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S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown J, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, 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Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huynh C, Iannarone M, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim P, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Mackay MT, Magdy M, Razek AE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Massano J, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nunes BP, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ortiz A, Osman 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Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Sivonda A, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Sligar A, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steinke S, Stovner L, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woodbrook R, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1545-1602. [PMID: 27733282 PMCID: PMC5055577 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31678-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4522] [Impact Index Per Article: 565.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. FINDINGS We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. INTERPRETATION Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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