-11 TIV was received in the 6 weeks preceding GBS onset was odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-3.99; risk difference = 0.93 per million doses, 95% CI, -0.71-5.16. The association between GBS and medically-attended infection was: odds ratio = 7.73, 95% CI, 3.60-16.61; risk difference = 11.62 per million infected patients, 95% CI, 4.49-26.94. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative infection definitions and risk intervals for prior vaccination shorter than 6 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjusting for antecedent infections, we found no evidence for an elevated GBS risk following 2009-10 MIV/2010-11 TIV influenza vaccines. However, the association between GBS and antecedent infection was strongly elevated.

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt

Objective

The optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.

Methods

The model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.

Results

The model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1–29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1–5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.

Discussion

We have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.

Natural Language Processing to identify pneumonia from radiology reports

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop Natural Language Processing (NLP) approaches to supplement manual outcome validation, specifically to validate pneumonia cases from chest radiograph reports.

METHODS

We trained one NLP system, ONYX, using radiograph reports from children and adults that were previously manually reviewed. We then assessed its validity on a test set of 5000 reports. We aimed to substantially decrease manual review, not replace it entirely, and so, we classified reports as follows: (1) consistent with pneumonia; (2) inconsistent with pneumonia; or (3) requiring manual review because of complex features. We developed processes tailored either to optimize accuracy or to minimize manual review. Using logistic regression, we jointly modeled sensitivity and specificity of ONYX in relation to patient age, comorbidity, and care setting. We estimated positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) assuming pneumonia prevalence in the source data.

RESULTS

Tailored for accuracy, ONYX identified 25% of reports as requiring manual review (34% of true pneumonias and 18% of non-pneumonias). For the remainder, ONYX's sensitivity was 92% (95% CI 90-93%), specificity 87% (86-88%), PPV 74% (72-76%), and NPV 96% (96-97%). Tailored to minimize manual review, ONYX classified 12% as needing manual review. For the remainder, ONYX had sensitivity 75% (72-77%), specificity 95% (94-96%), PPV 86% (83-88%), and NPV 91% (90-91%).

CONCLUSIONS

For pneumonia validation, ONYX can replace almost 90% of manual review while maintaining low to moderate misclassification rates. It can be tailored for different outcomes and study needs and thus warrants exploration in other settings.

Challenges in comparing the safety of different vaccination schedules

As vaccine hesitancy has increased in the United States, various authors have begun proposing alternatives to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices' recommended childhood immunization schedule. Because parents may believe the safety claims made by such authors, evaluations of the safety of alternative vaccination schedules are needed. However, comparing the safety of different vaccination schedules has numerous methodologic challenges. These challenges include defining vaccination history, defining safety, appropriately modeling interactions between vaccines, and appropriately handling age effects. Failure to properly address these challenges can result in biased results.

Interim adjusted estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness - United States, February 2013

Early influenza activity during the 2012-13 season enabled estimation of the unadjusted effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine. This report presents updated adjusted estimates based on 2,697 children and adults enrolled in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (Flu VE) Network during December 3, 2012-January 19, 2013. During this period, overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) (adjusted for age, site, race/ethnicity, self-rated health, and days from illness onset to enrollment) against influenza A and B virus infections associated with medically attended acute respiratory illness was 56%, similar to the earlier interim estimate (62%). VE was estimated as 47% against influenza A (H3N2) virus infections and 67% against B virus infections. When stratified by age group, the point estimates for VE against influenza A (H3N2) and B infections were largely consistent across age groups, with the exception that lower VE against influenza A (H3N2) was observed among adults aged ≥65 years. These adjusted VE estimates indicate that vaccination with the 2012-13 influenza season vaccine reduced the risk for outpatient medical visits resulting from influenza by approximately one half to two thirds for most persons, although VE was lower and not statistically significant among older adults. Antiviral medications should be used as recommended for treatment of suspected influenza in certain patients, including those aged ≥65 years, regardless of their influenza vaccination status.

Early estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness--United States, January 2013

In the United States, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months. Each season since 2004-05, CDC has estimated the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine to prevent influenza-associated, medically attended acute respiratory infection (ARI). This season, early data from 1,155 children and adults with ARI enrolled during December 3, 2012-January 2, 2013 were used to estimate the overall effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection associated with medically attended ARI. After adjustment for study site, but not for other factors, the estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62% (95% confidence intervals [CIs] = 51%-71%). This interim estimate indicates moderate effectiveness, and is similar to a summary VE estimate from a meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trial data; final estimates likely will differ slightly. As of January 11, 2013, 24 states and New York City were reporting high levels of influenza-like illness, 16 states were reporting moderate levels, five states were reporting low levels, and one state was reporting minimal levels. CDC and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices routinely recommend that annual influenza vaccination efforts continue as long as influenza viruses are circulating. Persons aged ≥6 months who have not yet been vaccinated this season should be vaccinated. However, these early VE estimates underscore that some vaccinated persons will become infected with influenza; therefore, antiviral medications should be used as recommended for treatment in patients, regardless of vaccination status. In addition, these results highlight the importance of continued efforts to develop more effective vaccines.